Domino Effect Research Articles

Brexit – the EU membership crisis that wasn’t?

This introduction to the special issue recalls the alarm raised in EU capitals and Brussels after the UK’s in-out referendum delivered a Leave vote in June 2016. The fear was of a domino effect and the further fragmentation of an already divided EU. Seven years later, it is clear that there was rapid attrition of Eurosceptic triumphalism, and the EU-27 showed remarkable unity. This required a sustained collective effort to contain a membership crisis and maintain the EU polity. Yet, the issue contributors challenge the notion that the alarm was unfounded and explain why this counter-factual did not materialise, even though potential for future membership crises of different sorts was revealed. Theoretically, this supports an understanding of the EU as a polity that is fragile, yet able to assert porous borders, exercise authority over a diverse membership, and mobilise a modicum of loyalty when the entire integration regime is under threat.

The effects of dynamic multi-hazard risk assessment on evacuation strategies in chemical accidents

With the agglomeration and complication of the chemical industry, the multi-hazard and dynamic characteristics have become new challenges for chemical safety management and loss prevention research. As an important topic of safety research in chemical industries, the evacuation strategy also needs to be improved according to the new characteristics of chemical accidents. Here we propose a method for evacuation strategy development in chemical accidents based on dynamic and multi-hazard risk assessment. This method adopts the cumulative individual risk as the evaluation indicator for the optimal evacuation strategy. This method can dynamically consider the multi-hazard characteristics and domino effects of chemical accidents during the evacuation. A multi-hazard chemical accident that happened in Xiangshui, China in 2019 is taken as a case study to show the effects of risk assessment results on evacuation strategy development. The case shows that a reasonable time period for shelter-in-place after the occurrence of the primary accident can reduce the cumulative individual risk in the evacuation process. It is expected that this paper can provide guidance and reference for loss prevention in chemical industries, and can also provide useful tools for the management of emergency response.

Optimizing safety barrier allocation to prevent domino effects in large-scale chemical clusters using graph theory and optimization algorithms

Domino effects are high-impact low-probability events that can have catastrophic consequences. To prevent and to reduce risks related to such events, safety barriers (SBs) are crucial. However, the initiation, propagation, and stopping processes of domino effects are characterized with complexity and uncertainties and hence they are unpredictable. This makes it challenging to allocate SBs based on predicted probabilities. In this study, a multi-objective optimization model which integrates graph theory with Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) was proposed to allocate add-on SBs effectively. Graph metrics were used to quantify the escalation risks related to storage tanks and to optimize the allocation of add-on SBs, thereby minimizing the consequences of a domino effect under a budget constraint. The results of the case study demonstrate great efficiency in finding globally optimal strategies with a largest reduction of 94.3% in the out-closeness score due to the implementation of add-on SBs, allowing decision-makers to choose the most preferable investment strategy in face of domino effect risk. Our study therefore provides a novel approach to achieve an optimal allocation of add-on SBs globally and can be useful in preventing domino effects in large-scale chemical clusters equipped with a large number of storage tanks.

The "Domino effect" in MASLD: The inflammatory cascade of steatohepatitis.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is an increasingly common complication of obesity, affecting over a quarter of the global adult population. A key event in the pathophysiology of MASLD is the development of metabolic-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), which greatly increases the chances of developing cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The underlying cause of MASH is multifactorial, but accumulating evidence indicates that the inflammatory process in the hepatic microenvironment typically follows a pattern that can be roughly divided into three stages: (1) Detection of hepatocyte stress by tissue-resident immune cells including γδ T cells and CD4-CD8- double-negative T cells, followed by their secretion of pro-inflammatory mediators, most notably IL-17A. (2) Recruitment of pro-inflammatory cells, mostly of the myeloid lineage, and initiation of inflammation through secretion of effector-type cytokines such as TNF, TGF-β, and IL-1β. (3) Escalation of the inflammatory response by recruitment of lymphocytes including Th17, CD8 T, and B cells leading to chronic inflammation, hepatic stellate cell activation, and fibrosis. Here we will discuss these three stages and how they are consecutively linked like falling domino tiles to the pathophysiology of MASH. Moreover, we will highlight the clinical potential of inflammation as a biomarker and therapeutic target for the treatment of MASLD.

