Domino Effect Analysis Research Articles

Quantitative risk analysis of domino effect and natech accidents triggered by flood in liquor storage tank farms

Damage to atmospheric storage tanks from flooding may lead to severe natural-technological (Natech) accidents. In addition, subjected to escalation vectors such as thermal radiation or overpressure, neighboring tanks may fail and even cause new fire and explosion accidents, known as domino accidents. In this study, a new procedure is developed to quantify the risk of flood-induced Natech accidents on storage tanks by incorporating the potential domino effect into the same quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework. The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of the flow velocity field by numerical software effectively corrected the flood loads imposed on the storage tanks at different locations. The developed whole-process procedure was applied in a liquor storage tank farm. The propagation rule of domino effects for a single primary accident storage tank versus multiple primary accident storage tanks were discussed separately in the case study. The results showed that the scenario with two storage tanks as primary accidents required less cascades and a shorter time to end the domino propagation than a single storage tank. Moreover, in all scenarios discussed, the accident risk indices with domino effects considered were always higher than when it was not.

Modeling and analysis of domino effect in petrochemical storage tank farms under the synergistic effect of explosion and fire

The synergistic effect of explosion and fire (SEEF) is one of the challenges of domino effect risk assessment for petrochemical storage tank farms. However, the domino effect probabilities at different orders and accident propagation patterns in storage tank farms under the SEEF are still unclear. An approach based on Bayesian networks is developed to model the propagation of domino effects in storage tank farms under the SEEF. The method accounts for the temporal and spatial synergistic effects of blast wave and fire thermal radiation in multiple accidents during domino accident escalation and the damage enhancement effect caused by the SEEF on the target units. Application of the method to a real tank farm highlights that the SEEF has a significant impact on the domino effect probabilities. Compared with only considering a single accident type, the SEEF leads to an increase in the domino effect probabilities of the tank farm. Installing water deluge systems and blast walls for all tanks at the same time is an effective safety measure to mitigate domino effects due to the SEEF. When safety resources are limited, the priority to equip critical tanks with water deluge systems and blast walls can also mitigate the domino effects.

Comprehensive Failure Analysis in Tehran Refinery Fire Accident: Application of Accimap Methodology and Quantitative Domino Effect Analysis

Comprehensive Failure Analysis in Tehran Refinery Fire Accident: Application of Accimap Methodology and Quantitative Domino Effect Analysis

How to Determine the Dangerous Potential of Accidents to Domino Effect Detonation in a Hydrocarbon Processing Area?

The crude oil industry has been developed in recent decades due to the uses of this product, as well as its derivatives. One of the worst consequences phenomena that can occur in the process industry is the called domino effect. The domino effect or cascade effect occurs when an initiating event, such as a pool of fire or a vapor cloud explosion, causes a new number of accidents. Moreover, due to the importance of avoiding this phenomenon, the European Commission considers the domino effect analysis as mandatory for industrial facilities. There are methodologies in the specialized literature focused on quantifying the existing risks in the storage and processing of hydrocarbons. However, there is a tendency to develop new procedures that increase the risk perception of these accidents. In addition, it is necessary to develop a method that allows visualizing clearly and concisely the dangerous potential of fire and explosion accidents for the occurrence of the domino effect. Precisely, this research aims to predict the dangerous potential of fire and explosion accidents for the occurrence of the domino effect. For this purpose, a methodology consisting of three fundamental stages is developed. Finally, hydrocarbon storage and processing area is selected to apply the proposed methodology. Overall, the development of graphs that summarize information and show the dangerous potential regarding the escalation of fire and explosion accidents is vital in risk analysis. For the case study, the effectiveness of the same was demonstrated, since after its realization it was possible to increase the risk awareness of workers, technicians, and managers of the area taken as a case study.

