Drivers Of Change Research Articles

Boosting Sustainable Consumption Behaviour Through Consumer Education in the Fashion Retail and Service Environment

Due to the growing environmental impact of the fashion industry, the demand for sustainable consumption is currently an urgent issue. The exponential increase of textile waste and the progressive reduction of product lifespan call for a shift to circular models, and in this context, consumer awareness has also become crucial. The retail environment, driven by an increasing shift towards a servitisation of the consumer experience, with its associated Product-Service Systems (PSSs), can provide a compelling opportunity to nurture consumer awareness, thus acting as a proactive mechanism to induce more responsible and sustainable behaviour. Within this framework, retail design is emerging as a key driver for sustainable behavioural changes in fashion consumption. This article, therefore, reflects on how fashion brands are actively orchestrating strategies within retail, defining dedicated PPSs to promote responsible consumption practices involving informative content, empowerment tools and co-creation initiatives that, going beyond awareness, can evolve into advocacy.

Capable but Not Empowered? How Emancipative Values Affect Protest Participation Across Different Contexts

Political protest and citizen participation are important drivers of democratic change. While previous research has identified both micro-level attitudes such as emancipative values and macro-level factors as drivers of protest behavior, we know little about how citizens’ value-driven motivations interact with the political context. We argue that the effect of emancipative values on protest participation depends on both democratic institutions and the capacity of civil society mobilizations. Specifically, we expect the positive effect of emancipative values to be stronger in countries with higher democratic quality and more pro-democratic mass mobilizations, and weaker in countries with more pro-autocratic mass mobilizations. By combining survey and macro data for 88 democratic and autocratic regimes, we find that citizens’ value orientations interact with democratic quality and the prevalence of pro-autocratic mass mobilizations in shaping protest participation. These results contribute to a better understanding of the structural and societal preconditions for democratic change.

Changing Nature of the European Union - Turkey Relations: From Civilizational Project to Transactional Cooperation

Turkey’s ambition to be anchored in the European integration process is one of the oldest and most challenging priorities of its foreign policy. As a symbolic coincidence, the centenary of the Republic of Turkey overlaps with the 60th anniversary of its association relationship with the then European Economic Community (EEC) during when both sides have experienced frequent fluctuations in their bilateral relations. In that sense, the idea of change has always embedded in Turkey-European Union (EU) relations corresponding to much broader changes in Turkey’s foreign policy. This study is aware of the fact that focusing on one side will provide only a partial explanation of variations in the EU-Turkey relations and aims to present the drivers of change in their mutual relations not only by focusing on the actions and inactions of the successive Turkish governments but also by paying attention to the changes in the EU’s and its member states’ policies towards Turkey. This study adopts literature review and tries to answer how Turkey’s EU policy has transformed in the last 60 years by analysing historical turning points in this period and their implications for the ongoing relations. Based on this historical analysis, this study argues that the relationship between the EU and Turkey, which has been becoming increasingly distant from each other, has lost the initial civilisational spirit and turned into a patronage symbolised by ad-hoc transactional agreement/s.

Multi-decade land cover/land use dynamics and future predictions for Zambia: 2000–2030

Human LULCC is the many driver of environmental changes. Accurate and up-to-date current and predicted information on LULCC is important in land use planning and natural resource management; however, in Zambia, detailed information on LULCC is insufficient. Therefore, this study assessed the dynamics of LULC change (2000–2020) and future projections (2020–2030) for Zambia. The ESA CCI land cover maps, which have been developed from Sentinel-2 images were used in this study. This dataset has a grid spatial resolution of 300 m for the 2000, 2010 and 2020. The 31 ESA CCI Classification were reclassified into ten (10) local Classifications using the r.class module in QGIS 2.18.14. The 2000 and 2010 LULC maps were used to simulate the 2020 LULC scenario using Artificial Neural Network (Multi-layer Perception) algorithms in Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) plugin in QGIS 2.18.14. The 2010 and 2020 maps were used to predict the 2030 LULC classes. The reference 2020 and predicted 2020 LULC maps were used to validate the model. Predicted against observed 2020 LULC map, Kappa (loc) statistic was 0.9869. The 2020 LULC patterns was successfully simulated using ANN-MLP with accuracy level of 95%. LULC classes were predicted for 2030 using the 2010–2020 calibration period. The predicted 2030 LULC types shows an increase in built-up (71.44%) and decrease in cropland (0.73%) with reference to 2020 LULC map. Dense forest (0.19%), grassland (0.85%) and bare land (1.37%) will reduce from 2020–2030. However, seasonally flooded, sparse forest, shrub land, wetland and water body will increase marginally. The largest LULC change is from forest into other LULC types. The insights from this study show that ANN-MLP can be used to predict LULCC, and that the generated information can be employed in land use planning and National Adaptation Plans at regional and national scale.