Effects of flood‐induced financial stress on the viability of a cooperative production system and its farmers: A multilevel study

AbstractFloods can severely disrupt agricultural activities. When these activities are part of production chains, domino effects can occur. We use agent‐based modeling to simulate the production dynamics of a French cooperative winery as an example of a production chain, adopting a dual individual‐collective perspective. The cash‐flow analysis shows that there are nonexplicit mechanisms in the cooperative organization that allow the propagation of flood impacts throughout the chain and influence the winegrowers' ability to cope, thus threatening the continuity of the winegrowers' activity and the cooperative winery itself.

Family screening after newborn screening: The “domino effect” for Fabry disease

Family screening after newborn screening: The “domino effect” for Fabry disease

In Situ Optical Detection of Amines at a Parts-per-Quadrillion Level by Severing the Through-Space Conjugated Supramolecular Domino.

Conventional fluorophores suffer from low sensitivity and selectivity in amine detection due to the inherent limitations in their "one-to-one" stoichiometric sensing mechanism. Herein, we propose a "one-to-many" chain reaction-like sensing mechanism by creating a domino chain consisting of one fluorescent molecule (e.g., PTF1) and up to 40 nonemissive polymer chains (pPFPA) comprising over thousand repeating units (PFPA). PTF1 (the domino trigger) interacts with adjacent PFPA units (the following blocks) through polar-π interactions and initiates the domino effect, creating effective through-space conjugation along pPFPA chains and generating amplified yellow fluorescent signals through charge transfer between PTF1 and pPFPA. Amine exposure causes rapid dismantling of the fluorophore-pPFPA-based domino chain and significantly reduces the amplified emissions, thus providing an ultrasensitive method for detecting amines. Relying on the above merits, we achieve a limit of detection of 177 ppq (or 1.67 × 10-12 M) for triethylamine, which is nearly 4 orders lower than that of previous methods. Additionally, the distinct reactivity of pPFPA toward different amines allows for the discrimination of primary, secondary, and tertiary amines. This study presents a "domino effect" sensing mechanism that has not yet been reported and provides a general approach for chemical detection that is beyond the reach of conventional methods.

Prediction of Subclinical and Clinical Multiple Organ Failure Dysfunction in Breast Cancer Patients-A Review Using AI Tools.

This review explores the interconnection between precursor lesions of breast cancer (typical ductal hyperplasia, atypical ductal/lobular hyperplasia) and the subclinical of multiple organ failure syndrome, both representing early stages marked by alterations preceding clinical symptoms, undetectable through conventional diagnostic methods. Addressing the question "Why patients with breast cancer exhibit a tendency to deteriorate", this study investigates the biological progression from a subclinical multiple organ failure syndrome, characterized by insidious but indisputable lesions, to an acute (clinical) state resembling a cascade akin to a waterfall or domino effect, often culminating in the patient's demise. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using PubMed, Google Scholar, and Scopus databases in October 2023, employing keywords such as "MODS", "SIRS", "sepsis", "pathophysiology of MODS", "MODS in cancer patients", "multiple organ failure", "risk factors", "cancer", "ICU", "quality of life", and "breast cancer". Supplementary references were extracted from the retrieved articles. This study emphasizes the importance of early identification and prevention of the multiple organ failure cascade at the inception of the malignant state, aiming to enhance the quality of life and extend survival. This pursuit contributes to a deeper understanding of risk factors and viable therapeutic options. Despite the existence of the subclinical multiple organ failure syndrome, current diagnostic methodologies remain inadequate, prompting consideration of AI as an increasingly crucial tool for early identification in the diagnostic process.

