Domestic Rice Prices Research Articles

Analisis Determinan Volume Impor Gandum di Indonesia

Wheat is one of the food commodities consumed by the Indonesian people. The need for wheat in Indonesia from year to year tends to increase but is almost entirely met through imports and makes Indonesia one of the world's largest wheat importers. Dependence on food commodities from the import side has a huge risk for national food security because in addition to the increasingly limited foreign exchange owned, there is also uncertainty in terms of quantity and price. The purpose of this study is to find out the factors that affect wheat imports in Indonesia. The variables in this study are foreign exchange reserves, international wheat prices, domestic rice prices, and the US dollar exchange rate. This study uses secondary data with a quantitative approach using 34 data. Data analysis techniques using descriptive statistical analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study show 1) Foreign Exchange Reserves, International Wheat Prices, Domestic Rice Prices, and the US Dollar Exchange Rate simultaneously have a positive and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 2) Foreign Exchange Reserves partially have a positive and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 3) International Wheat Prices partially have a negative and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 4) Domestic Rice Prices and the US Dollar Exchange Rate have no significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia.

Analysis of Rice Trade and Food Security in Southeast Asian Countries

The rice trade serves to maintain sufficient rice stocks to meet domestic country demands. The world’s main rice exporters and importers are located in the Southeast Asia region, so the volume change of traded rice can affect the flow of trade. Given the strategic importance of rice, numerous nations have stepped in to control the domestic rice market, to ensure political stability as well as food security. This article aims to examine how the rice trade has evolved in Southeast Asia with respect to food security. The study aims are addressed by the application of the descriptive analysis method. The findings indicate that from 110.5 million tones in 2010–2011 to 128.3 million tones in 2021–2022, Southeast Asian countries accounted for 1.22% of global rice imports, >22% of the world’s total rice consumption. In the meantime, the annual growth rate of rice exports was 3.3%. Over the past 10 years, ASEAN’s net rice exports have made up 53.3% of the world’s total and are expected to reach about 54.8%. Southeast Asian countries intervene in the rice market through international trade policies, both in the form of export bans and domestic rice price stabilization policies, to maintain rice stocks to strengthen the level of food security. Southeast Asia’s economic integration through the ASEAN Economy Community is an important moment to become the basis for achieving food security at the regional levels while at the same time making the rice market more open among Southeast Asian countries. Keywords: rice, trade, policy, Southeast Asia

Analysis of factors affecting organic rice exports in Indonesia

The market opportunities from organic farming which are getting bigger globally are being utilized by farmers in various regions in Indonesia and have succeeded in cultivating organic rice and have quite wide market coverage even abroad. This research aims to determine the factors that influence the volume of organic rice exports in Indonesia. The results of multiple linear regression prove that the domestic price of organic rice, the international price of organic rice and the dollar exchange rate against the rupiah influence the volume of organic rice exports in Indonesia. The price of organic rice, both domestic and international, has a negative effect on organic rice exports. Meanwhile, the dollar exchange rate against the rupiah has a positive effect on organic rice exports. The policy implications based on the research results are (a) Seeing the research results showing that the price of domestic organic rice has a negative and significant effect on organic rice exports, the government must maintain prices (inflation), especially the price of domestic organic rice. (b) When the rupiah depreciates, organic rice exports will increase, but exchange rate stability must be maintained by the government. So the increase in organic rice exports is the result of increased rice production, not just the exchange rate.

A simulation of increasing rice price toward the disparity of income distribution: An evidence from Indonesia

PurposeConsidering the significance of rice as a staple food in Indonesia, this study aims to analyze the impact of various factors, i.e., domestic price production level, exchange rate, international rice price, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, on domestic rice prices and the resultant disparity in income distribution and inequality in the country. MethodsA simulation analysis has been performed to assess the impact of the above-mentioned factors on rice prices and the resultant income disparity in Indonesia. For that, input data from 2006 to 2020 was used to depict the change in domestic rice prices from 2021 to 2026 due to independent variables changes. FindingsResults revealed that a regular increase in rice production decreases rice prices in the longer term. Besides, a rise in the exchange rate decreases rice prices, and a fall in the exchange rate results in higher rice prices. Results also showed the insignificant impact of international rice prices on domestic rice prices in Indonesia. In contrast, an increase in per capita income reflected an increase in rice prices. Moreover, the result of the study exemplifies that the expenditure for rice has a very low elasticity (0.0975) compared to the expenditure on non-rice food (0.4096). More than half of the total household expenditure (50.71%) is spent on food, while the rest (49.29%) is used for non-food. The increase in rice prices affects the rise of income amongst farmers and declines the income of non-farmers. Hence it affects the decline of disparity in households' income distribution. Originality/valueThis study adds value to the existing literature with several implications for practitioners, policymakers, and government organizations to take necessary measures to stabilize rice prices and income distribution among the various income groups.

