Drug Overdose Mortality Research Articles

The risk of drug overdose death among adults with select types of disabilities in the United States – A longitudinal study using nationally representative data

BackgroundDisability is associated with increased risk of drug overdose mortality, but previous studies use coarse and inconsistent methods to identify adults with disabilities. This investigation makes use of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services disability questions to estimate the risk of drug overdose death among U.S. adults using seven established disability categories. MethodsThe longitudinal Mortality Disparities in American Communities study was used to determine disability status among a nationally representative sample of adults age ≥18 in 2008 (n = 3,324,000). Through linkage to the National Death Index, drug overdose deaths were identified through 2019. Adults in mutually-exclusive disability categories (hearing, vision, cognitive, mobility, complex activity, ≥2 limitations) were compared to adults with no reported disabilities using adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and controlling for demographic and socioeconomic covariates. ResultsThe risk of drug overdose death varied considerably by disability type, as adults in some disability categories displayed only marginally significant risk, while adults in other disability categories displayed substantially elevated risk. Compared to non-disabled adults, the risk of drug overdose death was highest among adults with ≥2 limitations (aHR = 3.0, 95% CI = 2.8–3.3), cognitive limitation (aHR = 2.6, 95% CI = 2.3–2.9), mobility limitation (aHR = 2.6, 95% CI = 2.3–2.9), complex activity limitation (aHR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.8–2.9), hearing limitation (aHR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.3–1.9), and vision limitation (aHR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.0–1.7). ConclusionsThe examination of specific disability categories revealed unique associations that were not apparent in previous research. These findings can be used to focus overdose prevention efforts on the populations at greatest risk for drug-related mortality.

Reducing Overdoses Among African American Individuals in Ohio: An Emerging Public Health Crisis

The drug overdose death rate is a major public health crisis with overdoses now being considered a leading cause of death within the United States, including in Ohio. Currently, opioid overdoses primarily involve heroin, fentanyl, and other drugs such as cocaine and MDMA laced with fentanyl. Of particular concern has been the recent demographic shift regarding those who overdose. Opioid overdoses are increasing at a disproportionately higher rate among African American individuals as compared to individuals in other racial and ethnic populations. A public health approach is needed to address the rising epidemic of opioid overdoses impacting African American individuals. Such an approach would comprise a comprehensive and coordinated strategy in providing prevention, intervention, treatment, and recovery services to achieve a sustainable public health impact.

Drug overdose mortality rates by educational attainment and sex for adults aged 25–64 in the United States before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2015–2021

IntroductionDramatic increases in U.S. drug overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids, especially fentanyl, beginning around 2014 have driven a marked progression in overall drug overdose deaths in the U.S., which sharply rose to unprecedented levels amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Disparities in drug overdose deaths by educational attainment (EA) during the fentanyl era of the drug overdose epidemic and its intersection with the COVID-19 pandemic have not been widely scrutinized. MethodsUtilizing restricted-use mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and population estimates from the American Community Survey, we estimated annual national age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) from drug overdoses jointly stratified by EA and sex for adults aged 25–64 from 2015 to 2021. State-level AAMRs in 2015 and 2021 were also estimated to examine the geographic variation in the cumulative evolution of EA-related disparities over the course of the analysis period. ResultsNationally, AAMRs rose fastest among persons with at most a high school-level education, whereas little to no change was observed for bachelor’s degree holders, widening pre-existing disparities. During the analysis period, the difference in national AAMRs between persons with at most a high school-level education and bachelor’s degree holders increased from less than 8-fold (2015) to approximately 13-fold (2021). The national widening of EA-related disparities accelerated amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and they widened in nearly every state. Among non-bachelor’s degree holders, national AAMRs increased markedly faster for males. ConclusionsThe widening disparities in drug overdose deaths by EA are a likely indicator of a rapidly increasing socioeconomic divide in drug overdose mortality more broadly. Policy strategies should address upstream socioeconomic drivers of drug use and overdose, particularly among males.

Disparities in access to opioid treatment programs and buprenorphine providers by race and ethnicity in the contiguous U.S.

