Ice Thickness Distribution Research Articles

Contributions of Ice Thickness to the Atmospheric Response From Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss

AbstractA large ensemble of simulations from a high‐top atmospheric general circulation model are conducted to compare the atmospheric responses from loss of Arctic sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration. The response to projected sea ice thickness loss indicates substantial surface warming over the Arctic Ocean and up to 1°C of cooling in Eurasia. While the dynamic circulation response from sea ice thickness loss is smaller in magnitude, it has a similar spatial anomaly pattern as that due to sea ice concentration loss. This pattern resembles the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode. The simulations reveal that sea ice thickness loss enhances the thermodynamic and large‐scale circulation response from sea ice anomalies. These results stress the importance of considering a realistic sea ice thickness distribution in future atmospheric general circulation model sea ice perturbation experiments.

An Emergent Sea Ice Floe Size Distribution in a Global Coupled Ocean‐Sea Ice Model

AbstractSea ice is composed of discrete floes, which range in size across orders of magnitude. Here we present a model that represents the joint distribution of sea ice thickness and floe size. Unlike previous studies, we do not impose a particular form on the subgrid‐scale floe size distribution. Floe sizes are determined prognostically by the interaction of five key physical processes: new ice formation, welding of floes in freezing conditions, lateral growth and melt, and fracture of floes by ocean surface waves. Coupled model results suggest that these processes capture first‐order characteristics of the floe size distribution, including decay in the distribution with increasing floe size and basin‐wide spatial variability in representative radius. Lateral melt and floe welding are particularly important, with wave fracture creating floes at preferred sizes. The addition of floe size dependence to the existing model physics results in significant reductions in sea ice concentration, particularly in summer and principally due to floe size‐dependent lateral melt. The increased lateral melt alters partitioning of the melting potential, which reduces basal melt and increases sea ice thickness in some locations. These results suggest that including a floe size distribution may be important for accurate simulation of the polar climate system.

Thermodynamic and dynamic ice thickness contributions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago in NEMO-LIM2 numerical simulations

Abstract. Sea ice thickness evolution within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is of great interest to science, as well as local communities and their economy. In this study, based on the NEMO numerical framework including the LIM2 sea ice module, simulations at both 1∕4 and 1/12∘ horizontal resolution were conducted from 2002 to 2016. The model captures well the general spatial distribution of ice thickness in the CAA region, with very thick sea ice (∼ 4 m and thicker) in the northern CAA, thick sea ice (2.5 to 3 m) in the west-central Parry Channel and M'Clintock Channel, and thin (<2 m) ice (in winter months) on the east side of CAA (e.g., eastern Parry Channel, Baffin Island coast) and in the channels in southern areas. Even though the configurations still have resolution limitations in resolving the exact observation sites, simulated ice thickness compares reasonably (seasonal cycle and amplitudes) with weekly Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) New Ice Thickness Program data at first-year landfast ice sites except at the northern sites with high concentration of old ice. At 1∕4 to 1/12∘ scale, model resolution does not play a significant role in the sea ice simulation except to improve local dynamics because of better coastline representation. Sea ice growth is decomposed into thermodynamic and dynamic (including all non-thermodynamic processes in the model) contributions to study the ice thickness evolution. Relatively smaller thermodynamic contribution to ice growth between December and the following April is found in the thick and very thick ice regions, with larger contributions in the thin ice-covered region. No significant trend in winter maximum ice volume is found in the northern CAA and Baffin Bay while a decline (r2 ≈ 0.6, p < 0.01) is simulated in Parry Channel region. The two main contributors (thermodynamic growth and lateral transport) have high interannual variabilities which largely balance each other, so that maximum ice volume can vary interannually by ±12 % in the northern CAA, ±15 % in Parry Channel, and ±9 % in Baffin Bay. Further quantitative evaluation is required.

