Drop In Oil Prices Research Articles

The Financial Crisis Affecting the Construction Sector

Today's world is witnessing continuous development, particularly in the construction sector, which is meeting the rising population and their need for essential facilities; this is one of the reasons why construction is witnessing such development. Different crises significantly affect this sector, including the financial crisis in different countries. This paper identifies the financial crises, their categories, and the reasons for appearing them. Inflation, currency exchange fluctuations, and the drop in global oil prices are the most important reasons for the emergence of external financial crises, especially in Iraq, which considers oil an important economic resource for its budget. The unexpected global financial events led to an economic collapse that affected the construction sector. Many large projects in Iraq have been put on hold as a result of these conditions due to the country's lack of resources to address these crises. This paper aims to study and identify potential crises and potential responses and mitigation strategies for each crisis stage.

Enhancing economic sustainability in mature oil fields: Insights from the clustering approach to select candidate wells for extended shut-in

Fluctuations in oil prices adversely affect decision making situations in which performance forecasting must be combined with realistic price forecasts. In periods of significant price drops, companies may consider extended duration of well shut-ins (i.e. temporarily stopping oil production) for economic reasons. For example, prices during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic forced operators to consider shutting in all or some of their active wells. In the case of partial shut-in, selection of candidate wells may evolve as a challenging decision problem considering the uncertainties involved. In this study, a mature oil field with a long (50+ years) production history with 170+ wells is considered. Reservoirs with similar conditions face many challenges related to economic sustainability such as frequent maintenance requirements and low production rates. We aimed to solve this decision-making problem through unsupervised machine learning. Average reservoir characteristics at well locations, well production performance statistics and well locations are used as potential features that could characterize similarities and differences among wells. While reservoir characteristics are measured at well locations for the purpose of describing the subsurface reservoir, well performance consists of volumetric rates and pressures, which are frequently measured during oil production. After a multivariate data analysis that explored correlations among parameters, clustering algorithms were used to identify groups of wells that are similar with respect to aforementioned features. Using the field’s reservoir simulation model, scenarios of shutting in different groups of wells were simulated. Forecasted reservoir performance for three years was used for economic evaluation that assumed an oil price drop to $30/bbl for 6, 12 or 18 months. Results of economic analysis were analyzed to identify which group(s) of wells should have been shut-in by also considering the sensitivity to different price levels. It was observed that wells can be characterized in the 3-cluster case as low, medium and high performance wells. Analyzing the forecasting scenarios showed that shutting in all or high- and medium-performance wells altogether results in better economic outcomes. The results were most sensitive to the number of active wells and the oil price during the high-price period. This study demonstrated the effectiveness of unsupervised machine learning in well classification for operational decision making purposes. Operating companies may use this approach for improved decision making to select wells for extended shut-in during low oil-price periods. This approach would lead to cost savings especially in mature fields with low-profit margins.

COVID-19 Pandemic and the Imperative of Functional Technology Education in Nigeria: A Historical Analysis

Nigeria has recorded great losses since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in December 2019. Over-reliance on oil as source of national revenue and inadequate human capital development have impeded the country’s response to the global emergency. This study examines how technology education can stimulate a diversified economy to boost Nigeria’s capacity to withstand future crises. It employed a historical research method, comprising mainly secondary sources. The pandemic exposed the morbidity and inadequacy of Nigeria’s health facilities. In addition, a sharp drop in the global price of crude oil worsened the country’s wobbling economy during the pandemic. At the micro level, the lockdown imposed by government turned many self-employed Nigerians to idlers. The COVID-19 pandemic could have been a platform to enhance researches in medical sciences and health technology but the extant problems in the country’s higher education sector such as poor funding, lack of motivation for teaching and research, brain drain, and poor curriculum prevented meaningful innovation in that regard. The study recommends reforms in technology education to create a work force for non-oil sectors like agriculture, solid minerals, small and medium enterprises, and indigenous industries. This would stimulate self-reliance and a diversified economy to keep Nigeria unperturbed during future emergencies.

