Drivers Of Environmental Change Research Articles

Ecological impacts of a global plant invader: synthesizing mean and variance effects using meta‐analysis

Invasive alien species (IAS) are one amongst the dominant drivers of global environmental change. The reported effects of IAS on biodiversity and ecosystems are often highly variable across species, habitats, and environmental settings, which constrains our capacity to empirically generalise their overall impact. To date, meta‐analyses have investigated the ecological impacts of IAS using only mean effects, while variance effects – an equally important measure in quantifying the efficacy or generalizability of a treatment – has largely remained ignored. Using a global meta‐analysis of 586 and 522 effect sizes related to mean and variance measures respectively from 30 studies, here we provide the first quantitative synthesis of the extent to which a global plant invader Lantana camara affects the mean and variance of ecological variables relevant at species, community and ecosystem levels. Our results suggest that for individual response classes, both the mean and variance effects from the species invasion differed considerably in their magnitude and direction, with the effect on most response classes being highly heterogeneous and non‐significant. The study design had a significant effect on both the mean and variance effects from the species invasion, but the ecosystem type, continent, and latitude act as weak predictors of both mean and variance effects. By investigating both mean and variance effects, our study provides first quantitative synthesis on ecological impacts of a globally problematic invasive plant. Based on our findings, we highlight the current knowledge gaps and suggest future research directions, particularly the need to focus on causes of variance in invasion impact studies for effective management and restoration of invaded landscapes.

Assessing the trends and drivers of agricultural land use change in the Ramsar County, northern Iran

Agricultural land use change (ALUC) is a primary driver of global environmental change, with implications for food security and the environment. Ramsar County in the north of Iran has continuously undergone many changes due to the tourism characteristics of the region. The present study demonstrates the ALUC trends from 1992 to 2022 and the main drivers affecting ALUC in Ramsar County, northern Iran, using household surveys and Landsat data. Six land use classifications have been made for the region by image processing. Images have been categorized using the maximum likelihood classifier. Likewise, utilizing a questionnaire from 200 randomly selected farmers, in-person interviews were conducted. The kappa coefficient and overall accuracy for 1992, and 2022 were 85.91%, 88.86%, and 88.38%, 90.83%, respectively. It was observed that from 1992 to 2022, orchard (12%), open land (4.8%), and built-up areas (160.5%), increased respectively. In contrast, forest (−12.1%), water (−82.6%), and agri-land (−14.8%), declined respectively. Additionally, the analysis of the household survey indicates the high cost of production, the lack of a suitable market and price fluctuations of products, the aging of farmers, the increase in the population of non-native residents, weak policies to support farmers, lack of coordination between relevant institutions, the beautiful nature and tourism of the region, and climate changes and drought in other parts of the country were the most important drivers affecting ALUC in the region. Overall, this study can provide significant insights to decision-makers at the beginning of strategic planning to control the ALUC in the region.

From past habitats to present threats: tracing North American weasel distributions through a century of climate and land use change

ContextShifts in climate and land use have dramatically reshaped ecosystems, impacting the distribution and status of wildlife populations. For many species, data gaps limit inference regarding population trends and links to environmental change. This deficiency hinders our ability to enact meaningful conservation measures to protect at risk species.ObjectivesWe investigated historical drivers of environmental niche change for three North American weasel species (American ermine, least weasel, and long-tailed weasel) to understand their response to environmental change.MethodsUsing species occurrence records and corresponding environmental data, we developed species-specific environmental niche models for the contiguous United States (1938–2021). We generated annual hindcasted predictions of the species’ environmental niche, assessing changes in distribution, area, and fragmentation in response to environmental change.ResultsWe identified a 54% decline in suitable habitat alongside high levels of fragmentation for least weasels and region-specific trends for American ermine and long-tailed weasels; declines in the West and increased suitability in the East. Climate and land use were important predictors of the environmental niche for all species. Changes in habitat amount and distribution reflected widespread land use changes over the past century while declines in southern and low-elevation areas are consistent with impacts from climatic change.ConclusionsOur models uncovered land use and climatic change as potential historic drivers of population change for North American weasels and provide a basis for management recommendations and targeted survey efforts. We identified potentially at-risk populations and a need for landscape-level planning to support weasel populations amid ongoing environmental changes.

