Dollar Price Research Articles

Defense of High-Speed Rail With an Evolutionary Algorithm Guided by Game Theory

High-speed rail (HSR) holds promise as an investment to modernize the transportation infrastructure of the United States of America and support its national economy. The half trillion dollar price tag necessitates thorough analysis and planning to ensure long-term success, including a well formulated vulnerability analysis to identify an optimal or near-optimal strategy for deploying protective technologies and infrastructure that will render the HSR network resilient to disruptions induced by natural disasters and terrorist threats. This paper embeds a game-theoretic vulnerability assessment technique that considers the impact of defending network links into a genetic algorithm, which searches for a near-optimal assignment of finite defensive resources to the links of the network. The terms link and edge are used interchangeably in this paper. The approach is applied to the incremental HSR network deployment map given by the U.S. High-Speed Rail Association, describing network construction over a 15-year period from 2015 to 2030. Our results suggest that, over the life of the HSR network, a strategy utilizing relocatable defenses could achieve significant savings compared to less flexible strategies that rely solely on static defenses.

Dynamics of Production and Foreign Trade of Russia

Export and import value indices were synchronous in their decline throughout the past year, 2015. The behavior of exports was naturally shaped by the plunge of prices of raw materials (even though their physical volume remained roughly the same), while the declining value of imports was caused by the shrinkage, by one quarter, of their physical volume and the slight decline of the average dollar prices of inward moving goods, including due to the US dollar’s rise against practically all world currencies. In January 2016, the shrinkage of imports and exports continued; more particularly, the plunge of exports was deeper, and the balance of trade hit its record low of the last few years – $8.5bn.

Good Deal Indices in Asset Pricing: Actuarial and Financial Implications

We integrate into a single optimization problem a risk measure, beyond the variance, and either arbitrage free real market quotations or financial pricing rules generated by an arbitrage free stochastic pricing model. A sequence of investment strategies such that the couple (expected-return, risk) diverges to (+∞, ‒∞) will be called a good deal. The existence of such a sequence is equivalent to the existence of an alternative sequence of strategies such that the couple (risk, price) diverges to (‒∞, ‒∞). Moreover, by appropriately adding the riskless asset, every good deal may generate a new one only composed of strategies priced at one.We will see that good deals often exist in practice, and the main objective of this paper will be to measure the good deal size. The provided good deal indices will equal an optimal ratio between both risk and price, and there will exist alternative interpretations of these indices. They also provide the minimum relative (per dollar price modification that prevents the existence of good deals. Moreover, they will be a crucial instrument to detect those securities or marketed claims which are over- or under-priced.Many classical actuarial and financial optimization problems may generate wrong solutions if the used market quotations or stochastic pricing models do not prevent the existence of good deals. This fact is illustrated in the paper, and we point out how the provided good deal indices may be useful to overcome this caveat. Numerical experiments are included as well.

Emerging Market Demand and the Changing Dynamics of the Price of Gold

Empirical research on the dynamics of the US dollar price of gold has largely focused on the macroeconomic influence of developed economies and gold’s role as a safe haven during times of market turmoil. However, the economies of several emerging markets now account for a substantial fraction of global gold holdings, and these holdings are not necessarily correlated with financial market uncertainty in developed markets. This paper compares two extensions to a popular econometric model of the US dollar gold price. We do so by incorporating the consumer holdings of gold from the largest emerging markets and comparing the effectiveness of our model over time to one that incorporates a measure of volatility in US financial markets (the VIX index). Our results indicate that emerging market consumer demand has a significant and growing impact on the relationship between USD exchange rates and the price of gold, and that this relationship has a stronger influence than does the level of uncertainty in US financial markets.

The Progressivee Goods and Services Tax (GST) (Fiscal Policy) as a Tool of Inflation Targeting?

