Distribution Of Caribou Research Articles

Development and validation of an expert-based habitat suitability model to support boreal caribou conservation

The long-term persistence of boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) is threatened by the negative impacts of human activities, including industrial development. The vast geographical distribution and behavioural variability of caribou warranted the development and validation of an appropriate conservation tool for managers in eastern Canada. We developed a habitat suitability model for boreal caribou in Quebec by integrating expert knowledge into a hierarchical analysis. We elicited responses from 14 experts on caribou ecology to determine the best spatiotemporal scales of application, the relative importance of habitat variables, the zone of influence of human infrastructure, and the parameterization of the model. Based on this input, we built the model using 8 habitat categories and 3 human infrastructure variables. Experts identified mature conifer-dominated forests and open lichen woodlands as the most important vegetation categories for boreal caribou, whereas density of and proximity to paved roads, forest roads, and mines decreased habitat quality. We mapped the resulting model over the entire province of Quebec (up to the northern forest allocation limit), and validated it using independent GPS telemetry datasets acquired in 3 distinct regions. Our model predicted that habitat suitability was highest in the northeastern part of our study area, where timber harvest activities and roads were virtually absent. Conversely, southern parts of Quebec were generally unsuitable for boreal caribou. Our habitat suitability model is among the first tools for boreal caribou conservation available to wildlife and land managers in Quebec.

Movement ecology of wolves across an industrial landscape supporting threatened populations of woodland caribou

Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are a species of increasing conservation concern across North America. Throughout much of boreal Canada, human developments, including forestry and energy development, are now accepted causes of the decline in the number and distribution of caribou. One of the hypothesised mechanisms for the decline is altered predator–prey dynamics. We quantified the impacts of a variety of industrial activities on gray wolf (Canis lupus) and caribou interactions at a regional scale. We used animal locations collected with global positioning system collars and field data to examine how a range of industrial developments influenced the movements of wolves. We quantified the speed of wolf movements and the tortuosity of movement paths at two spatiotemporal scales across forested boreal and mountainous environments occupied by woodland caribou. Habitat and disturbance features better explained wolf movements during the weekly scale. In general, linear movements increased during winter, which paralleled past studies that suggested linear travel by wolves was associated with deep snow and the increased maintenance and patrol of territories. Wolves decreased movement rates but not sinuosity within close proximity to disturbance features, thus implying behaviours near such features were more closely associated with prey searching and hunting. Alternatively, wolves increased movement rates and linear travel through areas with high densities of linear and non-linear industrial features; this response suggested that wolves avoided spending time in high-risk areas associated with human activities. Results of this study further our understanding of wolf distribution and behaviour in habitats supporting populations of caribou within a matrix of industrial developments.

Explaining Geographic Gradients in Winter Selection of Landscapes by Boreal Caribou with Implications under Global Changes in Eastern Canada

Many animal species exhibit broad-scale latitudinal or longitudinal gradients in their response to biotic and abiotic components of their habitat. Although knowing the underlying mechanism of these patterns can be critical to the development of sound measures for the preservation or recovery of endangered species, few studies have yet identified which processes drive the existence of geographical gradients in habitat selection. Using extensive spatial data of broad latitudinal and longitudinal extent, we tested three hypotheses that could explain the presence of geographical gradients in landscape selection of the endangered boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) during winter in Eastern Canadian boreal forests: 1) climate-driven selection, which postulates that geographic gradients are surrogates for climatic gradients; 2) road-driven selection, which proposes that boreal caribou adjust their selection for certain habitat classes as a function of proximity to roads; and 3) an additive effect of both roads and climate. Our data strongly supported road-driven selection over climate influences. Thus, direct human alteration of landscapes drives boreal caribou distribution and should likely remain so until the climate changes sufficiently from present conditions. Boreal caribou avoided logged areas two-fold more strongly than burnt areas. Limiting the spread of road networks and accounting for the uneven impact of logging compared to wildfire should therefore be integral parts of any habitat management plan and conservation measures within the range of the endangered boreal caribou. The use of hierarchical spatial models allowed us to explore the distribution of spatially-structured errors in our models, which in turn provided valuable insights for generating alternative hypotheses about processes responsible for boreal caribou distribution.

Have geographical influences and changing abundance led to sub-population structure in the Ahiak caribou herd, Nunavut, Canada?

