Distance Deterrence Research Articles

An Agent-based Approach to Study Spatial Structure Effects on Estimated Distance Deterrence in Commuting

We provide an experimental design to study how estimates of the distance deterrence parameter in a standard doubly-constrained gravity model respond to different patterns of spatial structure. The design is defined as an agent-based simulation framework that simultaneously considers the response of commuting and migration to changes in the spatial structure, accounting for labor and housing market issues. The agents are equipped with a utility function and are expected to maximize their utilities corresponding to their disposable income net of commuting costs and house value. We study how the estimates of the distance deterrence parameter respond to where the central business district is located, to the clustering of local and basic sector jobs, to changes in the road transportation network, and to the compactness in the system of towns in the geography.

Distance deterrence comparison in urban commute among different socioeconomic groups: A normalized linear piece-wise gravity model

Understanding commuting behavior among socioeconomic groups is essential in promoting equity across the housing and transportation system. This field is well-studied, but existing research failed to reach a complete agreement on the relationship between socioeconomic groups and commuting distance. Our study establishes a framework to model distance deterrence impacts on various socio-economic groups of commuters by adapting a commonly used gravity model approach. We apply this framework to explore commuting distance on income groups in 12 major U.S cities, delineate how the deterrence impact increases with distance, and demonstrate a significant discrepancy in it between the low- and high-income groups. Results indicate that high-income commuters are less sensitive to increasing distance. And this inequity is more severe in cities that have higher population density and more clustered job locations. Our findings provide insights for equity analysis in public transit infrastructures and land use.

Modeling Commuting Flows via Fixed Components

The basic, reasonable hypothesis underlying this paper is that many individuals are comfortable with their current combination of job and residential location and have no intention of changing job location or moving from where they live. This causes autocorrelation in the time series of commuting flows and provides a rationale for introducing fixed components in the trip distribution model. The fixed components are assumed to be constant in time and separated from the observed trip distribution. We next consider the residuals and fit the model by a constrained entropy-maximization procedure. Based on commuting data from Stockholm County in Sweden, the fixed component spatial interaction model is demonstrated to lead to a substantial improvement in goodness of fit compared with conventional spatial interaction models. The identification of fixed components leads to significantly lower estimates of the distance deterrence parameter, and fixed components are further argued to be potentially useful in a prediction perspective. The distance deterrence parameter in the fixed component model reflects the spatial interaction of workers who are actually considering changes in their residential and/or job location. We also compare alternative measures of spatial separation and discuss differences in commuting behaviour by gender.

Differentiation Policy and Access to Higher Education in Northern Ontario, Canada: An Analysis of Unintended Consequences

Differentiation policies have been implemented in Ontario higher education (HE) with the intent of manufacturing a more efficient and higher-quality system. Policy-makers have repeatedly touted their benefits, but the unintended consequences of differentiation policies remain neglected. Through this piece, we present a northern critique of differentiation policies grounded on the distance deterrence effects literature. We propose that differentiation policies threaten to exacerbate existing provincial north-south disparities in HE access, hampering human capital formation and economic development in northern communities. In addition, we specify some strategies to mitigate these detrimental effects and conclude by providing a conceptual framework through which to understand regional “blind spots” in differentiation policy.

Distance deterrence, trade barriers and accessibility. An analysis of market potential in the European Union

The interest in disentangling the role of borders in international trade is growing even within virtually borderless areas like the European Union. While there are a variety of research studies measuring how borders affect trade, there is little insight into the impact of borders on the potential accessibility to markets. The aim of this paper is twofold. First we provide a coherent calibration of the impedance parameters affecting trade (border effect based on best official data available and with a sound estimation of distance and the distance decay parameter with the use of network-based measurements). The second objective is to ascertain to what extent the market potential of different countries is hampered by the border effect. The analysis reveals that calibrating distance decay and considering border effects provides more realistic results. These results evidence that peripheral areas are more sensitive to the estimation of the distance decay parameter, whilst the main metropolitan regions are less affected by both distance decay and border effects. Finally, we present the decomposed market potential in a spillover-like matrix showing those countries that have a diversified set of contributors to their market potential and those where the number of contributors is limited.

