Draft Round Research Articles

Association Between Draft Order and Stress Sonography of the Ulnar Collateral Ligament of the Elbow in Professional Baseball Pitchers: An 18-Year Study

Background: The Major League Baseball (MLB) draft is a common route for players to enter professional baseball in the United States. Players taken in earlier rounds are typically higher-performing players. When looking at pitchers specifically, higher performance at the amateur level may be associated with an increased frequency of adaptive change in the throwing elbow. Purpose: To determine whether pitchers taken in earlier rounds of the MLB draft have a greater frequency or extent of pathological change in the elbow, as measured by dynamic stress ultrasound. Study Design: Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Dynamic stress ultrasounds (SUSs) were performed over 18 years on the dominant and nondominant arms of 651 professional pitchers. The 383 drafted players were grouped according to the round in which they were drafted (rounds 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, 21+). Groups were compared with respect to “relative” ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) thickness (dominant-nondominant), relative ulnohumeral joint laxity (joint space distance under stress minus joint space at rest), and the presence of pathology (calcifications, tears, hypoechoic foci, osteophytes). In addition, a subgroup analysis was done to compare the progression of SUS findings over 3 years in players for which data were available. Results: Draft round groups did not differ by age, number of previous spring training, or handedness. Comparing baseline measurements, there was no significant relationship between draft round and relative UCL thickness (P = .932), relative laxity (P = .996), or presence of pathology detectable on SUS (P = .642). However, increased relative UCL thickness was significantly associated with the presence of pathology on SUS (odds ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.26-1.69; P < .001). Longitudinally, there was no significant relationship between draft round and 3-year progression of relative laxity, relative UCL thickness, or clinical progression of pathology. Conclusion: Higher-performing pitchers are drafted earlier in the MLB draft. This may be attributable to peak pitch velocity, in-game performance, visibility gained during player showcases, or any number of other sport-specific variables. However, despite this, there was no significant relationship between draft round and adaptive changes to the elbow or specific properties of the UCL on stress ultrasound.

Paper 22: Ulnar Collateral Ligament Tear in Elite Baseball Pitchers: Do High School Showcase Exposures Predict Injury™

Paper 22: Ulnar Collateral Ligament Tear in Elite Baseball Pitchers: Do High School Showcase Exposures Predict Injury™

The persistent effects of early career contracts: evidence from NBA drafts

ABSTRACT This article examines the persistent effects of early career contracts using the National Basketball Association (NBA)’s draft data over the period 1995–2019. We use regression discontinuity design (RDD) to compare the differences in career outcomes between the first-round picked rookies and the second-round picked ones. The empirical results suggest that draft rounds per se significantly influence a player’s career outcome in almost all indicators (i.e. career earnings, total points scored, and total years played). Explorations of the mechanisms suggest that differences in rookie contract length and sunk costs influence teams’ human capital investment in rookies.

The determinants of Black quarterback pay in the National Football League

AbstractThis paper seeks to econometrically determine differences in salary returns to attributes of quarterbacks in the National Football League (NFL), by race. We analyse salary determination of 215 White and Black quarterbacks over 2006 through 2020 with separate equations estimated for each group. Our analysis indicates that top draft pick evaluations persist into future pay setting for each group. However, there is a faster rate of decay of early draft round salary premium for Black quarterbacks. This is found to be robust across different estimations. This result is indicative of differential treatment in pay setting for Black quarterbacks.

Age at League Entry and Early All-Cause Mortality among National Football League Players

