Dominant Hydrological Processes Research Articles

Spatiotemporal Variations of Water Stable Isotope Compositions in Nujiang Headwaters, Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The variations of the stable isotope compositions in water provide critical information on hydroclimatic mechanisms. The climatological and hydrological processes in the Nujiang headwaters in the central Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau are extremely complex and are controlled by alternating continental/local recycled and maritime moisture. However, previous studies have only derived limited data from different types of water in the Nujiang headwaters. Therefore, aiming to understand the sources of stable oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δ2H) isotopes’ compositional variability and how these are related to hydroclimatic processes, we measured δ18O and δ2H values from surface waters, snow and precipitation across the Nujiang headwaters from April to September 2018. We found higher δ18O (−13.7‰), δ2H (−101.8‰) and deuterium excess (d-excess; 7.6‰) values in the non-monsoon season and lower values in the summer monsoon season. Our findings indicated that the δ18O and δ2H compositions were significantly affected by different moisture sources in this region. The slope (6.66) and intercept (−14.90) of the surface water line (SWL: δ2H = 6.66 δ18O − 14.90, R2 = 0.98) were lower than those of the local meteoric water line (LMWL: δ2H = 9.50 δ18O + 41.80, R2 = 0.99) and global meteoric water line (GMWL), indicating that precipitation was the primary water vapor source for surface water, and evaporation was the dominant hydrological process for the Nujiang headwaters. In general, δ18O and δ2H tended to be negatively correlated with precipitation and air temperature. In addition, δ18O and δ2H values in the Nagqu River were inversely correlated with the intensity of discharge, highlighting a precipitation-driven isotope-discharge pattern. Our findings provide a theoretical basis for the hydroclimatic mechanisms occurring in the Nujiang headwaters and further augment our understanding of the southern–middle–northern hydroclimate in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau.

Development of alternative SWAT-based models for simulating water budget components and streamflow for a karstic-influenced watershed

Most semi-distributed and distributed hydrological models can potentially be applied for comprehensive catchment simulations, but these models may require modifications to capture dominant hydrological processes. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) ecohydrological model, an open source program, provides flexibility for modification to capture different components of hydrological processes in a given catchment. In this study, two new approaches were tested to simulate the hydrological processes of a karst system in the Zagros Mountains, Iran. The major modifications used in these two methods included adjusting the percolation rates in karst hydrologic response units (HRUs) using SWAT-Maharlu Lake (SWAT-ML), and modification of the crack flow module using SWAT-Crack Flow (SWAT-CF). Hydrological datasets from 1980 to 2013 were used for calibration and validation of surface runoff, baseflow, crop yields, and actual evapotranspiration. Both modified models outperformed the standard SWAT model in simulating runoff. The respective average Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies of the original SWAT, SWAT-ML and SWAT-CF were 0.64, 0.68 and 0.66. Also, the results showed that higher deep aquifer infiltration values were estimated in the modified models versus the standard SWAT for a karst HRU, which reflects more accurate levels of recharge to the deep aquifer. However, the results showed that karst conditions and geometry of sinkholes in karst zones did not play a major role in creation of runoff.

Field-based estimation and modelling of distributed groundwater recharge in a Mediterranean karst catchment, Wadi Natuf, West Bank

Abstract. While groundwater recharge is one of the most prominently covered subjects in hydrogeology, the spatial distribution of recharge has been given relatively little attention, especially in semi-arid, karstic aquifers. Under conditions of highly diverse geology, relief, vegetation and land use, the complexity and variability of spatially distributed hydrological processes remains a challenge in many regions around the world. This is particularly true for hitherto ungauged basins, such as Wadi Natuf, a 103 km2 large karstic Eastern Mediterranean watershed in the Palestinian upstream mountain and recharge area of the Western Aquifer Basin (WAB), which is shared with Israel in the coastal plain. In this first in a series of two papers, distributed recharge is estimated and represented, based on 7 years of extensive field observations and measurements and based conceptually on observable physical landscape features such as geology, land use and land cover (LU/LC) and especially soil conditions. For the first time in the WAB, a forward calculated soil moisture and percolation model (SMSP) was set up with parameters directly gained from field observations. The model was parameterised in a strictly parsimonious manner, as a one-dimensional model (a.k.a. “tank”, bucket or box model). This is based on dominant hydrological processes, in particular saturation excess in the soil column, and identifying patterns of linkage between different landscape features. Average soil thickness was encountered at the range of decimetres, rarely above one metre. Both soil thickness and LU/LC features, such as terraced olive groves or forests as well as grassland or barren rock outcrops, were found to be highly formation specific. This linkage allowed us to further simplify the model and its requirements in a realistic manner for eight soil moisture stations, chosen at six different geological formations with typical soil and LU/LC representations. The main result of the model was the determination of formation-specific recharge coefficients, spatially ranging between 0 % and almost 60 % of annual rainfall or up to 300 mm a−1 in Wadi Natuf's climate. The karstified main aquifers showed recharge coefficients (RC) above 40 % and even the less prominent slightly aquitardal local aquifers reached RC values above 30 %. The model was separately tested on two conceptual levels: on the level of basin form (soil moisture) and basin response (signatures of peak recharge and local spring discharge events) under well-controlled conditions in isolated sub-catchments. In principle, our approach is applicable in many of the scarcely gauged karstic groundwater basins around the world with a highly diverse landscape and geology.

