City Size Distribution Research Articles

Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Exacerbate Environmental Pollution?—Evidence from Chinese Cities

Although the relationship between trade and environment has been widely discussed in past studies, trade policy has been in a state of continuous change in recent years. Previous studies have focused on the impact of trade opening or liberalization on the environment, ignoring discussion of the dynamic changes of trade policy. Therefore, it is very important to explore the connection between trade policy changes and environmental pollution for future environmental protection. In order to realize the in-depth study of this mechanism, the paper will try to solve the following three problems: (1) What is the relationship between change in trade policy uncertainty and China’s environmental pollution? (2) What is the mechanism by which trade uncertainty changes environmental pollution? (3) Due to China’s vast territory and regional differences, will changes in trade policy uncertainty have heterogeneous effects due to regional differences? To solve these problems, based on China’s accession to the WTO at the end of 2001, this paper, for the first time, uses PM2.5 concentration data of 246 prefecture-level cities in China to explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty on China’s environmental pollution, then we make an in-depth analysis of the impact path and heterogeneity of urban spatial distribution and city size. We found that, after China’s accession to the WTO, the growth rate of PM2.5 concentration reduced in cities with lower trade policy uncertainty and the inhibition effect was different due to the spatial distribution of city size. A further mechanism test shows that reduction in trade policy uncertainty can improve environmental pollution through industrial, structural and technological effects.

What do analyses of city size distributions have in common?

In this article, I conduct a textual and contextual meta-analysis of the empirical literature on Zipf's law for cities. Combining citation network analysis and bibliometrics, this meta-analysis explores the link between publication bias and reporting bias in the multidisciplinary field of quantitative urban studies. To complement a set of metadata already available, I collect the full-texts and reference lists of 66 scientific articles published in English and construct similarity networks of the terms they use as well as of the references and disciplines they cite. I use these networks as explanatory variables in a model of the similarity network of the distribution of Zipf estimates reported in the 66 articles. I find that the proximity in words frequently used by authors correlates positively with their tendency to report similar values and dispersion of Zipf estimates. The reference framework of articles also plays a role, as articles which cite similar references tend to report similar average values of Zipf estimates. As a complement to previous meta-analyses, the present approach sheds light on the scientific text and context mobilized to report on city size distributions. It allows to identified gaps in the corpus and potentially overlooked articles. It confirms the relationship between publication and reporting biases.

Size distribution of states, counties, and cities in the USA: New inequality form information

In this article, we propose a new approach for studying the patterns of size distribution in settlement systems, based on the analysis of the shape of the Pareto curve (PC). To study the shape of the PC, we used the Gini coefficient, the asymmetry coefficient, and, by analogy with the physics of phase transitions, critical exponent — the index of the PC degree in the neighborhood of zero. An empirical analysis of the PC of various levels of aggregation in the US settlement system has been performed. The form of size distribution of states was studied by decades from 1790 to 2010. The spatial analysis of the PC shape for counties and cities was performed for 2010. The results of an empirical study showed that the PC of the states had left-hand asymmetry over 220 years. The PC of counties and cities had both right-hand and left-hand asymmetries. The obtained results explain in which cases the Pareto distribution having a PC with right-hand asymmetry, and the lognormal distribution with a symmetric PC may not correspond objectively to real settlement systems. As an alternative to power-series distribution and lognormal distribution, we considered an analytically simple two-parameter model with a wide range of PC asymmetry that combines the properties of power-series distribution and lognormal distribution. Verification of the model showed that it adequately described the size of settlements in homogeneous settlement systems.

The form and evolution of city size distribution and urban growth model in China: An analysis based on Zipf’s Law and Gibrat’s Law

The form and evolution of city size distribution and urban growth model in China: An analysis based on Zipf’s Law and Gibrat’s Law

Basins of attraction around large cities - A study of urban interaction spaces in Europe

