Doubling Of Carbon Dioxide Concentration Research Articles

РЕАЛЬНОСТЬ УГЛЕРОДНОГО СЛЕДА В ГЛОБАЛЬНОМ ИЗМЕНЕНИИ КЛИМАТА

The article calls into question the theory of the global greenhouse effect escalation attributable to the increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere due to human activity, as well as the very ability of industry to influence the Earth’s climate. The author finds dubitable the very approach to understanding greenhouse gases and their impact on the climate reflected in the Paris Agreement. Analysis of authoritative opinions of the world’s leading climate scientists leads to the conclusion that the increase in global temperatures due to industrial production, given a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, would constitute about 0,02 degrees. This is lower than the margin of error in modern global temperature measurements.

Return to different climate states by reducing sulphate aerosols under future CO2 concentrations

It is generally believed that anthropogenic aerosols cool the atmosphere; therefore, they offset the global warming resulting from greenhouse gases to some extent. Reduction in sulphate, a primary anthropogenic aerosol, is necessary for mitigating air pollution, which causes atmospheric warming. Here, the changes in the surface air temperature under various anthropogenic emission amounts of sulphur dioxide (SO2), which is a precursor of sulphate aerosol, are simulated under both present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations with a climate model. No previous studies have conducted explicit experiments to estimate the temperature changes due to individual short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) in different climate states with atmosphere–ocean coupled models. The simulation results clearly show that reducing SO2 emissions at high CO2 concentrations will significantly enhance atmospheric warming in comparison with that under the present CO2 concentration. In the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the temperature change that will occur when fuel SO2 emissions reach zero under a doubled CO2 concentration will be approximately 1.0 °C, while this value will be approximately 0.5 °C under the present state. This considerable difference can affect the discussion of the 1.5 °C/2 °C target in the Paris Agreement.

Collision and radiative processes in emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide

The peculiarities of the spectroscopic properties of CO2 molecules in air due to vibration-rotation radiative transitions are analyzed. The absorption coefficient due to atmospheric carbon dioxide and other atmospheric components is constructed within the framework of the standard atmosphere model, on the basis of classical molecular spectroscopy and the regular model for the spectroscopy absorption band. The radiative flux from the atmosphere toward the Earth is represented as that of a blackbody, and the radiative temperature for emission at a given frequency is determined with accounting for the local thermodynamic equilibrium, a small gradient of the tropospheric temperature and a high optical thickness of the troposphere for infrared radiation. The absorption band model with an absorption coefficient averaged over the frequency and line-by-line model are used for evaluating the radiative flux from the atmosphere to the Earth which values are nearby for these models and are equal W m−2 for the contemporary concentration of atmospheric CO2 molecules and W m−2 at its doubled value. The absorption band model is not suitable to calculate the radiative flux change at doubling of carbon dioxide concentration because averaging over oscillations decreases the range where the atmospheric optical thickness is of the order of one, and just this range determines this change. The line-by-line method gives the change of the global temperature K as a result of doubling the carbon dioxide concentration. The contribution to the global temperature change due to anthropogenic injection of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, i.e. resulted from combustion of fossil fuels, is approximately 0.02 K now.

Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

AbstractArctic sea ice loss may influence midlatitude climate by changing large‐scale circulation. The extent to which climate change can be understood as greenhouse gas‐induced changes that are modulated by this loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. A novel sea ice nudging methodology in a fully coupled climate model reveals that the separate effects of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated Arctic sea ice loss are remarkably additive and insensitive to the mean climate state. This separability is evident in several fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. The separability of the responses might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

An intermediate complexity AGCM simulations of climate response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Atmospheric response to doubled carbon dioxide concentration is estimated by analyzing 35-member ensemble mean made by an atmospheric general circulation model of intermediate complexity. Simulated changes in the mean fields are evaluated for winter (January-February-March) and summer (July-August- September) seasons. Results show that doubled CO2 concentration causes warming of around 2 °C at all levels in the model. At the surface, the largest temperature change is found over the polar areas; while at the higher levels considerable warming is found mostly over the continental parts. Atmospheric warming at the 300 hPa level is accompanied by cooling over the polar areas. At the levels above 300 hPa, temperature drops globally. Changes in jet stream occur at Northern Hemisphere with larger winter amplitudes. During the respective winter, stratiform precipitation significantly increases at the higher latitudes of both hemispheres and decreases mostly over the oceans. Over the Northern Hemisphere, convective precipitation is significantly increased during the summer. Over the southern part of tropical Pacific, stratiform and convective precipitation is decreased during the both seasons. Results also demonstrate that indirect impact of increased CO2 concentration (i.e. effects associated with changes in the lower boundary conditions) generally has a stronger contribution to the tropospheric warming than direct CO2 impact (i.e. the impact associated with absorption and emission of longwave radiation).

