Drivers Of Population Dynamics Research Articles

Mismatched diets: defining the nutritional landscape of grasshopper communities in a variable environment

AbstractAnimal populations must be able to acquire an adequate amount of nutrients to persist regardless of what environment they are in. In highly variable environments, such as drylands where food sources are limited, this potential mismatch between physiological demands and what is available in the environment is accentuated. For herbivores, the balance of macronutrients (protein and carbohydrate) is particularly important and both nutrients are highly variable in plants both spatially and temporally. Whereas it is known that many herbivores will forage multiple plants to achieve an optimal nutritional ratio (termed the intake target), it is less known how herbivores with different life history strategies address this in variable environments. In this study, we measured the intake targets of three grasshopper species with differing life history strategies, two migratory and one non‐migratory, at three locations in New South Wales, Australia. We measured nutrient variation in plants spatially and temporally by sampling three different locations and repeated the measurement twice for one of these locations. At all three locations and both times, host plant protein differed substantially but carbohydrate content remained constant. The non‐migratory grasshopper species shifted their intake target, presumably to redress nutrient imbalances. On the other hand, the two migratory grasshopper species largely maintained the same intake target, even when in a nutritionally suboptimal environment. These results suggest that non‐migratory species are likely more limited in their capacity to forage for optimal diets and may rely more on digestion to survive in nutritionally suboptimal locations. In contrast, migratory grasshoppers may migrate to obtain the nutrients they need instead of redressing imbalances locally. Therefore, a strong metapopulation structure may aid in the persistence of migratory species at larger spatial scales. Since herbivores, especially insects, are important from nutrient cycling to food chains, understanding how populations persist in nutritionally variable environments is important to the overall ecosystem functioning. Further research should consider how nutritional demands drive population dynamics and how it changes with life history strategies.

Revealing environmentally driven population dynamics of an Arctic diatom using a novel microsatellite PoolSeq barcoding approach.

Ecological stability under environmental change is determined by both interspecific and intraspecific processes. Particularly for planktonic microorganisms, it is challenging to follow intraspecific dynamics over space and time. We propose a new method, microsatellite PoolSeq barcoding (MPB), for tracing allele frequency changes in protist populations. We successfully applied this method to experimental community incubations and field samples of the diatom Thalassiosira hyalina from the Arctic, a rapidly changing ecosystem. Validation of the method found compelling accuracy in comparison with established genotyping approaches within different diversity contexts. In experimental and environmental samples, we show that MPB can detect meaningful patterns of population dynamics, resolving allelic stability and shifts within a key diatom species in response to experimental treatments as well as different bloom phases and years. Through our novel MPB approach, we produced a large dataset of populations at different time-points and locations with comparably little effort. Results like this can add insights into the roles of selection and plasticity in natural protist populations under stable experimental but also variable field conditions. Especially for organisms where genotype sampling remains challenging, MPB holds great potential to efficiently resolve eco-evolutionary dynamics and to assess the mechanisms and limits of resilience to environmental stressors.

Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents

Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

Decomposing fecundity and evaluating demographic influence of multiple broods in a migratory bird

Relevance of breeding season fecundity as a driver of population dynamics has been highlighted by many studies. Despite that, knowledge about how brood type specific (i.e. first, second or replacement) fecundity affects demography of multiple-brooded species is limited. In fact, estimation of brood type specific fecundity is often challenging due to imperfect detection of nesting attempts. We examined the demographic contribution and the feedback on population density of different components of fecundity, along with other vital rates, in a facultative multiple-brooded migratory bird. We used a novel formulation of a fecundity model that allows incorporating reproductive data for which information on the type of brood was unknown in some cases, and embedded it into an integrated population model (IPM) to obtain consensual estimates of all demographic rates, including brood type specific fecundities, reproductive success probabilities and proportion of breeding pairs that performed a second or replacement brood. We then conducted transient life table response experiments on IPM estimates to account for non-stationary environments. We applied the model to two 20-year datasets collected in a Swiss and a German local population of wrynecks Jynx torquilla. Brood type specific fecundities and temporal patterns of brood type specific probabilities of success, number of successful and unsuccessful first broods, probability of starting a second or a replacement brood and proportion of pairs that performed a second or a replacement brood differed between the two populations. However, changes in immigration rate and apparent survival were the dominant contributors to temporal variation and large sequential changes in realized population growth rates in both populations. In the Swiss population we also found that second brood fecundity declined when population size increased. Our study provides insight into the reproductive processes that affect population dynamics and mediate density-dependent fecundity in a migratory bird. In addition, the analytical approach proposed can be used in other studies of multiple-brooded species to maximize the use of available fecundity data through the estimation of unknown brood types, thus favouring a better understanding of the demographic contribution of brood type specific fecundity.

