Risk Of Disruption Research Articles

Government policies on port resilience amid strike events—A two-stage Van Damme based tripartite evolutionary game

In contrast to natural phenomena, such as extreme weather, accidents, disasters, and public health emergencies, labor strikes are human-induced emergent circumstances arising from low real wages in most cases. During disputes with ports, the labor typically exerts control over the duration and scale of strikes to negotiate improved benefits, while port authorities may seek collaboration with neighboring ports to enhance resilience and mitigate transportation disruption risks. Should the government participate as a third party in the game as an indirect stakeholder? The government must assess the necessity of engagement in the first stage and select an appropriate strategy in the second. Within the framework of tripartite equilibrium, this study examines the evolutionary paths of stability points, dual-stable states, and unstable states under different government engagement policies, as well as the influence of each factor on the tripartite strategy choice. The results reveal that (1) the right timing and policies for government engagement can mitigate more than half of the damage from the strike to the overall system; (2) port alliances can speed up 50 % of the evolution time of the labor to terminate the strike; (3) the government will play the dominant role when the risk of the strike to labor is increased; and (4) the expected duration of strikes can have an inverted “U”-shaped effect on port strategies but a “U”-shaped effect on government policies. The application of the two-stage evolutionary game model in this study develops an analytical framework that provides better reference for the government’s actual decision-making.

Accessibility derivative: Measuring the accessibility contribution of public transit routes

Accessibility is one of the most essential objectives of public transit systems as the transit service’s useability and service quality. The accessibility of transit systems as a whole is well understood; however, it is still unclear how each route contributes to the system-wide accessibility. Meanwhile, with a higher risk of disruptions and more uncertainties from climate change and other disruptions, there is an urgent need to systematically study the impacts of service change with the contribution of each route to general accessibility. To address this gap, we introduce the accessibility derivative, a model-agnostic measure of the contribution of each route in a transit system. We define the derivative of a route as the systemwide change in accessibility after removing the route from the system. We demonstrate how to calculate the derivative numerically from widely available public transit schedule and automated passenger count data. The measure reflects the inherent structure of a transit system and reveals the impacts of potential route-level service changes. The results provide firsthand evidence on public transit assessment and planning, including performance assessment, schedule redesign, and planning transfers.

Did grain futures prices overreact to the Russia–Ukraine war due to herding?

We study the impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain futures prices. The war allows us to evaluate whether commodity futures markets at the time were driven by investor herding. Using event study methods, we find that wheat futures prices rose by 35 percent above the counterfactual until the EU Solidarity Lanes were announced, more than corn futures prices, which were up 16 percent. This relative price response cannot be explained by herding behavior. Furthermore, prices for control commodities did not respond to the war at all, contradicting the herding theory. There is no statistical evidence of abnormal speculative pressure in the market around the time of the invasion, and we conclude the markets put a fair price on the wartime risk of Black Sea grain shipment disruptions.

Does digital transformation promote supply chain efficiency? Evidence from China

AbstractWith the deepening of industrial division of labor, supply chain efficiency has become a critical driver of companies' core competitiveness. Using a sample of Chinese A‐share listed companies from 2007 to 2023, this paper empirically investigates the impact of digital transformation on supply chain efficiency. We find that firms with a higher degree of digital transformation are associated with higher supply chain efficiency. Mechanism tests show that digital transformation facilitates supply chain efficiency via lower customer demand uncertainty as well as raw material disruption risk. The positive effect of digital transformation is more pronounced for non‐state‐owned enterprises and for firms with less stable customers and more geographically dispersed suppliers. Moreover, there is much degree prompt in supply chain efficiency for firms located in a better digital environment. This paper sheds light on how digital transformation influences supply chain efficiency and provides significant insights for firms to improve supply chain efficiency.

Sourcing from risky reverse channels: Insights on pricing and resilience strategies in sustainable supply chains

This study examines the resilience and sustainability of supply chains amid global disruptions, with a particular focus on the essential role of reverse logistics. Through a game-theoretic approach, we explore manufacturer decisions to source from either reliable but expensive raw materials or cost-effective yet riskier recycled or recyclable materials from the reverse logistics channel. Our analysis outlines three primary sourcing strategies: sourcing exclusively from suppliers (SS), sourcing solely through retailer reverse channel (RS), and a balanced dual sourcing (DS) approach. Our findings reveal the economic viability that recycling outsourcing is influenced by market demand and disruption risks. Notably, in scenarios of constrained market potential, the cost advantage of using recycled materials from less reliable reverse logistics channels surpasses the risks associated with supply chain disruptions, suggesting a complex cost-benefit landscape amidst supply uncertainties. Moreover, the stability of suppliers emerges as a pivotal factor in strategic sourcing decisions, underscoring the need to consider both economic efficiencies and supply reliability. The study also evaluates the dynamic competition between manufacturers and retailers, shedding light on how strategic adjustments driven by sustainability and resilience goals can enhance profitability and sustainability. It was found that despite the threat of disruptions, manufacturers benefit more from engaging with risky reverse channels under specific conditions, underscoring the nuanced decision-making required in uncertain supply scenarios. This research advances sustainable supply chain management by highlighting strategic complexities and the need for understanding economic efficiencies and supply stability, offering insights for navigating disruptions and fostering resilient, sustainable supply chains.