BackgroundThe burden of drug overdose mortality varies by race and ethnicity, with American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN), Black, and White people experiencing the largest burden. We analyzed census block group data to evaluate differences in travel distance to opioid treatment programs (OTP) and buprenorphine providers by race and ethnicity. MethodsThe Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration provided the addresses of OTPs and buprenorphine providers. The study classified block groups as majority (≥50 %) AI/AN, Black, Asian, White, no single racial majority, or Hispanic. We classified deprivation and rurality using the Area Deprivation Index and Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes. The study applied generalized linear mixed models. ResultsAmong all block groups, the median road distance to the nearest OTPs and buprenorphine providers was 8 and 2 miles, respectively. AI/AN-majority block groups had the longest median distances to OTPs (88 miles versus 4–10 miles) and buprenorphine providers (17 miles versus 1–3 miles) compared to other racial or ethnic majority block groups. For OTPs and buprenorphine providers, travel distances were slightly greater in more deprived block groups compared to less deprived block groups. The median distance to the nearest OTPs and buprenorphine providers were larger in micropolitan and small town/rural block groups compared to metropolitan areas. ConclusionsDisparities exist in travel distance to OTPs and buprenorphine providers. People in block groups with AI/AN-majority, nonmetropolitan, or more deprived designation experience travel disparities accessing treatment. Future research should develop targeted interventions to reduce access to care disparities for individuals with opioid use disorder.

Drug supply measures and drug overdose mortality in the era of fentanyl and stimulants

BackgroundIllicitly-manufactured fentanyl and stimulants have replaced prescription opioids as the primary contributors to fatal overdoses in the United States (US), yet the street supply of these substances is challenging to quantify. Building on the foundation of prior research on law enforcement drug reports, the present study compares publicly available forensic laboratory drug report measures to identify which measures account for the most variation in drug overdose mortality between states, within states over time, and in various demographic groups. MethodsDrug reports from the National Forensic Laboratory Information System and drug overdose mortality rates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were examined for all US states and the District of Columbia, 2013–2021 (459 state-years). State- and year- fixed effects models regressed drug overdose mortality rates (in the overall population and subpopulations by sex, age, and race/ethnicity) on various drug report measures, including rates per population and proportional shares of drug reports positive for fentanyl/fentanyl-related compounds, heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine, and xylazine. ResultsFor drug overdose death rates in the overall population and nearly all subpopulations examined by sex, race/ethnicity, and age, the model including all drug report proportional measures represented the best-performing model (as identified via the lowest Akaike Information Criterion and highest within R-squared value), followed by the model including only the fentanyl/fentanyl-related compounds proportion. ConclusionsFindings support the utility of publicly available drug report composition measures, particularly the proportion of fentanyl/fentanyl-related compounds, as predictors of drug overdose mortality in the US and in various subpopulations.

Development and validation of a community-level social determinants of health index for drug overdose deaths in the HEALing Communities Study

IntroductionSocial determinants of health (SDoH), such as socioeconomic status, education level, and food insecurity, are believed to influence the opioid crisis. While global SDoH indices such as the CDC's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and Area Deprivation Index (ADI) combine the explanatory power of multiple social factors for understanding health outcomes, they may be less applicable to the specific challenges of opioid misuse and associated outcomes. This study develops a novel index tailored to opioid misuse outcomes, tests the efficacy of this index in predicting drug overdose deaths across contexts, and compares the explanatory power of this index to other SDoH indices. MethodsFocusing on four HEALing Communities Study (HCS) states (Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York and Ohio; encompassing 4269 ZIP codes), we identified multilevel SDoH potentially associated with opioid misuse and aggregated publicly available data for each measure. We then leveraged a random forest model to develop a composite measure that predicts age-adjusted drug overdose mortality rates based on SDoH. We used this composite measure to understand HCS and non-HCS communities in terms of overdose risk across areas of varying racial composition. Finally, we compared variance in drug overdose deaths explained by this index to variance explained by the SVI and ADI. ResultsOur composite measure included 28 SDoH measures and explained approximately 89 % percent of variance in age-adjusted drug overdose mortality across HCS states. Health care measures, including emergency department visits and primary care provider availability, were top predictors within the index. Index accuracy was robust within and outside of HCS communities and states. This measure identified high levels of overdose mortality risk in segregated communities. ConclusionsExisting SDoH indices fail to explain much variation in area-level overdose mortality rates. Having tailored composite indices can help us to identify places in which residents are at highest risk based on their composite contexts. A comprehensive index can also help to develop effective community interventions for programs such as HCS by considering the context in which people live.

