Ecosystem services provided by mangrove forests are increasingly recognised worldwide. These values have led to numerous ecosystem protection and restoration measures, including recent blue carbon economic incentives to re-establish mangroves at scale. However, our current ability to predict mangrove extent is based mainly on inundation averages (e.g. hydroperiod) or tidal planes of mature mangrove forests. This study investigates the validity of existing methods to accurately predict mangrove extent by comparing the location of existing mangroves at 27 sites (in 23 estuaries in southeast Australia) against commonly used approaches. To this aim, the downslope and upslope surface elevation limits of the mangrove species Avicenna marina were measured on-site using high-resolution RTK-GPS equipment across different estuarine typologies, including drowned river valleys, strong and weakly tidal estuaries, tidal lakes, and intermittently open/closed estuaries. These measurements were analysed against long-term (8–30+ years) tidal records to estimate inundation characteristics within the estuary. Study results indicate that the commonly used tidal plane method for predicting mangrove extent can incorrectly predict vertical extent by over 40 per cent. Likewise, hydroperiod is a poor predictor of extent as similar hydroperiods can be calculated across significantly different estuarine inundation patterns.Interestingly, the results indicate that mangrove elevations and inundation patterns are not uniform within or across estuaries, although there is uniformity across related estuarine typologies. For instance, inundation patterns in drowned river valley estuaries are more consistent (less extreme inundation and exposure events) than in estuaries with a variable tidal range, such as tidal lakes. Ultimately, this study highlights that predictions of mangrove extent should consider estuarine typology, the lifecycle of mangroves, and potential physio-adaptations to changing inundation patterns. Importantly, future tidal conditions may encourage biophysical adaptations in mangroves which may confound the extent of existing predictive techniques.
Read full abstract