Spatially distributed ice-thickness modelling for Chhota Shigri Glacier in western Himalayas, India

ABSTRACTEstimation of glacier ice-thickness distribution is important for many glacio-hydrological applications such as runoff projections, glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) predictions, future evolution of glaciers. Varieties of modelling approaches are available for estimating ice-thickness distribution depending upon the data availability. In the present study, we estimated the ice-thickness distribution and total ice volume of Chhota Shigri Glacier using an optimally parameterized Glacier Bed Topography version 2 (GlabTop2) model, a shallow ice approximation (SIA)-based spatially distributed approach. Among the model input parameters, the shape factor (f), a non-measurable factor compensating for unaccounted effects such as valley shape needs to be calibrated using field measurements of ice-thickness. However, the lack of direct measurements of ice-thickness over many glaciers worldwide restricts model calibration and effective implementation. Therefore, to overcome this limitation, in this study, a novel approach using a relationship between shape factor, glacier cross-sectional width, and ice-thickness at the centre of a cross-section has been proposed and also tested to estimate optimal shape factor of the study glacier. Additionally, a detailed analysis of the effect of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) resolution and shape factor parameterization on the modelled ice-thickness estimates indicate that improving either the DEM resolution or calibrating the shape factor individually will not lead to improved ice-thickness estimates. In fact, both are necessary for better estimation of ice-thickness distribution. The high resolution DEM used in this study is TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement (TanDEM-X) DEM of 10 × 10 m grid size. Finally, a comparison of the results from a previous study where they used Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 90 m DEM indicates that the improved parameterisation of GlabTop2 model has led to a reduction in the error bounds of the estimated ice-thickness including the total glacier stored ice volume for the year 2013, which is estimated to be 1.74 ± 0.25 km3. Furthermore, based on the obtained results, it can be said that the GlabTop2 model combined with the proposed parameterization approach is having enormous potential to be applied over the wide range of data scarce Himalayan glaciers to quantify reliable ice-thickness estimates.

A novel differentiation sectionalized strengthen planning method for transmission line based on support vector regression

According to the ideas of risk assessment, the theory of support vector regression is introduced to forecast the ice thickness distribution and achieve the ice extreme value of the wire. Combined with the exponential function of failure rate when the line is under stress, the failure rate model of the line is established in the particular icing condition. The ice strengthening standard is developed by the icing thickness of transmission line, which is used to strengthen lines differentially. Especially, the lines that cross different meteorological conditions are strengthened by the method of segmentation. Finally, the method of economic assessment based on the total life cycle cost is improved, and the comprehensive failure rate is used to calculate differentiated “impairment” benefits. Different lines are made differentiated planning through the simulation example. Various economic indicators are comprehensively compared, in that case, economic assessment results of lines under different strengthening schemes are obtained, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed method.

The bedrock topography of Gries- and Findelengletscher

Abstract. Knowledge of the ice thickness distribution of glaciers is important for glaciological and hydrological applications. In this contribution, we present two updated bedrock topographies and ice thickness distributions for Gries- and Findelengletscher, Switzerland. The results are based on ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements collected in spring 2015 and already-existing data. The GPR data are analysed using ReflexW software and interpolated by using the ice thickness estimation method (ITEM). ITEM calculates the thickness distribution by using principles of ice flow dynamics and characteristics of the glacier surface. We show that using such a technique has a significance advantage compared to a direct interpolation of the measurements, especially for glacier areas that are sparsely covered by GPR data. The uncertainties deriving from both the interpretation of the GPR signal and the spatial interpolation through ITEM are quantified separately, showing that, in our case, GPR signal interpretation is a major source of uncertainty. The results show a total glacier volume of 0.28±0.06 and 1.00±0.34 km3 for Gries- and Findelengletscher, respectively, with corresponding average ice thicknesses of 56.8±12.7 and 56.3±19.6 m.

Quantifying Changes in the Gangotri Glacier of Central Himalaya: Evidence for Increasing Mass Loss and Decreasing Velocity

The status of Gangotri, one of the largest Himalayan glaciers, has been a matter of scientific debate and close scrutiny of the global hydrologic community. To comprehend the current state of Gangotri Glacier, we estimated it's geodetic mass budget and ice velocity using optical satellite data. The spatial distribution of ice thickness, using a laminar flow equation, and possible locations of glacial lake formation are also analyzed. The geodetic mass budget of Gangotri Glacier, estimated for the period of 1999−2014, yielded a value of −0.55 ± 0.42 mw.e.a−1. Substantial decrease in ice velocity is also noted for a nearly contemporaneous period. The average decrease in velocity for the 14 year (1999–2000 to 2013–14) observation period is computed to be 6.98 ± 6.53 ma−1. While the deceleration is less pronounced in the accumulation areas and along the tributaries, palpable slowdown (11.07 ± 6.53 ma −1) is observed along the main trunk of the glacier. The ice velocity maps produced are further used for computing glacier ice thickness and bedrock topography. Depressions in the bedrock topography are identified as potential sites for the formation of supraglacial lakes, as and when the snout retreats. In total, eight bed overdeepenings, with a maximum volume of $\text{56.57}\pm \text{8.93}\times \text{10}^{6}{\,\text{m}}^{3}$ , have been identified and demarcated as potential sites for lake formation. The results presented here highlight increasing mass loss and reducing velocity patterns of the Gangotri Glacier.