Intraspecific demographic and trait responses to environmental change drivers are linked in two species of ciliate.

Over the past decade, theory and observations have suggested intraspecific variation, trait-based differences within species, as a buffer against biodiversity loss from multiple environmental changes. This buffering effect can only occur when different populations of the same species respond differently to environmental change. More specifically, variation of demographic responses fosters buffering of demography, while variation of trait responses fosters buffering of functioning. Understanding how both responses are related is important for predicting biodiversity loss and its consequences. In this study, we aimed to empirically assess whether population-level trait responses to multiple environmental change drivers are related to the demographic response to these drivers. To this end, we measured demographic and trait responses in microcosm experiments with two species of ciliated protists. For three clonal strains of each species, we measured responses to two environmental change drivers (climate change and pollution) and their combination. We also examined if relationships between demographic and trait responses existed across treatments and strains. We found different demographic responses across strains of the same species but hardly any interactive effects between the two environmental change drivers. Also, trait responses (summarized in a survival strategy index) varied among strains within a species, again with no driver interactions. Demographic and trait responses were related across all strains of both species tested in this study: Increasing intrinsic growth and self-limitation were associated with a shift in survival strategy from sit-and-wait towards flee. Our results support the existence of a link between a population's demographic and trait responses to environmental change drivers in two species of ciliate. Future work could dive deeper into the specifics of phenotypical trait values, and changes therein, related to specific life strategies in different species of ciliate and other zooplankton grazers.

Social context of contraceptive use transition among sexually active women in Zambia (1992-2018): A decomposition analysis.

Contraception is an important public health initiative for addressing maternal health outcomes associated with unplanned pregnancies, unsafe abortions and maternal deaths. Although contraceptive use has been on the rise globally, the observed increases in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are sub-optimal and vary among countries. In Zambia, drivers of contraceptive use transition are not well documented. Thus, this study examined the drivers of contraceptive use change among sexually active women in Zambia between 1992 and 2018. Data came from the six Zambia Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1992 and 2018. A sample of 44,762 fecund sexually active women aged 15-49 years was analysed using multivariable Blinder Oaxaca decomposition regression analysis. Analysis took into account the complex survey design. Results were presented using adjusted coefficients, their 95% confidence intervals, and percentages. The prevalence of contraceptive use among sexually active women increased significantly by 30.8 percentage points from 14.2% (95% CI: 12.8, 15.6) to 45.0% (95% CI: 43.6, 46.4) during the period 1992 to 2018. The major share of the increase happened during the period 1992-1996 (10.2%) while the least increase occurred between 2013 and 2018 (0.2%). Overall, about 15% of the increase in the prevalence of contraceptive use was attributable to changes in the compositional characteristics of women. On the other hand, 85% of the increase was due to change in contraceptive behaviour of sexually active women. Changes in women's compositional characteristics such as secondary education (5.84%), fertility preference (5.63%), number of living children (3.30%) and experience of child mortality (7.68%) were associated with the increase in contraceptive use prevalence. Change in contraceptive behaviour of sexually active women contributed largely to the observed increase in contraceptive use prevalence in Zambia. Increase in the proportion of women attaining secondary education, decrease in the percentage of women who want large families and improvement in child survival were the major compositional factors driving the rise in contraceptive use. The findings imply that increasing investment in education sector and enhancing existing family planning programmes has the potential to further improve contraceptive use prevalence in Zambia.

