Rossby Wave Dispersion Research Articles

Climatic drivers of the Canadian wildfire episode in 2023

Extreme wildfires broke out in Canada from May 2023 and persisted four months. Tremendous fire emissions posed significant impacts on the air quality in both local and downwind regions. Here, the authors explored the meteorological factors driving this wildfire episode and the associated large-scale circulation. Relative to the mean value of 2001–2022, the 2023 Canadian fires released 0.37 Gt more CO2 (527.1%) during May–August. Such enhancement was strongly associated with the anomalous surface warming, especially in May–June, when the daily maximum temperature on average increased by 8.11°C, with regional hotspots up to 10°C in central and eastern Canada. Consistent with the surface warming, positive anomalies of geopotential height were observed at high levels in central and western Canada. The dispersion of Rossby waves led to the long-lasting dominance of high-pressure systems and the consequent warming through anomalous subsidence. The phase-locked wave pattern induced by favorable topography and the strong warming tendency in the pan-Arctic regions are expected to jointly escalate the probability of extreme wildfires over central and western Canada in the future.摘要2023年5月加拿大发生极端野火事件并持续4个月时间. 野火污染物排放对当地和下风向的空气质量造成了严重影响. 本文对驱动此次野火事件的气象因子和相关大尺度环流进行了探究. 研究表明, 此次极端野火排放的二氧化碳相较往年同期增长了0.37Gt (527.1%) . 受罗斯贝波频散影响, 同期加拿大中西部区域出现持续的位势高度正异常, 促进气流下沉并引发局地高温, 中西部区域5–6月最高温平均上升8.11°C, 部分区域甚至超过10°C, 导致野火排放的显著增长. 受有利地形和泛北极地区快速增暖的影响, 预期未来加拿大中西部发生极端野火的概率可能会显著上升.

The energy dispersion of magnetic Rossby waves in zonally nonuniform basic states

The energy dispersion of magnetic Rossby waves was investigated by applying two-dimensional incompressible magnetohydrodynamic equations in both zonally varying basic flow and basic magnetic field. A derived cubic dispersion relation suggests that there are at most three types of magnetic Rossby wave. Two of them represent waves that gradually tend to Alfvén waves during the energy dispersion process. The energy dispersion trajectories (wave rays) finally move with the zonal group velocity that tends to be equal to the zonal phase speed after being reflected by at least one turning location at which the meridional group velocity equal to zero. Along the marching rays, both the wave action density and wave energy tend to be constant values while the wave amplitude will decrease with increasing total wavenumber. The third one represents a wave that gradually have the constant meridional wavenumber, wave action density, wave energy, and wave amplitude. However, the difference in the zonal group velocity and the zonal phase speed suggests that the wave is still dispersive. This type of wave will disappear if specifying uniform basic magnetic field. The cubic dispersion relation is then reduced to a quadratic one. Correspondingly, the remaining two dispersion relations feature a fast- and a slow-propagating magnetic Rossby wave, respectively. They finally tend to be Alfvén waves with no energy dispersion when the energy dispersion process completes.

Persistent Meteorological Drought in the Yangtze River Basin during Summer–Autumn 2022: Relay Effects of Different Atmospheric Internal Variabilities

During the summer–autumn (July–October, Jul–Oct) period of 2022, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) of China experienced an extreme meteorological drought, with Jul–Oct containing the lowest precipitation in the YRB since 1979. The possible causes of this drought were analyzed in the present study. Surprisingly, unlike many previous drought events, we found that this event was not characterized by a consistent atmospheric circulation anomaly regime throughout the entire drought period. Instead, two distinct circulation patterns were responsible for the precipitation deficit in two different stages, i.e., July–August (Jul–Aug) and September–October (Sep–Oct). In Jul–Aug, the YRB precipitation deficit primarily resulted from an intensified and northward-shifted East Asian subtropical jet, which allowed for an extremely northwestward shift of western Pacific subtropical highs, leading to an anomalous descending motion. Such circulation patterns in Jul–Aug originated from the dispersion of Rossby waves upstream from central Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, in Sep–Oct, the YRB drought was primarily attributed to a low-level cyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific, which was closely associated with frequent tropical cyclones traveling across this region. Observational analysis and a model ensemble hindcast suggest that atmospheric internal variabilities dominated the drought process, while the SSTA, particularly the La Niña event, played a limited role. Therefore, this long-lasting extreme YRB meteorological drought was largely driven by the relay effects of different atmospheric internal variabilities in Jul–Aug and Sep–Oct, respectively, which shows limited model predictability and poses a great challenge for operational climate predictions.