Leveraging Pumped Storage Power Plants for Innovative Stability Enhancement of Weakly Interconnected Power Systems

The hybrid AC/DC grid, based on a significant share of renewable energy sources, is gradually becoming an essential aspect of the modern energy system. The integration of intermittent renewable generators into contemporary energy systems is accompanied by the decommissioning of power plants containing synchronous generators. Consequently, this leads to a reduction in system inertia and an increase in the risk of stability disruption. The abrupt disconnection of the primary generator or power line can result in an unanticipated mismatch between power generation and consumption. This discrepancy can trigger substantial and swiftly evolving alterations in power distribution, angular speed, load flow, and the frequency of generators. The risks of an energy system collapse can be mitigated through automation, enabling rapid adjustments to generation and load capacities, as well as power flows, in the electrical network. This article justifies the utilisation of a power control method for high-voltage power line interconnections. The technology of hydro storage power plants and measurements of voltage phasors are employed. The potential for easing power flow restrictions and realising substantial economic benefits is supported by the results obtained using simplified dynamic model of the Baltic power system and Nord Pool electricity market model.

Leveraging advanced technologies in Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) to mitigate healthcare disruptions: A comprehensive review

The Healthcare sector is undeniably one of the most critical sectors in any given economy and disruptions in this industry have dire consequences that affect patient care, the efficiency of healthcare systems and by far public health. This publication seeks to analyze and discuss the vital role of supply chain risk management in addressing disruptions, becoming resilient and ensuring that healthcare services function effectively. The pandemic (COVID-19) brought to fore just how critical it is to have a robust and agile system for supply chain risk management in healthcare, the sudden and unprecedented surge in demand for essential medical equipment like personal protective equipment (PPE) left millions of people at risk thereby jeopardizing their safety and health. This crisis echoed the urgent need for efficient and effective supply chain risk management strategies to mitigate such risks and ensure the availability of vital medical supplies. This review paper will be sharing different strategies and actionable tips to develop contingency plans, identify, reduce potential disruptions and recommended practices for risk management in the healthcare supply chain. This will highlight key areas such as inventory management and stockpiling, which focuses on maintaining safety stock levels to buffer against sudden disruptions, using advanced analytics to forecast demand and manage inventory levels. It will also examine risk assessment and identification by pinpointing potential attacks, threats, and vulnerabilities within the healthcare supply chain through thorough risk assessments. Additionally, it will cover supplier base diversification, emphasizing the importance of engaging multiple suppliers to reduce dependency on a single source and enhance supply chain resilience by balancing global and local suppliers to mitigate geographic disruption risks. Furthermore, it will explore the integration of technology, leveraging innovative solutions like blockchain for enhanced transparency, security, and traceability of supply chain transactions.

GSK3-Driven Modulation of Inflammation and Tissue Integrity in the Animal Model.

Nowadays, GSK3 is accepted as an enzyme strongly involved in the regulation of inflammation by balancing the pro- and anti-inflammatory responses of cells and organisms, thus influencing the initiation, progression, and resolution of inflammatory processes at multiple levels. Disturbances within its broad functional scope, either intrinsically or extrinsically induced, harbor the risk of profound disruptions to the regular course of the immune response, including the formation of severe inflammation-related diseases. Therefore, this review aims at summarizing and contextualizing the current knowledge derived from animal models to further shape our understanding of GSK3α and β and their roles in the inflammatory process and the occurrence of tissue/organ damage. Following a short recapitulation of structure, function, and regulation of GSK3, we will focus on the lessons learned from GSK3α/β knock-out and knock-in/overexpression models, both conventional and conditional, as well as a variety of (predominantly rodent) disease models reflecting defined pathologic conditions with a significant proportion of inflammation and inflammation-related tissue injury. In summary, the literature suggests that GSK3 acts as a crucial switch driving pro-inflammatory and destructive processes and thus contributes significantly to the pathogenesis of inflammation-associated diseases.