Exploring the Effects of Solar Radiation Management on Water Cycling in a Coupled Land–Atmosphere Model*

Abstract Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a form of geoengineering to reduce the climate effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Modeling studies have concluded that SRM, through a reduction in total solar irradiance by approximately 2%, roughly compensates for global mean temperature changes from a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations. This paper examines the impact of SRM on the terrestrial hydrologic cycle using the Community Land Model, version 4, coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, with reductions in solar radiation relative to simulations with present-day and elevated CO2 concentrations. There are significant global and regional impacts due to vegetation–climate interactions that are not compensated when reductions in total solar irradiance of 1%, 2%, and 3% are imposed on top of a doubling of present-day CO2 concentrations. Water cycling slows down under SRM, including decreases in global mean precipitation and evapotranspiration. Changes in runoff and soil moisture are spatially and temporally variable, with implications for local water availability. In the tropics, evapotranspiration decreases because of increases in vegetation water use efficiency. In northern midlatitudes, soil moisture increases when evapotranspiration decreases, with some exceptions during boreal summer. Changes in soil evaporation influence water cycling in the southern subtropics, rather than changes in transpiration. The hydrologic response to SRM is nonlinear, with global mean decreases greater than expected. These results imply that SRM may not compensate for higher greenhouse gas concentrations when one considers land–atmosphere interactions.

Influence of altered low cloud parameterizations for seasonal variation of Arctic cloud amount on climate feedbacks

This study investigates the alteration of climate feedbacks due to overestimated wintertime low-level cloud amount bias over the Arctic region (60°N–90°N) in a climate model. The climate feedback was quantitatively examined through radiative kernels that are pre-calculated radiative responses of climate variables to doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3). Climate models have various annual cycle of the Arctic cloud amount at the low-level particularly with large uncertainty in winter and CAM3 may tend to overestimate the Arctic low-level cloud. In this study, the seasonal variation of low-level cloud amount was modified by reducing the wintertime cloud amount by up to 35 %, and then compared with the original without seasonal variation. Thus, we investigate how that bias may affect climate feedbacks and the projections of future Arctic warming. The results show that the decrease in low-level cloud amount slightly affected the radiation budgets because of a small amount of incident solar insolation in winter, but considerably changed water vapor and temperature profiles. Consequently, the most distinctive was decreases in water vapor feedback and contribution of heat transport (by −0.20 and −0.55 W m−2 K−1, respectively) and increases in the lapse rate feedback and cloud feedback (by 0.13 and 0.58 W m−2 K−1, respectively) during winter in this model experiment. This study suggests that the change in Arctic cloud amount effectively reforms the contributions of individual climate feedbacks to Arctic climate system and leads to opposing effects on different feedbacks, which cancel out in the model.

Publication Bias in Measuring Anthropogenic Climate Change

We present a meta-regression analysis of the relation between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and changes in global temperature. The relation is captured by “climate sensitivity,” which measures the response to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations compared to pre-industrial levels. Estimates of climate sensitivity play a crucial role in evaluating the impacts of climate change and constitute one of the most important inputs into the computation of the social cost of carbon, which reflects the socially optimal value of a carbon tax. Climate sensitivity has been estimated by many researchers, but their results vary significantly. We collect 48 estimates from 16 studies and analyze the literature quantitatively. We find evidence for publication selection bias: researchers tend to report preferentially large estimates of climate sensitivity. Corrected for publication bias, the bulk of the literature is consistent with climate sensitivity lying between 1.4 and 2.3°C.

