Infrastructure Disruptions Research Articles

Integration of Critical Infrastructure and Societal Consequence Models: Impact on Swedish Power System Mitigation Decisions.

Critical infrastructures provide society with services essential to its functioning, and extensive disruptions give rise to large societal consequences. Risk and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures generally focus narrowly on the infrastructure of interest and describe the consequences as nonsupplied commodities or the cost of unsupplied commodities; they rarely holistically consider the larger impact with respect to higher-order consequences for the society. From a societal perspective, this narrow focus may lead to severe underestimation of the negative effects of infrastructure disruptions. To explore this theory, an integrated modeling approach, combining models of critical infrastructures and economic input-output models, is proposed and applied in a case study. In the case study, a representative model of the Swedish power transmission system and a regionalized economic input-output model are utilized. This enables exploration of how a narrow infrastructure or a more holistic societal consequence perspective affects vulnerability-related mitigation decisions regarding critical infrastructures. Two decision contexts related to prioritization of different vulnerability-reducing measures are considered-identifying critical components and adding system components to increase robustness. It is concluded that higher-order societal consequences due to power supply disruptions can be up to twice as large as first-order consequences, which in turn has a significant effect on the identification of which critical components are to be protected or strengthened and a smaller effect on the ranking of improvement measures in terms of adding system components to increase system redundancy.

Characterizing Infrastructure Resilience in Disasters Using Dynamic Network Analysis of Consumers’ Service Disruption Patterns

This study proposes a network analysis framework for characterizing infrastructure resilience in the aftermath of disasters through the use of consumers’ service disruption information. In the presented framework, the notion of “peers” is used to construct the network models of consumers experiencing service disruption in the aftermath of a disaster to understand the type and extent of infrastructure damages and specify disruption patterns. Data related to electricity disruption in Bhaktapur, Nepal, in the aftermath of the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake is used to construct the network models of consumers’ networks at different points in time in the aftermath of the disaster. The created models are then used in network analysis for examining the network topological characteristics (such as clustering) and specifying the attributes of service disruption. The contribution of this paper lie in: (i) the development and validation of a novel network from disruption information, (ii) identify the extent of infrastructure disruption, type of damage, and recoverability from changes in network topology over time.

Evaluation of Preferences for Alternative Transportation Services and Loyalty towards Active Transportation during a Major Transportation Infrastructure Disruption

This paper investigates active transportation mode users’ preferences for alternative services during the temporary closure event of a bridge and its active transportation (AT) lanes. It also evaluates the loyalty of AT users during the event. The study uses data from a travel survey distributed to cyclists and pedestrians, who are the regular AT lane users of the Macdonald Bridge in Halifax, Canada. Random parameter logit models are developed in this study that examine the effects of socio-demographic, travel and neighborhood characteristics on active transportation users’ preferences. Four alternative transportation services are considered in this study: free shuttle services, frequent ferry services, frequent bus services and other services. Results suggest that higher-income individuals are more likely to prefer frequent ferry services during the AT lane closure event. Transit commuters are found to prefer frequent bus services. Probability of preferring free shuttle services increases if individuals use AT lanes for cost savings. Loyalty towards AT is explored in this study by means of anticipated modal shift. For instance, higher mixed land use area dwellers tend to be loyal towards AT during the disruption event, as demonstrated by their lower probability to shift from current AT mode. This study offers critical behavioral insights, which would assist transportation planning and policies that aim to adopt sustainable transportation planning measures to retain current users’ loyalty towards active transportation and prevent a long-term behavioral shift.

Using Agent Simulations to Evaluate the Effect of a Regional BCP on Disaster Response

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake caused severe damage to economic activities and livelihood of residents by disrupting the supply chains of common resources, such as food, water, roads, and other infrastructure. This disaster has made recovery difficult for businesses in the region. The importance of addressing BCP in regional areas was made clear by the 2004 Niigataken Chuetsu earthquake and the 2007 Niigataken Chuetsu-oki earthquake. The 2011 Greate East Japan earthquake revealed that individual business continuity efforts were interrupted by disruption of common infrastructure. Therefore, a new concept of a region-wide business continuity plans (BCP) that focuses on collaboration among stakeholders, including private corporations, local government, and communities, was urgently required to enhance the resilience of the region against disasters. A new concept of Area BCP was proposed by JICA and Prefectural-scale District BCP was formulated by prefectural governments of Kyoto and Kagawa.In order to evaluate the effect of the presence of a regional BCP on disaster response, this study focuses on one of the most important elements of a regional BCP: the disaster relief chain information-sharing factor. Based on the supply of relief goods from the distribution center in Tosu City, Saga Prefecture to the evacuation centers in Kumamoto Prefecture during the Kumamoto earthquake, the evaluation was conducted by quantitative analysis using agent simulations of relief logistics.

