Disparities In Life Expectancy Research Articles

Decolonization and life expectancy in the Caribbean

Decolonization has brought political independence to half the Caribbean states in the last half of the 20th century, while the other states remain affiliated. Previous studies suggested a beneficial impact of affiliated status on population health, which may be mediated by more favorable economic development. We assessed how disparities in life expectancy between currently sovereign and affiliated states developed over time, whether decolonization coincided with changes in life expectancy, and whether decolonization coincided with similar changes in GDP per capita.Time-series data on life expectancy and related variables, GDP per capita and political status were collected from harmonized databases. We quantified variations in life expectancy by current political status during the 1950–2010 period. We assessed whether decolonization coincided with life expectancy trend changes by: 1. calculating the annual changes before and after independence, and 2. evaluating trend breaks in a predefined period during decolonization using joinpoint analyses. Similar analyses were undertaken for GDP per capita.Life expectancy in currently sovereign Caribbean states was already lower than in affiliated states before political independence. Overall, decolonization coincided with reductions in life expectancy growth, but not with reductions in economic growth, and changes in life expectancy growth in the decade after independence did not correspond with changes in economic performance. The widening of the life expectancy gap between currently sovereign and affiliated states accelerated in the 1990's and continues to increase.Despite considerable life expectancy gains in all Caribbean states, life expectancy in currently sovereign states increasingly lags behind that of states which remained affiliated. Our results indicate that changing economic conditions were not the main determinant of the unfavorable trends in life expectancy during and after decolonization. Circumstantial evidence points to the weakening of bureaucracies during decolonization underlying the uneven life expectancy developments of currently affiliated and sovereign states.

Increased Life Expectancy in New York City, 2001-2010: An Exploration by Cause of Death and Demographic Characteristics.

New York City's (NYC's) life expectancy gains have been greater than those seen nationally. We examined life-expectancy changes over the past decade in selected NYC subpopulations and explored which age groups and causes of death contributed most to the increases. We calculated life expectancy with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 2001-2010 by sex and race/ethnicity. Life expectancy was decomposed by age group and cause of death. Logistic regressions were conducted to reinforce the results from decomposition by controlling confounders. Overall, NYC residents' life expectancy at birth increased from 77.9 years (95% CI, 77.8-78.0) in 2001 to 80.9 years (95% CI, 80.8-81.0) in 2010. Decreases in deaths from heart disease, cancer, and HIV disease accounted for 50%, 16%, and 11%, respectively, of the gains. Decreased mortality in older age groups (≥65 years) accounted for 45.6% of the overall change. Life expectancy increased for both sexes, across all racial/ethnic groups, and for both the US-born and the foreign-born. Disparities in life expectancy decreased as overall life expectancy increased. Decreased mortality among older adults and from heart disease, cancer, and HIV infection accounted for most of the increases.

The Health Effects of Income Inequality: Averages and Disparities.

Much research has investigated the association of income inequality with average life expectancy, usually finding negative correlations that are not very robust. A smaller body of work has investigated socioeconomic disparities in life expectancy, which have widened in many countries since 1980. These two lines of work should be seen as complementary because changes in average life expectancy are unlikely to affect all socioeconomic groups equally. Although most theories imply long and variable lags between changes in income inequality and changes in health, empirical evidence is confined largely to short-term effects. Rising income inequality can affect individuals in two ways. Direct effects change individuals' own income. Indirect effects change other people's income, which can then change a society's politics, customs, and ideals, altering the behavior even of those whose own income remains unchanged. Indirect effects can thus change both average health and the slope of the relationship between individual income and health.

Mass HIV Treatment and Sex Disparities in Life Expectancy: Demographic Surveillance in Rural South Africa.