Soil Temperature and Phosphorus Supply Interactively Affect Physiological Responses of White Birch to CO<sub>2</sub> Elevation

Phosphorus (P) is a common limiting nutrient element to plants and its supply and uptake by plants are strongly influenced by soil temperature. However, the interactive effects of the two factors on the physiological responses of plants to global change are poorly understood. In this study, we examined how P supply and Tsoil interacted in affecting physiological responses in white birch (Betula papyrifera) to [CO2]. We exposed seedlings to 7˚C, 17˚C and 27˚C Tsoil, 0.1479, 0.3029 and 0.5847 mM P2O5, and 360 and 720 µmol∙mol −1 [CO2] for four months. We have found that both the low soil temperature and CO2 elevation resulted in photosynthetic down regulation but the specific mechanisms of the down regulation were different between the two treatments, particularly the relative contributions of biochemical and photochemical capacity, mesophyll conductance and sink strength for carbohydrate utilization to the down regulation. Furthermore, our data suggest that morphological adjustments, such as reduced leaf size and total leaf area, were the primary form of responses in white birch to low phosphorus supply and no significant physiological acclimation to P supply was detected. Our results suggest that white birch will likely enhance water use efficiency under the projected future climate conditions with doubled carbon dioxide concentration, particularly at warmer soil temperatures. Although a trade-off between water use efficiency and nutrient use efficiency is widely accepted, our results suggest that there does not have to be a trade-off between the two, for instance, CO2 elevation increased both use efficiencies and low soil temperature and reduced nitrogen efficiency without affecting water use efficiency under elevated CO2.

Low soil temperature inhibits the stimulatory effect of elevated [CO2] on height and biomass accumulation of white birch seedlings grown under three non‐limiting phosphorus conditions

White birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) seedlings were exposed to ambient or doubled ambient carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), three soil temperatures (Tsoil) (low, intermediate, high), and three phosphorus (P) regimes (low, medium, high) in environment‐controlled greenhouses. Height (H), root‐collar diameter (RCD), biomass, and leaf phosphorus concentration (leaf P) were determined four months after initiation of treatments. The low Tsoil reduced H, RCD, shoot biomass, root biomass and total seedling biomass whereas the high‐P level and the [CO2] elevation increased all the growth and biomass parameters. Elevated [CO2] significantly reduced leaf P. There were significant two‐factor interactions suggesting that the effect of elevated [CO2] on (1) H, total biomass, biomass of plant components, and leaf P was dependent on Tsoil, (2) total biomass was contingent on P regime. For instance, the positive response of H and total biomass to elevated [CO2] was limited to seedlings raised under the intermediate and high Tsoil, respectively. In addition, [CO2] elevation increased total biomass only at the high‐P regime but not at the low‐ or medium‐P level where the effect of [CO2] was statistically insignificant. No significant main effect of treatment or interaction was observed for root to shoot biomass ratio.

Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide

In addition to influencing climatic conditions directly through radiative forcing, increasing carbon dioxide concentration influences the climate system through its effects on plant physiology. Plant stomata generally open less widely under increased carbon dioxide concentration, which reduces transpiration and thus leaves more water at the land surface. This driver of change in the climate system, which we term 'physiological forcing', has been detected in observational records of increasing average continental runoff over the twentieth century. Here we use an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model that includes a vegetation component to assess the contribution of physiological forcing to future changes in continental runoff, in the context of uncertainties in future precipitation. We find that the physiological effect of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations on plant transpiration increases simulated global mean runoff by 6 per cent relative to pre-industrial levels; an increase that is comparable to that simulated in response to radiatively forced climate change (11 +/- 6 per cent). Assessments of the effect of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations on the hydrological cycle that only consider radiative forcing will therefore tend to underestimate future increases in runoff and overestimate decreases. This suggests that freshwater resources may be less limited than previously assumed under scenarios of future global warming, although there is still an increased risk of drought. Moreover, our results highlight that the practice of assessing the climate-forcing potential of all greenhouse gases in terms of their radiative forcing potential relative to carbon dioxide does not accurately reflect the relative effects of different greenhouse gases on freshwater resources.

