Return Dispersion Research Articles

Do investors herd in Indian market

This paper examines the presence of herd behavior in Indian stock market in extreme market conditions using data from the National Stock Exchange. The study used the measures suggested by Christie and Huang (Financial Anal J 51:31–37, 1995) and Chang et al. (J Bank Finance 24:1651–1679, 2000) based on cross-sectional standard deviation and cross-sectional absolute deviation, respectively. Empirical results based on daily, weekly, and monthly data indicate that during periods of extreme price movements, equity return dispersions tend to increase rather than decrease, hence providing evidence against the presence of herding in the Indian stock market for the years 2000–2013. Even no evidence of herding is found during the extremely high and extremely low trading volume days. Owing to the regulatory reforms of the Indian equity market and the intense presence of the foreign institutional investors, investors’ behavior seems more rational, that validates the application of rational pricing models in the Indian stock markets.

When Opportunity Knocks: Cross-Sectional Return Dispersion and Active Fund Performance

Active opportunity in the market, measured by cross-sectional dispersion in stock returns, significantly influences fund performance. Active strategies have the greatest impact on returns during periods of high dispersion, when alpha produced by the most active funds significantly exceeds that produced in other months. The outperformance of the most relative to the least active funds is also concentrated in months of high dispersion. Deciding when to invest in active funds, therefore, can be as important to generating outperformance as deciding which funds to invest in. Switching between highly active and passive funds based on dispersion produces significant alpha of over 2.7% p.a. after fees. This paper adds a new dimension to understanding how active funds can be used to generate value, by combining identification of which managers have the greatest potential to outperform the market with insight into when the market is most conducive to outperformance.

Time-Varying Momentum Payoffs and Illiquidity

A basic intuition is that arbitrage is easier when markets are most liquid. Surprisingly, we find that momentum profits are markedly larger in liquid market states. This finding is not explained by variation in liquidity risk, time-varying exposure to risk factors, or changes in macroeconomic condition, cross-sectional return dispersion, and investor sentiment. The predictive performance of aggregate market illiquidity for momentum profits uniformly exceed that of market return and market volatility states. While momentum strategies are unconditionally unprofitable in US, Japan, and Eurozone countries in the last decade, they are substantial following liquid market states.

Industry herding and market states: evidence from Chinese stock markets

This paper uses firm-level data to examine whether investors follow each other into and out of the same industries in China’s A-share markets. Our study is a significant addition to the literature that investigates herding behaviour in an industry context with asymmetric herding effects with respect to different market states, different stock exchanges, and the role of the information technology sector. Using recent daily data from 17 May 2001 through 16 May 2011, we demonstrate strong evidence of industry herding in the A-share markets. Evidence further supports that stock return dispersions from the information technology sector play a significant role in explaining the other sectors’ herding activity. After examining bull and bear markets, herding is more profound in some sectors during a bull market. Finally, industry herding is more prevalent in the Shenzhen stock exchange, while for some sectors in the Shanghai stock exchange herding is more prevalent during a bull market state.

Patterns of covariance between airborne laser scanning metrics and Lorenz curve descriptors of tree size inequality

The Lorenz curve, as a descriptor of tree size inequality within a stand, has been suggested as a reliable means for characterizing forest structure and distinguishing even from uneven-sized areas. The aim of this study was to achieve a thorough understanding on the relations between airborne laser scanning (ALS) metrics and indicators based on Lorenz curve ordering: Gini coefficient (GC) and Lorenz asymmetry (S). Exploratory multivariate analysis was carried out using correlation tests, partial least squares (PLS), and an information-theoretic approach for multimodel inference (MMI). Best subset linear model was selected for GC and S prediction, as variable transformations yielded no improvement in the relation of ALS with the given response. Relative variable importance based on the MMI model showed that GC is best predicted by ALS metrics expressing canopy coverage, return dispersion, and low–high percentile combinations. Although ALS metrics showed no correlation with S, they did so against its constituting components: the proportions of basal area () and stem density () stocked above the mean quadratic diameter. The study of PLS loading vectors illustrated how ALS metrics explain variance in opposing directions for each of these components, so that their effects cancel each other out in the overall S. Cross-validation showed that only marginal differences are nevertheless found between predicting S directly or as the sum and estimations. The differing relation of diverse ALS metrics was therefore observed for and . The conclusions obtained by this research may assist in selecting relevant Lorenz curve descriptors for forest structure characterization, as well as in variable reduction strategies for their wall-to-wall prediction by means of ALS metrics.