Dispersal in heterogeneous environments drives population dynamics and control of tsetse flies.

Spatio-temporally heterogeneous environments may lead to unexpected population dynamics. Knowledge is needed on local properties favouring population resilience at large scale. For pathogen vectors, such as tsetse flies transmitting human and animal African trypanosomosis, this is crucial to target management strategies. We developed a mechanistic spatio-temporal model of the age-structured population dynamics of tsetse flies, parametrized with field and laboratory data. It accounts for density- and temperature-dependence. The studied environment is heterogeneous, fragmented and dispersal is suitability-driven. We confirmed that temperature and adult mortality have a strong impact on tsetse populations. When homogeneously increasing adult mortality, control was less effective and induced faster population recovery in the coldest and temperature-stable locations, creating refuges. To optimally select locations to control, we assessed the potential impact of treating them and their contribution to the whole population. This heterogeneous control induced a similar population decrease, with more dispersed individuals. Control efficacy was no longer related to temperature. Dispersal was responsible for refuges at the interface between controlled and uncontrolled zones, where resurgence after control was very high. The early identification of refuges, which could jeopardize control efforts, is crucial. We recommend baseline data collection to characterize the ecosystem before implementing any measures.

Demography of a widespread raptor across disparate regions

Demographic differences between stable and declining populations can lend insight into drivers of population decline. The American Kestrel Falco sparverius is a widespread and often‐studied falcon, yet its demography is poorly understood, and the causes of observed population declines across much of North America remain unknown. Using integrated population models and sensitivity analysis, we examine how vital rates drive growth in population levels of American Kestrels at four discrete study sites – Florida, Idaho and Pennsylvania with stable nestbox occupancy, and New Jersey, where occupancy is declining. Population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, yet was most correlated with immigration, in all populations. Additionally, population growth was positively correlated with survival rates of juveniles in Pennsylvania. We found evidence for density‐dependence in at least one vital rate for all populations except Florida. Fecundity was density‐dependent in New Jersey and Idaho, and the population growth rate was density‐dependent in Idaho. Adult survival, immigration and the population growth rate were density‐dependent in Pennsylvania. The New Jersey population had the highest rate of fecundity, suggesting that declines there are probably not caused by reproductive failure. Our study demonstrates that two principal demographic processes, adult survival and immigration, drive population dynamics of American Kestrels – both of which are understudied.

Shrubs facilitate perennial bunchgrass recruitment in drylands under experimental precipitation change

Increasing extremes in climate related weather events pose a major threat to plant recruitment in drylands. Research has shown facilitation effects by shrubs to improve recruitment in arid regions, however it remains unclear if these effects vary between soil types, early life stages and in both severe precipitation and drought events. We test if shrubs facilitate abundance of both seedlings and juveniles between two soil types in artificial high precipitation, ambient and severe drought conditions. When the effect of shrubs was considered, seedling and juvenile responses were similar between sites. Shrubs increased seedling abundance by 40.9% in drought. In high precipitation, shrubs increased seedling abundance by 20% at one site and juvenile abundance 15% at both sites. These findings support the notion that shrubs can improve recruitment in both severe precipitation and drought years, but the strength of this effect varies with soil. Our results indicate that resource islands generated by shrubs in high precipitation years, may be an important factor driving population dynamics in arid systems as years oscillate between wet and dry.

