Diurnal Temperature Cycle Research Articles

Atmospheric dust modeling from meso to global scales with the online NMMB/BSC-Dust model – Part 2: Experimental campaigns in Northern Africa

Abstract. The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Pérez et al., 2011) develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ) and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are well reproduced. The remaining negative AOD bias (due to underestimated surface wind speeds) can be substantially reduced by decreasing the threshold friction velocity in the model.

Porous Asphalt Pavement Temperature Effects for Urban Heat Island Analysis

Increased nighttime temperatures caused by retained heat in urban areas is a phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Urbanization requires an increase in pavement surface area, which contributes to UHI as a result of unfavorable heat retention properties. In recent years, alternative pavement designs have become more common in an attempt to mitigate the environmental impacts of urbanization. Specifically, porous pavements are gaining popularity in the paving industry because of their attractive storm water mitigation and friction properties. However, little information regarding the thermal behavior of these materials is available. This paper explores the extent to which porous asphalt pavement influences pavement temperatures and investigates the impact on UHI by considering the diurnal temperature cycle. A one-dimensional pavement temperature model developed at Arizona State University was used to model surface temperatures of porous asphalt, traditional dense-graded asphalt, and portland cement concrete pavements. Scenarios included variations in pavement thickness, structure, and albedo. Thermal conductivity testing was performed on porous asphalt mixtures to obtain values for current and future analysis. In general, porous asphalt exhibited higher daytime surface temperatures than the other pavements because of the reduced thermal energy transfer from the surface to subsurface layers. However, porous asphalt showed the lowest nighttime temperatures compared with other materials with a similar or higher albedo. This trend can be attributed to the unique insulating properties of this material, which result from a high air void content. As anticipated, the outcome of this study indicated that pavement impact on UHI is a complex problem and that important interactions between influencing factors such as pavement thickness, structure, material type, and albedo must be considered.

An alternative explanation of the semiarid urban area “oasis effect”

[1] This research evaluates the climatic summertime representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface temperature using the Weather Research and Forecasting System (WRF) over the rapidly urbanizing and water-vulnerable Phoenix metropolitan area. A suite of monthly, high-resolution (2 km grid spacing) simulations are conducted during the month of July with both a contemporary landscape and a hypothetical presettlement scenario. WRF demonstrates excellent agreement in the representation of the daily to monthly diurnal cycle of near-surface temperatures, including the accurate simulation of maximum daytime temperature timing. Thermal sensitivity to anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC), assessed via replacement of the modern-day landscape with natural shrubland, is small on the regional scale. The WRF-simulated characterization of the diurnal cycle, supported by previous observational analyses, illustrates two distinct and opposing impacts on the urbanized diurnal cycle of the Phoenix metro area, with evening and nighttime warming partially offset by daytime cooling. The simulated nighttime urban heat island (UHI) over this semiarid urban complex is explained by well-known mechanisms (slow release of heat from within the urban fabric stored during daytime and increased emission of longwave radiation from the urban canopy toward the surface). During daylight hours, the limited vegetation and dry semidesert region surrounding metro Phoenix warms at greater rates than the urban complex. Although prior work has suggested that daytime temperatures are lower within the urban complex owing to the addition of residential and agricultural irrigation (i.e., “oasis effect”) we show that modification of Phoenix's surrounding environment to a biome more representative of temperate regions eliminates the daytime urban cooling. Our results indicate that surrounding environmental conditions, including land cover and availability of soil moisture, play a principal role in establishing the nature and evolution of the diurnal cycle of near-surface temperature for the greater Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area relative to its rural and undeveloped counterpart.