A process‐based approach to attribution of historical streamflow decline in a data‐scarce and human‐dominated watershed

AbstractHuman activities have resulted in rapid hydrological change around the world, in many cases producing shifts in the dominant hydrological processes, confounding predictions, and complicating effective management and planning. Identifying and characterizing such changes in hydrological processes is therefore a globally relevant problem, one that is particularly challenging in sparsely monitored environments. We develop a novel, process‐based approach for attribution of hydrological change in such scenarios and apply the approach to the TG Halli watershed outside Bangalore, India, where streamflow has declined considerably over the last 50 years. The approach consists of (a) employing a range of field instrumentation and experiments to identify contemporary streamflow generation mechanisms, (b) using these observations to constrain our understanding and generate hypotheses pertaining to historical changes, and (c) evaluating these hypotheses with a range of evidence including proxies for historical hydrological processes. The body of evidence in the TG Halli watershed indicates the historical presence and subsequent loss of a shallow groundwater table that previously discharged to the stream, meaning that groundwater depletion is the most likely driver of streamflow decline. These findings present a viable path towards improved predictions of future water resources and sustainable water management within the watershed. Our process‐based approach to attribution has the potential to improve understanding of human‐driven hydrological change in regions with poor monitoring of hydrological systems.

Characterizing hydrological processes within kettle holes using stable water isotopes in the Uckermark of northern Brandenburg, Germany

AbstractUnderstanding the hydrologic connectivity between kettle holes and shallow groundwater, particularly in reaction to the highly variable local meteorological conditions, is of paramount importance for tracing water in a hydro(geo)logically complex landscape and thus for integrated water resource management. This article is aimed at identifying the dominant hydrological processes affecting the kettle holes' water balance and their interactions with the shallow groundwater domain in the Uckermark region, located in the north‐east of Germany. For this reason, based on the stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δ2H), an isotopic mass balance model was employed to compute the evaporative loss of water from the kettle holes from February to August 2017. Results demonstrated that shallow groundwater inflow may play the pivotal role in the processes taking part in the hydrology of the kettle holes in the Uckermark region. Based on the calculated evaporation/inflow (E/I) ratios, most of the kettle holes (86.7%) were ascertained to have a partially open, flow‐through‐dominated system. Moreover, we identified an inverse correlation between E/I ratios and the altitudes of the kettle holes. The same holds for electrical conductivity (EC) and the altitudes of the kettle holes. In accordance with the findings obtained from this study, a conceptual model explaining the interaction between the shallow groundwater and the kettle holes of Uckermark was developed. The model exhibited that across the highest altitudes, the recharge kettle holes are dominant, where a lower ratio of E/I and a lower EC was detected. By contrast, the lowest topographical depressions represent the discharge kettle holes, where a higher ratio of E/I and EC could be identified. The kettle holes existing in between were categorized as flow‐through kettle holes through which the recharge takes place from one side and discharge from the other side.