The Gravity Model of Migration: The Successful Comeback of an Ageing Superstar in Regional Science

For at least half a century, and building on observations first made a century earlier, the gravity model has been the most commonly-used paradigm for understanding gross migration flows between regions. This model owes its success to, firstly, its intuitive consistency with migration theories; secondly, ease of estimation in its simplest form; and, thirdly, goodness of fit in most applications. While fitting gravity models of aggregate migration flows started taking backstage to microdata analysis in the 1980s, a recent comeback has resulted from increasing applications to international migration and from the emergence of statistical theories appropriate for studying spatial interaction. In this paper we review the status quo and argue for greater integration of internal and international migration modelling. Additionally we revisit the issues of parameter stability and distance deterrence measurement by means of a New Zealand case study. We argue that gravity modelling of migration has a promising future in a multi-regional stochastic population projection system – an area in which the model has been to date surprisingly underutilised. We conclude with outlining current challenges and opportunities in this field.

An Empirically Based Implementation and Evaluation of a Hierarchical Model for Commuting Flows. 一种基于经验的层状通勤流模型实现与评估

This article provides an empirical evaluation of a hierarchical approach to modeling commuting flows. As the gravity family of spatial interaction models represents a benchmark for empirical evaluation, we begin by reviewing basic aspects of these models. The hierarchical modeling framework is the same that Thorsen, Ubøe, and Nævdal (1999) used. However, because some modifications are required to construct a more workable model, we undertake a relatively detailed presentation of the model, rather than merely referring to the presentation in Thorsen, Ubøe, and Nævdal (1999). The model uses a hierarchical specification of a transportation network and the individual search procedure. Journeys to work are determined by the effects of distance deterrence and of intervening opportunities, and by the location of potential destinations relative to alternatives at subsequent levels in a transportation network. The model calibration uses commuting data from a region in western Norway. The estimated parameter values are reasonable, and the explanatory power is very satisfactory when compared with the results of a competing destinations approach.

An Empirically Based Implementation and Evaluation of a Network Model for Commuting Flows

In this paper we present empirical results based on a network model for commuting flows. The model is a modified version of a construction introduced in Thorsen et al. (1999). Journeys-to-work are determined by distance deterrence effects, the effects of intervening opportunities, and the location of potential destinations relative to alternatives at subsequent steps in the transportation network. Calibration is based on commuting data from a region in Western Norway. Estimated parameter values are reasonable, and the explanatory power is found to be very satisfying compared to results from a competing destinations approach. We also provide theoretical arguments in favor of a network approach to represent spatial structure characteristics.

Determinants of the Regional Demand for Higher Education in The Netherlands: A Gravity Model Approach

Sá C., Florax R. J. G. M. and Rietveld P. (2004) Determinants of the regional demand for higher education in The Netherlands: a gravity model approach, Reg. Studies 38, 375–392. Studies on the determinants of the demand for higher education typically emphasize the relevance of socio-economic factors, but leave the spatial dimensions of the prospective students’ university choices largely unexplored. In this study, we investigate the determinants of university entrance for Dutch high school graduates in 2000, and pay particular attention to the attractiveness of the university, both in terms of its accessibility and the educational quality of its programme. We combine cross-section data on the region of origin of the high school graduate and the university destination region for first-year students with regional and university characteristics in a production-constrained gravity model. The main finding of the study is that the behaviour of prospective students is governed by a distance deterrence effect and a downward rent effect, but a positive impact results from regional/urban amenities rather than from the educational quality of the university programmes.

Wage payoffs and distance deterrence in the journey to work

In this paper we suggest a microeconomic model for how commuting flows relate to traveling distance in a two-region system. Commuting is the preferred choice of a worker whenever he can obtain an increase in wages greater than the cost of commuting. Our framework is based on an approach where workers apply for jobs according to a strategy that maximizes their expected payoffs (wages minus commuting costs). We also discuss the possibility of a systematic bias when actual traveling distances are represented by distances between city centers, ignoring intrazonal distances.

