Dry Hydrological Years Research Articles

Remotely Sensed Comparative Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Wet Periods in Distinct Mediterranean Agroecosystems

Drought is a widespread natural hazard resulting from an extended period of reduced rainfall, with significant socioeconomic and ecological consequences. Drought severity can impact food security globally due to its high spatial and temporal coverage. The primary objective of this paper consists of a comparative spatiotemporal analysis of environmental extremes (drought/wetness) through the estimation of a twelve-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI12) between three distinct vulnerable agricultural regions in the Mediterranean basin (i.e., Spain, Lebanon and Tunisia), under a climate change environment in the last 38 years (1982–2020). The added value of this paper lies in the simultaneous estimation of temporal and spatial variability of drought and wetness periodic events, paying special attention to the geographical patterns of these extremes both in annual and interannual (seasonal) time scales. The results indicated that Spain and Tunisia (western Mediterranean) exhibit similar patterns over the studied period, while Lebanon demonstrates contrasting trends. Comparing the two extreme dry hydrological years, the Spanish study area faced the highest drought intensity, areal extent and duration (SPI12 = −1.18; −1.84; 28–78%; 9–12 months), followed by the Lebanese (SPI12 = −1.28; −1.39; 37–50%; 7–12 months) and the Tunisian ones (SPI12 = −1.05; −1.08; 10–34%; 8 months). Concerning the wettest hydrological years, the Lebanese study domain has recorded the highest SPI12 values, areal extent and duration (SPI12 = 1.58; 2.28; 66–83%; 8–11 months), followed by the Tunisian (SPI12 = 1.55; 1.79; 49–73%; 7–10 months) and Spanish one (SPI12 = 1.07; 1.99; 21–73%; 4–11 months). The periodicity of drought/wetness episodes is about 20 years in Spanish area and 10 years in the Lebanese area (for drought events), whereas there seems no periodicity in the Tunisian one. Understanding the spatial distribution of drought is crucial for targeted mitigation strategies in high-risk areas, potentially avoiding broad, resource-intensive measures across entire regions.

Impact of Hydroclimatic Changes on Water Security in the Cantareira Water Production System, Brazil

The Cantareira Water Production System (CWPS), which supplies water to the most populous region in Brazil, is facing significant challenges due to hydroclimate change, thus threatening its water security. This research integrates data from climate models and field observations with hydrological modeling, aimed at quantifying trends in key variables of the hydrological cycle. The GFDL-CM4 climate model, the most suitable for the study area, was employed to generate runoff data under both current conditions and future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Our analysis reveals an increasing trend in the frequency of dry hydrological years. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Drought Magnitude (DM) confirm an increase in both the occurrence and duration of droughts in future scenarios. The runoff in all basins was reduced, causing a substantial decrease in minimum flows of 16.9%, medium flows of 11.8%, and high flows of 9.2% for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This research introduces an approach to hydroclimate impact assessment, combining rigorous data analysis with advanced modeling techniques. Our findings not only provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges faced by the CWPS, but also offer critical quantitative insights essential for developing effective public policies and adaptive strategies for sustainable water resource management.

Stable isotope composition in precipitation and groundwater of Shwan Sub-Basin, Kirkuk governorate, northeast of Iraq

Abstract Stable isotope composition of δ2H and δ18O was investigated in the water resources of the Shwan sub-Basin northeast of Iraq. The study objects conceived the possible factors that affect the stable isotopes’ composition in precipitation additionally to achieve information concerning recharge processes and estimate the groundwater recharge sources. In this study, four precipitation samples were collected at the study area for the 2020–2021 hydrological year. Thirty-two groundwater samples and one surface water sample from Lesser Zab River (LZR) were collected during the same period for two sampling seasons. The results of observed meteorological data show a very small amount of precipitation for the sampling year. This year is considered a dry hydrological year with total annual precipitation of 100.62 mm compared with the previous 40 hydrological years with total annual precipitation of 325.43 mm. The isotopic composition in precipitation was highly varied as it primarily depends on environmental conditions. The depleted values are recognized with the increasing precipitation amount, whereas the enriched values were the most affected by evaporation. Back trajectory analysis revealed that stable isotopes in precipitation are primarily influenced by air masses and moisture sources. The sources of the trajectory that came from the Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea would lead to variations in the values of precipitation stable isotope. Stable isotope values in groundwater showed that the samples for both periods are located between the East Mediterranean water line (EMWL) and global meteoric water line (GMWL) close to the local meteoric water line (LMWL) indicating that the groundwater recharge is mainly through precipitation. Groundwater recharges by an indirect recharge mechanism from the LZR, based on stable isotope similarity between depleted stable isotopes in groundwater and river water. The estimated groundwater recharge based on weighted oxygen isotopes is about 9.2% of annual rainfall infers that the recharge during the sampling year was very low. The low recharge value experiences dry weather conditions from low precipitation amounts besides increasing evaporation during the current study.