Modeling the impacts of oil palm plantations on water quantity and quality in the Kais River Watershed of Indonesia

Oil palm plantations can impact hydrological processes in many tropical watersheds. The rapid conversion of tropical rainforests for commercial operations in recent decades has been associated with water scarcity, flooding, and polluted rivers. However, this widespread and emerging issue is less studied and underreported due to limited data availability, modeling complexity, and the remote nature of these landscapes. Ecohydrologic modeling enables us to investigate changes in watershed conditions caused by large-scale land cover changes from plantations. This study examines the impact of oil plantations on water quantity and quality using the SWAT+ model in the Kais River Watershed, West Papua, Indonesia. The objective is to assess the hydrological changes concerning land cover conversion to oil palm plantations. Results show that establishing oil palm plantations increased surface runoff by 21 %, and sediment yields rose by 16.9 % compared to the baseline. There was also a significant increase of 78 % in mean annual total nitrogen and 144 % in total phosphorous after the plantations' establishment. The results show that forest conversion to oil palm plantations in the Kais River watershed is a primary driver of change in hydrological regimes, resulting in the deterioration of water quality. There is a need for conservation strategies to mitigate the impacts of significant landscape changes in watershed ecosystems.

Inlet-adjacent beach and shoreline variability at decadal scales

Beaches provide storm protection and economic benefit for coastal communities and also host important habitats for keystone species, especially in the state of Florida. However, sea level rise, coastal construction, and intensifying storms are resulting in coastal erosion, which often requires informed mitigation and management strategies. This study aims to explore decadal-scale trends in morphology change and shoreline variability of inlet-adjacent beaches in Jupiter, Florida. Data from three locations over a period of three decades were analyzed to determine volumetric and contour changes above the shoreline (0 m elevation) and across the entire profile. The largest variability in decadal morphology change was measured at beaches closest to Jupiter Inlet. Substantial shoreline and beach changes were also associated with periods of higher storm activity. Variability in storm events, nourishment trends, and longshore sediment transport also influenced decadal morphologic change. To best adapt to coastal change and develop comprehensive beach-inlet management plans, it is imperative to understand past trends of shoreline variability and beach-nearshore erosion and accretion patterns. Results of this study demonstrate an approach to elucidate decadal patterns in morphology changes and drivers of change.

The impact of law on moral and social norms: evidence from facemask fines in the UK

AbstractWe measure the extent that a prevailing law can affect moral and social norms. We use variations in facemask fines in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, as it presents us with many features of a natural experiment. Our analysis provides two important findings. First, we find that the legal status of a behaviour, that is whether the behaviour is illegal or not, is important in influencing stated compliance and moral and social norms. In contrast we find no evidence that a variation in penalties has any effect on stated compliance or moral or social norms. We consider these results are important for law makers and society, as both moral and social norms are known to be important drivers of social change, and our results show that legality influences both—thus highlighting an endogenous relationship between the law—and moral and social norms.

Asynchronous Holocene lake evolution in arid mid-latitude Asia is driven by glacial meltwater and variations in Westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon

Understanding the mechanisms driving hydrological change in arid Central Asia over a range of time scales is crucial for making predictions for future changes in fragile desert-lake ecosystems. As of yet, the drivers of hydrological changes in lake systems of arid Central Asia over the Holocene remain largely unexplored. Aibi Lake, fed by rivers originating from the glaciated Tianshan Mountains and terminating in the arid Junggar Basin of northwestern China, presents a perfect natural laboratory to explore lake evolution in context to Holocene climate evolution in arid Central Asia. Here, a single-grain K-feldspar dating method was used to effectively date 20 paleolake shorelines with poorly bleached sediment to constrain lake level evolution over the past 18 k.y. Results indicate that Aibi Lake experienced a rapid increase in water levels, reaching a peak of ∼36 m during the early to mid-Holocene period (10−7 ka). Subsequently, the lake level may have shown a general decline during the middle Holocene (7−4 ka), with the lake reaching a low level of less than 10 m at ca. 4 ka. In the late Holocene, lake levels fluctuated by 10−30 m above modern levels during 4−1 ka, with generally low levels of <9 m after 1 ka. The evolution of Aibi Lake underlines a clear out-of-phase relationship between Central Asian lake evolution and Westerlies precipitation changes, where Holocene lake changes were instead more directly controlled by the flux of glacial meltwater from the Tianshan Mountains, driven by change in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Glacier meltwater, in combination with variable delivery of Westerlies and East Asian summer monsoon precipitation, are responsible for asynchronous lake evolution trends across Central to East Asia.