Multi-decade land cover/land use dynamics and future predictions for Zambia: 2000–2030

Human LULCC is the many driver of environmental changes. Accurate and up-to-date current and predicted information on LULCC is important in land use planning and natural resource management; however, in Zambia, detailed information on LULCC is insufficient. Therefore, this study assessed the dynamics of LULC change (2000–2020) and future projections (2020–2030) for Zambia. The ESA CCI land cover maps, which have been developed from Sentinel-2 images were used in this study. This dataset has a grid spatial resolution of 300 m for the 2000, 2010 and 2020. The 31 ESA CCI Classification were reclassified into ten (10) local Classifications using the r.class module in QGIS 2.18.14. The 2000 and 2010 LULC maps were used to simulate the 2020 LULC scenario using Artificial Neural Network (Multi-layer Perception) algorithms in Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) plugin in QGIS 2.18.14. The 2010 and 2020 maps were used to predict the 2030 LULC classes. The reference 2020 and predicted 2020 LULC maps were used to validate the model. Predicted against observed 2020 LULC map, Kappa (loc) statistic was 0.9869. The 2020 LULC patterns was successfully simulated using ANN-MLP with accuracy level of 95%. LULC classes were predicted for 2030 using the 2010–2020 calibration period. The predicted 2030 LULC types shows an increase in built-up (71.44%) and decrease in cropland (0.73%) with reference to 2020 LULC map. Dense forest (0.19%), grassland (0.85%) and bare land (1.37%) will reduce from 2020–2030. However, seasonally flooded, sparse forest, shrub land, wetland and water body will increase marginally. The largest LULC change is from forest into other LULC types. The insights from this study show that ANN-MLP can be used to predict LULCC, and that the generated information can be employed in land use planning and National Adaptation Plans at regional and national scale.

Intraspecific demographic and trait responses to environmental change drivers are linked in two species of ciliate.

Over the past decade, theory and observations have suggested intraspecific variation, trait-based differences within species, as a buffer against biodiversity loss from multiple environmental changes. This buffering effect can only occur when different populations of the same species respond differently to environmental change. More specifically, variation of demographic responses fosters buffering of demography, while variation of trait responses fosters buffering of functioning. Understanding how both responses are related is important for predicting biodiversity loss and its consequences. In this study, we aimed to empirically assess whether population-level trait responses to multiple environmental change drivers are related to the demographic response to these drivers. To this end, we measured demographic and trait responses in microcosm experiments with two species of ciliated protists. For three clonal strains of each species, we measured responses to two environmental change drivers (climate change and pollution) and their combination. We also examined if relationships between demographic and trait responses existed across treatments and strains. We found different demographic responses across strains of the same species but hardly any interactive effects between the two environmental change drivers. Also, trait responses (summarized in a survival strategy index) varied among strains within a species, again with no driver interactions. Demographic and trait responses were related across all strains of both species tested in this study: Increasing intrinsic growth and self-limitation were associated with a shift in survival strategy from sit-and-wait towards flee. Our results support the existence of a link between a population's demographic and trait responses to environmental change drivers in two species of ciliate. Future work could dive deeper into the specifics of phenotypical trait values, and changes therein, related to specific life strategies in different species of ciliate and other zooplankton grazers.

Environmental and anthropogenic drivers of invasive plant diversity and distribution in the Himalaya

Invasive alien species (IAS) are currently considered as one of the major causes of global environmental change. To manage the IAS, it is crucial to identify the different environmental and associated anthropogenic drivers that contribute to invasion of alien species in non-native regions. Although multiple drivers of invasion have been identified at a global scale, the relative roles of these are known to vary considerably at regional scales. Here, we investigate the role of key environmental and anthropogenic drivers in determining the diversity and distribution of selected invasive alien plant species in Kashmir Himalaya. We generated an extensive distribution dataset of these species through field sampling across the region and supplemented it with novel herbarium records. We also extracted data on the relevant environmental (climatic, soil and topographic) and anthropogenic drivers for the study region. The random forest model was employed to quantify the relative contribution of these drivers to determine the two common diversity metrics (species richness and abundance) of selected invasive alien plants. We found that soil water content followed by distance to city, the maximum air temperature, soil pH, soil temperature and human population density exerted the greatest influence on species richness of the invasive plants. Species abundance was significantly influenced by the maximum air temperature followed by soil temperature, distance to city, slope, soil pH and human population density. Overall, our findings help in disentangling the individual and interactive roles of multiple drivers of plant invasions, with wide-ranging implications for management in this Himalayan region and similar landscapes elsewhere.