Water balance computation and water quality improvement evaluation for Yanghe Basin in a semiarid area of North China using coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 modeling

Abstract Water shortage and water pollution are two prominent issues in North China. Understanding hydrological cycle and water quality changes in response to pollution control measures is fundamental for a better water management there. Using coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 modeling, various hydrological components in Yanghe Basin in a semiarid area of North China were quantified for three typical hydrological years and concentrations of COD and TP in a national monitoring section of Yanghe were evaluated with/without pollution control measures. The modeling results show that the underground water storage of Yanghe Basin becomes depleted due to evapotranspiration compensation and groundwater utilization regardless of hydrological condition, indicating an unsustainable in-situ water resource utilization. Water quality goals set for Yanghe (COD ≤ 20 mg/L and TP ≤ 0.2 mg/L) can hardly be achieved if pollution control measures are not taken, especially for a dry hydrological year. Depending on hydrological conditions, non-point source control technology-related projects in a 109-km2 village and a 7-km river-channel wetland in mainstream of Yanghe will have a positive effect or negligible effect on water quality improvement. To meet water quality goals, implementation of three wetlands is an effective and economic way.

Suitability of a Coupled Hydrologic and Hydraulic Model to Simulate Surface Water and Groundwater Hydrology in a Typical North-Eastern Germany Lowland Catchment

Lowland river basins are characterised by complex hydrologic and hydraulic interactions between the different subsystems (aerated zone, groundwater, surface water), which may require physically-based dynamically-coupled surface water and groundwater hydrological models to reliably describe these processes. Exemplarily, for a typical north-eastern Germany lowland catchment (Tollense river with about 400 km²), an integrated hydrological model, MIKE SHE, coupled with a hydrodynamic model, MIKE 11, was developed and assessed. Hydrological and hydraulic processes were simulated from 2010 to 2018, covering strongly varying meteorological conditions. To achieve a highly reliable model, the calibration was performed in parallel for groundwater levels and river flows at the available monitoring sites in the defined catchment. Based on sensitivity analysis, saturated hydraulic conductivity, leakage coefficients, Manning’s roughness, and boundary conditions (BCs) were used as main calibration parameters. Despite the extreme soil heterogeneity of the glacial terrain, the model performance was quite reasonable in the different sub-catchments with an error of less than 2% for water balance estimation. The resulted water balance showed a strong dependency on land use intensity and meteorological conditions. During relatively dry hydrological years, actual evapotranspiration (ETa) becomes the main water loss component, with an average of 60%–65% of total precipitation and decreases to 55%–60% during comparatively wet hydrological years during the simulation period. Base flow via subsurface and drainage flow accounts for an approximate average of 30%–35% during wet years and rises up to 35%–45% of the total water budget during the dry hydrological years. This means, groundwater is in lowland river systems the decisive compensator of varying meteorological conditions. The coupled hydrologic and hydraulic model is valuable for detailed water balance estimation and seasonal dynamics of groundwater levels and surface water discharges, and, due to its physical foundation, can be extrapolated to analyse meteorological and land use scenarios. Future work will focus on coupling with nutrient transport and river water quality models.