The geographic dispersion and size distribution of cities seem, at first glance, to exhibit a random pattern. Clearly, physical geography, geo-political history and climatology shape irregular constraints and forms in the global pattern of urban evolution, so that an entirely regular spatial picture of cities and their interactions in space is not plausible. In the history of urban geography, regional science and spatial planning, several attempts have been undertaken to identify or derive organised or stylised structures in the seemingly chaotic system of real-world settlements. Examples are Central Place Theory, the Tinbergen-Bos models of hierarchical spatial systems, or Tellier's topo-dynamic corridors. The present paper seeks to offer a stylised and quantitative depiction of the relative spatial positions and spheres of influence of 14 large European cities in a geo-gravitational force field, based on detailed data on an extensive set of multidimensional indicators from the multi-annual GPCI (Global Power City Index) data set. Assuming an interconnected urban network, the paper tests and maps out the existence of gravitational interactions between urban agglomerations by producing impact fields of spatial attractors (basins of attraction) in the European urban system. This approach forms an illustration of the emerging Systemic Economic Geography (SEG). Given the multi-annual nature of our data, we address particularly the complex urban field dynamics using the principle of gravitational interactions. The dynamics of individual urban agglomerations is calculated and mapped out using Newton's second law of motion for a study on fractal geometry.This ‘neo-Newtonian’ approach is able to trace spatial spheres of influence of urban agglomerations, while the underlying algorithm allows to test the factors responsible for spatial resistance or geographic frictions. In this way, we can delineate the contours of a stylised map for the gravitational fields of cities with different size, distance frictions and geographical locations. The paper addresses in particular the effect of generalized friction parameters for a set of pluriform urban key characteristics on the gravitational urban arena in Europe. It turns out that size, relative spatial position, spatial friction and multidimensional urban moderator variables are responsible for the emergence of a complex and often disorganised urban spatial interaction field. Our analysis frames in a nutshell the principles of spatial attractors in the urban geography of our world, and of Europe in particular. Such ‘virtual reality’ experiments shed light on the dynamic complexity of urban systems.

The distribution of city sizes in Turkey: A failure of Zipf’s law due to concavity

AbstractThe linearity of the distribution of city sizes is often assumed in the existing literature. Although different functional forms were tried, almost all of them impose a certain functional shape. In this study, we investigate the urban hierarchy and Zipf’s law using data for 973 Turkish subprovincial cities in 2019. We contribute to the literature in several ways. We force no definite functional form to observe the natural shape and employ nonparametric and quadratic regressions. We incorporate formal procedures of spatial dependence in regression models. We demonstrate that the linear model overestimates the Pareto exponent for small cities and underestimates it for bigger cities. We show that city sizes are unevenly distributed in Turkey. The rank–size rule is not valid in Turkey, either above or below a certain city‐size truncation level. Thus, the Pareto exponent estimated from the linear model is not a reliable indicator as quadratic regressions perform much better.

Family names, city size distributions and residential differentiation in Great Britain, 1881–1901

Cities have specialised in particular urban functions throughout history, with consequential implications for urban and regional patterns of economic and social change. This specialisation takes place within overall national city size distributions and is manifest in different but often similarly variegated residential structures. Here we develop a novel and consistent methodological approach for measuring macro-scale city size and micro-scale residential differentiation using individual digital census records for the period 1881–1901. The use of family names and neighbourhood classification of dominant economic and social roles makes it possible to relate the changing city size distribution in Great Britain to patterns of urban growth and residential differentiation within urban areas. Together, we provide an integrated and consistent methodology that links the classification of all major urban area growth in Great Britain to attendant intra-urban geodemographic changes in urban residential structures. We suggest ways in which this manifests social and economic change across the settlement system for both new and long-established residents.

Urban Systems: Understanding and Predicting the Spatial Distribution of China's Population

AbstractWith urbanization and population migration, some Chinese cities fall into decline whereas others prosper. Using nighttime light data, we redefine the city based on economic function and evaluate the city size distribution in representative countries. The results provide evidence not only for Zipf's law, but also for a distortion in China's current city size distribution. This study proposes a feasible method to predict urban population distribution based on the role of geographical factors in regional development, following the idea of spatial equilibrium. This prediction suggests that the divergence of city size in China tends to be pronounced, with inter‐regional income disparity being narrowed and the city size distribution following Zipf's law. The Chinese government should further relax restrictions on population inflow into large cities and prepare for more migration in the future.

Can the internet reshape the national city size distribution? Cross‐country evidence

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of the internet on city size distribution at a global level based on city identification in nearly 100 countries. The results show that the internet first promotes the decentralization of the national city size distribution and then promotes the concentration with an increase in the internet penetration rate. These results differ from those found in the existing literature and help deepen the understanding of the internet's impact on city size distribution by providing new evidence with more reliable data and unified city definitions. The findings also have important policy implications for predicting population distribution and planning human habitations at the national level.