Observable Large-Scale Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Subtropical Gyre

Abstract The large-scale ocean circulation in an ocean basin was previously thought to be impacted cumulatively by all the overlying tropical cyclones (TCs). Based on idealized numerical experiments and altimetry observation, this study reveals that, unnecessarily by cumulative impacts, a single TC actually has the ability to plow the large-scale sea surface height (SSH) field due to the TC-induced geostrophic response. This ability is dictated by the along-track length scale of the geostrophic response, i.e., the total track length. Some of the observed along-track signals, including the SSH trough, jet, and SSH rise, can confirm the TC-induced large-scale impacts. Shortly after the TC passage, the observable large-scale signals are generally the SSH trough. However, the jet and the SSH rise easily emerge from the evolved SSH trough due to Rossby wave dispersion. By identifying and tracking the observable signals, this study demonstrates that the subtropical gyre primarily over 4°–20°N, 122°E–180° is plowed by nine typhoons (2015) into several large blocks of SSH troughs and SSH rises. These long-lived SSH troughs and SSH rises dominate the upper-layer circulation from April to December in 2015. If the large-scale signals cannot be observed, the estimated TC-induced mean SSH decreases suggest that the large-scale impacts may still exist but merely cannot be seen intuitively. This study provides compelling observational evidence for the TC-induced large-scale impacts, further highlighting that TCs may play a nonnegligible role in the upper-ocean dynamics in the subtropical gyre. Significance Statement This study aims to demonstrate the ability of a typhoon to affect the large-scale ocean dynamics. The ability manifests as some along-track signals in altimetry observations, including sea surface height trough, jet, and sea surface height rise, which can be frequently observed after some typhoons in 2015. The sea surface height field in the western North Pacific is continuously plowed by these typhoons into several large blocks of sea surface height troughs and rises. These long-lived sea surface height troughs and rises dominate the upper-layer circulation from April to December in 2015. This study indicates that typhoons play a vital role in the upper-ocean dynamics in the western North Pacific.

Preconditioning and Intensification of Upstream Extratropical Cyclones through Surface Fluxes

Abstract The influence of the surface latent and surface sensible heat flux on the development and interaction of an idealized extratropical cyclone (termed “primary”) with an upstream cyclone (termed “upstream”) using the Navy’s Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) is analyzed. The primary cyclone develops from an initial perturbation to a baroclinically unstable jet stream, while the upstream cyclone results from Rossby wave dispersion at the surface where a bottom-up style development occurs. The intensity of the upstream cyclone is strongly enhanced by surface latent heat fluxes and, to a lesser degree, by surface sensible heat fluxes. Forward trajectories initiated from the postfrontal sector of the primary cyclone travel south of the upstream anticyclone and feed into the atmospheric river and warm conveyor belt region of the upstream cyclone. Substantial moistening of this airstream is a result of upward surface latent heat flux present in both the primary cyclone’s postfrontal sector and along the southern flank of the anticyclone. Backward trajectories initiated from the same region show that these air parcels originate from a broad area north of both the anticyclone and the primary cyclone in the lower troposphere. The airstream identified represents a new pathway through which dry, descending air that is preconditioned through surface moistening enhances the development of an upstream cyclone through diabatically generated potential vorticity.