A decision-making framework for sustainable management of groundwater resources under uncertainty: combination of Bayesian risk approach and statistical tools

AbstractDecision-making is a significant tool in water resources management applications. This work addresses the global management decision dilemma for the sustainability of the groundwater resources of a watershed: should stakeholders use groundwater for irrigation and human consumption or should they construct infrastructure, for example water reservoirs, for irrigation purposes? The former constitutes an easy but non-sustainable solution, while the latter protects the groundwater body from overpumping, avoids the associated overpumping penalties, and utilizes both surface and groundwater watershed resources. The main question arising in the second case relates to the amount of surface water that can be used taking into consideration water scarcity and potentially dry hydrological years. Therefore, this proposed decision-making framework will provide the best management solution for the water needs of an area based on the balanced use of surface and groundwater resources, considering the ecosystem sustainability and the surface and groundwater sustainability. In addition, this work can help decision-makers to examine and compare various scenarios using different approaches before making a decision regarding the cost and the capacity of a hydrologic/hydraulic project, and the varied economic charges that water table limit violations can cause inside an audit interval.

An accurate evaluation of water availability in sub-arid Mediterranean watersheds through SWAT: Cega-Eresma-Adaja

Simulation of flow processes in hyper-regulated Mediterranean watersheds is critical when examining general water demand and established ecological flows of River Basin Management Plans. Weather dynamics in the Mediterranean zone in recent decades have been characterised by a natural variation of drought cycles. In addition, exacerbated climate change proves that water fluxes must be estimated with more exhaustive models. The aim of this study is to assess the water balance of the Cega-Eresma-Adaja (CEA) watershed, including a detailed assessment of land uses and management practices to quantify agricultural water demand for the time period 2004–2014. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), given that it is a widespread tool that involves complex processes of the water cycle on a basin scale, providing information on water dynamics related to land use as a fundamental characteristic for water balance calculation. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient efficiency value, the main index of calibration and validation performance, was 0.86 for the Eresma-Adaja River and 0.67 for the Cega River. This presents a good result considering the large-scale watershed studied. Analysing dry hydrological years, we found that the estimation of ecological flows for sub-arid zones needs to consider the shallow aquifer-river relationship. During spring-summer periods, with very low flow, monitoring the shallow aquifer levels ensures a good ecological status. The study reveals that aspects such as crop rotation, soil management and their associated measures in Mediterranean basins are key factors for water resource management during drought periods. These results are expected to serve stakeholders and river basin authorities in conducting better-integrated water management practices in the watershed.

Hydrological dynamics in a small catchment with silvopastoral land use in SW Spain

Hydrological processes were investigated since the year 2000 in a semiarid rangeland with disperse cover of evergreen holm oaks. In this article results are presented on the spatial variation of rainfall in the catchment using a network of 6 raingauges. Results are also presented on soil water dynamics, which were studied under different vegetation covers and varying soil depths. Furthermore, the temporal variation of runoff generation in the basin outlet is reviewed, taking into account different timescales. The following results can be highlighted: Spatial variation of rainfall in the catchment at annual or monthly scale was low. However, large dispersion exists in the case of individual rainstorms, when the differences between the 6 raingauges varied strongly, both for daily values as well as maximum intensities. Events with high spatial variation are presumably related with small, localized storms, particularly those of high intensity and short duration, and those showing low variation are probably of frontal origin. Soil moisture presented seasonal patterns clearly dependent on factors such as rainfall or evapotranspirative demand. Spatial distribution of soil moisture was mainly affected by physiographic terrain characteristics and vegetation covers. Generally, in dry hydrological years, soil moisture was lower beneath than beyond the tree canopies, while the opposite was observed in wet years. Dry situations increase the intensity and duration of soil water deficits, enhance the evaporative demand and increment water storage capacity by covers. Channel flow in dehesas depends highly on the antecedent moisture conditions and particularly on the water content of the sediment-filled valley bottoms. If these areas become saturated, high amounts of runoff are produced during rainfall events. Under high intensity rainstorms Hortonian overland flow is rapidly generated on hillslopes producing a quick channel response. Interannual runoff variation is very high, the more frequent low rainfall years provoke very low total water flow, contrasting with less frequent years of above average rainfall, which are the ones producing high total runoff. It can be concluded that the hydrological dynamics in Mediterranean rangelands with a disperse tree cover are complex, both regarding soil water and catchment runoff, being highly variable in time. Future changes in land use or climate could affect notably the hydrological dynamics of the catchment, and hence similar upland basins. For example, a notable increase of tree cover would reduce water availability of pasture plants, particularly during dry years. A decrease of annual rainfall amounts and/or increased drought intensities, as a consequence of climate change, would enlarge periods of soil moisture deficit for pasture plants, as well as a reduction of runoff.

