Land Use Drivers Research Articles

Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis in Brazilian Urban centres: an approach using Cellular Automata and Neural Networks

Abstract. During the 1970s, Brazil experienced most of its population living in cities for the first time. Historically, urbanization has been intensely related to land use and cover changes, amplifying climatic and ecological stress in recently established metropolises. This study aims to analyze, through classified Remote Sensing images and the Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Networks (CA-ANN) machine learning model, land use and land cover trends in regions that have experienced accentuated demographic growth in the decades 2000 and 2010. The methodology consists of: i) identifying areas with a high density of buildings, ii) defining the variables that drive land use change, and iii) proposing a methodology for predicting changes in the urban area. The results indicate that the urban class prediction presented high precision (≥ 0.74) and recall (≥ 0.86) indices. Forest class also presented a high precision score (≥0.72), showing an elevated prediction hit rate. Furthermore, the proposed methodology improved the results obtained in previous works for the same cities, presenting higher Kappa values in all cases.

Towards large-scale analyses of settlement patterns in urbanizing landscapes—findings of first studies for India, Egypt, and China

Improved ability to assess and categorize the spatial characteristics of settlement patterns is required for a deeper understanding of how urbanization is driving land use and land cover transformation and its effects. Two approaches to the globally available settlement maps of the World Settlement Footprint 3D support a detailed assessment of spatial characteristics of settlement patterns in rural to urban landscapes and across scales: graph-based spatial network analysis and elements of fractal theory. Based on first comprehensive tests for the Punjab (India), the Nile Delta (Egypt) and the North China Plain, the results of our study suggest that the presented methods allow a quantitative and qualitative characterization and comparison of settlement patterns between different regions of the world. The approache allows to generate standardized baseline data for arbitrary regions in the world to analyze structuring principles of settlement hierarchies (e.g., self-organized fractal geometries) and their dependence on - or interaction with - cultural, political, socioeconomic, or environmental conditions.

Assessing Land Use Ecological-Social-Production Functions and Interrelationships from the Perspective of Multifunctional Landscape in a Transitional Zone between Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Loess Plateau

Investigating the evolution and drivers of multifunctional land use is essential for sustainable land management and regional biological conservation. This research focuses on the Hehuang Valley, where we developed an “ecological-social-production” evaluation system for assessing land use multifunctionality from the perspective of multifunctional landscape. Leveraging Geographic Information System technologies, we conducted a quantitative analysis of spatiotemporal variations in multifunctional land use across the valley in recently twenty years. Correlation coefficients were employed to identify trade-offs and synergies among various land use functions. Additionally, geographical detector and grey relational analysis models were utilized to pinpoint the factors influencing spatiotemporal changes in land use functions during the specified period. The results showed that: (1) During the period, the overall multifunctionality of land use in the Hehuang Valley exhibited an increasing trend. The economic production function of the land showed the highest growth, while the ecological and social functions showed lower growth. (2) In most areas of the Hehuang Valley, there was a positive correlation between social and economic production functions and a negative correlation between social and ecological functions, as well as between economic production and ecological functions. (3) Natural conditions were the main factors of spatial variation of land use comprehensive functions, but human factors, including land use intensity and the rate of farmland conversion to non-agricultural uses, were the primary drivers of temporal changes in multifunctional land use. The findings provide valuable references and scientific support for policymakers in optimizing land use and multifunctional landscape conservation.

Modelling the drivers of land use and land cover change of the great Amanzule wetland ecosystem to inform the development policy of the southwestern oil-rich region of Ghana

This study focused on the current and future drivers of land-use change and its impact on the Amanzule wetland. It suggests policy implications for reviewing and strengthening existing policies for sustainable land use. This study employed remote sensing and GIS techniques, including participatory rural appraisal techniques. The administration of questionnaires and focus group discussions were conducted in the Ellembelle and Jomoro municipalities, where the Amanzule wetland provides economic and social services. The results showed increased land use over the last 32 years driven by various drivers, including food crop production, rubber plantations, oil and gas establishments, and infrastructure development. The study further revealed that these drivers could influence land-use change in 18 years (2018–2036). Urbanisation, cropland, rubber plantations, and shrubland will drive land-use change in the study area between 2036 and 2054. The Amanzule wetland area is expected to decrease from 272.34 ha in 2018 to 210.60 ha by 2036. The wetland area is expected to further decrease from 210.60 ha in 2036 to 174.33 ha by 2054. Other land use classes, such as mangrove and swamp forests, are also expected to decrease within the same period. The study recommends advocating for a wetland policy, enforcing the Land Use and Spatial Planning Act 925 and the Petroleum Exploration and Production Act 919 for sustainable development.

