Diurnal Cycle Of Precipitation Research Articles

Improved Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation on Land in a Global Non-Hydrostatic Model Using a Revised NSAS Deep Convective Scheme

Improved Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation on Land in a Global Non-Hydrostatic Model Using a Revised NSAS Deep Convective Scheme

Evaluation of the convection permitting regional climate model CNRM-AROME on the orographically complex island of Corsica

AbstractMeteorological processes over islands with complex orography could be better simulated by Convection Permitting Regional Climate Models (CP-RCMs) thanks to an improved representation of the orography, land–sea contrasts, the combination of coastal and orographic effects, and explicit deep convection. This paper evaluates the ability of the CP-RCM CNRM-AROME (2.5-km horizontal resolution) to simulate relevant meteorological characteristics of the Mediterranean island of Corsica for the 2000–2018 period. These hindcast simulations are compared to their driving Regional Climate Model (RCM) CNRM-ALADIN (12.5-km horizontal resolution and parameterised convection), weather stations for precipitation and wind and gridded precipitation datasets. The main benefits are found in the representation of (i) precipitation extremes resulting mainly from mesoscale convective systems affected by steep mountains during autumn and (ii) the formation of convection through thermally induced diurnal circulations and their interaction with the orography during summer. Simulations of hourly precipitation extremes, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, the distribution of precipitation intensities, the duration of precipitation events, and sea breezes are all improved in the 2.5-km simulations with respect to the RCM, confirming an added value. However, existing differences between model simulations and observations are difficult to explain as the main biases are related to the availability and quality of observations, particularly at high elevations. Overall, better results from the 2.5-km resolution, increase our confidence in CP-RCMs to investigate future climate projections for Corsica and islands with complex terrain.

High resolution Tibetan Plateau regional reanalysis 1961-present

With the rapid global warming in recent decades, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has suffered severe impacts, such as glacier retreat, glacial lake expansion, and permafrost degradation, which threaten the lives and properties of the local and downstream populations. Regional Reanalysis (RR) is vital for TP due to the limitations of observations. In this work, a 62-year (1961–2022) long atmospheric regional reanalysis with spatial resolution of 9 km (convective gray-zone scale) and temporal resolution of 1 hour over the TP (TPRR) was developed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, combined with re-initialization method, spectral nudging (SN), and several optimizations. TPRR is forced by ERA5 at hourly intervals. TPRR outperforms ERA5, realistically capturing climatological characteristics and seasonal variations of precipitation and T2m (air temperature at 2m above ground level). Moreover, TPRR better reproduces the frequency and intensity of precipitation, as well as the diurnal cycle of precipitation. This study also quantifies the wetting trend of 0.0071 mm/year over the TP amid global warming using TPRR.

Characterisation of the observed diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Maritime Continent

AbstractThis study investigates the temporal and spatial complexities of the mean diurnal cycle (DC) of precipitation over the Maritime Continent during the wet season using the Integrated Multi‐satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) data product and highlights systematic inaccuracies of amplitude and phase representation using the first diurnal harmonic (FDH). The first‐order nature of the DC of precipitation is already well documented, typically featuring heavy precipitation over near‐coastal land areas in the late afternoon and evening followed by maximum precipitation overnight over the surrounding seas, with offshore propagation evident in places. The DC is often described concisely in terms of an amplitude and phase based on the FDH parameters, however the omission of higher‐order components of variability results in the FDH parameters being poor indicators of the magnitude and peak time of diurnal variability in many locations. This study improves the accuracy of the amplitude and phase parameters by characterising the DC using two novel waveforms—a skew‐permitting waveform and a spike‐permitting waveform—which are constructed to characterise single‐peak cycles with rapid transitions more accurately. Key characterisation improvements include correction of a phase lag (averaging approximately 1 h) over near‐coastal land areas and capture of the short‐lasting but extreme peak in precipitation rate over Java which increases the amplitude by the order of 20%. The new skew parameter shows that locations close to coastlines experience rapid intensification and gradual weakening of diurnal precipitation, while there is a tendency toward gradual intensification and rapid weakening far inland and offshore. The new spike parameter shows that near‐coastal land experiences a brief and precisely timed peak in precipitation, whereas diurnal activity over inland locations is longer‐lasting and less precisely timed, and waters surrounding Java experience a precisely timed suppression of precipitation. Other potential applications of the novel waveforms used in this study are discussed.