A Multi-Scenario Probabilistic Simulation Approach for Critical Transportation Network Risk Assessment

The reliability, survivability and vulnerability of critical infrastructure systems has received significant attention of the past several decades. Transportation systems are among the many critical lifelines that urban areas and their associated communities are dependent upon. Disruptions to these systems have the potential to create significant human suffering and severe economic damage. As a result, the ability to proactively assess response and recovery options is critical for emergency preparedness in urban areas. Unfortunately, the vast majority of infrastructure disruption studies are deterministic in nature, exploring the impact of node and arc losses with pre-defined interdiction scenarios and ignoring the underlying dynamism of extreme events. We advance existing knowledge by presenting a probabilistic approach for simulating a range of disruption scenarios and for identifying critical links within the network. Specifically, our approach takes advantage of Monte Carlo simulation, network-wide demand modeling and regression analysis to address the probabilistic nature of disaster effects and the joint impacts of network link failures. Using Salt Lake County, Utah as the study area, the resulting analysis effectively identifies and ranks links based on their vulnerability and criticality. The proposed method is easily transferable to any transportation network, regardless of scale, topology or extreme event.

Perceptions of cascading risk and interconnected failures in emergency planning: Implications for operational resilience and policy making

Cascading events and the disruption of interconnected critical infrastructure (CI) are a well-known challenge for emergency planning and management. Although new modelling and forecasting tools are increasing the availability of mitigation options, further work is needed to consolidate good policies and practices.This paper presents a case study on London, United Kingdom (UK). It develops an integrative research process with local stakeholders aimed at applying the theory of cascading disasters in London's response and preparedness strategies. A mixed method approach is adopted to explore the awareness of cascading risk, the perception of possible mitigation measures, and the current levels of training amongst the stakeholders of the London Resilience Partnerships. Specific items investigate the relation of cascades with cross- border crisis management, and climate change.The results propose new quantitative and qualitative evidence that highlights the divergence between risk awareness and its integration in policies and practices, discussing options for improving multi- agency coordination and organisational resilience. The conclusions define a list of actions that should be strategic priorities for policies and decision makers, such as the improvement of inter-modal coordination and the release of open access guidelines, proposing new open questions for scholars in the field.

Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Inundation: A Case Study of the Gulf Coast Energy Infrastructure

The United States (U.S.) Gulf Coast is a prominent global energy hub with a set of highly integrated critical energy infrastructure that rivals, if not surpasses, any comparable set of infrastructure anywhere in the world. Past extreme weather events in the region have led to critical energy infrastructure disruptions with national and global implications. Future sea-level rise (SLR), coupled with other natural hazards, will lead to a significant increase in energy infrastructure damage exposure. This research assesses coastal energy infrastructure that is at risk from various fixed SLR outcomes and scenarios. The results indicate that natural gas processing plants that treat and process natural gas before moving it into the interstate natural gas transmission system may be particularly vulnerable to inundation than other forms of critical energy infrastructure. Under certain SLR assumptions, as much as six Bcfd (eight percent of all U.S. natural gas processing capacity) could be inundated. More extreme SLR exposure assumptions result in greater levels of energy infrastructure capacity exposure including as much as 39 percent of all U.S. refining capacity based on current operating levels. This research and its results show that while fossil fuel industries are often referenced as part of the climate change problem, these industries will likely be more than proportionally exposed to the negative impacts of various climate change outcomes relative to other industrial sectors of the U.S. economy. This has important implications for the U.S. and global energy supplies and costs, as well as for the U.S. regional economies reliant on coastal energy infrastructure and its supporting industries.