Time-dependent solutions of the Fokker–Planck equation of maximally reduced air–sea coupling climate model

The time-dependent solutions of a reduced air–sea coupling stochastic-dynamic model are obtained using the Fokker–Planck equation and the quantum mechanical method. The analysis of the time-dependent solutions suggests that when the climate system is in the ground state, the system behaves in a Brownian motion, thus theoretically revealing the foothold of Hasselmann’s stochastic climate model; when the system is in the first excitation state, it evolves in a form of time-decaying, or a 2.3-year periodic oscillation under certain condition. At last, the results are used to discuss the impact of the doubling of carbon dioxide concentration on climate system.

Potential impacts of climate change on the grain yield of maize for the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Abstract The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and changes in associated climatic variables will likely have a major influence on regional as well as international crop production. This study describes an assessment of simulated potential maize ( Zea mays ) grain yield using (i) generated weather data and (ii) generated weather data modified by plausible future climate changes under a normal planting date and dates 15 days earlier and 15 days later using CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model. The analysis is for maize production at Cedara, a summer rainfall location within the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Baseline weather data input series were generated by a stochastic weather generator, ClimGen, using 30 years of observed weather data (1971–2000). The generated baseline weather data series was similar to the observed for its distributions of daily rainfall and wet and dry day series, monthly total rainfall and its variances, daily and monthly mean and variance of precipitation, minimum and maximum air temperatures, and solar radiant density. In addition, Penman-Monteith daily grass reference evaporation (ET o ) calculated using the observed and generated weather data series were similar except that the ET o values between 2 and 3 mm were less for the observed than for the corresponding generated values. Maize grain yields simulated using the observed and generated weather data series with different planting dates were compared. The simulated grain yields for the respective planting dates were not statistically different from each other. However, the grain yields simulated using the generated weather data had a significantly smaller variance than the grain yields simulated using the observed weather data series. The generated baseline weather data were modified by synthesized climate projections to create a number of climatic scenarios. The climate changes corresponded to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration to 700 μl l −1 without air temperature and water regime changes, and a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration accompanied by mean daily air temperature and precipitation increases of 2 °C and 10%, 2 °C and 20%, 4 °C and 10%, and 4 °C and 20%, respectively. The increase in the daily mean minimum air temperature was taken as three times the increase in daily mean maximum air temperature. Input crop parameters of radiation use and biomass transpiration efficiencies were modified for maize in CropSyst, to account for physiological changes due to increased carbon dioxide concentration. Under increased carbon dioxide concentration regimes, maize grain yields are much more affected by changes in mean air temperature than by precipitation. The results indicate that analysis of the implications of variations in the planting date on maize production may be most useful for site-specific analyses of possible mitigation of the impacts of climate change through alteration of crop management practices.

Physiological and Biochemical Characteristics of Sugar Beet Plants Grown at an Increased Carbon Dioxide Concentration and at Various Nitrate Doses

Three-week-old sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.) seedlings were grown for an additional four weeks under controlled conditions: in river sand watered with a modified Knop mixture containing one half-fold (0.5N), standard (1N), and or threefold (3N) nitrate amount, at the irradiance of 90 W/m2 PAR, and at the carbon dioxide concentrations of 0.035% (1C treatment) or 0.07% (2C treatment). The increase in the carbon dioxide concentration and in the nitrogen dose resulted in an increase in the leaf area and the leaf and root dry weight per plant. With the increase in the nitrogen dose, morphological indices characterizing leaf growth increased more noticeably in 1C plants than in 2C plants. And vice versa, the effects of increased CO2 concentration were reduced with the increase in the nitrogen dose. Roots responded to the changes in the CO2 and nitrate concentrations otherwise than leaves. At a standard nitrate dose (1N), the contents of proteins and nonstructural carbohydrates (sucrose and starch) in leaves depended little on the CO2 concentration. At a double CO2 concentration, the content of chlorophyll somewhat decreased, and the net photosynthesis rate (Pn) calculated per leaf area unit increased. An increase in the nitrogen dose did not affect the leaf carbohydrate content of the 1C and 2C plants except the leaves of the 2C-3N plants, where the carbohydrate content decreased. In 1C and 2C plants, an increase in the nitrogen dose caused an increase in the protein and chlorophyll content. Specific Pn values somewhat decreased in 1C-0.5N plants and had hardly any dependence on the nitrate dose in the 2C plants. The carbohydrate content in roots did not depend on the CO2 concentration, and the content was the highest at 0.5N. Characteristic nitrogen dose-independent acclimation of photosynthesis to an increased carbon dioxide concentration, which was postulated previously [1], was not observed in our experiments with sugar beet grown at doubled carbon dioxide concentration.

