Dispersal In Europe Research Articles

Analysis of the Early Pleistocene small mammals from Pirro Nord 13 (Apricena, southern Italy) and their implications for reconstructing the palaeoenvironment of the early human occupation in Europe

The Pirro Nord quarry (Apricena, Foggia, southern Italy, 41°48′6″N, 15°23′5″ E) is a well-known palaeontological and archaeological locality comprising an abundant and diverse Early Pleistocene vertebrate assemblage of mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles related to the Late Villafranchian and Early Biharian mammal ages. In this study, we describe the small mammal assemblages (insectivores, rodents, and bats) excavated between 2010 and 2022 to reconstruct the palaeoenvironment surrounding the site using Habitat Weighting and the Bioclimatic model methods. The rodent assemblage comprises mostly Allophaiomys cf. ruffoi, Apodemus sp., and Hystrix refossa, whereas Eliomys cf. intermedius was reported for the first time. Insectivores includes Talpa gr. minor-caeca; Asoriculus sp.; Erinaceus praeglacialis; and Sorex sp. Bats are represented by Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, Rhinolophus gr. euryale-mehelyi, Myotis gr. myotis-blythii, Myotis sp., and Miniopterus schreibersii. Landscape reconstruction attested to the presence of a rich and diverse environment with open areas and forest patches surrounding the Pirro Nord 13 site. The climate was slightly colder than that of current times in the same area, with higher precipitation. The presence of different ecosystems near the sites constituted suitable conditions for the first human dispersion in Europe, as already revealed by evidence from Barranco León D, Atapuerca TE7–14, and Fuente Nueva 3 elsewhere on the Iberian Peninsula. The study of small mammal assemblages improves our understanding of the chronological boundaries of the human occupation of Pirro Nord 13, adding important information in the context of the first peopling of the Mediterranean region between 1.6 and 1.3 million years ago.

Ecogeographic Drivers of the Spatial Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Europe and the United States, 2016-Early 2022.

H5Nx highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have caused outbreaks in Europe among wild and domestic birds since 2016 and were introduced to North America via wild migratory birds in December 2021. We examined the spatiotemporal extent of HPAI viruses across continents and characterized ecological and environmental predictors of virus spread between geographic regions by constructing a Bayesian phylodynamic generalized linear model (phylodynamic-GLM). The findings demonstrate localized epidemics of H5Nx throughout Europe in the first several years of the epizootic, followed by a singular branching point where H5N1 viruses were introduced to North America, likely via stopover locations throughout the North Atlantic. Once in the United States (US), H5Nx viruses spread at a greater rate between US-based regions as compared to prior spread in Europe. We established that geographic proximity is a predictor of virus spread between regions, implying that intercontinental transport across the Atlantic Ocean is relatively rare. An increase in mean ambient temperature over time was predictive of reduced H5Nx virus spread, which may reflect the effect of climate change on declines in host species abundance, decreased persistence of the virus in the environment, or changes in migratory patterns due to ecological alterations. Our data provide new knowledge about the spread and directionality of H5Nx virus dispersal in Europe and the US during an actively evolving intercontinental outbreak, including predictors of virus movement between regions, which will contribute to surveillance and mitigation strategies as the outbreak unfolds, and in future instances of uncontained avian spread of HPAI viruses.

Monitoring Spore Dispersal and Early Infections of Diplocarpon coronariae Causing Apple Blotch Using Spore Traps and a New qPCR Method.

Apple blotch (AB) is a major disease of apple in Asia and recently emerged in Europe and the United States. It is caused by the fungus Diplocarpon coronariae (formerly Marssonina coronaria; teleomorph: Diplocarpon mali) and leads to severe defoliation of apple trees in late summer, resulting in reduced yield and fruit quality. To develop effective disease management strategies, a sound knowledge of the pathogen's biology is crucial. Data on the early phase of disease development are scarce: No data on spore dispersal in Europe are available. We developed a highly sensitive TaqMan qPCR method to quantify D. coronariae conidia in spore trap samples. We monitored temporal and spatial dispersal of conidia of D. coronariae and the progress of AB in spring and early summer in an extensively managed apple orchard in Switzerland in 2019 and 2020. Our results show that D. coronariae overwinters in leaf litter, and spore dispersal and primary infections occur in late April and early May. We provide the first results describing early-season dispersal ofconidia of D. coronariae, which, combined with the observed disease progress, helps to understand the disease dynamics and will be a basis for improved disease forecast models. Using the new qPCR method, we detected D. coronariae in buds, on bark, and on fruit mummies, suggesting that several apple tissues might serve as overwintering habitats for the fungus, in addition to fallen leaves. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Less is more! Uluzzian technical behaviour at the cave site of Castelcivita (southern Italy)