Flamingos and drought as drivers of nutrients and microbial dynamics in a saline lake

Waterbird aggregations and droughts affect nutrient and microbial dynamics in wetlands. We analysed the effects of high densities of flamingos on nutrients and microbial dynamics in a saline lake during a wet and a dry hydrological year, and explored the effects of guano on prokaryotic growth. Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, total phosphorus and total nitrogen in the surface waters were 2–3 fold higher during the drought and were correlated with salinity. Flamingos stimulated prokaryotic heterotrophic production and triggered cascading effects on prokaryotic abundance, viruses and dissolved nitrogen. This stimulus of heterotrophic prokaryotes was associated with soluble phosphorus inputs from guano, and also from sediments. In the experiments, the specific growth rate and the carrying capacity were almost twice as high after guano addition than in the control treatments, and were coupled with soluble phosphorus assimilation. Flamingo guano was also rich in nitrogen. Dissolved N in lake water lagged behind the abundance of flamingos, but the causes of this lag are unclear. This study demonstrates that intense droughts could lead to increases in total nutrients in wetlands; however, microbial activity is likely constrained by the availability of soluble phosphorus, which appears to be more dependent on the abundance of waterbirds.

The Ojos del Guadiana and del Gigüela springs: the recovery of a groundwater body declared “at risk”

The "Ojos del Guadiana" and the "Ojos del Gigüela" are a set of springs that provide groundwater to the respective channels under natural conditions. The first are the source of the Guadiana river, whilst the second ones are located in the final stretch of the river. From the 1980s the intense exploitation of Aquifer System 23 generated a decrease in the groundwater level, which in turn caused these springs to dry up. After the wet period of 2009-2013 there was a slow recovery of the aquifers in the Upper Guadiana, reflected in a rise in the levels, which continued throughout 2014-2015, this then changed to register a new period of piezometric decline. The "Ojos del Guadiana" reappeared in January 2012 during the period of recovery of the aquifer, whilst water in the "Ojos del Gigüela" appeared four years later, in December 2015, after two dry hydrological years and the beginning of a period of piezometric decline. Hydrogeological developments in the period of December 2009 to February 2016 resulted in the recovery process of the aquifers in the Mancha Plain due to this wet period. The time lag in the presence of water in the two sets of springs is related to the geological and hydrogeological characteristics of calcareous Pliocene aquifer, specifically with its morphology in the western sector. The piezometric evolution of the Mancha Plain in the last 7 years describes the process of partial recovery of the Upper Guadiana Central Sector, from its deepest to its shallowest levels in the sense of the direction of the natural progression of the groundwater from east to west.

Multi-objective optimization of cascade reservoirs using NSGA-II: A case study of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoirs in the middle Yangtze River, China

ABSTRACTA multi-objective optimization model of cascade reservoirs was developed to maximize the power generation and minimizie the appropriate ecological flow shortage index (AEFSI) downstream from the reservoir. Additionally, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) was used to search for multi-objective Pareto optimal solutions. The paper took the Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoirs as a case study. After validating the model, data from three typical years were used in the optimization. The results indicated that maximizing power generation by adjusting the optimal rules increased power generation by 1.07%, 0.91%, and 1.03% in normal, wet, and dry hydrological years, respectively, while increasing the AEFSI by 22.12%, 11.78%, and 14.67% (compared to real operations). The AEFSI was improved (decreased) by 21.90%, 10.27%, and 18.52% when the optimal rules favored the downstream ecology, but power generation decreased by 1.61%, 1.06%, and 2.29%, respectively, in the different hydrological years. Moreover, the results provide a set of well-distributed optimal solutions along the Pareto front that allow decision-makers to easily determine the best compromised solutions based on the trade-offs between the economic and ecological benefits. The results of this study provide guidance for decision-makers to improve the comprehensive benefits of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoirs.