CLIMATE CHANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR TWO CALIFORNIA WATERSHEDS: ADDENDUM TO DOWNSCALED CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW STUDY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES

ADDENDUM: In the December 1999 JAWRA Special Issue on Water Resources and Climate Change, Miller et al., presented an overview of downscaled climate and streamfiow study of the southwestern United States. This manuscript included an initial sensitivity study of a doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on western U.S. precipitation and streamflow. In the published manuscript, Figure 12a shows the mean annual precipitation for 1981 to 1984 and Figure 15 shows the mean annual precipitation difference between the downscaled control simulation and the 2°CO2 projection. Both Figure 12a and Figure 15 are in units of mm/month. These units are incorrect, the correct units are mm/year. An additional California watershed is included here, as is more analysis of the streamflow result due to climate change.

Storm-related sea level variations along the North Sea coast: natural variability and anthropogenic change

The influence of a changing wind climate on the sea surface elevations along the North Sea coast was investigated, with a statistical down-scaling technique and with a dynamical model. Firstly, in an analysis of past variability the two models were run for different periods: the numerical model for the winters 1955–1993 and the statistical one for the winters 1899–93. Secondly, a fine-scale time slice experiment for a control run and a scenario for doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was used (in both the dynamical and the statistical down-scaling model) to assess the sea level related changes due to an (anthropogenic) increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Both models agree on the following results: (a) In the past, the winter means of high water levels along the North Sea coast increase on the order of 1–2 mm/yr, on account of only the atmospheric forcing; (b) the high intramonthly percentiles – reduced by the winter averages – show no clear trend; and (c) the British Coast exhibits a slight negative and the continental coast an equally small positive tendency. In the climate scenarios, the effect on the high percentiles follows the same pattern. A slightly larger and everywhere positive difference is diagnosed in the mean water levels along the North Sea coast. Together with the hindcast result, the above interpretations might suggest a continuing increase of mean water levels at the North Sea coast due to an increasing CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere; this would occur throughout the second half of this century and, possibly, beyond. The high frequency variability appears to be much less affected. However, the natural variability of the system is too strong to clearly identify such a process, or attribute it to anthropogenic development. This study evaluates the impact of a changing atmospheric forcing only. Additional influences, such as the eustatic and isostatic effects, are not taken into account.

Simulating the effects of climate change on tropical montane cloud forests

Tropical montane cloud forests are unique among terrestrial ecosystems in that they are strongly linked to regular cycles of cloud formation. We have explored changes in atmospheric parameters from global climate model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum and for doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (2 × CO2) conditions which are associated with the height of this cloud formation, and hence the occurrence of intact cloud forests. These parameters include vertical profiles of absolute and relative humidity surfaces, as well as the warmth index1, an empirical proxy of forest type. For the glacial simulations, the warmth index and absolute humidity suggest a downslope shift of cloud forests that agrees with the available palaeodata. For the 2× CO2 scenario, the relative humidity surface is shifted upwards by hundreds of metres during the winter dry season when these forests typically rely most on the moisture from cloud contact. At the same time, an increase in the warmth index implies increased evapo-transpiration. This combination of reduced cloud contact and increased evapo-transpiration could have serious conservation implications, given that these ecosystems typically harbour a high proportion of endemic species and are often situated on mountain tops or ridge lines.

Verification of GCM-Generated Regional Seasonal Precipitation for Current Climate and of Statistical Downscaling Estimates under Changing Climate Conditions