Sea-ice thickness in the coastal northeastern Chukchi Sea from moored ice-profiling sonar

ABSTRACTTime series ice-draft data were obtained from moored ice-profiling sonar (IPS), in the coastal northeastern Chukchi Sea during 2009/10. Time series data show seasonal growth of sea-ice draft, occasionally interrupted by coastal polynya. The sea-ice draft distribution indicates a slightly lower abundance of thick, deformed ice compared with the eastern Beaufort Sea. In January, a rapid increase in the abundance of thick ice coincided with a period of minimal drift indicating compaction again the coast and dynamical thickening. The overall mean draft and corresponding derived thickness are 1.27 and 1.38 m, respectively. The evolution of modal ice thickness observed can be explained mostly by thermodynamic growth. The derived ice thicknesses are used to estimate heat losses based on ERA-interim data. Heat losses from the raw, 1 s IPS data are ~50 and 100% greater than those calculated using IPS data averaged over spatial scales of ~20 and 100 km, respectively. This finding demonstrates the importance of subgrid-scale ice-thickness distribution for heat-loss calculation. The heat-loss estimate based on thin ice data derived from AMSR-E data corresponds well with that from the 1 s observed ice-thickness data, validating heat-loss estimates from the AMSR-E thin ice-thickness algorithm.

Sea-ice evaluation of NEMO-Nordic 1.0: a NEMO–LIM3.6-based ocean–sea-ice model setup for the North Sea and Baltic Sea

Abstract. The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea in northern Europe with intense wintertime ship traffic and a sensitive ecosystem. Understanding and modeling the evolution of the sea-ice pack is important for climate effect studies and forecasting purposes. Here we present and evaluate the sea-ice component of a new NEMO–LIM3.6-based ocean–sea-ice setup for the North Sea and Baltic Sea region (NEMO-Nordic). The setup includes a new depth-based fast-ice parametrization for the Baltic Sea. The evaluation focuses on long-term statistics, from a 45-year long hindcast, although short-term daily performance is also briefly evaluated. We show that NEMO-Nordic is well suited for simulating the mean sea-ice extent, concentration, and thickness as compared to the best available observational data set. The variability of the annual maximum Baltic Sea ice extent is well in line with the observations, but the 1961–2006 trend is underestimated. Capturing the correct ice thickness distribution is more challenging. Based on the simulated ice thickness distribution we estimate the undeformed and deformed ice thickness and concentration in the Baltic Sea, which compares reasonably well with observations.

How accurate are estimates of glacier ice thickness? Results from ITMIX, the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment

Abstract. Knowledge of the ice thickness distribution of glaciers and ice caps is an important prerequisite for many glaciological and hydrological investigations. A wealth of approaches has recently been presented for inferring ice thickness from characteristics of the surface. With the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment (ITMIX) we performed the first coordinated assessment quantifying individual model performance. A set of 17 different models showed that individual ice thickness estimates can differ considerably – locally by a spread comparable to the observed thickness. Averaging the results of multiple models, however, significantly improved the results: on average over the 21 considered test cases, comparison against direct ice thickness measurements revealed deviations on the order of 10 ± 24 % of the mean ice thickness (1σ estimate). Models relying on multiple data sets – such as surface ice velocity fields, surface mass balance, or rates of ice thickness change – showed high sensitivity to input data quality. Together with the requirement of being able to handle large regions in an automated fashion, the capacity of better accounting for uncertainties in the input data will be a key for an improved next generation of ice thickness estimation approaches.

Summer Enhancement of Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomalies in the September-Ice Zone

Because of its persistence on seasonal time scales, Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) is a potential source of predictability for summer sea ice extent (SIE). New satellite observations of SIT represent an opportunity to harness this potential predictability via improved thickness initialization in seasonal forecast systems. In this work, the evolution of Arctic sea ice volume anomalies is studied using a 700-yr control integration and a suite of initialized ensemble forecasts from a fully coupled global climate model. This analysis is focused on the September sea ice zone, as this is the region where thickness anomalies have the potential to impact the SIE minimum. The primary finding of this paper is that, in addition to a general decay with time, sea ice volume anomalies display a summer enhancement, in which anomalies tend to grow between the months of May and July. This summer enhancement is relatively symmetric for positive and negative volume anomalies and peaks in July regardless of the initial month. Analysis of the surface energy budget reveals that the summer volume anomaly enhancement is driven by a positive feedback between the SIT state and the surface albedo. The SIT state affects surface albedo through changes in the sea ice concentration field, melt-onset date, snow coverage, and ice thickness distribution, yielding an anomaly in the total absorbed shortwave radiation between May and August, which enhances the existing SIT anomaly. This phenomenon highlights the crucial importance of accurate SIT initialization and representation of ice–albedo feedback processes in seasonal forecast systems.