Sustainable Performance Model and Strategy: A Conceptual Framework

This study is driven by the conditions of the energy sector, particularly the "oil field service industry" which serves as the main pillar of this sector. The significant oil price drop and the need for cost-cutting among oil and gas producers shows the vulnerabilities in this sector, necessitating improvement. Generally, industries that support key commodities must exhibit strong operational performance that intricately intertwines with the corporate strategy, mitigating potential obstacles, challenges, and business risks in order to achieve sustainable performance. Thus, this research aims to investigate how to develop a sustainable performance model for the industry in helping the industries the current and future business challenges. A systematic literature review was undertaken, encompassing prior studies on sustainable business, performance, and risk management strategies. This study investigates the dynamic interaction between three primary constructs: (1) context-business sustainability, (2) content-performance management, and (3) process-strategy formulation. Finally, gaps in the existing literature were identified and several future research directions were proposed.

Volatility of World Oil Prices Towards Venezuela's Economic Crisis

The drop in world oil prices, especially in 2014, caused Venezuela to experience a crisis. This is because oil is the country's main commodity and 95% of Venezuela's exports come from oil commodities. This study uses a qualitative descriptive research method. By using the theory of International Political Economy, International Organization, and Price Liberalization, the author tries to find out the causes of the decline in world oil prices and efforts to stabilize world oil prices in this case OPEC and market mechanisms. The results of this study indicate that Venezuela's financial inability to deal with falling oil prices due to inappropriate government policies such as the Venezuelan Social Program has caused Venezuela to experience an economic crisis. This then causes further impacts in the form of a humanitarian crisis, namely poverty, hunger, unemployment, crime, and an increase in the number of Venezuelan refugees. The series of crises resulted in Venezuela becoming one of the countries that failed to overcome domestic crises.

Review on socioeconomic and sustainability of oil palm plantations among rural communities in Malaysia

Malaysian oil palm plantations contributed 2.7% of Malaysian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020 and became the world’s second largest producer of palm oil after Indonesia. Unfortunately, the expansion of oil palm plantations has always been linked to deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion. Despite the negative environmental repercussions, there is no denying that the rapid expansion of oil palm plantations has had beneficial social and economic impacts. Therefore, in this study, researchers aim to review recent studies on the socioeconomic impacts of oil palm plantations in Malaysia for the last decade (2012 – 2022). This study also identifies challenges faced by rural communities who are participated in oil palm cultivation. Since this is a conceptual paper, secondary sources, such as research articles, government reports, and published research works, are used in this study. We employed desktop study method to search the academic papers and reports from online databases. Most the papers agreed that land development for oil palm enhances socioeconomic levels, especially among rural communities by providing job opportunities, creating small businesses, reducing poverty, and improving their livelihoods. However, the involvement of farmers and planters in oil palm downstream activities and multiple crop cultivation remains low since small-scale farmers highly depend on selling fresh fruit bunches (FFB) to get their income. The drop in crude palm oil prices because of the international market has severely affected oil palm smallholders’ income. Most of previous research also believed sustainable oil palm plantation helps smallholders improve their socioeconomic conditions. The authorities may also make more efforts to promote sustainable plantations, especially among smallholders.

Crude oil price prediction using Artificial Neural Network-Backpropagation (ANN-BP) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) methods

Crude oil price prediction using Artificial Neural Network-Backpropagation (ANN-BP) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) methods

Technology Focus: EOR Operations (June 2023)