Macroclimate drives growth of hair lichens in boreal forest canopies

Abstract Epiphytic lichens are important biodiversity components of forest canopies world‐wide, significantly contributing to ecosystem function. The RGR, a measure of fitness, drives population dynamics and shapes lichens’ large‐scale distributions. In a climate change scenario, we need to know how external (macro‐ and microclimate, and nitrogen deposition) and internal factors (cortical pigments, chlorophyll and specimen size) affect RGR in these ecologically important canopy organisms. We used dominant pendulous hair lichens widely distributed across the boreal biome to test the hypothesis that precipitation drives RGR of pale (Alectoria sarmentosa, Usnea dasopoga) and dark species Bryoria fuscescens differently across a large‐scale gradient from continental to oceanic climates (precipitation: 450–2,600 mm) in Scandinavia (60–64°N, 5–19°E). After transplanting lichens to lower branches of Picea abies in nine boreal forest sites for 1 year, we used linear mixed effects models to analyse how total precipitation, rainfall, number of days with rain, temperature sum, nitrogen deposition, light, chlorophyll a (an indicator of photosynthetic capacity) and size influenced their RGR. RGR was highest in the pale species (Alectoria and Usnea) and increased with amount and frequency of precipitation, with >3 times higher RGR in the wettest compared to the driest site. The number of days with rain was a better predictor of RGR than total precipitation or rain. By contrast, RGR of the dark Bryoria weakly increased with precipitation. RGR in all species increased with light and decreased with size. Chlorophyll a concentration, boosted by moderate nitrogen deposition, increased RGR of all species. In conclusion, rainfall likely drives the distribution of the pale species due to their higher RGR and abundance in wet climates but cannot explain why Bryoria dominates drier inland forests. Our results highlight that the functional links between rainfall and RGR depends on both colour of the lichens (pale vs. dark pigments) and water storage traits. Synthesis. Our findings may explain the global, regional and local distribution patterns of hair lichens and help us to predict how environmental hazards such as climate change and forestry influence these important boreal canopy components.

Ecological Forecasts Reveal Limitations of Common Model Selection Methods: Predicting Changes in Beaver Colony Densities

Over the past two decades, there have been numerous calls to make ecology a more predictive science through direct empirical assessments of ecological models and predictions. While the widespread use of model selection using information criteria has pushed ecology toward placing a higher emphasis on prediction, few attempts have been made to validate the ability of information criteria to correctly identify the most parsimonious model with the greatest predictive accuracy. Here, we used an ecological forecasting framework to test the ability of information criteria to accurately predict the relative contribution of density dependence and density-independent factors (forage availability, harvest, weather, wolf [Canis lupus] density) on inter-annual fluctuations in beaver (Castor canadensis) colony densities. We modeled changes in colony densities using a discrete-time Gompertz model, and assessed the performance of four models using information criteria values: density-independent models with (1) and without (2) environmental covariates; and density-dependent models with (3) and without (4) environmental covariates. We then evaluated the forecasting accuracy of each model by withholding the final one-third of observations from each population and compared observed vs. predicted densities. Information criteria and our forecasting accuracy metrics both provided strong evidence of compensatory density dependence in the annual dynamics of beaver colony densities. However, despite strong within-sample performance by the most complex model (density-dependent with covariates) as determined using information criteria, hindcasts of colony densities revealed that the much simpler density-dependent model without covariates performed nearly as well predicting out-of-sample colony densities. The hindcast results indicated that the complex model over-fit our data, suggesting that parameters identified by information criteria as important predictor variables are only marginally valuable for predicting landscape-scale beaver colony dynamics. Our study demonstrates the importance of evaluating ecological models and predictions with long-term data and revealed how a known limitation of information criteria (over-fitting of complex models) can affect our interpretation of ecological dynamics. While incorporating knowledge of the factors that influence animal population dynamics can improve population forecasts, we suggest that comparing forecast performance metrics can likewise improve our knowledge of the factors driving population dynamics.

Ecological forecasts reveal limitations of common model selection methods: predicting changes in beaver colony densities.