Domino effect analysis at a gas facility: Application at a storage facility

In the context of the industrial process safety, the domino effect has become a topical issue for scientists and managers of companies given the diversity of factors that contributed to the aggravation of this phenomenon such as; proximity to industrial facilities, transport networks, development of industrial complexes, storage of hazardous substances and population growth. The purpose of this article is the MICDE method (Method of Identification and Characterization of Domino Effects) application on industrial zone of LPG storage in SONATRACH-Algeria Group for analyzes the domino effects caused by a major industrial accident.Our study is adopted on the MICDE method which constitutes an aid in the integration of the domino effects problem in hazard studies and safety studies. In our application, it aims to formalize the points relating to the domino effects due to the BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion) phenomenon of an LPG storage sphere.The results obtained show that the hazardous equipment in the vicinity is seriously affected by the thermal and overpressure effect of the main accident, and may be seats in a new accident. The MICDE method is a promising method can be applied in several fields since it studies the phenomenon. This method facilitates decision-making in the prevention of domino effects for the sustainability facilities

Probabilistic Analysis of Domino Effects by Using a Matrix-Based Simulation Approach.

Major industrial accidents occurring at so-called major hazard installations may cause domino accidents which are among the most destructive industrial accidents existing at present. As there may be many hazard installations in an area, a primary accident scenario may potentially propagate from one installation to another, and correlations exist in probability calculations of domino effects. In addition, during the propagation of a domino effect, accidents of diverse types may occur, some of them having a synergistic effect, while others do not. These characteristics make the analytical formulation of domino accidents very complex. In this work, a simple matrix-based modeling approach for domino effect analysis is proposed. Matrices can be used to represent the mutual influences of different escalation vectors between installations. On this basis, an analysis approach for accident propagation as well as a simulation-based algorithm for probability calculation of accidents and accident levels is provided. The applicability and flexibility of this approach is discussed while applying it to estimate domino probabilities in a case study.

A novel approach to distinguish the uniform and non-uniform distribution of blast loads in process industry

The blast load distribution is an important factor affecting the accuracy of structural damage and domino effect analysis caused by explosions in petroleum and chemical industries. The distribution is usually treated as the uniform or non-uniform and the latter is more suitable for the real scenarios. However, the applicability of the uniform distribution has not been studied in details. In the present study, both the blast load intensity model (BLIM) and blast damage intensity model (BDIM) are developed to represent uniform or non-uniform blast loads quantitatively. Three explosion types (free air burst, air burst and surface burst) and three target structural surfaces (rectangular plates, cylindrical shells and spherical shells) are considered in BLIM and BDIM. The element superposition method based on finite element model (FEM) is proposed, which can solve BLIM and BDIM accurately. Furthermore, the relative difference between the uniform and non-uniform distribution can be obtained on basis of BLIM and BDIM. Finally, the application condition for the rectangular plates - critical stand-off distances with the relative difference of 5%, is defined and verified to distinguish the uniform and non-uniform distribution. The study can provide an insight into the proper application of blast load distribution.

Analysis of Domino Effect Based on Bayesian Probability Explosion and Oil Tank Fire in Mixing Tank Area

Based on the domino effect and Bayesian network, this paper establishes the accident probability model of hybrid storage tank area. Taking a chemical storage tank area as an example to analyze the accident domino effect caused by accident parameters such as thermal radiation and explosion shock wave, we analyzed and calculated the damage probability of shock wave over-pressure and pool fire to adjacent equipment in liquefied gas storage tanks by considered that the occurrence of a pool fire accident in a single tank is a result of the incident. The results show that the control measures are combined with the energy transfer sequence of the accident, so that the safety protection measures proposed under this scenario can more effectively ensure the safety of the chemical tank farm.

Assessment of tanks vulnerability and domino effect analysis in chemical storage plants

safety and security in chemical industrial plants require special attention due to the related concentrated hazards. Actually, primary accidents such as fire and explosions, can escalate into domino effects in the storage tanks depending on the relative distance between tanks, the flammability and explosiveness of the stored material, the fragility to structural defects of the surrounding tank etc. Therefore, reducing the probability of domino effect within an industrial area has become a crucial concern in industrial risk analysis and assessment. The present paper redefines the vulnerability of tanks in the case of domino effect and creates the formation mechanism and evaluation model of multiple accident coupling scenarios. Based on the occurrence, propagation and influence of the primary accident (single accident or multi-accident scenario) and the fusion of matter element extension theory, entropy weight method, complex network model, TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) model and risk matrix, the weight I, weight II of evaluation index and the evaluation system are established which can determine easily the vulnerability level of tanks. For illustrative purposes, the application of Bayesian method indicated that the global site probability of failure (i.e. the failure of the surrounding tanks, after a first sequence accident) can be reduced by removing the most vulnerable tanks, which confirms the effectiveness of the assessment method.

