Doha Round Negotiations Research Articles

The effects of freer trade on global agriculture

AbstractIntransigency among developed and developing countries to reduce trade‐distortive policies—domestic subsidies, export subsidies, and import tariffs—created deadlock in the Doha Round negotiations. Because of this impasse, many countries continue to heavily subsidize their agricultural production and high import tariffs continue to persist in the world market. This study empirically quantifies the benefits of a global free trade agreement utilizing a large‐scale computable general equilibrium model. The results show that a global trade agreement increases welfare by $60 billion as commodity production and consumption adjust to reflect their comparative advantage patterns, accentuating the benefits of completing a global free trade agreement.

Who wins from an FTA induced revival of world trade?

The last decade has been characterized by a slowdown in globalization, referred to by some as "slowbalisation" and “deglobalization”. The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced this impression. To overcome the deadlock in the Doha round negotiations at WTO the major players in world trade are negotiating or have already implemented several free trade agreements (FTAs) as a second-best solution. We analyze within a common framework nine mega FTAs, some of them are already in effect, others will be enacted soon. Overall, not the big players in world trade, the EU and the United States win by a simultaneous implementation of the nine FTAs. Japan would be the winner because it participates in four combinations (overlaps) of FTAs: EU-Japan, USA-Japan, CPTPP and RCEP. The United States hardly gain from further globalization. Similarly, the EU27 cannot profit much from further globalization.

Regionalism or Multilateralism: Evidence from India

With an impasse at Doha round of negotiations, many countries started to change their course of economic liberalization from generic policies of multilateralism to regional trade agreements (RTAs). In this scenario, India plausibly lacks the presence and will of concluding such agreements with some of its major trading partners while being sceptical about the existing ones. Using structural gravity, this study has quantified the impact of country-specific globalization levels and RTAs on international trade among India and its 32 major trading partners. Unlike a plethora of studies employing the gravity model on Indian trade policy issues, we have made use of many recent advancements in gravity modelling. Our methodology robust to the use of intra-national trade data, two alternative estimators, and multiple scenarios naturally addresses the endogeneity issues that are prominent with trade policy variables like RTAs. The empirical results reveal that RTAs have a comparatively strong impact in promoting trade among sample countries. However, country-specific globalization levels measured by the KOF globalization index have a very negligible impact on promoting trade among sample countries. Furthermore, we have obtained very slight asymmetries across the impact of country-specific globalization levels on exports versus imports of mid-income countries with high-income countries. JEL Codes: F1, F14, F15, F60, F68

Trade Negotiations in the Digital Era: The Case of OTT Video Streaming Services

AbstractThis paper explores the dynamics of trade negotiations over over‐the‐top (OTT) video streaming services (VSS) in the multilateral trading system. Specifically, it compares specific commitments made under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and offers submitted to the Doha Round negotiations by the European Union and the United States, and examines the two countries’ recent domestic media regulatory reforms in order to delineate major negotiation issues for OTT VSS. The findings of the analysis suggest that the EU continues to take an ‘all‐or‐nothing’ negotiating strategy while the US takes a ‘salami‐slice’ strategy on OTT VSS to pursue the utmost trade liberalization in the sector. The case study of OTT VSS highlights fundamental issues central to the ongoing services trade negotiations in the digital era. It may provide policymakers with significant implications regarding digital trade policy.

ДЕРЖАВНА ПІДТРИМКА АГРАРНОГО СЕКТОРУ В УМОВАХ МІЖНАРОДНОЇ КООРДИНАЦІЇ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ 1995–2012 рр.: ЗАРУБІЖНИЙ ДОСВІД

The article analyzes the mechanism of implementation of the state agrarian policy in progressing for the period 1995–2012. In countries such as China, Brazil, India and South Africa, in the context of multilateral regulation of world agricultural economic markets, it was possible to identify the specifics of each and the most common ways of adapting state support for agriculture to national obligations to the WTO. The general directions of adjusting the state agrarian policy of the mentioned countries are considered: preservation, basically, on the level of tariff, and somewhere non-tariff protection, with the subsequent transfer of the latter to uniform standards; gradual transition to the least destructive in relation t o the market forms of support for agricultural producers; pulling average PSE and TSE levels in OECD countries to average specific indicators. Accession to the WTO and the adoption of fixed obligations did not slow down the development of the agricultural sector of these countries, which is confirmed, firstly, by the dynamics of gross agricultural production, which accelerated sharply at the stage of the 2000s and outpaced the population growth rate; secondly, an increase in agricultural productivity. It is proved that membership in the WTO does not prevent the search for individual forms of support for agriculture that are tailored to the specifics of a certain period in a particular country, logically stimulating their approach first to the level of desired direct payments, increasing the income of farmers, and then in the green basket, leaving space to “bargain” for favourable conditions for state support for agricultural development within the framework of the Doha round of negotiations.

