Double Chance Research Articles

Sports Betting: An Application of Machine Learning to the Game Prediction

The study investigates the use of machine learning to predict the results of football matches, with its main goal being to enhance the effectiveness of sports betting techniques.An assessment of diverse machine learning methods was carried out by analyzing a comprehensive dataset that included European league games spanning 2008 to 2016, such as Random Forest, Gaussian Process Regression, Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, AdaBoost, XGBoost, and LightGBM. Our results revealed that the LightGBM and Ada model exhibited great performance, achieving an accuracy of 52.6% and 52.8% in predicting match outcomes.Moreover, we incorporated the concept of double chances into our analysis and a simulation-based betting strategy was used in our model, demonstrating a 3% profit margin. This study demonstrates a hopeful potential of machine learning. It is very useful in sports analysis and betting. At the same time, the study talks about some limitations. It also suggests directions for future research.

Assessment of post-thrombectomy brain hemorrhage in acute ischemic stroke with dual-energy CT: how reliable is it in clinical practice?

Acute ischemic stroke is currently among the main causes of mortality in Western countries. The current guidelines suggest different flowcharts of diagnostic work-up and treatment modalities, including endovascular thrombectomy. Immediately after intra-arterial recanalization, a brain CT scan is usually performed to assess for the presence of peri-procedural complications; in this setting, it is very hard, if possible, to differentiate blood from iodinated contrast material, which is normally present in ischemic tissue because of BBB disruption. Dual-energy CT may be used for this purpose, exploiting its ability to discriminate different materials. We retrospectively studied 44 patients with acute ischemic stroke who were treated with endovascular recanalization at San Giovanni Bosco Hospital in Turin and were then scanned with DECT technology. Subsequent scan was used as standard, since iodine from contrast staining is usually reabsorbed in 24h and blood persists longer. A χ2 test of independence was performed to examine the relationship between blood detected by DECT scan after the endovascular procedure and the presence of blood in the same areas on the following scans, with a significant result: χ2 (1, N = 37) = 10.7086, p = 0.0010. Patients with blood detected on DECT scans had a double chance of having hemorrhagic infarction in follow-up scans, (RR 2.02). The sensitivity and specificity of DECT were respectively 70% and 90%, with an overall diagnostic accuracy of 76% and a positive and negative predictive value, respectively, of 95% and 53%. Dual-energy CT scan after endovascular recanalization in ischemic stroke identifies early hemorrhagic infarction with excellent specificity and good overall diagnostic accuracy, representing a reliable diagnostic tool in everyday clinical practice.

Baseline benzodiazepine exposure is associated with greater risk of transition in clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P): a meta-analysis.

Emerging meta-analytical evidence indicates that baseline exposure to antipsychotics and to antidepressants in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) have opposite prognostic effects as regards imminent transition to psychosis, with antipsychotics associated with higher risk and antidepressants associated with a lower risk in comparison to not-exposed individuals. Despite their common use, baseline exposure to benzodiazepines (BDZ) in CHR-P has surprisingly received poor attention as a potential risk modulator for transition to psychosis. The current systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to fix such a knowledge gap. Systematic scrutiny of Medline and Cochrane library, performed up to 31 December 2022, searching for English-language studies on CHR-P reporting numeric data about the sample, the transition outcome at a predefined follow-up time and raw data on BDZ baseline exposure in relation to such outcome. Of 1893 identified records, five studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The proportion of participants with exposure to BDZ at baseline ranged from 5.5% (one study) to 46.2%, with an average of 16.8%. At the end of the period of observation, i.e., the follow-up as reported in the study, 28.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 19.7-39.1%] participants developed psychosis among the BDZ-exposed against 9.3% (7.3 to 11.9%) among the controls. CHR-P participants who were already under BDZ treatment at baseline had more than double chance of transition to psychosis than CHR-P participants who were BDZ-naïve. The risk ratio (RR) was 2.42 (95% CI 1.38-4.23) in the common effects model (z = 3.09; p = 0.002), and 2.40 (1.53 to 3.77) in the random-effects model (z = 5.40; p = 0.006; tau-squared = 0.0). There was no relevant heterogeneity: Cochran's Q = 1.49; df = 4; p = 0.828; I2 = 0.0% (95% CI 0.0-79%). Quality was good in four studies. Ongoing BDZ exposure at inception in CHR-P is associated with a higher risk of transition to psychosis at follow up. This meta-analytic association, which echoes a similar effect of baseline antipsychotic exposure, plausibly indicates that the clinicians' prescription of pharmacological intervention captures some form of prognostically-relevant information (e.g. an anxiety permeated mental state requiring BDZ prescription) that are not adequately encompassed by current CHR-P categorical criteria.