While supply disruptions and price volatility are not new to the oil and gas industry, the dramatic drop in oil prices because of the COVID-19 pandemic severely affected global enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects. To add fuel to the fire, the current geopolitical scenario leading to a surge in commodity prices and supply chain disruptions exacerbated this situation by negating any chances of recovery, at least in the short term. Concurrently, the rise in energy consumption and increasing demand for energy security worldwide warrants the need to increase global hydrocarbon production. However, rising environmental concerns with regard to greenhouse gas emissions, coupled with a decrease in the availability of easy-to-produce hydrocarbon resources, mandate the need for a gradual shift toward optimized recovery strategy in a sustainable and cost-efficient manner. As a result, current circumstances dictate focusing on low-cost and low-carbon EOR barrels to secure energy supply in the shorter term while continuing to develop innovative technologies and strategies for enhancing production in the longer term. Energy consumption for mature waterfloods increases sharply at higher water cuts primarily because of the recirculation of water through the existing swept pathways. Lower volumetric sweep in reservoirs leads to excessive water production and less oil recovery. To curb the menace of excess water production, conventional EOR techniques such as polymerflooding or in-depth conformance-control techniques are mostly implemented. Both methods have demonstrated cost savings because of reduced watercuts and reductions in CO2 generation by lowering reinjection of produced water. Additional costs of injectants, transport, and topside facilities, however, contribute to higher project costs. Early optimization measures for existing waterfloods using machine-learning (ML) approaches could enable optimal reservoir management and production by delineating reservoir heterogeneities more efficiently and predicting more-effective interwell connectivity. Furthermore, ML could contribute directly to the optimization and surveillance of EOR applications, which would subsequently affect the performance and the cost of such projects, thereby supporting the achievement of low-cost and low-carbon EOR barrels. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. SPE 214268 A Novel Approach To Combine Models To Evaluate Interwell Connectivity in a Waterflooded Reservoir With Limited Injection History by Yanfidra Djanuar, Dragon Oil, et al. SPE 210657 A Laboratory-to-Field Approach and Evaluation of Low-Salinity Waterflooding Process for High-Temperature/High-Pressure Carbonate Reservoirs by Hemanta Kumar Sarma, University of Calgary, et al. IPTC 22733 Like Cures Like Microbial Enhanced Oil Recovery in Biodegraded Crude by Thanapong Ketmalee, PTTEP, et al.

<p>The Impact of Fluctuation of the International Oil Prices on the Public Budget of Iraq (An Analytical Study During the Period from (2001 - 2019)</p>

This research aimed to Determining the extents to which oil domination over public finance in Iraq has reached and determining the proposed future scenarios ,Iraqi economy loses an amount more than a billion dollars due to lower crude oil prices, the amount of one dollar in the price of a barrel of oil produced by the compounding of the budget deficit, to be investment spending is the victim of any drop in oil prices, which means stop wheel ages and growth in Economy, It was also suggested that Mali establish a sovereign fund that is tied to the country's fiscal policy and serves as collateral for future generations, with the savings portion of oil revenues and other miscellaneous income channeled through the fiscal deficit to compensate for and act as an emergency fund. That is why the fluctuation of oil prices and its impact on the general budget was chosen, and data were collected from the Central Bank, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance and OPEC, and the study is based on a review of the various literature presented in the paper. For the purpose of the current study, the oil sector was chosen. The variables of exchange rate, gross domestic product, price per barrel, oil revenues, oil revenues, and inflation were measured with the help of data on a scale by using the multiple regression model. Indeed, the volatility of oil prices has been measured. The study concluded that there is an impact of oil price fluctuation on the general budget . The Iraqi economy loses more than one billion dollars due to the drop in crude oil prices by one dollar in the price of a barrel of oil it exports, which exacerbates its budget deficit. This paper contributes to the search for an alternative standard model that is able to effectively explain the impact of oil price fluctuations on the public budget in Iraq.This paper will be valuable for decision makers in Iraq to know the impact of oil price fluctuations on the public budget and reduce the budget's dependence on oil revenues.