This paper is divided into two parts: - Parts I and II. Part I of this paper addresses whether a valid analogy can be drawn between ‘Business Activity Statements’ as evident in the Australian Goods and Services Tax system (GST) and ‘VAT/GST tax returns’ (as a developing concept) effectively making the value added tax (VAT) systems across the approximately 145 countries throughout the World that have a VAT including that of Australia a progressive rather than a regressive taxation system with significant ‘tax and macroeconomic’ benefits to the countries that adopt such a system. This would effectively be achieved by extending the concept of a GST tax invoice as an analogy to a VAT/GST tax return for individuals and/or families. By developing such an analogy it is hypothesised that by multiplying the GST tax invoice - with a GST rate of 10% (as evident here in Australia) - by 0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% and even maybe 60% or on the basis of any other numerical figure, logic and the Suits Index that the once thought of regressive VAT/GST throughout the 145 countries would thus become progressive in nature. The VAT/GST tax return would allow for the individual and/or the family situation and thus apply progressive rates in terms of ability to pay (premised upon assessable income or taxable income) to that tax base (expenditure) thus achieving progressivity in the indirect taxation system. The paper will also look at (generally) the following tax policy issues in assessing the progressive VAT: 1. Fairness or Equity 2. Simplicity 3. Efficiency/Neutrality 4. Suitability for Achieving Macro-Level Objectives A viable solution to the regressive-progressive VAT/GST debate both here in Australia and abroad? Part II of the paper however will also propose a cost of living allowance tax credit or rebate (both expenditure and savings based) funded through the progressive VAT/GST potentially allowing for the overcoming of the costs, consequences and effects of inflation. This part of the paper will also extend the purchasing power of the dollar price index (salaries and wages) and will thus prove through a simple mathematical representation as to how the expenditure based cost of living allowance tax credit can allow for the maintenance of the purchasing power of income (ie, salaries and wages) as an initial illustrative example of the macroeconomic benefits that may potentially be achieved through the cost of living allowance expenditure based tax credit or rebate. This part of the paper will also attempt a resolution to the Fisher equation. The Fisher equation relates interest rates to inflation. The paper will by proposing a cost of living allowance tax credit (savings based) also funded through the progressive VAT/GST may allow for a solution to the Fisher equation. Thus through a simple mathematical representation I will attempt to prove the above. A viable solution to the costs, consequences and effects of inflation?

What Factors Give Cryptocurrencies Their Value: An Empirical Analysis

This paper aims to identify the likely source(s) of value that cryptocurrencies exhibit in the marketplace using cross sectional empirical data examining 66 of the most used such 'coins'. A regression model was estimated that points to three main drivers of cryptocurrency value: the aggregate computational power employed in mining for units of the cryptocurrency; the rate of unit production; and the cryptologic algorithm used for the protocol. Bitcoin-denominated relative prices were used, avoiding much of the price volatility associated with the dollar price of Bitcoin. The resulting model can be used so better understand the drivers of value observed in cryptocurrencies. These findings may also have implications in understanding other assets such as commodity forms of money. Keywords—Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, altcoins, asset pricing, money, payment systems, currency exchanges

Optimal Monetary Policy Under a Global Dollar Standard: The Effect of Vertical Trade and Production

This paper revisits Devereux et al. (J Int Econ 71:113–132 2007) which studies trade and macroeconomic behaviour in a two-country model under a reference currency such as the dollar in US-China trade. The home country (e.g. the US) sets its export prices in dollars and so does the foreign country (e.g. China), so that the US has Local Currency Pricing (LCP) of its imports while China has Producer Currency Pricing (PCP) of its imports. We crucially modify their model by adding the large and by now well-known trade in intermediate goods. The addition implies that there is now exchange-rate pass-through via intermediate-goods markets into US import prices which thereby become to some degree PCP like China; accordingly monetary expansion in the US now produces not merely an expansion effect in both countries but also an expenditure-switching effect towards itself by lowering its exchange rate and so raising the relative US consumer prices of Chinese goods. This modification has implications for the effects of monetary policy in both countries.