The role of Antarctic sea ice in modulating the relationship between September–October Antarctic Oscillation and following January–February wet and cold weather in southern China

AbstractA previous study found that the September–October (SO) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) shows an out‐of‐phase variation of late January–February (JF) wet and cold weather (wet–cold) in southern China. This study explored the underlying mechanism and found that Antarctic sea ice may be responsible partially for such a relationship. The SO AAO stimulates the Antarctic sea‐ice dipole pattern (ADP) anomalies, which induce the anomalous convective precipitation of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in Latin America‐Atlantic (LAA) and Western Pacific (WP) in following JF. The anomalous convections over the ITCZ regions trigger planetary wave dispersions from the tropical LAA and WP to adjust the East Asian atmospheric circulation. Through the bridge of anomalous ITCZ, an increased JF ADP decreases the invasion of both northerly cold air flow and southwesterly moist airflow into southern China, resulting in the dissipation of wet–cold and vice versa. Furthermore, the variation of JF ADP is well correlated with the in‐phased polar vortex, connecting to the stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The variation of JF QBO induces the anomalous convection over the tropical North Atlantic and ITCZ in LAA and WP, in turn modulating the contemporary invasion of cold and wet airflow into southern China by Rossby wave dispersion, subsequently wet–cold in southern China. To summarize, JF ADP affects the simultaneous wet–cold in southern China through the anomalous ITCZ. The turning phase of QBO modulates such correlation by inducing the anomalous ITCZ correlated with ADP and the anomalous convection due to QBO itself over tropical North Atlantic.

A Multi‐Layer Linear Rossby Wave Dispersion Relation for Vertical Tilt of Mesoscale Eddies

AbstractVertical tilt of mesoscale eddies has been frequently observed in world oceans. The observations of composite eddies, individual eddies from an oceanic reanalysis product, and idealized numerical experiments of mesoscale eddies all show that the eddy vertical tilt is gradually increased with time in eddy mature stage, implying that the eddy translation speed changes with depth. However, eddy vertical tilt cannot be explained by the classic linear Rossby wave dispersion relation, since the classic zonal translation speed () of linear Rossby waves is depth‐independent from the quasi‐geostrophic potential vorticity (QGPV) equation. To deduce a depth‐dependent linear Rossby wave dispersion relation, we solved the QGPV equation by assuming that the stratified water column in oceans can be separated into a number of fine layers with constant stratification in each layer, whereas the stratification changes among layers. A multi‐layer linear Rossby wave (MLRW) dispersion relation in stratified oceans is then deduced. The MLRW dispersion relation shows that changes with depth. In each layer, is proportional to stratification and layer thickness but inversely proportional to Earth's rotation. The estimated structure from the MLRW dispersion relation is consistent with the structure of eddies in numerical experiments and the observed composite eddies. Noticeably, there are some discrepancies between the theoretical estimates and those from observations and numerical simulations, primarily due to the sensitivity of the theoretical estimates to layer thickness. The study attempts to provide an approach to describe and predict mesoscale eddy vertical tilt.

A Climatological Study of Successive Tropical Cyclone Events in North Atlantic

This study presents the climatological characteristics and key environmental features that are conducive to the development of successive tropical cyclone events (STCs) over the North Atlantic Ocean. Composite analyses were conducted to analyze the temporal, spatial, and mean characteristics of the environmental conditions associated with historical STC events during the study period of 1950–2020. The results show that the tropical cyclone (TC)-induced Rossby waves could explain a majority of Atlantic STCs when newly formed TCs develop to the east of the pre-existing TC during the study period. The remaining STCs which could not be explained by the Rossby wave dispersion theory were likely the result of favorable environmental conditions conducive to the occurrence of the successive development of TCs. The composite analysis of the environmental conditions at various time scales reveals that the low-frequency variability of the environmental conditions likely plays a significant role in modulating the STCs over the North Atlantic Ocean.