Optimizing multi-channel procurement planning under disruption risks

Procurement plays a vital role in supply chain management, which directly affects the production, delivery, and reputation of enterprises. This paper investigates the multi-channel procurement planning problem (MCPP-R) considering the impact of disruption risk, uncertain demand and spot-market price. To meet the customer demand, the buyer can make purchases by signing a long-term contract with the primary supplier (PS), which offers certain advantages in price but may be susceptible to disruption risks. Alternatively, the buyer can enter into an option contract to retain the right to purchase from a backup supplier (BS). Additionally, the buyer can also purchase from the spot market with uncertain prices. During the procurement process, the buyer needs to decide the quantity to order from the PS and the quantity to reserve from the BS first, and then decide the quantities to reserve from a BS and the spot market respectively when the customer demand realization and spot-market price emerge. The MCPP-R is to find the optimal procurement portfolio solution with the minimum expected total procurement cost, formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming model. Due to the non-convex and non-continuous nature, the MCPP-R model is solved optimally by transforming equivalently into a shortest-path problem (SPP) with constraints. The solution method does not have specific requirements for the distribution of uncertain demand and spot-market price. We conduct extensive numerical experiments to analyze the impact of risk and uncertainty in demand and spot-market price on the procurement plan. The experimental analysis indicates that BS plays a crucial role in most cases, particularly with high disruption probability or high spot-market price.

Methotrexate Intolerance in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis: Definition, Risks, and Management.

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis is the most common rheumatic disorder in childhood and adolescence posing a significant threat of short-term and long-term disability if left untreated. Methotrexate is a folic acid analog with various immunomodulatory properties. It has demonstrated significant efficacy for the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis, often considered the preferred first-line disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug given as monotherapy or in combination with biological drugs. Despite this, there is a considerable risk for treatment disruptions owing to the high prevalence of methotrexate intolerance, with symptoms such as nausea, stomach ache, vomiting, and behavioral symptoms. Many different risk factors for the intolerance have been proposed including gender, age, disease activity, treatment duration, dosing and administration, and genetic and psychological factors. As the studies have shown contradictory results, many questions are left unanswered. Therefore, a consensus regarding outcome measures and reporting is crucial. In this review, we describe the identification and assessment of methotrexate intolerance and evaluate potential risk factors, genetic associations as well as management strategies.

Lyme Disease Confirmatory Western Blot Is Redundant for Screen Negative Samples in Low Endemic Areas, British Columbia, Canada.

Background: Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto is the causative agent of Lyme disease (LD). Possible early symptoms include flu-like symptoms and erythema migrans and later, the risk of disruption of the nervous system, joints, and heart. A two-tiered testing method is employed for serological diagnostics. The Public Health Agency of Canada guidelines recommend that samples tested negative on first-tiered test need not be confirmed by second-tiered test. Due to the challenging nature of diagnosis leading to misconceptions among physicians about false negatives, confirmatory testing is requested despite the initial negative result. Methods: Hundred screen-negative Lyme patient samples from 2007 to 2016 were tested by Western blot (WB) second-tiered confirmatory test upon physician's request in British Columbia to study the first-tiered screening test sufficiency. Results: Those negative for first-tiered enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay were also negative by WB. Conclusion: Results demonstrate that confirmatory testing is not necessary on screen-negative samples. Hence, first-tiered test is sufficient to rule out LD.

An integrated scenario-based multi-period multi-objective mathematical model for a sustainable biomass supply chain network considering social factors and disruption risk under uncertainty

An integrated scenario-based multi-period multi-objective mathematical model for a sustainable biomass supply chain network considering social factors and disruption risk under uncertainty

A review of the key ingredients in industrial formulations of baby wet wipes.

The skin of newborns is classified as sensitive, with a higher risk of skin barrier disruption and irritation of a diapered area. Despite dermatologist recommendations to use only water and a cloth for cleaning, most of the population still relies on the comforts of modern parenting, which includes intensive daily usage of baby wet wipes. Novel baby formulations are designed following the concept of infant skin health, containing a gentle cleanser, suitable emollient, and buffer system enabling a slightly acidic pH value and they are free of ethyl alcohol. Thus, it is important to understand the chemical background of such a complex liquid formulation, with emphasis on its safety. In line with this, the present paper discusses the scientific background of various chemical compounds found in baby wipe formulations to improve the understanding of wet wipe designs and direct them toward more skin-friendly solutions.

