Drawdown Of Reservoir Water Level Research Articles

Analysis of seepage failure probability for high core rockfill dams during rapid drawdown of reservoir water level

Rapid drawdown (RDD) is an abnormal reservoir flood control operation that may cause seepage failure of high core rockfill dams. In this paper, a novel framework combining Bayesian inference and transient unsaturated seepage simulation is proposed to evaluate the seepage failure probability of the core during RDD. The dynamic hydraulic boundaries utilized in the simulation are first determined by the performance of water release structures. The extreme learning machine (ELM) is then employed as the surrogate model to establish the mapping relationship between material parameters with simulated seepage pressure and hydraulic gradient. The Bayesian inference method is applied to characterize the uncertainty of material parameters based on seepage monitoring data. Finally, the posterior distribution samples of random parameters are utilized to calculate the seepage failure probability of the core. The seepage safety of the core under different drawdown rates is studied with a real 186 m high core rockfill dam. The results reveal that a faster RDD rate can lead to an increased probability of seepage failure. The maximum failure probability is 35.56 % for the four release structures working together (about 0.316 m/h), higher than 23.16 % for the three release structures (about 0.165 m/h). It is also found that the peak of seepage failure probability often occurs in the middle stage of RDD. Therefore, to ensure the safety of the project, it is important to control the RDD rate and carefully monitor the seepage pressure. From the point of view of seepage failure, the proposed method for evaluating the safety of core rockfill dams under RDD is of high guiding significance to the risk assessment of similar projects under extreme conditions.

The long-term failure processes of a large reactivated landslide in the Xiluodu reservoir area based on InSAR technology

After the first impoundment of the reservoir, many landslides seriously threatened the safety of the reservoir. Accurate determination of the relationship between the landslide deformation characteristics and water-level fluctuations is crucial. However, with the increasing number of water-level fluctuation cycles, the deformation characteristics of the landslides were also changing, and long-term continuous monitoring to capture the failure process of reservoir landslides is necessary. A large reacted landslide in the Xiluodu reservoir was set as an example, using InSAR technology to seek its variations of deformation characteristics over nine years. The local deformation rate and annual maximum deformation area variation were analyzed by InSAR technology based on Sentinel-1 descending SAR data from October 2014 to June 2022. According to the regional deformation characteristics, the landslide was divided into three zones: Zone I above the elevation of 950 m; Zone II below it; the front edge of Zone II, where the collapse happened, was further divided into Zone III. In general, the accumulated deformation in Zone I was the largest, followed by Zone III, and Zone II was the smallest. The average deformation rate of Zone II was the smallest. Zone I of NLJL was mainly affected by the drawdown of reservoir water level, and the impacts of water-level rising and drawdown on Zone II and Zone III were similar. After analyzing a nine-year variation of the deformation area, the deformation mechanism of NLJL changed from a retrogressive type to a progressive one after the first impoundment and then changed back to a retrogressive one after 2017. The impact of reservoir impoundment on NLJL was most substantial in the first three years after the first impoundment.

Characterization of sliding surface deformation and stability evaluation of landslides with fiber–optic strain sensing nerves

Deformation monitoring of sliding zones or surfaces is of great significance to investigate evolution stages and triggering factors of landslides. The fiber–optic strain sensing cables, similar to human nerves, are capable of capturing slight movements in a distributed sensing and nearly real–time manner. However, the interaction between fiber–optic strain sensing nerves and surrounding geomaterials under shearing remains unclear. In this study, a novel analytical methodology for interpreting the cable–soil interaction under shear deformation and a reliable solution to calculate the shear displacements of critical interfaces in landslides are presented. The feasibility of the proposed method is proven through laboratory shear tests and later applied to calculate the shear displacements of the Majiagou landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir region, China. Finally, the empirical relationships between the measured strains and factors of safety are established. It is proved that the reservoir water level drawdown and rainfall cause accelerated shear deformation of this landslide.