Southeast China Extreme Drought Event in August 2019: Context of Coupling of Midlatitude and Tropical Systems

Abstract An extreme drought occurred over Southeast China (SEC) in August 2019. We demonstrate synergistic effects of midlatitude and tropical circulation on this extreme event and highlight the impacts of the coupling and locking of two cyclones at different latitudes, which are otherwise ignored. We propose the relaying roles of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and western North Pacific in connection with the tropical convection and SEC precipitation. The equivalent-barotropic anticyclone over the TP and lower-tropospheric cyclone over the western North Pacific both resulted from the positive Indian Ocean dipole and El Niño Modoki. The equivalent-barotropic cyclone over Northeast China originated from the dispersion of Rossby waves upstream along the subtropical waveguide associated with the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature anomaly pattern and the Rossby wave response to the TP precipitation deficiency. Further, they jointly contributed to this drought by inducing strong northerly wind anomalies in the entire troposphere over East China. These anomalous northerly winds led to decreased warm moisture from the south and substantial sinking motions, which inhibited the occurrence of the SEC local convection and precipitation. The SEC precipitation is closely related to convection over the Maritime Continent from a climate perspective. This relationship is verified by observations, linear baroclinic model experiments, and general circulation model sensitivity experiments with and without the TP, in which precipitation anomalies over the southern TP and Philippine Sea play important bridge roles. The results will advance the prediction of the SEC extreme drought events.

On the Energy Dispersion of Magnetic Rossby Waves

The energy dispersion of magnetic Rossby waves has been investigated by applying the two-dimensional incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations in both uniform basic flow and basic magnetic field. The dispersion relation suggests that the magnetic Rossby waves can be divided into fast- and slow-propagating modes, respectively. The fast-propagating mode propagates eastward and is similar to the fast Alfvén waves. The energy dispersion speed is faster than the phase speed, which means the perturbation energy can lead the perturbations themselves to arrive downstream. The slow-propagating waves with smaller (larger) horizontal scales are similar to those of the slow Alfvén waves (Rossby waves). The zonal group velocity is slower than the zonal phase speed for the slow-propagating magnetic Rossby waves. For the slow-propagating waves that propagate eastward, this means that the perturbation energy may trigger new perturbations that are located upstream of the perturbations themselves. The group velocity vector is basically same as (opposite of) the wavevector for the fast-propagating (slow-propagating) magnetic Rossby waves that propagate eastward. The endpoints of the group velocity vectors and the wavevector multiplying a factor are located on a cycle in the wavenumber space. Due to the uniform basic flow and the uniform basic magnetic field, the energy dispersion paths (called rays) are straight lines. Along the straight-line rays, the wave action, wave energy, and amplitude keep their initial values, and the wave neither develops nor decays.

Occurrence of heatwave in Korea by the displacement of South Asian high

The South Asian high (SAH) index was defined using the 200 hPa geopotential height for 1973–2019. Of the movements of the SAH center in the north–south, east–west, northwest-southeast, and southwest-northeast directions, the movements in the northwest-southeast direction showed the highest positive correlation with heatwave days (HWDs) in South Korea. Thirteen years with the highest values in the northwestward shift of the SAH (positive SAH years) and 13 years with the highest values in the southeastward shift of the SAH (negative SAH years) were selected from a time series of SAH indices from which the linear trend was removed, and the differences between these two groups were analyzed. An analysis of vertical meridional circulation averaged along 120°–130° E showed that in the latitude zones containing Korea, anomalous downward flows with anomalous high pressures formed in the entire troposphere and coincided with a positive anomaly of air temperature and specific humidity. An analysis of stream flows and geopotential heights showed that in the positive SAH years, anomalous anticyclones developed in Korea, the North Pacific, North America, Western Europe, and the Iranian Plateau. These anticyclones had the wavenumber-5 pattern and showed more distinct barotropic vertical structures at higher altitudes, which resembled the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. The maintenance of CGT depends on the interaction between the CGT circulation and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which has a major influence on the mid-latitude atmosphere. Strengthening of the ISM results in the formation of upper-level anomalous anticyclones in the northwestern Iranian Plateau and produces continuous downstream cells along the waveguide due to the Rossby wave dispersion. When diabatic heating by Indian summer monsoon precipitation is strengthened, the SAH is strengthened to the northwest of India, and a positive CGT pattern is formed. As a result, anomalous anticyclones formed in all layers of the Korean troposphere, resulting in heatwaves, tropical nights, and droughts exacerbated in South Korea.

