Trade Disruption Research Articles

Are R&D-intensive firms more resilient to trade shocks? Evidence from the U.S.–China trade war

We study whether research and development (R&D)-intensive Chinese firms were more resilient during the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade war. Using an event study, we confirm that (unsurprisingly) Chinese exporting firms that were most affected by the new U.S. tariffs suffered larger valuation declines than other firms. However, among those most affected, those that were R&D intensive suffered significantly less severe declines. We also identify a channel that allowed R&D-intensive firms to better absorb the trade shock: their production efficiency improved amidst the trade war, due to enhanced operational efficiency and lower operating costs. Furthermore, in response to the trade disruptions, numerous R&D-intensive Chinese companies acquired U.S. firms.

The Causal Nexus Among Energy Dependency, Human Capital, and Renewable Energy: An Empirical Analysis for EU Members

Countries have turned to developing renewable energy production, avoiding the risks posed by the disruptions in global energy trade, the high volatility in energy prices, and the remarkable environmental impairment. Numerous economic, environmental, institutional, and social factors have been put forward as driving factors toward renewable energy. The goal of this research article is to study the causal nexus among energy dependency, human capital, real GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, and renewable energy of the 27 EU members between 2000 and 2020 through Emirmahmutoglu and Kose causality test. The results of the panel-level causality tests demonstrate feedback interplay among energy dependency, human capital, real GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, and renewable energy use. However, the results of the country-level causality analysis unveil that the interplay among renewable energy utilization, energy dependency, real GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, and human capital remarkably varies among EU members. The results of this study suggest that renewable energy investments are significant instruments to make progress in energy security, human capital, real GDP per capita, and CO2 emissions. Furthermore, energy security, human capital, real GDP per capita, and CO2 emissions are significant drivers of renewable energy development.

Russian-Ukraine War and its Impact on the European Economy

This study examines the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the economy of Europe, concentrating on trade disruptions, energy security, foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, and the socioeconomic ramifications of the war[1]induced refugee crisis. This study employs the descriptive research design, qualitative research method and a secondary source of data collection. The research uncovers the problems and possibilities coming from the war, as well as the larger implications for economic growth, development, and stability in the area. The results reveal severe interruptions to commercial links between European nations, especially Russia, and Ukraine, with key sectors such as energy, manufacturing, and agriculture facing considerable disruptions. Energy security emerges as a significant worry, spurring attempts to diversify energy sources and lessen dependence on Russian supply. Meanwhile, the war has resulted in a drop in FDI inflows to Russia and Ukraine, aggravating economic concerns in both nations and hurting their growth prospects. Furthermore, the research shows the burden on social welfare systems in European nations hosting migrants, since the inflow of refugees exerts great demands on resources and capabilities. Investments in housing, health care, education, and social welfare are vital for satisfying the different needs of displaced people and facilitating their long-term integration into society. However, issues connected to social cohesiveness, community connections, and political dynamics within host nations also occur. The study recommends diplomatic resolution of the dispute through peaceful discussions, involving European Union (EU) member states- Russia, Ukraine, and other parties. This could involve neutral mediation, de-escalating initiatives, and confidence-building measures.

Public health emergencies and international trade in the context of global value chains: Evidence from COVID‐19 in China

AbstractIn recent years, there has been a notable increase in the frequency of public health emergencies (PHE), which pose a substantial threat to the global supply and demand equilibrium as well as the stability of the global value chains (GVC). The article takes the example of the COVID‐19 pandemic and utilises China's foreign trade monthly data spanning from 2018 to 2021 for an empirical analysis of how COVID‐19 affected China's import and export trade, as well as its participation in GVC collaborations. The findings are as follows: (1) The proliferation of COVID‐19 significantly and negatively impacted China's export trade, while its impact on China's import trade was insignificant. (2) The impact of the COVID‐19 on processing trade exports was more pronounced compared to general trade exports, highlighting the detrimental effect of the pandemic on GVC collaboration. (3) The adverse influence of the COVID‐19 on China's foreign trade and GVC cooperation primarily stemmed from its impact on international effective demand. (4) The pandemic exerted a more substantial negative effect on processing trade involving supplied materials with low production value added compared to processing trade involving imported materials with high value added. And it had a greater adverse impact on low‐tech products as opposed to high‐tech products, indicating that industries with higher value‐added and high‐tech products exhibited greater resilience in the face of trade disruptions by COVID‐19.