The Uluzzian techno-complex is one of the first evidence for Homo sapiens successful dispersal in Europe. It develops from about 45 to 40 ka cal. BP, i.e., during the so-called “transition” from Middle to Upper Palaeolithic, the period in which Neandertals went extinct. The cave site of Castelcivita (southern Italy) contains a well-preserved stratigraphic sequence concentrated in this specific phase as it comprises Late-Final Mousterian, Uluzzian and Protoaurignacian layers. Here we present the technological study of the Uluzzian lithic assemblage found in layer rpi of this site. The study specifically focuses on the methods used to exploit cores, characterised by a low degree of technical investment in which management of the convexities and angles of debitage are almost absent. The most used percussion technique is bipolar striking on anvil. Despite they are not standardized, the obtained products show features which make them apt to be used in composite devices. The use of local raw materials, the production of small items and the marginal role of retouched pieces, among which some lunates are present, are also typical of the rpi assemblage. Based on these results we argue that the strengths of the Castelcivita rpi technological approach are its versatility, and the reduction of unnecessary costs related to raw material procurement, the configuration of the core and the management of the convexities. All these elements tend to the use of the available resources in the most productive way, without the final product losing efficiency, according to the concept “less is more”. A hypothesis possibly explaining this technical behaviour is provided in the conclusions.

Insights on the Early Pleistocene Hominin Population of the Guadix-Baza Depression (SE Spain) and a Review on the Ecology of the First Peopling of Europe

The chronology and environmental context of the first hominin dispersal in Europe have been subject to debate and controversy. The oldest settlements in Eurasia (e.g., Dmanisi, ∼1.8 Ma) suggest a scenario in which the Caucasus and southern Asia were occupied ∼0.4 Ma before the first peopling of Europe. Barranco León (BL) and Fuente Nueva 3 (FN3), two Early Pleistocene archeological localities dated to ∼1.4 Ma in Orce (Guadix-Baza Depression, SE Spain), provide the oldest evidence of hominin presence in Western Europe. At these sites, huge assemblages of large mammals with evidence of butchery and marrow processing have been unearthed associated to abundant Oldowan tools and a deciduous tooth ofHomosp. in the case of BL. Here, we: (i) review the Early Pleistocene archeological sites of Europe; (ii) discuss on the subsistence strategies of these hominins, including new estimates of resource abundance for the populations of Atapuerca and Orce; (iii) use cartographic data of the sedimentary deposits for reconstructing the landscape habitable in Guadix-Baza; and (iv) calculate the size of the hominin population using an estimate of population density based on resource abundance. Our results indicate that Guadix-Baza could be home for a small hominin population of 350–280 individuals. This basin is surrounded by the highest mountainous reliefs of the Alpine-Betic orogen and shows a limited number of connecting corridors with the surrounding areas, which could have limited gene flow with other hominin populations. Isolation would eventually lead to bottlenecks, genetic drift and inbreeding depression, conditions documented in the wild dog population of the basin, which probably compromised the viability of the hominin population in the medium to long term. This explains the discontinuous nature of the archeological record in Guadix-Baza, a situation that can also be extrapolated to the scarcity of hominin settlements for these ancient chronologies in Europe.

OCCURRENCE OF EUSTRONGYLIDES EXCISUS (NEMATODA:DIOCTOPHYMATIDAE) IN EUROPEAN PERCH (PERCA FLUVIATILIS) AND GREAT CORMORANT (PHALACROCORAX CARBO) IN LAKE ANNONE, NORTHERN ITALY.