No decline in drug overdose deaths in Norway: An ecological approach to understanding at-risk groups and the impact of interventions.

Aim: This Norwegian case study examines groups at risk of drug overdose deaths, evidence-based harm reduction interventions, low-threshold services and treatment implemented, as well as trends in drug overdose deaths between 2010 and 2021. We aimed to explore the relevance of interventions for at-risk groups and discuss their potential impact on drug overdose trends. Method/data: Using an ecological approach, we analysed the following: (1) groups identified through latent profile analysis (LPA) among a sample of 413 high-risk drug users collected in 2010-2012, supplemented with other relevant studies up to 2021; (2) published information on harm-reduction interventions, low-threshold services and treatment in Norway; and (3) nationwide drug overdose mortality figures supplemented with published articles on the topic. Results: High-risk drug users in 2010-2012 commonly engaged in frequent illegal drug use, injecting and poly-drug use (including pharmaceutical opioids), which continued into following decade. The interventions implemented between 2010 and 2021 were relevant for at-risk groups identified in the surveys. However, there was no decrease in the trend of drug overdose deaths up to 2021. While relevant interventions may have mitigated a theoretical increase in mortality, new at-risk groups may have contributed to fatal outcomes associated with pharmaceutical opioids. Conclusion: The interventions were relevant to the risk groups identified among high-risk drug users and potentially effective in preventing an increase in drug overdose trends. However, tailored interventions are needed for individuals at risk of death from prescribed opioids. Comprehensive studies encompassing all at-risk populations, including both legal and non-medical users of prescription opioids, are needed.

Evolving Trends in US Mortality from Opioid Overdose: Heroin and Beyond

ObjectiveOur objective was to explore evolving trends in US drug overdose mortality, overall and by age, sex, race, urbanization, and geography from 1999-2020. MethodsThis is a descriptive epidemiologic study. We used the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research and Multiple Cause of Death files from the National Center for Health Statistics. We used crude and age-adjusted cause of death and mortality rate ratios as measures of effects and 95% confidence limits to test for significance. ResultsFrom 1999-2020, drug overdoses caused 1,013,852 deaths and 4.3-fold increase in mortality rate ratios. Subgroup findings were sex (4.5 men, 4.0 women), race (4.6 White, 3.9 Black or African American, 4.0 Asian or Pacific Islanders, 5.1 Native Americans or Alaskan Natives), age (highest 5.6 in 25-34 years, lowest 1.1 in 75-84, and 0.77 in 85+), geography (highest 6.0 in Midwest, lowest 2.6 in West), and urbanization (highest 6.2 in non-metro, lowest 3.7 in metro). ConclusionsDrug overdoses in the United States from 1999-2020 increased 4.3-fold, with the highest increase in White and Native American or Alaskan Native populations, and Midwest and non-metro areas. The data create preventive and therapeutic challenges, including restrictions on pharmaceutical industries and enhanced efforts by health care providers in safer prescribing. Addiction care should be integrated into all clinical practices, regardless of specialty, and into undergraduate, graduate, and continuing medical education. Targeted interventions are needed to adequately assess patients and provide care. Analytic studies designed a priori are necessary to test hypotheses formulated from these data.

Interrupted time series analysis of drug overdose fatalities in service-related industries versus non-service-related industries during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2018–2021

BackgroundVariation among industries in the association between COVID-19-related closing or reopening orders and drug overdose deaths is unknown. The objectives of this study were to compare drug overdose decedent demographics,...

US Trends in Drug Overdose Mortality Among Pregnant and Postpartum Persons, 2017-2020

(JAMA. 2022;328:2159–2161) Drug overdose deaths have significantly increased in the last few years. Many factors have been proposed to explain this increase in the general population, but research is lacking in more specific populations, such as pregnant and postpartum women. This population is at high risk of fatality from overdose, but trends have not been assessed recently. This study aimed to understand changes in drug overdose deaths in pregnant or postpartum individuals, both drug-specific deaths and all deaths before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Understanding intentionality of fentanyl use and drug overdose risk: Findings from a mixed methods study of people who inject drugs in New York City.