DETERMINING THE NEED OF ALFALFA FOR WATER IN THE CONDITIONS OF SARAJEVO AREA (BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA)

Alfalfa has a great need for water, because it creates a huge plant mass. For this reason,yield level, similar to the other species with large green mass, primarily depends onprovided water during the growing season. Alfalfa uses water well from the prevegetationreserve in land, especially of rainfall during the growing season. In thispaper, the need for water in alfalfa for average, the most rainy and dry hydrologicalyear in the conditions of Sarajevo area was established. Evapotranspiration of alfalfa is567 mm for the most dry, 569 mm for the most rainy and 540 mm for averagehydrological year. Water deficit occurs in May, June, July and August in the amount of323.9 mm for the most dry, 178.4 mm for the most rainy and 222.1 mm for averagehydrological year. In the study area, alluvial soil is predominant (fluvisol), which is ofa light mechanical composition (sandy loam) and favorable chemical characteristics foralfalfa growing.

Computing Hydrological Balance in the Medard Mining Pit With the Help of the Water Balance Conceptual Model (WBCM)

A positive water balance is the main prerequisite for successful hydro-reclamation of residual mining pits. Under the current conditions of climate change, long dry periods occur more frequently, which may have a negative impact on the water supply to fill the pit lakes. This study deals with the hydrological balance of the Medard mining pit, which has been computed with the help of the Water Balance Conceptual Model (WBCM). The purpose of this study is to test the feasibility of the WBCM model for water balance estimation in endorheic catchments. The water contribution of the Medard mining pit’s own catchment was quantified, in order to determine if an external supply of water is necessary to fill the pit within several years. The outcomes of the study have shown that the internal water sources of the Medard catchment can hardly provide sufficient water supply, either during a normal, or during a dry hydrological year. Thus, an external water supply from the Ohre River is needed in addition to the water from the mining pits (the quality of the water from the mining pits must of course be carefully monitored). The WBCM-6 model can serve as a useful tool in hydro-reclamation of residual mining pits. However, the final performance regulations of pit lakes must be based on water management balance, including human-induced activities.

Resilience of a semi-deciduous shrub, Cistus salvifolius, to severe summer drought and heat stress.

Shrubs often form the understorey in Mediterranean oak woodlands. These shrubs are exposed to recurrent water deficits, but how they will respond to predicted future exacerbation of drought is not yet understood. The ecophysiology of the shrub Cistus salvifolius L. was studied over the summer of 2005, which was during a heat-wave superimposed on the most severe drought in the Iberian Peninsula in the last 140 years. Branch water potential fell drastically during the summer, accompanied by stomatal closure and downregulation of PSII, with a concomitant loss of chlorophyll in the leaves. A parallel increase in the ratio of light-dissipating to light-capturing pigments and the proportion of xanthophyll cycle pigments in the de-epoxidated state, along with alterations in the structure of the light harvesting complex, may have reduced the potential for damage to leaves. Substantial increases in leaf tocopherol content during high radiation may have reduced damage from free radicals. Following autumn rains, leaves of the same shrubs showed physiological recovery, indicating the resilience of this Mediterranean species, for which an extremely dry hydrological year with 45% less rainfall than average, did not prevent healthy leaf functioning in response to renewed soil moisture availability.

Rain use efficiency as affected by climate warming and biofuel harvest: results from a 12‐year field experiment