Analysis of Landslides Stability Influenced by the Heavy Rainfall and Drawdown of Reservoir Water Level in Three Gorges Reservoir

Heavy rainfall and reservoir drawdown rate are primary factors when evaluating landslide stability. This paper intends to ensure the feasibility of increasing reservoir drawdown rate before flood season influenced by those two factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area. At first, a heavy rainfall was calculated by Pearson type ? distribution (PE3) using rainfall data of 20 counties from 1960 to 2010. Based on the reservoir operation, annual rainfall data was divided into four groups and calculated separately. The parameters of PE3 were estimated by curve fitting method and validated by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Then a reservoir drawdown model was proposed considering the actual regulation of reservoir. At last, a seepage-slope analysis was carried out using extreme rainfall and reservoir drawdown model on Sifangbai landslide. The extreme rainfall results show that the extreme rainfall during flood season was 2.5, 1.4 and 2.2 times greater than that in other three parts. Stability analysis showed that the landslide stability was mainly influenced by reservoir drawdown. Total time and elevation in rapid drawdown model would reduce with the increase of reservoir drawdown rate. With extreme rainfall data and reservoir drawdown model provided in this paper, similar partially submerged landslides in the TGR can be evaluated before increasing reservoir drawdown rate.

Deformation characteristics, mechanisms, and influencing factors of hydrodynamic pressure landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir: a case study and model test study

Hydrodynamic Pressure landslides are the most typical landslides affected by the water level in the Three Gorges Reservoir. These types of landslides are large and cause severe deformation. Therefore, they may significantly affect the safe operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir once losing stability. Taking the Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir as a typical case, this study explored the deformation characteristics and influencing factors of the Hydrodynamic Pressure landslide using monitoring data of its surface deformation, 17 years of GPS displacement data, automatic displacement metre of surface cracks, and groundwater level. To determine the deformation mechanism of the Hydrodynamic Pressure landslide, the model of Hydrodynamic Pressure landslide was designed and carried out to simulate the fluctuation of reservoir water level. The results showed that the hydrodynamic pressure landslides deformation was mainly affected by the overall deformation of the front edge of the landslide, and the amount of deformation was relatively large. The back part of the landslide mainly encountered tensile deformation. The Hydrodynamic Pressure landslides are a typical retrogressive deformation. The deformation of Hydrodynamic Pressure landslide was affected by the periodic change in the reservoir water level and the overall deformation trend is increasing. The intrinsic factor influencing the deformation of the hydrodynamic pressure landslide is the low permeability coefficient of the sliding mass, and the extrinsic factor is the drawdown of the reservoir water level. When the reservoir water table drawdown occurred, there was a noticeable water level difference with the underground water level in the landslide mass and generated hydrodynamic pressure. The Hydrodynamic Pressure landslide model results showed that the pore-water pressure, effective stress, and groundwater level in the landslide were consistent with the reservoir water level but with noticeable hysteresis. The key hydrodynamic factor for the deformation of this type of landslide was the hydrodynamic pressure towards the outside of the slope, formed when the reservoir water level dropped. Moreover, it was found that the faster reservoir water-level drawdown rates led to an increased influence on the stability of the landslide.

Characterizing the Development Pattern of a Colluvial Landslide Based on Long-Term Monitoring in the Three Gorges Reservoir

Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in June 2003, the fluctuation of the reservoir water level coupled with rainfall has resulted in more than 2500 landslides in this region. Among these instability problems, most colluvial landslides exhibit slow-moving patterns and pose a significant threat to local people and channel navigation. Advanced monitoring techniques are therefore implemented to investigate landslide deformation and provide insights for the subsequent countermeasures. In this study, the development pattern of a large colluvial landslide, locally named the Ganjingzi landslide, is analyzed on the basis of long-term monitoring. To understand the kinematic characteristics of the landslide, an integrated analysis based on real-time and multi-source monitoring, including the global navigation satellite system (GNSS), crackmeters, inclinometers, and piezometers, was conducted. The results indicate that the Ganjingzi landslide exhibits a time-variable response to the reservoir water fluctuation and rainfall. According to the supplement of community-based monitoring, the evolution of the landslide consists of three stages, namely the stable stage before reservoir impoundment, the initial movement stage of retrogressive failure, and the shallow movement stage with stepwise acceleration. The latter two stages are sensitive to the drawdown of reservoir water level and rainfall infiltration, respectively. All of the monitoring approaches used in this study are significant for understanding the time-variable pattern of colluvial landslides and are essential for landslide mechanism analysis and early warning for risk mitigation.