Development of a national-scale framework to characterise transfers of N, P and Escherichia coli from land to water

ABSTRACT A hydrological framework encompassing nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and microbial (E. coli) transfer from land to water was developed to provide a consistent and rapid approach for assessing the potential impacts of land activity on water quality in New Zealand. A flow partition approach was used to route precipitation via surface and subsurface pathways from land to water. The framework included a typology-based inventory that estimates annual yields of transportable N and P from land, a regional-scale spatial layer that attenuates N in groundwater, and literature-based estimates of E. coli concentrations in surface runoff and artificial drainage. Application of the framework in four catchments highlighted the importance of local catchment knowledge of dominant hydrological processes that was needed to ensure flow partitions derived were a realistic representation of transport processes. While the approach was promising, additional refinements are needed to improve process representation (e.g. effects of groundwater lags) and ensure input data (e.g. soil attributes) have appropriate resolution to describe hydrological pathways. We contend that such a framework would provide a consistent and relatively rapid approach for identifying contaminant transfer pathways from land to water that can inform assessments of the potential consequences of land use change and intensification.

Lateral mobilization of soil carbon induced by runoff along karstic slopes

Soil erosion induced by runoff is a main hydrological pathway for lateral transport of carbon in terrestrial landscapes. More information about how water erosion influences the carbon gains and losses at different erosional and depositional landform positions is critical, especially in fragile agroecosystems with a variety of land uses and ephemeral hydrological and sedimentological pulses, typical of Mediterranean environments. The purpose of this study is to characterize the lateral mobilization of soil organic and inorganic carbon (SOC and SIC) along topographically driven transects over a period of four decades in a sub-humid karstic area in northern Spain. The 137Cs inventories and the characterization of terrain attributes of the study area were used to identify whether erosional or depositional processes have been predominant in the 58 sampling sites. Average soil losses and gains varied between −4 and +4 mm ha−1 yr−1, and the carbon patterns obtained are discussed in the context of the dominant hydrological processes in the study area. Results indicate that SOC and SIC losses were related to an increase in water flow accumulation, while the highest SOC gains were recorded at concave positions. Soil erosion processes and the content of SOC and SIC in soils are the two main factors controlling carbon budgets. The topographical and geomorphological characteristics of the transects, the spatial distribution of land uses and the presence of landscape linear elements such as terraces or paths, affect runoff and determine the sediment connectivity and carbon dynamics along the slopes. The combined use of 137Cs and the perceptual model provides reliable SDR estimates benefiting the appraisals of the redistribution of eroded carbon. The knowledge of processes involved in the lateral carbon movement induced by runoff along karstic hillslopes provides a better understanding of the role of soil erosion as carbon source or sinks in the global carbon cycle.

Scale and location dependent time stability of soil water storage in a maize cropped field

Time stability of soil water storage (SWS) is the similarity of spatial patterns of soil water storage over time and is scale and location dependent due to multivariate effects of controlling factors. However, our understanding of scale and location dependency of the time stability of SWS and its seasonally dependent controls in cropped fields is inadequate. This study examined the scale and location dependent time stability of SWS at multiple depths, over different seasons in a cropped field in western Quebec, Canada. Soil water content was measured at 0.05, 0.10 and 0.20 m depths along six transects (128 locations per transect) using the actively heated fiber optic (AHFO) technique. Wavelet coherency analysis was used to examine the scale and location dependent time stability of SWS over different seasons. Results showed strong intra-seasonal time stability across all scales, locations and depths during the dry period in the summer due to a dominant control of evapotranspiration (ET). The weak inter-seasonal time stability of SWS showed the change in the dominant processes controlling the spatial patterns of SWS in different seasons. While the intra-seasonal time stability was also strong during the wet period of autumn, correlations were not significant across all scales, locations and depths, likely due to the dominant effects of smaller to medium scale processes. The results of the study clearly showed that the dominant hydrological processes controlling the time stability of SWS at different depths during a dry period in summer were different than that of a wet period in autumn. The change in the dominant hydrological processes affected the spatial scales and the locations of the similarity of the spatial patterns of SWS in the field. Therefore, the analysis outcome can be used to identify the change in the sampling domain as controlled by the hydrological processes operating at different scales and locations delivering the maximum information with minimum sampling effort.

Probabilistic flood prediction for urban sub-catchments using sewer models combined with logistic regression models

ABSTRACTThis paper proposes a hybrid modelling approach for early urban flood warning and forecasting purpose. The hybrid model structure proposed combines a deterministic sewer model with a probabilistic logistic regression model. By varying the sewer model structures from complex hydrodynamic models to simple conceptual models, different hybrid models are constructed in order to accommodate different levels of available knowledge and data about the urban hydrological system. The hybrid models are optimized using crowdsourced flooding records. They can predict the probability of flooding at the urban sub-catchment scale. The proposed methodology is tested for two cases in Antwerp, Belgium. Promising results show its potential in making fast and reliable urban flood predictions. Reasonable predictions are made even by the simplest model form, indicating the method could work also for sub-catchments with limited information. It also shows that the proposed methodology allows identifying the most dominant hydrological processes explaining urban flooding.