Is It Finally Time for India's Free Trade Agreements? The ASEAN “Present” and the RCEP “Future”

AbstractSince the inception of the WTO in 1995, India enthusiastically explored export-promotion strategies through multilateral trade reforms. However, the country has moved towards the regional trade route since 2004, primarily owing to the slow progress of the Doha Round negotiations. As a result, the whole architecture of international trade law and governance is being redesigned in the Asia Pacific region. This paper focuses on the pivotal role played by India in this rebalancing. Given the stress on services exports and investment requirements, India focused on entering into comprehensive agreements encompassing merchandise and services trade as well as investment provisions. Presently, India is involved in the ongoing Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership [RCEP] negotiations, where ASEAN remains at the core. The current analysis evaluates the Indo-ASEAN trade patterns and evolving dynamics over the last decade through select trade indices, and comments on the future of the RCEP.

Transforming WTO to Serve as ICSID-Like Function for FTA Disputes in a Decentralized Trade Order (Presentation Slides)

WTO’s stagnation in the Doha Round negotiation has proven its declining role as a forum for new rule creation. The systemic implication might be that the WTO could only operate on outmoded laws, which will not be able to address the needs of business caused by new trade problems. However, in contrast, within Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), various new trade rules have been created and expanded, which go far beyond the scope of the WTO. For instance, in the CPTPP and CETA, rules on investment, environment, labor, competition, e-commerce and state enterprises are established. As FTAs proliferate around the world, the shifting of paradigm has also changed the profile of international trade. The WTO currently faces its systemic risks from the U.S.-China trade tension and Appellate Body nominations. Obviously, what will be the future role for the WTO to play in the decentralization of governance would not only relate to the existence of the WTO, but also mark a turning point for future world trade order. In the view of the writer, the ICSID-BITs model in international investment law provides an insightful approach for international trade. As practiced, the investment law regime is generally evolved through bifurcation, without a central authority. On the one hand, foreign investments are protected through substantive rules in various BITs. On the other hand, most investor-state disputes under BITs are resolved in light of the ICSID arbitral proceedings. Through opt-in model contained in BITs and foreign investors’ wider use, the ICSID has successfully sustained and facilitated the development of BITs. Modelled on investment law, the writer suggests that the future development of trade law run on the shared responsibilities by important FTAs and the WTO. That is, FTAs could serve as the main platform for creating new substantive trade rules in response to new economic realities. The WTO, through its effective dispute settlement mechanism, could function as ICSID-like forum, giving its robust back-up to the FTAs and FTA parties who are also WTO members. In this sense, it is suggested that WTO should transform itself to be more inclusive, flexible and accessible to all FTA-related disputes.

Evaluation of the Impact of Various Doha Round Conclusion Scenarios at the WTO Agricultural Negotiation

This paper evaluates the impacts of various scenarios proposed in the context of the WTO Doha Round agricultural negotiations and a new scenario that considers differential treatment for developing countries. The objective of this paper is to contribute to find the desired consensus among WTO members to facilitate trade and avoid trade wars. We used the Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM) to measure impacts and use the ADAMS model to measure the equity of the various scenarios. We considered seven negotiating scenarios (1) Uruguay Round Agreement, (2) C4 country proposal, (3) EU proposal, (4) USA proposal, (6) our proposal and (7) full liberalization of trade. The results showed that our proposal increases the cotton producers’ price by 10.8%, better than the C4 countries proposal (9.0%) and USA proposals (6.1%). Our proposal for agricultural agreements increases the world price (8.1%), the consumer’s price (7.4%) and the volume of exports (2.3%), certainly to a lesser degree than that of the C4 countries proposal but more than the USA proposal. In terms of the equity criterion, it is as favorable as the other scenarios compared to the status quo of the Uruguay Round. Our proposal presents the elements for a compromise to conclude the Doha Round, with benefits for developing countries and the introduction of a new mechanism of international solidarity.