Changing Pattern and Drivers of Land Use and Land Cover in Bagmati Province of Nepal

Land use and land cover (LULC) represents the physical component of the Earth's environment, and often changes as a result of natural and anthropogenic activities. This study carried out changing patterns and orientations of LULC types of Bagmati province of Nepal by using satellite images between 1996 and 2016. The study applied a classification scheme through support vector machines (SVM) for the period from 1996 to 2006, and 2006 to 2016. Our study explored that built-up area expansion was the major change witnessed which increased from 85.25 km2 in 1996 and sharply increased and labeled 250.06 km2 in 2016. Similarly, the forest land of the province increased by 329.02 km2 between 1996 and 2016. The status of cultivated land was found slightly decreasing trend, which was noted at 6113.50 km2 in 1996 and labeled at 5725.82 km2 in 2016. The shrubland of the province declined by 272.03 km2 from 1851.67 km2 in 1996 to 1579.64 km2 in 2016. However, the status of snow/ ice cover found at fluctuated form, which was noted 774.27 km2 in 1996, 1297.43 km2 in 2006, and 828.92 km2 in 2016. The increasing population trend is the main driver of the high rate of built-up area expansion and contraction of the cultivated land. Community forestry programs highly supported the expansion of forest cover. The proper implementation and improvement of the existing policy are the major concerns for sustainable LULC management in the province.

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of Urban–Agricultural–Ecological space in ecologically fragile areas: A case study of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Ecologically fragile areas, which are vulnerable to human disturbances, are facing development dilemmas due to the contradiction between economic development and environmental degradation. Examining the driving mechanism and future trends of land use transitions can inform territorial planning and land use policies to address the contradiction. However, research into the mechanisms governing the interaction between ecological and social factors driving land use transitions in ecologically fragile areas is currently limited. Considering the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (URYREB), a typical ecologically fragile area in China, as an example, this study discussed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of Urban-Agricultural-Ecological Space. The results indicated that ecological factors influence the direction, location, and scale of spatial evolution, while social factors dominate the direction and scale of spatial evolution. The interaction between ecological and social elements drives spatial evolution due to the endogenous development needs of the social-ecological system (SES), in conjunction with external policy guidance and economic development. In the future, urban function space may continue to expand and threaten surrounding agricultural function space, thus, corresponding land use policies are necessary to ensure food security. This study unveils the impact of multifactor interactions on land use transitions and offers insights for optimizing territorial space planning in ecologically fragile areas.

Barriers and opportunities to agrihood development in growing cities of the Rocky Mountain region: A comparative case study

Rapid urbanization and peri-urban development are driving land use change across the globe, result­ing in lands being converted from agricultural uses to housing development. Sustainable, multifunc­tional land use in urban and peri-urban areas is needed to balance the requirements of producing food in a way that protects environmental resources and of providing housing to a growing population. An agrihood is a planned development model that incorporates food production within a community to help address goals of nutritious food security while providing social, economic, and environmental benefits. Agrihoods may offer an alternative land use for integrating food production in new housing developments for the sustainable development of rapidly urbanizing cities. A com­parative case study, using semi-structured, qualita­tive interviews with key informants from two cities (Bozeman, Montana, and Longmont, Colorado), highlighted four key barriers to agrihood develop­ment in two cities in the Rocky Mountain region of the U.S: labor; ownership and governance struc­tures; resource availability; and land use regulation. Concerns for water and land resource availability reflect general barriers to agricultural expansion in the Rocky Mountain region, while the other identi­fied barriers reflect the structural and legal limita­tions preventing agrihood development and expan­sion. To reduce these barriers, policy interventions and incentives provided at municipal, state, and federal levels, informed by community advocates in support of local food production, will be essential.