Pengaruh Produksi Beras, Harga Beras, dan lam Negeri Terhadap Impor Beras di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

This study aims to determine the effect of Rice Production, Rice Consumption, Domestic Rice Prices, Foreign Rice Prices, Exchange Rates and Rice Stocks either partially or simultaneously on Rice Imports in Indonesia. The data are sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). The results of the partial significance test show that the rice production variable has an insignificant negative effect on the variable amount of rice imports. The price of rice has an insignificant negative effect on the variable amount of rice imports, the price effect on rice imports is not significant because rice is a staple item that people want or not to continue to consume, the variable rice consumption has a positive and insignificant effect on the variable amount of rice imports. Simultaneous significance test is known that rice production, rice price and rice consumption variables simultaneously have no significant effect on the variable amount of rice imports because the probability value is value. It is necessary to understand that North Sumatra has many rice granaries, although North Sumatra has to import rice, this is only temporary, for example before religious celebrations or when some rice granaries experience crop failure. The results of the determination test showed that variations in rice production variables, rice prices and rice consumption had an effect of 30.4% and the remaining 69.6% were influenced by other variables that were not examined, such as climate change which made North Sumatra fail to harvest and lack of rice stocks, increased demand. North Sumatran rice on religious holidays such as Eid and New Year, the rupiah exchange rate against foreign currencies, population, North Sumatra's per capita income, and others.

The dynamic effects of price support policy on price volatility: The case of the rice market in China

AbstractThis study examines the economic and welfare effects of a commodity price support policy. It conceptually and empirically evaluates the effects of the domestic pricing policy on the distribution of commodity prices, with an application to the price support program in the Chinese rice market. The empirical analysis relies on a Censored Quantile Autoregression (CQAR) model, which provides a refined and flexible representation of the evolving distribution of prices under a price support program. Based on monthly data over the period 2000–2018, we develop and estimate an econometric model documenting the price effects of policy interventions. We study how a price support program affects price distribution both in the short term and long term. We find that such a program has reduced the domestic rice price volatility, evidenced by lowered variation and increased right‐skewness of the price distribution. We also show how China's rice programs' high price support level during the period 2008–2015 caused significant censoring effects and price enhancement with adverse impacts on consumer welfare across all income levels. We further examine alternative situations where a moderate price support level can reduce the long‐term mean price without generating consumer welfare losses. Our analysis and findings have implications for the implementation of agricultural price support policies in many developing countries.

Food price volatility and household food security: Evidence from Nigeria

Food prices vary seasonally, particularly in areas with rainfed agricultural production and imperfect markets, and are also subject to volatility arising from macroeconomic and climatic shocks, such as global supply shocks and abrupt policy changes. The specific nature of these relationships remains a pressing empirical question, particularly in contexts where food insecurity is prevalent, prices are subject to diverse sources of variation, and governments are seeking policy options to reduce price volatility. We use panel data from Nigeria to investigate the effects of non-seasonal food price volatility, in particular unexpected increases in prices, on household food security. Accounting for substitution effects and focusing on both domestic and imported rice—key components of the Nigerian diet—we find that imported rice price increases are damaging to both dietary diversity (downward impact) and the food share of consumption expenditure (upward impact), while impacts of domestic rice price volatility are ambiguous. We find differential effects by wealth status that vary across indicators of food security: an increase in the price of imported rice increases food share more among poor households than rich households, and decreases dietary diversity more among rich households than poor households. Our findings point toward the importance of improving food security by mitigating the effects of global shocks on imported food prices, and also highlight the data challenges and complexity involved in developing precise answers to these important policy questions.

The implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on rice market performance in Java, Indonesia

Applying the multivariate cointegration tests with daily prices during the period August 15, 2019, to August 11, 2020 (250 data), this paper examines whether prices in the rice deficit market (Jakarta) are co-integrated with prices in surplus markets (Semarang and Surabaya). Research data is the average daily price in traditional markets in Jakarta, Semarang, and Surabaya. The main focus is on the effect of implementing various programs and policies relating to controlling the spread of COVID-19 to the integration of the rice market in Java. On March 02, 2020, the first two COVID-19 cases in Indonesia were confirmed as a dummy variable that we use regarding controlling borders between regions and restricting the movement of goods. The cointegration tests find that the domestic rice prices of Jakarta - Semarang and Jakarta - Surabaya are integrated both in short-run and long-run periods. In the short term, programs and policies relating to controlling the spread of COVID-19 do not affect the integration of Java’s rice market. One reason is that during the pandemic, the rice supply chain’s performance was still protected by the government to maintain the stability of rice supply for the citizens.

Price Competitiveness and Supply Response of Rice Producers in Nigeria: Implications for Agricultural Trade

This study examined the price competitiveness and supply response of rice producers in Nigeria and its implication for agricultural trade. Specifically, it examined the trade balance for rice; examined price volatility; estimated supply response coefficients and the determinants of supply response of rice producers in Nigeria. Data were collected from secondary sources and covered the period 1972 to 2017. Data analyses were achieved using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results indicated a negative trade balance (x = - N20/kg) between imported rice and domestic rice. Price volatility result showed that volatility in agricultural markets was high, with that of imported rice being higher than domestic rice, then maize. Supply response coefficients for rice indicated that production output, price of maize and annual rainfall statistically and significantly influenced supply of rice while domestic price of local rice, price of imported rice and government expenditure on agriculture were not significant. All the series were stationary in the first difference and there was linear combination or long-run equilibrium relationship among the co-integrated variables. There were price adjustments between short-run to long-run equilibrium and the error correction coefficient was -0.209. Further results showed that the price and probably favoured quality of imported rice constrained domestic production and negatively impacted rice exports from Nigeria. This indicates a potentially significant impediment to the expansion of rice production in Nigeria. Government must put in place guaranteed minimum price for rice, and be ready to act as buyer of last resort, as incentives for the farmers, to sustainably increase production and the country to attain self-sufficiency in the short-run. Government and non-governmental institutions should provide improved production inputs and modern processing facilities to enhance the competitiveness of local rice against imported rice, both in terms of quality and price.

The Impact of Oil Price Shock on Rice Prices in Asean Area: A Framework

The conditions of the world rice market and the domestic rice market are unstable markets and are heavily influenced by external factors. There are many factors that can affect the price of unhulled rice and rice at the farm level, one of which is the effect of the integration of world and domestic rice markets. Thus the events or shocks that occur on the world market will affect the conditions of the domestic rice market. External factors affecting rice trade include petroleum. Oil as one of the factors influencing changes in the demand and supply of various traded commodities because of its vital role. Oil price fluctuations are often used as a benchmark for the stability of world trade conditions.Research specifically on the impact of rice was carried out by Chintia (2013) which states that oil price shocks cause domestic rice prices to have a fluctuating pattern and have an increasing trend, but domestic rice prices always fluctuate on trend. An attractive characteristic of the domestic rice price is that it is always above the world rice price. This occurs because rice is a commodity that has many interventions by the government in maintaining domestic rice price stability and maintaining the purchasing power of the public as consumers and farmers as producers. In the short term, the domestic rice price is influenced by the domestic rice price itself, the imported rice price, and the world crude oil price. In the long run, the domestic rice price is influenced by world rice prices, imported rice prices, and rice production. This paper will discuss the framework for the impact of oil shocks on rice prices in the ASEAN region. This framework is the basis for the stages in conducting further research Keywords: Impact, Rice, oll price, Rice, ASEAN

The THE COMPARISON OF THE CUSTOMS DUTY AND RICE PRODUCTIVITY IN ASEAN

The purpose of this paper is to examine the customs duty to support rice productivity in the ASEAN Member States (AMS). This study uses a qualitative method. The results showed that the customs duty had supported rice productivity in AMS. The rice productivity in AMS has been improved supported by the competitiveness of domestic rice products and and supports the welfare of rice producers. Custom duties or imposition of rice tariffs protect the competitiveness of domestic rice, and maintain domestic rice price stability and encourage producer surpluses. Producer surpluses support motivation in rice farming, and support consistent increases in rice production. AMS that imposes tariffs on rice, namely: Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The imposition of customs duties in ASEAN is based on ad valorem tariffs. AMS that imposes relatively high tariffs on rice are Malaysia and the Philippines.