Irrigation in the North China plain regulates the diurnal cycle of precipitation and regional water cycle

Irrigation in the North China plain regulates the diurnal cycle of precipitation and regional water cycle

Dynamic atmospheric mechanisms associated with the diurnal cycle of hydrometeors and precipitation in the Andes–Amazon transition zone of central Peru during the summer season

Dynamic atmospheric mechanisms associated with the diurnal cycle of hydrometeors and precipitation in the Andes–Amazon transition zone of central Peru during the summer season

Numerical Study on the Precipitation Concentration over the Western Coast of Sumatra Island

Abstract Large amounts of tropical precipitation have been observed as significantly concentrated over the western coast of Sumatra Island. In the present study, we used a cloud-resolving model to perform 14-day numerical simulations and reproduce the distinctive precipitation distributions over western Sumatra Island and adjacent areas. The control experiment, in which the warmer sea surface temperature (SST) near the coast was incorporated and the terminal velocity and effective radius of ice clouds were parameterized to be temperature dependent, adequately reproduced the precipitation concentration as well as the diurnal cycles of precipitation. We then used the column-integrated frozen moist static energy budget equation, which is virtually equivalent to the column-integrated moisture budget equation under the weak temperature gradient assumption, to formulate sensitivity experiments focusing on the effects of coastal SST and upper-level ice clouds. Analysis of the time-averaged fields revealed that the column-integrated moisture and precipitation in the coast were significantly reduced when a cooler coastal SST or larger ice cloud particle size was assumed. Based on the comparison of the sensitivity experiments and in situ observations, we speculate that ice clouds, which are exported from inland convection that is strictly regulated by solar radiation, promote the accumulation of moisture in the coastal region by mitigating radiative cooling. Together with the moisture and heat supplied by the warm ocean surface, they contribute to the large amounts of precipitation here.

Parameterization of the Elevated Convection With a Unified Convection Scheme (UNICON) and Its Impacts on the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation

AbstractTo improve the simulation of nocturnal precipitation, we develop a parameterization for the elevated convection that is launched from the level of maximum grid‐mean moist static energy, when grid‐mean vertical flow is upward at the launching interface. The parameterized elevated convection is forced by both cold pool‐driven and partially resolved external mesoscale organized flows. Properties of the external mesoscale flow are estimated from grid‐mean vertical velocity and three dimensional advection tendencies of temperature and moisture. The new parameterization is implemented into a unified convection scheme (UNICON) and tested for both the single‐column case at the Southern Great Plain (SGP) site in US and in global simulations. At the SGP site, the parameterized elevated convection strengthens nocturnal convection, increases nocturnal precipitation, and better simulates the observed diurnal cycle of precipitation. It appears that the elevated and surface‐based convections interact with each other by stabilizing the atmospheric column, which affects subsequent convection. Global simulation shows that the elevated convection mostly occurs over the continents during the night, and also over the oceanic mid‐latitude warm air advection and storm track regions during summer. Without degrading global mean climate, the elevated convection improves the simulation of nocturnal precipitation in the mid‐US but simulates somewhat strong nocturnal precipitation in northeastern Asia. It seems that a key to simulate observed nocturnal precipitation is to appropriately parameterize the impacts of external organized flow on the elevated convection.

How Can We Improve the Seamless Representation of Climatological Statistics and Weather Toward Reliable Global K‐Scale Climate Simulations?

AbstractToward the achievement of reliable global kilometer‐scale (k‐scale) climate simulations, we improve the Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) by focusing on moist physical processes. A goal of the model improvement is to establish a configuration that can simulate realistic fields seamlessly from the daily‐scale variability to the climatological statistics. Referring to the two representative configurations of the present NICAM, each of which has been used for climate‐scale and sub‐seasonal‐scale experiments, we try to find the appropriate partitioning of fast/local and slow/global‐scale circulations. In a series of sensitivity experiments at 14‐km horizontal resolution, we test (a) the tuning of terminal velocities of rain, snow, and cloud ice, (b) the implementation of turbulent diffusion by the Leonard term, and (c) enhanced vertical resolution. These tests yield reasonable convection triggering and convection‐induced tropospheric moistening, and result in better performance than in previous NICAM climate simulations. In the mean state, double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias disappears, and the zonal contrast of equatorial precipitation, top‐of‐atmosphere radiation balance, vertical temperature profile, and position/strength of subtropical jet are reproduced dramatically better. Variability such as equatorial waves and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is spontaneously realized with appropriate spectral power balance, and the Asian summer monsoon, boreal‐summer MJO, and tropical cyclone (TC) activities are more realistically simulated especially around the western Pacific. Meanwhile, biases still exist in the representation of low‐cloud fraction, TC intensity, and precipitation diurnal cycle, suggesting that both higher spatial resolutions and further model development are warranted.