The genus Eustrongylides includes zoonotic nematodes that infect fish species and fish-eating birds of freshwater ecosystems. This study aimed to evaluate the occurrence of Eustrongylides in the paratenic host Perca fluviatilis (European perch) and in the definitive host, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis (great cormorant), in Lake Annone, a shallow eutrophic lake located in the pre-mountainous area of the Alps in northwest Italy where wintering cormorants coexist with new breeding colonies. A total of 114 European perch and 48 cormorants were examined for the occurrence of Eustrongylides. All parasites collected were identified with microscopic examination and molecular analysis. Overall, 11 specimens of European perch (9.6%) and 13 individuals of cormorants (27%) harbored nematodes identified as fourth-stage larvae and adults of Eustrongylides excisus. The observed prevalence of Eustrongylides spp. appears to be intermediate between the higher values in cormorant breeding areas in northern Europe and the lower prevalence observed in their wintering sites in southernmost Europe. Considering the eutrophication status of freshwater ecosystems and the increasing population of the cormorants, Eustrongylides has an increasing potential range of dispersion in Europe, including Italy; thus an extensive surveillance should be carried out, especially given the zoonotic potential of this nematode.

The role of pre-pandemic teleworking and E-commerce culture in the COVID-19 dispersion in Europe.

The threats of the coronavirus have shifted the workplace of many people from office to home and also made e-commerce the primary medium for purchases. While these changes were made in an effort to mitigate contagion, there are no studies, to the best of our knowledge, that address if teleworking and e-commerce culture prior to the pandemic influenced the dispersion of the virus. In our study we examine whether pre-existing teleworking practices and e-commerce activity have played an important role in the COVID-19 dispersion in Europe. Based on a set of data from all European countries, the present study employs the Philips & Sul methodology to explore corona convergence patterns. Our findings suggest that pre-existing e-commerce activity and teleworking practices had little to no effect in reducing the initial opportunities of individuals to contract the virus leading to the conclusion that other social interactions must have played a more important role.

Pliocene to Middle Pleistocene climate history in the Guadix-Baza Basin, and the environmental conditions of early Homo dispersal in Europe

The Guadix-Baza Basin (GBB) in Andalucía, Spain, comprises palaeontological and archaeological sites dating from the Early Pliocene to the Middle Pleistocene, including some of the earliest sites with evidence for the presence of early humans (Homo sp.) in Europe. Thus, the history of climate and environments in this basin contributes significantly to our understanding of the conditions under which early humans spread into Europe during the Early Pleistocene. Here we present estimates of precipitation and primary productivity in the GBB from the Pliocene to the Middle Pleistocene based on dental ecometrics in fossil communities of large herbivorous mammals, and perform an ecometrics-based distribution modelling to analyse the environmental conditions of Early and Middle Pleistocene human sites in Europe. Our results show that Early Pleistocene humans generally occupied on average relatively diverse habitats with ecotones, such as woodlands and savannas, but avoided very open and harsh (cool or dry) environments. During the Middle Pleistocene in Europe, humans occupied a comparatively much broader range of environments than during the Early Pleistocene, but were on average more concentrated in environments where the dental ecometric of mammals indicate wooded palaeoenvironments. In the earliest human occupation sites of the GBB, Barranco León and Fuente Nueva 3, the mean annual precipitation and net primary production estimates indicate climatic conditions close to modern Mediterranean sclerophyllous woodland environments, but with slightly higher primary productivity, indicating some similarity with East African woodlands. On the other hand, the environments did not resemble African grassland savannas. The browse-dominated diets of ungulates from Barranco León and Fuente Nueva 3 further suggest palaeoenvironments where grasses were a minor component of the vegetation. In the slightly older site of Venta Micena that has no evidence for the presence of hominins, dental ecometric estimates indicate climate and environments similar to Mediterranean “forest steppe” environments existing in the surroundings of Baza today. Grasses were prevalent in the diet of some taxa, especially equids, in Venta Micena, but most of the species show browse-dominated diets even there.

Human-existence probability of the Aurignacian techno-complex under extreme climate conditions

The Aurignacian occurred in the middle of the Last Glacial Period, in which climate underwent major changes on millennial time scales, highlighted by the Greenland interstadial and stadial periods. Here we investigate how climate change influenced the Aurignacian human dispersal in Europe and search for answers to several highly-debated questions in the Archaeology and Paleoanthropology. We use a global climate model to simulate the prototypical stadial and interstadial climate conditions and develop a human-existence potential (HEP) model to compute the probability of human existence by combining the climate data with archaeological site data. Using the HEP model, we reconstruct the patterns of human-existence probability and provide a pan-European overview of the Aurignacian human dispersal. The model results suggest that climate change significantly influences human dispersal, but there is evidence of human adaptation to climate. The Aurignacian dispersal is likely achieved in alternating modes of expansion and contraction. In comparison to interstadial times, human-existence probability in stadial times is largely reduced, but hot-spots exist in the climate shadows of large topographic features.

