Accuracy of professional sports drafts in predicting career potential

Abstract

The forecasting of talented players is a crucial aspect of building a successful sports franchise and professional sports invest significant resources in making player choices in sport drafts. The current study examined the relationship between career performance (i.e. games played) and draft round for the National Football League, National Hockey League, National Basketball League, and Major League Baseball for players drafted from 1980 to 1989 (n = 4874) against the assumption of a linear relationship between performance and draft round (i.e. that players with the most potential will be selected before players of lower potential). A two-step analysis revealed significant differences in games played across draft rounds (step 1) and a significant negative relationship between draft round and games played (step 2); however, the amount of variance accounted for was relatively low (less than 17%). Results highlight the challenges of accurately evaluating amateur talent.