We examined the premise that changing abundance and environmental conditions influence the seasonal dispersion and distribution of migratory tundra caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus). The Ahiak herd’s (north-central Nunavut Territory, Canada) calving shifted from dispersed on islands to gregarious calving on the mainland coast. As abundance further increased, the calving ground elongated east and west such that we proposed a longitudinal climate gradient. As well, the calving ground’s east and west ends are different distances from the tree-line, which dips south closer to Hudson Bay. We proposed that whether caribou winter on the tundra or within boreal forest and the different climate across the long calving ground could contribute to differential survival and productivity such that sub-population structure would result. At the scale of the individual cows (identified through satellite-collars), we did not find inter-annual spatial fidelity to either the western or eastern parts of the calving ground. At the population scale (aerial surveys of calving distribution), we also did not find discontinuities in calving distribution. The spatial association of individual cows during calving compared with their association during the rut was inconsistent among years, but overall, cows that calve together, rut together. At this time and with the available evidence, we could not infer sub-population structure from shifts in dispersion and distribution as influenced by geography and changes in abundance for the Ahiak herd.

Modelling the influence of landscape connectivity on animal distribution: a functional grain approach

Landscape change may reduce the connectivity of landscapes and impact the movement of animals. If movement processes have been influenced by landscape connectivity, we hypothesize that animals may distribute themselves in larger connected regions of the landscape in order to minimize the movement costs associated with obtaining required resources and avoiding predators. We adopt the term functional grain to describe a set of functionally connected regions. In this spatial pattern, each region describes a contiguous area of the landscape within which an animal may move freely below a threshold amount of movement cost. We used telemetry data from woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou to test hypothetical functional grains where connectivity was determined by the spatial configuration of resource patches (patch only), by the resistance to movement presented by landscape features (resistance only), and by a combination of the two (patch + resistance). To identify these functional grains, we used a grains of connectivity approach, and introduced a novel lattice‐based variant of this method to build the resistance only model. We developed a measure of fit that describes caribou distribution with respect to larger functionally connected regions in the grain, and used this to ask: 1) are seasonal caribou locations consistent with a random functional grain, implying that landscape connectivity has not shaped their distribution? 2) Given a functional grain model, are seasonal caribou locations distributed in larger functionally connected regions than random points, implying a response to the shape, size, and location of the connected regions. We found support for landscape connectivity influencing animal distribution using grains based on a landscape resistance model, and that support varied between behaviourally defined seasons. We also discuss how our novel lattice approach may be valuable for highly mobile mammals and other species where the identification of resource patches is a limitation.

Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data

Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use

Historical-ecological evaluation of the long-term distribution of woodland caribou and moose in central British Columbia

Throughout the 1800s and the 1900s, woodland caribou disappeared from much of the central and southern portions of British Columbia, Canada. Conversely, moose populations expanded during the 1900s and rapidly colonized forested areas formerly occupied by caribou. Although the general trend in range recession and expansion is documented, the processes, timing, and spatial extent of overlap between these two ungulates are uncertain. Such details have implications for our understanding of the ecology of these species and the conservation of woodland caribou. Using historical-ecological methods, we documented the distribution and abundance of caribou and moose over a 150-year period. Also, we evaluated three general sources of evidence for documenting long-term changes in the distribution of hunted or trapped fauna: (1) semi-structured interviews with Aboriginal and non-aboriginal residents; (2) journals of the Hudson's Bay Company (HBC); and (3) primary written sources. The findings of this study suggested that caribou were relatively wide-spread throughout the study area until the late 1800s when their distribution began to decline. The first recorded sighting of moose in the study area was 1832, although consensus among sources suggested that moose expanded into the area at the end of the 1800s becoming abundant in the 1920s and 1930s. Proposed causes of decline of caribou included climatic change during the 1800s and habitat loss, hunting, and altered predator-prey dynamics through the early 1900s. Our analysis of three sources of historical information and knowledge confirmed the value of Local and Traditional Ecological Knowledge in documenting and explaining long-term historical distribution of hunted species. Alternatively, HBC journals and other written sources provided good temporal specificity, but few recorded locations of caribou or moose. Documenting changes in the long-term distribution of both species can enlighten conservation planning for woodland caribou.