At the Starting Post: Racing Venues and the Origins of Thoroughbred Racing in Kentucky, 1783–1865

At the Starting Post:Racing Venues and the Origins of Thoroughbred Racing in Kentucky, 1783–1865 Gary A. O'Dell (bio) The citizens of Kentucky, and of the Bluegrass region in particular, have been famously preoccupied with racing spirited horses since the pioneer era, when communities were little more than huddles of primitive cabins in the wilderness and competitions were impulsive sprints through muddy streets still dotted with occasional tree stumps. The first equines brought into Kentucky by the pioneers were all, by necessity, working horses required for taming a wilderness and the needs of a burgeoning agricultural society, but even these common sorts were pitted against one another in races. Among the settlers, however, were men of wealth and a sporting disposition who soon began to import Thoroughbreds from the east, horses described as "hot-blooded" and bred strictly for speed on the racecourse.1 Horseracing was the first spectator sport in America, and by 1800, nearly every significant community in the Bluegrass had established a racecourse of its own, much like present-day small towns erect and support high school football stadiums. Most of these early competitions were "flat" races, in which horses competed on a level racecourse over a predetermined distance, controlled by jockeys mounted on their backs. Most, but not all, flat [End Page 29] racing involved Thoroughbred horses. The sport is comprised of three interrelated components: Thoroughbred horses; the breeders, trainers, jockeys, and other ancillary personnel; and the supporting infrastructure, including the horse farms, racing associations (jockey clubs), and racecourses. Many of the historical accounts of Thoroughbred racing are little more than hagiographies of prominent horses and horsemen of the nineteenth century, focusing upon such celebrated equine heroes as Grey Eagle and Lexington and turf magnates such as Elisha Warfield and Robert Aitcheson Alexander and their lavish Bluegrass estates.2 Recent scholarship, particularly contributions by Maryjean Wall, Katherine Mooney, and James C. Nicholson, has provided more critical examinations of the development and growth of the sport.3 Kentucky's early racing infrastructure has received less attention in the histories; even the best usually contains little more than a brief reference to early quarter-horse racing, the founding of the Kentucky Jockey Club in 1797 and the Kentucky Association in 1826, and then skips to the establishment of Churchill Downs in 1875—as if little of significance had occurred during the intervening half century or in any location other than Lexington or Louisville. By examining primary sources such as advertisements for race meetings in early newspapers and race results published in sporting journals, along with secondary sources, it is possible to reconstruct the hitherto overlooked developmental chronology and geographic distribution of venues for racing in Kentucky prior to the Civil War and to examine the periodic decline and resurgence of the sport during the period. Although turfmen in Lexington—and to a lesser extent Louisville—developed [End Page 30] a stable racing organization and infrastructure in the decades prior to the Civil War, most other communities in the state struggled to maintain such organizations and racing venues. The numerous small tracks and county associations that often existed for only five to ten years at a time show that alongside the story of long-term professionalization and success in building a horse industry in Kentucky, there is a larger story of false starts and failure in the decades before the Civil War. Early Racing Venues in the Bluegrass Region At the time of Kentucky's settlement, the Thoroughbred horse was a relatively recent innovation in the equine world. This fast-paced, high-spirited breed had been developed in England during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries by crossing native mares with so-called Oriental stallions—Arabian, Barb, and Turkmen horses imported from the Middle East. The importation of British Thoroughbreds to North America was interrupted during the Revolutionary period, although many blood horses brought over by English officers were captured and subsequently became part of American pedigrees. Conversely, the British confiscated American horses for use as military load haulers and cavalry mounts, and often spitefully destroyed some of the finest breeding stock. The disruption of equine livestock and infrastructure was particularly severe in Virginia, essentially bringing the sport...