Land use and land cover changes and their driving forces in selected forest reserves in Central Tanzania

Miombo woodlands benefit humans in a variety of ways, including by providing food and ecosystem services. However, Tanzania's Miombo woodlands are declining due to ever-increasing unsustainable human activities. This study used landsat images for the years 1996, 2006, and 2021 to quantify the extent of land use and cover change in the Mgori and Minyughe forest reserves of the Singida region in Central Tanzania. We conducted interviews with 154 villagers living near the forest reserves to determine the drivers of land use and cover change. The findings showed that increased cultivation, illegal settlements, forest harvesting for timber, charcoal production, and livestock grazing are the primary drivers of land use and cover changes. Over the study period, cultivated land in the Mgori forest reserve increased by 33.56%, settlements by 32.67%, and bushland by 0.52%, while woodlands and grassland decreased by −0.60% and −0.22%, respectively. In the Minyughe forest reserve, cultivated land has grown by 23.81%, scattered cultivation by 16.79%, settlements by 6.58%, and water by 1.02%. During the same time period, significant loss occurred in woodland with a dynamic index of (−3.50%), bushland (−0.75%), grassland (−0.40%), and seasonally inundated grassland (−1.86%). User accuracy was highly reliable in cultivated land, bushland, woodland, and grassland cover. The overall Kappa coefficient values provided substantial accuracy for a specific land cover category. In order to combat deforestation and forest cover loss, the study recommends that the Tanzanian government strengthen conservation in both forest reserves.

Tracking Land-use Trajectory and Other Potential Drivers to Uncover the Dynamics of Carbon Stocks of Terrestrial Ecosystem in the Songnen Plain

Land-use change is an important factor affecting terrestrial carbon balance, and it is crucial to explore the response of terrestrial carbon stocks to land-use change, especially in the Songnen Plain, which faces a fierce conflict between the rapid growth of production activities and ecosystem degradation. In this study, we measured soil organic carbon and vegetation biocarbon stocks in the Songnen Plain based on IPCC-recommended methodologies, and explored the characteristics of carbon stock changes in land-use trajectories, land-use drivers, and specific land-use change scenarios (cropland cultivation, returning cropland to forests, the expansion of land for construction, deforestation, greening, and land degradation). The results showed that soil organic carbon stock in the Songnen Plain decreased by 1.63 × 105 t, and vegetation biocarbon stock increased by 2.10 × 107 t from 2005 to 2020. Human factors and natural factors jointly contributed to the land-use change, but the extent of the role of human factors was greater than that of natural factors. The increase in land-use trajectory led to the decrease in soil organic carbon stock and the increase in vegetation biocarbon stock. There was no difference in the effects of human-induced and natural-induced land-use changes on vegetation biocarbon stocks, but the effects on soil organic carbon stocks were diametrically opposite, increasing by 43.27 t/km2 and decreasing by 182.02 t/km2, respectively. The reclamation of arable land, returning cropland to forests, and greening led to a net increase in terrestrial carbon stocks (+813,291.84 t), whereas land degradation, deforestation, and land-use expansion led to a decrease in terrestrial carbon stocks (−460,710.2 t). The results of this study can provide a reference for the adjustment of land-use structure and the increase in terrestrial carbon stock in the Songnen Plain.

Prediction of mangrove recovery in natural protected areas of the Yucatan Peninsula

Natural protected areas (NPAs) in the Yucatan Peninsula favour the conservation of mangrove forests, which are valuable ecosystems for their provision of ecosystem services. However, mangroves are vulnerable to destruction due to natural and anthropogenic pressures. Therefore, it is important to assess their spatial and temporal dynamics and the potential for deforestation and recovery of cover. In this study, we analyse and model mangrove forest cover change in six NPAs of the Yucatan Peninsula by 2025. Predictions were made using the cellular automata method (CA-Markov) based on attributes that drive rates of change (obtained Kappa coefficients between 0.78 and 0.91). Anthropogenic development was the most dominant potential driver of land use and land cover change in all NPAs except the Flora and Fauna Protection Area-Yum Balam. During the period 2005–2015, the Biosphere Reserves-Petenes and Celestún showed the greatest mangrove loss, followed by the Flora and Fauna Protection Area-Nichupté. These processes changed for the simulated period (2015–2025), where an increase in mangrove cover is projected in these protected areas. Flora and Fauna Protection Area-Términos is the only protected area where a projected transition of mangroves to anthropogenic development has been identified. Therefore, it should be considered an area vulnerable to mangrove transformation and loss.