Recent changes in summer distribution and numbers of migratory caribou on the southern Hudson Bay coast

The status of migratory woodland caribou inhabiting the coastal region in southern Hudson Bay is dynamic. The Pen Islands Herd within that region was defined in the 1990s, but opportunistic observations between 1999 and 2007 suggested that its status had significantly changed since the late 1980s and early 1990s. We undertook systematic surveys from the Hayes River, MB, to the Lakitusaki River, ON, in 2008 and 2009 to determine current distribution and minimum numbers of woodland caribou on the southern Hudson Bay coast from the Hayes River, Manitoba, to the Lakitusaki River, Ontario. We documented a significant change in summer distribution during the historical peak aggregation period (7-15 July) compared to the 1990s. In 2008 and 2009, respectively, we tallied 3529 and 3304 animals; however, fewer than 180 caribou were observed each year in the Pen Islands Herd’s former summer range where over 10 798 caribou were observed during a systematic survey in 1994. Over 80% of caribou were in the Cape Henrietta Maria area of Ontario. Calf proportions in herds varied from 8% of animals in the west to 20% in the east. Our 2008 and 2009 systematic surveys were focused on the immediate coast, but one exploratory flight inland suggested that more caribou may be inland than had been observed in the 1980s-1990s. The causes of change in the numbers and distribution in the coastal Hudson Bay Lowlands and the association of current caribou with the formerly large Pen Islands Herd may be difficult to determine because of gaps in monitoring, but satellite telemetry, genetic sampling, remote sensing, habitat analysis, and aboriginal knowledge are all being used to pursue answers.

Delineating demographic units of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Ontario: cautions and insights

Delineating demographic structure across an organism’s range can reveal the extent to which population dynamics in different geographic areas are driven by local or external factors and can be crucial for effective conservation and management. Obtaining optimal data for such analyses can be time and resource-intensive and impending development and resource extraction pressures may necessitate the examination of existing data, even when they are less than ideal. We analyzed a historic telemetry dataset containing satellite radio-collar locations of 73 forest-dwelling woodland caribou in northern Ontario to determine demographic structure. We applied several clustering methods (i.e., agglomerative, divisive and fuzzy k-means) to median seasonal locations. Results were used to distinguish demographic units and minimum convex polygons and fixed-kernel density estimates were used to delineate unit boundaries and core areas. For areas where sampling was considered representative of the distribution of caribou on the landscape, we assessed demographic distinctness by evaluating intra-individual variation in cluster membership, membership strength and distance between boundaries and core areas of adjacent units. The number and composition of clusters identified was similar among methods and caribou were grouped into 6 general clusters. The distinctions between the three clusters identified in the central portion of the province (i.e., Lac Seul, Wabakimi, Geraldton) and the two clusters identified in the eastern portion of the province (i.e., Cochrane and Cochrane-Quebec) were determined to represent demographic structuring. Additional distinctions in other areas (i.e., between The Red Lake and Lac Seul clusters in the west and between the central and eastern clusters) may just be artifacts of the original sampling effort. Amongst demographic units, there was no evidence of individual flexibility in cluster membership and average membership strength was very high. There was little to no overlap between boundaries and core areas of adjacent units, but distances between adjacent unit boundaries were relatively low. Additional sampling effort is needed to further delineate demographic structure in Ontario caribou.

Caribou conservation and recovery in Ontario: development and implementation of the Caribou Conservation Plan

The range of Ontario’s woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) (forest-dwelling ecotype) has receded northward substantially over many decades, leading to its current Threatened designation. Ontario released its Caribou Conservation Plan (CCP) in the fall of 2009. This policy responded to public input and recommendations from the Ontario Woodland Caribou Recovery Team and the Caribou Science Review Panel, and outlines conservation and recovery actions to conserve and recover caribou. Within an adaptive management framework, the CCP builds upon a recent history of managing at large landscape scales in Ontario to implement a range management approach as the basis for recovery actions. These commitments and actions include enhanced research and monitoring, improved caribou habitat planning at the landscape scale, an integrated range analysis approach using advanced assessment tools to evaluate thresholds of habitat amount, arrangement and disturbance, the assessment of probability of persistence, consideration of cumulative effects, meeting forest management silvicultural performance requirements, consideration of caribou recovery implications when managing other wildlife, an initial focus on the southern edge of caribou distribution where threats are most significant, improved outreach and stewardship, and consideration of Aboriginal Traditional Knowledge in recovery actions. Implementation of the CCP signifies a long-term provincial commitment to caribou recovery, initially focusing on identified priorities within the CCP.

"I'd Be Foolish to Tell You They Were Caribou": Local Knowledge of Historical Interactions between Reindeer and Caribou in Barrow, Alaska.