Slope stability analysis considering seepage and stress coupling under water level fluctuation

The reservoir water level fluctuation is an important factor inducing the reaction of pore-water pressure, seepage and at last resulting in instability and failure of the slope. A typical homogeneous slope is conducted as an example in this paper, the seepage and stress coupling effect is considered, and the slope stability calculation and analysis are carried out by using the finite element stress method. The results demonstrate that the factor of safety increases with the reservoir water level rises, and then gradually changes from decrease to stabilization. It should be noted that the factor of safety decreases slightly during the initial stage of water level rising at the speed of 0.2 m/d, which the slope will probably lose its stability. On the other, the factor of safety changes from decrease to increase along with the reservoir water level drawdown, and then gradually tends to stabilization. There is a minimum factor of safety when the water level is at about 1/4 of the slope height, and the minimum factor of safety decreases with increasing drawdown speed, just as the factor of safety decreases from 0.83 to 0.73 when the drawdown speed is increased from 0.20 m/d to 5.0 m/d.

A siphon drainage method for stabilizing bank slopes under water drawdown condition

Drawdown of reservoir water level is unfavorable to the bank slope stability due to the large seepage force. In this paper, the siphon drainage method is proposed to decrease the water table as well as the seepage force in the bank slope. The novelty of the siphon drainage used in the bank slope is that it will automatically start working when the drawdown of the reservoir water level occurs. To validate the feasibility of the proposed method, a numerical method which combines GeoStudio and spreadsheet is used to investigate the pore water pressure distribution and evaluate the safety of the bank slope. The “air element method” is adopted in GeoStudio to simulate siphon drains. Chen-Morgenstern generalized equations are modified to consider the hydrostatic force of reservoir water and the suction strength of unsaturated soil. The modified equations are then incorporated in the spreadsheet to calculate the FOS of the bank slopes with siphon drains. The proposed method is illustrated and validated with the Shuping landslide, China. The advantages of the siphon drains are also discussed by comparing with traditional horizontal drains.

Application of Well Drainage on Treating Seepage-Induced Reservoir Landslides.

In the process of rapid drawdown of reservoir water level, the seepage force in the slide mass is an important factor for the stability reduction and deformation increment of many landslides in the reservoir areas. It is feasible to improve the stability of seepage-induced landslide by employing a drainage well to reduce or eliminate the water head difference that generates the seepage force. In this paper, the Shuping landslide, a typical seepage-induced landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of China, is taken as an example. A series of numerical simulations were carried out to figure out the seepage field, and the Morgenstein–Price method was adopted to calculate the landslide stability. Then the influence of horizontal location of the drainage well, drainage well depth, drainage mode on the landslide treatment effect, and the applicability of drainage well were analyzed. The results show that: (1) landslide stability increases obviously with the well depth in the slide mass, while the increment of landslide stability with the well depth is limited in the slide bed; (2) the sensitivity of the stability improvement with the depth is greater than that with the horizontal positions of the drainage wells in the slide mass; (3) the drainage well is suggested to be operated when the reservoir water falls rather than operates all the time; and (4) the drainage method is most suitable for landslides with low and medium permeability. These results provide deep insights into the treatment of seepage-induced landslides.

Modeling reservoir management for malaria control in Ethiopia

This study investigated how changes in reservoir water level affect mosquito abundance and malaria transmission in Ethiopia. Digital elevation models of three Ethiopian dams at lowland, midland and highland elevations were used to quantify water surface area and wetted shoreline at different reservoir water levels (70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 and 100% full capacity) to estimate surface area of potential mosquito breeding habitat. Reservoir water level drawdown rates of 10, 15 and 20 mm.day−1 were applied as scenarios to model larval abundance, entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and malaria prevalence at each dam. Malaria treatment cost and economic cost in terms of lost working days were calculated for each water level scenario and dam. At the lowland dam, increased larval abundances were associated with increasing reservoir water level and wetted shoreline area. In contrast, both larval abundances and area of wetted shoreline declined with increasing reservoir water level at the midland and highland dams. Estimated EIR, malaria prevalence, malaria treatment cost and economic cost generally decreased when the water level drawdown rate increased from 10 to 15 and 20 mm.day−1 irrespective of reservoir water level. Given the expansion of dam construction in sub-Saharan Africa, incorporating malaria control measures such as manipulating drawdown rates into reservoir management has the potential to reduce the malaria burden and health care costs in communities near reservoirs.