The conditional relation between dispersion and return

The main goal of this paper is to examine the conditional pricing effect of return dispersion on the cross section of returns. We observe a systematic conditional relation between dispersion and return even after controlling for market, size and book-to-market factors. However, we find that return dispersion risk is asymmetrically priced with a significantly positive premium observed during periods of large market gains only. The findings are found to be robust to alternative conditional specifications of market returns, suggesting asymmetric pricing effect of the return dispersion factor. We provide alternative explanations for the systematic risk captured by the return dispersion factor and discuss implications for portfolio management and corporate decisions.

REIT and Commercial Real Estate Returns: A Post Mortem of the Financial Crisis

In the years surrounding the financial crisis, the share prices of equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) were much more volatile than the underlying commercial real estate prices. To better understand this phenomenon we examine the cross-sectional dispersion of REIT returns during this time period with a particular focus on the influence of their capital structures. By looking at both the debt ratio and the maturity structure of the debt we separate the pure leverage effect from the effect of financial distress. Consistent with leverage and financial distress costs amplifying the price decline, we find that the share prices of REITs with higher debt to asset ratios and shorter maturity debt fell more during the 2007 to early 2009 crisis period. Although REIT prices rebounded with the bounce back in commercial real estate prices, financial distress costs had a permanent effect on REIT values. In particular, we find that REITs with more debt due during the crisis period tended to sell more property and issue more equity in 2009, when prices were depressed.

Return Dispersion, Size, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns - Evidence from the German Stock Market

This paper investigates whether return dispersion (RD), proxied by the cross-sectional standard deviation of stock returns, captures variation in returns across German stocks between 1989 and 2010. I address existing evidence based on U.S. equity data that RD may serve as a proxy economic state variable. In the out-of-sample test I confirm the countercyclical character of RD and show that it loads significantly negatively on future equal-weighted average market return. Sorting stocks by their absolute loadings on RD, I uncover the negative pattern in simple average portfolio returns. Further analysis indicates that the negative relationship between absolute loadings on RD and future returns is present only in micro stock subgroup. This finding casts doubt on the RD as proxy for state variable. Instead, it suggests its relation to mispricing and idiosyncratic risk components. As a secondary results I confirm the existence of reversed size effect in German stock market over the considered period.

Can advanced markets help diversify risks in frontier stock markets? Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets

This study examines global diversification benefits from the perspective of local investors in the frontier markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council using two diversification measures: the correlation index and return dispersion. The findings suggest a strong link between market volatility and both diversification measures in all markets, with the exception of Bahrain, indicating that investors in these frontier markets will face significant challenges achieving desired levels of diversification using domestic stocks only. However, I also find that significant amount of market risk in these countries can be eliminated by supplementing domestic portfolios with positions in advanced markets. Finally, I show that risk minimization strategies using foreign traded assets also lead to favorable risk adjusted returns for investors in these markets, stressing the potential benefits of financial liberalization in developing markets.

A re-examination of firm's attributes and share returns: Evidence from the Chinese A-shares market

It is widely accepted that some firms' attributes or characteristics, such as a firm's size or book-to-market ratio, attract premiums in terms of average returns, which is a pervasive phenomenon not restricted to just a few individual markets. However, the way to derive these premiums by sorting firms based on their characteristics that are known to be associated with share returns, is not without controversy. This study takes a totally different approach by adopting a novel Self-Organizing Maps approach to cluster share returns first and identify the attributable factors afterwards. It finds eminent presence of the value effect in the Chinese A-shares market. It also finds that two other firm attributes, ROA and cash-flow-to-price, also have explanatory power over share returns. Liquidity and the ratio of tradable to total shares, which are often used to proxy corporate governance, show little evidence of explaining share return dispersion. Surprisingly, a “reversed” size effect is reported in this study.

Applying an alternative test of herding behavior: A case study of the Indian stock market

The paper presents an alternative approach to test herding behavior in the Indian equity market. In contrast to the conventional test methodologies, based on return dispersions among a group of securities, this paper uses symmetric properties of the cross-sectional return distribution to identify herding. Using this alternative approach, we find evidence of herding in the Indian equity market during the sample period which tends to be more pronounced during the 2007 crash. The paper also finds that the rate of increase in security return dispersion is relatively lower in the up market compared to down market days. This finding is contrary to the directional asymmetry documented by McQueen et al. (1996).

Market Cycles and the Performance of Relative Strength Strategies

We study the effect of market cycles on both medium‐run and long‐run relative strength trading strategies. We find that payoffs for both strategies tend to be relatively higher within a market state (rising or falling markets), but substantially lower over transitions between states. Since shorter duration strategies are relatively less likely to include market transitions, our results help reconcile the puzzling fact that medium‐run strategies are profitable, but long‐run strategies are not. We find that the market's cross‐sectional return dispersion: 1) tends to be higher around market transitions, and 2) is negatively related to the subsequent payoffs for both medium‐run and long‐run strategies.