Whether the Air Transport is Going through the Difficulties: Evidence from Dynamic Changes in Brent Oil Prices

In 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 caused a sharp drop in international crude oil prices. The outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict in 2022 has also had a great impact on the fluctuation of international crude oil prices. So far as an important source of energy, the fluctuation of crude oil price is associated with the entire financial market. Therefore, this paper try to find how the air transport industry will going through the dynamic changes of its main source of energy——crude oil. Then the data of Brent oil price and air transportation industry index are selected from six months earlier before the Russian Ukrainian conflict broke out, used for constructing VAR model and ARMA-GARCH model with their logarithmic sequences. Through testing and observing the constructed Var model and ARMA-GARCH model, find the impact of international crude oil price changes on the yield and volatility of air transportation industry, so that the air transport industry can acquire the initiative of energy source.

Dynamic volatility spillover between oil and marine shipping industry

Oil consumption not only makes up a large percentage of the overall operating expenses for the marine shipping industry, besides that, the tanker sector is a major carrier of global oil supply, which magnifies the relevance of oil market for the shipping industry. In this backdrop, the following study examines the volatility transmission between marine shipping industry’s tanker and dry cargo market and oil market using daily data from May 2006 to August 2021 by employing spillover index methodology. The empirical results suggest pronounced spillovers for the tanker market while lower spillovers are observed for dry cargo market, indicating the well-integrated tanker market in comparison to dry cargo sector and oil market. The volatility in oil prices contributed higher spillovers in the tanker market, and remained a net contributor. The volatility in oil prices is a significant source of the volatility transmission during periods of the sudden drop in oil prices coupled with the higher volatility in oil market, and is a net receiver during stable periods. The period of higher spillovers lasts longer for the tanker sector as compared to dry cargo sector. In the particular case of dry cargo market, the smaller (larger) the size of the vessels, the greater (lower) are the spillovers observed (From and To). Hedging turns out be irrelevant during turmoil periods, as the comovement between shipping and oil market becomes stronger. The spillovers are pronounced during the period of financial crisis, COVID-19 and 2014–2016, owing to the significant fluctuations in oil prices and a troubled period for marine shipping industry.

Defense of Human Rights and the Humanitarian Crisis at the Border of Venezuela and Colombia from the United States Policy Perspective

The aim of the article is to present the U.S. policy towards the situation on the border between Venezuela and Colombia in recent years. The main reason for the U.S. involvement was the humanitarian crisis in that area. The causes of the migrant crisis include the Maduro regime’s curtailment of democracy, the sharp drop in oil prices and demand on international markets, and the popular revolt. One of the consequences, besides the obvious, humanitarian ones, unfavorable from the perspective of international security and U.S. interests, is the attempt to destabilize the situation in Colombia and undermine its role in the inter-American world. Colombia is a traditional and loyal U.S. ally in the region. Apart from humanitarian considerations from the perspective of U.S. interests, its activity is dictated by economic, political and strategic reasons related to regional security.

The Strategy of Applying e-learning within (30) days in the Iraqi Ministry of Education in Light of the Corona Pandemic and the Deterioration of the Economic Situation for the Academic Year (2019-2020) and the Extent to which this Strategy can be Applied in the Future for Similar Cases

The outbreak of the Corona epidemic in all countries of the world has paralyzed almost all human activities, including the education sector, and the countries of the world are in trouble with the high number of injuries and deaths, including Iraq, in addition to the drop in global oil prices, which is the main source of national income in Iraq. As we are on the cusp of a new academic year, we must find solutions to continue the educational process, and to reduce the presence of large numbers of students in the classroom, in compliance with the directives of the Ministry of Health, in addition to taking into account the financial aspect of the Ministry of Education. This proposed project for e-learning achieves the desired goals of the study, first, dividing roles and tasks between the Ministry of Education and the general directorates of education and schools, and secondly, producing an electronic platform for the Iraqi Ministry of Education in record time, and third: it does not cost the Ministry of Education large sums of money.