Influences of reservoir water level drawdown on slope stability and reliability analysis

ABSTRACTTo investigate the influences of reservoir water level drawdown on slope stability, a series of numerical simulations were carried out to examine the impacts of slope angle, slope permeability and water drawdown speed on the pore water pressure (PWP) change during seepage, as well as the factor of safety (Fs) of the slope. Based on the numerical results, an estimation model relating the factor of safety to the influential factors mentioned above was developed. The model expression indicates that there are interaction effects between the slope angle, the drawdown speed and the slope permeability, with regard to the influences on slope stability. Furthermore, in view of the uncertainty characteristics of the slope permeability, reliability assessment was performed to examine the influences of those key parameters mentioned above on the probability of slope failure.

Identification of movement characteristics and causal factors of the Shuping landslide based on monitored displacements

Data from in situ monitoring of displacement is of fundamental importance, not only in hazard assessments, but also for understanding the deformation mechanisms of landslides. However, acquiring reliable and continuous displacement data from complex landslides is often a problem because of the high cost of instruments and maintenance. Among more than 250 dangerous landslides monitored in the Chinese Three Gorges reservoir area, the most systematic and complete monitoring data have been obtained from the Shuping landslide. A ten-year record of GPS displacements measured in eight different locations, plus rainfall and reservoir level data, are utilised to identify the movement characteristics and causal factors of the Shuping landslide. The cumulative displacement curves show a series of abrupt increases that occur every year and are separated by periods of steady, slower deformations. The maximum cumulative displacement that occurred during the ten-year monitoring period was 4.7 m at site SP-2. The maximum displacement rate was 35 mm/day, which was observed on June 13, 2012 at site ZG86. Causal factors of the Shuping landslide are identified through qualitative comparisons of the monitoring data and cross-examined by grey correlation degree analysis. The results show that reservoir water level drawdown is the main factor accelerating the movement of the Shuping landslide, with heavy rainfall playing a subordinate role. The proposed use of field data and analytical methods has the potential for providing procedures and solutions for the interpretation of landslide monitoring data.

Identifying the Main Control Factors for Different Deformation Stages of Landslide

Water level fluctuations and rainfall, as external factors, are typically the two dominant causal factors of landslide deformation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. A quantitative model capable of evaluating landslide deformation processes is critical for early warning of landslide. The primary purpose of this paper is to take the Zhujiadian landslide as an example to determine the main control factors for different deformation stages of landslide. Original field date collected from the Zhujiadian landslide was examined using the grey relational grade analysis (GRGA). The approach consists of three steps: determination of landslide type, data processing, and identifying the main control factors of landslide deformation. The results obtained suggest that the Zhujiadian landslide is typical retrogressive landslide, and its deformation occurred first at the front part of the landslide and progressed upslope due to drawdown of reservoir water level and heavy rainfall. In the whole deformation process, the main control factors of different parts of landslide changed with the landslide development. Thus, the findings of the study are useful for rapidly predicting landslide deformation relating to water level fluctuations and rainfall, and the GRGA is useful for interpreting the main control factors of landslide deformation from a quantitative point of view.

Stability Analysis of Hydrodynamic Pressure Landslides with Different Permeability Coefficients Affected by Reservoir Water Level Fluctuations and Rainstorms

It is significant to study the variations in the stability coefficients of hydrodynamic pressure landslides with different permeability coefficients affected by reservoir water level fluctuations and rainstorms. The Sifangbei landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area is used as case study. Its stability coefficients are simulated based on saturated-unsaturated seepage theory and finite element analysis. The operating conditions of stability coefficients calculation are reservoir water level variations between 175 m and 145 m, different rates of reservoir water level fluctuations, and a three-day continuous rainstorm. Results show that the stability coefficient of the hydrodynamic pressure landslide decreases with the drawdown of the reservoir water level, and a rapid drawdown rate leads to a small stability coefficient when the permeability coefficient ranges from 1.16 × 10−6 m/s to 4.64 × 10−5 m/s. Additionally, the landslide stability coefficient increases as the reservoir water level increases, and a rapid increase in the water level leads to a high stability coefficient when the permeability coefficient ranges from 1.16 × 10−6 m/s to 4.64 × 10−5 m/s. The landslide stability coefficient initially decreases and then increases as the reservoir water level declines when the permeability coefficient is greater than 4.64 × 10−5 m/s. Moreover, for structures with the same landslide, the landslide stability coefficient is most sensitive to the change in the rate of reservoir water level drawdown when the permeability coefficient increases from 1.16 × 10−6 m/s to 1.16 × 10−4 m/s. Additionally, the rate of decrease in the stability coefficient increases as the permeability coefficient increases. Finally, the three-day rainstorm leads to a significant reduction in landslide stability, and the rate of decrease in the stability coefficient initially increases and then decreases as the permeability coefficient increases.