Assessing effects of model complexity and structure on predictions of hydrological responses using serial and parallel model design

AbstractBy utilizing functional relationships based on observations at plot or field scales, water quality models first compute surface runoff and then use it as the primary governing variable to estimate sediment and nutrient transport. When these models are applied at watershed scales, this serial model structure, coupling a surface runoff sub‐model with a water quality sub‐model, may be inappropriate because dominant hydrological processes differ among scales. A parallel modeling approach is proposed to evaluate how best to combine dominant hydrological processes for predicting water quality at watershed scales. In the parallel scheme, dominant variables of water quality models are identified based entirely on their statistical significance using time series analysis. Four surface runoff models of different model complexity were assessed using both the serial and parallel approaches to quantify the uncertainty on forcing variables used to predict water quality. The eight alternative model structures were tested against a 25‐year high‐resolution data set of streamflow, suspended sediment discharge, and phosphorous discharge at weekly time steps. Models using the parallel approach consistently performed better than serial‐based models, by having less error in predictions of watershed scale streamflow, sediment and phosphorus, which suggests model structures of water quantity and quality models at watershed scales should be reformulated by incorporating the dominant variables. The implication is that hydrological models should be constructed in a way that avoids stacking one sub‐model with one set of scale assumptions onto the front end of another sub‐model with a different set of scale assumptions.

Implementation of the TOPKAPI model in South Africa: Initial results from the Liebenbergsvlei catchment

Flash floods and droughts are of major concern in Southern Africa. Hydrologists and engineers have to assist decision makers to address the issue of forecasting and monitoring extreme events. For these purposes, hydrological models are useful tools to: Identify the dominant hydrological processes which influence the water balance and result in conditions of extreme water excess and / or deficit Assist in generating both short- and long-term hydrological forecasts for use by water resource managers. In this study the physically-based and fully distributed hydrological TOPKAPI model (Liu and Todini, 2002), which has already been successfully applied in several countries in the world (Liu and Todini, 2002; Bartholomes and Todini, 2005; Liu et al., 2005; Martina et al., 2006), is applied in Africa for the first time. This paper contains the main theoretical and numerical components that have been integrated by the authors to model code and presents details of the application of the model in the Liebenbergsvlei catchment (4 625 km2) in South Africa. The physical basis of the equations, the fine-scale representation of the spatial catchment features, the parsimonious parameterisation linked to field / catchment information, the good computation time performance, the modularity of the processes, the ease of use and finally the good results obtained in modelling the river discharges of Liebenbergsvlei catchment, make the TOPKAPI model a promising tool for hydrological modelling of catchments in South Africa.

Hydrological control of dissolved organic carbon dynamics in a rehabilitated <i>Sphagnum</i>-dominated peatland: a water-table based modelling approach

Abstract. Hydrological disturbances could increase dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exports through changes in runoff and leaching, which reduces the potential carbon sink function of peatlands. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of hydrological restoration on hydrological processes and DOC dynamics in a rehabilitated Sphagnum-dominated peatland. A conceptual hydrological model calibrated on the water table and coupled with a biogeochemical module was applied to La Guette peatland (France), which experienced a rewetting initiative on February 2014. The model (eight calibrated parameters) reproduced water-table (0.1<NS<0.61) and pore-water DOC concentrations (2<RMSE<11 mg L−1) in a time series (1 April 2014 to 15 December 2017) in two contrasting locations (rewetted and control) in the peatland. Hydrological restoration was found to impact the water balance through a decrease in slow deep drainage and an increase in fast superficial runoff. Observed DOC concentrations were higher in summer in the rewetted location compared to the control area and were linked to a difference in dissolved organic matter composition analyzed by fluorescence. Hydrological conditions, especially the severity of the water-table drawdown in summer, were identified as the major factor controlling DOC-concentration dynamics. The results of the simulation suggest that the hydrological restoration did not affect DOC loads, at least in a short-term period (3 years). However, it impacted the temporal dynamics of DOC exports, which were the most episodic and were mainly transported through fast surface runoff in the area affected by the restoration, while slow deep drainage dominated DOC exports in the control area. In relation to dominant hydrological processes, exported DOC is expected to be derived from more recent organic matter in the top peat layer in the rewetted area, compared to the control area. Since it is calibrated on water-table and DOC concentration, the model presented in this study proved to be a relevant tool in identifying the main hydrological processes and factors controlling DOC dynamics in different areas of the same peatland. It is also a suitable alternative to a discharge-calibrated catchment model when the outlet is not easy to identify or to monitor.