BackgroundWomen have better patient outcomes in HIV care and treatment than men in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed—at the population level—whether and to what extent mass HIV treatment is associated with changes in sex disparities in adult life expectancy, a summary metric of survival capturing mortality across the full cascade of HIV care. We also determined sex-specific trends in HIV mortality and the distribution of HIV-related deaths in men and women prior to and at each stage of the clinical cascade.Methods and FindingsData were collected on all deaths occurring from 2001 to 2011 in a large population-based surveillance cohort (52,964 women and 45,688 men, ages 15 y and older) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy (93% response rate). Demographic data were linked at the individual level to clinical records from the public sector HIV treatment and care program that serves the region. Annual rates of HIV-related mortality were assessed for men and women separately, and female-to-male rate ratios were estimated in exponential hazard models. Sex-specific trends in adult life expectancy and HIV-cause-deleted adult life expectancy were calculated. The proportions of HIV deaths that accrued to men and women at different stages in the HIV cascade of care were estimated annually.Following the beginning of HIV treatment scale-up in 2004, HIV mortality declined among both men and women. Female adult life expectancy increased from 51.3 y (95% CI 49.7, 52.8) in 2003 to 64.5 y (95% CI 62.7, 66.4) in 2011, a gain of 13.2 y. Male adult life expectancy increased from 46.9 y (95% CI 45.6, 48.2) in 2003 to 55.9 y (95% CI 54.3, 57.5) in 2011, a gain of 9.0 y. The gap between female and male adult life expectancy doubled, from 4.4 y in 2003 to 8.6 y in 2011, a difference of 4.3 y (95% CI 0.9, 7.6). For women, HIV mortality declined from 1.60 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.46, 1.75) in 2003 to 0.56 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.48, 0.65) in 2011. For men, HIV-related mortality declined from 1.71 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.55, 1.88) to 0.76 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.67, 0.87) in the same period. The female-to-male rate ratio for HIV mortality declined from 0.93 (95% CI 0.82–1.07) in 2003 to 0.73 (95% CI 0.60–0.89) in 2011, a statistically significant decline (p = 0.046). In 2011, 57% and 41% of HIV-related deaths occurred among men and women, respectively, who had never sought care for HIV in spite of the widespread availability of free HIV treatment. The results presented here come from a poor rural setting in southern Africa with high HIV prevalence and high HIV treatment coverage; broader generalizability is unknown. Additionally, factors other than HIV treatment scale-up may have influenced population mortality trends.ConclusionsMass HIV treatment has been accompanied by faster declines in HIV mortality among women than men and a growing female–male disparity in adult life expectancy at the population level. In 2011, over half of male HIV deaths occurred in men who had never sought clinical HIV care. Interventions to increase HIV testing and linkage to care among men are urgently needed.

Social Determinants of Risk and Outcomes for Cardiovascular Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

An Institute of Medicine report titled U.S. Health in International Perspective: Shorter Lives, Poorer Health documents the decline in the health status of Americans relative to people in other high-income countries, concluding that “Americans are dying and suffering from illness and injury at rates that are demonstrably unnecessary.”1 The report blames many factors, “adverse economic and social conditions” among them. In an editorial in Science discussing the findings of the Institute of Medicine report, Bayer et al2 call for a national commission on health “to address the social causes that have put the USA last among comparable nations.” Although mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the United States has been on a linear decline since the 1970s, the burden remains high. It accounted for 31.9% of deaths in 2010.3 There is general agreement that the decline is the result, in equal measure, of advances in prevention and advances in treatment. These advances in turn rest on dramatic successes in efforts to understand the biology of CVD that began in the late 1940s.4,5 It has been assumed that the steady downward trend in mortality will continue into the future as further breakthroughs in biological science lead to further advances in prevention and treatment. This view of the future may not be warranted. The prevalence of CVD in the United States is expected to rise 10% between 2010 and 2030.6 This change in the trajectory of cardiovascular burden is the result not only of an aging population but also of a dramatic rise over the past 25 years in obesity and the hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and physical inactivity that accompany weight gain. Although there is no consensus on the precise causes of the obesity epidemic, a dramatic change in the underlying biology of Americans is …

Sources of Increasing Differential Mortality Among the Aged by Socioeconomic Status

This paper uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to explore the extent and causes of widening differences in life expectancy by socioeconomic status (SES) for older persons. We construct alternative measures of SES using educational attainment and average (career) earnings in the prime working ages of 41-50. We also use information on causes of death, health status and various behavioral indicators (smoking, drinking, and obesity) that are believed to be predictors of premature death in an effort to explain the causes of the growing disparities in life expectancy between people of high and low SES.The paper finds that:-- There is strong statistical evidence in the HRS of a growing inequality of mortality risk by SES among more recent birth cohorts compared with cohorts born before 1930.-- Both educational attainment and career earnings as constructed from Social Security records are equally useful indicators of SES, although the distinction in mortality risk by education is greatest for those with and without a college degree.-- There has been a significant decline in the risk of dying from cancer or heart conditions for older Americans in the top half of the income distribution, but we find no such reduction of mortality risk in the bottom half of the distribution.-- The inclusion of the behavioral variables and health status result in substantial improvement in the predictions of mortality, but they do not identify the sources of the increase in differential mortality. The policy implications of the findings are:-- Indexing the retirement age to increases in average life expectancy to stabilize OASDI finances may have unintended distributional consequences, because most mortality gains have been concentrated among workers in the top half of the earnings distribution.-- The fact that we cannot identify the sources of the increase in differential mortality contributes to uncertainty about the distributional effects of increases in the retirement age in future years.