Trade risk transmission of global cobalt industrial chain based on multi-layer network

In order to study the potential systemic risk transmission in cobalt trade, this paper combined the infectious disease model with complex networks to build a multi-layer network trade risk transmission model for cobalt trade based on the transmission of export restrictions and bilateral friction in a single country, in order to simulate the degree of impact of risk transmission in cobalt industry chain, identify key countries and risk transmission paths. The results show that multi-layer network risk transmission of global cobalt trade based on two communication forms has the characteristics of “robust and fragile”. In addition, the risk transmission situation based on bilateral frictions is mainly transmitted by core countries and direct contacts. The risk transmission based on the export restriction of a single country is mainly through direct contact, indirect contact and regional transmission. We also find that the multi-layer trade network of global cobalt trade can resist the bilateral frictional transmission mode better than the transmission mode of single country export restriction. The results can support policy makers to optimize the cobalt trade structure and mitigate the negative impact of trade disruptions.

A comprehensive biochemical and epidemiological review of avian influenza: Mechanisms, pharmacology and emerging trends in treatment

Avian influenza viruses, particularly H5N1, H7N9, and H9N2, pose significant threats to avian and human populations through zoonotic transmission, as they have potential to change their genetic material through mutations. Symptoms of Avian Influenza ranges from mild to severe, mainly respiratory problems in both and muscle aches, fatigue in humans. This review highlights the molecular mechanisms by which the virus infects host cells, emphasizing the roles of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) in viral entry and release. Biochemical processes involved in viral replication, immune responses, and cytokine production are discussed, with a detailed examination of how antiviral drugs like neuraminidase and polymerase inhibitors disrupt these processes. Outbreak of AIV can cause mass culling results in massive economic loss, trade disruptions, and consumer reductions. The review also addresses the challenges posed by antiviral resistance and outlines novel therapeutic strategies, including combination therapies, vaccine advancements, and host-directed treatments. With an interdisciplinary “One Health” approach, this paper underscores the need for enhanced biosecurity, international cooperation, and continued research to mitigate the global impact of avian influenza.

Structural changes in the foreign sector and its consequences for the economy of Ukraine

The paper defines the essence and role of the external sector in the development of the national economy. It has been studied that the main endogenous and exogenous factors affecting the state and structure of the external sector of the national economy are globalization, technological progress, foreign economic policy and economic integration. The impact of the war on the development of the external sector of Ukraine's economy is substantiated. In particular, the main consequences of the impact of the war on the external sector of Ukraine's economy are the disruption of trade, the insecurity of investments, and the instability of the national currency. It was analyzed that during the period 2020-2022, the deficit of foreign trade in goods and services of Ukraine increased significantly, by more than two times. This negative trend was due to a significant reduction in the export of Ukrainian goods caused by military actions, which led to a decrease in production and complications with logistics. On the other hand, the import of goods to Ukraine decreased slightly. An important aspect is that the share of raw materials in the export structure is constantly growing. Only in the period of 2021-2022, the share of raw products in the export structure increased by as much as 13.3%, which is of a threatening nature in general for the national security of Ukraine. The structure of imports almost did not change, but the volume of imports also decreased, although significantly less than exports. Such a reduction in imports, especially in 2022, is dictated by the contraction of Ukraine's economy, primarily the level of consumption. Since at least 3 million people left Ukraine during the war, inflation and devaluation of the national currency increased, and the economy was partially transferred to military lines. It has been established that a chronic deficit in the balance of goods and services can lead to the accumulation of external imbalances and negatively affect the stability of the country's economy. The analysis of the external debt structure of the Ukrainian economy reveals both challenges and opportunities. While the high level of external debt poses risks to economic stability, it also highlights the need for prudent fiscal management, structural reforms and investment in key sectors. By solving these challenges and using its strengths, Ukraine will be able to manage the dynamics of external debt and build a sustainable and growing economy.