High-resolution modelling of the grass swale response to runoff inflows with Mike SHE

The feasibility of simulating the hydrological response of a grass swale to runoff inflows was examined using the hydrological model Mike SHE and the available input data from 12 irrigation events mimicking runoff from block rainfalls. The test swale channel had a trapezoidal cross-section, bottom slope of 1.5%, length of 30 m, and was built in loamy fine sand. The irrigation events consisted in releasing two equal constant inflows to the swale: a concentrated longitudinal flow at the upstream end and a distributed lateral inflow along the swale side slope adjacent to the contributing drainage area. The total inflows approximated runoff from two events with return periods of 2 months and 3 years, respectively, for durations of 30 min. Irrigation experiments were done for two states of the initial soil moisture, dry or wet antecedent moisture conditions (AMC). Mike SHE has been extensively used on catchments of various sizes, but rarely for small stormwater management facilities and their detailed topography investigated in this study. The latter application required high spatial and temporal resolutions, with computational cells of 0.2 × 0.2 m and time steps as short as 0.6 s to avoid computational instabilities. For dominant hydrological processes, the following computational options in Mike SHE were chosen: Soil infiltration – the van Genuchten equation, unsaturated zone flow – the one-dimensional Richards equation, and overland flow – the diffusive wave approximation of the St. Venant equations. For study purposes, the model was calibrated for single events representing one of four combinations of low and high inflows, and dry and wet AMC, and then applied to the remaining 11 events. This was complemented by calibration for two events, representing high inflow on wet AMC and low inflow in dry AMC. The goodness of fit was statistically assessed for observed and simulated peak flows, hydrograph volumes, Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies (NSE), and soil water content (SWC) in swale soil layers. The best fit (NSE > 0.8) was obtained for high inflows and wet AMC (i.e., when the primary swale function is flow conveyance); the least fit was noted for low inflows and dry AMC, when the primary swale function is flow attenuation. Furthermore, this observation indicates the overall importance of correct modelling of the soil infiltration. The effects of spatial variation of SWC on the swale discharge hydrograph could not be confirmed from simulation results, but high topographical accuracy was beneficial for reproducing well the locations of the observed water ponding. No significant increases in simulated SWC at 0.3 m or greater depths were noted, which agreed with field observations. Overall, the results indicated that Mike SHE was effective in process-oriented small-scale modelling of grass swale flow hydrographs.

Corroborating stable isotopic data with pumping test data to investigate recharge and groundwater flow processes in a fractured rock aquifer, Rivirivi Catchment, Malawi

Fractured rock aquifers continue to support millions of people in arid and semiarid regions. However, due to heterogeneous nature of their hydrogeology and comparative low yields, research in these formations is regarded expensive, and thus, very little is known about their dominant hydrological processes. In this study, we corroboratively used pumping test and stable isotopic data to understand groundwater recharge and flow processes in fractured hornblende-biotite-gneiss. It was established that rain is the main source of groundwater recharge. The groundwater system seems to retain the stable isotopic signatures of precipitation which has undergone evaporation before infiltration. Geochemical data also show that the groundwater system has not undergone pronounced geochemical evolution as evidenced by low total dissolved solids in both seasons. A combination of stable isotopic data and derivative plots of drawdown data helped identification of apparent recharge zones, no-flow boundaries and dominant flow types in the pumped wells with bilinear flow being the dominant type of flow in BP1 and BP2, while linear flow was dominant in BP3 and BP4. Geochemical, stable isotopic and hydraulic data further revealed hydraulic connection between two wells juxtaposed across Ntcheu Fault, indicating potential for groundwater flow across the fault and highlighting that the fault may be acting as a groundwater conduit across it. The established phenomena are important when considering groundwater development and sustainable management of the resource.