Pedestrian dynamics on slopes: Empirical analysis of level, uphill, and downhill walking

Pedestrian safety on inclined walking facilities merits greater attention than that on level surfaces. Crowd accidents and domino effects are more likely to occur on slope walkways, especially at high crowd densities, as in the tragic case of the 2022 Itaewon Halloween crowd crush in South Korea. However, experimental investigations of the pedestrian dynamics on slopes with varying inclinations are scarce. In this study, a controlled experiment involving 48 participants was conducted to investigate the differences in pedestrian movement characteristics during level, uphill, and downhill slope walking. A wide range of slope inclinations was considered, namely 0°, 3°, 7°, 12°, 17°, and 22°. The results demonstrated that walking speeds uphill are lower than those on flat terrains, and uphill speeds decrease with increasing inclination. In contrast, increased slope inclinations do not always correspond to reduced downhill speeds. Notably, at inclinations of 3° and 7°, the downhill speed exceeds that of level walking, suggesting that a mild downhill slope can facilitate faster movement. Compared with downhill walking, pedestrians exhibit more lateral motion and significantly lower speeds (p < 0.01) when walking uphill at the same inclination. However, the average flow rate during downhill walking is lower than those observed on flat ground and uphill terrain. This difference may be attributable to the lower pedestrian density during downhill walking to reduce the likelihood of falling. These findings can enhance the understanding of pedestrian dynamics on ramps and have significant implications for the design of safer inclined walking facilities and prevention of potential disasters on such walkways.

Damage mitigation method studies through simulation modeling of chemical accidents

AbstractIn the chemical industry, when a fire occurs, a significant amount of energy is generated due to combustion, impacting other facilities within the plant and potentially leading to severe consequences through a domino effect. For decades, thermal radiation caused by flames has been calculated and predicted through simplified fire modeling. However, with advancements in computing technology, numerical model‐based calculations have greatly improved, allowing for a more realistic implementation that considers actual phenomena. In this study, accident data and 3D modeling information were utilized to conduct fire modeling and simulation based on actual incidents in chemical plants. Through the analysis of simulation results, the initial emergency evacuation distance was provided to minimize the damage caused by thermal radiation, and the final evacuation distance was presented using the probit function. In addition, the study evaluated the impact of generated thermal radiation and overpressure on structures and equipment, providing evidence regarding the potential for secondary incidents. Moreover, the research revealed that the impact of thermal radiation and overpressure decreases due to obstacles, offering insights into the selection of emergency evacuation routes. This study can contribute to supporting effective emergency evacuation strategies in chemical facilities.

Time-dependent earthquake-fire coupling fragility analysis under limited prior knowledge: A perspective from type-2 fuzzy probability

Earthquake-triggered fire domino scenarios (E-FDSs) arise frequently from the interaction between earthquakes and chemical installations, resulting in catastrophic multi-hazard coupling events. The complicated mutually amplified phenomena between natural disasters and chemical accidents significantly aggravates the escalation of domino accidents, which has posed great challenges for modeling and preventing E-FDSs. Under this impetus, this work proposes an advanced type-2 fuzzy probabilistic methodology to obtain the time-dependent failure probability of steel cylindrical tanks (SCTs) subjected to the earthquake-fire sequence. To cope with the limited prior knowledge on E-FDSs, a basic universal is established to describe the fire resistance attenuation caused by the seismic damage. The coupling failure criterion of SCTs is formulated by a type-2 fuzzy time-dependent limit state equation. A credibility-based stochastic simulation algorithm is developed for the hybrid uncertainty analysis (combining ambiguity and stochasticity). The proposed methodology is validated by case studies of a 5000 m3 fixed roof tank. Compared to the existing accident probability model, the proposed methodology can not only capture the fire resistance attenuation caused by the seismic damage but also provide a dynamic estimation of tank failure probability with respect to the fire exposure time. The proposed methodology can effectively and dynamically capture the accident evolution process, which in turn helps mitigate and prevent the spatiotemporal propagation of domino effects.

