Shifts In Diversification Rates Research Articles

Detecting Shifts in Diversification Rates without Fossils

Studies of shifts in diversification rates and adaptive radiations are difficult when there are no fossils because past events cannot be inferred. The phylogenies of recent species, however, allow one to infer the patterns of past diversifications. I present a new method for estimating the diversification rate of a lineage, provided that a phylogeny of recent species, constructed, for instance, with molecular data, is available. This method was inspired by survival models and takes into account species that are not included in detailed phylogenetic data, provided that approximate dates of origin of these species are known. Likelihood ratio tests and Akaike Information Criterion make it possible to test for differences in diversification among lineages or groups of lineages and, thus, to evaluate adaptive radiation hypotheses. The present modeling approach can easily be extended to include temporal variations in diversification rates. A simulation study showed that the method is statistically consistent, avoiding Type I and Type II errors, and that it is robust to periodic or random fluctuations in the speciation rate. An example is presented with a composite phylogeny of primates.

Detecting Shifts in Diversification Rates without Fossils

Studies of shifts in diversification rates and adaptive radiations are difficult when there are no fossils because past events cannot be inferred. The phylogenies of recent species, however, allow one to infer the patterns of past diversifications. I present a new method for estimating the diversification rate of a lineage, provided that a phylogeny of recent species, constructed, for instance, with molecular data, is available. This method was inspired by survival models and takes into account species that are not included in detailed phylogenetic data, provided that approximate dates of origin of these species are known. Likelihood ratio tests and Akaike Information Criterion make it possible to test for differences in diversification among lineages or groups of lineages and, thus, to evaluate adaptive radiation hypotheses. The present modeling approach can easily be extended to include temporal variations in diversification rates. A simulation study showed that the method is statistically consistent, avoiding Type I and Type II errors, and that it is robust to periodic or random fluctuations in the speciation rate. An example is presented with a composite phylogeny of primates.

Shifts in Diversification Rate with the Origin of Angiosperms

The evolutionary success of flowering plants has been attributed to key innovations that originated at the base of that clade. Maximum likelihood methods were used to assess whether branching rate increases were correlated with the origin of these traits. Four hypotheses for the basal relationships of angiosperms were examined by methods that are robust to uncertainty about the timing of internal branch points. Recent hypotheses based on molecular evidence, or on a combination of molecular and morphological characters, imply that large increases in branching rate did not occur until after the putative key innovations of angiosperms had evolved.