Latin American and Caribbean earthquakes in the GEM’s Earthquake Consequences Database (GEMECD)

Among the activities developed under the framework of the Global Earthquake Model, the development of a global consequences database was included. This was defined with the objective of serving as public repository of damages and losses, occurred on different types of elements because of a selected list of earthquakes with epicentres at varying locations around the globe, but also to be used as a benchmark for the development of vulnerability models that capture specific characteristics of the building typologies in each country. The online earthquakes consequences’ database has information on 71 events where 16 of them occurred in the Latin America and the Caribbean Region. A complete and comprehensive review and data gathering process were developed for these selected earthquakes accounting for different aspects and dimensions that were considered of interest, besides the physical damage, such as casualties, socio-economic implications, damages and disruptions in critical facilities and infrastructures, together with the occurrence of secondary events triggered by the ground shaking such as landslides and tsunamis. When possible, the damage and casualties were geo-located using a standardized approach and included in the database. The contributions of the Latin America and Caribbean Region to the database were at the same time a challenge and an opportunity to collect, review, put together and standardize, up to a certain point, damage data of previous earthquakes additionally of being a step forward in the field of open data.

Sex, gender, and disasters: Experimental evidence on the decision to invest in resilience

Increasing sensitivity to terrorism, economic volatility, frequent and severe natural disasters, and infrastructure disruptions has intensified interest in resilience, the ability to withstand or recover from catastrophe. The growing research on disaster preparedness and recovery policies have been aggregate-level analyses focusing on communities, organizations, or the physical environments. Absent from this literature is an exploration of the role of individual decision-makers in determining the resilience strategies of firms, even though the hardiness of business is crucial to maintaining robust local, regional, and global economies. To address this, our research uses a randomized controlled experimental design to examine whether biological sex or gender diversity might lead to decision-making that improves investments in resilience to calamitous events. We study decisions related to a core resilience strategy, investment in inventories, across professional manager and student subject pools. We find that although females perceive a higher probability of a catastrophic event, male and female subjects do not make different investment decisions when faced with uncertainty and risk. Importantly, a gender construct capturing congruence with feminine personality attributes does correspond with increased resilience investment and is driven by differences between managers and students. Increased gender diversity in decision-making bodies may serve to improve economic resilience of firms and other organizations.

A spatial-temporal vulnerability assessment to support the building of community resilience against power outage impacts

Power outages are among the most serious Critical Infrastructure (CI) disruptions and require effective disaster management with collaboration of affected CI providers and disaster management authorities. To support building community resilience, we introduce a vulnerability assessment which allows an enhanced spatial-temporal understanding of initial power outage impacts. Using the assessment enables planers to better identify which and when CIs become vulnerable and how important they are in comparison to other CIs before the overall crisis situation escalates and unmanageable cascading effects occur. The assessment addresses the initial phase of a power outage and corresponding early measures of local risk and crisis management organizations according to the German disaster management system. The assessment is an indicator-based approach which is extended to consider time-depending effects through time-referenced demand and the depletion of Coping Capacity Resources (CCR). The estimation of the relevance of CIs regarding the provision of vital services and products is addressed by a modified Delphi method. In addition, an expert survey was conducted to shed light on the evaluation of coping resources. In this paper, we describe the components of the assessment and propose different aggregation approaches which each enhances the understanding of spatial-temporal impacts of a power outage, and, hence, increases the forecasting capability for disaster management authorities. For demonstration purposes, the assessment is implemented for the case of the city of Mannheim, Germany.

Travel Behavior Reactions to Transit Service Disruptions

Major transit infrastructure disruptions have become more frequent because of increasing maintenance needs for aging infrastructure, system failures, and disasters. Understanding travel behavior reactions to service disruptions on the basis of empirical observations is a fundamental step toward planning and operating an efficient and reliable transportation system. Few studies in the literature have investigated the behavioral and system impact of transit service disruptions. To bridge this gap in the literature, this research investigated travel behavioral reactions to transit service disruptions during the Metro SafeTrack projects in Washington, D.C., with the use of a unique panel survey. This study offers new insights on multimodal, multidimensional travel behavioral responses to major transit network disruptions, a critically theoretical prerequisite for developing and implementing effective strategies (e.g., how to deploy the reserve bus fleet optimally) that minimize system impact and improve transit system reliability and resilience.

Clustered into Control: Causal Impacts of Water Infrastructure Failure

The causal economic impacts of water infrastructure disruptions in OECD countriesare largely unknown. Using details of water main break events in Washington, DC, and hourly traffic speeds for 2,182 road segments in a quasi-experimental difference-in-difference design, we estimate the causal effect of main failure on congestion. We use k-means clustering to match treated road segments to control segments. Although precisely estimated, the magnitude of our treatment effects is economically small even when accounting for temporal traffic heterogeneity. Our results suggest that traffic concerns alone are not a justification for policy makers to alter repair strategy for distributed water infrastructure.