AbstractThe efficiency of a terrestrial ecosystem to use rainfall in production is critical in regulating the ecological functions of the earth system under global change. However, it remains unclear how rain use efficiency (RUE) will be altered by changes in climate and human activities such as biofuel harvest. In this study, we used RUE data from a long‐term experiment in a tallgrass prairie to analyze the effects of warming and biofuel harvest (clipping). From 2000 to 2011, experimental warming enhanced RUE in most years, with larger positive effects in normal and wet than dry hydrological years. Clipping decreased RUE in dry and normal hydrological years, but had no impact on RUE in wet years. The observed RUE responses resulted from treatment‐induced changes in both biologically ineffective (i.e., runoff and soil evaporation) and effective (i.e., transpiration) parts of precipitation. For example, litter cover was increased in warming plots, but reduced by clipping, leading to negative and positive effects on runoff and soil evaporation, respectively. The dominance of C4 species, which usually have higher water use efficiency than C3 species, was enhanced by warming, but reduced by clipping. Moreover, RUE was positively correlated with ratios of rainfall in the late growing season (June–August), when the growth of C4 plants was most active, relative to that in the other seasons. Our results indicate that RUE is positively influenced by climate warming, but negatively affected by biofuel harvest in tallgrass prairie of the Great Plains. These findings highlight the important roles of plant community structure and temporal distribution of precipitation in regulating ecosystem RUE.

Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge

This paper analyses the temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a representative recharge area of the Sierra de Gádor (Almeria, southeastern Spain) in two hydrological years. Two approaches are used to estimate daily potential recharge (PR): Approach 1 based on deriving PR from the water balance as the difference between measurements of rainfall (P) and actual evapotranspiration (E) obtained by eddy covariance; and Approach 2 with PR obtained from the dynamic pattern of the soil moisture (θ) recorded at two depths in the site's thin soil (average 0.35 m thickess). For the hydrological year 2003/04, which was slightly drier than the 30-year average, E accounted for 64% of rainfall and occurred mainly in late spring and early summer. The PR estimated by Approach 1 was 181 ± 18 mm year-1 (36% of rainfall), suggesting an effective groundwater recharge in the study area. In the unusually dry hydrological year 2004/05, E was about 215 mm year-1, close to the annual rainfall input, and allowing very little (8 ± 12 mm year-1) PR according to Approach 1. Estimation of PR based on Approach 2 resulted in PR rates lower than those found by Approach 1, because Approach 2 does not take into account the recharge that occurs through preferential flow pathways (cracks, joints and fissures) which were not monitored with the θ probes. Moreover, using Approach 2, the PR estimates differed widely depending on the time scale considered: with daily mean θ data, PR estimation was lower, especially in late spring, while θ data at 30 min resolution yielded a more reliable prediction of the fraction of total PR resulting from the downward movement of soil water by gravity. Citation Cantón, Y., Villagarcía, L., Moro, M. J., Serrano-Ortíz, P., Were, A., Alcalá, F. J., Kowalski, A. S., Solé-Benet, A., Lázaro, R. & Domingo, F. (2010) Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 737–753.

Vulnerability Analysis of the Coastal Sandy Aquifers in the East Coast of Sri Lanka with Recharge Change Consideration

Groundwater is the only source of water for domestic as well as agricultural purposes in the sand aquifer in be- tween sea and lagoon configuration typically found in the eastern Sri Lanka. This study was carried out to estimate the safe yield and assess the vulnerability of the sandy aquifer on the eastern coastal belt of Sri Lanka by rapid urbanization, agriculture and as well as climate change. A typical aquifer system was modeled as a part of a synthetic study to under- stand the sustainability of these coastal aquifers based on the observations made through a pilot field site in the eastern coastal sand stretch in Sri Lanka. Two dimensional model simulations were carried out representing 2000 m length, 22 m deep and 2 m wide model domain respectively. The safe yield of the aquifer is estimated to be 0.37 m 3 /m 2 for an average hydrological year and 0.18 m 3 /m 2 for a dry hydrological year. Water balance in the aquifer system is in equilibrium with the present recharge. However, it is important that the wells to be placed at least 750 m inland from the sea and lagoon re- spectively to avoid salt and brackish water intrusion. According to the modeling results, currently the aquifer system shows no signs of depletion or sea water intrusion. However, increase of population, increase of pumping, and reduction of recharge due to climate change can increase the aquifer vulnerability for contamination by salt and brackish water.