Forest carbon storage and sink estimates under different management scenarios in China from 2020 to 2100

Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change through carbon storage and sequestration, though environmental change drivers and management scenarios are likely to influence these contributions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we employed three tree growth models—the Richard, Hossfeld, and Korf models—that account for the biological characteristics of trees, alongside national forest inventory (NFI) datasets from 1994 to 2018, to evaluate the carbon sink potential of existing forests and afforested regions in China from 2020 to 2100, assuming multiple afforestation and forest management scenarios. Our results indicate that the Richard, Hossfeld, and Korf models provided a good fit for 26 types of vegetation biomass in both natural and planted Chinese forests. These models estimate that in 2020, carbon stocks in existing Chinese forests are 7.62 ± 0.05 Pg C, equivalent to an average of 44.32 ± 0.32 Mg C/ ha. Our predictions then indicate this total forest carbon stock is expected to increase to 15.51 ± 0.99 Pg C (or 72.26 ± 4.6 Mg C/ha) in 2060, and further to 19.59 ± 1.36 Pg C (or 91.31 ± 6.33 Mg C/ha) in 2100. We also show that plantation management measures, namely tree species replacement, would increase carbon sinks to 0.09 Pg C/ year (contributing 38.9 %) in 2030 and 0.06 Pg C/ year (contributing 32.4 %) in 2060. Afforestation using tree species with strong carbon sink capacity in existing plantations would further significantly increase carbon sinks from 0.02 Pg C/year (contributing 10.3 %) in 2030 to 0.06 Pg C/year (contributing 28.2 %) in 2060. Our results quantify the role plantation management plays in providing a strong increase in forest carbon sequestration at national scales, pointing to afforestation with native tree species with high carbon sequestration as key in achieving China's 2060 carbon neutrality target.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) evidence for frequent combustion events on land during the Permian–Triassic transition in Northwest China

The Siberian Traps large igneous province and intensive continental arc volcanism are regarded as the primary drivers of the severe environmental changes that triggered the end-Permian mass extinction. However, detailed correlations between volcanism and the collapse of terrestrial ecosystems remain ambiguous. This study used polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) records and mercury spikes from the terrestrial Dalongkou section as refined proxies for volcanic combustion events. The mercury anomalies, PAH concentrations, and PAH ratios provide insight into the terrestrial ecosystem collapse during the Permian–Triassic (P–T) transition. Based on the multiple PAH ratios, the source and composition of PAHs exhibit obvious pyrolytic-derived origins during the late Permian. Combined with the biostratigraphic records and our PAH proxies in the Dalongkou section, terrestrial ecosystems experienced stepwise crisis and change owing to volcanic effects and frequent high-temperature combustion events during the P–T transition. During the main terrestrial P–T crisis interval, the increased PAH concentrations indicate that the combustion events were gradually enhanced under worse climatic conditions. Based on the PAH records, enhanced soil erosion accompanied by frequent wildfires was found to occur under extremely high-temperature climatic conditions caused by intensive volcanic activity during the P–T transition.

Nonlinear life table response experiment analysis: Decomposing nonlinear and nonadditive population growth responses to changes in environmental drivers.

Life table response experiments (LTREs) decompose differences in population growth rate between environments into separate contributions from each underlying demographic rate. However, most LTRE analyses make the unrealistic assumption that the relationships between demographic rates and environmental drivers are linear and independent, which may result in diminished accuracy when these assumptions are violated. We extend regression LTREs to incorporate nonlinear (second-order) terms and compare the accuracy of both approaches for three previously published demographic datasets. We show that the second-order approach equals or outperforms the linear approach for all three case studies, even when all of the underlying vital rate functions are linear. Nonlinear vital rate responses to driver changes contributed most to population growth rate responses, but life history changes also made substantial contributions. Our results suggest that moving from linear to second-order LTRE analyses could improve our understanding of population responses to changing environments.

Rapid sea level rise causes loss of seagrass meadows

As global declines in seagrass populations continue to cause great concern, long-term assessment of seagrass meadows show promise in furnishing valuable clues into fundamental causes of seagrass loss and drivers of environmental change. Here we report two long-term records of seagrass presence in western Gulf of Mexico coastal waters (Laguna Madre) that provided insight into their rapid decline in a relatively pristine ecosystem. Coincident with unprecedented increases in water depth starting in 2014 (14–25 mm y−1), monthly measurements at a deep edge fixed station revealed that two ubiquitous seagrass species (Halodule wrightii and Syringodium filiforme) vanished altogether in just five years; a subsequent basin-wide assessment revealed that seagrasses disappeared at 23% of 144 sentinel stations. Models that incorporate differing sea level rise scenarios and water depth thresholds reveal potential global losses of seagrass habitat (14,000 km2), with expansion into newly created shallow habitats constrained by altered natural shorelines.

