Dividend Announcements Research Articles

SEMI-STRONG EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS IN DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENTS AT INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE (IDX)

This research examines the semi-strong form of the market efficiency hypothesis in the context of dividend announcements at Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), specifically good news in the form of dividend value increase over the previous year and bad news in the form of dividend value decrease. This research aimed to see how dividend announcements affect stock prices and how effective the market reaction is. The samples used in this study are the companies listed on the mainboard with a cash dividend payment policy once a year and consistently distribute dividends in a row in 2020 and 2021. The observation method used in this study is non-participatory. The return anomaly of up to 59 sample companies was used, with a 21-day observation period. One statistically significant event occurred when announcements were positive (dividend increased), and three statistically significant events occurred announcements were negative (dividend dropped), according to the data results processed by t-test. It demonstrates that the market is effective and supports the market efficiency hypothesis in its semi-strong form.

Dividend announcement effect analysis before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in theIndonesia Stock Exchange.

The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 pandemic has become a challenge for the global society, including the investors in the capital market, due to the uncertainty it has caused. In relation to the phenomenon, this research aimed to examine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the dividend announcement effect in Indonesia Stock Exchange by comparing the market volatility around the dividend announcement date of the selected stocks in 2019 and 2020. Implication of dividend increase and decrease as well as stock–risk profiling is also added for further learning. This research used event study methodology as a tool to analyze the data of the 23 sample companies taken from the LQ45 index. The period of analysis is ranged from 10 days before the dividend announcement to 10 days after the dividend announcement date. The study discovered that in 2019, the capital market presented a weak response toward the event, indicated by the inexistence of abnormal return. Moreover, in 2020, the dividend announcement effect caused negative insignificant abnormal returns and the number of companies with low volatility increased, which implies that the stock market is more pessimistic during the pandemic period. Even when the dividend amount increased from the previous period, the market still shows a negative reaction to it in 2020.

Empirical Evidence on the Effect of Dividend Announcement on Stock Return

Empirical Evidence on the Effect of Dividend Announcement on Stock Return

Impact of Dividend Policy on Stock Price Volatility: An Empirical Study on Financial Service Industry of Bangladesh

The impact of dividend policy on stock price volatility is one of the most researched topics of corporate finance. This study investigates the relationship between stock price volatility and dividend policy among Bangladeshi financial service industry companies. Two key variables - dividend yield and dividend payout have been taken as the independent variables after controlling for firm size, asset growth, earnings volatility, long-term debt, and earnings per share. The stock price volatility has been taken as the dependent variable. Panel regression analysis is employed to explore the relationship of dependent with independent variables. Results reveal a significant positive relationship between stock price volatility and dividend yield among companies considered in this study. This study will help regulators and investors understand how the stock price fluctuates in response to financial information such as dividend announcements.

The impacts of IPO financing and monetary policy on economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from a dynamic assessment

The impact of dividend policy on stock price volatility is one of the most researched topics of corporate finance. This study investigates the relationship between stock price volatility and dividend policy among Bangladeshi financial service industry companies. Two key variables - dividend yield and dividend payout have been taken as the independent variables after controlling for firm size, asset growth, earnings volatility, long-term debt, and earnings per share. The stock price volatility has been taken as the dependent variable. Panel regression analysis is employed to explore the relationship of dependent with independent variables. Results reveal a significant positive relationship between stock price volatility and dividend yield among companies considered in this study. This study will help regulators and investors understand how the stock price fluctuates in response to financial information such as dividend announcements

Effect of Stock Split and Dividend Announcement on Trading Volume in Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

This study aims to determine whether stock spills and dividend announcements affect the trading volume of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2017-2019 period with a total of 14 companies. This study uses a quantitative approach. By using secondary data where data collection is at the IDX, Faculty of Economics and Business, Muhammadiyah University of Sidoarjo or from the IDX official website. Data collection is done by tracing financial statements, annual reports and audit reports, trading volume reports and previous journals. The results of this study state that partially the Stock split variable has no significant effect on Trading Volume, while the Dividend Announcement variable has a significant effect on Trading Volume.

Market Reaction to Dividend Announcements During Pandemic: An Event Study

This study analyses the difference in stock market reactions to dividend announcement during the pandemic. The thirty constituent stocks of Sensex, the index of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), is used for analysis. This allows cross-industry comparison of the market reaction. The study examines stock market reactions covering 44 days around the dividend announcement dates. The primary objective of this study is to understand whether the price adjustment linked to the dividend announcement news during the pandemic was different from the earlier years. This empirical study employs the conventional event study methodology using abnormal returns (ARs) to examine the stock market reaction to dividend announcement. The market reaction to dividend announcement was increasingly positive during the pandemic, compared to previous years. The statistical pooled t-tests showed there was a significant relationship between the pandemic and ARs. The findings also indicate that the difference in the market reaction to dividend announcement was more prominent in services stocks than that in manufacturing. Further, the results also verify the weak-form of efficiency of Indian stock exchange.