Quantitative models of climate load and its effect in concrete structure

Natural weather changes due to diurnal and seasonal temperature and relative humidity cycles affect micro-environment of concrete; temperature and moisture content in the concrete fluctuate correspondingly with variations in the weather. At the same time, for concrete structures, the temperature and relative humidity in both the atmosphere and the concrete show obvious differences due to thermal conduction and pore structure densification of the concrete. Therefore, the temperature and moisture content in the concrete, which are defined as the micro-environmental indexes in the concrete in this paper, are main factors directly influencing concrete carbonation, chloride diffusion and the corrosion rate of steel bars. This paper mainly discusses the climate load based on natural weather and the effects of the climate load. The climate load includes the temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sun shine and rain in a natural climate environment. The effects of the climate load are the responses of the micro-environment in the concrete under action of the climate load. Firstly, the experiments on responses of temperature and relative humidity in concrete were carried out in an artificial constant climate environment; at the same time, the behaviors about thermal conduction and moisture diffusion of the concrete were measured and modeled. Thereafter, a method for predicting the responses in concrete under a natural climate environment condition was built. In present studies, the temperature and the relative humidity responses in concrete under a natural climate environment condition show obvious hysteresis characteristics. The research findings illustrate that the predictions of the rate of the concrete carbonation, the chloride diffusion and the corrosion of bar in concrete should be depended on the micro-environment and the predictions based on the natural climate environment are not appropriate.

Summer to Winter Diurnal Variabilities of Temperature and Water Vapour in the Lowermost Troposphere as Observed by HAMSTRAD over Dome C, Antarctica

The HAMSTRAD (H2O Antarctica Microwave Stratospheric and Tropospheric Radiometers) microwave radiometer operating at 60 GHz (oxygen line, thus temperature) and 183 GHz (water vapour line) has been permanently deployed at the Dome C station, Concordia, Antarctica [75°06′S, 123°21′E, 3,233 m above mean sea level] in January 2010 to study long-term trends in tropospheric absolute humidity and temperature. The great sensitivity of the instrument in the lowermost troposphere helped to characterize the diurnal cycle of temperature and H2O from the austral summer (January 2010) to the winter (June 2010) seasons from heights of 10 to 200 m in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The study has characterized the vertical resolution of the HAMSTRAD measurements: 10–20 m for temperature and 25–50 m for H2O. A strong diurnal cycle in temperature and H2O (although noisier) has been measured in summertime at 10 m, decreasing in amplitude with height, and phase-shifted by about 4 h above 50 m with a strong H2O–temperature correlation (>0.8) throughout the entire PBL. In autumn, whilst the diurnal cycle in temperature and H2O is less intense, a 12-h phase shift is observed above 30 m. In wintertime, a weak diurnal signal measured between 10 to 200 m is attributed to the methodology employed, which consists of monthly averaged data, and that combines air masses from different origins (sampling effect) and not to the imprint of the null solar irradiation. In situ sensors scanning the entire 24-h period, radiosondes launched at 2000 local solar time (LST) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses at 0200, 0800, 1400 and 2000 LST agree very well with the HAMSTRAD diurnal cycles for temperature and relatively well for absolute humidity. For temperature, HAMSTRAD tends to be consistent with all the other datasets but shows a smoother vertical profile from 10 to 100 m compared to radiosondes and in-situ data, with ECMWF profiles even smoother than HAMSTRAD profiles, and particularly obvious when moving from summer to winter. For H2O, HAMSTRAD measures a much moister atmosphere compared to all the other datasets with a much weaker diurnal cycle at 10 m. Our study has helped characterize the time variation of the PBL at Dome C with a top around 200 m in summertime decreasing to 30 m in wintertime. In summer, from 2000 to 0600 LST a stable layer is observed, followed by a well-mixed layer the remaining time, while only a nocturnal stable layer remains in winter. In autumn, a daytime convective layer shallower than the nocturnal stable layer develops.