Addressing the challenge of wildlife conservation in urban landscapes by increasing human tolerance for wildlife

Abstract Urbanization is a key driver of global environmental change and is adversely impacting wildlife populations. Human tolerance for wildlife is critical to wildlife conservation in urban areas. Using metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, United States, as a case study, we investigated human tolerance for a range of different wildlife species. Almost half of the human–wildlife interactions that are reported to the state wildlife agency originate from metropolitan Atlanta, which is one of the fastest growing metropolises in the United States. We surveyed a representative sample of 1006 residents of metropolitan Atlanta in 2022. We found heterogeneity in respondents' tolerance for various species, although most respondents were intolerant of bobcats, coyotes, opossums and snakes. Respondents' tolerance for different species largely depended on their attitudes and emotions towards species, and their basic beliefs pertaining to wildlife and the relationships between humans and wildlife. We found some evidence that tolerance also depended on people's prior interactions with wildlife, their beliefs that they can mitigate conflicts with wildlife and their demographic characteristics. Our results suggest that communication that improves urban residents' attitudes towards wildlife and/or reinforces positive emotions towards wildlife may increase wildlife tolerance in urban areas. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Moving from ecological impacts to social vulnerability in data-scarce places

Managers need to trace social impacts and vulnerability caused by environmental change all the way to its driving forces to target key system components for intervention. However, most available scientific evidence deals with either the ecological impacts of direct drivers or the value of ecosystem benefits to people. Our matrix-based tool combines these types of evidence to make environmental management problems traceable through a structured yet flexible procedure. The tool consists of a series of matrices that sequentially link direct drivers of environmental change, landscapes, ecological conditions, benefits to people, and stakeholder types. Qualitative matrices result from the integration and synthesis of available evidence from literature reviews, and where data is scarce, these are used to elicit quantitative scores from expert opinion. Expert scoring of links and multiplication of matrices allow for estimating the impacts of each driver of environmental change on each stakeholder type and using this information as input to assess stakeholders’ vulnerability through impact-influence diagrams. Applying the tool to the Argentine Gran Chaco, a globally threatened ecoregion, yielded a transparent and reliable picture of this data-scarce place, with important management implications. Tracing stakeholder impacts back to direct drivers confirmed that further encroachment of cleared areas around indigenous lands will increase the vulnerability of this social group. Also, assessing confidence levels for every social-ecological link suggested that incentivizing peasant farmers to restore natural forage supply represents a management opportunity to reverse degradation. Our tool makes interdisciplinary frameworks of linked ecological and social systems operational so managers can use the best available knowledge of a place and account for uncertainty to make environmental management decisions.

The Impact of Household Dynamics on Land-Use Change in China: Past Experiences and Future Implications

Population is the main driver of land-system and environmental change. However, population is usually treated as a variable that only considers the population number, and multi-dimensional population structure is largely ignored. There has been a systematic transition of population structure in the past several decades, including changes in household structure, increasing aging populations, increasing divorce rates, and increasing human migration. All of these changes have direct or indirect impacts on land use and environmental issues. Here, taking China as an example and using statistical analysis, namely the Mann–Kendall trend test and a land-use-transition matrix, we examine the relationship between household dynamics and land-use change in China by examining changes in household structure and land-use changes in China between 1980 and 2020. The results show the following three groups of findings. (1) The number of households increased by 130.95% from 1980 to 2020, while the population only increased by 42.83%; the size of households decreased from 4.41 to 2.62 in China from 1982 to 2020; and the household dynamics varied from province to province, which is affected by urbanization rate and economic development. (2) Birth rates, divorce rates, population aging, and migration all affect household structure, which directly or indirectly affect changes in land-use systems. (3) The changes in China’s land use are interlinked and interact with changes in household structure, which is evident in the increase in Residential land use and the abandonment of arable land. The rising household number increased the area of urban and rural settlement, leading to the fragmentation of cultivated land and the reduction of ecological land. To regulate land-use change for sustainable development, future land-use planning should take into account the effect of household dynamics and should reduce the negative effects of household dynamics on land systems and environmental change.