Karen H. Mager Karen H. Mager, Department of Biology and Wildlife – University of Alaska Fairbanks. Irving 1, room 201, 902 N Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775; karen.mager{at}alaska.edu

Historical changes in caribou distribution and land cover in and around Prince Albert National Park: land management implications

In central Saskatchewan, boreal woodland caribou population declines have been documented in the 1940s and again in the 1980s. Although both declines led to a ban in sport hunting, a recovery was only seen in the 1950s and was attributed to wolf control and hunting closure. Recent studies suggest that this time, the population may not be increasing. In order to contribute to the conservation efforts, historical changes in caribou distribution and land cover types in the Prince Albert Greater Ecosystem (PAGE), Saskatchewan, were documented for the period of 1960s to the present. To examine changes in caribou distribution, survey observations, incidental sightings and telemetry data were collated. To quantify landscape changes, land cover maps were created for 1966 and 2006 using current and historic forest resources inventories, fire, logging, and roads data. Results indicate that woodland caribou are still found throughout the study area although their distribution has changed and their use of the National Park is greatly limited. Results of transition prob¬abilities and landscape composition analyses on the 1966 and 2006 land cover maps revealed an aging landscape for both the National Park and provincial crown land portions of the PAGE. In addition, increased logging and the development of extensive road and trail networks on provincial crown land produced significant landscape fragmentation for woodland caribou and reduced functional attributes of habitat patches. Understanding historical landscape changes will assist with ongoing provincial and federal recovery efforts for boreal caribou, forest management planning activities, and landscape restoration efforts within and beyond the Park boundaries.

Modeling influences on winter distribution of caribou in northwestern Alaska through use of satellite telemetry

I hypothesize that the distribution of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) is affected by multiple, interrelated factors. These factors include, but are not limited to, terrain and snow characteristics as well as predation pressure and habitat. To test this hypothesis, I attributed caribou locations derived from satellite telemetry over a 6 year period with terrain (elevation, slope, aspect, and ruggedness), habitat characteristics, and moose density - potentially an index of wolf predation pressure. These locations were compared to random locations, attributed using the same data layers, using logistic regression techniques to develop resource selection functions (RSFs). I found that caribou moved significantly less during mid-winter than early- or late-winter and that cows moved significantly more in April than bulls due to their earlier departure on their spring migration. Distribution was different between cows and bulls. Terrain variables were important factors but were scale-dependent. Cows avoided forested areas, highlighting the importance of tundra habitats, and selected for dwarf shrub, with relatively high lichen cover, and sedge habitat types. Bulls selected for dryas, coniferous forest and dwarf shrub habitats but against lowland sedge, upland shrub and burned tundra. Cow distribution was negatively correlated with moose density at the scale of the Seward Peninsula. My results support the hypothesis that caribou distribution during winter in northwest Alaska is affected by multiple, interrelated factors. These results may be useful for researchers to track and/or model changes in future patterns of range use over winter.

Fire, grazing history, lichen abundance, and winter distribution of caribou in Alaska's taiga

AbstractIn the early 1990s the Nelchina Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) Herd (NCH) began a dramatic shift to its current winter range, migrating at least an additional 100 km beyond its historic range. We evaluated the impacts of fire and grazing history on lichen abundance and subsequent use and distribution by the NCH. Historic (prior to 1990) and current (2002) winter ranges of the NCH had similar vascular vegetation, lichen cover (P = 0.491), and fire histories (P = 0.535), but the former range had significantly less forage lichen biomass as a result of grazing by caribou. Biomass of forage lichens was twice as great overall (P = 0.031) and 4 times greater in caribou selected sites on the current range than in the historic range, greatly increasing availability to caribou. Caribou on the current range selected for stands with >20% lichen cover (P < 0.001), greater than 1,250 kg/ha (P < 0.001) forage lichen biomass and stands older than 80 yr postfire (P < 0.001). After fires, forage lichen cover and biomass seldom recovered sufficiently to attract caribou grazing until after ≥60 yr, and, as a group, primary forage lichen species did not reach maximum abundance until 180 yr postfire. Recovery following overgrazing can occur much more quickly because lichen cover, albeit mostly fragments, and organic substrates remain present. Our results provide benchmarks for wildlife managers assessing condition of caribou winter range and predicting effects of fires on lichen abundance and caribou distribution. Of our measurements of cover and biomass by species, densities and heights of trees, elevation, slope and aspect, only percentage cover by Cladonia amaurocraea, Cladina rangiferina, Flavocetraria cuculata, and lowbush cranberry (Vaccinium vitis‐idaea) were necessary for predicting caribou use of winter range. © 2011 The Wildlife Society