Challenges in Build-Back-Better Housing Reconstruction Programs for Coastal Disaster Management: Case of Tacloban City, Philippines

Following typhoon Haiyan in November 2013, the government of the Philippines organized massive housing reconstruction programs that are currently facing complex implementation issues. The present study investigated the mechanisms of three types of housing reconstruction programs (i.e. owner-driven on-site reconstruction, community-driven off-site relocation and contractor-driven off-site relocation) and discussed sustainability challenges by assessing the gaps between community needs and program performance, measured through the level of beneficiary satisfaction. The study conducted semi-structured questionnaire surveys with beneficiary households and key informant interviews with government officials and nongovernment organization representatives in March 2015. Results showed that on-site reconstruction was delayed due to insufficient and poorly implemented assistance schemes relating to reconstruction (e.g. materials, skills training), while off-site relocation was delayed by prolonged land acquisition and subcontracting issues. Disruption of critical infrastructure, such as water utility services, and lack of livelihood opportunities significantly affected the satisfaction levels of respondents with the recovery progress. The study also found that the no-dwelling-zone policy was not strictly enforced as houses were still being rebuilt in high-risk areas near the coast. Finally permanently relocated residents continue to struggle, especially with regard to their source of livelihood, as relocation sites are inaccessible and located away from employment opportunities.

Criticality of infrastructures for organisations

Critical infrastructure systems provide for the circulation of people, goods, services and information upon which health, safety, comfort and economic activity of a society depend. In this study, we analyse data from 541 organisations affected by the 2010-2011 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake to understand how disruption of critical infrastructure services translates into disruption for businesses and other organisations affected by the loss of infrastructure services. The paper proposes metrics for assessing the relevance and criticality of infrastructures for organisations. In this context, relevance refers to organisations' perceived reliance on infrastructure services and criticality refers to the impact that infrastructure service outage might have on organisations, as a function of the infrastructure relevance for the same organisations and of the duration of infrastructure service outage. The metrics and procedures proposed in this paper provide a much-needed contribution towards enhancing understanding of the private sector's vulnerability to infrastructure disruption. The study findings can be used to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of industry sectors to infrastructure disruption, and can support the estimation of potential impacts induced by infrastructure service outages, at organisation and industry sector level. This can inform and foster public and private sector investments to enhance infrastructure resilience.

Measuring the Storm: Methods of Quantifying Hurricane Exposure with Pregnancy Outcomes

AbstractIncreasing coastal populations and storm intensity may lead to more adverse health effects from tropical storms and hurricanes. Exposure during pregnancy can influence birth outcomes through mechanisms related to healthcare, infrastructure disruption, stress, nutrition, and injury. However, accurate estimation of health effects may be limited by nonspecific exposure definitions that create potential misclassification. The two predominant hurricane exposure assignments are (1) the county of a FEMA presidential disaster declaration; and (2) the specified area within a storm track. The authors propose a third method: meteorological severity of wind speed. Based on the Saffir-Simpson categories, wind speed was examined through binary and quartile comparisons. All three methods of exposure classification were compared by examining the associations with county-level preterm birth and low-birth-weight rates among Florida women who were pregnant during the 2004 hurricane season. The county-level environme...

Resilient Operation of Multiple Energy Carrier Microgrids

This paper proposed a methodology to identify the vulnerable components, and ensure the resilient operation of coordinated electricity and natural gas infrastructures considering multiple disruptions within the microgrid. The microgrid demands, which consist of electricity and heat demands, are served by the interdependent electricity and natural gas supplies. The proposed approach addressed the vulnerability of multiple energy carrier microgrids against various interdictions, which is used to apply preventive reinforcements to increase the resilience of energy supply and decrease the operation cost. The proposed methodology is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem to address the optimal and secure operation of multiple energy carrier microgrids. The interdependence between natural gas and electricity infrastructures is addressed to show the effectiveness of the presented methodology in improving the resilience of generation and demand scheduling against deliberate actions causing disruptions in the interdependent energy infrastructures in multiple energy carrier microgrids.