Determinants of the Regional Demand for Higher Education: A Gravity Model Approach

Studies on the determinants of the demand for higher education typically emphasize the relevance of socio-economic factors, but leave the spatial dimensions of the prospective students' university choices largely explored. In this study, we investigate the determinants of university entrance for Dutch high school graduates in 2000, and pay particular attention to the attractiveness of the university, both in terms of its accessibility and the educational quality of its programme. We combine cross-section data on the region of origin of the high school graduate and the university destination region for first-year students with regional and university characteristics in a production-constrained gravity model. The main finding of the study is that the behaviour of prospective students is governed by a negative distance deterrence effect and a downward rent effect, but a positive impact results from regional/urban amenities rather than from the educational quality of the university programmes.

Estimation of Alonso's Theory of Movements by Means of Instrumental Variables

Alonso's Theory of Movements is a widely applicable Spatial Interaction Model, describing an equilibrium of inflows and outflows. Based on a survey of estimation attempts in the past, we conclude that econometric estimation of the so-called systemic parameters is somewhat problematic. In this paper we describe a new estimation method, using instrumental variables which are derived from the model. The distance deterrence parameter and the unobserved balancing factors can be estimated first, with known methods. The remaining parameters can be estimated in an iterative regression procedure, using instruments for the balancing factors. These instruments are derived as the predicted values of the balancing factors, based on the last obtained parameter estimates.

AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF PARAMETER SENSITIVITY TO CHOICE SET DEFINITION IN SHOPPING DESTINATION CHOICE MODELS

This paper empirically examines parameter sensitivity to choice set specification in the context of shopping destination choice, using supermarket choice data from Gainesville, Horida. We estimate parameters of the widely applied multinomial logit (MNL) discrete choice mode) multiple times. Each estimation uses, for all observations, a single randomly selected subset of the universal choice set. The distribution of parameter estimates is examined for specific market segments and choice subset sizes. The results indicate that the parameters of the model can be quite sensitive to the selection of the choice set used in the calibration. However, this sensitivity is not even across all parameters and there are some interesting variations. Distance deterrence and chain image parameters, for example, exhibit much more stability than parameters for store size and store competition. Li addition, model parameters show encouraging stability with relatively small choice sets of seven to ten stores.

Migrant Inertia, Accessibility and Local Unemployment

A labour-markets model is constructed in which migration may exhibit 'distance deterrence' and 'cumulative inertia'. (Migration probabilities fall with distance and length of residence, respectively.) The combination of these two processes yields higher equilibrium unemployment rates in remote areas. Fewer out-migration opportunities in remote areas generate longer residence durations which become self-perpetuating (via cumulative inertia). Such areas accu- mulate net in-migrants until the local unemployment rate rises sufficiently to balance inflows and outflows. In equilibrium, local unemployment rates compensate for (endogenous) varia- tions in residence duration. Some evidence is presented for Britain which supports the pre- diction of higher unemployment in remote areas. inertia (or negative duration dependence) and distance deterrence in migration behaviour generates higher equilibrium unemployment rates in remote areas, all other things being equal. Cumulative inertia reflects a process whereby individuals form attachments to area, friends, job, etc., which grow over time. Distance deterrence arises because of increasing movement costs over longer distances, and friction in information flows about relevant opportunities. Both processes are intuitively plausible and have been tested empirically.' Clearly, both issues are likely to affect adjustment patterns in the face of shocks to labour markets. The argument advanced in this paper, however, and one that is perhaps not quite so obvious, is that the combination of the two processes can also affect the underlying equilibrium itself. The existence of persistent spatial differentials in unemployment is charac- teristic of most countries, and would appear to motivate areas of government policy. Various explanations for such differentials have been proposed. The analysis presented here is intended primarily to deepen our understanding of the causes of these sustained differentials, and hence to inform policy. Traditional explanations for sustained local unemployment differentials may be divided into three types. One argument is in terms simply of labour immobility-the perceived costs of moving outweigh the benefits, and hence labour market imbalances persist. Alternatively, one may combine mobile lab- our with spatial wage rigidities, such that equilibrium local unemployment patterns 'compensate' for local variation in wages and other exogenous factors (climate, environment, etc.) in people's preference functions. Finally, there is the issue of labour heterogeneity, e.g. by occupation; a 'compensating varia- tions' equilibrium may exist for each homogeneous class of labour, such that a region's aggregate unemployment rate reflects the local composition of

THE REGIONAL DIMENSION OF TAKEOVER ACTIVITY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

This paper seeks to identify and account for the regional incidence of external takeover in the United Kingdom during the years 1969, 1977, and 1985. The factors expected to influence interregional takeover flows are identified and a model specification based on the gravity principle is suggested. Results derived from Poisson estimation indicate that the share of U.K. firms headquartered in origin and destination regions, distance deterrence, the size of companies in origin regions and the dominating effect of South east England play a key role in the process. Copyright 1994 by Scottish Economic Society.