An analysis of cash dividend announcement effect: Evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange

An analysis of cash dividend announcement effect: Evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange

Do dividend announcements override the pandemic impacts? Evidence from the BSE 500 constituent firms

With a sample of 332 dividend announcements from January 2019 to December 2020, using the event study methodology with the market model, we provide evidence that the dividend announcements failed to influence the stock prices under the pandemic stress. Although the pre-pandemic period announcements significantly impacted the stock returns, the pandemic period dividend announcements failed to generate significant abnormal returns even for an increase in dividend over the previous year. The pre-pandemic period results are consistent with previous literature with significant returns for constant, increase, and decrease in dividends. During the pre-pandemic period, we also find the possibility of information leakage in the Indian stock market as the pre-announcement period is marked with positive significant abnormal returns while the post-announcement period seems to be profit booking. The industry-wise analysis reveals the presence of positive returns in the Information Technology, Media and Telecommunication sector. However, the rest of the results are in line with the previous analysis. The findings suggest that before making such announcements, the companies should wait for the market to recover; else, the positively impacting dividend announcement will fail to influence the stock prices when the market is already under pandemic stress. We conduct the first-ever study to examine the impacts of dividend announcements during a pandemic stress period with also comparing the impacts during the pre-pandemic period.

Trading Applications Using EVA Style Analysis

The authors apply economic value added (EVA) style analysis to four corporate actions: acquisitions, share repurchases, stock splits, and dividend announcements. Firms acquiring public targets provide significant shorting opportunities on value-destroying growth and “wise” restructurers. Acquiring firms with private targets provide longing opportunities on underinvesting and wise restructurers. For share repurchases, the authors find consistent alpha opportunities on repurchasing firms by longing their stocks, with the highest alpha on the wise restructurers. The post-announcement returns for stock splits were negative for value destroyers and positive for restructurers. For dividend increases, post-announcement effects are small except for positive alpha on the wise restructurers. For dividend decreases, negative abnormal returns continue for the value destroyers and restructurers. The best longing opportunity is on the stocks of share-repurchasing companies in a wise restructurer position, while the best shorting opportunity is on the stocks of dividend-decreasing companies in a value-destroyer position. For active investors, EVA style analysis illuminates the naiveté of a “one size fits all” trading strategy on corporate actions.

Evidence-based Stock Price Behaviour Around Cash Dividend Announcements in an Emerging Market Set-up

This article examines how stock prices behave following cash dividend announcements in the Indian equity market considering 3,671 cash dividend announcements during the period 2012–2019, using both aggregate-level and firm-level analysis. Further, the study investigates the factors that lead to the generation of abnormal gain or loss following dividend announcements. We found that cash dividend announcements generate abnormal stock returns in the Indian equity market immediately after the dividend announcement. However, this impact persists for a very short spell, and after that, the stock prices normalize gradually. Results also show that firms with a higher promoter shareholding gain less on dividend announcements. The empirical evidence of this study thinly supports the information signalling theory and dividend clientele theory in the Indian market.

Stocks Abnormal Returns and Rate of Dividend Announcements

The present research study examined the impact of different dividend rate announcements on stocks prices in the Indian stock market. Stocks selected from S&P BSE 500 index and study period from 2008 – 2017. The sample used for this study is 1755 pure cash dividend announcements (492 large-caps, 425 mid-caps, and 838 small-caps). Dividend rates are classified into six classifications to test the stocks' abnormal returns to different dividend classifications. Event methodology market model used to calculate Average Abnormal Returns (AAR) and Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CAAR). The results were observed twenty-one times based on market capitalization and dividend rate wise for a final dividend announcement. The results of the study are not the same for different dividend rate classifications and different market capitalizations. The study found positive abnormal returns on event day in most of the classifications, and it is similar to Litzenberger and Ramaswamy (1982), Asquith and Mullins Jr (1983), Grinblatt, Masulis and Titman (1984), Chen, Nieh, Da Chen, and Tang (2009) and many previous research results studied in major developed stock markets and emerging stock markets. Full sample and small-cap final dividend rate 100 percent to 199 percent average abnormal returns are positively significant, and other final dividend rate classification abnormal returns are positive in most of the observations, but returns are not significant. Large-cap average abnormal returns are more sensitive to different dividend rates, and small-cap reacts positively in all classifications. So, different market capitalization final dividend actions impact on stocks in India varies in different dividend rate classifications.

A novel ensemble deep learning model for stock prediction based on stock prices and news.

