Domestic Oil Demand Research Articles

RETRACTED: Impact of international trade on crude oil in political unstable economies: Evidence from quantile regression

The current study examined the relationship between crude oil and political stability. The study relied on the global crude oil network from 2000 to 2020 for 100 countries. The underlying premise is that oil dependence can lead to political instability. We distinguish between two types of oil dependence: economic dependence, which occurs when crude oil is the primary source of income, and energy dependence, which occurs when oil dominates a country's energy mix. In the second case, countries that rely on oil imports to meet domestic oil demand are much more reliant on energy sources and, as a result, are indirectly exposed to the instability of oil-exporting nations. Using a simultaneous quantile regression approach and the concepts of out-degree and in-degree centrality, the empirical results show that reliance on oil for both economic and energy needs can be dangerous to internal stability. The findings support the resource curse hypothesis for both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. The latter import political unrest alongside oil, especially when crude oil is primarily used to meet their energy needs.

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ARIMA METHOD IN FORCASTING INDONESIAN CRUDE OIL EXPORT, PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

Petroleum is one of the main sources of energy consumed by the Indonesian people. Indonesia, one of the major oil producers in the world, is currently facing the possibility of oil shortages. Petroleum-based energy sources have limited supplies if they continue to be used. The lack of alternative energy produced to replace petroleum is the reason behind the increasing use of petroleum. To meet domestic oil demand in this scenario, appropriate strategies and policies are needed. Using historical data from 1990-2022, this analysis attempts to project Indonesia's petroleum exports, production, and consumption in 2023-2027. This study uses the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average or ARIMA method with the best model for forecasting exports, production, and consumption being (1, 1, 1), (1, 1, 0), and (2, 1, 0), respectively. From the results of the study, it is predicted that oil exports and production have decreased far below oil consumption which shows an increase. This can have a negative impact on the Indonesian economy. Thus, this research can be used as a reference for future policy-making

Forecasting Oil Demand with the Development of Comprehensive Tourism

The prediction of oil demand is an important issue related to national energy security and economic development. With the COVID-19 outbreak, the international oil price fluctuates sharply, and oil consumption growth slows down. Therefore, accurate prediction of oil demand plays an important practical and theoretical role. In this paper, in accordance with the Chinese state policy stimulation of domestic demand for energy resources, we have selected 15 major factors and analyzed their influence on the domestic oil demand from the perspective of comprehensive tourism analysis. Based on the data analysis of oil consumption from 2000 to 2018, four neutral network methods are used to predict the influence of selected factors on oil consumption demand of China. The experimental results show that the best correlation is obtained between domestic tourism revenue and total tourism expenditure factors and oil demand, and the Layer Recurrent Neutral Network method has high prediction accuracy, stronger stability, and the best performance.

Are long-run income and price elasticities of oil demand time-varying? New evidence from BRICS countries

This study investigates and estimates long-run time-varying income and price elasticities of oil demand in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). A time-varying cointegration (TVC) approach allowing for the smooth changes in the parameters is employed, using quarterly data covering the period from 1990:Q1 to 2018:Q4. TVC tests confirm the variation in the long-run parameters over time for all countries by rejecting the null hypothesis of time-invariant cointegration. Moreover, results reveal that time-varying parameters of income and oil prices are inelastic for all counties’ oil markets. BRICS’s oil demand is significantly affected by the real economic activity, although the evidence on inelastic income implies oil as a necessary commodity. The sign of time-varying price elasticities implies oil as an ordinary good for Brazil, Russia, and China whereas an inferior good in some intervals for India and South Africa. The evidence on the insignificance of price elasticities in most of the analysis periods indicates that regulation of oil product prices cannot control domestic oil demand. Hence, one can infer that taxes imposed on petroleum product prices are not an effective policy instrument to reduce greenhouse emissions.

