Drawdown Period Research Articles

Unrealized Expectations for Restoration of a Floodplain Plant Community

The ongoing restoration of the channelized Kissimmee River is expected to promote reestablishment of the prolonged, deep inundation regimes that sustained broadleaf marsh as the dominant wetland plant community on the historical floodplain. The success of the restoration was evaluated at locations on the remnant floodplain where broadleaf marsh had been replaced by a mesophytic shrub community, and on the lower portion of the reconstructed floodplain, which was recreated by backfilling of a flood control canal and degradation of associated spoil mounds. During the 8-year post-restoration period (2001–2008) mean annual hydroperiods and depths on the restored floodplain were not significantly different from pre-channelization hydrologic conditions at historical reference sites. Increased hydroperiods and depths eliminated the mesophytic shrub (primarily Myrica cerifera) and associated fern cover, and led to colonization of floating and mat-forming species, but did not result in the reestablishment of a broadleaf marsh community. Signature broadleaf marsh species, Sagittaria lancifolia and Pontederia cordata, were found in all remnant floodplain plots and colonized 8 of the 10 reconstructed floodplain plots, but had mean cover ranging from only 0.9 to 6.1%. Several factors may have contributed to unsuccessful reestablishment of broadleaf marsh, including unfavorable edaphic conditions, brief drawdown (low stage) periods for establishment of seedlings, flood induced mortality, and an invasion of the exotic shrub, Ludwigia peruviana, which had post-restoration mean cover of 17–19%. Study results indicate hydrologic restoration of floodplain plant communities can be influenced by more discrete aspects of the river flood pulse than average hydroperiods and depths.

Optimal Drought Management Using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming with a Hedging Rule

This study develops procedures that calculate optimal water release curtailments during droughts using a future value function derived with a sampling stochastic dynamic programming model. Triggers that switch between a normal operating policy and an emergency operating policy (EOP) are based on initial reservoir storage values representing a 95% water supply reliability and an aggregate drought index that employs 6-month cumulative rainfall and 4-month cumulative streamflow. To verify the effectiveness of the method, a cross-validation scheme (using 2,100 combination sets) is employed to simulate the Geum River basin system in Korea. The simulation results demonstrate that the EOP approach: (1) reduces the maximum water shortage; (2) is most valuable when the initial storages of the drawdown period are low; and (3) is superior to other approaches when explicitly considering forecast uncertainty.

표본 추계학적 동적계획법을 사용한 한강수계 저수지 운영시스템 개발

한국수자원공사는 낙동강 및 금강수계에 대해 실시간 물관리 시스템을 개발하여 수계 내 다목적 댐의 효율적인 운영을 도모하였다. 본 연구에서는 이를 확장하여 최적화 기법인 표본 추계학적 동적계획법을 사용하여 한강수계 다목적댐의 효율적인 월말 목표저수량을 산정하고 이를 통해 실시간 물관리시스템의 효율을 극대화하고자 수행되었다. 수계 내 댐중 저수용량과 용수공급 측면에서 중요도가 높은 소양강댐, 충주댐, 화천댐 등 3개 댐만을 대상으로 모형을 개발하였으며 저수량 상태변수의 민감도 분석 결과를 통해 저수량 상태변수 개수를 설정하였다. 본 연구를 통해 제시된 최적화모형을 통한 운영률과 한국수자원공사의 운영목표수위에 의한 저수지 운영방식과 비교를 실시한 결과 연평균 37.22 MCM의 수계 내 요구용수 부족량 감소효과와 더불어 발전량 측면에서도 연간 171 GWh가 증가하는 것을 확인하였다. 또한 이수기 저수지 운영계획 시스템을 실제 적용한 결과 2007년~2008년 이수기 동안 전력생산, 수질개선 등을 위한 추가적인 용수공급이 가능하다는 것을 확인하였다. 이러한 실제 적용사례를 통해 SSDP 모형과 이수기 저수지운영 시스템의 그 유용성을 타진할 수 있었으며 다른 수계로 확장을 실시한다면 보다 합리적인 저수지 운영계획이 가능할 것으로 기대한다. Korea water resources corporation (K-Water) has developed the real-time water resources management system for the Nakdong and the Geum River basin to efficiently operate multi-purpose dams in the basins. This study has extended to the Han River basin for providing an effective ending target storage of a month to the real-time water resources management system using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SSDP), consequently increasing the efficiency of the reservoir system. The optimization model were developed for three reservoirs, named Soyang, Chungju, and Hwacheon, with high priority in terms of the amounts of effective capacity and water supply for the basin. The number of storage state variable for each dam to set an optimization problem has been assigned from the results of sensitivity analysis. Compared with the K-water operating policy with the target water supply elevations, the optimization model suggested in this study showed that the shortfalls are decreased by 37.22 MCM/year for the required water demands in the basin, even increasing 171 GWh in hydro electronic power generation. In addition, the result of a reservoir operating system during the drawdown period applied to real situation demonstrates that additional releases for water quality or hydro electronic power generation would be possible during the drawdown period between 2007 and 2008. On the basis of these simulation results, the applicability of the SSDP model and the reservoir operating system is proved. Therefore, the more efficient reservoir operation can be achieved if the reservoir operating system is extended further to other Korean basins.