Micro-level incentives and the mechanism of import substitution in Russian public procurement

ABSTRACT Based on a large survey of manufacturing firms in 2018, this research shows that after the first wave of international sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014, along with direct preferences for domestic producers introduced by the government, Russian procurers developed specific mechanisms to stimulate import substitution and simultaneously to ensure an appropriate quality of supply. Contrary to initial expectations, our empirical analysis shows that the import of raw materials, components, or equipment itself did not limit access to public procurement for relevant suppliers. Procurers encouraged suppliers not to refuse to import (since firms without imports did not have any advantages in access to public procurement contracts), but rather to reorient their own purchases to markets where imports competed with Russian analogues and, if necessary, could be replaced by them. The import of modern equipment and technologies was extremely important for the upgrading of Russian manufacturing industry in the 2000s and 2010s. Therefore, the presence of imported inputs can be an indirect attribute of a higher quality of supply. However, international sanctions imposed in 2014 increased the risks of supply disruptions for Russian procurers. The results can be considered an example of the strategic adaptation of procurers at the micro level (outside of the direct procurement regulation) to new market conditions. These findings may be important for understanding how the Russian economy has responded to much larger and more severe international sanctions in 2022.

Analisis dan Pemodelan Proses Bisnis Katering pada UMKM Menggunakan BPMN

Fafiras Kitchen is a family business that focuses on food catering services. This business involves three main operational stages, namely the ordering process, procurement of raw materials, and delivery of products to customers. From the results of observations and interviews, several problems were identified such as the absence of good records in the ordering process resulting in errors in order fulfillment and loss of customer data, dependence on one raw material supplier increases the risk of delays and disruptions in the supply chain and inefficient delivery management caused by human error and no real time tracking, so this has an impact on customer loyalty. This research aims to analyze and model the current business process and provide recommendations for improvement. Modeling is done using Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) with a qualitative approach to investigate existing business processes. The results of this research can identify areas of improvement to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of MSMEs operations so that MSMEs can better understand, manage, and optimize their business processes. In addition, this research also conducted simulations using the Bizagi Modeler application to test the validity of the business process modeling that has been made. The simulation results show an increase in time in the implementation of business processes.

Green industrial policy can strengthen carbon pricing but not replace it

Carbon pricing has received prominent support as the key policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, in the context of heightened geopolitical tensions and risks of supply chain disruptions, policy makers are increasingly resorting to green industrial policies to support the deployment of clean energy technologies. This Perspective discusses whether this development represents a paradigm shift in the design of climate policies and assesses arguments for and against carbon pricing and green industrial policies. Our analysis addresses implications for economic efficiency, security of supply, distributional concerns and political economy issues. We find that green industrial policies can support carbon pricing by lowering market barriers for clean technology diffusion and strengthening political support for climate policy. Yet, we also emphasize that a carbon price should be an essential element in any effective climate mitigation policy mix and the key is to find the optimal policy mix for carbon pricing and green industrial policies for the unique context of each location. In the EU, green industrial policy should mainly be employed to complement carbon pricing and deal with additional market barriers. In the US, by contrast, green industrial policy could be used strategically to try to build political support for and reduce resistance to a carbon price.

Integrated resilient and sustainable gasoline supply chain model with operational and disruption risks: a case study of Iran

Integrated resilient and sustainable gasoline supply chain model with operational and disruption risks: a case study of Iran

Optimization of straw supply chain considering carbon emissions, supply uncertainty and facility disruption risk

Optimization of straw supply chain considering carbon emissions, supply uncertainty and facility disruption risk

THE CONCEPT OF RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED ANALYSIS BASED ON THE CRITERIA OF THE FINANCIAL CONDITION OF ENTERPRISES

The article is a theoretical and methodological study of risks as an important concept of enterprise management, highlighting the methodology of comprehensive risk analysis based on the criteria of the enterprise's financial condition. The essence and tasks of enterprise risk management and the place and role of analysis as a priority, all-encompassing functional component are highlighted. Analysis and assessment of the level of risks in statics and dynamics, using the integral function of the financial state of a multidimensional dynamic object, makes it possible to track the zones of unacceptable risk in the development of the enterprise. The calculation of the integrated assessment of the impact of risks on financial stability is carried out with the help of definitions of the outlined financial coefficients that characterize the potential of the financial state, the deviation from the normative and calculated values of which characterizes a certain level of risks of economic entities. The quantitative assessment of risks and the calculation of the comprehensive assessment were carried out according to groups of financial condition criteria - financial stability, liquidity, business activity, and profitability. Deviation from the normative value indicates the risk of disruption of the efficiency and financial stability of the enterprise under the influence of a number of factors of direct and indirect action. Determining the integrated assessment of risks for the researched period made it possible to follow the dynamics, identify the risks of enterprises and draw a conclusion about changes in their comprehensive assessments for all groups of criteria that are in the critical risk zone. The applied methodology allows for the development of measures and reasonable management decisions, which are taken in the short and long term to preserve the financial stability and efficiency of the enterprise. It is important to predict the prevention of risks to financial and economic efficiency and financial condition.

Healthcare Supply Chain Disruption Risks

Healthcare Supply Chain Disruption Risks