Laboratory studies of perchlorate phase transitions: Support for metastable aqueous perchlorate solutions on Mars

Perchlorate salts, recently discovered on Mars, are known to readily absorb water vapor from the atmosphere and deliquesce into the aqueous phase at room temperature. Here we study the deliquescence (crystalline solid to liquid transition) and efflorescence (liquid to crystalline solid transition) of perchlorate salts at low temperatures relevant to Mars. A Raman microscope and environmental cell were used to determine the deliquescence relative humidity (DRH) and efflorescence relative humidity (ERH) of NaClO 4 and Mg(ClO 4) 2 as a function of temperature and hydration state. We find that the deliquescence of anhydrous NaClO 4 is only slightly dependent on temperature and occurs at ~ 38% RH. The DRH of NaClO 4·H 2O increases with decreasing temperature from 51% at 273 K to 64% at 228 K. The DRH of Mg(ClO 4) 2·6H 2O also increases with decreasing temperature from 42% at 273 K to 64% at 223 K. The efflorescence of both NaClO 4 and Mg(ClO 4) 2 salt solutions occurs at a lower RH than deliquescence due to the kinetic inhibition of crystallization. For all temperatures studied, the ERH values of NaClO 4 and Mg(ClO 4) 2 are 13% and 19%, respectively. These results indicate perchlorate salts can exist as metastable, supersaturated solutions over a wide range of RH and temperature conditions. Summer diurnal temperature and relative humidity cycles at low latitudes on Mars could allow the surface salts to be aqueous for several hours per day.

High‐frequency storm event isotope sampling reveals time‐variant transit time distributions and influence of diurnal cycles

AbstractHigh‐frequency sampling of stable water isotopes in precipitation and stream water during winter and summer storm events was carried out in a 2·3 km2 lowland agricultural catchment. During peak flows of monitored events, the responses of δ2H and δ18O were comparable and inferred the dominance (ca 70%) of ‘old’ pre‐event water. Transit Time Distribution (TTD) inferred by a gamma function were fitted (Nash–Sutcliffe = 0·8) and were also similar for δ2H and δ18O. However, the shape (α) and scaling (β) parameters were markedly different for summer and winter events. Consequently, when antecedent wetness was high, mean transit times were in the order of days; when drier, they increased to months. Moreover, while the responses of δ2H and δ18O exhibited similar gradual recovery to pre‐event conditions during winter hydrograph recessions, they differed dramatically on summer recessions. Time series analysis showed that δ2H isotope content was correlated with the diurnal cycle of air temperature, suggesting an evaporative fractionation pattern which could be reproduced by a temperature‐based first‐order autoregressive model. The heavier δ18O isotope showed no evidence for such diurnal variability. The study highlights the utility of high‐frequency stable isotope sampling to explore the time‐variant nature of TTDs. Furthermore, it shows that the time of sampling in a diurnal cycle may have crucial significance for interpreting stream isotope signatures, particularly δ2H. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Diurnally cycling temperature and ventilation affect young turkeys' performance and sensible heat loss

The goals were to elucidate the effects of ventilation rate (VR) coupled with exposure to constant 20 °C or to diurnal temperature cycling on young turkeys' performance and sensible heat loss (SHL). In three experiments male British United Turkeys (BUT), from 3 to 6 weeks of age, were exposed to constant 20 °C, or to 35/25 °C or 30/20 °C diurnal temperature cycling, all at 50% RH and with VR (expressed as air velocity (AV)) ranging from 0.8 to 3.0 m s −1. The 2nd and 3rd of these experiments included a positive control at constant 30 °C and VR of 1.5 m s −1. Weight gain, feed intake, and feed efficiency were measured or calculated, as appropriate; SHL was calculated from measured surface temperature, and plasma concentrations of triiodothyronine (T 3) was determined in the 1st experiment. Changes of VR at constant 20 °C did not affect performance, but total SHL increased significantly with increasing VR. Under the 35/25 °C regime a significantly higher BW was recorded, with a similar pattern of feed efficiency, when VR during the hot part of the cycle was 1.5 or 2.0 m s −1 than when it was 0.8 m s −1. In the 3rd experiment, BW in the 35/20 °C treatment was significantly lower than that of the controls. In all experiments, turkeys maintained body temperature ( T b) within the normothermic range, and SHL varied with VR. It can be concluded that although diurnal temperature cycling reflects the natural situation, exposing young turkeys to constant 30 °C combined with optimal ventilation might yield the best performance results.