Evaluation of artificial substrate for oviposition and embryonic development of Xylocoris sordidus (Reuter, 1871) (Hemiptera: Anthocoridae)

The use of predators of the family Anthocoridae in biological control programs depends on efficient methodologies for their mass rearing. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the potential of an alternative substrate for oviposition and egg viability of the predator Xylocoris sordidus (Reuter, 1871) (Hemiptera: Anthocoridae). For this purpose, no-chance and double chance choice tests using natural (Bidens pilosa L.) and artificial substrates (cotton rolls) were made. In the double chance choice test, X. sordidus preferred the natural substrate for oviposition with about 12 times more eggs laid on the natural substrate. In the no-chance test, we observed no difference in the number of eggs laid on the substrates with means of 18.73 and 19.92 eggs for natural and artificial substrates respectively, however; egg viability was higher on cotton rolls with 85.5 and 99.8% for eggs laid on natural and artificial substrates respectively. The results demonstrated that cotton rolls substrate offers advantages for oviposition and egg viability, thus being strongly recommended for mass rearing of X. sordidus.

Advanced maneuvers in neonatal resuscitation at a hospital in the amazon region: associated factors

Objective: To analyze among newborns that required resuscitation the probability of chances between the need for advanced procedures and demographic and obstetric characteristics, use of substances and intercurrences during pregnancy. Methods: Descriptive and multivariate analytical study, carried out in a maternity hospital in the Amazon region. All medical records of newborns in 2018 were researched, and those with missing data and Cook’s distance <0,20 were excluded. The remaining were divided by the intervention performed: positive pressure ventilation or advanced maneuvers (orotracheal intubation, direct laryngoscopy, cardiac massage, drugs or CPAP mask). The variables analyzed were demographic and obstetric characteristics, use of substances and intercurrences during pregnancy. Logistic regression was used to derive unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results: 1611 infants went through resuscitation. Out of them, 217 were excluded, due to missing data and Cook’s distance <0,20. 41,2% of the the remaining 1394 required advanced maneuvers. Adjusted odds ratio revealed significant association between needing advanced resuscitation and low gestational age (5 times higher chances), 5th minute Apgar <7 (28 times higher chances), tobacco (9 times higher chances), small for gestational age (6 times higher chances), low birth weight (4-5 times higher chances), meconium (double chances), not specified gestational intercurrences (3 times higher chances) and absence of gestational diabetes (6 times higher chances). Conclusions: Prematurity, low birth weight, 5th minute Apgar <7, small for gestational age, meconium and tobacco were associated with higher chances of advanced maneuvers.

Developmental Twists: Sorgvliet.

Developmental Twists: Sorgvliet.

Double chance findings during radiation-free ERCP/cholangioscopy in pregnancy: incipient cholecystectomy clip erosion and a perplexing intraheptic invagination-like stent artifact (with video)

A 34-year-old woman underwent ERCP because of complicated cholelithiasis with acute cholecystitis and bilirubin of 6.2 mg/dL. On cholangiogram, an impacted stone at the cystic duct (CD) takeoff emerged along with a higher, occlusive CD stone. The patient was referred for early cholecystectomy after placement of a 10F biliary double-pigtail stent. Repeated ERCP was scheduled 6 weeks later but was later postponed to 3 months because the patient became pregnant in the interim. At week 9, a completely radiation-free procedure was performed, including electrohydraulic lithotripsy of the obstructing stone (A).

Factors Influencing Uptake of Breastfeeding: The Role of Early Promotion in the Maternity Hospital.

Background: This study aimed to explore the prevalence of breastfeeding at birth points in Sicily and the relevance of the factors influencing the adoption of exclusive breastfeeding during hospitalization linked to childbirth. Methods: A survey was conducted to monitor the prevalence of breastfeeding in seven out of nine facilities providing maternity services in the province of Catania (Sicily, Southern Italy) in the years 2016–2018. An online questionnaire was administered using an electronic tablet by the midwife to the mother after discharge. Results: Women who had a higher educational qualification breastfed in a greater proportion (59.6%; odds ratio OR 0.60 for abandoning breastfeeding). Having had a caesarean section moderately impaired breastfeeding uptake, with an almost double chance of declining exclusive breastfeeding (OR = 1.74). Starting breastfeeding within 1 h from delivery showed a significant facilitating effect (OR = 0.58). Rooming-in had a strong facilitating effect on exclusive breastfeeding. A breastfeeding advocacy program was shown to protect from abandoning breastfeeding. Conclusions: It is important to offer in all hospitals the possibility and support for breastfeeding in the first moments after childbirth to increase the number of those who will then continue with exclusive breastfeeding.