In recent years, machine learning and deep learning have become popular methods for financial data analysis, including financial textual data, numerical data, and graphical data. One of the most popular and complex deep learning in finance topics is future stock prediction. The difficulty that causes the future stock forecast is that there are too many different factors that affect the amplitude and frequency of the rise and fall of stocks at the same time. Some of the company-specific factors that can affect the share price like news releases on earnings and profits, future estimated earnings, the announcement of dividends, introduction of a new product or a product recall, secure a new large contract, employee layoffs, a major change of management, anticipated takeover or merger, and accounting errors or scandals. Furthermore, these factors are only company factors, and other factors affect the future trend of stocks, such as industry performance, investor sentiment, and economic factors. This paper proposes a novel deep learning approach to predict future stock movement. The model employs a blending ensemble learning method to combine two recurrent neural networks, followed by a fully connected neural network. In our research, we use the S&P 500 Index as our test case. Our experiments show that our blending ensemble deep learning model outperforms the best existing prediction model substantially using the same dataset, reducing the mean-squared error from 438.94 to 186.32, a 57.55% reduction, increasing precision rate by 40%, recall by 50%, F1-score by 44.78%, and movement direction accuracy by 33.34%, respectively. The purpose of this work is to explain our design philosophy and show that ensemble deep learning technologies can truly predict future stock price trends more effectively and can better assist investors in making the right investment decision than other traditional methods.

Investigating beta anomaly: comparison of Shariah-compliant and conventional stocks

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of dividend announcements on the stock return of Shariah-compliant and conventional stocks.Design/methodology/approachAn event study methodology is applied to study the beta anomaly. Market-adjusted return model, mean-adjusted return model and market model have been applied to calculate excess returns. Estimation period used in this study is 130 days, and event period consists of 21 days in total, i.e. starting from the day –10 “before the cash dividend announcement” to day +10 “after the cash dividend announcements.FindingsIt has been concluded from the results that dividend plays an informational role in the Pakistan Stock Exchange. As the investors in Pakistan react favorably to the dividend increase announcements and unfavorably to the dividend decrease announcements, they consider dividend increase announcement as good news and dividend decrease announcement as bad news.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study have several implications for different participants of the stock market, such as investors, academicians, researchers, fund managers and policymakers. They can use this information to make decisions while making efficient portfolios. Investors may get abnormal returns by focusing on the dividend announcement patterns. This can influence the attitude of investors toward efficient investments in the stock market and ultimately contribute to the betterment of society. This study is also beneficial for academicians and researchers, as it provides a comparative analysis of Shariah-compliant and conventional stocks and the anomalous effect of dividend announcements on stock return.Originality/valueLimited research in the world’s context and null is available in Pakistani context on the subject matter. The comparative analysis of “Shariah-compliant” and “conventional” stocks provides insight into the asset pricing of Shariah-compliant stocks that have not been explored earlier. This study also uses three different methods (mean model, market model and market-adjusted return models) to compare Shariah-compliant and conventional stocks

Signaling Hypothesis and Size Anomaly in Indian Stock Market

The dividend signaling hypothesis means that dividend change announcements send signals to the market about its prospects. Market capitalization anomaly or size effect means small-cap stocks variances and returns are different than the large-cap stocks. The sample was tested for dividend change announcement, and the sample was divided into large, medium, and small sample sizes based on the market capitalization of the stocks to test the size effect. Event methodology market model used to calculate the abnormal returns on the dividend announcement day. We found that dividends send signals to the market, and the market reacts positively to the dividend change announcements on event day (Aharony and Swary 1980, Litzenberger and Ramaswamy 1982, Dhillon and Johnson 1994, Below and Johnson 1996), but results may vary with the size of the company. Small-cap companies' variances are higher than the large-cap and mid-cap companies, and also small-cap variances are not equal to other variances results similar to Wong (1989), Bandara and Samarakoon (2002), Sehgal and Tripathi (2006), and Switzer (2010). Finally, we concluded that the dividend signaling hypothesis and market capitalization or size effect anomaly exist in the Indian stock market

Speed of Adjustment of Stock Returns Around Dividend Announcements in Pakistan

This study investigates the behavior of stock prices to identify the speed of adjustment of stock returns in response to dividend declarations in the 10 most lucrative sectors of the Pakistan stock market. The event methodology results show that the Pakistan stock market is a semi-strong efficient market since share prices do not adjust rapidly in response to new information.