Modelling climate change impacts on the flood pulse in the Lower Mekong floodplains

The flood pulse is a key element characterizing the hydrology of the Mekong River and driving the high ecosystem productivity in the Lower Mekong floodplains, both in the Cambodian lowlands and the Mekong Delta in Vietnam. This paper assesses the impacts of climate change, both in terms of changed basin water balance and sea level rise, on the Lower Mekong flood pulse. The impacts were simulated by a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model using the projected changes in sea level and the Mekong mainstream discharge under the influence of climate change as boundary conditions. The model simulations projected that average and maximum water levels and flood duration increase in 2010–2049. The most consistent and notable changes occurred in the average and dry hydrological years. Sea level rise had the greatest effects in the Mekong Delta, whereas the impacts of changed basin water balance were more notable in the upper areas of the Mekong floodplains. The projected impacts were mostly opposite to those resulting from regional water infrastructure development. Higher and longer flooding could cause damage to crops, infrastructure and floodplain vegetation, and decrease the fertile land area. On the other hand, it might boost ecosystem productivity and enhance dry season water availability.

Groundwater Balance and Safe Yield of the coastal aquifer system in NEastern Korinthia, Greece

The northern coastal part of Korinthia prefecture can be characterized as an agrotourism center that has grown and urbanized rapidly. The area is formed of recent unconsolidated material consisting of sands, pebbles, breccias and fine clay to silty sand deposits. These deposits host the main aquifer system of the area, which depends on groundwater as a water resource. Groundwater is the main source for irrigation in the area. A total water volume of 29.2×10 6–34.3×10 6 m 3 yr −1 was estimated to recharge the aquifer system from direct infiltration of rainfall, streambed infiltration, irrigation return, artificial recharge via flood irrigation and lateral subsurface inflows. The present annual abstraction ranges between 39.2×10 6 and 44.6×10 6 m 3 yr −1. Groundwater abstraction in dry years exceeds renewable freshwater resources by more than 38%. Approximately 79% of the total abstraction is consumed for agriculture supply. Water balance in the coastal aquifer system is in disequilibrium; a deficit, which ranges from 4.9×10 6 to 15.4×10 6 m 3 yr −1 exists. The safe yield of the coastal aquifer system has been estimated at 37.1×10 6 m 3 yr −1 for normal hydrological year and 32×10 6 m 3 yr −1 for severely dry hydrological year. The total abstraction is greater than the recharge and the safe yield of the aquifer. The aquifer system has shown signs of depletion, seawater intrusion and quality contamination. The integrated water resources management, securing water in the future, should include measures that augment groundwater budget in the coastal aquifer of the study area.

Impact de la sécheresse sur l'évolution de la qualité des eaux du lac Mansour Eddahbi (Ouarzazate, Maroc)

L'objectif de ce travail est d'étudier l'impact d'une année hydrologique très sèche (98/99) sur la qualité physico-chimique et l'évolution de l'état trophique du lac Mansour Eddahbi. Ce lac est situé dans la région de Ouarzazate, au sud du Maroc, caractérisée par un climat aride continental, avec des écarts thermiques hiver-été importants, des précipitations très faibles et une forte évaporation. Ceci induit une réduction considérable du volume total du lac et par suite une baisse de 14 m de son niveau. À la lumière des valeurs de températures enregistrées au niveau de la colonne d'eau, le lac peut être classé dans la catégorie des lacs monomictiques avec une seule période de mélange hivernale. Le pH est légèrement alcalin. La réduction du volume d'eau au niveau du lac a engendré une augmentation de la salinité des eaux. Une corrélation significative est enregistrée entre les deux paramètres (r2 =0,60 pour n=13 et p<0,05). Un déficit marqué en oxygène dissous (7,3 mg d'O2 /l comme moyenne en surface et des valeurs inférieures à 2 mg d'O2 /l voire nulles en profondeur durant la stratification), les teneurs en Chl "a" (24 µg/l) permettent de classer le lac dans la catégorie des lacs eutrophes. Selon les teneurs enregistrées en azote (0,2 mg/l) et en phosphores (0,02 mg/l), le lac est hyper-eutrophe. Deux années auparavant, le lac était considéré comme mésotrophe (ONEP/BRL, 1998). Les conditions climatiques sévères qui ont sévi durant l'année hydrologique 98/99 ont contribué à une évolution accélérée de l'état trophique du lac.