The Todagin Creek landslide of October 3, 2006, Northwest British Columbia, Canada

The Todagin Creek landslide is located at 57.61° N 129.98° W in Northwest British Columbia. A seismic station 90 km north of the landslide recorded the event at 1643 hours coordinated universal time (UTC; 0943 hours Pacific daylight time (PDT)) on October 3, 2006. The signal verifies the discovery and relative time bounds provided by a hunting party in the valley. The landslide initiated as a translational rock slide on sedimentary rock dipping down slope at 34° and striking parallel to the valley. The landslide transformed into a debris avalanche and had a total volume estimated at 4 Mm3. An elevation drop of 771 m along a planar length of 1,885 m resulted in a travel angle (fahrboschung) of 21.3°. The narrowest part of the landslide through the transport zone is 345 m. The widest part of the divergent toe of the landslide reaches a width of 1,010 m. Landslide debris impounded a lake of approximately 32 ha and destroyed an additional 67 ha of forest. The impoundment took 7 to 10 days to fill, with muddied waters observed downstream on October 13. No clear linkage exists with precipitation and temperature records preceding the landslide, but strong diurnal temperature cycles occurred in the days prior to the event. The Todagin Creek area appears to have an affinity for large landslides with the deposits of three other landslides >5 Mm3 observed in the valley.

Prediction of temperature response in concrete in a natural climate environment

Natural weather changes due to diurnal and seasonal temperature and relative humidity cycles affect micro-environment of concrete; temperature and moisture content in the concrete fluctuates correspondingly with variations in the weather. This paper mainly discusses the temperature response in concrete. The temperature response of the concrete shows obvious hysteresis characteristics compared with the climate temperature variations due to the thermal properties of the concrete. The temperature in concrete is a main factor influencing concrete carbonization, chloride diffusion and the corrosion rate of steel bars in the concrete. To predict the temperature response in concrete in a natural climate environment, a model based on the behavior of the concrete’s thermal conduction was presented. A method for processing the climate temperature data was devised using the mathematical principle of extreme difference dissection; in this way, a temperature action spectrum can be formed. In view of the above mentioned studies, the corresponding temperature response in the concrete could be predicted. Comparisons between the prediction and the measurement of the temperature responses were carried out.

Diurnal cycle of precipitable water vapor over Spain

AbstractKnowledge of the diurnal cycle of precipitable water vapor (PWV) is very limited owing to the lack of data with sufficient temporal resolution. Currently, GPS receivers have proven to be a suitable technique to determine PWV diurnal variations. In this study, the annual and seasonal diurnal cycles of PWV have been obtained from GPS data for 10 locations over Spain. The minimum value of PWV is reached approximately at the same time at all the stations, ∼0430–0530 UTC, whereas the maximum is reached in the second half of the day, but with a larger dispersion of its occurrence between stations. The annual sub‐daily variability ranges from 0.41 to 1.35 mm (3–7%). The highest values are recorded at the stations on the Mediterranean coast, with a doubling of the values of the stations on the Atlantic coast or inland. The winter cycle is quite similar at all locations, whereas in summer local effects are felt strongly, making the diurnal cycle quite different between stations. The PWV mean diurnal cycle is strongest in summer and weakest in spring, with a sub‐daily variability of 1.34 and 0.66 mm respectively. Harmonic analysis shows that the first two harmonics can explain 97% of the variance. The diurnal (24 h) harmonic explains 85% of the variance, has mean amplitude of 0.40 mm, and the peak time is from early afternoon to evening. The semi‐diurnal (12 h) harmonic is weaker, with an amplitude of 0.13 mm, and peak time between 0400 and 1000 UTC. The diurnal cycle of temperature alone would be a proxy for PWV cycle during the night, but not during the daytime. The breeze regime is the main factor responsible for the phase lag between PWV and temperature cycles during daytime. No clear correlation between the daily cycle of precipitation and PWV has been found. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Assessment of numerical weather forecasts against observations from Cardington: seasonal diurnal cycles of screen‐level and surface temperatures and surface fluxes