Did Zipf's Law hold for Chinese cities and why? Evidence from multi-source data

The New Form of Urbanization was proposed in 2012, emphasizing the development of small and medium-sized cities and towns. Analyzing the city-size distribution is significant in various studies, such as urban sustainable development, urban planning, population movement dynamics, and policy making in urban issues. But there lacks systematic analysis and mechanism discussion covering all cities sample especially after 2012 because of statistical data missing. This study assessed the city-size distribution of 337 cities (administratively defined) across Chinese mainland from 2013 to 2018 using multi-source data. Four main procedures are involved: 1) the urban areas of 337 cities were extracted using Head/tail Division Approach from remotely sensed nighttime light imagery; 2) the urban patterns were explored using spatiotemporal analysis (Kernel Density Estimation); 3) ln(rank) and ln(rank-1/2) were used as dependent variable to estimate Pareto exponent respectively; and 4) the economical mechanisms were explored using robust estimates. The results indicated that:1) The second mean of pixel values of NPP/VIIRS data was recommended to be the cut-off for the identification of urban areas in Chinese mainland, comparing to 1% National Population Sample Survey of 2015 and master plans of typical cities. 2) Using the total nighttime light (TNL) of urban areas to measure the city size, Zipf's Law was mostly violated in Chinese mainland. Overall, urban system was unequally distributed in all cities sample, equally distributed in upper-tail cities sample, showed great heterogeneity in provincial cities sample, meanwhile small and medium-sized cities developed rapidly after 2012. 3) Provinces with the larger value of regional scale and industrial structure were characterized as the more evenness of the city-size distribution, but with the larger value of trading level were characterized by unevenly distributed urban systems. The findings of the study indicated that the discussion about the applicability of Zipf's Law in Chinese mainland using multi-source data was of great significance, and the change of urban system in China is greatly affected by policies.

The distribution of urban population and economic activity in the European Union and the United States

This letter compares the distribution of urban population and economic activity in the European Union and the United States. Economic activity, proxied with nighttime lights, is more unevenly distributed than population, especially in Europe. This reflects that more population does not necessarily imply a higher level of economic activity. Both Zipf's law and a Pareto distribution are rejected for aggregate nighttime lights within urban extents. Therefore, alternative specifications are required for the distribution of city sizes in terms of economic activity.

Ubiquitous digital technologies and spatial structure; an update.

This paper examines the impact of widespread adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) on urban structure worldwide. Has it offset agglomeration benefits and led to more dispersed spatial structures, or has it strengthened urban externalities and thus resulted in more concentrated spatial structures? Theoretical and empirical studies on this question have produced contradictory findings. The present study recognizes that assumptions made earlier about the evolution of technological capabilities do not necessarily hold today. As cutting-edge digital technologies have matured considerably, a fresh look at this question is called for. The paper addresses this issue by means of several data sets using instrumental variable methods. One is the UN data on Urban Settlements with more than 300, 000 inhabitants. Estimation methods with these data show that increased adoption of ICT has resulted in national urban systems that are less uniform in terms of city sizes and are characterized by higher population concentrations in larger cities, when concentration is proxied the Pareto (Zipf) coefficient for national city size distributions. Two, is disaggregated data for the urban systems of the US, defined as Micropolitan and Metropolitan Areas, and for the UK, defined as Built-up Areas in England and Wales, respectively. These data allow for the impacts to be studied for cities smaller than those included in the cross-country data. Increased internet usage improved a city’s ranking in the US urban system. Similarly, increased download speed improves a built-up area’s ranking in England and Wales.

Economic Aspects of Settlement in the Oasis of Bukhara, Uzbekistan: An Archaeo-Economic Approach

This paper focuses on the new approach studying variations in city size and the impact that the Silk Road had on the structure of cities, demonstrated through the study of economic aspects of the Bukhara oasis. We use archaeological data, compare the ancient economy to modern ones, use modern economic theory and methods to understand ancient society, and use what we have learned about the ancient economy to understand modern economies better. In sum, we explore the past through the present and the latter through the former. Our main finding is the generation of models able to answer to the city-size distribution in different territories, comparing them between the past and the present. This study first revealed that, through Zipf's Law, we found similarities between modern post-Industrial Revolution and medieval economics. Secondly, we also found that in ancient times the structure of the city was linked with the local economic demand. We have demonstrated this through the study of cities along the Silk Road.