As the proportion of drug overdose deaths involving fentanyl continues to increase in the US, monitoring exposure to and possible changes in intention to use fentanyl among people who use drugs (PWUD) is of great public health importance. This mixed methods study examines intentionality of fentanyl use among persons who inject drugs (PWID) in New York City during a period of unprecedently high rates of drug overdose mortality. Between October 2021 and December 2022, N=313 PWID were enrolled in a cross-sectional study that included a survey and urine toxicology screening. A subset of N=162 PWID also participated in an in-depth interview (IDI) examining drug use patterns, including fentanyl use and experiences with drug overdose. 83% of PWID were urine-toxicology positive for fentanyl, though only 18% reported recent intentional fentanyl use. Intentionality of fentanyl use was associated with being younger, white, increased drug use frequency, recent overdose (OD), recent stimulant use, among other characteristics. Qualitative findings suggest PWID tolerance to fentanyl may be increasing, which could result in an increased preference for fentanyl. Concern about overdose was common with nearly all PWID using overdose prevention strategies to avoid it. The findings from this study demonstrate a high prevalence of fentanyl use among PWID in NYC, despite an expressed preference for heroin. Our results suggest that the pervasiveness of fentanyl may be increasing fentanyl use and tolerance, which may contribute to an increased risk for drug overdose. Expanding access to existing evidence-based interventions such as naloxone and medications for opioid use disorder is necessary to reduce overdose mortality. Further, exploring the implementation of additional novel strategies to reduce the risk of drug overdose should be considered, including other forms of opioid maintenance treatment and expansion and government support for overdose prevention centers.

State-level homelessness and drug overdose mortality: Evidence from US panel data

BackgroundAlthough homelessness is a well-documented risk factor for drug overdose at the individual level, less is known about state-level homelessness and overdose mortality in the United States (US). MethodsThis study used 2007–2020 panel data for all US states and the District of Columbia, from the following sources: US Department of Housing and Urban Development (homelessness data); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (drug overdose death counts, population estimates, and opioid prescribing rates); Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment rates); and the National Forensic Laboratory Information System (drug seizure data). Two-way (state and year) fixed effects models regressed log-transformed drug overdose mortality rates on homelessness prevalence, in nested models adding demographic composition and unemployment measures, as well as drug supply measures. Models were weighted by state population size, and standard errors (SEs) were clustered at the state level. ResultsHomelessness prevalence was significantly and positively associated with rates of drug overdose mortality after adjusting for nationwide trends, time-invariant differences between states, demographic composition, and unemployment rates (b[SE]=0.98[0.36], p=0.009). The positive association between homelessness prevalence and overdose mortality was attenuated at higher levels of fentanyl availability (fentanyl involvement in drug seizures; interaction term b[SE]=−0.02[0.01], p=0.001). ConclusionThe positive association between state-level homelessness and drug overdose mortality suggests that policies and programs to prevent and reduce homelessness represent fundamental elements of a comprehensive response to the US overdose crisis.

Evolving trends in drug overdose mortality in the USA from 2000 to 2020: an age-period-cohort analysis.

Drug overdose deaths in the USA have increased rapidly in the past 20 years, and understanding patterns and trends in mortality is essential to develop policy responses. This study aimed to determine whether cohort patterns in mortality due to drug overdose have changed in the past two decades and assess these patterns by race and sex. The national records of accidental drug overdose death were extracted from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data for 2000-2020. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine independent effects of age, period and birth cohort on accidental drug overdose mortality. The number of accidental drug overdose deaths increased by 622% between 2000 and 2020, and age-standardized mortality rates increased nearly four-fold in both men and women. Age-period-cohort decomposition found rapid increases in mortality since 2012 in men and women, with higher mortality risk in cohorts born after 1990. The fastest increase occurred in Black Americans since 2012, and Americans of all races born after 1975 had significantly higher mortality risk, with mortality risk increasing rapidly in more recent cohorts. The peak of mortality has shifted from the 40-59 age group to the 30-40 year age group in the past decade. The burden of drug overdose mortality has shifted to younger Americans, and a new generation of Americans are at significantly higher and rapidly increasing risk of overdose death. Urgent action is needed to prevent an entire generation of young people being consigned to decades of preventable mortality. None.