Evaluation of precipitation across the contiguous United States, Alaska, and Puerto Rico in multi-decadal convection-permitting simulations

This study is an early effort to generate a multi-decadal convection-permitting regional climate dataset that covers nearly the entire North American continent. We assessed a 20 year dynamically downscaled regional climate simulation at a 4 km spatial resolution with explicit convection across the contiguous United States (CONUS), Alaska, and Puerto Rico. Specifically, we evaluated the model’s performance in representing mean, 95th percentile, and extreme precipitation across regions. Our findings indicate that when compared with ERA5 reanalysis, the forcing data, convection-permitting simulation improves representations of seasonal, 95th percentile, and extreme precipitation over a large portion of the CONUS, Alaska, and Puerto Rico, particularly in areas where precipitation is heaviest. The simulation adds value over its forcing data (ERA5) in up to 53% of all grid cells in the CONUS, 68.8% in Alaska, and 84.0% in Puerto Rico. It is important to note that, however, despite improvements, model errors in Puerto Rico remain large. Similar improvements are observed in extreme indices, including consecutive dry days, maximum 5 days precipitation, and extreme precipitation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of mean hourly precipitation suggests that representations of convective processes—including onset, dissipation, suppression, downstream propagation, and local circulation—improved overall.

Diurnal cycle of precipitation over the tropics and central United States: intercomparison of general circulation models

AbstractDiurnal precipitation is a fundamental mode of variability that climate models have difficulty in accurately simulating. Here the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP) in participating climate models from the Global Energy and Water Exchanges' DCP project is evaluated over the tropics and central United States. Common model biases such as excessive precipitation over the tropics, too frequent light‐to‐moderate rain, and the failure to capture propagating convection in the central United States still exist. Over the central United States, the issues of too weak rainfall intensity in climate runs is well improved in their hindcast runs with initial conditions from numerical weather prediction analyses. But the improvement is minimal over the central Amazon. Incorporating the role of the large‐scale environment in convective triggering processes helps resolve the phase‐locking issue in many models where precipitation often incorrectly peaks near noon due to maximum insolation over land. Allowing air parcels to be lifted above the boundary layer improves the simulation of nocturnal precipitation which is often associated with the propagation of mesoscale systems. Including convective memory in cumulus parameterizations acts to suppress light‐to‐moderate rain and promote intense rainfall; however, it also weakens the diurnal variability. Simply increasing model resolution (with cumulus parameterizations still used) cannot fully resolve the biases of low‐resolution climate models in DCP. The hierarchy modeling framework from this study is useful for identifying the missing physics in models and testing new development of model convective processes over different convective regimes.

Precipitation Diurnal Cycle over Tropical Coastal Regions Represented in Climate Experiments with a Global Cloud-System Resolving Model

Precipitation Diurnal Cycle over Tropical Coastal Regions Represented in Climate Experiments with a Global Cloud-System Resolving Model

Control of Low-Level Wind on the Diurnal Cycle of Tropical Coastal Precipitation

Abstract To understand how coastal precipitation is controlled by the low-level background wind, we performed comprehensive analysis using the 17-yr observations of the TRMM PR over the entire region of the tropics. We classified the data according to the direction (onshore or offshore) and strength of the cross-shore wind. Under weak winds, the contribution of the diurnal cycle to total precipitation is large, indicating that thermally forced precipitation with a symmetrical propagation pattern with opposite sign across the coastline is dominant. As the background wind strengthens, the contribution of the diurnal cycle reduces owing to the predominance of mechanical forcing; however, the effect of the diurnal cycle remains nonnegligible with an asymmetrical propagation pattern across the coastline. Using the linear theory of the sea–land-breeze circulation, we demonstrated that the difference in propagation is attributable to gravity waves excited by the land–ocean surface heating difference. Under weak winds, symmetrical diurnal phase propagation is caused by the two symmetrical modes of landward and seaward gravity waves. Under stronger background winds, in addition to the Doppler-shifted landward and seaward modes, waves propagating toward the upwind side in the flow-relative frame but with slow group velocity are advected to the downwind near the coastline, forming another mode that moves slowly in the downwind direction. The superposition of the three modes leads to asymmetrical propagation of precipitation with varying phase speed depending on the distance from the coastline.