Do Vaccines’ Announcements Cure Stock Market Volatility? Evidence From the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Markets

COVID-19 has been impacting stock markets worldwide. Yet, a scant amount of research has been done on the stock markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets. In this work, we aim to investigate whether and to what extent local and international events linked to the COVID-19 outbreak have impacted stock market volatility of the GCC countries. We model stocks’ returns of these countries between January and December 2020, decomposing the errors’ heteroskedasticity to account for main international and local events related to COVID-19. These events have been included as structural breaks and measured using dichotomous variables. Both local and international events were found to be associated with significant variations in volatility; however, local events seem to have impacted volatility to a lesser extent compared to international events. The announcement of the status of pandemic by the WHO had the greatest impact on volatility across the GCC markets, even greater than the impact associated to the drop in oil prices. The announcement of local approval of vaccine led to a reduction in volatility in UAE (ADX), Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

Assessment of the Financial Sustainability of External Debt in Iraq: an Econometric Analysis

Purpose: This paper aims to study the possibility of external debt achieving financial sustainability by learning the most important economic variables affected by external debt and possible scenarios to achieve financial sustainability. Theoretical framework: The sustainability of external debt is one of the critical issues in economies, especially emerging ones. Establishing structural projects, infrastructure projects, and economic investment is one of the essential factors in achieving financial sustainability. However, Iraq has resorted to external borrowing to confront the economic, political, and security crises represented by the drop in global oil prices. Design/methodology/approach: The research seeks to explore developments related to Iraq's foreign debt and analyze developments related to financial sustainability in the Iraqi economy. To achieve the research goal, the paper uses an analytical approach by analyzing external debt and economic variables for the period 2004-2021 and interpreting indicators of external debt and financial sustainability in Iraq for the period 2004-2021 using the econometric model. Findings: The results show that the external debt is not optimally exploited and directed towards consumer spending and imported goods. A few of them are towards projects with low income, which led to the lack of real financial sustainability in the Iraqi economy. Furthermore, the increase in reliance on public borrowing to finance the budget deficit led to a rise in the internal debt, especially in 2020, which means an increase in financial obligations on the state not only abroad but also internally, which made the revenue structure burdened with financial commitments internally and externally, as well as not directing domestic savings to contribute In building the economy and working on its consumption, which prevented the achievement of financial sustainability. Research, Practical & Social implications: This paper contributes to the search for an alternative standard model capable of effectively explaining the financial sustainability of the external debt in Iraq. Originality/value: This is one of the first papers that examine the possibility of achieving the financial sustainability of external debt in Iraq using the econometric approach.

Positive personality resources as buffers against psychological reactions to uncertainty.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12144-022-03879-1.

Wagner’s Law vs. Keynesian Theory: The Case for GCC Countries

The relationship between government expenditure and economic growth is continually discussed. In some cases, one factor affects the other, and in other cases, the relationship does not exist. This paper provides further evidence on this relationship in the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries during the period from 1992–2020. This research tests the view of Wagner’s hypothesis that economic growth positively affects government expenditure. It also tests the opposite direction, which is the Keynesian view. Utilizing a panel data regression, the results prove a weak effect of both views for the GCC economies. Government expenditure is highly affected by changes in oil prices. Some governments cut their expenditure as a result of a drop in oil prices and others maintain current expenditure levels, at least in the short run. The form of government spending and the current structure of government finance in GCC economies prevent these two views from being valid.

MENA Energy Trends, Global Energy Warming, and COVID-19 Crisis: An Investigation Analysis from Oil, Gas, Regional Economy, and Labor Productivity