Surge dynamics and lake outbursts of Kyagar Glacier, Karakoram

Abstract. The recent surge cycle of Kyagar Glacier, in the Chinese Karakoram, caused formation of an ice-dammed lake and subsequent glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) exceeding 40 million m3 in 2015 and 2016. GLOFs from Kyagar Glacier reached double this size in 2002 and earlier, but the role of glacier surging in GLOF formation was previously unrecognised. We present an integrative analysis of the glacier surge dynamics from 2011 to 2016, assessing surge mechanisms and evaluating the surge cycle impact on GLOFs. Over 80 glacier surface velocity fields were created from TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement), Sentinel-1A, and Landsat satellite data. Changes in ice thickness distribution were revealed by a time series of TanDEM-X elevation models. The analysis shows that, during a quiescence phase lasting at least 14 years, ice mass built up in a reservoir area at the top of the glacier tongue, and the terminus thinned by up to 100 m, but in the 2 years preceding the surge onset this pattern reversed. The surge initiated with the onset of the 2014 melt season, and in the following 15 months velocity evolved in a manner consistent with a hydrologically controlled surge mechanism. Dramatic accelerations coincided with melt seasons, winter deceleration was accompanied by subglacial drainage, and rapid surge termination occurred following the 2015 GLOF. Rapid basal motion during the surge is seemingly controlled by high water pressure, caused by input of surface water into either an inefficient subglacial drainage system or unstable subglacial till. The potential lake volume increased to more than 70 million m3 by late 2016, as a result of over 60 m of thickening at the terminus. Lake formation and the evolution of the ice dam height should be carefully monitored through remote sensing to anticipate large GLOFs in the near future.

A Combination of Feature Tracking and Pattern Matching with Optimal Parametrization for Sea Ice Drift Retrieval from SAR Data

Sea ice drift strongly influences sea ice thickness distribution and indirectly controls air-sea ice-ocean interactions. Estimating sea ice drift over a large range of spatial and temporal scales is therefore needed to characterize the properties of sea ice dynamics and to better understand the ongoing changes of the climate in the polar regions. An efficient algorithm is developed for processing SAR data based on the combination of feature tracking (FT) and pattern matching (PM) techniques. The main advantage of the combination is that the FT rapidly provides the first guess estimate of ice drift in a few unevenly distributed keypoints, and PM accurately provides drift vectors on a regular or irregular grid. Thorough sensitivity analysis of the algorithm is performed, and optimal sets of parameters are suggested for retrieval of sea ice drift on various spatial and temporal scales. The algorithm has rather high accuracy (error is below 300 m) and high speed (the time for one image pair is 1 min), which opens new opportunities for studying sea ice kinematic processes. The ice drift can now be efficiently observed in the Lagrangian coordinate system on an irregular grid and, therefore, used for pointwise evaluation of the models running on unstructured meshes or for assimilation into Lagrangian models.

Impact of the ice strength formulation on the performance of a sea ice thickness distribution model in the Arctic

AbstractThe impact of a subgrid‐scale ice thickness distribution (ITD) and two standard ice strength formulations on simulated Arctic sea ice climate is investigated. To this end, different model configurations with and without an ITD were tuned by minimizing the weighted mean error between the simulated and observed sea ice concentration, thickness, and drift speed with an semiautomatic parameter optimization routine. The standard ITD and ice strength parameterization lead to larger errors when compared to the simple single‐category model with an ice strength parameterization based on the mean ice thickness. Interestingly, the simpler ice strength formulation, which depends linearly on the mean ice thickness, also reduces the model‐observation error when using an ITD. For the ice strength parameterization that makes use of the ITD, the effective ice strength depends strongly on the number of thickness categories, so that introducing more categories can lead to overall thicker ice that is more easily deformed.

Linking scales in sea ice mechanics.