Relationship between RMB to U.S Dollar Exchange Rate and Prices of US Textile Exports from China

China is the United States’ second largest trading partner, with trade between the two countries rising from $5billion in 1981 to $ 536 billion in 2012. However, the two countries are involved a trade dispute regardingChina’s refusal to appreciate the RMB. The undervaluation of RMB has affected US manufacturing firmsespecially in the textile industry. China exports textiles to the US at lower prices than US textiles in thedomestic market. This has led to shutdown of US textile firms and job losses in the sector. China has acompetitive advantage over the US in the textile industry because of cheap labor, economies of scope and scaleand abundant labor supply. The US argues that if China allows RMB to appreciate, this will mean that the pricesof Chinese exports to the US will rise. This will reduce the US China trade deficit. The appreciation of RMB toUS dollar will increase the prices of US Textile exports to the US. The purpose of the paper is to analyze therelationship between RMB to the US Dollar and prices of US Textile exports.

MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND RISING FOOD PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

Purpose: This study examines the long and short-run impact of macroeconomic variable on rising food commodities prices. Methodology/Sampling: For this paper mixed method approach is used, quantitative time series data over the period 1991-2013 and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to Co-integration, whereas qualitative data is collected from thematic analysis of many past researches in order to determine the most and least critical consequences of food prices skies by using NVIVO 10 software technique “tree map”. Findings: The result shows energy prices and dollar prices have positive beta coefficients and having statistically significant impact on rising food commodities price index Moreover, the error correction model’s coefficient is with negative sign that suggests its expected significant adjustment toward long-term. Whereas the qualitative results identified different variables have different magnitude of relationship with rising food prices in different situation; Exchange rate, energy prices, money supply are the most critical consequences of rising food items prices. Practical Implications: The study therefore recommends that government should develop and integrated efficient and effective energy and monetary policy with long-term future development outline of controlling food inflation.

Relationship between Dollar Exchange Rate, Monetary Liquidity and International Oil Price

This paper provides an analysis on three variables based on observation and experiment: Brent oil prices, the dollar exchange rate and the dollar liquidity (M2), and verifies their interactions relations. The analysis shows that the Granger reason of Brent oil price is the dollar exchange rate and extends the Krugmans achievement. The concept of dollar liquidity (M2) illustrates the important role of oil price in global economic system. China should guide the oil price to a reasonable interval by making full use of the top of oil consumption status in the world.

DOES DOLLARIZATION ALLEVIATE OR AGGRAVATE EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY?