Return Dispersion, Stock Market Liquidity and Aggregate Economic Activity

This paper examines the effect of return dispersion on the dynamics of stock market liquidity, risk and return. Moreover, the importance of return dispersion in forecasting aggregate economic activity is rediscovered in the context of a regime switching model that accounts for stock market fluctuations and their association with the state of the economy. We find that there is a bidirectional, Granger-causal association between illiquidity and return dispersion in the U.S. stock market. The empirical results show that stock returns can help us predict both realized volatility as well as return dispersion. We report that there is a significant relation between economic conditions and the risk measures (return dispersion and realized volatility).

Management Insights

Management Insights

Can Advanced Markets Help Diversify Risks in Frontier Stock Markets? Evidence from Gulf Arab Stock Markets

This study examines portfolio diversification benefits in the frontier Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets, using two diversification measures: the correlation index and return dispersion. The findings suggest a strong link between market volatility and the cross-sectional distribution of returns in all markets, with the exception of Bahrain, indicating that investors in these frontier markets will face significant challenges achieving desired levels of diversification using domestic stocks only. However, I also find that significant amount of market risk in these countries can be eliminated by supplementing domestic portfolios with positions in advanced markets. In all GCC markets except Dubai and Abu Dhabi, S&P 500 index futures provide the best risk reduction potential whereas crude oil futures are found to be the most effective instrument in the case of Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Market Regimes and Herding Behavior in Chinese A and B Shares

This paper proposes a Markov-Switching (MS) test of herding behavior in China’s segmented stock markets under a regime-changing environment. Using firm-level data on the A-shares (denominated in Chinese Renminbi) and B-shares (denominated in U.S. and Hong Kong dollars), we estimate an MS model of stock return dispersions to discern whether herding behavior exists under different market regimes. The findings suggest the presence of three market regimes (low, high and extreme or crash volatility) in all Chinese market segments with the common volatility transmission order of Low, High and Crash regimes, and that herding behavior is asymmetric, observed during the high and crash volatility periods only. We also find significant cross market herding effects from the A- to the B-share markets, suggesting that foreign institutional investors in the B-share markets pair with domestic investors during periods of market stress. Finally, we find that the A-share markets in China herd around the Hong Kong market during the high and crash volatility regimes, whereas no significant U.S. market effect is observed.

International herding: Does it differ across sectors?

This paper investigates the existence of herding in the global equity market. We apply a methodology which utilises cross-country dispersion in index returns. An analysis of national indices world-wide unveils virtually no instances of global information cascades, as price patterns largely adhere to the predictions of the rational pricing models. However, some sector-specific indices reveal price patterns indicative of traders’ irrationality, especially in basic materials, consumer services, and oil and gas. This can be driven by a group of investors following each other in and out of markets, overconfidence, or excessive flight to quality. These irrational patterns decline over time.

Value Premium Across Countries

The value premium varies substantially across countries. Kim explores whether the inter-country cross-sectional variation in the value premium can be predicted by the variables known to predict the intra-country time-variation in the value premium. After examining data from 23 developed markets and 13 emerging markets between 2000 and 2010, he found that the earnings-yield spread and the return dispersion have predictive power in emerging markets but not in developed markets. The earnings-growth spread was found to have no significant predictive power. <b>TOPICS:</b>Exchanges/markets/clearinghouses, big data/machine learning, statistical methods

Value Premium Across Countries

Value premium varies substantially across countries. We explore whether the inter-country cross-sectional variation in value premium can be predicted by those variables known to predict the intra-country time-variation in value premium. After examining data from 23 developed markets and 13 emerging markets between 2000 and 2010, we found that the earnings-yield spread and the return dispersion have predictive power in emerging markets, but not in developed markets. The earnings-growth spread was found not to have significant predictive power.

Systematic risk and the cross section of hedge fund returns

This paper investigates the extent to which market risk, residual risk, and tail risk explain the cross-sectional dispersion in hedge fund returns. The paper introduces a comprehensive measure of systematic risk (SR) for individual hedge funds by breaking up total risk into systematic and fund-specific or residual risk components. Contrary to the popular understanding that hedge funds are market neutral, we find that systematic risk is a highly significant factor explaining the dispersion of cross-sectional returns while at the same time measures of residual risk and tail risk seem to have little explanatory power. Funds in the highest SR quintile generate 6% more average annual returns compared with funds in the lowest SR quintile. After controlling for a large set of fund characteristics and risk factors, systematic risk remains positive and highly significant, whereas the relation between residual risk and future fund returns continues to be insignificant. Hence, systematic risk is a powerful determinant of the cross-sectional differences in hedge fund returns.