Bionovelty and ecological restoration

Anthropogenic activity has irreparably altered the ecological fabric of Earth. The emergence of ecological novelty from diverse drivers of change is an increasingly challenging dimension of ecosystem restoration. At the same time, the restorationist's tool kit continues to grow, including a variety of powerful and increasingly prevalent technologies. Thus, ecosystem restoration finds itself at the center of intersecting challenges. How should we respond to increasingly common emergence of environmental system states with little or no historical precedent, whilst considering the appropriate deployment of potentially consequential and largely untested interventions that may give rise to organisms, system states, and/or processes that are likewise without historical precedent? We use the term bionovelty to encapsulate these intersecting themes and examine the implications of bionovelty for ecological restoration.

Land cover changes in rural communities of Zimbabwe pre and post land reform era; a case of Shurugwi South constituency

ABSTRACT The study assessed land cover changes in rural communities of Zimbabwe pre and post land reform era (1980 - 2020). A mixed methods research design was adopted with the use of both qualitative and quantitative research methods. Remote sensing, questionnaires, interviews and observations were used for data collection. Microsoft Excel and ArcMap 10.5 software were adopted for data analysis. Results indicated that clearance of land for agriculture especially crop production, wood abstraction for domestic use and selling, establishment of settlements were the major drivers of change in Shurugwi South. Between 2000 and 2020, results showed that water bodies, shrub land and dense woodlands declined whilst grassland and cultivated/bare land increased. Findings indicated that the rates of increase in cultivated/bare lands and grassland were faster between 2000 and 2020. More so, generally water bodies and shrub land decreased during the 2000–2020 period. These changes indicated that land reform program and associated land reallocation in 2000 influenced the rates and pattern of land cover changes. The changes in land ownership and use rights following the land reforms affected land use patterns between 2000 and 2020. Naturally vegetated land is depleting hence the need for land resource conservation.

A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data

The decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) is a key driver of population change and has important implications for population health and social development. However, China’s TFR has been a considerable controversy due to a lack of high-quality data. Therefore, this study used the 2020 national population census of China (NPCC) data and reverse survival method to reassess temporal trends in the TFRs and to reexamine rural–urban differences and regional variations in TFRs from 2000 to 2020 in China. Overall, there were significant gaps between the estimated and reported TFRs before 2020, and the estimated TFRs based on the 2020 NPCC data remained higher than the reported TFRs from government statistics. Although TFRs rebounded shortly in the years after the two-child policy, they have shown a wavelike decline since 2010. Additionally, the estimated TFRs fluctuated below 1.5 children per woman in urban areas compared to above 1.8 in rural areas, but the rural–urban differences continued to decrease. Regarding geographic regional variations, the estimated TFRs in all regions displayed a declining trend during 2010–2020, especially in rural areas. Large decreases of over 25% in TFRs occurred in the north, east, central, and northwest regions. In addition to changing the birth policy, the government and society should adopt comprehensive strategies, including reducing the costs of marriage, childbearing, and child education, as well as promoting work-family balance, to encourage and increase fertility levels.

Empowerment of Rural Women through Entrepreneurial Initiatives

This article highlights the potential for change of economic activity in historically underprivileged regions, focusing into the dynamic areas of rural women's empowerment through entrepreneurial initiatives. Entrepreneurial efforts emerge as effective instruments for building overall empowerment in the face of systemic problems such as restricted access to education, economic marginalization, and gender inequities. This study begins by detailing the particular problems that rural women confront, such as educational limitations, economic marginalization, and strongly established gender stereotypes. These problems set the setting for a more in-depth analysis of how entrepreneurial initiatives might act as positive change drivers. The paper emphasizes the various importance of entrepreneurial efforts in tackling these difficulties. Entrepreneurship becomes a vehicle for skill development, financial inclusion, and community building in addition to economic rewards. Entrepreneurship contributes to altering society narratives and challenging gender stereotypes by giving practical chances for women to break away from defined positions. This article proposes for a holistic strategy to rural empowerment that mixes economic activities with education, skill development, and technology. It hopes to stimulate future study, policy interventions, and grassroots activities that acknowledge the multiple links between entrepreneurship, gender equity, and rural community life. Finally, this investigation enables readers to imagine a future in which entrepreneurial initiatives act as transforming forces, releasing the full potential of rural women and creating resilient, empowered communities.