Analisis impor beras Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the development of each variable and its effect on rice imports in Indonesia for the period 1998-2017. This research uses descriptive and quantitative analysis tools. The data used is time-series data or time series. To analyze this research, the "Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method was used. The results showed that the independent variables simultaneously had a significant effect on rice imports in Indonesia. Partially, the domestic rice price variable has a positive and significant effect on rice imports in Indonesia, the exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on rice imports in Indonesia and the GDP variable has a negative and significant effect on rice imports in Indonesia. Keywords: Rice imports, Exchange rate, The price of rice

ANALISIS KETERSEDIAAN BERAS DI JAWA TIMUR

The problem that occurs is their surplus rice production in East Java, but the government still import rice. This research aims : to analyze the influential factor the rice harvested area, rice production, the volume of rice imports, consumptions, the population, the domestic prices of rice and sugar affecting the availability of rice in East Java. The methods used in this research is the multiple linear regression models . The results of the research showed the overall factor has an influence simultaneously ehile the partial factors of rice harvest area, production of rice, the volume of imported rice and the domestic price of rice has a significant positive influence. The significant negative influence derives from rice consumption rate and the domestic price of sugar, meanwhile the population has no influence at all towards the rice availability in East Java particularly in 2007-2017. DOI : https://doi.org/10.33005/adv.v8i2.1799

Analysis Relationship of Imported Rice with Rice Production, Imported and Domestic Rice Prices with VECM

Rice is the main food for most Indonesians. With much natural resources, Indonesia can naturally fulfill its own rice consumption needs. However, Indonesia actually relies on imports to meet consumption needs. Even Indonesia continues to import while rice production is volatility surplus to maintain domestic rice prices. Based on these problems, this study aims to analyze the relationship of volume of imported rice with rice production, domestic rice prices, and prices of imported rice. The method used is descriptive analysis and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). In the long-term, rice production and domestic rice prices have significant effect on Indonesia's rice import volume. In short-term, rice production and domestic rice prices have significant effect on Indonesian rice import volume. The results of the causality test show that there is a two-way relationship between Indonesian rice import volume and Indonesian production rice. Meanwhile, a one-way relationship occurs when imported rice volumes influenced by prices of domestic rice.

Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines

Faced with high domestic rice prices that have fueled inflation above the 2018 target and penalized poor consumers the most, the government of the Philippines has decided to abandon the quantitative restrictions on imports and replace them with tariffs. This paper uses a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework to assess the possible impacts of this reform on imports, production, consumption and prices. In contrast with past similar studies, we address three key concerns (i) the heterogeneity in farm price across 16 regions in response to the combined effect of the tarriffication and the average historical trend in productivity increase at 1.5% between 2001 and 2018, (ii) the differentiation of imports by origin partly due to the different tariffs applied to countries within and beyond the Association of South East Asian Nations, and (iii) the effect on domestic prices in third countries. The simulation results suggest that the reform would increase imports by 2.47 million tons (20.7%) in 2019. We also find a large decline in farm prices and retail prices respectively by PhP 6.1/kg (30.1%) and PhP 7.6/kg (17.4%) in 2019 that explains an increase in rice consumption. We estimate the fall in total inflation at 1.2% in 2019 but less over time. Further, the large fall in farm prices in 2019 is shared quite evenly among regions in the short term but returns to pre-reform levels in the near term. Using a higher price elasticity of supply for one region obtained from panel data surveys, we show a more pronounced decline in production than the national average. Such differentiated results confirm the relevance of using a regionally disaggregated model to design more targeted policies. We also show a slight increase in world prices, which led to small increases in the domestic prices of South and Southeast Asian rice markets. While this reform is largely pro-poor consumers, policy makers would need to use the additional tariff revenue to help rice growers either increase their competitiveness and modernize their rice production or shift to other crops.