Mechanics plays a key role in the evolution of the sea ice cover through its control on drift, on momentum and thermal energy exchanges between the polar oceans and the atmosphere along cracks and faults, and on ice thickness distribution through opening and ridging processes. At the local scale, a significant variability of the mechanical strength is associated with the microstructural heterogeneity of saline ice, however characterized by a small correlation length, below the ice thickness scale. Conversely, the sea ice mechanical fields (velocity, strain and stress) are characterized by long-ranged (more than 1000 km) and long-lasting (approx. few months) correlations. The associated space and time scaling laws are the signature of the brittle character of sea ice mechanics, with deformation resulting from a multi-scale accumulation of episodic fracturing and faulting events. To translate the short-range-correlated disorder on strength into long-range-correlated mechanical fields, several key ingredients are identified: long-ranged elastic interactions, slow driving conditions, a slow viscous-like relaxation of elastic stresses and a restoring/healing mechanism. These ingredients constrained the development of a new continuum mechanics modelling framework for the sea ice cover, called Maxwell-elasto-brittle. Idealized simulations without advection demonstrate that this rheological framework reproduces the main characteristics of sea ice mechanics, including anisotropy, spatial localization and intermittency, as well as the associated scaling laws.This article is part of the themed issue 'Microdynamics of ice'.

Sea-ice thickness from field measurements in the northwestern Barents Sea

The Barents Sea is one of the fastest changing regions of the Arctic, and has experienced the strongest decline in winter-time sea-ice area in the Arctic, at -23 +/- 4% per decade. Sea-ice thickness in the Barents Sea is not well studied. We present two previously unpublished helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) ice thickness measurements from the northwestern Barents Sea acquired in March 2003 and 2014. The HEM data are compared to ice thickness calculated from ice draft measured by ULS deployed between 1994 and 1996. These data show that ice thickness varies greatly from year to year; influenced by the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that govern local formation vs long-range advection. In a year with a large inflow of sea-ice from the Arctic Basin, the Barents Sea ice cover is dominated by thick multiyear ice; as was the case in 2003 and 1995. In a year with an ice cover that was mainly grown in situ, the ice will be thin and mechanically unstable; as was the case in 2014. The HEM data allow us to explore the spatial and temporal variability in ice thickness. In 2003 the dominant ice class was more than 2 years old; and modal sea-ice thickness varied regionally from 0.6 to 1.4 m, with the thinner ice being either first-year ice, or multiyear ice which had come into contact with warm Atlantic water. In 2014 the ice cover was predominantly locally grown ice less than 1 month old (regional modes of 0.5–0.8 m). These two situations represent two extremes of a range of possible ice thickness distributions that can present very different conditions for shipping traffic; or have a different impact on heat transport from ocean to atmosphere.

Ice accumulation and thickness distribution before inverted siphon

In winter, the safe operation and the water transfer efficiency of an inverted siphon are big concerns for water diversion projects in a high latitude area. This paper takes the Tanghe inverted siphon of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China as an example, and carries out experimental studies under the real ice condition with different water levels, flow discharges and submerged depths. The ice accumulation process and the ice jam thickness distribution before the inverted siphon are tested and measured. The characteristics of the ice jam distribution and the relationship between ti/H (ratio of ice jam thickness ti to total water level H) and Fri (Froude number under ice jam) are analyzed. An equation for the ice jam thickness calculation before the inverted siphon is put forward. Analysis results might help the thickness prediction and the ice jam prevention of similar water diversion projects during ice period.

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2): Science requirements, concept, and implementation