Effects of International Crude Oil Prices on Energy Consumption in China

This study aims to test the effects of changes in international crude oil prices on changes in crude oil and hydropower use from 1965 to 2016. We suggest a cointegration relationship between the consumption of coal, crude oil, and hydropower and the real crude oil price. The real price is weakly exogenous for the long-run relationship and has impacted energy consumption accordingly. The long-run crude oil price elasticity of oil use is 0.460. Our estimate suggests a positive oil price–oil use relationship in China, which is dramatically different from many previous studies but is consistent with a few past studies. The growth in external oil prices may lead to a long-run increase in hydropower use in China, with a long-run price elasticity of 0.242. The long-run crude oil price elasticity of coal use is −0.930. Hence, increased oil and hydropower use could make up the energy supply–demand gap left over by the decreased coal use. Strictly planned domestic fuel prices and rapidly growing family incomes should diminish the negative effect of external oil prices on domestic crude oil demand. In the long run, given a strictly managed energy price, the growth in external oil prices is not likely to noticeably restrain the domestic oil demand or lead to a dramatic increase in coal use. We suggest that the large-scale development and utilization of hydropower may be inappropriate. Coal utilization policies must be reviewed. The appropriate increase in clean coal consumption could reduce the consumption of crude oil and hydropower; meanwhile, carbon emissions will not increase.

Estimating the Impact of Energy Price Reform on Saudi Arabian Intergenerational Welfare using the MEGIR-SA Model

This paper investigates the intergenerational welfare impact of raising administered retail energy prices in Saudi Arabia, an example of an oil-exporting country with a fast growing population. To achieve this, we develop a dynamic model with overlapping generations (called MEGIR-SA), which we believe is the first empirical application of its type to be developed for an oil-exporting country. The model is used to analyze the effects of the increase in some Saudi administered energy prices implemented at the end of December 2015. In particular, the model analyzes how these price increases might affect the welfare of Saudis through a direct increase in energy expenditures, an indirect rise in Saudi public income stemming from a lower domestic demand for oil that fosters oil exports at a given level of domestic oil production, and a direct increase of the turnover of the energy sector. The two latter effects can be redistributed by the Saudi public authorities to private agents through higher current public spending and/or public investment. The analysis suggests that the increase in end-user energy prices results in a net overall favorable effect on the intertemporal welfare of all households. This mirrors the impact on the income of private agents of the surplus in public oil income associated with lower domestic consumption of oil products and recycled to private agents. Moreover, it is shown that the additional oil income associated with the increase in domestic energy prices tends to be relatively more beneficial to future generations if it is recycled through public investment. This is reinforced if the future price of oil remains relatively low. In a possible future situation of declining oil prices and domestic production, a policy that would help meet the Saudi Arabian objectives may consist of gradually increasing the fraction of the additional oil income that is recycled through public capital spending.

SELECTION OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES INDONESIAN WARSHIP PATROL CRAFT 36 CLASS USING LIFE CYCLE COST (LCC) AND TOPSIS (TECHNIQUE FOR ORDER PREFERENCE BY SIMILARITY TO IDEAL SOLUTION)

ABSTRACT
 Indonesia has abundant natural resources of oil and gas energy. Domestic fuel supply is not entirely fulfilled by domestic oil refineries, almost 20% -30% of domestic oil demand must be imported from abroad. This has an impact on the Navy. Steps to address this problem through switching to the use of alternative energy fuels for the Indonesian warship class Patrol Craft 36. The selection of appropriate alternatives requires analysis of information and identification of alternative fuel requirements to be selected. The approach in this study uses Life Cycle Cost method to see the life cycle cost of alternative and combined TOPSIS (Technique For Order Preference By Similarity To Ideal Solution) approach to other than cost factor, and Benefit Cost Ratio. The result of data processing of alternative energy sources selected is gas, CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) with the value of Benefit Cost Ratio 53,7051 Life Cycle Cost IDR 14,168,302,864.
 Keywords: Alternative Energy, Life Cycle Cost, TOPSIS.

Beyond 12.5: The implications of an increase in Saudi crude oil production capacity

A combination of factors is encouraging Saudi Arabia to consider raising crude oil production capacity beyond the current ceiling of 12.5 million barrels per day. The kingdom has managed to maintain a constant share of global crude oil markets, even as it copes with growing domestic demand for oil and a spate of investments in refineries, inside and outside the kingdom. Longer term, the threat of peak global oil demand – perhaps in response to climate change – enhances the attractions of a shorter time horizon to depletion. However, an increase in Saudi crude oil production would have consequences for markets and competing forms of energy, as well as for the kingdom's geopolitical stature. The wide range of potential outcomes suggests that a major capacity increase is a risky strategy.