Chain Image and Store-Choice Modeling: The Effects of Income and Race

Addressed in this paper is the lack of understanding of the extent to which the image of a store can affect store selection and of the extent to which this image varies across market segments. The subject of the analysis is the choice of supermarkets for major grocery shopping, and image is here measured by the chain to which a supermarket belongs. Evidence is presented through the use of descriptive statistics from a sample of consumers and through several store-choice model calibrations that chain image is an important determinant of store choice. In the particular data set employed, chain image is at least as important as store size and store competition. Evidence is presented on the effects of peoples' income and race on their store selection. Differences are found in chain image both across income groups and across racial groups. Differences are also reported in distance deterrence across income groups, although in the opposite direction to common belief. It appears that low-income consumers are willing to travel further for grocery shopping, ceteris paribus, probably to take advantage of lower prices. Higher income consumers may be unwilling to spend the extra time involved to shop at the stores with the lowest prices and therefore give up low prices for the sake of convenience. The general conclusion from the results presented here is that intrinsic differences in store-choice behavior exist across different groups of consumers and that analyzing store location accurately demands knowledge of such differences.

From the Weber Problem to a ‘Topodynamic’ Approach to Locational Systems

In any given space, a sequence of interdependent Weber problems of a certain type leads to a pattern of locations which can be mathematically characterized. Conversely, the observed evolution of a given locational system corresponds to certain characteristics of an analogous Weberian locational system. Determining such characteristics leads to the simulating and forecasting of the evolution of the observed locational system. A model corresponding to such a ‘topodynamic’ approach is presented and an application is made. Three different effects are integrated into the model: an interdependency effect which determines the polarization level; an ‘attraction — repulsion’ effect which determines the center — periphery equilibrium; and a distance deterrence effect which determines the diffusion process and the inertia level.

Transport coefficients for the equilibration of spatial interaction processes

In a neighborhood of the equilibrium solution of a doubly constrained gravity model of spatial interaction, or of a transportation problem, feasible solutions can be linearly approximated with the use of phenomenological (transport) coefficients. Paths to equilibrium can then be projected. Procedures for computing these coefficients—second-order derivatives of the entropy or the energy with respect to attractivity, emissivity, and distance deterrence parameters— are discussed.

Economic Explanations of Spatial Variation in Distance Deterrence

Recent studies have provided evidence that distance-deterrence parameters may vary between areas even in doubly constrained spatial interaction models. In particular, it has been suggested that distance effects may be stronger for less accessible origins or destinations. This paper considers possible explanations for such variation. It is argued that explanations in terms of ‘map pattern’ alone are inadequate and that more substantive explanations are required in relation to the economic assumptions of the standard spatial interaction model. Four potentially variable parameters in this model are distinguished and three specific hypotheses to account for the observed pattern are outlined. These involve a real income effect, scale economies in transport costs, and the spatial concentration of specialised functions.

Progress and problems in the development of recreational trip generation and trip distribution models

Continuing problems in the development of recreational spatial interaction models are discussed. The paper begins by considering the relative behavioral relevance to recreational travel behavior of the unconstrained gravity model, the origin‐constrained gravity model, and a simultaneous trip generation and trip distribution model. It elaborates on the behavioral rationale for the supply‐generated participation effect hypothesized in the latter model. A detailed discussion ensues of modeling problems related to the travel cost/distance and the attractiveness components of recreational trip distribution models. Particular topics covered are the continued inability of models to estimate the separate effects of various elements of travel cost and the evidence that, in addition to a distance deterrence effect, there is a nearest opportunity effect, an intervening opportunities effect, and perceptual barrier effects on recreational travel flows. A review of recent developments in estimating destination attracti...