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission used laser altimetry measurements to determine changes in elevations of glaciers and ice sheets, as well as sea ice thickness distribution. These measurements have provided important information on the response of the cryopshere (Earth's frozen surfaces) to changes in atmosphere and ocean condition. ICESat operated from 2003 to 2009 and provided repeat altimetry measurements not only to the cryosphere scientific community but also to the ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric scientific communities. The conclusive assessment of significant ongoing rapid changes in the Earth's ice cover, in part supported by ICESat observations, has strengthened the need for sustained, high accuracy, repeat observations similar to what was provided by the ICESat mission. Following recommendations from the National Research Council for an ICESat follow-on mission, the ICESat-2 mission is now under development for planned launch in 2018. The primary scientific aims of the ICESat-2 mission are to continue measurements of sea ice freeboard and ice sheet elevation to determine their changes at scales from outlet glaciers to the entire ice sheet, and from 10s of meters to the entire polar oceans for sea ice freeboard. ICESat carried a single beam profiling laser altimeter that produced ~70m diameter footprints on the surface of the Earth at ~150m along-track intervals. In contrast, ICESat-2 will operate with three pairs of beams, each pair separated by about 3km cross-track with a pair spacing of 90m. Each of the beams will have a nominal 17m diameter footprint with an along-track sampling interval of 0.7m. The differences in the ICESat-2 measurement concept are a result of overcoming some limitations associated with the approach used in the ICESat mission. The beam pair configuration of ICESat-2 allows for the determination of local cross-track slope, a significant factor in measuring elevation change for the outlet glaciers surrounding the Greenland and Antarctica coasts. The multiple beam pairs also provide improved spatial coverage. The dense spatial sampling eliminates along-track measurement gaps, and the small footprint diameter is especially useful for sea surface height measurements in the often narrow leads needed for sea ice freeboard and ice thickness retrievals. The ICESat-2 instrumentation concept uses a low energy 532nm (green) laser in conjunction with single-photon sensitive detectors to measure range. Combining ICESat-2 data with altimetry data collected since the start of the ICESat mission in 2003, such as Operation IceBridge and ESA's CryoSat-2, will yield a 15+ year record of changes in ice sheet elevation and sea ice thickness. ICESat-2 will also provide information of mountain glacier and ice cap elevations changes, land and vegetation heights, inland water elevations, sea surface heights, and cloud layering and optical thickness.

Statistical Mechanics and the Climatology of the Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Distribution

We study the seasonal changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice, g(h), under climate forcing. Our analytical and numerical approach is based on a Fokker–Planck equation for g(h) (Toppaladoddi and Wettlaufer in Phys Rev Lett 115(14):148501, 2015), in which the thermodynamic growth rates are determined using observed climatology. In particular, the Fokker–Planck equation is coupled to the observationally consistent thermodynamic model of Eisenman and Wettlaufer (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:28–32, 2009). We find that due to the combined effects of thermodynamics and mechanics, g(h) spreads during winter and contracts during summer. This behavior is in agreement with recent satellite observations from CryoSat-2 (Kwok and Cunningham in Philos Trans R Soc A 373(2045):20140157, 2015). Because g(h) is a probability density function, we quantify all of the key moments (e.g., mean thickness, fraction of thin/thick ice, mean albedo, relaxation time scales) as greenhouse-gas radiative forcing, Delta F_0, increases. The mean ice thickness decays exponentially with Delta F_0, but much slower than do solely thermodynamic models. This exhibits the crucial role that ice mechanics plays in maintaining the ice cover, by redistributing thin ice to thick ice-far more rapidly than can thermal growth alone.

Distributed ice thickness and glacier volume in southern South America

South American glaciers, including those in Patagonia, presently contribute the largest amount of meltwater to sea level rise per unit glacier area in the world. Yet understanding of the mechanisms behind the associated glacier mass balance changes remains unquantified partly because models are hindered by a lack of knowledge of subglacial topography. This study applied a perfect-plasticity model along glacier centre-lines to derive a first-order estimate of ice thickness and then interpolated these thickness estimates across glacier areas. This produced the first complete coverage of distributed ice thickness, bed topography and volume for 617 glaciers between 41°S and 55°S and in 24 major glacier regions. Maximum modelled ice thicknesses reach 1631m±179m in the South Patagonian Icefield (SPI), 1315m±145m in the North Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and 936m±103m in Cordillera Darwin. The total modelled volume of ice is 1234.6km3±246.8km3 for the NPI, 4326.6km3±865.2km3 for the SPI and 151.9km3±30.38km3 for Cordillera Darwin. The total volume was modelled to be 5955km3±1191km3, which equates to 5458.3Gt±1091.6Gt ice and to 15.08mm±3.01mm sea level equivalent (SLE). However, a total area of 655km2 contains ice below sea level and there are 282 individual overdeepenings with a mean depth of 38m and a total volume if filled with water to the brim of 102km3. Adjusting the potential SLE for the ice volume below sea level and for the maximum potential storage of meltwater in these overdeepenings produces a maximum potential sea level rise (SLR) of 14.71mm±2.94mm. We provide a calculation of the present ice volume per major river catchment and we discuss likely changes to southern South America glaciers in the future. The ice thickness and subglacial topography modelled by this study will facilitate future studies of ice dynamics and glacier isostatic adjustment, and will be important for projecting water resources and glacier hazards.