Incidental finding of APC deletion in a child: double trouble or double chance? \u2013 a case report

Background22q11.2 deletion syndrome is one of the most common genomic disorders, characterized by the variable presence of facial dysmorphisms, congenital cardiac defects, velopharyngeal insufficiency/cleft palate, thymic hypoplasia/aplasia, immunodeficiency, parathyroid hypoplasia, developmental delay, learning disabilities, psychiatric disorders, renal, ocular, and skeletal malformations, hearing loss and laryngeal abnormalities. Chromosomal microarray (CMA) hybridization is one of the most performed diagnostic tests but as a genome wide analysis, it can point out relevant incidental copy number variations.Case presentationWe report the case of a 2-year-old boy that came to our attention for mild psychomotor delay, poor growth, and minor facial anomalies. Considering a diagnosis of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome, we performed CMA that not only confirmed our diagnosis, but also pointed out an additional de novo 5q21.3q22.2 microdeletion, encompassing APC gene. As a result of the genetic testing we enrolled the patient in a tailored surveillance protocol that enabled the early detection of a hepatoblastoma. The child underwent surgical and chemotherapic treatments with complete cancer eradication.ConclusionsThe concurrent finding of an expected result and an additional deletion of APC gene represents an example of a relevant issue about the health and ethical management of secondary findings revealed by genome-wide tests. Furthermore, this report highlights the need to develop dedicated surveillance guidelines for children with APC-related polyposis and raise the question whether to suspect and screen for APC-related conditions in cases of sporadic hepatoblastomas.

A Model for Improving Guesses of Future Soccer League Game Results

In this paper we propose a model for predicting future soccer game results by using information about the results of past league games. First, from regressions we extracted the prediction confidence interval for the goal difference between the winner and the loser in each game. Second, we created an arbitrary range around zero and defined criteria for forecasting a win, a tie or a loss according to the location of the confidence interval relative to the arbitrary range we defined. Third, we gradually changed the edges of the arbitrary range and repeated the second step. Among all the arbitrary ranges, we chose the one that best predicted the match results. We found that the best arbitrary range accurately predicts 52% of the match results. Finally, we upgraded the model by allowing double chance betting, which offers gamblers five possible betting options: home team wins (1), home team wins or game ends in a tie (1 and X), away team wins (2), away team wins or game ends in a tie (2 and X), game ends in a tie (X). When double chance betting was allowed, the model accurately predicted 77% of the match results.

The Young Entrepreneurs of Europe and the Role of International Mobility

The Single European Market and the warranty of freedom of movement of goods and people within the European Union has made an impact in the share of European youth travelling internationally. This phenomenon has brought countless advantages including increased economic performance on the labor market, development of entrepreneurial actions and even personal growth. This paper estimates the impact of international mobility in Europe on youth entrepreneurship, after the individual’s returning in the country of origin. The data source for this study is a European survey launched within the Horizon 2020 project MOVE Mapping mobility – pathways, institutions and structural effects of youth mobility in Europe. Using Prosperity Score Matching on a generous sample providing data on both mobile and non-mobile respondents, we prove that people have double chances of becoming entrepreneurs if they had an intra-European mobility experience. Even though mobility has been shown to have statistically significant benefits, it only affected the entrepreneurship of European youth in a conservative way explained by the factors that encourage the youth to travel abroad.

Phase noise-induced double coherence resonances in a neuronal model

Phase noise-induced single coherence resonance (CR) has been reported in previous studies. It is reported here that double CRs can be induced in the FitzHugh–Nagumo (FHN) model by phase noise when the oscillation period of phase noise is much larger than the firing period of the FHN model. By analyzing peaks in the power spectrums for the fast voltage variable and the coefficient variations (CVs) of interspike interval (ISI) series, we find that double CRs corresponding to the frequency of phase noise and the firing frequency of the FHN model respectively appear at small and large noise intensities. This implies that there are double chances for the FHN model to take advantage of the benefits of phase noise. Possible causes of the single CR are also discussed.

Mundos distintos e realidades semelhantes: empregabilidade dos jovens no Nordeste e Sudeste brasileiros

The focus of this paper is how certain factors influence the probability of participation into the labor market for young people, ages 15 to 24, in the Brazilian Northeast and Southeast, regions markedly different from each other, in several dimensions. To this end, it is analyzed the relative risk factors and the marginal effects of a logistic function applied to the microdata from the 2012 National Household Sample Survey (PNAD). Despite the socioeconomic disparities between the two Brazilian regions, they showed similarities in the effect of determining factors on employability. It was shown that education and work experience positively influenced the incorporation of youth into the labor market, mainly in the Brazilian Southeast, where one more year of schooling increases the chance of employment in 16%. Being female has a negative effect on the likelihood of employment, particularly in the Brazilian Northeast, where male youth have double chance of being employed compared to females. Yet, white youth living in the Southeast have 28% less chance of being employed compared to non-whites. These results suggest the paths that public policies could take, specific for each Brazilian region, to mitigate unemployment among young people. DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-30982015000000019