A framework to evaluate IMEX schemes for atmospheric models

Abstract. We present a new evaluation framework for implicit and explicit (IMEX) Runge–Kutta time-stepping schemes. The new framework uses a linearized nonhydrostatic system of normal modes. We utilize the framework to investigate the stability of IMEX methods and their dispersion and dissipation of gravity, Rossby, and acoustic waves. We test the new framework on a variety of IMEX schemes and use it to develop and analyze a set of second-order low-storage IMEX Runge–Kutta methods with a high Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy (CFL) number. We show that the new framework is more selective than the 2-D acoustic system previously used in the literature. Schemes that are stable for the 2-D acoustic system are not stable for the system of normal modes.

Kakim obrazom okeanicheskiye vikhri mogut byt' stol' dolgozhivushchimi

Purpose. The article is aimed at substantiating theoretically amazing longevity (up to 5 years) of the individual vortices in the World Ocean against the background of strong fluctuations of the ocean currents and regardless of the Rossby wave dispersion features. Methods and Results. Evolution of the baroclinic vortices is considered in a hybrid two-layer ocean model over a topographic slope on the beta-plane. In the upper layer with strong potential vorticity anomalies, the currents are assumed to be balanced; in the lower layer at week potential vorticity anomalies, the currents are described in the traditional quasi-geostrophic approximation. Slow evolving almost circular vortices embedded in a vertically sheared current typical of the subtropical part of the ocean are described analytically. The theory shows how a baroclinic vortex is followed by the lee Rossby waves. The vortex drift across the mean current is conditioned mainly by the baroclinic-dipole structure of the represented solution; at that the vortex energy loss related to the Rossby wave radiation can be compensated by the energy stored in the mean currents. Conclusions. The constructed model provides reasonable estimates of the energy drift and transfer typical of the ocean vortices with strong anomalies of potential vorticity. Direct support of long-lived vortices by the energy of the baroclinic mean flows irrespective of their stability, is of great importance for better understanding the physical mechanisms relating to significant longetivity of the geophysical vortices and the features of their movement.

Dynamics Behind a Record-Breaking Trough over Mexico and Internal Atmospheric Variability during El Niño

AbstractA major winter storm took place over Mexico during 7 to 11 March 2016, impacting 28 states and leaving four million families without power. Extensive agricultural damage and livestock deaths were also reported with widespread snow across central and northern Mexico. North of the border, this system resulted in record-breaking flooding and severe weather in Texas and Louisiana. The event was due to a trough that deepened and cut off over central Mexico with 500-hPa heights that were nine standard deviations below normal, well beyond previous records! Motivated by the societal impacts of this event, this study investigates factors that contributed to the extreme trough and influenced its predictability in forecast models. A strong El Niño provided the antecedent conditions, with enhanced tropical convection over the central Pacific, a strengthened subtropical anticyclone, and poleward Rossby wave dispersion. However, unlike past strong El Niños, the North Pacific preceding this event was characterized by significant synoptic-scale Rossby wave activity on the midlatitude jet stream including multiple wave packets tracking around the globe during February and March. The interaction of one of these packets with the subtropical anticyclone aloft resulted in a large anticyclonic wave break over the east Pacific, leading to the amplification of the downstream trough over Mexico. The ability of numerical weather prediction to capture this extreme trough is directly related to the predictability of the Rossby wave packet. These results are also discussed within the context of the relationship between El Niño, Rossby wave activity, and extreme events in western North America.