Environmental Correlates of Breeding in the Crested Caracara (Caracara cheriway)

ABSTRACT. We evaluated the influence of weather on reproduction of the Crested Caracara (Caracara cheriway) in an agricultural landscape in south-central Florida. We used a mixed logistic-regression modeling approach within an information-theoretic framework to examine the influence of total rainfall, rainfall frequency, and temperature on the number of breeding pairs, timing of breeding, nest success, and productivity of Crested Caracaras during 1994–2000. The best models indicated an influence of rainfall frequency and laying period on reproduction. More individuals nested and more pairs nested earlier during years with more frequent rainfall in late summer and early fall. Pairs that nested later in each breeding season had smaller clutches, lower nest success and productivity, and higher probability of nest failure. More frequent rainfall during early spring months that are usually characterized by water deficit (March–May), more frequent rainfall during the fall drawdown period (September–November), a...

Dynamic Asset Allocation of Hedge Funds

This paper describes how macroeconomic factors are used to aid in the decision-making process of allocating capital to hedge fund managers (applicable to traditional managers as well). A comparison is made between traditional portfolio construction methods and the Dynamic Asset Allocation methodology used in this paper to determine how each portfolio would have performed during the drawdown period in the 4th quarter of 2008. Our proprietary tools use the patented technology in DynaPorte to combine both macroeconomic factors with market risk factors to determine not only what factors influence returns at a given time, but also what may be influencing a manager's behavior during varying macroeconomic periods.

Assessing the impacts and potential control of terrestrial plant colonization of a reservoir bed during an extreme drawdown event

AbstractExtended periods of drawdown of reservoirs can result in the ‘terrestrialization’ of the lake bottom sediments, which describes the process whereby the exposed dry sediment takes on soil‐like qualities. Opportunistic colonization of lake bed by terrestrial plants can occur under such conditions. A survey of plant communities of a large reservoir (Lake Hume) following its extreme drawdown, resulted in significant quantities of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus being bound up in the terrestrial vegetation that colonized the lake bed. The phosphorus uptake from the sediment into plant material particularly could represent a significant pathway for phosphorus re‐mobilization back into the lake. The potential of using stock grazing as a control measure for mitigating the effects of terrestrial plant colonization is also discussed.