Discussion on the Safety Factors of Slopes Recommended for Small Dams

The design and assessment of the slope stability of small embankment dams is usually not carried out using slope stability calculations but rather by the comparison of proposed or existing dam slopes with those recommended by technical standards or guidelines. Practical experience shows that in many cases the slopes of small dams are steeper than those recommended. However, most of such steeper slopes at existing dams do not exhibit any visible signs of instability, defects or sliding. For the dam owner and also for dam stability engineers, the safety of the slope, expressed e.g. via a factor of safety, is crucial. The aim of this study is to evaluate the safety margin provided by recommended slopes. The factor of safety was evaluated for several dam shape and layout variants via the shear strength reduction method using PLAXIS software. The study covers various dam geometries, dam core and shoulder positions and parameter values of utilised soils. Three load cases were considered: one with a steady state seepage condition and two with different reservoir water level drawdown velocities – standard and critical. As numerous older small dams lack a drainage system, variants with and without a toe drain were assessed. Calculated factors of safety were compared with required values specified by national standards and guidelines.

The Coupling Effect of Rainfall and Reservoir Water Level Decline on the Baijiabao Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

Rainfall and reservoir level fluctuation are two of the main factors contributing to reservoir landslides. However, in China’s Three Gorges Reservoir Area, when the reservoir water level fluctuates significantly, it comes at a time of abundant rainfall, which makes it difficult to distinguish which factor dominates the deformation of the landslide. This study focuses on how rainfall and reservoir water level decline affect the seepage and displacement field of Baijiabao landslide spatially and temporally during drawdown of reservoir water level in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, thus exploring its movement mechanism. The monitoring data of the landslide in the past 10 years were analyzed, and the correlation between rainfall, reservoir water level decline, and landslide displacement was clarified. By the numerical simulation method, the deformation evolution mechanism of this landslide during drawdown of reservoir water level was revealed, respectively, under three conditions, namely, rainfall, reservoir water level decline, and coupling of the above two conditions. The results showed that the deformation of the Baijiabao landslide was the coupling effect of rainfall and reservoir water level decline, while the latter effect is more pronounced.

The Analysis about Seepage of the Bank Slope under the Cycle Rising and Drawdown of Reservoir Water Level

Bank slope seepage field is analyzed by saturated-unsaturated seepage theory under the three times cycle conditions of water level rising and drawdown . The pore water pressure distribution laws of the water level rising period, the stabilization period, the period of decline and decline stable period for every cycle are researched. The result shows soil near slope region is saturated easily after many rounds of water level rising and drawdown, and saturation region gradually increases. Soil phreatic line near slope falls fastly in the drawdown period, away from the slope, phreatic line declines slowly.

Reliability Analysis for Effects of Reservoir Water Level Change on Embankment Dam

This paper is mainly concerned with the saturated-unsaturated seepage analysis of embankment dams based on unsaturated soil theory and the reliability analysis of embankment dam based on conception of reliability. The transient seepage due to change of the water level is calculated using the finite element method based on unifying saturated-unsaturated seepage governing equations. The transient pore water pressures are then used for stability analyses of embankment dam considering the effects of suction on shear strength of unsaturated soils. Meanwhile, combined with reliability computation, the Monte-Carlo stimulation method is used to calculate the corresponding reliability index dealing with the stochastic features of soil parameters. The reliability of different water level condition of embankment dams has been analyzed. The effects of different reservoir water level drawdown and raise speeds on reliability of embankment dam are discussed.