Negotiating from the margins: how the UN shapes the rules of the WTO

ABSTRACTWorld Trade Organization (WTO) rules on agriculture are among the most contentious issues in the international political economy due to agriculture's importance in the production of tradable commodities as well as economic development and food security in developing countries. In this article, I analyse a surprising and unexpected actor playing an important role in shaping WTO rules on agriculture – the United Nations (UN). While UN actors do not have a seat at the bargaining table, I argue that they invoke their delegated and moral authority and initiate actions to shape global trade rule-making. I demonstrate that UN actors have influenced the discourse, agenda and outcomes of trade negotiations by analysing three cases: (1) the Food and Agriculture Organization orchestrating a Uruguay Round agreement in favour of food insecure developing countries; (2) the World Food Programme's blocking of trade rules on international food aid during the Doha Round negotiations; (3) a proposal by the UN Special Rapporteur on the right to food for a legal waiver to protect public food stockholding that was taken up by WTO member states in 2013.

Plurilateral Trade Agreements: An Escape Route for the WTO?

Due to the persistent stalemate in the WTO ’ s Doha Round negotiations, various smaller-scale options have drawn attention in recent years, including the negotiation of plurilateral agreements (PAs) among interested governments. There are essentially two types of such agreements, an exclusive and an open variant. While the former apply among the signatories only, the latter are implemented on a Most-favoured-Nation (MFN) basis. To preclude ‘ free riding ’ , the entry into force of such open PAs is usually conditioned on the participation of a ‘ critical mass ’ of countries, representing market shares of some 80% or more – quite a challenging benchmark. To promote more frequent use of PAs, given the plethora of pressing policy concerns, whether investment-, competition- or labour-related, the negotiation of exclusive agreements is being (re-)considered in current discussions. However, the entry into force of any non-MFN-based agreement would need to be accepted by consensus among all 160-odd WTO Members, and this may prove virtually impossible to achieve. This article thus proposes, based on past experience, to further explore the potential for open PAs among interested Members in the form of co-ordinated improvements of current commitments or, if not covered by the existing WTO framework, by way of ‘ WTOextra ’ understandings.

China and the WTO: On a Path to Leadership?

This chapter considers whether China has embarked on a path to WTO leadership since its historic accession in 2001. I argue that China is increasingly displaying the will to lead, an essential prerequisite for state leadership. China has become progressively more proactive, making independent proposals, joining undertakings initiated by other members, submitting numerous notifications, and regularly filing formal dispute settlement complaints despite its historical aversion to international adjudication. But does its growing participation signal leadership? China's trajectory towards WTO leadership is analyzed by identifying signs of its will to lead in the WTO--in its rhetoric, its participation and its initiatives. I maintain that indications of China's will to lead are evident, for example, in its strong support of globalization and the multilateral trading system (not trivial given US policy since the advent of Trump), China's continuing endorsement of the Doha Round negotiations (in contrast to other members that have declared the talks dead), and its initiation of talks on investment facilitation and active participation in talks on electronic commerce, among other things. At the same time, other factors are holding it back. For one, it is still learning how to lead in the WTO, despite moving considerably up the learning curve. More significantly, evidence of the willingness of other members to follow is presently limited. The essay aims at offering insight into China's behavior as a leader in the WTO, and the future leadership role China may play in the changing international trade environment, in which China paradoxically is taking over as the champion of an open global trading system, and possibly replacing US leadership in global economic governance.

(Korea's Multilateral Trade Polices in the Changing Global Trade Landscape)

Korean Abstract: 세계적으로 반무역자유화 정서가 확산되는 가운데 국제무역이 구조적으로 감소하고 있고 선진국을 중심으로 하는 복수국간협상이 확산되고 있다. 또한 파리기후변화협약의 이행으로 무역과 환경이 조화를 이루어야 하는 시대가 도래하였다. 본 보고서는 이러한 글로벌 통상환경에서 나타난 주요한 변화를 고려하여 나이로비 각료회의 이후 우리나라가 취해야 할 다자통상정책의 방향을 단기 DDA 협상대책과 중장기 정책방향으로 나누어 제시하였다. English Abstract: The WTO's Tenth Ministerial Conference, held in on December 2015, concluded with the adoption of the Nairobi Package, several ministerial decisions on agriculture, cotton and least-developed countries. The Package includes a historic decision to eliminate agricultural export subsidies, the most important reform of international trade rules in agriculture since the WTO was founded. The biggest disagreement among WTO members, however, goes beyond specific substantive issues: it is about the future of the Doha agenda and the WTO's negotiating function itself. While developing countries wished to continue with negotiations, industrialized nations, chief among them the United States, called for an end to the Doha Round. The Ministerial Declaration also acknowledges that WTO members different views on the future of the Doha Round negotiations but notes the strong commitment of all members to advance negotiations on the remaining Doha issues. In this situation, there have been significant changes in international trade since recent decades. First, trade growth has been anaemic since 2010. Already before the 2008 Global Crisis hit, the rate of growth of the ratio of global trade to GDP had slowed considerably. Most recent data show trade values declining. Second, plurilateral negotiations are rapidly widespread in the WTO. In particular, developed members have pushed for more sectoral deals like the ITA-II. Currently, a similar deal on tariff reductions for environmental goods is being negotiated. More sectoral tariff liberalization of this sort might be a good area to pursue. Along the same lines, the trade in services talks going on in Geneva could be brought formally into the WTO framework. Third, at the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal, which is expected to affect a significant impact on global trade. At the heart of the Paris climate agreement are national-level plans, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Although these INDCs are voluntary, they are considered a critical first step for an agreement designed to progressively ratchet up national commitments to collectively limit a global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial age levels. It is now time that we have to design a harmonization between trade and environments.