Over the past two decades, there have been numerous calls to make ecology a more predictive science through direct empirical assessments of ecological models and predictions. While the widespread use of model selection using information criteria has pushed ecology toward placing a higher emphasis on prediction, few attempts have been made to validate the ability of information criteria to correctly identify the most parsimonious model with the greatest predictive accuracy. Here, we used an ecological forecasting framework to test the ability of information criteria to accurately predict the relative contribution of density dependence and density‐independent factors (forage availability, harvest, weather, wolf [Canis lupus] density) on inter‐annual fluctuations in beaver (Castor canadensis) colony densities. We modeled changes in colony densities using a discrete‐time Gompertz model, and assessed the performance of four models using information criteria values: density‐independent models with (1) and without (2) environmental covariates; and density‐dependent models with (3) and without (4) environmental covariates. We then evaluated the forecasting accuracy of each model by withholding the final one‐third of observations from each population and compared observed vs. predicted densities. Information criteria and our forecasting accuracy metrics both provided strong evidence of compensatory density dependence in the annual dynamics of beaver colony densities. However, despite strong within‐sample performance by the most complex model (density‐dependent with covariates) as determined using information criteria, hindcasts of colony densities revealed that the much simpler density‐dependent model without covariates performed nearly as well predicting out‐of‐sample colony densities. The hindcast results indicated that the complex model over‐fit our data, suggesting that parameters identified by information criteria as important predictor variables are only marginally valuable for predicting landscape‐scale beaver colony dynamics. Our study demonstrates the importance of evaluating ecological models and predictions with long‐term data and revealed how a known limitation of information criteria (over‐fitting of complex models) can affect our interpretation of ecological dynamics. While incorporating knowledge of the factors that influence animal population dynamics can improve population forecasts, we suggest that comparing forecast performance metrics can likewise improve our knowledge of the factors driving population dynamics.

Changes in age-structure over four decades were a key determinant of population growth rate in a long-lived mammal.

A changing environment directly influences birth and mortality rates, and thus population growth rates. However, population growth rates in the short term are also influenced by population age-structure. Despite its importance, the contribution of age-structure to population growth rates has rarely been explored empirically in wildlife populations with long-term demographic data. Here we assessed how changes in age-structure influenced short-term population dynamics in a semi-captive population of Asian elephants Elephas maximus. We addressed this question using a demographic dataset of female Asian elephants from timber camps in Myanmar spanning 45years (1970-2014). First, we explored temporal variation in age-structure. Then, using annual matrix population models, we used a retrospective approach to assess the contributions of age-structure and vital rates to short-term population growth rates with respect to the average environment. Age-structure was highly variable over the study period, with large proportions of juveniles in the years 1970 and 1985, and made a substantial contribution to annual population growth rate deviations. High adult birth rates between 1970 and 1980 would have resulted in large positive population growth rates, but these were prevented by a low proportion of reproductive-aged females. We highlight that an understanding of both age-specific vital rates and age-structure is needed to assess short-term population dynamics. Furthermore, this example from a human-managed system suggests that the importance of age-structure may be accentuated in populations experiencing human disturbance where age-structure is unstable, such as those in captivity or for endangered species. Ultimately, changes to the environment drive population dynamics by influencing birth and mortality rates, but understanding demographic structure is crucial for assessing population growth.

Geomorphological features drive spatiotemporal dynamics of young‐of‐the‐year brown trout populations in a large New Zealand river catchment

Abstract Determining the factors driving population dynamics of stream salmonids across broad landscapes is important for understanding stream ecosystem functioning and for the management and conservation of the populations of such fish. A few studies have described the determinants of the early life history of salmonids across catchments, but none of them have examined how this spatial variation develops temporally. We hypothesised that: (1) spatiotemporal dynamics of young‐of‐the‐year (YoY) trout populations vary within the catchment, with loss rates (emigration plus mortality) being higher in lower elevation, downstream reaches than in higher elevation, upstream ones; and (2) loss rate would be density dependent, leading to reduced intra‐ and inter‐cohort competition and supporting establishment of resident populations. We tested the first hypothesis by examining relationships between geomorphic characteristics of spawning streams and temporal dynamics of YoY brown trout density, loss rate and biological traits through an austral summer across the catchment of New Zealand's fourth‐longest river, the Taieri River. To test the second hypothesis, we examined whether initial YoY density in spring and other biotic determinants affected loss rate and cohort structure dynamics, resulting in density‐dependent self‐thinning of YoY fish to avoid resource limitation. Spring YoY density and subsequent loss rate was higher in low elevation sites, corresponding to stream accessibility to migratory spawners. These significant correlations of YoY density and related biotic variables with elevation disappeared later in the season, indicating that regardless of their origin, brown trout YoY tend to form stream resident populations with multicohort structure and densities low enough to limit intraspecific competition. Our findings provide evidence that geomorphological features of the landscape affect temporal dynamics of YoY trout populations driven by density‐dependent self‐regulatory mechanisms that can control the abundance of growing fish.

Landscape structure and climate drive population dynamics of an insect vector within intensely managed agroecosystems.