Phosphorus dynamics in the ditch system of a restored peat wetland

The restoration of wetlands as bird habitats often involves the maintenance of a fluctuating water regime by careful, localised ditch water management using pumps and sluices. However, there is evidence in the literature to suggest that alternate flood/drainage cycles can accelerate nutrient cycling and transport within the soil and, therefore, pose a threat to water quality through the process of eutrophication. This study focused on the dynamics and losses of soil P in a recently re-wetted, eutrophic fen peat developed on alluvium in south west England. During the 2-year study (2001 and 2002), soil water tensiometry revealed that the field water table (fluctuating annually between +20 and −60 cm relative to ground level) was extensively influenced across most of the 8.4 ha field site by the management of the adjacent ditch water levels. This conservation-led, prescribed water balance was facilitated by the high hydraulic conductivity (1.1 × 10 −5 m s −1) of the lower (70–140 cm), degraded layer of peat. However, only during a 7-day period of water table drawdown by intermittent pump drainage, approximately 45 g ha −1 of dissolved reactive P (DRP) entered the pumped ditch from the field via this degraded layer. Summer rainfall events >35 mm d −1 also coincided with significant peaks in ditch water P concentration (up to 200 μg L −1 DRP). Even larger peaks (up to 700 μg L −1 DRP) occurred with the annual onset of autumn reflooding. These episodic P loss events pose a serious potential threat to biological water quality.

Distribution, species composition and management implications of seed banks in southern New England coastal plain ponds

Buried seeds that germinate during periods of low water or water level drawdown can play important roles in shaping plant community composition, community dynamics and species richness in ecosystems with fluctuating water levels. Northeastern US coastal plain ponds have fluctuating water levels and contain a characteristic shoreline flora that contains many rare plants. The objectives of this study were to: (1) test whether geographically distant ponds in Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard had distinct seed banks, (2) determine if hydrologic status as permanent and ephemeral ponds led to differences in seed banks, and (3) examine seed diversity and seed abundance across gradients of shoreline elevations and sediment characteristics. Viable seeds of 45 plant species were identified from nine ponds. Native species dominated pond-shore seed banks and made up 89–100% of all species. There was high overlap in seed bank composition across hydrological classes and geographic regions. One hydrological class captured 73–76% of total species and one geographical region captured 69–78% of the total species recovered from the entire suite of seed bank samples. Seeds were relatively evenly distributed along the shorelines of ephemeral ponds but seed diversity and abundance were lower at low elevations in permanent ponds. Results suggest that strategies to protect pond shorelines to capture maximum diversity of coastal plain pond plants contained in pond sediment seed banks should be implemented across pond hydrologic classes and across a wide geographic area. Shoreline seed distributions indicate that ground-water withdrawals or climate changes that lower pond water levels in permanent ponds will reduce the diversity and abundance of plants recovered from seed banks by shifting water levels to a shoreline zone of high sediment organic matter where seed densities are lower. This effect will be much less in ephemeral ponds where seed diversity and abundance on pond bottoms was high.

Breaking Setaria parviflora seed dormancy by nitrates and light is part of a mechanism that detects a drawdown period after flooding

We explored the hypothesis that, in flood-prone habitats, nitrates can signal to seeds that a drawdown period has begun. To investigate this issue, Setaria parviflora (Poir.) Kerguélen seeds were buried in a never-flooded upland and a nearby, flood-prone lowland grassland. Seeds were exhumed during the flooding period. Additionally, grassland mesocosms with buried S. parviflora seeds were flooded during 20 d (controls drained). After both field and mesocosm pretreatments germination was assayed in laboratory at 25 °C in a medium with or without nitrates, under red light pulses or in darkness. Seeds exhumed from the never-flooded upland showed no specific requirements to germinate. In contrast, seeds exhumed from the flooded lowland germinated ca. 65% when nitrates were combined with red light pulses, significantly higher than in the rest of the treatments. Seeds exhumed from drained mesocosms germinated equally in all treatments. However, in the seeds exhumed from the flooded mesocosms, nitrates increased germination by more than 20% compared with seeds imbibed in water. Seeds germinated ca. 85% when nitrates were combined with red light pulses, significantly higher than in the other treatments. We can conclude that after flooding, S. parviflora seeds require nitrate and light to germinate. Therefore, a large fraction of seeds do not germinate unless nitrates are combined with light, indicating a drawdown period after floods and vegetation gaps.