On the attribution of changes in streamflow conditions to climate variability in North Carolina Piedmont, United States

ABSTRACT Changes in streamflow magnitudes have ecological, hydrological, and geomorphological implications. Improved knowledge and understanding of the drivers of changes in streamflow conditions remain critical in water resource management. Spatiotemporal patterns of changes in streamflow conditions for five flow percentiles between two comparative periods: historical period (1944–1980) and recent period (1984‒2022) were determined in 18 watersheds of North Carolina Piedmont. The observed percentage changes in streamflow magnitudes for the five flow percentiles were attributed to change magnitudes in monthly mean precipitation and monthly mean temperature using a statistical modeling framework (i.e. gamma regression model). The results showed reduced streamflow magnitudes for the 10th, 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile flows, respectively, while an increased streamflow magnitude was found for the 90th percentile flow at many of the sites in recent period. The regression models captured the relationships between change magnitudes in streamflow conditions and changes in climate variables across all the sites.

The exposure of the world’s mountains to global change drivers

Global change affects mountain areas at different levels, with some mountains being more exposed to change in climate or environmental conditions and others acting as local refugia. We quantified the exposure of the world's mountains to three drivers of change, climate, land use, and human population density, using two spatial-temporal metrics (velocity and magnitude of change). We estimated the acceleration of change for these drivers by comparing past (1975-2005) vs. future (2020-2050) exposure, and we also compared exposure in lowlands vs. mountains. We found Africa's tropical mountains facing the highest future exposure to multiple drivers of change, thus requiring targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies to preserve biodiversity. European and North America's mountains, in contrast, experience more limited exposure to global change and could act as local refugia for biodiversity. This knowledge can be used to prioritize local-scale interventions and planning long-term monitoring to reduce the risks faced by mountain biodiversity.

Spatiotemporal Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Impact on Urban Thermal Environments: Analyzing Cool Island Intensity Variations

This study pioneers the comprehensive evaluation of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use/land cover (LULC) in Hangzhou city, introducing the novel water body shape index (WBSI) to analyze its seasonal impacts on the urban thermal environment and urban cool island (UCI) effects, uncovering distinct patterns of thermal regulation. It particularly investigates how distance gradients and the water body shape index (WBSI) influence land surface temperature (LST) in the urban core. The region’s climate, featuring hot summers and cold winters, highlights significant seasonal LST variations. Addressing a gap in existing UCI research, the analysis extends beyond the typical large-scale planning focus to include small-scale, high-resolution aspects. Employing remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) analysis techniques, this study analyzes the seasonal dynamics in Hangzhou’s central urban area. High-resolution LST data, obtained through single-channel inversion and resolution enhancement algorithms, are crucial to this analysis. This study employs the maximum likelihood classification method to analyze land use and land cover changes from 1990 to 2020. This analysis reveals potential drivers of urban thermal environment changes, such as the expansion of residential and commercial areas and the reduction in green spaces. Different regions in LST data are delineated to assess the cool island effect, and the complexity of water body boundaries is quantified using the water body shape index. Spatial and temporal patterns of LST changes are investigated using multivariate regression and time-series analysis models. We identified significant changes in LULC over the past 30 years in Hangzhou, closely correlating with a continuous rise in LST. This observation underscores a clear finding: the strategic importance of blue–green infrastructure in mitigating urban heat, a novel insight that extends the current understanding of urban thermal dynamics. A clear and novel finding of this study is that the intensity of the cool island effect from large water bodies not only diminishes with distance but is intricately influenced by the complexity of their shapes, as quantified by the WBSI, whereas the complexity of their boundaries enhances this effect. Additionally, the regulatory role of the cool island effect is observed to vary seasonally, being most pronounced in summer and less so in autumn and winter, thereby demonstrating a positive impact. In conclusion, our findings innovatively highlight how the specific shapes of water bodies, quantified through the water body shape index (WBSI), emerge as critical, yet previously underappreciated, drivers in modulating the urban thermal environment. This underscores a new avenue for urban planning, advocating for the strategic design of water bodies within urban landscapes. It also finds that spatial factors and seasonal variations significantly affect the intensity of the cool island effect. These findings offer valuable evidence for urban planning and climate change adaptation, emphasizing balancing natural elements with the built environment in urban design.