Background: A growing body of research suggests that American football players are exposed to higher cumulative head impact risk as competition level rises. Related literature finds that head impacts absorbed by youth, adolescent, and emerging adult players are associated with elevated risk of long-term health problems (e.g., neurodegenerative disease onset). Most National Football League (NFL) players enter the League as emerging adults (18–24 years old), a period of continued cognitive and overall physical development. However, no prior research has studied the effect of age-at-entry on long-term NFL player health. Hypothesis/Purpose: This study assesses whether early NFL player age-at-entry is associated with increased risk of early all-cause mortality, controlling for player position, BMI, year-of-entry, birth year, and NFL Draft round (expected ability upon League entry). Study Design: This retrospective cohort study included 9049 players who entered the NFL from 1970–2017 and subsequently played at least one game. The variables whether deceased, age-at-death, age-at-entry, and controls were collected from Pro Football Reference website, a leading data site for American football that has been used extensively in the literature. Data collection began on 13 July 2017, and follow-up ended on 1 July 2018. Statistical analysis was performed from 10 March 2020 to 3 August 2020. Data was validated by checking a large sub-sample of data points against alternative sources such as NFL.com and NFLsavant.com. Methods: Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine variation in death hazard by NFL player age-at-entry, conditional upon a full set of controls. Results: Conditional on controls, Cox regression results indicate that a one-year increase in age-at-entry was significantly associated with a 14% decreased hazard-of-death (H.R., 0.86; 95% CI, 0.74–0.98). Among relatively young entering players, the increased hazard appears to be concentrated in the first quartile of players by age at League entry (20.2 to 22.3 years). Players not in this quartile exhibited a decreased hazard-of-death (H.R., 0.74; 95% CI, 0.57–0.97) compared with players who entered at a relatively young (first quartile) age. Conclusion: An earlier age-at-entry is associated with an increased hazard-of-death among NFL players. Currently, the NFL regulates age-at-entry only indirectly by requiring players to be 3 years removed from high school before becoming NFL Draft-eligible. Implementing a minimum age at entry for NFL players of 22 years and 4 months at beginning of season is expected to result in reduced mortality. What is known about this subject? There are no prior studies on the effects of NFL player age-at-entry on early mortality risk. What this study adds to existing knowledge: This study determines whether entering the NFL at an age of physical and physiological development is related to early mortality risk.

Accuracy from the slot: Evaluating draft selections in the National Hockey League.

The National Hockey League (NHL) entry draft is a process wherein teams make sequential selections from a pool of eligible players. Given the young age of prospects, drafting requires long-term forecasting of future performance under a high level of uncertainty. This study assessed the selection accuracy across all seven rounds of the draft, as well as between lottery and non-lottery picks within the first round. NHL performance data were collected for all forwards (N=956) and defensemen (N=558) drafted between 2007 and 2014. In both groups, Kruskal-Wallis H tests conducted between draft rounds revealed a significant, relatively strong, overall effect of draft order on future performance. However, Mann-Whitney U post-hoc tests showed projecting future performance of forwards was only accurate in the first two rounds, while for defensemen, selection was only accurate in the first round. Moreover, forwards selected with lottery picks in the first round outperformed their non-lottery peers offensively but not defensively. As for defensemen, those selected with lottery picks did not differ from their non-lottery peers in offensive or defensive performance. Our findings highlight substantial inaccuracies in the NHL draft, particularly past the first two rounds of selection. We offer multiple possible explanations driving such inaccuracies that could form the basis for further work in this area.

Return to Play and Performance After Primary ACL Reconstruction in American Football Players: A Systematic Review.

Background:Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are among the most common sports-related injuries, and they can have a negative impact on players’ ability to return to play (RTP). There is a paucity of literature focused on RTP after ACL reconstruction (ACLR) in collision sports.Purpose:To characterize the impact that an ACL injury has on the ability to RTP and the post-ACLR performance level in American football players.Study Design:Systematic review; Level of evidence, 4.Methods:An electronic search was performed using the following databases: the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PubMed, Embase, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature. Included studies were written in English; were published since the year 2000; examined only American football players; and reported on RTP, performance, and/or career length after primary ACLR.Results:The initial search yielded 442 unique studies. Of these, 427 were removed after screening, leaving 15 studies that met inclusion criteria. An additional 2 studies were identified in these studies’ references, yielding a total of 17. The rate of RTP after ACLR for football players was 67.2% (1249/1859), and the mean time to return was 11.6 months (range, 35.8-55.8 weeks). Although considerable heterogeneity existed in the study design and outcomes measured, in general, a majority of football players experienced greater declines from their preinjury performance level than controls over the same time period.Conclusion:An ACL injury negatively affected football players’ ability to RTP and their post-ACLR performance. The degree of effect varied by several factors, including playing position, preinjury performance level, and National Football League Draft round. These results may be used by physicians and football players to develop reasonable expectations for returning to play and performance after an ACL injury.