Economic costs of critical infrastructure failure in bi-national regions and implications for resilience building: Evidence from El Paso–Ciudad Juarez

Transport infrastructure of the ports-of-entry (POEs) and the Bridge of the Americas (BOTA) in the El Paso–Juarez region is important for international trade and economic vitality for both countries. This paper's contribution lies in the use of a bi-national dynamic traffic assignment model that is calibrated for the region to obtain temporal insights into daily travel effects and economic costs of an unintended disruption of the POE approach infrastructure. Travel effects and costs are evaluated for a before-and-after comparative study and changes in both daily static and dynamic travel times are considered. The model considers flow directionality, allowing the framework to isolate international flows from domestic trips for the determination of direct costs. Delays at POEs are treated exogenously since inspections are not part of the model. Simulation results show that the costs for shippers, carriers including delays at POEs could approximate $191 million in the immediate short run (in current dollars). The disruption is considered an isolated event with no impacts to additional infrastructure. Managerial actions are suggested for resilience building and suggestions are made for future research including mitigation and a network approach to resilience in assets consistent with economic dependencies.

Area Business Continuity Management, A New Approach to Sustainable Local Economy

The flooding of the Chao Phraya River in Thailand and the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, both of which occurred in 2011, reminded us of the risks of business disruption and further impacts on national, regional, and global economies through supply chains when disasters occur anywhere in the world. Considering the increasing economic losses attributable to disasters, the fourth session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (2013) aimed to promote resilience and foster new opportunities for public-private partnerships as part of an overall approach to improving risk governance. Furthermore, it highlighted that a growing world requires a new approach to development action, emphasizing the private sector&rquo;s role in managing disaster risks. One of the most significant private sector contributions to disaster risk management is the creation of the business continuity plan/planning (BCP) and business continuity management (BCM) systems, which were standardized as ISO22301 and disseminated in many business enterprises around the world. However, a BCP or BCM system has been neither formulated for nor implemented in most local enterprises in industry agglomerated areas, even though these are located in areas vulnerable to disasters. Moreover, in the case of large-scale disasters, a business enterprise’s capacity may be too limited to mitigate damages and maintain operations through its own efforts, even if BCPs are prepared. The main reason for this is the disruption of public infrastructure and services. In order to minimize the negative economic impacts or economic losses, particularly in the case of a large-scale disaster that disrupts the fundamental infrastructure in certain areas, it is important to conduct risk assessment on a proper scale and to prepare scenario-based disaster management plans for area-wide damage mitigation. In addition, it is essential to have integrated resource management and strategic recovery plans to support each enterprise&rquo;s BCM actions in coordination with public sector activities. Considering this backgrounds, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the ASEAN Coordination Center for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Center) launched the “Natural Disaster Risk Assessment and Area Business Continuity Plan Formulation for Industrial Agglomerated Areas in the ASEAN Region” project in February 2013. The project introduced the new concept of the Area BCP, which, based on a risk assessment of the area, designates a framework and direction for coordinated damage mitigation measures and recovery actions by stakeholders, including individual enterprises, industrial area managers, local authorities, and infrastructure administrators, to allow business continuation of the industrial area as a whole. The project also established Area BCM as a cyclic process of risk assessment, sharing risk and impact information, determining a common strategy of risk management, developing the Area BCP, implementing and monitoring the planned actions to continuously improve the Area BCM system, and coordinating among stakeholders, in order to improve the capability for effective business continuity of the area. This paper aims to evaluate the progress of the project and to explore lessons from the applied process of Area BCM and its benefits.

Why Monorail Systems Provide a Great Solution for Metropolitan Areas

Faced with the escalating demand for public transportation in metropolitan areas, transportation authorities are challenged to select a technology that will satisfy the often conflicting demands of high capacity and reliable service, urban fit, minimized environmental impact and budget restrictions. There are many technologies available today that can provide medium to high capacity mass transit service, however, in many cases these technologies are costly or are not suited to today’s urban environment. High capacity has typically implied costly underground tunneling or obtrusive elevated metro systems that required extensive infrastructure disruption. Although monorail systems have been around for some time, only recent developments such as Bombardier’s INNOVIA Monorail 300 System have permitted transit authorities to now consider monorail as a mainstream contender to meet their mass transit requirements.