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Track to the Vertical Structure of a Nearby Monsoon Gyre

Abstract The impact of different vertical structures of a nearby monsoon gyre (MG) on a tropical cyclone (TC) track is investigated using idealized numerical simulations. In the experiment with a relatively deeper MG, the TC experiences a sharp northward turn at a critical point when its zonal westward-moving speed slows down to zero. At the same time, the total vorticity tendency for the TC wavenumber-1 component nearly vanishes as the vorticity advection by the MG cancels the vorticity advection by the TC. At this point, the TC motion is dominated by the beta effect, as in a no-mean-flow environment, and takes a sharp northward turn. In contrast, the TC does not exhibit a sharp northward turn with a shallower MG nearby. In the case with a deeper MG, a greater relative vorticity gradient of the MG promotes a quicker attraction between the TC and MG through the vorticity segregation process. In addition, a larger outer size of the TC also favors a faster westward propagation from its initial position, thus having more potential to collocate with the MG. Once the coalescence is in place, the Rossby wave energy dispersion associated with the TC and MG together is enhanced and rapidly strengthens the southwesterly flow on the eastern flank of both systems. The steering flow from both the beta gyre and the Rossby wave dispersion leads the TC to take a sharp northward track when the total vorticity tendency is at its minimum. This study indicates the importance of good representations of the TC structure and its nearby environmental flows in order to accurately predict TC motions.

Transport by Lagrangian Vortices in the Eastern Pacific

AbstractRotationally coherent Lagrangian vortices (RCLVs) are identified from satellite-derived surface geostrophic velocities in the eastern Pacific (180°–130°W) using the objective (frame invariant) finite-time Lagrangian coherent structure detection method of Haller et al. based on the Lagrangian-averaged vorticity deviation. RCLVs are identified for 30-, 90-, and 270-day intervals over the entire satellite dataset, beginning in 1993. In contrast to structures identified using Eulerian eddy-tracking methods, the RCLVs maintain material coherence over the specified time intervals, making them suitable for material transport estimates. Statistics of RCLVs are compared to statistics of eddies identified from sea surface height (SSH) by Chelton et al. RCLVs and SSH eddies are found to propagate westward at similar speeds at each latitude, consistent with the Rossby wave dispersion relation. However, RCLVs are uniformly smaller and shorter-lived than SSH eddies. A coherent eddy diffusivity is derived to quantify the contribution of RCLVs to meridional transport; it is found that RCLVs contribute less than 1% to net meridional dispersion and diffusion in this sector, implying that eddy transport of tracers is mostly due to incoherent motions, such as swirling and filamentation outside of the eddy cores, rather than coherent meridional translation of eddies themselves. These findings call into question prior estimates of coherent eddy transport based on Eulerian eddy identification methods.

Are Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events Similar among Basins?

AbstractThe present study intercompares multiple tropical cyclone event (MTCE) characteristics among each global tropical cyclone (TC) basin using best-track data. Specific focus is placed on examining the number of MTCEs and TCs during MTCEs, the zonal distance between TCs during MTCEs, and the spatiotemporal separation between genesis events during MTCEs. The results suggest that the ratio of MTCEs relative to single TCs is substantially higher in the eastern North Pacific (ENP), western North Pacific (WNP), and south Indian Ocean (SI) basins compared to the North Atlantic (NA) and South Pacific (SP). The prolific nature of ENP, WNP, and SI MTCE activity results in approximately half of TCs occurring during MTCEs. During new TC genesis, the majority of preexisting TCs are generally located westward at a consistent zonal distance from new TC genesis for MTCEs within each basin with median values between −1620 and −1961 km. TC-induced Rossby wave dispersion may set this zonal length scale as implied by its moderate-to-strong correlations (R = 0.38–0.85; p < 0.05) with the shallow-water zonal wavelength of TC-induced stationary Rossby waves. A substantial majority of TC genesis events occur progressively eastward during ENP, WNP, and SP MTCEs, whereas NA and SI MTCEs exhibit no such tendency. Last, the temporal separation between the genesis of preexisting and new TCs is generally similar among basins with median values between 3 and 4 days. Together, these results are indicative of unusual similarity in MTCE characteristics among basins despite differences in environmental and TC characteristics in each basin.