The Impact of Prior Musculoskeletal Injury and Orthopaedic Surgery on Draft Position, Availability, and Performance in Major League Baseball: A Summative Analysis of 1,890 Predraft Players

Objectives:Despite the value to future coaches, franchise management, and medical personnel, little is known about the epidemiology of musculoskeletal injuries and surgeries and their future impact prior to the MLB draft. The purpose of this study was to determine the (1) epidemiology of all musculoskeletal injuries and surgeries for predraft MLB players; (2) risk of injury or surgery on draft position; (3) risk of injury or surgery on availability within the first two years; and (4) risk of injury or surgery on performance.Methods:A total of 1,890 medical records conducted by MLB team physicians prior to the draft were retrospectively reviewed from 2014 to 2018. Players were divided into three groups: non-injured (no musculoskeletal history), non-operative (previously injured but treated non-operatively), and operative (previous injury requiring surgery). Game statistics, including draft round, missed games, batting average (BA), and earned run average (ERA) for the first 2 seasons of MLB play were obtained for all available players, Players were matched for position, and confounders were analyzed for age, draft round using ANOVA analysis.Results:A total of 927 pitchers and 963 position players were evaluated, and 38.9% had no reported injury history, 48.6% reported injury but were treated non-operatively, and 12.4% were treated operatively. The most common pre-draft injuries were elbow tendonitis (n=312), UCL injury (n=212), and shoulder labral tear (n=76). The most common pre-draft treatments were physical therapy (922, 25.3%), UCL reconstruction (115, 3.2%), and fracture fixation (69, 1.9%). No difference was found between non-injured, non-operative, and operative groups in terms of draft position, games missed, and performance (BA for position players, p = 0.7246; ERA for pitchers, p=0.1956). After position matching, age and draft round were non-confounding.Conclusion:More than half of players entering the MLB report a musculoskeletal injury requiring treatment, with the most common pathology involves the shoulder and elbow. After position matching and analyzing for confounding factors like age and draft round, musculoskeletal history did not macroscopically impact draft position, short-term availability, or performance.

A History of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction at the National Football League Combine Results in Inferior Early National Football League Career Participation

To evaluate whether players with a history of an anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) before the National Football League (NFL) Combine played or started fewer games and/or participated in fewer eligible snaps compared with NFL Combine participants without a history of knee injury or surgery. We performed a retrospective review of all players who participated in the NFL Combine between 2009 and 2015 and who had a history of an ACLR. NFL Combine participants were included if they had a previous ACLR or combined anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury and nonoperatively managed medial collateral ligament injury. The number of games started, number of games played, draft number, overall draft pick, and snap percentage for each position were determined. The mean value of each outcome metric was compared between case and control players. We identified 110 players who had an ACL injury (n= 76) or a combined ACL and medial collateral ligament injury (n= 34). Players in the ACLR group had a significantly worse mean draft pick number (difference of 30.2, P= .002) and mean draft round (difference of 0.8, P=.019) versus controls. Compared with control players, players in the ACLR group started and played significantly fewer games in both season 1 (difference of 2.7 games started, P < .001; difference of 2.7 games played, P < .001) and season 2 (difference of 7.4 games started, P < .001; difference of 3.0 games played, P= .003) and had a significantly lower snap percentage in both season 1 (difference of 23.1%, P < .001) and season 2 (difference of 24.0%, P < .001). Athletes at the NFL Combine who previously underwent an ACLR had significantly lower early-career NFL player metrics, including fewer games started, fewer games played, and a lower snap percentage, than uninjured controls. Defensive linemen, defensive backs, and linebackers were the 3 most affected positions. Players with a prior ACLR and combined meniscal-chondral pathology had significantly lower numbers of games started and games played in seasons 1 and 2 and a significantly lower season 2 snap percentage. Level III, case-control study.

Reasons for Retirement Following Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction Among Major League Baseball Pitchers.