IMPACT OF IMPORT TARIFF POLICIES ON RICE DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN INDONESIA

Indonesia’s economic policies cannot be separated to its rice policies since rice is the staple food for Indonesian people. The paper aims to find out the impact of rice import tariff policies on rice demand and supply in Indonesia. The research uses time series data in 1981-2018. Data obtained are analyzed using econometric model with simultaneous equation system. Estimation results show that rice supply was positively and significantly influenced by grain rice price in farmer level, amount of rice production, and rice supply of the previous year. Meantime, domestic rice demand was negatively and significantly influenced by domestic rice price and positively and significantly influenced by domestic rice demand of the previous year. The result of policy simulation indicates that scenario of policy combination through an increase in rice import tariff and government purchase price brings a sizeable impact on the increase in domestic rice production and rice demand and supply. Therefore, Indonesia needs to conduct protection to farmers in the form of rice import tariff imposition as well as government purchase price.

The Role of Storage and Trade in Food Security

Abstract This paper examines the role of storage and trade on food security with respect to milled rice in India for the period 1966–2013. Data on food balances, prices, and population obtained from FAOSTAT allow for the observation of the status quo with storage and trade. Then, using a spatial equilibrium framework, the outcomes without storage or trade are simulated. Our results are consistent with the literature with respect to welfare effects. Storage results in net welfare gains to society, although producers gain while consumers lose. Producers receive a welfare gain from net exports while consumers gain from net imports. From a food security perspective, the use of storage has provided benefits to consumers by increasing stability in the market, as seen through decreased standard deviation in both domestic rice prices and per capita availability. The results are mixed with respect to stability from trade.

The impacts of trade and self‐sufficiency policies on heterogeneous rice farms in Malaysia

AbstractThis paper develops a farm household model of heterogeneous Malaysian rice farmers. The model determines the domestic price of milled rice in equilibrium. The model is simulated to analyze the effects of free trade, self‐sufficiency achieved through trade policy, and the impact of free trade and self‐sufficiency when rice productivity expands. The ex ante results for free trade predict that total rice supply rises as the increase in imports offsets the decrease in domestic production, causing the domestic price of milled rice to fall by 15.8 percent. While this price decrease generates negative income effects for rice farmers, it leads to an expansion of consumption of milled rice by both the farm and urban populations. The results for self‐sufficiency through heightened tariffs predict that production for domestic rice farmers increases. However, with fewer imports, total rice supply falls, causing the domestic price of rice to increase by 41.5 percent. Because free trade is politically unfeasible and trade‐driven self‐sufficiency policies contract total rice consumption, boosting rice production through research and development is an effective way for Malaysia to increase the total supply of rice while limiting its dependence on imports.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI IMPOR BERAS DI INDONESIA

This study aims to 1) identify factors that affect the import of rice in Indonesia 2) analyze the influence of these factors on imports of rice in Indonesia. The data used in this research are time series data from 1994 to 2013 from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Commerce, National Logistics Agency (Bulog), and Bank Indonesia. Multiple linear regression through SPSS software version 21 was employed to analyze the data. The test results together indicated the variables of productions, consumptions, stocks of rice, domestic rice prices, international rice prices and the rupiah against the US dollar affect the imports of rice in Indonesia.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PEMBENTUKAN HARGA BERAS DI INDONESIA

The test results obtained a value of adjusted Rsquare of 90.76%. These results indicate that the formation of rice prices in Indonesia can be explained by the independent variables used in the model is the production of rice, rice consumption, the price of imported rice, and the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar by 90.76%. While the remaining 9.24% is explained by other variables outside this research model. The joined test results indicate variables of domestic rice production, domestic rice consumption, the price of imported rice, and the exchange rate against the US dollar affect the formation of prices of rice in Indonesia with a value of F (42.77) is greater than F table (3.18 ) or probability value is 0.000000 <0.05. Partial test results found that the variable domestic rice production, domestic rice consumption, and the rupiah against the US dollar respectively significantly affect the domestic rice price variables at α = 0.05, whereas the variable import prices did not significantly affect variable domestic rice prices.