AbstractThe performance of numerical weather forecasts made with the Met Office Unified Model is evaluated using near‐surface measurements made at a comprehensively instrumented site over the course of the annual cycle, with the aim of characterizing the forecasting system's generic behaviour in the surface layer. The study is focused on the seasonal diurnal cycles of the screen‐level and surface temperatures and the surface flux budget.High‐resolution versions of the model simulate seasonal composite diurnal cycles of the screen temperature to an accuracy of about 1 K, but appear to show a cold bias in the surface skin temperature by day and a warm bias at night, while underestimating the magnitude of the difference in temperature between the screen level and the surface, particularly in conditions of light winds and strong surface cooling.The consistency of the measured surface fluxes is assessed by deriving the full annual cycle of the monthly mean atmospheric surface fluxes. The measured surface flux budget at this site is closed to an accuracy better than 5 W m−2. Comparison of the modelled and measured fluxes shows that in spring and summer the modelled downward shortwave fluxes are too large, while the latent heat fluxes are overestimated. Copyright © 2011 British Crown Copyright. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Thermodynamic dissipation theory for the origin of life

Abstract. Understanding the thermodynamic function of life may shed light on its origin. Life, as are all irreversible processes, is contingent on entropy production. Entropy production is a measure of the rate of the tendency of Nature to explore available microstates. The most important irreversible process generating entropy in the biosphere and, thus, facilitating this exploration, is the absorption and transformation of sunlight into heat. Here we hypothesize that life began, and persists today, as a catalyst for the absorption and dissipation of sunlight on the surface of Archean seas. The resulting heat could then be efficiently harvested by other irreversible processes such as the water cycle, hurricanes, and ocean and wind currents. RNA and DNA are the most efficient of all known molecules for absorbing the intense ultraviolet light that penetrated the dense early atmosphere and are remarkably rapid in transforming this light into heat in the presence of liquid water. From this perspective, the origin and evolution of life, inseparable from water and the water cycle, can be understood as resulting from the natural thermodynamic imperative of increasing the entropy production of the Earth in its interaction with its solar environment. A mechanism is proposed for the reproduction of RNA and DNA without the need for enzymes, promoted instead through UV light dissipation and diurnal temperature cycling of the Archean sea-surface.

Objective Bias Correction for Improved Skill in Forecasting Diurnal Cycles of Temperature over Multiple Locations: The Summer Case

Abstract One factor that limits skill of the numerical models is the bias in the model forecasts with respect to observations. Similarly, while the mesoscale models today can support horizontal grid spacing down to a few kilometers or fewer, downscaling of model forecasts to arrive at station-scale values will remain a necessary step for many applications. While generic improvement in model skill requires parallel and comprehensive development in model and other forecast methodology, one way of achieving skill in station-scale forecasts without (intensive effort) calibration of the model is to implement an objective bias correction (referred to as debiasing). This study shows that a nonlinear objective debiasing can transform zero-skill forecasts from a mesoscale model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)] to forecasts with significant skill. Twelve locations over India, representing urban sites in different geographical conditions, during May–August 2009 were considered. The model MM5 was integrated for 24 h with initial conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (final) global gridded analysis (FNL) for each of the days of May–August 2009 in a completely operational setting (without assuming any observed information on dynamics beyond the time of the initial condition). It is shown that for all the locations and the four months, the skill of the debiased forecast is significant against essentially zero skill of raw forecasts. The procedure provides an applicable forecast strategy to attain realizable significant skill in station-scale forecasts. Potential skill, derived using in-sample data for calibrating the debiasing parameters, shows promise of further improvement with large samples.