THE PRESSURES OF THE BRAZILIAN PRE-SALT PRODUCTION ON THE NATIONAL REFINING SECTOR

The objective of this article is to analyze the current production capacity of the Brazilian refining sector and evaluate how much it should be increased in order to process the oil from the pre-salt layer. The purpose is to verify if the domestic demand for oil will be met and, therefore, whether refined products imports will decrease. The variables considered were refining capacity, refined volume, utilization factor of national refineries, production profile and domestic demand for petroleum products. We conclude that oil production will exceed domestic consumption. However, the refined volume is short of demand, even considering the conclusion of Petrobras investments. To achieve self-sufficiency in refined products by 2030, two refineries would be necessary with an installed capacity of 350 thousand barrels of oil per day each.

If Current Trends Continue, Saudi Arabia Could Become an Oil Importer by 2025

The flame of oil is not eternal. The horizon carries all signs of peak oil. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude oil producer and exporter risks becoming an oil importer probably by 2025 if current economic, demographic and security trends continue into the future. Saudi oil production peaked in 2005 and has been in steady decline since then with domestic oil demand rising at an alarming rate and accounting for 37% of crude production in 2012. As a result, Saudi crude exports have already declined by 32% between 2005 and 2012 and are projected to decline further by 9% by 2015. Population growth and robust economic development and also fuel subsidies drive that demand. By 2025 Saudi oil consumption is projected to exceed production by 610,000 barrels a day (b/d) and Saudi Arabia would have ceased, to all intents and purposes, to remain a net oil exporter. This paper will argue forcefully that even a drastic cut, if not elimination, of subsidies altogether and a determined shift from oil use in power generation and desalination to nuclear and renewable energy sources starting immediately will not delay the inevitable day when Saudi Arabia will become a net oil importer. The paper will also assess the implications of this eventuality for the global economy, energy security and the price of oil.

Saudi Oil Production Peak: Impact on the Oil Price & Global Oil Security

With the global economy heading towards a severe oil crunch probably by 2015 or thereabouts, an analysis of Saudi oil fundamentals is causing the world disquiet and worry bordering on panic. Oil-importing nations have long treated Saudi Arabia as an infinitely deep well of crude oil supplies. What much of this discussion ignores, however, is that Saudi oil production peaked in 2005 and has been in steady decline since then with domestic oil demand rising at an alarming rate and accounting for 33% of crude production in 2010. As a result, Saudi crude exports have already declined by 28% between 2005 and 2010 and are projected to decline further by 10% in the next 4 years. And far from having 264 billion barrels (bb), Saudi reserves are estimated at 63 bb-88 bb, based on estimated ultimate reserves of 185 bb-210 bb and a total production of 122 bb since the discovery of oil in Saudi Arabia. It now transpires that the one producer that could help mitigate the adverse impact of the impending oil crunch is not in a position to do so. As a result, the pressure on the oil price will continue unabated in coming years. This time the oil price could easily reach $150-$180/ barrel by 2015. And should serious unrest spark in Saudi Arabia, the oil price could surge to $200-300/barrel. Moving into renewables and nuclear energy for Saudi Arabia has become a necessity not a luxury.

China's oil diplomacy: is it a global security threat?

China is now the world's second largest oil consuming nation. China's external quest for oil has thus generated much attention and is believed by many to destabilise the world order. This article attempts to provide an overview of China's external initiatives for satisfying domestic oil demands and to examine the implications of China's oil diplomacy on regional and global political stability. The article suggests that China has taken three steps to satisfy its growing domestic demand for oil—expanding overseas oil supplies from the Middle East, diversifying its importing sources by reaching out to Africa, Russia, Central Asia and the Americas, and securing oil transport routes. This article argues that China's oil diplomacy strengthens its ties with oil-producing nations and complicates those with oil-importing nations. Nevertheless, contrary to pessimistic predictions, China's oil diplomacy has neither upset the USA's fundamental policies towards Iraq and Iran, nor has it generated armed clashes in the South China Sea. China has largely accommodated the USA in these areas and has forged joint efforts in energy exploration with its Asian neighbours, except for Japan. China's benign oil diplomacy can be explained by the minor role of oil imports in its energy consumption and, more importantly, by China's peaceful-rise strategy.

Pakistan's new petroleum policy 1994: An immense promise

Pakistan has to import 78% of its domestic oil demand, despite an increase in indigenous production. Reducing the growing gap will require enhanced exploration efforts. The paper evaluates petroleum policy to 1994 against the backdrop of adverse factors and the manner in which these have been addressed. The investment climate could not be more ideal, as the offered package is both fair and handsome — making it an irresistible proposition to foreign investors. It is concluded that the package would prove to be an effective catalyst in enhancing exploration activities.