Characterizing factors affecting insect pest populations across variable landscapes is a major challenge for agriculture. In natural ecosystems, insect populations are strongly mediated by landscape and climatic factors. However, it has proven difficult to evaluate if similar factors predict pest dynamics in agroecosystems because control tactics exert strong confounding effects. We addressed this by assessing whether species distribution models could effectively characterize dynamics of an insect pest in intensely managed agroecosystems. Our study used a regional multi-year data set to assess landscape and climatic drivers of potato psyllid (Bactericera cockerelli) populations, which are often subjected to calendar-based insecticide treatments because they transmit pathogens to crops. Despite this, we show that psyllid populations were strongly affected by landscape and climatic factors. Psyllids were more abundant in landscapes with high connectivity, low crop diversity, and large natural areas. Psyllid population dynamics were also mediated by climatic factors, particularly precipitation and humidity. Our results show that many of the same factors that drive insect population dynamics in natural ecosystems can have similar effects in an intensive agroecosystem. More broadly, our study shows that models incorporating landscape and climatic factors can describe pest populations in agroecosystems and may thus promote more sustainable pest management.

Ecological interactions are a primary driver of population dynamics in wine yeast microbiota during fermentation

Spontaneous wine fermentation is characterized by yeast population evolution, modulated by complex physical and metabolic interactions amongst various species. The contribution of any given species to the final wine character and aroma will depend on its numerical persistence during the fermentation process. Studies have primarily evaluated the effect of physical and chemical factors such as osmotic pressure, pH, temperature and nutrient availability on mono- or mixed-cultures comprising 2–3 species, but information about how interspecies ecological interactions in the wine fermentation ecosystem contribute to population dynamics remains scant. Therefore, in the current study, the effect of temperature and sulphur dioxide (SO2) on the dynamics of a multi-species yeast consortium was evaluated in three different matrices including synthetic grape juice, Chenin blanc and Grechetto bianco. The population dynamics were affected by temperature and SO2, reflecting differences in stress resistance and habitat preferences of the different species and influencing the production of most volatile aroma compounds. Evidently at 15 °C and in the absence of SO2 non-Saccharomyces species were dominant, whereas at 25 °C and when 30 mg/L SO2 was added S. cerevisiae dominated. Population growth followed similar patterns in the three matrices independently of the conditions. The data show that fermentation stresses lead to an individual response of each species, but that this response is strongly influenced by the interactions between species within the ecosystem. Thus, our data suggest that ecological interactions, and not only physico-chemical conditions, are a dominant factor in determining the contribution of individual species to the outcome of the fermentation.

A Synthesis of Evidence of Drivers of Amphibian Declines

Early calls for robust long-term time series of amphibian population data, stemming from discussion following the first World Congress of Herpetology, are now being realized after 25 yr of focused research. Inference from individual studies and locations have contributed to a basic consensus on drivers of amphibian declines. Until recently there were no large-scale syntheses of long-term time series data to test hypotheses about the generality of factors driving population dynamics at broad spatial scales. Through the U.S. Geological Survey's Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, we brought together a group of scientists to elucidate mechanisms underlying amphibian declines in North America and Europe. We used time series of field data collected across dozens of study areas to make inferences with these combined data using hierarchical and spatial models. We bring together results from four syntheses of these data to summarize our state of knowledge of amphibian declines, identify commonalities that suggest further avenues of study, and suggest a way forward in addressing amphibian declines—by looking beyond specific drivers to how to achieve stability in remaining populations. The common thread of the syntheses is that declines are real but not ubiquitous, and that multiple factors drive declines but the relative importance of each factor varies among species, populations, and regions. We also found that climate is an important driver of amphibian population dynamics. However, the direction and magnitude of sensitivity to change vary among species in ways unlikely to explain overall rates of decline. Thirty years after the initial identification of a major catastrophe for global biodiversity, the scientific community has empirically demonstrated the reality of the problem, identified putative causes, provided evidence of their impacts, invested in broader-scale actions, and attempted meta-analyses to search out global drivers. We suggest an approach that focuses on key demographic rates that may improve amphibian population trends at multiple sites across the landscape.