Health Care Is Not Enough to Prevent Dementia.

With an aging population, an increase in cases of Alzheimer's disease and dementia worldwide poses a significant health burden. While we hope for a cure, preventing dementia by reducing risks is important for global population health. Prevention strategies are difficult to implement when facing inequality across the world for access to healthy lifestyles. An approach that centers on individual responsibility and health professional interventions for targeted groups may risk missing the policy and environmental drivers of change. Barriers and enablers need to be explored and interventions are needed at individual, structural and social levels to normalize mid-life risk reduction.

Fire-Induced Vegetation Dynamics: An In-Depth Discourse on Revealing Ecological Transformations of the Mahaban and Surrounding Forests

Since the Palaeozoic era, fire as a potent driver of environmental changes, has dramatically shaped the terrestrial ecosystems. Fire affects soil structure and composition, which in turn affects the floral diversity of an area. This research work aims to examine the impact of fire on vegetation and the physicochemical nature of the soil in fire-affected and fire-free sites across the Mahaban and the surrounding forests, Swabi District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Quadrat quantitative ecological techniques were used for vegetation sampling in fire-free and fire-affected sites. In total, 219 plant species belonging to 173 genera and 70 families were recorded. Among the 219 plant species, 173 species were recorded from fire-free sites and the remaining 122 species were from fire-affected sites. The incidence of fire results in elevated organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus, and lower calcium carbonate concentrations in the soil. The greatest species richness and evenness were observed across the fire-free sites. Our study concludes that the influence of edaphic and topographic factors on species richness varies between fire-affected and fire-free sites. Fire has significantly altered the nutrient availability in the studied region, and this is confirmed by soil analysis and vegetation research. It is suggested that further research in the field of fire ecology can produce valuable insights.

Long-term biomass dynamics of temperate forests in Europe after cessation of management

Forests can contribute to climate change mitigation by sequestering carbon when management intensity is reduced. However, there is high uncertainty regarding biomass dynamics in temperate forests after the cessation of management. We used forest inventory data from an extensive network of 224 plots in 37 natural forest reserves (NFR) covering a wide environmental gradient with mean annual temperatures ranging from 1 to 10.4 °C and mean annual precipitation ranging from 901 to 2317 mm. Inventories had been conducted approximately every 10 years during the last 60 years. We used mixed effect models to (i) analyse biomass development, (ii) assess the role of time since the cessation of management (TSCM) and (iii) disentangle the environmental and forest structural drivers of biomass change. After the cessation of management and in the absence of high-severity natural disturbances, biomass accumulated gradually along a saturation curve. There were large differences in biomass among reserves and plots, with values ranging from 101 Mg ha−1 to 851.2 Mg ha−1, with a median of 362.1 Mg ha−1 (SD = 122.5 Mg ha−1). The biomass curve did not yet tend towards an equilibrium, most likely because the majority of the NFRs do not exceed 100 years of TSCM. Compared to higher elevations, forests at lower, warmer sites showed a larger total biomass and higher rates of biomass accumulation. We found a reduction by 148 Mg ha−1 of biomass per 1000 m of elevation gain. The strongest positive rate of change (>8 Mg ha−1 year−1) was found in forests with high basal area (>60 m2 ha−1) and medium to high levels of tree density (1500 to 2000 stems ha−1). Overall, most reserves have not reached a biomass equilibrium yet and continue to act as carbon sinks in tree biomass. This highlights the carbon sequestration capacity of forest reserves and their role as carbon pools.

Perspectives on Drivers of Biodiversity and Environmental Changes in the Keta Lagoon Ramsar Site of Ghana

There is a general decline in biodiversity and the environment of coastal wetlands worldwide. Reasons for the decline obviously include overexploitation of wetland resources, climate change and industrialization, to mention but a few. This study used a purely qualitative approach using mainly focus group discussions (FDGs) in the framework of Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) to examine the changes occurring in the largest coastal wetland in Ghana—the Keta Lagoon Complex Ramsar Site (KLCRS). The results indicate that the state of the environment is bedevilled with species loss, increases in salinity, decreases in the physical size of fish species and many others. Pressures and related drivers were noted by the respondents. The results point to the fact that communities are not oblivious to the adaptation measures to implement in order to overcome the degradation of KLCRS. Overall, this study points to the fact that local communities have a good knowledge and understanding of their environment and are always in a position to offer ideas related to managing the environment if given the chance.