Spatiotemporal analysis of land use/cover change pattern and population growth in Ngawi Regency

Many factors drive land use and land cover change (LULC) including biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Since Ngawi Regency is one of the areas passed by the toll road, in this study we selected Ngawi as the study area to provide an understanding of the land use/cover dynamics caused by economic factors. This study aims to (1) analyse the distribution of land use/cover change before and after the toll road exists and (2) investigate its relationship with population growth. Data on land use/cover was visually interpreted from satellite imageries (2012 and 2020). Population data was taken from the regional statistics bureau. LULC was detected using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results show that rice fields dominated land use (44.43% and 42.71% of all existing land use in 2012 and 2020, respectively). A land conversion from a rice field to a toll road has been observed covering 45.45 Ha. Although there was an increase in population from 2012 to 2015, the population number gradually decreased from 2016 to 2020. This result indicates that despite the existence of a toll road, it has less relation to the population dynamic in the study area in which other factors may play a role.

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Land Use and Cover Change in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin during 2000–2020

Exploring the mechanisms that drive land use and cover change (LUCC) is essential for informing the formulation and implementation of effective policies aimed at optimizing land use patterns. In this study, we examined the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC within the Lancang–Mekong River Basin (LMRB) using Globeland30 data for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Firstly, we analyzed the quantitative characteristics of LUCC within the LMRB in terms of the value of change and rate of change. Additionally, we investigated the converting characteristics of LUCC within the LMRB by employing land use transition matrices and land use transition probability matrices. Furthermore, we depicted the spatial distribution of LUCC within the LMRB through land use mapping and statistical analysis. The results indicate a substantial decline in forests, coupled with a notable expansion in cultivated land. Given the vital role of forests as carbon sinks, reforestation can enhance ecological services and address challenges related to climate change. Converting cultivated land to forests is an effective human intervention promoting forest transition. This study applies binary logistic models to explore the mechanisms that influence the conversion from cultivated land to forests. The results reveal that slopes ranging from 5° to 15° have the lowest probability of conversion, whereas distances between the cultivated land and the nearest tourist attraction ranging from 9 km to 18 km have the highest probability. Moreover, the conversion process is positively associated with traffic conditions and significantly influenced by human interventions. Within the study area, China, Laos, and Myanmar show a tendency to convert cultivated land into natural LULC types, while Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam tend to encroach on cultivated land and expand artificial surfaces. Promoting ecological restoration in the LMRB requires cooperation among these countries.

Community-centred scenarios development for water–energy–food security on Zanzibar

Small developing islands demonstrate strong social–ecological interactions as well as a high level of exposure to climate-related effects, which can result in intense land use pressures. Scenario methodologies are useful for reflecting on how competing pressures interact when planning for a more sustainable future. In small islands, local knowledge is integral to the development of scenarios because of the close connection between people and local environments. However, local communities are often underrepresented in scenario development processes. This study provides a methodological example of how local knowledge can be used to create scenario themes. Ten community participatory workshops were hosted on Zanzibar (n = 142), where a water–energy–food framework was used to examine impacts of environmental change on resource security. Major drivers of land use and land cover change affecting water–energy–food security were identified; these include population growth, development and climate change. Solutions to observed challenges formed three coherent scenario themes, centred on adaptation, ecosystem health and sustainable settlements. Findings support the idea that communities need space to frame their resource challenges for sustainability planning to work at the appropriate scale.

Land Use and Cover Change in Watersheds within Mining Tenements in Agusan Del Norte, Philippines

Mining is widely regarded as a key driver of land use and land cover changes, especially in watersheds where it operates. However, when conducted responsibly, mining can also contribute to landscape conservation and protection. This study analyzed land use and cover changes within watersheds in mining tenements from 2000 to 2020 using a combination of supervised and unsupervised satellite image classification techniques. Results indicated that water bodies, croplands, and forestlands decreased by 5.87%, 84.95%, and 4.08%, respectively, while built-up areas expanded by 577.33%. Water bodies showed an increase where areas near drainage systems were opened or repurposed. Barren land surged, largely due to road construction and development activities. Binary logistic regression identified distance from roads and elevation as the most influential factors driving these changes, with coefficients of -3.729 and 2.775, respectively. Interestingly, mining activities were found to be non- significant contributors to land use and cover change during the study period.