Multiscale Upstream and In Situ Precursors to the Elevated Mixed Layer and High-Impact Weather over the Midwest United States

Abstract Two severe MCSs over the upper Midwest United States resulted in >100 mm of rain in a ~24-h period and >200 severe weather reports, respectively, during 30 June–2 July 2011. This period also featured 100 (104) daily maximum high (low) temperature records across the same region. These high-impact weather events occurred in the presence of an elevated mixed layer (EML) that influenced the development of the severe MCSs and the numerous record high temperatures. The antecedent large-scale flow evolution was influenced by early season Tropical Cyclone Meari over the western North Pacific. The recurvature and subsequent interaction of Meari with the extratropical large-scale flow occurred in conjunction with Rossby wave train amplification over the North Pacific and dispersion across North America during 22 June–2 July 2011. The Rossby wave train dispersion contributed to trough (ridge) development over western (central) North America and the development of an EML and the two MCSs over the upper Midwest United States. A composite analysis of 99 warm-season days with an EML at Minneapolis, Minnesota, suggests that Rossby wave train amplification and dispersion across the North Pacific may frequently occur in the 7 days leading up to EMLs across the upper Midwest. The composite analysis also demonstrates an increased frequency of severe weather and elevated temperatures relative to climatology on days with an EML. These results suggest that EMLs over the upper Midwest may often be preceded by Rossby wave train amplification over the North Pacific and be followed by a period of severe weather and elevated temperatures.

Tropical Atmospheric Forcing of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract The relationship between the interannual wintertime variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and tropical heating anomalies is examined using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and observation-based sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation data for the period from 1980 to 2011. The NAO is found to be significantly correlated with the precipitation anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical American–Atlantic region, but not with the underlying SST anomalies. The tropical heating impact on the NAO is examined and the evolution process of the influence is explored by numerical experiments using a primitive equation atmospheric model forced by atmospheric heating perturbations. Results from the reanalysis data and numerical experiments suggest that the atmospheric heating in the tropical Indian Ocean appears to be a driving force for the NAO variability. The atmospheric response to the tropical heating involves the combined effects of Rossby wave dispersion, normal mode instability, and transient eddy feedback. The remote forcing influence on the NAO tends to be organized and achieved by the circumglobal teleconnection pattern. By contrast, the influence of the tropical American–Atlantic heating on the NAO is weak. The linkage between the NAO and the tropical American–Atlantic heating is likely through the anomalously meridional atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic Ocean.

Rossby Waves Mediate Impacts of Tropical Oceans on West Antarctic Atmospheric Circulation in Austral Winter

Abstract Recent studies link climate change around Antarctica to the sea surface temperature of tropical oceans, with teleconnections from the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans making different contributions to Antarctic climate. In this study, the impacts of each ocean basin on the wintertime Southern Hemisphere circulation are identified by comparing simulation results using a comprehensive atmospheric model, an idealized dynamical core model, and a theoretical Rossby wave model. The results herein show that tropical Atlantic Ocean warming, Indian Ocean warming, and eastern Pacific cooling are all able to deepen the Amundsen Sea low located adjacent to West Antarctica, while western Pacific warming increases the pressure to the west of the international date line, encompassing the Ross Sea and regions south of the Tasman Sea. In austral winter, these tropical ocean basins work together linearly to modulate the atmospheric circulation around West Antarctica. Further analyses indicate that these teleconnections critically depend on stationary Rossby wave dynamics and are thus sensitive to the background flow, particularly the subtropical/midlatitude jet. Near these jets, wind shear is amplified, which strengthens the generation of Rossby waves. On the other hand, near the edges of the jets the meridional gradient of the absolute vorticity is also enhanced. As a consequence of the Rossby wave dispersion relationship, the jet edge may reflect stationary Rossby wave trains, serving as a waveguide. The simulation results not only identify the relative roles of each of the tropical ocean basins in the tropical–Antarctica teleconnection, but also suggest that a deeper understanding of teleconnections requires a better estimation of the atmospheric jet structures.