<p>The Impact of Fluctuation of the International Oil Prices on the Public Budget of Iraq (An Analytical Study During the Period from (2001 - 2019)</p>

Abstract

This research aimed to Determining the extents to which oil domination over public finance in Iraq has reached and determining the proposed future scenarios ,Iraqi economy loses an amount more than a billion dollars due to lower crude oil prices, the amount of one dollar in the price of a barrel of oil produced by the compounding of the budget deficit, to be investment spending is the victim of any drop in oil prices, which means stop wheel ages and growth in Economy, It was also suggested that Mali establish a sovereign fund that is tied to the country's fiscal policy and serves as collateral for future generations, with the savings portion of oil revenues and other miscellaneous income channeled through the fiscal deficit to compensate for and act as an emergency fund. That is why the fluctuation of oil prices and its impact on the general budget was chosen, and data were collected from the Central Bank, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance and OPEC, and the study is based on a review of the various literature presented in the paper. For the purpose of the current study, the oil sector was chosen. The variables of exchange rate, gross domestic product, price per barrel, oil revenues, oil revenues, and inflation were measured with the help of data on a scale by using the multiple regression model. Indeed, the volatility of oil prices has been measured. The study concluded that there is an impact of oil price fluctuation on the general budget . The Iraqi economy loses more than one billion dollars due to the drop in crude oil prices by one dollar in the price of a barrel of oil it exports, which exacerbates its budget deficit. This paper contributes to the search for an alternative standard model that is able to effectively explain the impact of oil price fluctuations on the public budget in Iraq.This paper will be valuable for decision makers in Iraq to know the impact of oil price fluctuations on the public budget and reduce the budget's dependence on oil revenues.