Machine Learning in FX Carry Basket Prediction

Articial Neural Networks (ANN), Sup- port Vector Machines (SVM) and Relevance Vector Machines (RVM) were used to predict daily returns for an FX carry basket. Market observable exogenous variables known to have a relationship with the bas- ket along with lags of the basket's return were used as inputs into these methods. Combinations of these networks were used in a committee and simple trad- ing rules based on this amalgamated output were used to predict when carry basket returns would be nega- tive for a day and hence a trader should go short this long-biased asset. The eect of using the networks for regression to predict actual returns was compared to their use as classiers to predict whether the fol- lowing day's return would be up or down. Assuming highly conservative estimates of trading costs, over the 10.5 year (2751 trading day) rolling out of sample period investigated, improvements of 120% in MAR ratio, 110% in Sortino and 80% in Sharpe relative to the 'Always In' benchmark were found. Furthermore, the extent of the maximum draw-down was reduced by 19% and the longest draw-down period was 53% shorter.

Environmental decision support system development for seasonal wetland salt management in a river basin subjected to water quality regulation

Seasonally managed wetlands in the Grasslands Basin on the west-side of California’s San Joaquin Valley provide food and shelter for migratory wildfowl during winter months and sport for waterfowl hunters during the annual duck season. Surface water supply to these wetlands contain salt which, when drained to the San Joaquin River (SJR) during the annual drawdown period, can negatively impact water quality and cause concern to downstream agricultural riparian water diverters. Recent environmental regulation, limiting discharges salinity to the SJR and primarily targeting agricultural non-point sources, now also targets return flows from seasonally managed wetlands. Real-time water quality management has been advocated as a means of continuously matching salt loads discharged from agricultural, wetland and municipal operations to the assimilative capacity of the SJR. Past attempts to build environmental monitoring and decision support systems (EDSS’s) to implement this concept have enjoyed limited success for reasons that are discussed in this paper. These reasons are discussed in the context of more general challenges facing the successful implementation of a comprehensive environmental monitoring, modelling and decision support system for the SJR Basin.

Drivers of water quality in a large water storage reservoir during a period of extreme drawdown

This study examined the drivers of water quality in a large water storage reservoir (Lake Hume) during a period of extreme drawdown (to less than 3% of capacity). During the period of extreme drawdown, the reservoir can be thought of as consisting of three separate but inter-related parcels of water. The warm surface mixed layer was about 6 m deep. Cold water inflows from the Mitta Mitta River undershot the surface mixed layer in the Mitta Mitta arm of the reservoir and flowed along the bottom of the reservoir to the Dam Wall without substantial interaction with the surface mixed layer. When inflows from the Murray River occurred, the temperature of these inflows was similar to that of the surface mixed layer within the dam and the flows appeared to move within the surface mixed layer towards the Dam Wall. These Murray River inflows were insufficient to promote total mixing of the surface and bottom waters. The Murray River arm of the reservoir became a ‘hot spot’ for nutrient production. Stratification and subsequent anoxic conditions promoted the release of nutrients – ammonium, organic N and total P – from the sediments into the overlying hypolimnion. Because the depth of the lake was relatively shallow due to the extreme drawdown, wind driven events lead to a substantial deepening (turnover) of the thermocline allowing periodic pulses of nutrients into the warm surface layer. These nutrient pulses appeared to stimulate cyanobacterial growth. Warm inflows from the Murray River then served to push the blooms formed in the Murray arm into the main body of the lake.

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation on Operation of the Capilano Water Supply Reservoir, Vancouver, British Columbia

The magnitude and duration of low reservoir inflows in the summer and early fall are critical for water supply planning and operations for the Greater Vancouver Regional District (now Metro Vancouver). The influence of climate fluctuations on summer and fall reservoir inflows was investigated and a reservoir operation model developed to simulate Capilano Reservoir operations. Flow records for the gauge on the Capilano River above Intake were adjusted to account for releases from the upstream Palisade Lake. It was found that reservoir inflows for the June to September period are affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The 15 lowest June to September inflows over the period of gauge records have all been associated with warm or neutral ENSO conditions typically combined with warm or neutral PDO conditions. Annual reservoir drawdown, defined as the annual extended period of no spill, was used as an indicator of stress on reservoir operations. Simulation of reservoir inflows and outflows from 1914 to 2005 showed that the longest reservoir drawdown durations were almost always associated with warm ENSO and warm PDO conditions. The shortest periods of drawdown were normally associated with both cool ENSO and cool PDO conditions. Due to the storage effects, reservoir drawdown is a good indicator of periodic climate variations because of amplification, similar to the sensitivity of glaciers to climate episodes.