The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia—Pacific region

Years of strong economic growth in the Asia—Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters ‐ Indonesia. China and Malaysia ‐ will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010. over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil.

Indonesia's new refining capacity

Indonesia recently commissioned two refinery expansion projects of 200 thousand barrels per day (Mb/d) each, and an 85 Mb/d hydrocracker unit. These new facilities modernized and increased the country's existing 400 Mb/d capacity and made it possible for the nation to supply internally its growing domestic demand for refined petroleum products. The average annual growth rate of domestic oil demand since the beginning of Indonesia's first five-year plan in 1969 was, until 1982, more than 12% and was the main reason for the refinery expansion. These facilities, therefore, are not intended to gain a share in the international product market. This paper presents data on domestic supply and demand that show a growing heavy dependency on imports if the additional facilities had not been built. It is not expected that production from the new facilities will change the nation's exports significantly, although some additional exports may take place from time to time because of imbalances between refinery output and domestic demand, the growth rate of which is now down to about 1% per year.

Oil Substitution in ASEAN: Problems and Prospects

The increase in the price of internationally traded oil that took place during the 1970s gave rise to widespread problems of economic and energy adjustment throughout the world. In the oil-importing countries, oil imports made increasing claims on export earnings and caused balance-of-payments problems. In addition, the coupling of the energy system and the economic system led to accelerated infla tion, and lower economic growth rates, and almost every aspect of economic activity was affected because of the escalation in oil prices. Thus, reducing oil demand has become a matter of great urgency for these countries. The oil exporting countries, on the other hand, were beneficiaries of the rise in oil prices. However, they were faced with the problem of rapid growth in domestic oil demand resulting from the sudden increase in national income and, in many of these countries, the setting of domestic oil product prices at levels substantially lower than international levels. These countries have now also realized the need to reduce domestic oil demand, both for the purpose of channelling more of the oil produced for export and for conserving this depletable resource for the long-term future. The present uncertainty surrounding the world oil supplies is expected to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future. Internationally traded oil will con tinue to be the main balancing fuel to meet fluctuations in energy demand, and sudden changes in the price of oil due to scarcity or glut would in the future, as in the past, adversely affect economic growth.1 This further reinforces the need to reduce oil use and diversify the sources of energy supply, particularly in the coun tries which are highly oil-dependent. There are two possible ways of reducing oil use: to use it more efficiently, and to increase the use of alternative energy sources. This paper is concerned with the latter. More specifically, it is concerned with the problems and prospects of switching away from using oil as an energy source, or to find an oil substitute, in ASEAN.

OPEC domestic oil demand: product forecasts for 1985 and 1990

OPEC domestic oil demand: product forecasts for 1985 and 1990

Demand Analysis of the Markets for Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal

A 10-equation simultaneous model of the soybean economy was constructed. This involved relationships representing quantities demanded domestically as well as exported, for both soybean oil and soybean meal. Estimates of the structural parameters of the model were obtained by the two-stage least-squares procedure, using first differences of the data. The estimates indicate an annual necessary increase of more than 30 million bushels of beans to cover the needs of the United States, Western Europe, Japan, and Canada, if prices are to remain relatively constant. This amount is based on the assumption that human and animal populations increase and that shifts in tastes and preferences and in feeding technology in these regions are of the same magnitude as they were during the period 19491964. Also it was assumed that the production of competing oils and oilseeds at the same prices as in the last decade would not drastically change. The domestic demand for oil and meal is price-inelastic (-.45, -.28); this statement holds for exports also (-.90, -.58). However, the price elasticities of demand for meal are less reliable than those of demand for oil. POLICY MAKERS in the United States must decide how far soybean production should be encouraged. Decisions in matters of this kind are made on the basis of knowledge derived from the past and evaluations of what the future may bring. This report is mainly concerned with an analysis of the past in the soybean sector through an econometric study of prices and quantities demanded. A 10-equation model was constructed, involving relationships representing quantities demanded domestically as well as quantities exported. Estimates of the structural parameters of the model were obtained by the two-stage least-squares procedure. The Economic Model