Tragic Choices, Government Actions and the 'Domino Effect' the Case of the COVID-19 Syndemic and the Italian Scenario

Tragic Choices, Government Actions and the 'Domino Effect' the Case of the COVID-19 Syndemic and the Italian Scenario

Инцидентность рецидивов грыж межпозвонковых дисков и «эффекта домино» после гемиламинэктомии и мини‑гемиламинэктомии в грудопоясничном отделе у собак

The work was carried out to establish the frequency of recurrences of intervertebral disc herniation’s in dogs at the site of spinal cord decompression using hemilaminectomy and mini-hemilaminectomy and to assess the risk of a «domino effect» in adjacent spaces of the thoracolumbar spine. The studies were carried out in 2021–2023. on the basis of the Department of Veterinary Surgery of the Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education MGAVMiB – MVA named after K. I. Skryabin over 170 clinically ill dogs diagnosed with intervertebral disc herniation of the first type according to Hansen (extrusion). The animals were divided into 1 groups: in the first group (n=85) surgical treatment was performed using the hemilaminectomy method, in the second group (n=2) – using the mini-hemilaminectomy method. As a result of the research, it was found that the frequency of recurrence of intervertebral disc herniation’s at the site of spinal cord decompression after hemilaminectomy is 85 %, after mini-hemilaminectomy – 2,4 % (the difference is not statistically significant, p=1,2). The risk of a «domino effect» in the spaces adjacent to the site of spinal cord decompression after hemilaminectomy was 0,56 %; after mini-hemilaminectomy, no manifestations of the “domino effect” were recorded (the difference is statistically significant, p=4,7).

Сравнительный анализ влияния декомпрессионных методик на диапазон движения позвонков в грудопоясничном отделе позвоночного столба у собак

The work was carried out with the aim of conducting a comparative analysis of the effect of hemilaminectomy and mini-hemilaminectomy on the range of motion of the vertebrae in the thoracolumbar spine in dogs and to establish a correlation between changes in the range of motion of the vertebrae at the site of decompression and in adjacent spinal motion segments with the incidence of relapses of intervertebral disc extrusions and the emergence of a «domino effect». The research was carried out in 2023 on the basis of the Department of Veterinary Surgery of the Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education MGAVMiB – MBA named after K. I. Scriabin. The object of the study was sectioned material from dogs of chondrodystrophic breeds (n=5), the subject of the study was the thoracolumbar section of the spinal column Th10-S1. The range of motion of the vertebrae in each individual spinal motion segment was studied by comparing their positions in the neutral position, during flexion and during extension: in the native state – 3 samples, in the native state and after hemilaminectomy at the Th13-L1 level – 1 sample, in in the native state and after performing a mini-hemilaminectomy at the Th13-L1 level – 1 sample. At the site where the decompression technique was applied, the range of Th13-L1 vertebral motion increased by 51,66 % with hemilaminectomy and decreased by 0,76 % with mini-hemilaminectomy (the difference is statistically significant, p=0.001). In the adjacent spinal motion segment Th12– Th13, the range of vertebral motion increased by 22,25 % with hemilaminectomy and by 8,39 % with mini-hemilaminectomy (the difference is statistically significant, p=0,01). The correlation coefficient between the frequency of relapses of extrusions and changes in the range of motion of the vertebrae at the site of decompression is 0,71, which indicates a relationship between the average tightness between the analyzed indicators. The correlation coefficient for the risk of the «domino effect » and changes in the range of motion of the vertebrae in spinal motion segments adjacent to the site of decompression is 0,77, which indicates a strong correlation between the analyzed indicators.