Optimizing Operational Policies of a Korean Multireservoir System Using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

This study presents state-of-the-art optimization techniques for enhancing reservoir operations which use sampling stochastic dynamic programming (SSDP) with ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). SSDP used with historical inflow scenarios (SSDP/Hist) derives an off-line optimal operating policy through a backward-moving solution procedure. In contrast, SSDP used with monthly forecasts of ESP (SSSDP/ESP) reoptimizes the off-line policy. These stochastic models are used to derive a monthly joint operating policy during the drawdown period of the Geum River multireservoir system in Korea. A cross-validation test of 1,900 simulation runs demonstrates that: (1) proposed stochastic models that explicitly include inflow uncertainty are superior to those that do not; (2) updating policy with ESP forecasts is appropriate in this reservoir system; (3) the lower dam of the Geum River multireservoir system should maintain elevation of 66.5m during the beginning of the drawdown period to avoid significant increase in the downstream water shortages; and (4) forecasting accuracy may result in considerable effects on joint reservoir operations.

Habitat characterization and geospatial metapopulation dynamics of threatened floodplain species Boltonia decurrens using a GIS

Abstract The flood pulse of the Illinois River (Illinois, USA) has been distorted and the floodplain extensively modified as a result of human activity. This activity has changed the historic flood regime from moderate, late winter-early spring flood pulses, followed by a summer drawdown period, to a chaotic hydrology with floods occurring throughout the year. Boltonia decurrens (Torrey and Gray, Wood), federally listed as a threatened species, is endemic to the Illinois River floodplain. The species occurs as a large metapopulation; however, flood regime and habitat alteration have substantially reduced the size and number of populations within the metapopulation. We developed a geographic information system (GIS) to analyze habitat and geospatial population dynamics for B. decurrens. We analyzed floodplain land cover, identified specific wetland patches supporting B. decurrens, quantified habitat availability, habitat pattern, and analyzed the distribution of populations and individuals by wetland type ...

Temporary floating island formation maintains wetland plant species richness: The role of the seed bank

In wetlands, fluctuating water levels create opportunities for recruitment of new individuals from seed banks, and drawdown periods often favor the establishment of species adapted for life in shallow water. In this study, floating island formation functioned similarly to drawdowns in water level by creating patches of sediment that were less inundated relative to the surrounding deep water marsh. The disturbance of floating island formation (i.e., mats of sediment and vegetation rising vertically in the water column) also resulted in reduced cover of the dominant rooted, floating-leaved macrophyte, thereby creating temporary gaps for the establishment of other species. To assess how floating island formation influences species richness and composition of wetland plant assemblages relative to surrounding deep water marsh, field surveys of plant percent cover on and off of islands were conducted over 2 years, along with a controlled greenhouse seed bank experiment in which levels of inundation were manipulated. Five plant species were present in deep water marsh compared to 22 in surrounding on floating islands. Plant assemblages on floating islands consisted primarily of emergent species, while floating-leaved perennials dominated the deep water marsh. Species richness and assemblage composition in the greenhouse seed bank experiment differed among water level treatments in a manner consistent with differences observed in field surveys. Assemblages germinating under minimal inundation treatments were more species rich (3.5–4.3 species per sample) and contained more emergent species (>450 individuals m −2) than did those germinating under flooded conditions (2.8–2.9 species per sample and <405 individuals m −2). This study, in addition to being the only reported seed bank study of temporary (i.e., seasonal) floating islands, demonstrates that islands altered levels of inundation favoring the germination of more species-rich, emergent wetland plant assemblages. Because these islands persisted long enough for several species to set seed, their formation may be one mechanism by which the seed bank is replenished and populations of otherwise uncommon species are maintained.