Racial, Ethnic, and Sex Differences in Methadone-Involved Overdose Deaths Before and After the US Federal Policy Change Expanding Take-home Methadone Doses

In March 2020, the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) permitted states to relax restrictions on take-home methadone doses for treatment-adherent patients to minimize COVID-19 exposures. To assess whether the methadone take-home policy change was associated with drug overdose deaths among different racial, ethnic, and sex groups. Interrupted time series analysis from January 1, 2018, to June 30, 2022. Data analysis was conducted from February 18, 2023, to February 28, 2023. In this population-based cohort study of drug overdose mortality including 14 529 methadone-involved deaths, monthly counts of methadone-involved drug overdose deaths were obtained for 6 demographic groups: Hispanic men and women, non-Hispanic Black men and women, and non-Hispanic White men and women. On March 16, 2020, in response to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, SAMHSA issued an exemption to the states that permitted up to 28 days of take-home methadone for stable patients and 14 days for less stable patients. Monthly methadone-involved overdose deaths. From January 1, 2018, to June 30, 2022 (54 months), there were 14 529 methadone-involved deaths in the United States; 14 112 (97.1%) occurred in the study's 6 demographic groups (Black men, 1234; Black women, 754; Hispanic men, 1061; Hispanic women, 520; White men, 5991; and White women, 4552). Among Black men, there was a decrease in monthly methadone deaths associated with the March 2020 policy change (change of slope from the preintervention period, -0.55 [95% CI, -0.95 to -0.15]). Hispanic men also experienced a decrease in monthly methadone deaths associated with the policy change (-0.42 [95% CI, -0.68 to -0.17]). Among Black women, Hispanic women, White men, and White women, the policy change was not associated with a change in monthly methadone deaths (Black women, -0.27 [95% CI, -1.13 to 0.59]; Hispanic women, 0.29 [95% CI, -0.46 to 1.04]; White men, -0.08 [95% CI, -1.05 to 0.88]; and White women, -0.43 [95% CI, -1.26 to 0.40]). In this interrupted time series study of monthly methadone-involved overdose deaths, the take-home policy may have helped reduce deaths for Black and Hispanic men but had no association with deaths of Black or Hispanic women or White men or women.

Ensuring Access to Opioid Treatment Program Services Among Delawareans Vulnerable to Flooding.

To quantify potential flood-related access disruptions to medication-assisted treatment for opioid use disorder (OUD) among Delawareans. Spatial flood risk maps and infrastructure, services, and hazard risk, transportation networks, opioid treatment programs (OTPs) for the State of Delaware were integrated to visually display the relationship between these layers. A complex network theory-based simulation model was used to assess both direct (e.g., inundation with flood water) and indirect (e.g., isolation) impacts of floods. Delaware is at increasing risk from flooding associated with storms and sea-level rise, which can lead to sunny day flooding during high tides. Of the 18 OTPs in Delaware, 4 are expected to be flooded in a 100-year flood and 7 are expected to be severely disrupted, increasing to 9 by 2035 and to 10 by 2050, with service reachability less than 15 square miles due to flood-induced isolation. Individuals utilizing OTPs for OUDs must be able to access treatment programs regardless of external disruptors like floods. Because these programs require consistent treatment adherence and in-person oversight by clinicians, timely restoration of services and continuity of operations for treatment facilities in post-disaster settings is critical for treatment compliance. The State of Delaware has the third highest rate of drug overdose mortality in the U.S., with three-quarters of all drug-related deaths involving opioids. Impeded access to opioid treatment during a flood disaster can lead to relapse, overdose, and death. Hazard planning must develop policies and practices to address these risks.

Drug Overdose Mortality of Residents and Visitors to Cities

Background: The ongoing drug epidemic in the United States has shown that there are geographic differences in overdose fatalities. This article introduces a new way to study spatial differences in drug-related mortality, by distinguishing the fatalities of residents and visitors to a region. Methods: Using records of United States deaths from 2001 to 2020, this study examined fatal overdoses among residents and visitors to U.S. metropolitan areas. Results: The findings revealed that the drug fatality levels of residents and visitors differed from one another in many cities. These differences were most pronounced in larger metro areas, where the drug mortality of visitors was disproportionately high. Conclusions: Discussion focuses on implications and possible explanations for these findings, as well as their potential connection to classical conditioning of drug tolerance. More generally, comparing the fatalities of residents and visitors may provide a way to tease apart the roles of person-specific and location-specific contributors to overdose risk.