Applying a Multi-Sectoral Approach for Programming of Health Interventions: Comparative Analysis of Nutrition and Tobacco Control Amongst Adolescents in Pakistan

Adolescent health is being increasingly featured in global policy discourse on sustainable development. Despite global calls for more joined up working across relevant sectors, there is less known on how to effectively co-opt other sectors for programming of globally recommended adolescent health measures. This paper aimed to assess multisector programming of nutrition versus tobacco control interventions for adolescents in Pakistan from a political economy lens. Both nutrition programming and tobacco control rely on multi-sectoral programming and are one of the foremost areas for adolescent health needs in Pakistan. Data was drawn from 84 key informant interviews across government stakeholders, development partners, civil society organizations, experts and youth groups, review of policy and programming resources and published literature. The study scope was confined to exploring the pathway of programming and early implementation does not extend to evaluation of implementations. Existing frameworks of multi-sector governance were adapted and progress was assessed against i) issue framing, ii) stakeholder coalitions, iii) resourcing and iv) coordination platforms, to understand challenges and opportunities for an effective multi-sector response. Our analysis found important commonalities as well as differences across both nutrition and tobacco control programming in Pakistan. First, adolescents had a weak constituency within nutrition efforts confined to under-nutrition interventions for reproductive health and a gendered nuancing overlooking needs of boys but have featured historically in national Tobacco control frameworks. Second, lack of framing of social-behavioural perspectives in national response was commonly seen for both adolescent Nutrition as well as Tobacco Control constraining coalitions with new stakeholder groups such as youth initiatives, local government, sports, education, and entertainment that are necessary for lifestyle changes in adolescents. Third, Nutrition had opportune multi-sector platforms of the SUN networks available for programming whereas Tobacco Control situated within the health ministry struggled with mandate to steer multi-sector programming and unlock resources held by other sectors. Fourth, we found that horizontal coordination across sectors itself requires dedicated resourcing and capacity which was overlooked. The Pakistan case study adds to contextual insights on success and failure of multisector governance for nutrition providing an analytical contrast with a similar multi-sector issue of tobacco control. We conclude that the process of how multi-sector programming for adolescent nutrition is brought about within countries is equally important as the prescriptive content of globally advocated interventions. We also identified key elements of a pathway to more effective programming that include attention to i) inclusive framing for its domino effect on coalition building, ii) ensuring diversity within core coalitions; iii) an organisational home outside the health sector for programming across sectors; iv) dedicated resourcing for impactful coordination and oversight of multi-sector programming.

Isolation and molecular detection of Peste des petits ruminants virus in an outbreak investigation in Benishangul Gumuz, Ethiopia

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a severe and highly communicable disease. It is viral disease that particularly affects shoats. Its domino effects are economic losses through loss of production, deaths, abortions, and the cost of disease control. An outbreak investigation was conducted from May to November 2022 in Bambase district of Benishangul Gumuz regional state to determine the presence of PPR virus, and morbidity, mortality and case fatality rates. Altogether, 180 clinically diagnosed and 32 shoats with typical clinical sign of PPR were identified for laboratory confirmation Nasal and rectal swabs from 32 sheep and goats were collected and cultured on Verodog SLAM (VDS) cell line and tested using then tested using a quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT_PCR) assay and conventional PCR with 1.5% gel electrophoresis for detection of the N gene. The overall morbidity, mortality and case fatality rate was 17.77%, 2.77% and 15.62% respectively. Meanwhile, goats had a higher morbidity (26.5%), mortality (4.81%) and case fatality rate (18.18%) than sheep (10.3%, 1.03% and 10% respectively). Half (50%; 16/32) of samples were successfully cultivated on Vero dog SLAM cell line, showing cytopathic effects of PPR virus such as rounding cells, foamy vacuolation, aggregation and syncia formation. Out of 32 animals tested, 17 (53.13%) showed positive results for PPR virus by real-time PCR. Further analysis with conventional PCR revealed the presence of the N gene in all 17 positive samples with a 351bp fragment size. The results showed a higher morbidity rate in caprines than in ovines. Based on these findings, it is recommended to carry out a further phylogenetic study to identify the strain of virus circulating in the study area.