Fragmentation, dispersal and metapopulation function in remnant populations of endangered mountain caribou

AbstractPopulations that are fragmented in space may persist because of metapopulation function that relies on dispersal among subpopulations. Assuming that a fragmented distribution means that the species operates as a metapopulation can lead to erroneous conclusions about population structure, unless the dispersal traits of the organism are understood. A wide‐ranging large mammal with an increasingly fragmented distribution is the mountain caribou, found in the interior rain forests of British Columbia, Canada. These caribou are an endangered ecotype of woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou, and, based on movements of adult caribou, their population has been divided into 18 subpopulations. Their numbers have declined over at least the last 25 years, and it is unknown if their fragmented distribution operates as a metapopulation linked by juvenile dispersal or is simply a step towards extinction. From a database of radio‐locations collected over a 23‐year period (1984–2007) from 358 caribou, we used a spatial index to define summer/fall composite ranges (breeding ranges) across their distribution. The 18 previously recognized subpopulations were fragmented further into 41 summer/fall composite ranges. Young animals (<1 year of age) were not observed to disperse among subpopulations (0/26 opportunities) or even among summer/fall composite ranges (0/7). Similar results were found for animals 2 and 3 years of age. Breeding dispersal by adult caribou occurred in 1.4% of the observed opportunities (8/587). These dispersal rates are insufficient to rescue the smaller and declining subpopulations. We conclude that the distribution of these mountain caribou is more fragmented than thought previously and is not functioning as a classic metapopulation due to a lack of dispersal; rather, it is better described as an extreme non‐equilibrium metapopulation. Mountain caribou and other wide‐ranging species fragmented into subpopulations by human actions may appear to be in a metapopulation but unless they have the innate ability to disperse among subpopulations, the distribution is more likely the geographic pattern of the extinction process.

Distribution and Movements of the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd 1990–2005: Prior to Oil and Gas Development

Four caribou (Rangifer tarandus grantii) herds calve on the North Slope of Alaska, three of which have been exposed to little or no resource development. We present 15 years of baseline data on the distribution and movements of 72 satellite-collared and 10 GPS-collared caribou from the Teshekpuk caribou herd (TCH) that have had little to no exposure to oil and gas activities. Fixed-kernel home range analyses of collared caribou revealed that calving grounds were concentrated (i.e., 50% kernel utilization distribution) along the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern shores of Teshekpuk Lake. During the postcalving period, 51% and 35% of caribou moved through two constricted zones to the east and west of Teshekpuk Lake, respectively, and accessed insect-relief habitat along the Beaufort Sea coast. During late summer and early fall, TCH caribou were concentrated to the southeast and southwest of Teshekpuk Lake. Although 65% of the Teshekpuk caribou wintered in two areas on the central coastal plain around the village of Atqasuk and south of Teshekpuk Lake, other TCH animals wintered in a great variety of places, including the Seward Peninsula, the eastern and southern Brooks Range, and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. We detected an apparent emigration rate of 6.9%. One male and five female TCH caribou joined the breeding populations of the Western Arctic and Central Arctic herds. TCH caribou traveled an average distance of 2348 ± 190 km annually. Movement rates were at a maximum in midsummer, lowest in winter, and intermediate during spring and fall migrations. Restrictions on oil and gas leasing and surface occupancy have been in place to protect calving, migratory corridors, and insect-relief habitat for the TCH, but these protections are likely to be removed. These data will provide a good baseline that can be used to compare predevelopment distribution and movement patterns of TCH caribou to distribution and movement patterns during and after petroleum development.