Flux measurements in Cairo. Part 1: in situ measurements and their applicability for comparison with satellite data

AbstractCairo Air Pollution and Climate (CAPAC) is dedicated to the understanding of the urban energy balance in Cairo, Egypt, through measurements from space and at ground stations. The in situ measurements will provide a focussed insight into three carefully chosen microclimates (urban, suburban‐agriculture, and suburban‐desert) and provide at the same time ground‐truth data for satellite image analysis, which will expand the acquired knowledge into the spatial domain. In situ measurements were made during a field campaign in Greater Cairo from November 2007 to February 2008. In this study, the dataset of the CAPAC measurement campaign will be presented and analysed in terms of use for a remote sensing study. Measured variables complied with our expectations. The urban area featured a distinct nocturnal heat island. During the day the choice of reference station was responsible for the magnitude of the heat island. The diurnal cycle of radiative temperature at the suburban‐desert station clearly exceeded the one at the urban station, thus the urban setting seemed to have a better heat storage than the suburban‐desert. The stations also determined the partitioning of the turbulent heat fluxes. While in Cairo and at the suburban‐desert station most of the available energy was partitioned into the sensible heat flux, the suburban‐agricultural station maintained a high latent heat flux. The radiation and soil heat flux measurements proved to be applicable for comparison with remotely sensed data. However, the analysis of the turbulent heat fluxes showed that several constraints exist: measured fluxes tend to underestimate the actual flux and directional effects complicate the interpretation. An energy balance closure and footprint modelling is necessary to compare measured fluxes with satellite image retrieved products. Finally, turbulent fluxes are time averages, which is contrary to the remote sensing principle. Consequently, a direct use is problematic. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Diurnal cycle of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the east Pacific

A data set of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) extent and location in the eastern Pacific, 90°W–180°W, 0°N–25°N, is used to examine the diurnal cycle of cloudiness over the ocean. The data set was generated using a statistical model which utilizes 30 year, 3‐hourly infrared (IR) satellite data from 1980 to 2009. The ITCZ envelope of convection has a significant diurnal cycle across the whole domain, and the area of cloudiness “pulses” in extent, peaking in the afternoon. The diurnal cycle of brightness temperatures within the ITCZ changes from east to west, but generally there are two minima in mean IR, implying cold cloud is at a peak: one in the morning, 0600–0900 LST, and another in the afternoon, 1300–1600 LST. Decomposition of cloud top temperatures show that high cloud is at a maximum in the early morning and midlevel cloud peaks in the afternoon. Low cloud is at a maximum in the late evening (2200–0000 LST) and is immediately followed by increases in high cloud, suggesting that the deepest convective systems grow rapidly, within a few hours overnight. There are seasonal changes in the diurnal cycle of cloud top temperature, and it is suggested that colder mean temperatures are more likely in the afternoon when the ITCZ is more extensive. This is shown via seasonal changes and also by comparing El Niño years, when ITCZ is more present, to La Niña years.

Avaliação das previsões do modelo Eta na região da Serra do Mar (Estado de São Paulo), Brasil

Comparisons of Eta 5 km mesoscale model forecasts against observations in Cunha, Curucutu, Itanhaém, Paraibuna, Picinguaba, Santa Virgínia e São José dos Campos, located in Serra do Mar (SP) region, is carried out for 2008. The 2 m temperature, station level pressure, winds at 10 m and precipitation are evaluated for the 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecasts. The results show that the atmospheric pressure was systematically underestimated (overestimated) in Paraibuna and Picinguaba (Cunha and Curucutu), due to differences between the model's altitude and the real station altitude, although its diurnal cycle is well predicted, with two maximum (0 and 12 Z) and two minimum (6 and 18 Z), as observed. For atmospheric pressure, model's performance is better at the 48 h forecast. The temperature's diurnal cycle is very well predicted. The temporal correlation between forecasts and observations are very high, varying from 73 to 91%. In some locations it was observed that temperature was overestimated (near 3ºC in Curucutu and Santa Virgínia and 2ºC in Itanhaém), and that it was a systematic error. The temperature forecasted 24 h in advance is superior than the other forecasts. In general the model shows a tendency of underestimate (overestimate) the frequence of occurrence of calm (strong) winds. The wind direction is the most difficult variable to forecast due probably to the differences between model's topography and the real topography. Although the model shows the characteristic turning of the wind during the day caused by the daily warming. The total monthly precipitation is well predicted, although in Itanhaém, Paraibuna and mainly in Picinguaba the values are overestimated. The frequence of occurrence of rainy events (total daily precipitation < 0,3 mm) is overestimated by the model, although it is the best predicted category, with higher ETS, BIAS and Hit. The analyses shows that one of the model's source of error is related to its topography.