Effects of Potential Large-Scale Irrigation on Regional Precipitation in Northwest China

Understanding the impact of irrigation on the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation is important for the ecological stability of the arid region of Northwest China (NWC). In this study, the global climate model MPI-ESM-MR is utilized to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional climate model RegCM4, enabling the simulation of the long-term climate of the arid NWC region under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The study focuses on analyzing the differences in the spatiotemporal distribution, intensity, and frequency of precipitation before and after irrigation. Furthermore, the study explores the primary factors influencing changes in the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of precipitation in the irrigation district and its downwind region. The results indicate that RegCM4 performs well in simulating the climatology and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the NWC, particularly excelling during the summer. Large-scale irrigation significantly impacts the structure of summer precipitation, leading to a notable increase in convective precipitation near the irrigation district and surrounding mountain ranges. Anomalous cyclonic circulation and enhanced vertical velocity enhancement provide dynamic conditions for increased precipitation in the irrigation district and surrounding mountainous regions. Furthermore, the evaporation of water vapor resulting from large-scale irrigation serves as an additional source of moisture, contributing to increased precipitation in the irrigation district and its downwind region. Due to the difference in climatic conditions between the western and eastern regions around the irrigated areas, the summer extreme precipitation in the west predominantly increases. At the same time, in the east, it predominantly decreases due to irrigation. The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of the physical mechanisms through which agricultural irrigation influences precipitation in the arid region of the NWC, thereby providing scientific evidence for the sustainable utilization of water resources in the region.

Diurnal cycle of precipitation over coastal sea and small islands in the eastern region of Sumatra including season and Madden Julian Oscillation signatures

The Barisan Mountains influence atmospheric circulation in Sumatra and surrounding areas. Yet, precipitation patterns in eastern Sumatra, especially along the coast, are poorly understood. This study examines diurnal precipitation cycles in coastal seas and small islands of eastern Sumatra, utilizing 2015–2021 IMERG Version 06 rainfall data, data from 21 island rain gauges, and ERA5 reanalysis data to assess precipitation through three parameters: precipitation amount (PA), precipitation frequency (PF), and precipitation intensity (PI). The diurnal cycle of PA and PF is more pronounced than PI. Distinct diurnal precipitation patterns emerge between coastal seas and small islands despite their shared east coast location on Sumatra. Coastal seas exhibit early morning precipitation peaks forming Sumatras squall, influenced by offshore Sumatra and Malay Peninsula propagations, accentuated by high wind speeds. Coastal shape, land topography, and Sumatra's island size also impact coastal sea precipitation. On small islands, rainfall peaks earlier (12:00–15:00 LT) with gentle winds, indicating local convection due to land heating dominance. In addition, the low-amplitude topography of Bangka and Belitung islands also increase rainfall, so PA and PF are higher on these islands than on other small islands. Seasonal analysis reveals rising PA and PF near the equator during the dry southeast monsoon (SEM), linked to the dominant Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Conversely, areas like Bangka, Belitung, and the South Coast of Sumatra, farther from the equator, witness higher PA and PF during the wet northwest monsoon (NWM). The South Coast of Sumatra saw a substantial PA increase during NWM, about 60% higher than the southeast dry period. Despite varying cycle amplitudes, peak times for PA and PF remain consistent across seasons. MJO analysis during NWM highlights heightened PA and PF amplitudes across eastern Sumatra, especially over equator-adjacent coastal regions and small islands, reaching 40–70% above non-active MJO phases. In summary, this research examines diurnal precipitation variations in coastal seas and small islands of eastern Sumatra, enhancing understanding of regional climate patterns and factors impacting precipitation cycles in the area.

Analysis of Precipitation Diurnal Cycle and Variance in Multiple Observations, CMIP6 Models, and a Series of GFDL-AM4.0 Simulations

Abstract The diurnal cycle of precipitation and precipitation variances at different time scales are analyzed in this study based on multiple high-resolution 3-h precipitation datasets. The results are used to evaluate nine CMIP6 models and a series of GFDL-AM4.0 model simulations, with the goal of examining the impact of SST diurnal cycle, varying horizontal resolutions, and different microphysics schemes on these two precipitation features. It is found that although diurnal amplitudes are reasonably simulated, models generally generate too early diurnal peaks over land, with a diurnal phase peaking around noon instead of the observed late afternoon (or early evening) peak. As for precipitation variances, irregular subdaily fluctuations dominate the total variance, followed by variance of daily mean precipitation and variance associated with the mean diurnal cycle. While the spatial and zonal distributions of precipitation variances are generally captured by the models, significant biases are present in tropical regions, where large mean precipitation biases are observed. The comparisons based on AM4.0 model simulations demonstrate that the inclusion of ocean coupling, adoption of a new microphysics scheme, and increasing of horizontal resolution have limited impacts on these two simulated features, emphasizing the need for future investigation into these model deficiencies at the process level. Conducting routine examinations of these metrics would be a crucial first step toward better simulation of precipitation intermittence in future model development. Last, distinct differences in these two features are found among observational datasets, highlighting the urgent need for a detailed evaluation of precipitation observations, especially at subdaily time scales, as model evaluation heavily relies on high-quality observations. Significance Statement High-frequency precipitation data, such as 3-hourly or finer resolution, provide detailed and precise information about the intensity, timing, and location of individual precipitation events. This information is essential for evaluating physically based numerical weather and climate models, which are important tools for understanding and predicting precipitation changes. We compared several global high-resolution observation datasets with nine CMIP6 GCMs and a series of GFDL-AM4.0 model simulations to evaluate the precipitation diurnal cycle and variance, with the goal of examining the impact of SST diurnal cycle, varying horizontal resolutions, and different microphysics schemes on these metrics. Despite the impact of these factors on the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle and variance being evident, our results also show that they are not consistently aligned with observed features. This highlights the need for further investigation into model deficiencies at the process level. Therefore, conducting routine examinations of these metrics could be a crucial first step toward improving the simulation of precipitation intermittency in future model development. Additionally, given the large uncertainties, there is an urgent need for a detailed evaluation of observational precipitation products, particularly at subdaily time scales.