With the complex presence of important natural reserves, energy is considered as the main key ingredient to facilitate economic development in the Middle East, GCC, and Maghreb regions. Expectations for a rapidly growing economy in the next decade will likely cause an increase in the fraction of energy consumed domestically, limiting what is available for export. Considered as the home of global oil and gas reserves, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the cornerstone of the global energy architecture, and the global low-carbon energy transition poses critical questions to MENA oil and gas producers. Unfortunately, as the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic sweeps across the world, growth in the MENA region was projected to fall to 2.8% in 2020, lower than the growth rates during the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2015 oil price shock. Before the coronavirus (COVID-2019), the sharp drop in oil and gas prices that began in 2015 fostered MENA hydrocarbon producers to launch ambitious economic reform programs in all regions. The main goal of these programs was not only to increase the diversification of investment sectors to boost national and regional economies but also to encourage the development of the nonhydrocarbon sector. This article argues for a new challenge investigation and analysis to figure out with current MENA policy options and future prospects, as well as the present impact of COVID-19, in addition to the public policies that encourage diversification economy sector to avoid entire dependence on oil and gas in export are dressed. It also deals with the investigation of the pressing need to create job opportunities for a large and youthful population and the new definition of the possibility of the world moving more aggressively towards low-carbon integration.

A Comparative Financial Performance of the GCC ’s Largest Banks During the Pandemic

This paper investigates the financial performance of the largest Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banks by total assets before and during the recent COVID‑19 pandemic. The purpose of the study was to identify the impact of the COVID‑19 pandemic on banks’ financial performance. Financial ratios analysis during the period 2017–2020 is employed to measure the financial performance of the largest GCC banks mainly based in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. The ratios cover key performance areas such as profitability, efficiency, liquidity, asset quality, asset risk, and expense management. Two significant developments in 2020 are the COVID‑19 pandemic and severe drop in oil prices, both of which led to a sharp drop in the region’s GDP growth rate from an average of –0.09% in year 2019 to –5.9% in 2020, which in turn is expected to negatively impact bank performance. Using paired samples t-test the research study found statistically significant results that the financial performance of all banks suffered on almost all the key parameters in 2020 compared to the earlier period which can explained by the decline in economic activity due to COVID‑19. The focus of this study and its conclusions are novel to the extent that there are no country specific studies related to impact of COVID 19 on the biggest banks in a country. Further as far as the authors know there are no studies on the topic of impact of COVID‑19 on big banks operating in the Gulf cooperation council countries. The conclusions of the study would of importance to the regulators who would not like the big banks to fail.

A Transformative State in the Wake of COVID-19: What Is Needed to Enable Innovation, Entrepreneurship, and Education in Qatar?

Economic diversification is vital in achieving sustainable economic development, especially for countries relying on nonrenewable natural resources, such as oil and gas, in the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Moreover, the global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic underscored the significance of boosting resilience to adverse shocks. Indeed, the pandemic highlighted the need to promote nonhydrocarbon sectors by strengthening the fundamental pillars of the knowledge-based economy: ICT, innovation, R&D, education, entrepreneurship, and the economic and institutional regime. The COVID-19 pandemic has also shown how important it is to mobilize these pillars in record time. Like the other GCC countries, Qatar is seen as a transformative state, suggesting that, although oil and gas provide its primary export revenue, the government has also pushed to diversify its economy toward a knowledge-based one. Indeed, in 2019, hydrocarbons dominated Qatar’s economy, accounting for 90% of government income and 80% of export profits. However, this reliance exposes Qatar to fluctuations in the global oil and gas markets. Accordingly, economic diversification has come to the top of the government’s priority list. Preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, Qatar was already in the middle of an economic transition. The economic crisis caused by the pandemic and the drop in oil prices prompted the Qatari government to increase its diversification efforts. Qatar has a solid basis for transitioning to a knowledge-based economy based on its macroeconomic stability, suitable growth rates, and good governance. However, Qatar confronts several challenges in implementing the structural changes necessary for this transition. This paper has three objectives. Firstly, it aims to present the pillars of the knowledge-based economy and their link to the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondly, the paper aims to analyze the present state of the knowledge-based economy in Qatar, including its strengths, drawbacks, and its prospect for the future. Finally, the paper presents some structural reform recommendations to enable innovation, entrepreneurship, and education in Qatar.