Contingent Convertible Bonds (CoCo bonds) and their market development in Albania

Convertible Contingent Bonds are important financial instruments for the stability of the banking and financial system in general. The role of innovative financial instruments is crucial to help address the challenges posed by these critical situations. One of these reintroduced instruments with ambitions to enhance the stability of the banking sector is the “Contingent Convertible Bond,” abbreviated as “CoCo.” This paper aims to explore the impact of the use of Convertible Contingent Bonds (CoCo) in financial crisis situations and their effect on avoiding the domino effect of a bank failure. Starting from the critical factor of the stability of the financial system, this analysis aims to shed light on the potential of these innovative instruments in improving the stability of the banking sector as well as the need for their modeling in the Albanian banking sector, considering the lack of treatment particular of these instruments in the current legislation. The analysis of the possibilities for their application in the Albanian banking system shows that, if implemented successfully, they can increase the regulatory capital of banks, strengthen financial stability and reduce the risk of government intervention in cases of crises. In conclusion, the use of CoCo bonds in Albania should be accompanied by the improvement of legislation and the encouragement of financial institutions’ investments in these instruments, to create a safer and more stable environment in the country’s banking sector. Keywords: Contingent Convertible Bonds (CoCo bonds), Basel III, resolution, financial crisis.

A hybrid model for dynamic analysis of domino effects in chemical process industries

A hybrid model for dynamic analysis of domino effects in chemical process industries

Research on the decision-making of work safety investment in industrial park enterprises: evidence from behavioral experiments.

Due to the clustering of risk factors, industrial park safety accidents can easily trigger a domino effect. Work safety investment is the foundation of enterprise work safety in industrial parks. Therefore, increasing the work safety investment of enterprises in industrial parks is the key condition to prevent accidents. However, due to the typical negative externalities of industrial park work safety accidents, the decision-making process of work safety in park enterprises is influenced by other enterprises within the park, including imitation behaviors. This makes the decision-making of work safety in park enterprises very specific. In order to clarify the influencing factors and effects of work safety investment in industrial park enterprises, this study uses a behavioral experiment method and conducts decision-making experiments using the experimental platform O-Tree. The study recruits 76 participants who play the role of decision-makers in park enterprises. This study uses a lottery price experiment and a dictator experiment to measure the risk preference and altruism preference of the participants, respectively. The study introduces the real background of work safety investment in industrial park enterprises and collects data on work safety investment by the participants in different experimental scenarios. The research results show that the safety attitudes of decision-makers, altruism preference, accident experience, government work safety supervision, park management measures, and safety benefits positively influence work safety investment in park enterprises. The risk preference of decision-makers and the resource capability of work safety negatively influence work safety investment in park enterprises. Work safety investment in park enterprises is influenced by the work safety investment of other enterprises within the park.

Arthritis or an Adjacent Fascial Response? A Case Report of Combined Pyomyositis and Aseptic Arthritis

Pyomyositis, accompanied by aseptic arthritis, has been previously documented in several publications. However, none of the authors in the mentioned case reports offered a pathophysiological explanation for this unusual phenomenon or proposed a treatment protocol. We present a case of a healthy, 70‐year‐old male who was presented to the emergency department 4 days after tripping over a pile of wooden planks and getting stabbed by a nail to his thigh. The right thigh was swollen. Unproportional pain was produced by a light touch to the thigh. A laboratory test and a CT scan were obtained. The working diagnosis was pyomyositis of the thigh and septic arthritis of the ipsilateral knee. The patient underwent urgent debridement and irrigation of his right thigh. An arthroscopic knee lavage was performed as well. Intraoperative cultures from the thigh revealed the growth of Streptococcus pyogenes and Staphylococcus aureus. Cultures from synovial fluid were sterile; thus, septic arthritis was very unlikely. The source of the knee effusion might have been an aseptic inflammatory response due to the proximity of the thigh infection. Anatomically, the quadriceps muscle inserts on the patella, and its tendon fuses with the knee capsule, creating a direct fascial track from the thigh to the knee. The inflammatory response surrounding the infection may have followed this track, creating a domino effect, affecting adjacent capillaries within the joint capsule, and causing plasma leakage into the synovial space, leading to joint effusion. Our suggested treatment is addressing the primary infection with antibiotics and considering adding anti‐inflammatory therapy, given our suspicion that this process has an inflammatory component.