The Extent Of Land Use Changes In Nnewi Metropolitan Area, Anambra State And It’s Planning Consideration

One of the prime prerequisites for better use of land is information on the existing land use patterns and changes in land cover. The land use dynamics of the metropolitan areas present complex challenges and opportunities for sustainable urban development. One major factor that influences effective land use planning and sustainable development but has not been adequately addressed is the absence of a database on the rate of urban growth in most developing countries, Nigeria inclusive. This study focuses on the trend of land use change in Nnewi metropolitan area, which has accelerated the main driver of land use and land cover change with a concomitant effect on the environment. It relied on data generated from remote sensing and geographic information systems to create the map and examine the land cover change in the study area. The classification of land cover using LANDSAT data and land cover transitions for 30 years (1993–2023) were mapped, and the net land cover change was computed. The results showed an increase in the urban built-up area, ranging from 2.24% in 1993 to 20.34% in 2023. The dispersion pattern revealed a large concentration of the built-up spaces to be in the northern region, and the expansion continued from west to south and south-east. The study recommends the need for urban planners to decentralize urban planning and development control with adequate provision of affordable urban facilities at the peripheries of cities in Nigeria. Furthermore, massive integration of green infrastructure in built-up areas is required to mitigate the effects of vegetation loss in the area.

Enhancing Governance Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa Can Bolster Climate Mitigation and Food Security

The sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region has experienced substantial population growth over the past decades, accompanied by severe hunger and environmental degradation. Underperforming governance is a major driver of unsustainable agricultural production and land use in SSA. The impacts of governance performance on food security and the environment in SSA require better understanding by considering socioeconomic and biophysical dynamics. Using an agro-economic dynamic optimization model, we investigate the impacts of governance performance on land use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and food security in the SSA region by 2050. Our findings indicate that strong governance could lead to less deforestation, thus reducing GHG emissions in the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector. Strong governance could also improve food security, with higher agricultural productivity, lower food prices and food expenditure share, as well as higher self-sufficiency. These findings highlight that those efforts should extend beyond specific agricultural and environmental measures and promote integrated governance to achieve long-term synergies between food and environmental security in SSA.

The Goldilocks Zone for maize agriculture and the settlement and abandonment of the West Tavaputs Plateau

Between 2100 and 500 BP, maize farming spread throughout the American Southwest, driving changes in land use patterns and relative increases in the number of archaeological sites, which is commonly interpreted as increases in population. In the context of the Southwest, with its variable topography and limited water sources, the locations suitable for productive maize agriculture are limited. Higher elevation locations often have a greater abundance of water, both in the form of precipitation and perennial water sources but lack the growing season lengths required for maize farming. Lower elevation locations have the long growing seasons required for maize, but often have higher evaporation rates corresponding with higher temperatures, and thus decreased soil moisture retention. The relationship between elevation and maize agriculture is well recognized, and locations where both growing season length and moisture requirements can be met serve as a Goldilocks Zone in which maize farming is possible. Here, we use a regional approach to model the Goldilocks Zone for maize farming in Utah, and then contextualize patterns of settlement and abandonment on the West Tavaputs Plateau (WTP) in east-central Utah. We use archaeological sites with direct evidence of maize cultivation, modern growing degree days estimates, and modern estimates of moisture abundance to bracket the prehistoric maize farming niche in Utah. Then, we apply the model to archaeological data from the WTP to test hypotheses derived from the Ideal Free Distribution model about the effects population and precipitation changes had on prehistoric land use patterns of settlement and abandonment, and whether the patterns of settlement and abandonment differ from one another. We find that a) population drives land use patterns in the WTP, but not in the way we originally hypothesized, suggesting there is an important decision variable missing from our model, which may pertain to the specific topographic setting of the WTP and the distribution of its water sources, b) precipitation has no effect on land use patterns suggesting that maize agriculture on the WTP was dependent on irrigation, and c) that patterns of settlement and abandonment seem to mirror each other.