Evidence for Plio-Pleistocene Duck Mussel Refugia in the Azov Sea River Basins

Freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionoida) play an important role in freshwater habitats as ecosystem engineers of the water environment. Duck mussel Anodonta anatina is widely distributed throughout Europe, Siberia, and Western and Central Asia, which makes it a convenient object for biogeographic studies. In this study, we analyzed the divergence of A. anatina populations and discovered a separate genetic lineage distributed in rivers of the Azov Sea basin. This was confirmed by the high genetic distances between this group and previously defined populations, and by the position of this clade in the Bayesian phylogeny calibrated by an external substitution rate. Based on our approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis, biogeographic scenarios of A. anatina dispersal in Europe and Northern, Western, and Central Asia over the Neogene–Quaternary were simulated. The haplogroup’s isolation in the rivers of the Azov Sea basin most likely occurred in the Late Pliocene that was probably facilitated by rearrangement of freshwater basins boundaries in the Ponto-Caspian Region. Population genetic indices show the stability of this group, which allowed it to exist in the river basins of the region for a long time. The discovery of a long-term refugium in the rivers of the Azov Sea led to a better understanding of freshwater fauna evolution in the Neogene–Quaternary and highlighted the importance of conservation of these freshwater animals in the region as a source of unique genetic diversity.

Genomic footprints of a biological invasion: Introduction from Asia and dispersal in Europe of the topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva).

Facilitated by the intensification of global trading, the introduction and dispersal of species to areas in which they are historically non‐native is nowadays common. From an evolutionary standpoint, invasions are paradoxical: not only non‐native environments could be different from native ones for which introduced individuals would be ill‐adapted, but also small founding population size should be associated with reduced adaptive potential. As such, biological invasions are considered valuable real‐time evolutionary experiments. Here, we investigated the population structure and adaptive potential of the highly invasive topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva) across Europe and East Asia. We RAD‐sequenced 301 specimens from sixteen populations and three distinct within‐catchment invaded regions as well as two locations in the native range. With 13,785 single nucleotide polymorphisms, we provide conclusive evidence for a genome‐wide signature of two distinct invasion events, in Slovakia and Turkey, each originating from a specific area in the native range. A third invaded area, in France, appears to be the result of dispersal within the invasive range. Few loci showed signs of selection, the vast majority of which being identified in the Slovakian region. Functional annotation suggests that faster early stage development, resistance to pollution and immunocompetence contribute to the invasion success of the local habitats. By showing that populations in the invasive range have different evolutionary histories, our study reinforces the idea that populations, rather than species, are the units to consider in invasion biology.

Shorebirds as important vectors for plant dispersal in Europe

Shorebirds (Charadriiformes) undergo rapid migrations with potential for long‐distance dispersal (LDD) of plants. We studied the frequency of endozoochory by shorebirds in different parts of Europe covering a broad latitudinal range and different seasons. We assessed whether plants dispersed conformed to morphological dispersal syndromes. A total of 409 excreta samples (271 faeces and 138 pellets) were collected from redshank Tringa totanus, black‐winged stilt Himantopus himantopus, pied avocet Recurvirostra avosetta, northern lapwing Vanellus vanellus, Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata and black‐tailed godwit Limosa limosa in south‐west Spain, north‐west England, southern Ireland and Iceland in 2005 and 2016, and intact seeds were extracted and identified. Godwits were sampled just before or after migratory movements between England and Iceland. The germinability of seeds was tested. Intact diaspores were recovered from all bird species and study areas, and were present in 13% of samples overall. Thirteen plant families were represented, including Charophyceae and 26 angiosperm taxa. Only four species had an ‘endozoochory syndrome’. Four alien species were recorded. Ellenberg values classified three species as aquatic and 20 as terrestrial. Overall, 89% of seeds were from terrestrial plants, and 11% from aquatic plants. Average seed length was higher in redshank pellets than in their faeces. Six species were germinated, none of which had an endozoochory syndrome. Seeds were recorded during spring and autumn migration. Plant species recorded have broad latitudinal ranges consistent with LDD via shorebirds. Crucially, morphological syndromes do not adequately predict LDD potential, and more empirical work is required to identify which plants are dispersed by shorebirds. Incorporating endozoochory by shorebirds and other migratory waterbirds into plant distribution models would allow us to better understand the natural processes that facilitated colonization of oceanic islands, or to improve predictions of how plants will respond to climate change, or how alien species spread.