The Doha Round Negotiations and EU's Common Agricultural Policy

The Doha Round, launched in 2001, is the longest going (still unfinished) Round of negotiations in the history of the World Trade Organization and its predecessor GATT. The main roadblock to Doha’s successful completion is disagreement on agricultural issues – the Special Safeguard Mechanism, market access and domestic support. This paper analyzes the key factors underpinning the positions of developing and developed countries, with a focus on the role of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and some of EU’s preferential trade arrangements.

ドーハ・ラウンド交渉の変遷とWTOの将来

世界貿易機関（WTO）は，ドーハ・ラウンドを通じて貿易円滑化協定の発効や農業交渉の一部妥結等に部分的な成果を上げてきたが，貿易交渉のフォーラムとしてさらなる信頼回復に努めなければならない。そのためには，環境物品やサービス貿易分野での複数国間交渉の合意を目指すと共に，持続可能な開発の推進，国境を越えたサプライ・チェーンの拡大やデジタル経済の急速な進展といったグローバル・イシューの分野でも具体的な成果を出す必要がある。

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): The Devil in Disguise or a Golden Opportunity to Build a Transatlantic Marketplace?

Abstract The European Union (EU) and the United States are currently negotiating a free-trade agreement, the so-called Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). These negotiations have to be seen in perspective, since a number of other - bilateral and plurilateral - trade deals are being pursued at the same time. All these negotiations point to a worrisome aspect: the World Trade Organisation’s failure to come to a meaningful agreement in the Doha-round negotiations, in terms of market access, new rules and development. Like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), TTIP would stand out among the crowd of trade agreements because of the sheer volume of trade and investment flows across the Atlantic and the declared intention to boost regulatory cooperation and compatibility which is expected to bring the bulk of TTIP’s economic benefits. However, the prospect of concluding such a transatlantic agreement raises many concerns; the public in the European Union and the United States fears that TTIP could undermine existing levels of protection in areas such as health and the environment and impinge on either side’s “right to regulate”. Moreover, questions are being posed as to what TTIP would mean for the multilateral trading system and how it would affect third countries, especially developing countries. Against this backdrop, this article addresses the following issues in relation to TTIP: the vision underlying the negotiations; the European Commission’s negotiating mandate; the structure of the negotiations and their state of play; the Union’s competence for concluding TTIP and whether it is shared with EU Member States; and finally TTIP’s impact on the multilateral trading system and developing countries.

Aid for Trade and the Trade Facilitation Agreement: What They Can Do for LDCs

The Aid for Trade (AFT) initiative, launched in 2005 to help developing and especially the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) integrate the rules of the World Trade System adopted in the Uruguay Round turned out to be more about mobilizing support for the stalled Doha Round negotiations. A decade later, a broadened AFT agenda has eluded effective evaluation. The recently concluded Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) provides an ideal opportunity to narrow the scope of AFT activities to heed the call for ‘Managing for Development Results’ (MfDR). The article reviews the evidence on trade costs distinguishing between LDCs and Landlocked LDCS (LLDCs). The article also includes new estimates of time in transit for international parcel data that is measured relatively accurately. New estimates provide support for allocating a greater share of AFT funds towards LDCs and particularly towards LLDCs, both groups showing higher trade costs than comparators and less progress in reducing trade costs since 1995. On average, time in customs for imports and exports are also significantly higher for both groups than for their respective comparators. LDCs and LLDCs have systematically lower scores for the components in the new Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Trade Facilitation Indicator (TFI). These new estimates suggest that a successful implementation of the TFA, defined as moving halfway towards the frontier value of the TFI for the respective country grouping could reduce trade costs for imports of LDCs by 2.5% and by 4.5% for LLDCs. Even though there is more to trade costs than customs management, monitoring implementation of the TFA would be part of the Istanbul Program of Action (IPoA) and a stepping stone towards the concrete trade performance targets that have lacked in AFT activities so far.