Methods of Making Petroleum Engineers Aware of New Technology

Abstract At the present accelerated rate of change in petroleum technology, engineers must keep up with and utilize newly-developed improved techniques. Significant contributions to petroleum engineering technology are appearing today in journals and patents of at least 20 countries. In addition, many articles published in the literature of basic science, mathematics and other engineering disciplines are analogous and pertinent to petroleum engineering. One way of coping with this large volume of information is to have qualified engineers review and evaluate each item and prepare summaries of those considered significant for distribution to other engineers. Another problem is to label such items so they can be found readily at a later date. The classification, alphabetical indexing and concept coordination systems have been used for this purpose. The latter, which has received wide acceptance, is simplified by the use of a standardized vocabulary of petroleum engineering terms and concepts. Each engineer must study, learn and use this technology to improve his performance and output. This is his responsibility to himself, his profession and his employer. Supplying engineers with such tools for current awareness and information retrieval is only the first step. Introduction Rate of Change in Petroleum TechnologyMost petroleum technology has developed during the past 25 years; in fact, over half within the past 10 years. The accelerated rate of change can be gauged by reviewing a few technological trends. Computers were introduced in the middle fifties and now, 10 years later, little is done without their assistance. This in turn has increased the use of the analytical or mathematical approach in petroleum engineering. In the United States the petroleum industry has moved offshore in its search for new reserves. This has introduced a host of new problems related to drilling, completing, servicing and producing wells in water depths exceeding 100 ft. New problems have evolved in gathering and transporting the produced hydrocarbons to shore. Robots have been introduced to replace divers for work in deep water on the ocean floor. Concentration of oil and gas reserves has shifted from the U. S. to the Middle East and North Africa. Recent slowing down in the growth rate of domestic oil demand, coupled with a brisk demand for oil and gas abroad, has resulted in internationalization of the domestic oil industry. Also, the oil industry must take into account potential competition for the energy market from nuclear energy, fuel cells and solar energy. Oil and gas can soon expect competition from hydrocarbons that were unable to compete in the past: shale oils, tar sands and viscous oils. Since new reserves have become so difficult and expensive to find in the U. S., the oil industry has shifted its attention to unexplored areas of the world and to new recovery methods for some 200 billion bbl of domestic reserves that cannot be produced by conventional techniques. These newer developments have included miscible displacement, carbon dioxide flooding, alcohol slug flooding, in situ combustion and steam injection. Why Engineers Must Keep LearningTo retain an active role in today's vigorous and dynamic petroleum industry, engineers must constantly keep learning. There is now more opportunity and challenge for technically trained personnel than ever before. Yet, due to the ever-changing technology, no engineer (BS, MS or PhD) can expect to be trained adequately for solving even a fraction of the problems he will encounter. University study gives him the necessary fundamental training for later supplemental learning in industry as specific problems arise and must be solved. In school, the engineer learns how to think, and how to improve his knowledge through self-effort. But most important is the individual's willingness to devote personal time, energy and perseverance to this important task. Professional societies and industry's management group can play an important role in the engineer's continuous training. First, these groups should motivate engineers toward continuous learning. Secondly, they can assist by placing in the engineer's hands the necessary tools, material and information for effectively pursuing new knowledge. It is the object of this paper to discuss information dissemination techniques for accomplishing this task. JPT P. 569ˆ

The Fuel Complex

T HE United States consumes over 40 per cent of the fuel and waterpower energy produced in the world. This energy-processed into many forms of solids, liquids, and gases, besides electricity-provides heat, powers machinery, and satisfies numerous needs that make the country's economy run. Energy supply was the least of worries during the development of the American economy. The country had abundant resources of coal, petroleum, natural gas, and water power, which permitted a wide choice of energy products to the consumer. Domestic requirements could be readily supplied and export orders fully met. Perhaps, it may be said, this was the situation until several years ago. The United States has been on an import basis with respect to petroleum since 1948. Its coal and natural gas reserves produce as required, but petroleum reserves have tended to become niggardly about output. Imports of petroleum and its products represent only 12 per cent of the total domestic oil demand. But that they have grown rapidly, and that large amounts of American capital are invested in foreign oil, point to the reality that imports are an established fact in domestic petroleum supply, and their importance will expand. It means that the United States has become sensitive to world supply conditions, and will become more so with regard to petroleum, the largest source of energy it utilizes. The United States requirements in the world fuel market transactions are modest against those of most countries. World fuel resources of a magnitude that can produce for export are confined to a few areas. Today, the United States is the only country that can offer a substantial tonnage of exportable coal. Venezuela and the Middle East cover the countries that have surplus petroleum in volume. As a result, there are many countries that supplement their indigenous energy supply by competing for fuels in the few areas of surplus. More and more the fuel outlook must be gauged with reference to world requirements and supply if realistic evaluations are to be made.