Racial and ethnic differences and COVID-19 pandemic-related changes in drug overdose deaths in North Carolina

PurposeTo examine racial and ethnic differences and COVID-19 pandemic-related changes in key characteristics of drug overdose deaths in North Carolina. MethodsWe used North Carolina State Unintentional Drug Overdose Reporting System data to describe specific drug-involvement, bystander presence, and naloxone administration for drug overdose deaths by race and ethnicity during pre-COVID-19 (May 2019–February 2020) and COVID-19 periods (March 2020–December 2020). ResultsFor all racial and ethnic groups, drug overdose death rates and the percentage with fentanyl and alcohol involvement increased from the pre-COVID-19 to COVID-19 period, with fentanyl involvement highest among American Indian and Alaska Native (82.2%) and Hispanic (81.4%) individuals and alcohol involvement highest among Hispanic individuals (41.2%) during the COVID-19 period. Cocaine involvement remained high among Black non-Hispanic individuals (60.2%) and increased among American Indian and Alaska Native individuals (50.6%). There was an increase in the percentage of deaths with a bystander present from the pre-COVID-19 to COVID-19 period for all racial and ethnic groups, with more than half having a bystander present during the COVID-19 period. There was a decrease in the percentage of naloxone administered for most racial and ethnic groups, with the lowest percentage among Black non-Hispanic individuals (22.7%). ConclusionsEfforts to address increasing inequities in drug overdose deaths, including expanded community naloxone access, are needed.

Longitudinal study of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders' impact on deaths of despair in the United States, January 2019 to December 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to increase in mental health problems and substance misuse. Yet, little is known about its impact on rates of deaths of despair (death by suicide and drug overdose). Our objective was to determine the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders on deaths of despair using population-level data. We hypothesized that the longer duration of stay-at-home orders would increase rates of deaths of despair. Utilizing quarterly suicide and drug-overdose mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics from January 2019 through December 2020, we estimated fixed-effects models to examine the effects of the duration of stay-at-home orders as differentially implemented in 51 jurisdictions in the United States on each outcome. Controlling for seasonal patterns, the duration of jurisdictional-level stay-at-home order was positively associated with drug-overdose death rates. The duration of stay-at-home orders was not associated with suicide rates when adjusting for calendar quarter. Findings suggest an increase in age-adjusted drug-overdose death rates in the United States from 2019 to 2020 possibly attributable to the duration of jurisdictional COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. This effect may have operated through various mechanisms, including increases in economic distress and reduced access to treatment programs when stay-at-home orders were in effect.

Modeling and forecasting age-specific drug overdose mortality in the United States.

Drug overdose deaths continue to increase in the United States for all major drug categories. Over the past two decades the total number of overdose fatalities has increased more than fivefold; since 2013 the surge in overdose rates is primarily driven by fentanyl and methamphetamines. Different drug categories and factors such as age, gender, and ethnicity are associated with different overdose mortality characteristics that may also change in time. For example, the average age at death from a drug overdose has decreased from 1940 to 1990 while the overall mortality rate has steadily increased. To provide insight into the population-level dynamics of drug overdose mortality, we develop an age-structured model for drug addiction. Using an augmented ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), we show through a simple example how our model can be combined with synthetic observation data to estimate mortality rate and an age-distribution parameter. Finally, we use an EnKF to combine our model with observation data on overdose fatalities in the United States from 1999 to 2020 to forecast the evolution of overdose trends and estimate model parameters.

Using Geographically Weighted Regression to Explore County Subdivision Level Predictors of Drug Overdose Death in Connecticut, U.S.

Deaths caused by drug overdoses have increased significantly over the past 2 decades in the U.S, becoming a public health concern. Existing empirical evidence examining the spatial association between the contextual correlates and drug overdose death rates, however, remains limited and ambiguous. Additionally, death caused by drug overdose is a multi-disciplinary issue and requires a correspondingly multifaceted and multidisciplinary approach, but there has been little research to date in the U.S. focusing on risk factors of drug overdose deaths from a crime perspective. This paper uses geographically weighted regression to examine the relationship between drug overdose death rates and contextual characteristics at the county subdivision level in the State of Connecticut. The results show that explanatory variables, such as gender, education, poverty, housing, and racial/ethnic diversity, are associated with drug overdose death rates in the state. Most importantly, the association between drug overdose death rates and all explanatory variables in our analysis significantly varied over space, highlighting the need for local and context-specific drug overdose prevention and intervention programs. In addition, this research enables health practitioners, policy makers, and police to gain a better understanding of the geography of drug overdose victimization and efficiently allocate resources to battle drug overdose deaths.