The interactive role of predation, competition and habitat conditions in structuring an intertidal bivalve population

Habitat characteristics, predation and competition are known to interactively drive population dynamics. Highly complex habitats, for example, may reduce predation and competition, allowing more individuals living together in a certain area. However, the strength and direction of such interactions can differ strongly and are context dependent. Furthermore, as habitat characteristics are rapidly changing due to anthropogenic impacts, it becomes increasingly important to understand such interactions. Here, we studied the interactive effects of predation and competition on common cockle (Cerastoderma edule) recruitment, growth and survival under different habitat characteristics in the Wadden Sea, one of the world's largest intertidal ecosystems. In a predator-exclosure experiment, we manipulated cockle densities (100 vs. 1000 individuals m-2) and shorebird predation at two sites differing in habitat characteristics, namely at the wake of a blue mussel bed (Mytilus edulis) and at an adjacent sandy site. We found that recruitment was higher in the mussel-modified habitat, most likely due to reduction of hydrodynamic stress. Although bird predation strongly reduced recruit density, the combined effects still yielded more recruitment at the vicinity of the mussel bed compared to the sandy area. Furthermore, we found that high cockle densities combined with high densities of other potential prey (i.e. mussels) at the mussel-modified site, mitigated predation effects for adult cockles. Apart from these positive effects on adults, mussel-modified habitat reduced cockle growth, most likely by reducing hydrodynamics in the wake of the mussel bed and by increasing inter-specific competition for food. Our study experimentally underpins the importance of habitat characteristics, competition and predation in interactively structuring intertidal communities.

Scale‐appropriate spatial modelling to support area‐wide management of a polyphagous fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae)

AbstractControl of mobile pests frequently requires area‐wide management (AWM) that spans commercial and non‐commercial habitats. Spatial modelling of habitat suitability can guide investment and implementation of AWM, but current approaches rarely capture population drivers, including local foraging, at an appropriate spatial resolution. To support the development of AWM for the fruit fly pest, Bactrocera tryoni (Tephritidae), we developed a habitat suitability model for the three premier fruit‐growing regions in south‐eastern Australia (~34,780 km2). Expert elicitation and published literature was used to develop a Bayesian network to model the drivers of B. tryoni habitat suitability, as determined by the ability of populations to persist and increase. The effect of uncertainty was tested through sensitivity analysis. The model was then linked with spatially explicit data (at 10 m resolution) to generate risk maps, using moving windows to capture local foraging movement. Habitat suitability was most strongly influenced by host availability within a distance of 200 m. Climate stress, and soil moisture for pupation, was also limiting. Experts were uncertain regarding the relative importance of drivers of host availability (host preference, host density, fruit seasonality), but this did not greatly affect model outputs. Independent trapping data supported model predictions, but their value was limited as traps were placed almost exclusively in optimal or suitable habitat. Amenability to AWM, when assessed as the ratio of suitable or optimal habitat that was under non‐horticultural versus horticultural land‐uses, differed by region (0.15–1.17). However, risk‐mapping did identify where ratios were locally most favourable (lowest). Also, predominantly local dispersal by B. tryoni suggests AWM for pest suppression could be applied at a landscape‐scale. Results show that a relatively simple model could capture the multi‐scale drivers of population dynamics and the complexity of landscapes sufficiently to guide AWM of a mobile pest.

Joint estimation of survival and breeding probability in female dolphins and calves with uncertainty in state assignment.

While the population growth rate in long‐lived species is highly sensitive to adult survival, reproduction can also significantly drive population dynamics. Reproductive parameters can be challenging to estimate as breeders and nonbreeders may vary in resighting probability and reproductive status may be difficult to assess. We extended capture–recapture (CR) models previously fitted for data on other long‐lived marine mammals to estimate demographic parameters while accounting for detection heterogeneity between individuals and state uncertainty regarding reproductive status. We applied this model to data on 106 adult female bottlenose dolphins observed over 13 years. The detection probability differed depending on breeding status. Concerning state uncertainty, offspring were not always sighted with their mother, and older calves were easier to detect than young‐of‐the‐year (YOY), respectively, 0.79 (95% CI 0.59–0.90) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.46–0.68). This possibly led to inaccurate reproductive status assignment of females. Adult female survival probability was high (0.97 CI 95% 0.96–0.98) and did not differ according to breeding status. Young‐of‐the‐year and 1‐year‐old calves had a significantly higher survival rate than 2‐year‐old (respectively, 0.66 CI 95% 0.50–0.78 and 0.45 CI 95% 0.29–0.61). This reduced survival is probably related to weaning, a period during which young are exposed to more risks since they lose protection and feeding from the mother. The probability of having a new YOY was high for breeding females that had raised a calf to the age of 3 or lost a 2‐year‐old calf (0.71, CI 95% 0.45–0.88). Yet, this probability was much lower for nonbreeding females and breeding females that had lost a YOY or a 1‐year‐old calf (0.33, 95% CI 0.26–0.42). The multievent CR framework we used is highly flexible and could be easily modified for other study questions or taxa (marine or terrestrial) aimed at modeling reproductive parameters.