이수기 저수지 운영을 위한 앙상블 유량예측의 효용성

Korea Water Resources Corporation(KOWACO) has developed the Integrated Real-time Water Management System(IRWMS) that calculates monthly optimal ending target storages by using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming(SSDP) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction(ESP) running on the day of each month. This system, however, has a shortcoming: it cannot reflect the hydrolmeteorologic variations in the middle of the month. To overcome this drawback, in this study updated ESP forecasts three times each month by using the observed precipitation series from the day of the month to the forecast day and the historical precipitation ensemble for the remaining days. The improved accuracy and its effect on the reservoir operations were quantified as a result. SSDP/ESP21 that reflects within-a-month hydrolmeteorologic states saves in water shortage on average than SSDP/ESP01. In addition, the simulation result demonstrated that the effect of ESP accuracy on the reduction of water shortage became more important when the total runoff was low during the drawdown period.

Left upstream slope design for the Çatalan Dam, Adana, Turkey and its behaviour under actual earthquake loading

An investigation and remediation of instability along upstream cut slopes for an earthfill dam in differentially weathered rock in southern Turkey is described. The major instability problem was a 45-m high and 200-m long previously cut slope next to the main axis of the dam, above the diversion tunnels and water outlet structures. The slope was first designed and excavated in 1986 based on the temporary berm approach. Rising water level in the reservoir would change the shear strength parameters and the pore-water pressure in the slope; thus, probable deep failure would damage the entrance of the diversion tunnels and water outlet structures, as well as the earthfill embankment of the dam. In June 1996, the slope face was re-excavated and protected against wave erosion by placement of a layer of rock riprap over a layer of bedding and a filter material. A strong earthquake ( M S = 6.2) occurred during a period of rapid drawdown in 27 June 1998. The slope remained stable, although numerous tension cracks developed in Quaternary terrace deposits near the reservoir area.

How does the propagule bank contribute to cyclic vegetation change in a lakeshore marsh with seasonal drawdown?

Lakeshore marshes around Liangzi Lake, in the middle reach of the Yangtze River, China, experience annual changes of water level of c. 1.5 m. During the drawdown period, the vegetation is structured by helophytes and emergents; during the rainy season when the dams are closed (June–September) the marshes are flooded and their vegetation rapidly changes to be come dominated by submerged, floating-leaved and tall emergent species. The species composition and abundance of both the marsh seed bank and the vegetative propagule bank were compared with those of the drawdown and flooded vegetation types. These data provided a test of the predictive power of van der Valk's model of northern temperate seasonal vegetation change in a subtropical, freshwater wetland with cyclic vegetational change. The abundant species were detected in the propagule bank. The seed bank was found to determine the species richness of both types of the vegetation, whereas the vegetative propagule bank consisted of the dominants of the drawdown vegetation. Water depth conditions, and the composition of seed and vegetative propagules banks together determine the structure of the standing vegetation during drawdown and flooding. van der Valk's succession model was found to predict the seasonal vegetation change reasonably well. The Chi-square test showed no significant difference between predicted vegetation and actual vegetation in both drawdown and flooding periods.

Flood pulse influence and anthropic impact on the chemical composition and energy content of Oryza glumaepatula in an Amazonian lake

The aim of this research was to study the flood pulse influence and the anthropic impact caused by bauxite tailings on the chemical composition of O. glumaepatula in Batata lake (PA, Brazil). Sampling was carried out in stands of O. glumaepatula in the low-water, filling, high-water, and drawdown periods in impacted and natural areas of Batata lake. During the low-water and drawdown periods the stands of O. glumaepatula were exposed, and in the filling and high-water periods the water depth was respectively 1.4 and 3.8 m. The collected material was dried at 70 degrees C, ground, and concentrations of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, organic carbon, and energy content were determined. The results indicate that the biomass increase, caused by the rise in water level, has a dilution effect on nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in O. glumaepatula. The energy contents did not present significant differences in any of the studied periods. The results suggest that from the low water to filling period, nitrogen becomes more limiting to O. glumaepatula in the impacted area, whereas phosphorus becomes more limiting in the natural area. The population of O. glumaepatula contributes to the recovery of the impacted area of Batata lake as the detritus from this species accumulates over the sediment. This accumulation impedes future re-suspension of the bauxite tailings and increases the organic matter and nutrient concentrations in the impacted sediment.