Stable isotopic composition reveals the spatial and temporal dynamics of discharge in the large river of Yarlungzangbo in the Tibetan Plateau

Spatial and temporal variability in stable isotopic compositions (δ18O and δD) in river water of the Yarlungzangbo was investigated to identify major hydrological processes along the river channel and evaluate the isotopic response to discharge variation. The results show geographic, distinct isotopic evolutions in the Yarlungzangbo system. Along the main stem, river δ18O exhibits a decreasing trend from the headwaters to the middle reach but an increasing one from the middle to the lower reaches, and main flows demonstrate much greater δ18O-δD slope and intercept compared to the global meteoric water line (GMWL) and reported local meteoric water lines (LMWLs) for sites within the basin. These results are found to be consistent with the isotopic characteristics of stream and river waters collected across the entire drainage basin. Water mixing appears to be the dominant hydrological process along the Yarlungzangbo, and the pattern of isotopic change in individual river reaches closely reflects that of precipitation in corresponding part of the river basin. The isotopic variability along the main stem observed during the synoptic survey is evidenced to hold through time by a time-series investigation at three key hydrological stations. River water at such three stations shows a strong isotopic response to discharge variability. In general, river δ18O tends to be negatively correlated with discharge, highlighting a typical monsoon precipitation-driven isotope-discharge pattern. Specifically, we found their individual discharge-weighted average δ18O values likely vary in a similar rate with the ratio of mean discharge in monsoon season (JAS) to that in pre-monsoon season (MJ) on a yearly basis, indicating a specific relationship between average river isotopic composition and discharge seasonality throughout their drainage areas (i.e. the middle-lower Yarlungzangbo basin). This study thus demonstrates the usefulness of isotopic data for assessing hydrodynamics over a less explored, complex and high-altitude large river catchment.

Evaluation of Conceptual Hydrological Models in Data Scarce Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin: Case of the Upper Guder Catchment

The prediction of dominant hydrological processes is imperative with the available information in data scarce regions by means of the lumped hydrological models for the purpose of water resource management. This study is aims at an intercomparison of the performances of the conceptual hydrological models in predicting streamflow. The Veralgemeend Conceptueel Hydrologisch (VHM) and NedborAfstromnings Model (NAM) lumped rainfall–runoff models were manually calibrated and validated for periods of 1 January 1990–31 December 2000 and 1 January 2001–31 December 2005, respectively. Some of the parameters of the models (i.e., recession constants of subflow components) were estimated from the preprocessing of the streamflow data using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). These parameters were used for the initial model setup and subjected to slight adjustments during calibration. The performances of the models were evaluated by graphical and statistical means. The results depicted that the models reproduced the streamflow in a good way and that the overall shape of the hydrograph was properly captured. A Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.71 and 0.67 were obtained during calibration, whereas, for the validation period, NSE of 0.6 and 0.58 were obtained for VHM and NAM, respectively. The water balance discrepancy (WBD) of −0.1% and −13.7% were achieved for calibration, while −17% and −9% were acquired during validation for VHM and NAM, respectively. Though the models underestimated the high flows, the low flows were relatively well simulated. From the overall evaluation of the models, it is noted that the NAM model performed better than the VHM model in predicting the flow. In conclusion, the models can be used for water resource management and planning with precautions for extreme flow.

Estimating hydrologic model uncertainty in the presence of complex residual error structures

Hydrologic models provide a comprehensive tool to estimate streamflow response to environmental variables. Yet, an incomplete understanding of physical processes and challenges associated with scaling processes to a river basin, introduces model uncertainty. Here, we apply generalized additive models of location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) to characterize this uncertainty in an Atlantic coastal plain watershed system. Specifically, we describe distributions of residual errors in a two-step procedure that includes model calibration of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) using a sequential Bayesian uncertainty algorithm, followed by time-series modeling of residual errors of simulated daily streamflow. SWAT identified dominant hydrological processes, performed best during moderately wet years, and exhibited less skill during times of extreme flow. Application of GAMLSS to model residuals efficiently produced a description of the error distribution parameters (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis), differentiating between upstream and downstream outlets of the watershed. Residual error distribution is better described by a non-parametric polynomial loess curve with a smooth transition from a Box–Cox t distribution upstream to a skew t type 3 distribution downstream. Overall, the fitted models show that low flow events more strongly influence the residual probability distribution, and error variance increases with streamflow discharge, indicating correlation and heteroscedasticity of residual errors. These results provide useful insights into the complexity of error behavior and highlight the value of using GAMLSS models to conduct Bayesian inference in the context of a regression model with unknown skewness and/or kurtosis.