Towards understanding climate change: Impact of land use indices and drainage on land surface temperature for valley drainage and non-drainage areas

The continuous increase of urbanization and industrialization brought various climatic changes, leading to global warming. The unavailability of meteorological data makes remotely sensed data important for understanding climate change. Therefore, the land surface temperature (LST) is critical in understanding global climate changes and related hydrological processes. The main objective of this work is to explore the dominant drivers of land use and hydrologic indices for LST in drainage and non-drainage areas. Specifically, the relationship between LST changes, land use, and hydrologic indices in Northeast Qena, Egypt, was investigated. The Landsat 5 and 8 imagery, Geographic Information System (GIS), and R-package were applied to identify the change detection during 2000–2021. The normalized difference between vegetation index (NDVI), bare soil index (BSI), normalized difference built-up, built-up index (BUI), modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), and soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) were employed. The non-drainage or mountain areas were found to be more susceptible to high LST values. The comprehensive analysis and assessment of the spatiotemporal changes of LST indicated that land use and hydrologic indices were driving factors for LST changes. Considerably, LST retrieved from the Landsat imaginary showed significant variation between the maximum LST during 2000 (44.82°C) and 2021 (50.74°C). However, NDBI has got less spread during the past (2000) with 10–13%. A high negative correlation was observed between the LST and NDVI, while the SAVI and LST positively correlated. The results of this study provide relevant information for environmental planning to local management authorities.

Predicting priority management areas for land use/cover change in the transboundary Okavango basin based on machine learning

Remote sensing and modelling of land use/land cover (LULC) change is useful to reveal the extent and spatial patterns of landscape changes at various environments and scales. Predicting susceptibility to LULC change is crucial for policy formulation and land management. However, the use of machine learning (ML) for modelling LULC change is limited. This study modelled LULC change susceptibility in the Okavango basin using ML techniques. Areas with high LULC change susceptibility are termed priority management areas (PMAs) in this study. Trajectories of LULC change between 1996 and 2020 are derived from existing LULC change maps of the Okavango basin. Overlay analysis is then used to detect patches of LULC change transitions. Three LULC transitional categories are adopted for modelling PMAs, namely 1) from natural to anthropogenic classes (Category A); 2) from anthropogenic to natural classes (Category B); and 3) from natural to another natural class (Category C). An ensemble of ML algorithms is calibrated with categories of LULC change and social-ecological drivers of change to produce maps showing the susceptibility of LULC change in the basin. Thereafter, thresholding is done on probability maps of susceptibility to LULC change based on the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity (max SSS) to delineate PMAs. Results for trajectories of LULC change indicate that anthropogenic activities (croplands, built-up areas, and barelands) generally expanded, displacing natural areas (wetlands, woodlands, water, and shrubland) from 1996 to 2020. Regarding PMAs, anthropogenic-related PMAs (Category A ∼34 560 km2) covered a larger area compared to the natural ones (Categories B∼33 407 km2) and (Categories C∼15 040 km2). The findings of this study emphasize the value of ensemble ML modelling in identifying PMAs and guiding transboundary land use planning. Overall, this study highlights the role of anthropogenic activities in driving land use changes in Transboundary Drainage Basins (TDBs) and suggests a need to promote sustainable practices in predicted PMAs through comprehensive planning to ensure water availability in the Okavango basin.

Unveiling the economic and environmental impact of policies to promote animal feed for a circular food system

Feeding animals with low-opportunity-cost feed (LCF) such as agricultural residues and by-products, and better use of local feed resources are discussed as strategies for transitioning towards more circular food systems. This study incorporates technical characteristics of livestock production into a global economic model to investigate the economic and environmental effects of these circular food system transitions in the European Union (EU27) in relation to the policies used to reach them. We compare the impact of LCF stimulating subsidies, budget-neutrality and import tariffs stimulating domestic sourcing. Providing only subsidies increases circularity and agricultural wages (0.1 to 0.3%), but also animal production (0.1 to 1.5%) with negative indirect effects on land use (0.3 to 1.1%) and emissions (1.3 to 8.0%). Promoting the use of LCF through budget-neutral subsidies and domestic feed sourcing through import tariffs, decreases animal production (-0.1 to -1.6%) and GHG emissions in agriculture (-0.4 to -6.0%). Synergy effects from subsidising DDGS, a biofuel by-product used as feed, increase biofuel production, positively contributing to lower GHG emissions (-0.3 to -0.6%) in 2030. However, budget-neutrality drives land use up (0.1 to 0.5%) while decreasing agricultural wages (-0.1 to -0.3%). This calls for complementary policies to mitigate drawbacks and enhance benefits of a more circular agri-food system in the EU27 in 2030.