Relying on hard currency or dollarizing an economy has been a common practice of many developing countries taking the form of dollarizing bank deposits and loans, settling transactions in dollars and the indexation of wages and prices in dollars. The relationship between dollarization and exchange rate volatility is both theoretically and empirically unresolved. While the effect of such practices has been the focus of numerous investigations, such studies have concentrated on the Latin American and Asian economies. This paper contributes to the limited research on the African economies by specifically investigating the consequences of dollarization on Eritrean exchange rate volatility. Using quarterly official and black market exchange rate data for the study period 1996-2008, E-GARCH analysis suggests that dollarization has a positive impact on real exchange rate volatility.Keywords: Dollarization, Exchange Rate Volatility, Eritrea, Official and Black MarketJEL classification: F3, O2, O5(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. INTRODUCTIONThe dollarization of the developing countries has been an inspiring field of research for many scholars. Despite a number of studies that address the measurement and consequences of dollarization, this literature concentrates on the Latin American and Asian economies with very limited focus on African economies. In this paper, we investigate whether dollarization alleviates or aggravates exchange rate volatility in the case of Eritrea. The existing literature suggests that the impact of dollarization can depend on the form of dollarization that exists in a given economy. For example, Akofio-Sowah (2009), Savvides (1996), Schnabl, (2007) and Barrell et al. (2009) among others show that if dollarization is full, then dollarization minimises exchange rate volatility. Similarly, Fielding and Shields (2003) argue that full monetary union leads to lower real exchange rate volatility than is the case under a fixed exchange rate system. However, if dollarization takes a partial form, then the evidence is less clear-cut. The theoretical work of Girton and Roper (1981), Akcay et al. (1997) and Corrado (2008) demonstrate that exchange rate instability increases with the increase of the degree of currency substitution. Empirical studies by Calvo and Vegh (1992, 1996), Yinusa (2008) and Akcay et al. (1997) suggest that an increase in dollarization increases the exchange rate volatility. In contrast to these studies, Devereux and Lane (2003) find that financial dollarization in the form of acquiring dollar loans alleviates exchange rate volatility.In addition to an African focus, our contribution to the literature is further enhanced through the construction and utilisation of a new hard currency index based on a holistic approach towards its measurement. This approach suits the nature of the Eritrean economy and addresses the shortcomings of alternative measures of dollarization adopted by earlier studies. In further contrast to the existing literature, we analyse both the official and black market exchange rate in both nominal and real form.The paper is organized as follows. In the following section, we briefly review the relevant literature. The third section discusses the data and methodology. Quarterly time series data for Eritrea are employed for the study period 1996Q1-2008Q4. Estimation is based on extending the Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model originally proposed by Nelson (1991). The fourth section offers a discussion of the econometric findings. We find that dollarization has a positive impact on exchange rate volatility. The final section offers a summary and conclusion.2. LITERATURE REVIEWDollarization, which refers to the use of US dollars or any other foreign currency within the domestic economy, has become a contemporary economic feature of many countries from the developing world. …

A Study of Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Performance of Nifty

The paper tries to examine the primary factors responsible for affecting National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India. Further this paper attempts to investigate the relative influence of the factors affecting NSE and thereby categorizing them. It is a well known fact that dollar price or money exchange rate, IIP numbers and WPI values has a great influence on Nifty therefore; this research identifies the level of influence of exchange rate, IIP numbers and WPI values on Nifty. For establishing the relationship Regression Analysis has been used by using SPSS. The results suggest that values of IIP, WPI and Exchange Rate significantly affect the performance of Nifty.

The New Zealand dollar and milk prices

This paper explores the association between the nominal and real exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar against US dollar and the price of milk, using daily data spanning the period 2000–2011. Through the error correction model approach and the generalised autoregressive heteroskedastic approach, applied both over the entire period and across the exchange rate cycle, the empirical findings suggest that there is evidence in favour of a relationship between the exchange rate and the price of milk, in terms of means and conditional volatilities, with certain differentiations across the exchange rate cycle. The results are important, in terms of information availability, for milk producers, exporters, monetary policymakers, hedge funds managers and international portfolio managers. Moreover, they provide additional support to the hypothesis that both markets are driven by the same information sets.

Export Performance, Invoice Currency, and Heterogeneous Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Using comprehensive, shipment-level merchandise trade data, we examine the extent to which New Zealand exporters maintain stable New Zealand dollar prices by passing on exchange rate changes to foreign customers. We find that the extent to which firms absorb exchange rate fluctuations in the short run is significantly related to both invoice currency choice and exporter characteristics when these are analysed separately. However, when jointly accounted for, the role of exporter characteristics largely disappears. That is, some firm types are more inclined to invoice in the New Zealand dollar, while others use either the importer or a third currency. In the short run, this translates into differences in exchange rate pass-through because of price rigidity in the invoice currency. Differences across invoice currencies diminish, but do not disappear, over time as prices adjust to reflect bilateral exchange rate movements.