Using EPIWATCH® open-source surveillance to describe the epidemiology of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in South and Southeast Asia (2022-2023).

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) poses a significant threat to animal welfare and leads to economic losses in affected countries. LSD outbreaks may also impact trade and regional relationships. South and Southeast Asia, with its dense livestock population and intricate trade networks, are susceptible to LSD outbreaks. Indonesia confirmed its first LSD cases in March 2022, leading to substantial livestock losses by August 2023. Australia, an important player in the global beef industry, faced trade disruptions due to LSD concerns raised by Indonesia and Malaysia, claims that were refuted by Australian authorities. The dispute highlights the need for good surveillance. EPIWATCH®, employing artificial intelligence, provides real-time outbreak signals, and spatial analysis can identify LSD hotspots, leading to timely interventions. This study uses data collected by the EPIWATCH® open-source disease surveillance system at the University of New South Wales in 2022 and 2023 and compares it for timeliness and completeness with data available on the World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS). We found more timely reports of LSD outbreaks in EPIWATCH® compared to WAHIS. In conclusion, open-source surveillance tools like EPIWATCH® can provide timely alerts of disease emergence, such as LSD outbreaks in South and Southeast Asia, which can supplement formal reporting systems.

The Red Sea Crisis: Implications of The Houthi Attack on Maritime Trade and Global Security

The study explores the impact of the Houthi group's missile and drone attacks on Israeli commercial ships in the Red Sea, focusing on the broader implications for regional stability, maritime and global trade security. The strategic position of the Red Sea as an important trade route connecting the Middle East with Asia and Europe has made it an important area of international attention, especially after the Houthi attacks in November 2023. The research uses a qualitative approach, analysing data from a variety of sources including academic literature, official reports, and news articles. The findings highlight that the Houthi attacks have caused significant disruptions in maritime trade, with the capacity of container ships in the Red Sea decreasing by 80 percent as ships moved around Africa, resulting in higher costs and longer travel times. In addition, the attacks have exacerbated regional tensions and required increased military patrols by international forces. The study concludes that the ongoing Houthi aggression poses a serious threat not only to regional stability but also to global trade and security, and calls for coordinated international efforts to mitigate this impact.

World War II and Industrialization Policies in Latin America: The Cases of Argentina and Brazil

Abstract Raúl Prebisch and Celso Furtado were two important contributors to development economics and to the theories and policies defended by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC). In this article, we argue that understanding their ideas, and how industrialization became a key concern, requires paying closer attention to the geopolitical changes brought by World War II. We discuss how Argentina and Brazil, their home countries, navigated the troubled waters brought by the war and the international trade disruptions and turned state-led industrialization into a key development strategy. After the war, the United States became the new hegemonic power and adopted a universalist foreign policy, based on the newly created international agencies. At home, the internationalist businessmen promoted the partnership capitalism that became central to the foreign policy during the Truman administration and onwards, making industrialization a key interest. Internationalism was also the way that Latin American countries used to counteract the US hegemony even before the war, which culminated in the creation of ECLAC after the war. The intellectual paths of Prebisch and Furtado toward industrialization policies were shaped by the changing international order and by local developments in their countries including the building of a more scientific statistical system that would better help the state to design development policies.