Chronology of the cave interior sediments at Gran Dolina archaeological site, Atapuerca (Spain)

The so-called “Gran Dolina site” (Atapuerca mountain range, N Spain) is a karstic cavity filled by sediments during the Pleistocene, some of which contain a rich ensemble of archaeological and paleontological records. These sediments have contributed significantly to our understanding of early human dispersal in Europe but, in contrast, older, interior facies deposits have received much less of attention. The stratigraphy of Gran Dolina reveals an abrupt sedimentary change of interior to entrance facies from bottom to top, reflecting a significant paleoenvironmental change that promoted the accumulation of sediments transported from the vicinity of the cave by water or “en masse”. Since the major magnetic polarity reversal known as the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary (0.78 Ma) was detected within the TD7 unit in the middle of the stratigraphic section, we carried out a new combined paleomagnetic, radiometric (U-Pb), and electron spin resonance (ESR) dating study of the lower part of the sequence in order to constrain the chronology of the interior facies at Gran Dolina. U-Pb analysis of speleothems did not produce age information as the samples proved to be extremely unradiogenic. The magnetic stratigraphy of the cave interior sediments reveals a dominant reverse magnetic polarity, coherent with a Matuyama age, and interrupted by a normal polarity magnetozone interpreted as the Jaramillo Subchron (1.0–1.1 Ma). ESR ages on quartz grains from the upper part of the interior facies sediments are coherent with such an interpretation. We conclude that the fluvial deposits (interior facies) that constitute the cave floor began accumulating before 1.2 Ma. The development of large cave entrances at Gran Dolina occurred shortly after the Jaramillo Subchron but before ca 900 ka ago.

Before and after the earliest Homo dispersal in Europe: Evidence from the early Pleistocene sites of the Italian Peninsula

Fossil mammal assemblages found in various localities of the Italian Peninsula provide significant information to create a detailed biochronological framework for the middle–late Villafranchian and Epivillafranchian of Europe and to reconstruct the evolution of early Pleistocene terrestrial ecosystems, when the earliest dispersal of Homo in Europe occurred. Here, we provide an updated critical overview on three Italian sites that in the last few years have provided the most interesting information on this crucial time interval: Coste San Giacomo (Latium; about 2.1 million years, Ma), Pantalla (Umbria; about 1.9–1.7Ma), and Pirro Nord (Apulia; about 1.6–1.3Ma).

Host Genetic Variation Does Not Determine Spatio-Temporal Patterns of European Bat 1 Lyssavirus.

The majority of bat rabies cases in Europe are attributed to European bat 1 lyssavirus (EBLV-1), circulating mainly in serotine bats (Eptesicus serotinus). Two subtypes have been defined (EBLV-1a and EBLV-1b), each associated with a different geographical distribution. In this study, we undertake a comprehensive sequence analysis based on 80 newly obtained EBLV-1 nearly complete genome sequences from nine European countries over a 45-year period to infer selection pressures, rates of nucleotide substitution, and evolutionary time scale of these two subtypes in Europe. Our results suggest that the current lineage of EBLV-1 arose in Europe ∼600 years ago and the virus has evolved at an estimated average substitution rate of ∼4.19×10−5 subs/site/year, which is among the lowest recorded for RNA viruses. In parallel, we investigate the genetic structure of French serotine bats at both the nuclear and mitochondrial level and find that they constitute a single genetic cluster. Furthermore, Mantel tests based on interindividual distances reveal the absence of correlation between genetic distances estimated between viruses and between host individuals. Taken together, this indicates that the genetic diversity observed in our E. serotinus samples does not account for EBLV-1a and -1b segregation and dispersal in Europe.

Early Levallois and the beginning of the Middle Paleolithic in central Italy.