Evaluation of a Photosynthesis-Based Canopy Resistance Formulation in the Noah Land-Surface Model

Accurately representing complex land-surface processes balancing complexity and realism remains one challenge that the weather modelling community is facing nowadays. In this study, a photosynthesis-based Gas-exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) is integrated into the Noah land-surface model replacing the traditional Jarvis scheme for estimating the canopy resistance and transpiration. Using 18-month simulations from the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS), the impact of the photosynthesis-based approach on the simulated canopy resistance, surface heat fluxes, soil moisture, and soil temperature over different vegetation types is evaluated using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site, Oklahoma Mesonet, 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP_2002), and three Ameriflux sites. Incorporation of GEM into Noah improves the surface energy fluxes as well as the associated diurnal cycle of soil moisture and soil temperature during both wet and dry periods. An analysis of midday, average canopy resistance shows similar day-to-day trends in the model fields as seen in observed patterns. Bias and standard deviation analyses for soil temperature and surface fluxes show that GEM responds somewhat better than the Jarvis scheme, mainly because the Jarvis approach relies on a parametrised minimum canopy resistance and meteorological variables such as air temperature and incident radiation. The analyses suggest that adding a photosynthesis-based transpiration scheme such as GEM improves the ability of the land-data assimilation system to simulate evaporation and transpiration under a range of soil and vegetation conditions.

The Importance of Ice Vertical Resolution for Snowball Climate and Deglaciation

Abstract Sea ice schemes with a few vertical levels are typically used to simulate the thermodynamic evolution of sea ice in global climate models. Here it is shown that these schemes overestimate the magnitude of the diurnal surface temperature cycle by a factor of 2–3 when they are used to simulate tropical ice in a Snowball earth event. This could strongly influence our understanding of Snowball termination, which occurs in global climate models when the midday surface temperature in the tropics reaches the melting point. A hierarchy of models is used to show that accurate simulation of surface temperature variation on a given time scale requires that a sea ice model resolve the e-folding depth to which a periodic signal on that time scale penetrates. This is used to suggest modifications to the sea ice schemes used in global climate models that would allow more accurate simulation of Snowball deglaciation.

Cross-stage consequences of egg temperature in the insect Manduca sexta

Summary 1. An organism’s environment, particularly early in development, can profoundly shape its future phenotypes. While the long-term consequences of embryonic temperature are well studied in vertebrates, insects have complex life cycles that may uncouple temperature’s effects in one stage from physiology in the next. 2. This study examines how egg temperature affects insect performance across all subsequent life stages. We focused on the hawkmoth, Manduca sexta, and examined how egg temperatures affected hatching time, hatchling mass, larval growth, development time, head capsule size, pupal mass and adult fecundity. Eggs were exposed to either diurnal temperature cycles or a single heat shock; in both experiments, temperatures were within the range to which eggs are typically exposed in the field. 3. Although the consequences of egg temperature varied depending on the type of treatment, both cycling temperatures and heat shock affected egg development time and initial larval growth rate, which likely have fitness consequences for M. sexta in nature. In contrast, egg temperature had no persistent effect on any trait measured in later larval stages, pupae or adults. 4. Organisms with complex life cycles –Manduca has four distinct life stages and multiple larval sub-stages – may benefit from rapid compensation for poor early conditions. Additionally, the modularity of insect life cycles may help insects cope with environmental variability by insulating later stages from disturbances during embryogenesis.