The socioeconomic impacts of Rift Valley fever: A rapid review.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a neglected vector-borne disease which is endemic in many countries across Africa and has seen recent geographical expansions into the Arabian Peninsula. RVF can cause severe infections in both animals and humans. RVF infections in livestock can lead to mass fatalities. In humans, the symptoms are nonspecific and can often lead to misdiagnosis. However, a small proportion progresses to haemorrhagic infection with a significantly higher mortality rate. The culmination of this can cause severe socioeconomic impacts. This review aims to identify the main socioeconomic impacts caused by RVF outbreaks as well as existing knowledge gaps. Ninety-three academic and grey papers were selected, covering 19 countries and 10 methodological approaches. A variety of socioeconomic impacts were found across all levels of society: Livestock trade disruptions consequently impacted local food security, local and national economies. Most livestock farmers in endemic countries are subsistence farmers and so rely on their livestock for sustenance and income. RVF outbreaks resulted in a variety of socioeconomic impacts, e.g., the inability to pay for school fees. Main barriers to vaccine uptake in communities were lack of access, funds, interest along with other social aspects. The occupational risks for women (and pregnant women) are largely unknown. To our knowledge, this is the first review on RVF to highlight the clear knowledge gap surrounding the potential gender differences on risks of RVF exposure, as well as differences on occupational health risk in pastoral communities. Further work is required to fill the gaps identified in this review and inform control policies.

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF WAR IN UKRAINE: A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS

The armed conflict that erupted in Ukraine has had profound economic ramifications, not only for the country itself but also for the wider region. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, exploring its impact on various sectors and long-term development prospects. Drawing upon a range of primary and secondary data sources, the study presents a multifaceted assessment of the economic effects, considering both immediate and long-term implications. The paper examines the direct costs of the conflict, including the destruction of infrastructure, loss of human capital, and disruption of production and trade. It investigates the impact on key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, energy, and finance, highlighting the challenges faced by businesses and the labor market. It examines the role of external financial assistance and the effectiveness of economic policies implemented during the crisis. Finally, the study concludes by synthesizing the key findings on the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine. These recommendations encompass both short-term measures to address immediate challenges and long-term strategies to foster sustainable economic development and reconciliation. This comprehensive analysis of the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine contributes to the existing literature by providing a nuanced understanding of the multifaceted impacts of the conflict. It offers valuable insights for policymakers, international organizations, and researchers seeking to comprehend and address the economic challenges arising from war-affected regions.

Economic impact and food security effects of trade disruptions in agricultural products for Sweden

The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conditions in 2022–2023 highlighted the vulnerabilities of food supply chains to trade disruptions in agricultural inputs and foods, with the ensuing economic effects on producers and consumers. This study calculated the impact of various disruptions in the trade of agricultural inputs and outputs for Swedish producers and consumers and for food security. To this end, a mathematical programming model of the food sector with a spatial dimension was applied, which accounts for adjustments and interactions between producers and consumers of food. Food security is measured in terms of the self-sufficiency ratio, the ability to produce minimum dietary needs, and economic access for low-income households. The trade scenarios included disruptions to imports of agricultural inputs (fertilisers, fuel, feed, pesticides and foreign labour) and foods. The results showed that the economic effects for producers can be considerable, with a reduction in producer surplus by up to 75%. The decrease in consumer surplus is smaller, amounting to a maximum decrease of 21%. The self-sufficiency ratio and the ability to produce minimum dietary needs can be reduced by 55% and 61%, respectively, but may rise if the disruption to feed imports increases. Economic access to foods is slightly decreased in all scenarios. These results showing different impacts of trade disruptions on producers and consumers and food security metrics highlight the need to undertake extensive assessments to determine whether and how to prevent and mitigate their effects. The economic effects on producers and consumers and the associated impacts on food security are likely to differ, which affects the selection and targeting of policies, such as compensation for economic losses and promotion of food security.