Public Health Action for public health action

Public Health Action for public health action

881 – Mutual interaction of mood and personality: a transactional model

Some personalities are more prone to mood disorders than others and treatment of mood disorders is more difficult in the setting of personality disorders. Many boots of depression attacks are without major life events. Personality disordered persons show earlier attacks of mood disorders in their life with a tendency to treatment resistance and early recurrence designing a model on mutual interaction of mood and personality might be very fruitful. To find more practical risk factors for chronic depression and improving the prognosis of these patients. Three hundred and fifty nine patients with major depression were evaluated with the MCMI-III and Hamilton's depression scale at diagnosis and 12 and 24 weeks after medical treatment. Two sixty patients group with comparable personalities were compared for receiving personality guided therapy or not. Personality disordered patients have a double chance of developing major depression during their lifetime as compared to normal persons as exemplified by their reference to our center. Hamilton's depression scale was reduced significantly more in personality normal patients than their disordered counterpart (p< 0.04). Those who received personality guided therapy fared also much better after 12 and 24 weeks after treatment. We conclude that personality is a major risk factor both in developing depression and in reduced responsiveness to conventional treatments. Patients with premorbid personalities should receive more intensive drug therapy in addition to personality guided therapies. Personality acts both cis (in the same side) and trans (in the opposite side) of mood.

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Prediction of chronic post-operative pain: Pre-operative DNIC testing identifies patients at risk

Surgical and medical procedures, mainly those associated with nerve injuries, may lead to chronic persistent pain. Currently, one cannot predict which patients undergoing such procedures are ‘at risk’ to develop chronic pain. We hypothesized that the endogenous analgesia system is key to determining the pattern of handling noxious events, and therefore testing diffuse noxious inhibitory control (DNIC) will predict susceptibility to develop chronic post-thoracotomy pain (CPTP). Pre-operative psychophysical tests, including DNIC assessment (pain reduction during exposure to another noxious stimulus at remote body area), were conducted in 62 patients, who were followed 29.0 ± 16.9 weeks after thoracotomy. Logistic regression revealed that pre-operatively assessed DNIC efficiency and acute post-operative pain intensity were two independent predictors for CPTP. Efficient DNIC predicted lower risk of CPTP, with OR 0.52 (0.33–0.77 95% CI, p = 0.0024), i.e., a 10-point numerical pain scale (NPS) reduction halves the chance to develop chronic pain. Higher acute pain intensity indicated OR of 1.80 (1.28–2.77, p = 0.0024) predicting nearly a double chance to develop chronic pain for each 10-point increase. The other psychophysical measures, pain thresholds and supra-threshold pain magnitudes, did not predict CPTP. For prediction of acute post-operative pain intensity, DNIC efficiency was not found significant. Effectiveness of the endogenous analgesia system obtained at a pain-free state, therefore, seems to reflect the individual’s ability to tackle noxious events, identifying patients ‘at risk’ to develop post-intervention chronic pain. Applying this diagnostic approach before procedures that might generate pain may allow individually tailored pain prevention and management, which may substantially reduce suffering.

Konzepte und Leitthemen einer ökologischen Modernisierung der Wirtschaftsgeographie

Concepts and key issues of an ecological modernisation of economic geography. To date, economic geographers have addressed ecological problems only very hesitatingly despite the fact that an “ecologically modernised” economic geography could offer a double chance to the entire discipline. First, because there is a good opportunity to add new value to older, established approaches within the discipline. Second, because there is considerable demand for applied environmental knowledge in politics, economy and society. In our paper we will discuss several new approaches and concepts from within and from outside (economic) geography in order to present a conceptual framework for further research. In particular, we try to outline research topics and questions regarding different but fundamentally inter-connected spatial scales, namely at the macro level (national and international regulation, environmental governance), at the meso level (environmental protection in regional context) and at the micro level (environmental performance of firms).

Double chance of depression for diabetics

Diabetics are twice as likely as nondiabetics to suffer from depression. The extent of the association was apparent from a meta-analysis of 20 studies from the last 25 years that, collectively, comprised 20218 individuals. Ryan Anderson et al. (2001) (Diabetes Care 24, 1069–1078) found that 11% of diabetics presented with major depression and 31% with symptoms of elevated depression. The relationship between the two conditions was unaffected by gender, type of diabetes or method of assessment. The authors say that recognition and better treatment of depression are important in themselves, but they could also improve medical outcome in a substantial portion of patients with diabetes’. HN

At least Mr Mullet has put some swing in the election.

If you ask me, anyone who sports a mullet haircut in this day and age is asking for a fat lip. Combine this hair-like-a-burst-sofa with a propensity to throw eggs at people, and you double your chances of getting walloped.