Background:Ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction (UCLR) has become an increasingly common procedure among Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers. The long-term effects of this procedure on the career of an MLB pitcher are largely unknown.Purpose/Hypothesis:The purpose of this study was to determine why and when MLB pitchers who underwent UCLR during their careers retired from baseball as compared with controls. We hypothesized that pitchers who underwent UCLR are no more likely than control pitchers to retire from elbow or shoulder problems.Study Design:Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3.Methods:All MLB pitchers who underwent UCLR were identified through publicly available data. A cohort of pitchers who did not undergo UCLR were matched to pitchers with a history of UCLR, based on sex, age, draft year, and draft round. Of those who were no longer pitching in the MLB, the reason for retirement was determined. Reason for retirement and length of career following UCLR (surgical group) and index year (control group) were determined and compared through prior studies via the MLB HITS database, MLB team websites, and publicly available internet-based injury reports.Results:Overall, 153 MLB pitchers who underwent UCLR between 1974 and 2015 are currently retired. Mean ± SD time to retirement was 4.4 ± 4.7 years (range, 0-26 years) after the index year in the control group and 4.4 ± 3.5 years (range, 0-15 years) after surgery in the UCLR group (P = .388). Patients who were status post-UCLR were significantly more likely to be released during the season (34 of 144, 23.6%) than were players who were not status post-UCLR (14 of 144, 9.7%) (P = .002). Shoulder injury as a reason for retirement was more common in the control group than the UCLR group (P = .011). Elbow injury as a reason for retirement was not more common in either group (P = .379). Leg injury as a reason for retirement was more common in the control group (P = .013). Performance as a reason for retirement was more common in the UCLR group than the control group (P < .001).Conclusion:MLB pitchers who have undergone UCLR are no more likely to retire from shoulder or elbow injuries than are those who have not undergone UCLR. MLB career length was similar between pitchers with and without a history of UCLR.

National Football League Skilled and Unskilled Positions Vary in Opportunity and Yield in Return to Play After an Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury.

Background:Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries pose a significant risk to the careers of players in the National Football League (NFL). The relationships between draft round and position on return to play (RTP) among NFL players are not well understood, and the ability to return to preinjury performance levels remains unknown for most positions.Purpose:To test for differences in RTP rates and changes in performance after an ACL injury by position and draft round. We hypothesized that skilled positions would return at a lower rate compared to unskilled positions. We further hypothesized that early draft-round status would relate to a greater rate of RTP and that skilled positions and a lower draft round would correlate with decreased performance for players who return to sport.Study Design:Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3.Methods:Utilizing a previously established database of publicly available information regarding ACL tears among NFL players, athletes with ACL tears occurring between the 2010 and 2013 seasons were identified. Generalized linear models and Kaplan-Meier time-to-event models were used to test the study hypotheses.Results:The overall RTP rate was 61.7%, with skilled players and unskilled players returning at rates of 64.1% and 60.4%, respectively (P = .74). Early draft-round players and unskilled late draft-round players had greater rates of RTP compared to skilled late draft-round players and both unskilled and skilled undrafted free agents (UDFAs). Skilled early draft-round players constituted the only cohort that played significantly fewer games after an injury. Unskilled UDFAs constituted the only cohort to show a significant increase in the number of games started and ratio of games started to games played, starting more games in which they played, after an injury.Conclusion:Early draft-round and unskilled players were more likely to return compared to their later draft-round and skilled peers. Skilled early draft-round players, who displayed relatively high rates of RTP, constituted the only cohort to show a decline in performance. Unskilled UDFAs, who exhibited relatively low rates of RTP, constituted the only cohort to show an increase in performance. The significant effect of draft round and position type on RTP may be caused by a combination of differences in talent levels and in opportunities given to returning to play.

Variables Affecting Return to Play After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury in the National Football League.

Background:Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are common in the National Football League (NFL). Limited literature exists regarding return to play (RTP) and the factors affecting RTP after ACL reconstruction in NFL players.Purpose/Hypothesis:To determine RTP rates after ACL reconstruction in NFL players and to ascertain which variables affect RTP in these players. We hypothesized that RTP in this population will be less than in the general population and similar to the limited studies published previously.Study Design:Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3.Methods:A total of 92 NFL athletes who sustained ACL injuries requiring ACL reconstruction from 2013 to 2015 were retrospectively studied to determine rate of RTP and the variables affecting RTP.Results:Sixty-two percent (57/92) of NFL athletes returned to NFL game play prior to the end of the 2015-2016 postseason. ACL injuries were noted in 10 different player positions, with 81.5% of all injuries as isolated ACL injuries (75/92) and 18.5% with concomitant knee injuries. A significant difference in ability to RTP was found for players who sustained in-season injuries compared with those who sustained off-season/preseason injuries (P = .02). No significant differences in RTP were found for players who played less than 4 years in the NFL compared with those who played longer. The mean draft round of players who returned was 3.96, with the odds ratio favoring RTP at 4.44 (P = .003) for players drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft compared with those drafted in the fourth round or later. No significant differences were found with regard to playing surface, laterality, concomitant injury, previous ipsilateral or contralateral ACL reconstruction, final outcome of the game, or contact compared with noncontact injuries.Conclusion:The RTP rates we reported after ACL reconstruction in NFL players are similar to prior studies; however, running backs and wide receivers had lower rates of RTP than previously reported. As previously published, quarterbacks were found to have high RTP rates. Most ACL injuries take place during the preseason or early regular season. Early selection in the NFL draft was a strong predictor of ability to RTP.