Climate extremes and land use carbon emissions: Insight from the perspective of sustainable land use in the eastern coast of China

The changing land use is one of the primary factors influencing the pattern of carbon sources/sinks, while climate change is a major driver for land use change. With global warming increasing, assessing the impact of climate extremes on land use carbon emissions remains a great challenge. Here, we explored the changes in climate extremes from 1961 to 2020 using the CN05.1 gridded observation dataset. The impact of climate extremes on land use carbon emissions was analyzed by Pearson correlation methodology. The results demonstrated that (1) extreme temperatures were trending upwards, and dry periods were long, but short periods of heavy precipitation were possible from 1961 to 2020. (2) In terms of the extreme temperature indices, the high temperatures indices were positively correlated with land use carbon emissions. For the extreme precipitation indices, the other seven indices except CDD were also positively correlated with land use carbon emissions. (3) Furthermore, the extreme heat indices were positively correlated with land use carbon emissions mainly on construction land. The wetness indices showed a positive correlation with land use carbon emissions in the middle of Shandong Province. (4) Additionally, the influence of extreme temperatures on land use carbon emissions in Shandong Province was larger than of extreme precipitation. Among all the extreme climate indices, TN10p had the largest effect on land use carbon emissions and was significantly negatively correlated. These findings will provide scientific references for regional responses to climate change and the promotion of carbon emission reduction.

Non-coresident family as a driver of migration change in a crisis: the case of the COVID-19 pandemic

Changes in U.S. migration during the COVID-19 pandemic show that many moved to less populated cities from larger cities, deviating from previous trends. In this study, building on prior work in the literature showing that the abundance of family ties is inversely related to population size, we analyze these migration changes with a focus on the crucial, yet overlooked factor of extended family. Employing two large-scale data sets, census microdata and mobile phone GPS relocation data, we show a collection of empirical results that paints a picture of migration change affected by kin. Namely, we find that people migrated closer to family at higher rates after the COVID-19 pandemic started. Moreover, even controlling for factors such as population density and cost of living, we find that changes in net in-migration tended to be larger and positive in cities with larger proportions of people who can be parents to adult children (our proxy for parental family availability, which is also inversely related to population size). Our study advances the demography-disaster nexus and amplifies ongoing literature highlighting the role of broader kinship systems in large-scale socioeconomic phenomena.

Scenarios for a Scaling-up System for Organic Cassava Production in the Mekong River Basin: A Foresight Approach

Organic cassava flour and products are in high demand. However, the expansion of organic cassava (OCS) production is rather slow. To increase OCS production, extension workers, cassava flour mills, farmers, and researchers have been collaborating to support the farmers, but the planted areas have remained limited. This research aimed at understanding the current issues in scaling up the organic cassava production. The findings were subsequently used to formulate scenarios and recommendations for the collaborative scale-up of organic cassava production in the Mekong River Basin (MRB). We carried out a six-step foresight process with leaders of organic cassava farmers, the staff of organic cassava flour mills and factories, extension workers, the staff of research agencies, and local policy makers in Thailand. The results revealed two key factors or drivers of changes, namely, the degree of collaboration among stakeholders using multiple-view scenarios or a single-view situation and the degree of learning and communication about OCS that future stakeholders are likely to experience. Four possible scenarios for a scaling-up system of OCS production in the MRB were developed. The foresight process allowed for recognizing multiple views and opinions about the OCS production scaling-up process, considered as a whole system. The system was found to consist of various interdependent components. The process highlighted the need to increase the capacity and opportunities for productive collaboration in research and development. We concluded that the MRB members should issue a policy formulating a joint task force to coordinate the existing institutions’ plans and resources towards an actionable OCS production scaling-up system for the MRB in 2030.