Basin hydrogeological characterization using remote sensing, hydrogeochemical and isotope methods (the case of Baro-Akobo, Eastern Nile, Ethiopia)

Hydrogeochemical and isotopic signatures of the waters of the Baro-Akobo River Basin show deviation from signatures in other Ethiopian river basins. In this study, hydrogeochemical and isotope methods were employed to determine regional and local hydrogeology and characteristics of the basin. Optical, thermal and radar remote sensing products were used to update geological and structural maps of the basin and determine sampling points using the judgment sampling method. A total of 363 samples from wells, springs, rivers, lakes, swamps and rain were collected for this study, and an additional 270 water quality data sets were added from previous studies. These data were analyzed for their hydrogeochemical characteristics and isotope signatures. Analysis of the oxygen, deuterium and tritium isotopes shows the groundwater of the basin is modern water. Among all basins in Ethiopia, the Baro-Akobo Basin shows the highest enrichment. This indicates the proximity of the rainfall sources, which presumably are the Sudd and other wetlands in South Sudan. The hydrochemical properties of the waters show evapotranspiration is the dominant hydrologic process in the basin and explains the large amount of water that is lost in the lowland plain. Analysis of radon-222 shows no significant groundwater flux over the wetlands, which are part of Machar Marshes. This shows evaporation to be dominant hydrologic process in this zone. Results from all analyses help explain the limited holding capacity of the aquifers in the recharge zone and their vulnerability to anthropogenic impacts and climate variability. There is a trend of decreasing surface flow and rainfall and increasing water soil erosion.

The importance of aspect for modelling the hydrological response in a glacier catchment in Central Asia

AbstractUnderstanding how explicit consideration of topographic information influences hydrological model performance and upscaling in glacier dominated catchments remains underexplored. In this study, the Urumqi glacier no. 1 catchment in northwest China, with 52% of the area covered by glaciers, was selected as study site. A conceptual glacier‐hydrological model was developed and tested to systematically, simultaneously, and robustly reproduce the hydrograph, separate the discharge into contributions from glacier and nonglacier parts of the catchment, and establish estimates of the annual glacier mass balance, the annual equilibrium line altitude, and the daily catchment snow water equivalent. This was done by extending and adapting a recently proposed landscape‐based semidistributed conceptual hydrological model (FLEX‐Topo) to represent glacier and snowmelt processes. The adapted model, FLEXG, allows to explicitly account for the influence of topography, that is, elevation and aspect, on the distribution of temperature and precipitation and thus on melt dynamics. It is shown that the model can not only reproduce long‐term runoff observations but also variations in glacier and snow cover. Furthermore, FLEXG was successfully transferred and up‐scaled to a larger catchment exclusively by adjusting the areal proportions of elevation and aspect without the need for further calibration. This underlines the value of topographic information to meaningfully represent the dominant hydrological processes in the region and is further exacerbated by comparing the model to a model formulation that does not account for differences in aspect (FLEXG,nA) and which, in spite of satisfactorily reproducing the observed hydrograph, does not capture the influence of spatial variability of snow and ice, which as a consequence reduces model transferability. This highlights the importance of accounting for topography and landscape heterogeneity in conceptual hydrological models in mountainous and snow‐, and glacier‐dominated regions.

Sensitivity of Calibrated Parameters and Water Resource Estimates on Different Objective Functions and Optimization Algorithms

The successful application of hydrological models relies on careful calibration and uncertainty analysis. However, there are many different calibration/uncertainty analysis algorithms, and each could be run with different objective functions. In this paper, we highlight the fact that each combination of optimization algorithm-objective functions may lead to a different set of optimum parameters, while having the same performance; this makes the interpretation of dominant hydrological processes in a watershed highly uncertain. We used three different optimization algorithms (SUFI-2, GLUE, and PSO), and eight different objective functions (R2, bR2, NSE, MNS, RSR, SSQR, KGE, and PBIAS) in a SWAT model to calibrate the monthly discharges in two watersheds in Iran. The results show that all three algorithms, using the same objective function, produced acceptable calibration results; however, with significantly different parameter ranges. Similarly, an algorithm using different objective functions also produced acceptable calibration results, but with different parameter ranges. The different calibrated parameter ranges consequently resulted in significantly different water resource estimates. Hence, the parameters and the outputs that they produce in a calibrated model are “conditioned” on the choices of the optimization algorithm and objective function. This adds another level of non-negligible uncertainty to watershed models, calling for more attention and investigation in this area.