Wealth Effects of Dividend Announcements on Bondholders: The Case of Taiwan Bond Market

Although bonds play an important role in U.S. capital markets, this financial instrument is less common in the emerging markets. Taiwan is a typical case. In fact, both bond issuances and bond transactions in Taiwan have been declining in the past years. Consistent with the previous studies, this research documents that wealth transfer effects exist between bondholders and stockholders. We hypothesize that this wealth transfer discourages investors from investing in bond markets because companies in Taiwan seem to care less about the interest of bondholders. Using the event study methodology, we examine the price change of bonds and stocks in Taiwan capital market around cash dividend announcements. We find that there are significant abnormal returns before cash dividend announcements from 30 days to 60 days and that there is insignificant price change of bonds during the three-day period around the announcement. Possible explanations of the results include low bond trading volumes, insider trading before announcements, and mixing signaling and wealth transfer effects. Although this study cannot prove that the results are directly related to management holdings, we tend to believe that insider trading somehow matters.

Corporate Announcements and Market Efficiency: A Case on Indian Capital Market

Capital markets being the backbone of the economy, are expected to be functioning efficiently. Efficiently-priced financial markets are considered a catalyst for the economic growth of the nations (Malkiel, 2010). Efficient markets are the reflection of security valuations. In an informationally efficient market, no one can beat the market and make abnormal returns based on the information because the information is instantaneously observed in the stock prices. The current paper analyses the market efficiency of three of the most popular corporate events, i.e., announcement of cash dividends, bonus issues, and stock split in the Indian context. The sample is 2253 pure cash dividend announcements (627 large-caps, 552 mid-caps, and 1074 small-caps), 152 bonus issue announcements (49 large-caps, 33 mid-caps, and 70 small-caps), and 181 stock split announcements (35 large-caps, 34 mid-caps, and 112 small-caps) were used for this study. Event methodology market model used to calculate Average Abnormal Returns (AAR) and Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CAAR).
 
 The results of the study have few findings which are contradictory to the existing literature on market efficiency. The cash dividend announcements have shown evidence for market efficiency, and results are contrary to Gupta et al. (2012), but the results are similar to Mishra (2005). Bonus issue announcements also have shown evidence for a semi-strong form of efficiency, test results identical to Dhar and Chhaochharia (2008), Kumar and Mittal (2015). Stock split announcements have not shown market efficiency, and the effect is similar to the study of Lakshmi and Roy (2012) and contrary to Chavali and Zahid (2011). Our results also support the premise that the emerging countries depict evidence of market efficiency (Bechev, 2003). Finally, we conclude that market efficiency results differ based on corporate announcements and market capitalization.

Seeking Alpha from Dividend Announcements: Big-Data Insights from Joining CAR and EVA Style Analysis

The authors conduct a big-data analysis to assess the pricing impact of dividend announcements. They join the traditional cumulative abnormal return (CAR) approach to estimating abnormal returns with economic value added (EVA) style analysis. The empirical results are significant for a sample of 172,481 dividend announcements during the 23 years from 1997 through 2019. For active investors, alpha-generating trading returns may be available by longing the stocks of dividend-increasing companies and shorting the stocks of dividend-deceasing companies. A notable finding linked to EVA style analysis is that alpha returns on dividend-increasing companies were available on the stocks of value-creating growth companies, the stocks of underinvesting companies, and especially the stocks of “wise contraction or cyclical restructuring” companies in need of a turnaround growth signal. Alpha returns on dividend-decreasing companies were available on the stocks of value-destroying growth companies and the “wise restructuring” companies. The authors also find significant dividend announcement CARs and potential alpha-generating trading opportunities across 10 S&amp;P-classified sectors. <b>TOPICS:</b>Security analysis and valuation, quantitative methods, big data/machine learning, performance measurement <b>Key Findings</b> ▪ The authors conduct a big-data analysis of 172,481 dividend announcements on stock returns in the 1997–2019 period. Their CAR findings on dividend-increasing and dividend-decreasing companies confirm both information signaling at time of announcement and the potential for alpha-generating trading returns (long–short) during the immediate days thereafter. ▪ Based on EVA style classifications, they find that alpha returns on dividend-increasing companies were available on the stocks of value-creating growth companies, the stocks of underinvesting companies with positive EVA (ROIC &gt; WACC), and especially, the stocks of “wise restructuring” companies in need of a turnaround growth signal. Alpha returns on dividend-decreasing companies were potentially available by shorting the stocks of value-destroying growth companies and the “wise restructuring” companies. ▪ They also find significant dividend announcement CARs, along with potential alpha-generating trading opportunities, across 10 S&amp;P-classified sectors.

Exploiting the dividend month premium: evidence from Germany

Dividend payments are firm events on a recurring and predictable basis. High returns in the period between announcement-date and ex-dividend date are the main driver for the so-called dividend month premium, which are positive abnormal returns in months in which corporations are predicted to issue dividend payments. In our empirical analysis of the German stock market, we find a robust dividend month premium, which is particularly high for stocks with positive dividend surprise. Knowing the dates of dividend announcements and payments enable portfolio managers to exploit the dividend month premium. Also taking into account tracking error and transaction costs, we show that simple portfolio-enhancing strategies lead to highly significant abnormal returns.