Impacts of geopolitics and policy on Latin American biodiversity and water resources

AbstractLatin America is a major agricultural producer with important natural resources. Efforts have been made to protect sensitive areas but are hindered by agricultural trade disruptions outside the control of individual countries due to globally integrated crop markets. This analysis assesses the effects of two trade shocks, that is, the war in Ukraine and vehicle decarbonization in the United States (US), on biodiversity and water resources in Latin America. Results show that an increase in maize and wheat exports from the region triggered by the war in Ukraine negatively affects biodiversity in Brazil and leads to cropland expansion into drought‐prone areas in Argentina and Chile. For the case of reduced crop exports from Latin America due to US vehicle decarbonization and the corresponding shift away from US maize ethanol, the pressure on arable land in areas of high biodiversity and water stress is eased. As opposed to agricultural carbon emissions, which have global impacts, biodiversity and water issues have a strong local and regional significance. Regulatory frameworks aiming to protect these regions should be forward looking to detect and shield vulnerable areas from future threats. Other changes affecting global agriculture and trade, for example, sustainable aviation fuels in the US or the European Farm‐to‐Fork policy, need to be anticipated for effective policies in Latin America [EconLit Citations: Q13, Q25, Q34, Q56].

Adapting To The Global Economic Downturn In Indonesia: Harnessing Fiscal And Monetary Instruments

The study evaluates the efficiency of fiscal and monetary measures mitigating the worldwide economic downturn impacted Indonesia's economy. During the crisis, Indonesia faced challenges such as trade disruptions, decreased export demand, and financial sector experiences liquidity issues. Bank Indonesia implemented accommodative monetary policies, including interest rate adjustments, to stabilize financial markets and support economic recovery. The Indonesian government pursued an expansive fiscal policy, increasing government spending on infrastructure and social welfare programs to stimulate economic activity and mitigate social unrest. Tax incentives and relief measures were introduced to support businesses and stimulate investment, while targeted subsidies were provided to specific industries. Despite challenges such as fiscal constraints and external shocks, these policy measures contributed to reducing the crisis's impact, promoting economic resilience, and fostering sustainable development in Indonesia. Continuous evaluation and adaptation of policy frameworks are recommended to address emerging challenges effectively in the future.

From farm to fork? Brexit and the International Plant Protection Convention

Import and export controls ensure plant pests and diseases harmful to food production, the plants across our landscape, and ecosystem services, are not moved during trade. The ‘International Plant Protection Convention’ (IPPC) provides the framework for applying preventive measures where they are technically justified, and stipulates controls are not to be used as arbitrary restrictions on international trade. This article examines the aims of the Brexit trade agreements and reviews their alignment with the IPPC and other World Trade Organisation agreements. It argues that unjustified controls have been applied under the guise of protective requirements (contributing to EU-GB trade disruption) and identifies a divergence at the point of regulatory implementation of these laws and treaties by official bodies on both sides. The article reviews the position of Northern Ireland, which, to avoid a ‘hard border’ on the island of Ireland, remains under the European Union (EU)'s plant health (phytosanitary) regime. Reflecting on legislative options available to bring the application of plant health regulations into alignment with the IPPC (such as dispute resolution), these options remain unused. However, the possibility of utilising ‘import authorisations’ would leave neither Great Britain nor EU Member States exposed to any greater environmental risk than that under the single market.

How resilient was international trade to Covid-19? Insights from clusters of European countries

The Covid-19 crisis spread worldwideat lightningspeed mainly due to the interconnectedness of today's economies as evidenced by major disruptions in international trade. This articleaims to assessthe possible shifts that coronavirus disease has triggered inthe trade activity of European countriesin two particularly affected sectors, that is foodand machinery and transport equipment. In this process, exploratory data analysis is conductedtoaccurately explain the patterns lying behind the observed variations in trade values. Furthermore, clusteranalysis is performedonthe sample of European countries by applying hierarchical and K-means clustering algorithms using Python's libraries. Byexamining clusters of countries with similar trade profiles, this article contributes to discussions on global value chains, and to which extent there is data-based evidence to indicate systemic changes and reconfiguration ofglobal production processes.