Population dynamics of Echinops gmelinii Turcz. at different successional stages of biological soil crusts in a temperate desert in China.

The effects of biological soil crusts (BSC) on vascular plant growth can be positive, neutral or negative, and little information is available on the impacts of different BSC successional stages on vascular plant population dynamics. We analysed seedling emergence, survival, plant growth and reproduction in response to different BSC successional stages (i.e. habitats: bare soil, cyanobacteria, lichen and moss crusts) in natural populations of Echinops gmelinii Turcz. in the Tengger Desert of northwest China. The winter annual E. gmelinii is a dominant pioneer herb after sand stabilisation. During the early stages of BSC succession, the studied populations of E. gmelinii were characterised by high density, plant growth and fecundity. As the BSC succession proceeded beyond moss crusts, the fecundity decreased sharply, which limited seedling recruitment. Differences in seedling survival among the successional stages were not evident, indicating that BSC have little effect on survival in arid desert regions. Moreover, E. gmelinii biomass allocation exhibited low plasticity, and only reproductive allocation was sensitive to the various habitats. Our results further suggest that the negative effects of BSC succession on population dynamics are primarily driven by increasing topsoil water-holding capacity and decreasing rain water infiltration into deeper soil. We conclude that BSC succession drives population dynamics of E. gmelinii, primarily via its effect on soil moisture. The primary cause for E. gmelinii population decline during the moss-dominated stage of BSC succession is decreased fecundity of individual plants, with declining seed mass possibly reducing the success of seedling establishment.

The sensitivity of seabird populations to density‐dependence, environmental stochasticity and anthropogenic mortality

Abstract The balance between economic growth and wildlife conservation is a priority for many governments. Enhancing realism in assessment of population‐level impacts of anthropogenic mortality can help achieve this balance. Population Viability Analysis (PVA) is commonly applied to investigate population vulnerability, but outcomes of PVA are sensitive to formulations of density‐dependence, environmental stochasticity and life history. Current practice in marine assessments is to use precautionary models that assume no compensation from density‐dependence or rescue‐effects via “re‐seeding” from other colonies. However, if we could empirically quantify regulatory population processes, the responses of populations to additional anthropogenic mortality may be assessed with more realism in PVA. Using Bayesian state‐space models fitted to population time series from three sympatric seabird populations, selected for varied life histories, we inferred the extent to which their dynamics are driven by environmental stochasticity and density‐dependence. Based on these inferences, we conducted an exhaustive PVA across credible parameterizations for intrinsic and extrinsic population regulation, simulated as a closed and re‐seeded system. Scenarios of anthropogenic mortality, along a sliding scale of precaution, were applied both proportionally and as a fixed quota using Potential Biological Removal (PBR). Baseline results from fitting revealed clear environmental regulation in two of our three species. Crucially, we found that for our empirically derived, realistic model parameterizations there are risks of decline to real populations even under very precautionary mortality scenarios. We find that PBR is dubious in application as a sustainable tool for population assessment when we account for regulation. Closed versus re‐seeded models showed a large divergence in outcomes, with sharper declines in closed simulations. Fixed‐quota mortality typically induced greater population declines comparative to proportional mortality, subject to regulation and re‐seeding. Synthesis and applications. Practitioners using arbitrary formulations of population regulation risk over‐precaution (economic constraint) or under‐precaution (endangering populations). The demands of increased economic development and preservation of wildlife require that methodologies apply techniques that confer reality and rigour to assessment. The current practice of employing models lacking density‐dependence and empirical environmental information imposes limitations in the efficacy of estimating impacts. Here, we provide a method to quantify the conditions that predominantly regulate a population and exacerbate the risk of decline from anthropogenic mortality. It is in the interests of both developers and conservationists to apply methods in population impact assessments that capture realism in the processes driving population dynamics.