The Forgotten History of Food Security in Multilateral Trade Negotiations

AbstractFood security emerged as a major source of political deadlock in the WTO Doha Round negotiations. Concerns about food security only intensified at the WTO following the 2008 Global Food Crisis, with the Bali and Nairobi Ministerials revealing polarized views between the US and India on the financing of public food stockholding. These ‘food fights’ at the WTO have attracted significant international media, civil society, and scholarly attention. In this article, I argue that inter-state disagreement on food security is not new or specific to the Doha Round but instead has been a recurrent phenomenon in the multilateral trade system for decades. Employing an historical approach, I show that food security has repeatedly been an item of negotiation in successive GATT negotiating rounds and has been steadily codified in international trade law over time. Today, food security is deeply integrated into the rules of the trade regime, making the WTO an important yet largely unacknowledged institution in global food security governance.

The Long and Winding Road – Path Towards Facilitation of Development in the WTO: Reflections on the Doha Round and Beyond

Abstract The current multilateral trading system under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO) displays a substantial development gap in the regulatory and institutional frameworks. The Doha Round negotiations, which was initiated to promote development interests under the Doha Development Agenda (DDA), have not been concluded for over 14 years, raising doubts about the ability of the WTO system to promote development interests effectively. While the Doha Round was sluggish for a number of years, regional trade agreements, which currently include every WTO Member, have been proliferated, creating significant implications for developing countries. This article examines the development of the Doha Round, analyzes the causes of its impasse, and explores its future prospects. The article also discusses the development gap in the current trading system and advances reform proposals to fill the gap in the system.

International trade and food security: conceptual discussion, WTO and the case of China

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to discuss the concept and measurements of food security under the framework of The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, explores the link between international trade and food security with an empirical investigation into the case of China, and draw policy implications in the context of WTO. Design/methodology/approach This paper elaborates the theoretical interconnection between food security and international trade and then utilize an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate how/whether trade affects food security in China from two dimensions. Findings The authors find that international trade indeed leads China to increase its dependence on food imports, namely, it negatively affects the food security in China. Owing to the importance of food security under multilateral trade system, this paper then briefly analyzes two relevant topics of Doha Round negotiation, i.e. public stockholding for food security and special safeguard measures. It is proposed that WTO members should support the food self-sufficiency endeavors of developing countries and appropriately exempt them from rigid discipline of domestic support and market access. Originality/value This paper discusses the interaction of international trade and food security in various aspects. Empirical study shows that increasing dependence on food imports will negatively impact the food security of China. It is concluded that WTO members should support the food self-sufficiency endeavors of developing countries and appropriately exempt them from rigid discipline of domestic support and market access.

The Aid for Trade Initiative: A WTO Attempt at Coherence

The Aid for Trade Initiative is an answer to developing countries’ requests for technical and financial assistance in the Doha Round negotiations. These requests prompted the WTO to collaborate with donors and development agencies but no attempt at increasing coherence between trade policy, aid policy, and development policy has been made. The main reason is that, while the WTO Secretariat had to collaborate with other institutions, it is not institutionally in a position to influence aid allocation. Aid for trade is delivered on donor’s terms in the same way than any other form of aid and the WTO’s role is largely limited to calling for more financial resources. The stalled Doha Round negotiations made matters worse as not only the Initiative was headless but it lost its initial core purpose of supporting the implementation of a multilateral agreement. As a result, the Initiative has grown increasingly de-linked from the Doha Round and support to trade capacity building and trade reforms has progressively slipped off donors’ priorities list. In its Aid for Trade Work Programme for 2012-13, the WTO implicitly acknowledged this reality. It did not call to increase coherence in policy making or in aid-for-trade delivery but merely asked donors to consider the trade dimension of their emerging new priorities. The Trade Facilitation Agreement reached in 2013 at the WTO Ministerial Conference in Bali is an opportunity to refocus the Initiative on clearly trade-related issues: implementing a multilateral trade agreement and reduce trade costs.