Real-Time Face Mask Detection Using MobileNet V2

Abstract: The rapid disruption of international trade and travel caused by the COVID-19 epidemic has had an impact on our daily lives. The custom of donning a face mask for protection has evolved. In the near future, a lot of public service providers will demand that clients wear appropriate masks in order to use their services. Identification of face masks is becoming a crucial duty to support world culture. This paper outlines a condensed method for accomplishing this goal utilizing certain fundamental machine learning tools, such as TensorFlow, Keras, OpenCV, and Scikit-Learn. The project's goal is to identify face masks at a public event or gathering. MobileNet V2 is the algorithm employed in the project to accomplish the goal. There is a picture of a few people with and without masks. As an input dataset, a picture of a few individuals wearing and not wearing masks is employed. Pre- processing, data augmentation, training, testing, and image segmentation are some of the steps that go into reaching the project's goal. Creating a model that can identify people who are not wearing masks in public settings is the goal of this project. To guarantee adherence to the standards for public safety, this work can be combined with real-time applications at airports, train stations, businesses,schools, and other public locations.

Socio-Economic Impacts of Endemic and Epidemic Diseases on Livestock Production Systems in Tanzania

Purpose: The aim of the study was to examine socio-economic impacts of endemic and epidemic diseases on livestock production systems in Tanzania. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: The study revealed that endemic diseases such as brucellosis, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), and contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) pose ongoing challenges to livestock health, productivity, and household livelihoods. Epidemic diseases like avian influenza and peste des petits ruminants (PPR) can cause sudden outbreaks, leading to acute disruptions in production and trade. These disease outbreaks result in various socio-economic consequences, including decreased livestock productivity, loss of income for farmers, increased veterinary and containment costs, and disruptions in domestic and international trade. Additionally, diseases can exacerbate poverty and food insecurity among rural communities reliant on livestock for sustenance and income generation. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Economic theory of disease control & social-ecological systems theory may be used to anchor future studies on socio-economic impacts of endemic and epidemic diseases on livestock production systems in Tanzania. Building technical capacity at the grassroots level empowers communities to implement effective disease management strategies and adopt biosecurity measures. Establishing community-based disease surveillance systems that empower local communities to monitor and report disease outbreaks in livestock populations. Providing financial support and risk-sharing mechanisms mitigate economic losses and encourage proactive disease management practices. Establish data-sharing mechanisms and surveillance networks that facilitate real-time exchange of information on disease outbreaks, epidemiological trends, and economic impacts.

DETOURS AND DELAYS: NAVIGATING THE PANDEMIC'S IMPACT ON INDIA'S TRANSPORT SECTOR AND TOURISM

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the Indian transport industry, affecting various sectors such as aviation, railways, road transport, and maritime. The nationwide lockdowns and travel restrictions imposed to curb the spread of the virus led to a significant decline in passenger traffic and freight movement, causing severe financial distress to the industry. This almost standstill in the movement of the people severely affected the Indian tourism industry which provides 7 per cent of GDP and 9 per cent of employment by 2019. The aviation sector witnessed a sharp decline in passenger traffic, leading to financial losses for airlines and airports. Many airlines were forced to suspend operations or reduce their workforce to survive. Similarly, the Indian Railways faced challenges due to the suspension of passenger trains, impacting revenue generation. The road transport sector also suffered due to the lockdowns, with restrictions on inter-state and intra-state movement affecting the movement of goods and passengers. The maritime sector faced challenges due to disruptions in global trade and port operations. To mitigate the impact of the pandemic, the Indian government announced various relief measures, including financial assistance, waivers, and restructuring of loans for the transport industry. The government also launched initiatives such as the Vande Bharat Mission to repatriate stranded Indians and the One Nation, One Card scheme for seamless travel across different modes of transport. By recognising the importance of the revival of tourism in India Indian Government announced many sops and reliefs to the tour operators, travel agents and transport organisations. Despite these measures, the road to recovery for the Indian transport industry remains challenging. The industry will need to adapt to the new normal by implementing safety measures, embracing digital technologies, and diversifying its operations to ensure resilience in future crises. KEYWORDS: Covid -19, Road transport, Railways, Civil aviation, Tourism