Intra-Urban Scaling Properties Examined by Automatically Extracted City Hotspots from Street Data and Nighttime Light Imagery

A country can be well-comprehended through its core cities. Similarly, we can learn about a city from its hotspots, as they manifest the concentration of urban infrastructures and human activities. Following this philosophy, this paper studies the intra-urban form and function from a complexity science perspective by exploring the power law distribution of hotspot sizes and related socio-economic attributes. To detect hotspots, we rely on spatial clustering of geospatial big data sets, including street data from OpenStreetMap platform and nighttime light (NTL) data from the visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS) imagery. Unlike conventional spatial units, which are imposed by governments or authorities (such as census block), the delineation of hotspots is done in a totally bottom-up manner and, more importantly, can help us examine precisely the scaling pattern of urban morphological and functional aspects. This results in two types of urban hotspots—street-based and NTL-based hotspots—being generated across 20 major cities in China. We find that Zipf’s law of hotspot sizes (both types) holds remarkably well for each city, as do the city-size distributions at the country level, indicating a statistically self-similar structure of geographic space. We further find that the urban scaling law can be effectively detected when using NTL-based hotspots as basic units. Furthermore, the comparison between two types of hotspots enables us to gain in-depth insights of urban planning and urban economic development.

Economic Transition and the Evolution of City-Size Distribution of China’s Urban System

The evolution of city size distribution in China has gained a great deal of scholarly attention. However, little is known about the effect of economic transition on the reorganization of city size distribution in China. Using an urban hierarchy with cascade structure model, we decompose Zipf’s law into two exponential functions that provide a new way of examining the dynamic processes of urban system evolution. This study aims to investigate the dominating latent forces that affect China’s city size distribution through mathematical modeling of the hierarchical scaling laws based on census data of 1982, 1990, 2000, and 2010. A number of features of China’s city size distribution are found. First, the size distribution of Chinese cities displayed a clear trend of evolving toward the Zipf distribution, which is the result of economic transition from planned to market. Second, the rank-size pattern still deviates slightly from the standard Zipf distribution, as indicated by the narrow scaling range and departure of the scaling exponent from the theoretically expected value. We argue that the top-down state regulation is a critical cause of deviation of China’s city size distribution from Zipf’s law.

Does decentralization of governance promote urban diversity? Evidence from Spain

ABSTRACT The worldwide trend to decentralize the responsibilities and budgets of governments impacts regional economies in various ways. We use the example of Spain to test empirically whether the decentralization of governance is an important determinant of the sectoral composition of cities in an urban system. Our regression results, exploiting unique firm-level and time-varying transport-cost data, support the hypothesis that governance decentralization and the establishment of regional government headquarters in specific cities have been conducive to a more diverse urban economic structure and a more even city-size distribution in the Spanish urban system during a period of continuous reductions in transport costs.

Does China's City-Size Distribution Present a Flat Distribution Trend? A Socioeconomic and Spatial Size Analysis From DMSP-OLS Nighttime Light Data

Inconsistent measurements of city-size and a lack of time-series information on urban socioeconomic development have hindered determining whether China's city-size distribution (CD) follows a Pareto distribution according to multiple perspectives. This article has attempted to evaluate China's CD based on the defense meteorological satellite program- operational line-scan system (DMSP-OLS) nighttime light data in terms of socioeconomic size (SS) and spatial size (SC). First, city size was defined from the DMSP-OLS data. Then, whether China's CD followed a Pareto distribution was evaluated from different perspectives. The results show that China's CD from 1995 to 2015 presents a flat distribution trend; the flat distribution trend of the SC is more obvious than that of the SS; “borrowed size” has become an important reason for the flat trend of China's CD; and residential suburbanization, transportation cost reductions, local government policies, and land finances could effectively explain the CD differences in the flat trends between the SS and SC. This article offers an effective means for quantifying and comparing CD in long time series at a large scale (e.g., national scale or regional scale) and provides a scientific decision basis for governments to build a reasonable CD system in China.

Non-Maxwellian Kinetic Modelling of City Size Distribution

To extend the kinetic formulation of city size distribution introduced in [1], the non-Maxwellian kinetic modeling is introduced in the present study, in which a variable collision kernel is used in the underlying kinetic equation of Boltzmann type. By resorting to the well-known grazing asymptotic, a kinetic Fokker-Planck counterpart is obtained. The equilibrium of the Fokker-Planck equation belongs to the class of generalized Gamma distributions. Numerical test shows good fit of the generalized Gamma distribution with the city size distribution of China.

Comparing city size distributions: Population vs. economic activity

Comparing city size distributions: Population vs. economic activity

Spatio-temporal change and influencing factors of city size distribution: Global empirical research based on LandScan data

Spatio-temporal change and influencing factors of city size distribution: Global empirical research based on LandScan data