Quantitative assessment of wildfire risk in oil facilities

Despite frequent occurrence of wildfires around the world, the role of wildfires has rarely been taken into account in risk assessment of process plants in wildlands, especially that large inventory of flammable petroleum products in contact with the heat of wildfire can lead to severe domino effects. We have developed a dynamic risk assessment framework by integrating available models of fire spread and domino effect analysis with online maps of wildfire characteristics such as ignition probability and heat intensity to investigate the impact of wildfires on oil facilities. The framework is modular, so one can readily enhance its accuracy by replacing the current techniques with more sophisticated ones. The application of the methodology is demonstrated on an oil terminal.

Risk-Based Domino Effect Analysis for Fire and Explosion Accidents Considering Uncertainty in Processing Facilities

Process facilities are vulnerable to catastrophic accidents due to the storage, transportation, and processing of large amounts of flammable/explosive materials. Among a variety of accident scenari...

Analysis of domino effect in the process industry using the event tree method

Domino scenarios are known to have severe consequences that need to be considered in Land-Use Planning. A domino effect can be initiated by several types of primary accidents, which are usually caused by a loss of containment (LOC). This study focuses on the development of a specific model for the assessment of domino scenarios based on event tree analysis. The model provides the identification of the event sequences and the accident scenarios following a LOC. A ranking based on the criticality of domino scenarios is also provided. An illustrative case study was used to demonstrate the procedure. The results confirmed that the proposed method is an effective decision support tool for domino effect prevention, allowing the identification of the most dangerous storage or process units with respect to domino effect scenarios.

Domino effect analysis of dust explosions using Bayesian networks

In most dust explosion accidents, a series of explosions consisting of a primary (dust) explosion and one or more subsequent secondary dust explosion(s) has been reported. Such chain of dust explosions can be referred to as a dust explosion domino effect (DEDE). DEDEs are capable of causing severe onsite and offsite damages to human, assets, and the environment, thus requiring a detailed understanding of the causes, consequences, probabilities, and escalation mechanisms thereof to prevent and mitigate the potential damages. In this research, we have developed a methodology for the probability estimation of DEDEs based on Bayesian network. The application and efficacy of the methodology have been demonstrated via a real-world case study. The results illustrate that the developed methodology can effectively portend the propagation of DEDEs while calculating the respective probabilities.

Domino Effect Analysis, Assessment and Prevention in Process Industries

AbstractDomino effect is a fairly common phenomenon in process industry accidents, which makes many process industry accidents serious and the consequent losses enhanced. Domino effect of the major accidents in chemical cluster is emphasized. Many researchers have studied domino effect in chemical clusters from different perspectives. In the review, we summarize the research from three aspects: The statistical analysis of domino accidents in chemical process industry, the evaluation of domino accidents and the prevention of domino accidents in chemical clusters by game theory. From the analysis, we can find the characteristic of domino accidents such as the time and the location, the origin and causes of domino accidents. The methods of assessing domino effects such as quantitative risk assessment (QRA), Bayesian networks (BN) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) are analyzed. The prevention of domino accidents in chemical clusters using game theory is seldom, and there is still much space for improvement in enterprises’ efforts to prevent risk of domino accidents.

Analysis of domino effect in pipelines

Parallel pipelines are frequently installed over long distances, due to the difficulty in creating or maintaining the required corridor. This implies that a release in one pipeline can seriously affect another one. The main risks associated with this domino effect are erosion by fluid-sand jets and the thermal action of jet fires. In this paper a survey has been performed on the accidents that have occurred, and the diverse associated domino sequences are analyzed. The probability of occurrence of domino effect is a function of the location of the hole, the jet direction and solid angle, the diameter of both pipelines and the distance between them. A mathematical model has been developed to estimate this probability. The model shows how the probability of domino effect decreases with the distance and diameter of the source pipe, and increases with the diameter of the target pipe. Its frequency can be estimated from this probability and from the frequency of the initiating pipe failure plus, in the case of jet fire impingement, the probability of ignition. The frequency of the target pipe failure thus calculated, always higher than its individual frequency, allows a more realistic risk analysis.