Precipitation Diurnal Cycle Assessment in Convection-Permitting Simulations in Southeastern South America

Precipitation Diurnal Cycle Assessment in Convection-Permitting Simulations in Southeastern South America

Evaluation of multiple surface-, satellite-, reanalysis-, and WRF model-based gridded precipitation datasets over south-east Central Europe

This study intercompares precipitation from gridded surface- (E-OBS, CARPATCLIM) and satellite-based (CMORPH, GPM IMERG, TRMM TMPA, PERSIANN-CDR, CHIRPS) observational datasets, the ERA5 reanalysis, and WRF regional climate simulations with grid spacings of 50 km and 10 km. The evaluation is carried out for the Carpathian region (south-east Central Europe), covering the 2001–2010 and 1985–2010 periods. Area-averaged mean precipitation is compared on the annual, monthly, daily, and hourly scales over a low-altitude, flat subregion within the Carpathian Basin. On the daily scale, ERA5 agrees the most with the ground-based datasets (E-OBS and CARPATCLIM), followed by the satellite-based products (in order: GPM IMERG, TRMM, CMORPH, CHIRPS, and PERSIANN-CDR), and the WRF simulations. E-OBS displays consistently lower precipitation than the reference CARPATCLIM and most other datasets. Precipitation is considerably underestimated by CMORPH in winter and overestimated by PERISANN-CDR throughout the year, questioning their direct applicability in the study region. Conversely, TRMM and CHIRPS are reasonable complements to the ground-based CARPATCLIM in climate monitoring and model verification over the target area. However, the performance of the different observation-based data products is heavily region-dependent. WRF over- and underestimates spring and summer precipitation, respectively, compared to all observation-based datasets. The grid spacing reduction from 50 km to 10 km improves simulated monthly mean precipitation during the period dominated by large-scale weather processes (October to April) and the course of the diurnal precipitation cycle over the Pannonian Plain. Relying on individual observational products in model verification can potentially lead to false bias characterization. The diurnal precipitation maximum occurs 2 and 4–5 h earlier in ERA5 and WRF, respectively, compared to GPM IMERG. However, discrepancies between the CMORPH and GPM IMERG diurnal cycles prevent a rigorous evaluation of sub-daily precipitation from the model-based datasets.

Can Sub‐Daily Multivariate Bias Correction of Regional Climate Model Boundary Conditions Improve Simulation of the Diurnal Precipitation Cycle?

AbstractThe diurnal cycle is often poorly reproduced in global climate model (GCM) simulations, particularly in terms of rainfall frequency and amplitude. While improvements in the regional climate model (RCM) with bias‐corrected boundaries have been reported in previous studies, they assumed that diurnal patterns are simulated correctly by the GCM, potentially leading to inaccuracies in the maximum rainfall timing and magnitude within the RCM domain. Here we provide the first examination of improvements to the diurnal cycle, within a RCM domain, achieved through the use of sophisticated bias‐corrected lateral and lower boundary conditions. Results show that the RCMs with bias‐corrected boundaries generally present improvement in capturing both rainfall timing and magnitude, particularly in northern Australia, where a strong diurnal pattern in rainfall is prevalent. We show that correcting systematic sub‐daily multivariate bias in RCM boundaries improves the diurnal rainfall cycle, which is particularly important in regions where short‐term intense precipitation occurs.

Understanding the regionality and diurnal cycles of precipitation in the Lake Victoria Basin during Boreal fall

Understanding the regionality and diurnal cycles of precipitation in the Lake Victoria Basin during Boreal fall