Return to Play After Chondroplasty of the Knee in National Football League Athletes

Background: Knee injuries, including articular cartilage damage, are common in football players and are potentially career threatening. The rate of return to play (RTP) as well as the factors affecting return after arthroscopic chondroplasty of the knee is performed in National Football League (NFL) athletes are not known. Purpose: To determine the rate of return to regular season NFL competition after arthroscopic knee surgery including chondroplasty of articular cartilage lesions. In addition, identification of factors that influence successful return was investigated. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: Athletes in the NFL who underwent arthroscopic chondroplasty at a single institution were identified. Retrospective chart review and review of the NFL online database were utilized to determine the rate of RTP and factors affecting an athlete’s ability to return. Chi-square and Student t tests were used to assess differences among players who were and were not able to RTP, and logistic regression was employed to determine a player’s odds of return. Results: There were 52 patients (54 procedures) identified from the surgical database who met the inclusion criteria for the study operated on between August 1, 2001, and March 31, 2011. Of these players, 36 (67%) were able to return to regular season NFL game play at an average of 8.2 months, including 13 (24%) who were still active in the NFL. The average time to follow-up was 5.9 years, and all players were allowed at least 2 years of follow-up. There was no significant correlation of RTP to athlete age, lesion size, lesion location, position played, or round selected in the NFL draft. Players who underwent concomitant microfracture were 4.4 times less likely to return to the NFL than were those who did not undergo this procedure (95% CI, 1.3-15.5). Athletes who played more than 11.6 games per season were 4.7 times more likely to RTP than were those who played fewer games per season (95% CI, 1.4-16.6). Athletes who returned to play competed in 56 fewer games, 3.3 fewer seasons, and played in 3.2 fewer games per season compared with their level of competition before surgery. Conclusion: A majority (67%) of NFL players are able to RTP after arthroscopic knee surgery including chondroplasty of articular cartilage lesions. Athletes who play more games per season are more likely to RTP after chondroplasty of articular cartilage lesions of the knee, but those undergoing concomitant microfracture are less likely to return. No statistical significance was determined when comparing the athletes who returned to play with respect to age at surgery, lesion location, lesion size, lesion grade, position that the athlete played, or draft round.

Return to Play After Partial Lateral Meniscectomy in National Football League Athletes

Background: Lateral meniscal injury is a common and possibly career-threatening injury among players in the National Football League (NFL). The rate of return to play (RTP) and factors that affect RTP after lateral meniscal injury in NFL players are currently not defined. Purpose: The aims of this study were to determine the rate of RTP to regular-season NFL game play of NFL players after arthroscopic partial lateral meniscectomy and to identify factors that can predict the ability to return to play. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: Seventy-two patients undergoing 77 arthroscopic lateral partial meniscectomies were followed to determine the rate of RTP (defined as successful RTP in at least 1 regular-season NFL game after meniscectomy) and factors predicting players’ ability to return to play. Perioperative variables were recorded using retrospective chart review. Players’ heights and weights, dates of return, draft rounds, and counts of games, starts, and seasons both before and after meniscectomy were all collected from statistical databases maintained by the NFL. Chi-square and Student t tests were performed to assess differences among covariates with respect to an athlete’s ability to return to play, and odds ratios were calculated as appropriate. All percentages were calculated as percent of total procedures performed (n = 77). Results: Of the 77 partial lateral meniscectomies performed, 61% (n = 47) resulted in the athlete returning to play at his previous level of competition with an average length of time to RTP of 8.5 months; 19 (40%) of those who returned were still active in the NFL at the time of follow-up. Age at time of surgery, games and seasons played before surgery, and individual position were not significantly different between those who did and did not return to play. Undergoing a concomitant procedure did not affect an athlete’s ability to return to play, nor did concurrent arthroscopic anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction affect a player’s likelihood to return to play. Players drafted in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft were 3.7 times more likely to return to play than players drafted after the fourth round, and players who started more than 46.2% of their games played (the mean value for this population) were 2.8 times more likely to return to play. Speed-position players (running backs, receivers, linebackers, and defensive backs) were 4.0 times less likely to return to play than non–speed position players (linemen and tight ends). Conclusion: The majority of NFL players undergoing arthroscopic lateral meniscectomy are able to return to play. Players selected earlier in the NFL draft and who are listed as starters in more of their games are more likely to return to play, as are linemen and tight ends. It is significantly more difficult for running backs, receivers, linebackers, and defensive backs to return to play.