Response of Overwintering Caribou to Burned Habitat in Northwest Alaska

Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) use lichens, when available, as primary forage on their winter range. In boreal forest habitats, wildland fires effectively destroy lichens, and overwintering caribou are known to avoid burned areas for decades while lichen communities regenerate. However, little has been published about caribou response to burned habitat in tundra ecosystems. To assess the relationship between winter caribou distribution and burned areas, we instrumented Western Arctic Herd caribou with satellite telemetry collars and evaluated their locations in relation to recent burns of known age (? 55 years old) across northwestern Alaska. We analyzed caribou distribution for different habitat types (tundra and boreal forest), age categories of burns, and possible edge effects. We also reanalyzed the data, limiting available habitat to a uniform traveling distance (5658 m) from daily satellite locations. Using selection indices that compared caribou use of burns and buffers to their availability, we found that caribou strongly selected against burned areas within the tundra ecosystem. Recent burns were selected against at both large (range-wide) and intermediate (5658 m) spatial scales. Caribou particularly selected against 26- to 55-year-old burns and the interior (core) portions of all burns. We found that caribou were more likely to select burned areas in the late fall and early spring than midwinter. Increased fires in northwestern Alaska could decrease the availability and quality of winter habitat available to the herd over the short term (up to 55 years), potentially influencing herd population dynamics and reducing sustainable harvest levels. We recommend that fire managers consider caribou midwinter range condition and extent: however, management that achieves a mosaic pattern of fire history may benefit a wide array of species, including caribou. A better understanding of the current regional fire regime and the distribution of available winter range will be required before practicable management recommendations can be developed for this herd.

Impacts of climate change on the seasonal distribution of migratory caribou

AbstractArctic ecosystems are especially vulnerable to global climate change as temperature and precipitation regimes are altered. An ecologically and socially highly important northern terrestrial species that may be impacted by climate change is the caribou, Rangifer tarandus. We predicted the current and potential future occurrence of two migratory herds of caribou [Rivière George herd (RG) and Rivière‐aux‐Feuilles (RAF) herd] under a Canadian General Circulation Model climate change scenario, across all seasons in the Québec–Labrador peninsula, using climatic and habitat predictor variables. Argos satellite‐tracking collars have been deployed on 213 caribou between 1988 and 2003 with locations recorded every 4–5 days. In addition, we assembled a database of climate (temperature, precipitation, snowfall, timing and length of growing season) and habitat data obtained from the SPOT VEGETATION satellite sensor. Logistic regression models indicated that both climatic and physical habitat variables were significant predictors of current migratory caribou occurrence. Migratory caribou appeared to prefer regions with higher snowfall and lichen availability in the fall and winter. In the summer, caribou preferred cooler areas likely corresponding to a lower prevalence of insects, and they avoided disturbed and recently burnt areas. Climate change projections using climate data predicted an increased range for the RAF herd and decreased range for the RG herd during 2040–2069, limiting the herds to northeastern regions of the Québec–Labrador peninsula. Direct and indirect consequences of climate change on these migratory caribou herds possibly include alteration in habitat use, migration patterns, foraging behaviour, and demography, in addition to social and economic stress to arctic and subarctic native human populations.

Relationship between resource selection, distribution, and abundance: a test with implications to theory and conservation

AbstractMuch of applied and theoretical ecology is concerned with the interactions of habitat quality, animal distribution, and population abundance. We tested a technique that uses resource selection functions (RSF) to scale animal density to the relative probability of selecting a patch of habitat. Following an accurate survey of a reference block, the habitat‐based density estimator can be used to predict population abundance for other areas with no or unreliable survey data. We parameterized and tested the technique using multiple years of radiotelemetry locations and survey data collected for woodland caribou across four landscape‐level survey blocks. The habitat‐based density estimator performed poorly. Predictions were no better than those of a simple area estimator and in some cases deviated from the observed by a factor of 10. We developed a simulation model to investigate factors that might influence prediction success. We experimentally manipulated population density, caribou distribution, ability of animals to track carrying capacity, and precision of the estimation equation. Our simulations suggested that interactions between population density, the size of the reference block, and the pattern of distribution can lead to large discrepancies between observed and predicted population numbers. Over‐ or undermatching patch carrying capacity and precision of the estimator can influence predictions, but the effect is much less extreme. Although there is some empirical and theoretical evidence to support a relationship between animal abundance and resource selection, our study suggests that a number of factors can seriously confound these relationships. Habitat‐based density estimators might be effective where a stable, isolated population at equilibrium is used to generate predictions for areas with similar population parameters and ecological conditions.

Late Holocene Land Use in the Nutzotin Mountains: Lithic Scatters, Viewsheds, and Resource Distribution

This paper explores the relationship of site location relative to the viewable topographic matrix of the distribution of caribou, moose, and Dall’s sheep and site function in the Nutzotin Mountains of south central Alaska. The archaeological record of the project area consists of late Holocene lithic scatters containing several projectile point types (Notched, Kavik-like, as well as points made of copper) representing the Northern Archaic and Northern Athabascan traditions. Spatial patterning of site location, viewsheds, and artifact distributions (points, bifaces, and scrapers) are noted, but only a few qualitative associations are found between viewsheds and site locations and viewsheds and artifact distributions.