Abstract Empirical downscaling procedures relate large-scale atmospheric features with local features such as station rainfall in order to facilitate local scenarios of climate change. The purpose of the present paper is twofold: first, a downscaling technique is used as a diagnostic tool to verify the performance of climate models on the regional scale; second, a technique is proposed for verifying the validity of empirical downscaling procedures in climate change applications. The case considered is regional seasonal precipitation in Romania. The downscaling model is a regression based on canonical correlation analysis between observed station precipitation and European-scale sea level pressure (SLP). The climate models considered here are the T21 and T42 versions of the Hamburg ECHAM3 atmospheric GCM run in “time-slice” mode. The climate change scenario refers to the expected time of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations around the year 2050. The downscaling model is skillful for all seasons except spring. The general features of the large-scale SLP variability are reproduced fairly well by both GCMs in all seasons. The climate models reproduce the empirically determined precipitation–SLP link in winter, whereas the observed link is only partially captured for the other seasons. Thus, these models may be considered skillful with respect to regional precipitation during winter, and partially during the other seasons. Generally, applications of statistical downscaling to climate change scenarios have been based on the assumption that the empirical link between the large-scale and regional parameters remains valid under a changed climate. In this study, a rationale is proposed for this assumption by showing the consistency of the 2 × CO2 GCM scenarios in winter, derived directly from the gridpoint data, with the regional scenarios obtained through empirical downscaling. Since the skill of the GCMs in regional terms is already established, it is concluded that the downscaling technique is adequate for describing climatically changing regional and local conditions, at least for precipitation in Romania during winter.

Regional Nested Model Simulations of Present Day and 2 × CO2 Climate over the Central Plains of the U.S.

A nested regional climate model is used to generate a scenario of climate change over the MINK region (Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas) due to doubling of carbon dioxide concentration (2 × CO2) for use in agricultural impact assessment studies. Five-year long present day (control) and 2 × CO2 simulations are completed at a horizontal grid point spacing of 50 km. Monthly and seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature over the MINK region are reproduced well by the model in the control run, except for an underestimation of both variables during the spring months. The performance of the nested model in the control run is greatly improved compared to a similar experiment performed with a previous version of the nested modeling system by Giorgi et al. (1994). The nested model generally improves the simulation of spatial precipitation patterns compared to the driving general circulation model (GCM), especially during the summer. Seasonal surface warming of 4 to 6 K and seasonal precipitation increases of 6 to 24% are simulated in 2 × CO2 conditions. The control run temperature biases are smaller than the simulated changes in all seasons, while the precipitation biases are of the same order of magnitude as the simulated changes. Although the large scale patterns of change in the driving GCM and nested RegCM model are similar, significant differences between the models, and substantial spatial variability, occur within the MINK region.

A Gcm Study of the Impact of Greenhouse Gas Increase on the Frequency of Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones

In order to make inferences on the possible future changes of tropical cyclogenesis frequency, we apply the diagnostic computation of the Yearly Genesis Parameter (YGP) proposed by Gray (1975) to the large-scale fields simulated by a GCM. The YGP is an empirical diagnostic of the frequency of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) based on six physical parameters computed from seasonal means of atmospheric and oceanic variables. In this paper, we apply the YGP diagnostic to the results of three climate simulations performed with the atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) of Meteo-France: ARPEGE-Climat. In a control simulation of the current climate, it is shown that the model has a realistic tropical climatology and that the computed YGP reproduces the geographical distribution of the tropical cyclogenesis frequency. The YGP is then applied to two simulations corresponding to two scenarios of doubled carbon dioxide concentration. The two experiments differ by the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used as a lower boundary condition. In both simulations the YGP gives a large increase of total cyclogenesis frequency, but without extension of the area of possible cyclone genesis. The increase in YGP is due essentially to the contribution of the ocean thermal energy factor in the thermodynamical potential. The dynamical parameters, on the contrary, limit the cyclogenesis increase and are a major explanation of the difference between the two experiments. This is in agreement with the results of the previous similar study of Ryan et al. (1992) concerning the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation modifications on tropical cyclone climatology. After discussing the observed relationships between ocean surface temperature and large-scale convection, and questioning the use of a fixed temperature threshold in the diagnosis of tropical cyclone frequency, we propose a modification to the YGP consisting in replacing the thermodynamical potential by a term proportional to the convective precipitation computed by the GCM. For the simulation of the present climate this modification affects only marginally the geographical distribution of tropical cyclone genesis, but for the doubled CO2 case, the modified YGP diagnoses a more limited increase in TC genesis in the Northern Hemisphere and a small reduction in the Southern Hemisphere, which seems in better agreement with other recent modelling studies with high resolution climate models (Bengtsson et al., 1996). We conclude that the modified YGP based on convective precipitation could serve as a useful diagnostic of tropical cyclone genesis, and should be tested in simulations with other GCMs.