In the second half of the 19th century Pleistocene faunas were discovered in two sites, Sedia del Diavolo and Monte delle Gioie, contained in deposits of the Aniene River in the area of Rome (Latium, Italy). Fieldwork by A.C. Blanc in the late 1930’s proved the association of fauna and lithic industry within fluvial deposits interbedded with volcanoclastic layers. A human femoral diaphysis and a metatarsal were later identified in the faunal assemblage from Sedia del Diavolo and evaluated as Neandertal. The lithic assemblages from these two sites were the basis of the definition of the Protopontinian by M. Taschini, which she viewed as a late Middle Pleistocene industry very similar to the later, Upper Pleistocene Pontinian industries, thought to be characteristic of the Latium Mousterian. The chronostratigraphic framework of the Aniene river deposits has been recently updated and the lithic assemblages from these two sites are now confidently dated between 295 and 290 ka, close to the transition from MIS 9 to MIS 8. They fit chronologically between the industries of layers m and d from Torre in Pietra, a site 26 km northwest of Rome. The presence of the Levallois debitage is indisputable yet it occurs within an original technical context, different from what is known in other early occurrences of the Levallois. The date confirms the proposed chronology for the early Levallois in Europe. More importantly these two assemblages demonstrate that this technology can emerge in more diversified contexts than usually described. This suggests that its dispersal in Europe may have been rapid.

Price Level Convergence within the Euro Area: How Europe Caught Up with the US and Lost Terrain Again

Persistent price differences across euro area countries are an indication of incomplete economic integration. We analyze long and short run developments of price level dispersion in the euro area and compare the results with the situation in the US. We find that monetary and economic integration in Europe has been successful in establishing a major downward trend in price level differences across countries since 1960. In 2007, price level dispersion in the euro area was at the same level as in the US. After the financial crisis, dispersion first continued its downward trend before diverging economic conditions across euro area countries contributed to a widening of price level differences again. Short-run dynamics show that price dispersion in Europe deviates more from the long-term equilibrium than in the US, although deviations have become smaller since EMU.

Phylogenetic characterization of Central/Southern European lineage 2 West Nile virus: analysis of human outbreaks in Italy and Greece, 2013–2014

In recent years, West Nile virus (WNV) lineage 2 has been spreading and causing disease outbreaks in humans and animals in Europe. In order to characterize viral diversity, we performed full-length genome sequencing of WNV lineage 2 from human samples collected during outbreaks in Italy and Greece in 2013 and 2014. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these WNV lineage 2 genomes belonged to a monophyletic clade derived from a single introduction into Europe of the prototype Hungarian strain. Correlation of phylogenetic data with geospatial information showed geographical clustering of WNV genome sequences both in Italy and in Greece, indicating that the virus had evolved and diverged during its dispersal in Europe, leading to the emergence of novel genotypes, as it adapted to local ecological niches. These genotypes carried divergent conserved amino acid substitutions, which might have been relevant for viral adaptation, as suggested by selection pressure analysis and in silico and experimental modelling of sequence changes. In conclusion, the results of this study provide further information on WNV lineage 2 transmission dynamics in Europe, and emphasize the need for WNV surveillance activities to monitor viral evolution and diversity.

MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe

Abstract. This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting.

On the fallacy of using orthogenetic models of rectilinear change in arvicolid teeth for estimating the age of the first human settlements in Western Europe

Lozano-Fernández et al. (Lozano-Fernández I, Blain HA, López-García JM, Agustí J. 2014. Biochronology of the first hominid remains in Europe using the vole Mimomys savini: Fuente Nueva 3 and Barranco León D, Guadix-Baza Basin, south-eastern Spain. Hist Biol: Int J Paleobiol. doi:10.1080/08912963.2014.920015) recently published age estimates for two Late Villafranchian sites of Orce (Guadix-Baza basin, SE Spain), BL-D and FN-3, which provide some of the earliest evidence of human presence in Western Europe. The estimates were obtained from mean Lm1 values of the water vole Mimomys savini preserved in the sites and a couple of rectilinear equations derived in the Atapuerca TD section for site age on tooth length. However, this chronometric tool has problems that discourage its use in biostratigraphy, including: (1) the assumption of an orthogenetic trend of Lm1 increase during the evolution of the M. savini/Arvicola lineage; (2) the use of a chronology for the TD section not supported by original ESR data; (3) the discrepancies between the mean Lm1 values published for the TD levels and (4) the chronological ranges predicted when the standard deviations are used, which are exceedingly large as to be of value for biostratigraphic purposes. As a result, the pseudo numerical ages estimated for the Orce sites only add noise to the timing of the first human dispersal in Europe, which is based on a combination of results from well-established techniques such as palaeomagnetism, biostratigraphy and ESR.