Population genomic structure of a widespread, urban-dwelling mammal: The eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis).

Urbanization is a persistent and widespread driver of global environmental change, potentially shaping evolutionary processes due to genetic drift and reduced gene flow in cities induced by habitat fragmentation and small population sizes. We tested this prediction for the eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis), a common and conspicuous forest-dwelling rodent, by obtaining 44K SNPs using reduced representation sequencing (ddRAD) for 403 individuals sampled across the species' native range in eastern North America. We observed moderate levels of genetic diversity, low levels of inbreeding, and only a modest signal of isolation-by-distance. Clustering and migration analyses show that estimated levels of migration and genetic connectivity were higher than expected across cities and forested areas, specifically within the eastern portion of the species' range dominated by urbanization, and genetic connectivity was less than expected within the western range where the landscape is fragmented by agriculture. Landscape genetic methods revealed greater gene flow among individual squirrels in forested regions, which likely provide abundant food and shelter for squirrels. Although gene flow appears to be higher in areas with more tree cover, only slight discontinuities in gene flow suggest eastern grey squirrels have maintained connected populations across urban areas in all but the most heavily fragmented agricultural landscapes. Our results suggest urbanization shapes biological evolution in wildlife species depending strongly on the composition and habitability of the landscape matrix surrounding urban areas.

Different sets of traits determine transition of alien species along the invasion continuum

Invasive alien species are currently considered as one of the dominant drivers of global environmental change. Till now, the majority of studies have focused on single or a few traits of alien species that facilitate their invasion. Also inclusion of all the traits which determine the transition of aliens along the different stages of invasion continuum (casual, naturalised and invasive) has remained largely overlooked. In this study, we collected a comprehensive trait dataset on 144 alien plant species of Kashmir Himalaya – a global biodiversity hotspot region. To test which traits of alien species, individually or in combination along with anthropogenic factors, determine their transition along the invasion continuum, we employed chi-square tests, boosted regression trees and phylogenetic methods. We found the perennial life span, longer residence time, greater number of introduced regions, and better seed dispersal mechanism were critical in determining the transition from casual to naturalised. The herbaceous growth form, therophyte Raunkiaer life-form, annual life span, achene fruit, longer residence time and broader introduced range were the species' traits determining transition from naturalised to invasive. Aliens introduced as ornamentals have more propensity to become naturalised; whereas aliens introduced unintentionally show overrepresentation at the invasive stage. Phylogeny alone showed mixed results indicating both clustering and dispersion; however, in combination with other traits, it plays a significant role in determining the stage of invasion. Overall, our study disentangles the individual and interactive roles of multiple traits that determine the transition of alien species' along the invasion continuum. Further, we foresee the potential applicability of our findings in designing robust invasion risk analysis protocols and stage-specific invasion management strategies in this Himalayan region, with learnings for elsewhere in the world.

Growing-season drought and nitrogen addition interactively impair grassland ecosystem stability by reducing species diversity, asynchrony, and stability

Aboveground net primary productivity controls the amount of energy available to sustain all living organisms, and its sustainable provision relies on the stability of grassland ecosystems. Human activities leading to global changes, such as increased nitrogen (N) deposition and the more frequent occurrence of extreme precipitation events, with N addition increasing the sensitivity of ecosystem production stability to changes in the precipitation regime. However, whether N addition, in combination with seasonal precipitation increases or severe drought, affects ecosystem stability remains unclear. In this study, we conducted a six-year environmental change monitoring experiment in a semiarid grassland in northern China to test the effects of N addition, seasonal drought, and precipitation increases on the temporal stability of ecosystem productivity. Our study revealed that an interaction between drought and N addition reduced species diversity, species asynchrony, species stability, and thus ecosystem stability. These environmental change drivers (except for precipitation increase) induced a positive relationship between species asynchrony and diversity, whereas N addition interactively with drought and precipitation increase led to a negative relationship between diversity and species stability. Only N addition interactively with drought induced a positive species diversity–ecosystem stability relationship because lower species stability was overcome by increased species asynchrony. Our study is great importance to illustrate that production temporal stability tends to be inhibited with drought, though interactively with nutrient N addition. These findings highlight the primary role of asynchronous dynamics among species in modulating the effects of environmental change on diversity-stability relationships.