Quadriceps Tendon Injuries in National Football League Players

Background: Distal quadriceps tendon tears are uncommon injuries that typically occur in patients older than 40 years of age, and they have a guarded prognosis. Predisposing factors, prodromal findings, mechanisms of injury, treatment guidelines, and recovery expectations are not well described in high-level athletes. Hypothesis: Professional American football players with an isolated tear of the quadriceps tendon treated with timely surgical repair will return to their sport. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: Fourteen unilateral distal quadriceps tendon tears were identified in National Football League (NFL) players from 1994 to 2004. Team physicians retrospectively reviewed training room and clinic records, operative notes, and imaging studies for each of these players. Data on each player were analyzed to identify variables predicting return to play. A successful outcome was defined as returning to play in regular-season NFL games. Results: Eccentric contraction of the quadriceps was the most common mechanism of injury, occurring in 10 players. Only 1 player had antecedent ipsilateral extensor mechanism symptoms. Eleven players had a complete rupture of the quadriceps tendon, and 3 had partial tears. There were no associated knee injuries. All ruptures were treated with surgical repair, 1 of which was delayed after failure of nonoperative treatment. Fifty percent of players returned to play in regular-season NFL games. There was a trend toward earlier draft status for those who returned to play compared with those who did not (draft round, 3.1 ± 2.5 vs 6.0 ± 2.9, respectively; P = .073). For those who returned to play, the average number of games after injury was 40.9 (range, 12-92). Conclusion: Quadriceps tendon tears are rare in professional American football players, and they usually occur from eccentric load on the extensor mechanism. Prodromal symptoms and predisposing factors are usually absent. Even with timely surgical repair, there is a low rate of return to play in regular-season games. There is a trend toward early draft rounds for those who successfully return to play.

Case Studies in Agribusiness: An Interview with Ray Goldberg

Introduction In a recent article published in Harvard Business School Alumni Bulletin titled What's the Big Idea? (Emmons, Hanna, & Thompson, 2012), a timeline was presented highlighting the 20 of the most significant advances in the 100 year history of the school. Among these landmarks--which included such luminaries as Mayo's pioneering industrial research, Porter's work on strategy, Jensen's agency theory, and Christensen's disruptive innovation--was listed the 1957 publication of A Concept of Agribusiness by Ray Goldberg and John Davis. This work not only coined the term agribusiness, it also introduced the concept of viewing the production, distribution, and consumption of food and fiber as a commodity system--a forerunner to today's value chain and supply chain analysis. In addition to being a co-inventor of the field of agribusiness, Ray A. Goldberg (George M. Moffett Professor of Agriculture and Business, Emeritus at HBS) holds another important distinction. According to his HBS web page, he has authored and supervised the development of over 1000 case studies on various private, public, and farm cooperative firms and institutions in the global food system. Informally, at least, that makes him the most prolific producer of business discussion cases in the history of HBS (and, quite possibly, in the world). Still active, Goldberg continues to write and teach. Most recently, this teaching has included seminars at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, an undergraduate course at Harvard College, and an executive agribusiness seminar conducted by HBS. Because of the extraordinary impact of he has had on the agribusiness field, and the important role that case studies have played over the course of his career, he seemed like the idea person to speak to about the manner in which case studies can be used for informing. Protocol The interview that follows was conducted by the author on 24 October 2012. Prior to the interview, Goldberg was sent the list of questions. The interview itself was then recorded, and an initial transcription was made using Dragon System's Naturally Speaking software. This transcript was then cleaned up by the author, and sent back to Goldberg for his approval and minor edits. A similar round of draft and approval was followed for the paper as a whole, prior to publication. The Interview Q1. When did you develop your interest in agribusiness? I grew up in Fargo, North Dakota, the son of person who had a farm, developed a grain business and a seed and feed business in the Red River Valley. I was the youngest of four children and the only boy so I spent a great deal of time with my father and I developed my interest and love and appreciation for agriculture at a very young age. I remember going to work when I was 10 years old and have worked in the field of agriculture ever since. So I started at a very young age and that interest was always reinforced, not only by my immediate family, but also by everyone I ever met in my academic and business career. Q2. So perhaps you can tell me where the term agribusiness came from? John Davis and I spent many hours trying to figure out what we should call the food system domestically and globally. Because both of us were trained as PhDs in agricultural economics, we recognized that agricultural economics cannot cover the business world, that the farmer was just as much a businessman as anybody else, and that we really should encompass the whole value-added chain. So we decided that we had better put business into the title--so we called it agribusiness. Q3. The idea of a commodity system keeps cropping up in agribusiness. Could you explain what it means and how it relates to today's widely used concepts of supply chains and value chains? Yes, I'd be happy to address that question, but to address it properly I have to explain what a concept of agribusiness includes and why a commodity system became important to that concept. …