LNG pool fire simulation for domino effect analysis

A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pool fire has been performed using ANSYS CFX-14. The CFD model solves the fundamental governing equations of fluid dynamics, namely, the continuity, momentum and energy equations. Several built-in sub-models are used to capture the characteristics of pool fire. The Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equation for turbulence and the eddy-dissipation model for non-premixed combustion are used. For thermal radiation, the Monte Carlo (MC) radiation model is used with the Magnussen soot model. The CFD results are compared with a set of experimental data for validation; the results are consistent with experimental data. CFD results show that the wind speed has significant contribution on the behavior of pool fire and its domino effects. The radiation contours are also obtained from CFD post processing, which can be applied for risk analysis. The outcome of this study will be helpful for better understanding of the domino effects of pool fire in complex geometrical settings of process industries.

Domino Effects Related to Home-Made Explosives

The present study focuses on the analysis of domino effect triggered by overpressure caused by blast waves due to explosions derived by deliberate attacks to process plants and carried out with home-made explosives. The effects of blast waves caused by home-made explosives were compared with those expected from a net equivalent charge of TNT by using a specific methodology for the assessment of stand-off distances. The methodology was applied to a case study demonstrating the potentiality of homemade explosives in causing accident escalation and severe effects on population and assets, obtaining indications for the importance of adequate management of site security.

Method for Hazard Analysis of Chemical Process Equipment Taking Domino Effect into Account

The hazard of chemical process equipment consists of two parts: the inherent hazard of process equipment and the hazard from domino effect among equipments. The inherent hazard of equipment depends on the properties of the substance present in the equipment and the specific process conditions. The domino effect is responsibility for many most destructive accidents in the chemical process industry. However, domino effect is either not considered at all or is done with much less rigour than is warranted. A method was proposed to evaluate the hazard of chemical process equipment. The inherent hazard and the hazard from domino effect were considered in the method. The procedure for the domino effect analysis among equipments was presented to evaluate the hazard from the domino effect. The method was implemented in a case study. The results show that it can be used to select the process equipment which should be intensive monitored.

A Model for the Domino Effect Analysis in Quantitative Risk Assessment

The domino effect is responsibility for many most destructive accidents in the chemical process industry. The catastrophic consequences are not only affecting the industrial sites, but also people and environment. However, quantitative methods which take in to account the domino effect are still missing. A model for quantitative assessment of the domino effect is presented. The probabilities of occurrence are obtained by the event trees. The frequencies of different accidents can be obtained by applying the proposed method. The results of the case study show that the domino effect should be taken into account in quantitative risk assessment (QRA).

Potential Devastating Domino Effect: A Case Study of Msasa Industrial Area, Zimbabwe

Aims: To assess the likelihood of occurrence of domino effect in a group of neighbouring companies in Msasa Industrial area . Study Design:A case study approach was used. Place and Duration of Study:Msasa industrial area, Harare Zimbabwe between June 2011 and June 2012. Methodology: Information was sought through interviews, questionnaires and observations from 15 companies in Msasa. The What If Analysis (WIA) was also used to postulate the potential upsets that may result in accidents. A semi qualitative approximate domino effect analysis procedure was used to simulate the likely sequence of an event after its initiation. Discussion: In the cluster, domino effect was most likely to be initiated and propagat ed by fires (pool, flash, fireballs or jet), explosions (confined vapour cloud explosions (CVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosions (BLEVE), vented explosions, vapour cloud explosions, and dust explosions) and toxic release with effects ranging fr om being catastrophic, critical, marginal or negligible. It was found that there has been no domino risk analysis and hence was a strong possibility of destruction of the entire industrial area and neighbouring residential areas in the case of the forecast domino accidents. Toxic and dust releases were most likely to contaminate neighbouring residence leading to exposed toxic substance for long periods after the release.