A Study of the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market: Indian Perspective

Result of this study help in exploring whether the movement of Bombay Stock Exchanges indices is the outcome of some selected macroeconomic variables or it is one of the causes of movement in those variables of the Indian economy. The study consider macroeconomic variables as Index of Industrial production (IIP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Call Money Rate (CMR), Dollar Price (DP), Foreign Institutional Investment (FII), Crude Oil Prices (CO), Gold Price (GP) and Bombay Stock Exchanges indices in the form of SENSEX, BSE- Metals, Auto, Capital Goods, Fast Moving Consumer Goods and Consumer Durables by using monthly data that span from April, 2005 to March, 2012. More specifically, in the study we use ADF test, Correlation and Regression analysis and Granger Casually test to see the effect of macroeconomic variables on Bombay Stock Exchange Indices and vice versa (by using Granger Causality test) and found some interesting results for our study analysis.

Investing in Gold: What to Expect?

Gold is an attractive investment vehicle for many people. Some risks of in investing in gold are surveyed. The price of gold and its fluctuation are examined which raises the concern to all short and long-term investors in gold. This prompts us to study what drives the price movements of gold. In order to shed some light on this intriguing issue, we briefly review the recent history of gold prices within the last century and look at some relationships of gold with the US dollar and stock prices, among other variables. We conclude with some forecast of future prices.

Pricing and Control in the Next Generation Power Distribution System

Smart grid technologies are gaining acceptance and are being integrated into power distribution systems as a result of public and private investment and funding. However, costs of these technologies appear to be a clear obstacle in the widespread integration and maximal use of these technologies. In this paper, the utilization of dollar pricing signals is proposed and illustrated for power distribution engineering. A signal modeled after locational marginal pricing from transmission engineering is proposed to provide pricing data locally in distribution systems. The calculation, utilization, advantages, and shortcomings of the concept are presented. A main conclusion is that the use of a distribution locational marginal price signal fits well with an electronically controlled power distribution system.

The nominal rand/dollar exchange rate: before and after 1995

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to undertake an econometric investigation of the determinants of the nominal South African rand/US dollar exchange rate before and after the country's financial liberalisation in March 1995.Design/methodology/approachRegression models are used to examine the changing relationships between the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate and the determinants of capital flows, fundamentals, and country‐specific factors over the long‐run of 1988 to 2007, as well as over the sub‐sample periods of 1988 to 1995, and 1995 to 2007.FindingsThe results show that the factors that are associated with the rand/dollar exchange rate are different before and after the country's financial liberalisation. Prior to 1995, bond and equity purchases by non‐residents, the long‐term interest rate differential, political risk, and the Dollar price of gold were highly significant. However, post‐1995, only the net purchases of shares on the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE) by non‐residents and the long‐term interest rate differential are significant.Originality/valueThe results suggest that the Rand has changed from being a “commodity currency” in the years before 1995 to being an “equity currency” after 1995.

The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan

For a better understanding of the ongoing debates on the RMB, this paper investigates the effects of exchange rate shocks on output and the current account for China and Japan. We use structural vector auto-regression models and find that yen appreciation reduces current account surpluses while having no strong effect on output in Japan. RMB appreciation, on the other hand, has an insignificant effect on the current account, although it tends to reduce output in China. For China, dollar pricing with vertical trade integration seems responsible for the insignificant effect on the current account.

The Link Between the Brent Crude Oil Price and the US Dollar Exchange Rate

Growth in the intensity of the inverse relationship between the US dollar exchange rate and the Brent crude oil price has been observed over the last decade. This may be linked, among other things, to the growing role of commodities as an alternative investment instrument at times of excess liquidity and low interest rates on global markets. This analysis examines monthly data from January 1982 to September 2010. Since 2002 the direction of the relationship in the Granger causality sense has been from the dollar exchange rate to the oil price. A weakening of the dollar of 1% causes the Brent oil price to rise by 2.1%. The contrary movements in the Brent oil price and the dollar exchange rate are a factor dampening the impact of sharp fl uctuations in the dollar price of oil on “non-dollar” economies, including the Czech Republic. This dampening effect was clearly visible in the period of sharp oil price growth in 2007 and 2008.