Accuracy of professional sports drafts in predicting career potential

The forecasting of talented players is a crucial aspect of building a successful sports franchise and professional sports invest significant resources in making player choices in sport drafts. The current study examined the relationship between career performance (i.e. games played) and draft round for the National Football League, National Hockey League, National Basketball League, and Major League Baseball for players drafted from 1980 to 1989 (n = 4874) against the assumption of a linear relationship between performance and draft round (i.e. that players with the most potential will be selected before players of lower potential). A two-step analysis revealed significant differences in games played across draft rounds (step 1) and a significant negative relationship between draft round and games played (step 2); however, the amount of variance accounted for was relatively low (less than 17%). Results highlight the challenges of accurately evaluating amateur talent.

Return to Play after Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Athletes

Background Rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) is a common and potentially career-threatening injury in the National Football League (NFL). The return to play (RTP) percentage and the factors affecting RTP after ACL reconstruction in NFL players are not well defined. Purpose To determine the actual rate of return to professional football play in the NFL after ACL reconstruction surgery and to determine what factors can predict ability to RTP. We hypothesize that the RTP percentage in this unique patient population will differ from previously reported populations. Study Design Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods Forty-nine NFL athletes who had undergone primary ACL reconstruction at our institution were followed to determine their RTP percentages and factors predicting RTP. Results Sixty-three percent (31 of 49) of NFL athletes returned to NFL game play at an average of 10.8 months after surgery. Age at time of surgery, position, and the type and number of procedures were not significantly different between those who did and did not return to play. The average number of games before surgery was 51 for those who did return to play and 28 for those who did not (P = .039). The odds ratio favoring RTP was 5.5 (P = .016) for those players who had more than 4 years of NFL experience before surgery. The average NFL draft round was 3.4 for the group who returned to play and 6.4 for those who did not (P < .001). The odds ratio favoring RTP was 12.2 (P < .001) for those players drafted in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft compared with those drafted after the fourth round. Conclusions The RTP rates after ACL reconstruction in NFL football players are lower than previously perceived. More experienced and established athletes are more likely to return to competition at the same level after this procedure than those with less professional experience. Being selected in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft was highly predictive of RTP.

Off-Ice Performance and Draft Status of Elite Ice Hockey Players

The primary purpose of this study was to determine whether tests performed at the National Hockey League (NHL) Combine could distinguish draft status (ie, the round selected). A secondary aim was to provide performance ranges and percentiles for each of the dependent variables. A retrospective, cross-sectional study design was used with performance data and draft order from 2001, 2002, and 2003 Combine participants. Draft round was divided into 5 classifications (rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 through 9), and performances on 12 physical tests served as dependent variables. Three multiple analyses of covariance (MANCOVAs) were used to determine the significance of performance scores at the NHL Combine on draft selection. Age (years), body mass (kg), height (cm), and percentage body fat were treated as covariates. Overall, MANCOVA results indicated no significant effect of performance on draft selection for 2001, 2002, or 2003. Subsequent univariate tests revealed that no single dependent variable was able to distinguish between draft rounds for any of the 3 years sampled. Using draft status as an indicator of ice hockey performance, it appears that off-ice tests cannot accurately predict ice hockey playing ability in an elite group of athletes. This might stem from homogeneity of the Combine participants, a lack of validity of the tests, or other factors (eg, on-ice hockey skills, psychological variables, etc) that play a role in draft selection.