Trends in Longevity in the Americas: Disparities in Life Expectancy in Women and Men, 1965-2010.

ObjectiveWe describe trends in life expectancy at birth (LE) and between-country LE disparities since 1965, in Latin America and the Caribbean.Methods & FindingsLE trends since 1965 are described for three geographical sub-regions: the Caribbean, Central America, and South America. LE disparities are explored using a suite of absolute and relative disparity metrics, with measurement consensus providing confidence to observed differences. LE has increased throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. Compared to the Caribbean, LE has increased by an additional 6.6 years in Central America and 4.1 years in South America. Since 1965, average reductions in between-country LE disparities were 14% (absolute disparity) and 23% (relative disparity) in the Caribbean, 55% and 51% in Central America, 55% and 52% in South America.ConclusionsLE in Latin America and the Caribbean is exceeding ‘minimum standard’ international targets, and is improving relative to the world region with the highest human longevity. The Caribbean, which had the highest LE and the lowest between-country LE disparities in Latin America and the Caribbean in 1965-70, had the lowest LE and the highest LE disparities by 2005-10. Caribbean Governments have championed a collaborative solution to the growing burden of non-communicable disease, with 15 territories signing on to the Declaration of Port of Spain, signalling regional commitment to a coordinated public-health response. The persistent LE inequity between Caribbean countries suggests that public health interventions should be tailored to individual countries to be most effective. Between- and within-country disparity monitoring for a range of health metrics should be a priority, first to guide country-level policy initiatives, then to contribute to the assessment of policy success.

Strengthening Mental Health in UN’s Sustainable Development Goals

Strengthening Mental Health in UN’s Sustainable Development Goals

Disparities in life expectancy of pacific northwest American Indians and Alaska natives: analysis of linkage-corrected life tables.

American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) experience a high burden of mortality and other disparities compared with the general population. Life tables are an important population health indicator; however, federal agencies have not produced life tables for AI/ANs, largely due to racial misclassification on death certificates. Our objective was to correct this misclassification and create life tables for AI/ANs who resided in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S., making comparisons with the general population. To correct racial misclassification, we conducted probabilistic record linkages between death certificates from three Northwest states-Idaho, Oregon, and Washington State-issued during 2008-2010, and AI/AN patient registration records. We calculated mortality rates and generated period life tables for AI/ANs and non-Hispanic white (NHW) Americans. Overall life expectancy at birth for Northwest AI/ANs was 72.8 years, which was 6.9 years lower than that of NHW Americans. Male AI/ANs had a lower life expectancy (70.9 years) than female AI/ANs (74.6 years). The disparity in life expectancy between AI/ANs and their NHW counterparts was higher for females (with AI/ANs living 7.3 years fewer than NHW females) than for males (with AI/ANs living 6.7 years fewer than NHW males). The greatest disparity in mortality rates was seen among young adults. Data linkage with a registry of known AI/ANs allowed us to generate accurate life tables that had not previously been available for this population and revealed disparities in both life expectancy at birth and survival across the life span. These results represent an important tool to help AI/AN communities as they monitor their health and promote efforts to eliminate health disparities.

An Updated Review of Interventions that Include Promotion of Physical Activity for Adult Men.

The marked disparity in life expectancy between men and women suggests men are a vulnerable group requiring targeted health promotion programs. As such, there is an increasing need for health promotion strategies that effectively engage men with their health and/or illness management. Programs that promote physical activity could significantly improve the health of men. Although George et al. (Sports Med 42(3):281, 30) reviewed physical activity programs involving adult males published between 1990 and 2010, developments in men’s health have prompted the emergence of new sex- and gender-specific approaches targeting men. The purpose of this review was to: (1) extend and update the review undertaken by George et al. (Sports Med 42(3):281, 30) concerning the effectiveness of physical activity programs in males, and (2) evaluate the integration of gender-specific influences in the content, design, and delivery of men’s health promotion programs. A search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, ScienceDirect, Web of Science, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Library, and the SPORTDiscus databases for articles published between January 2010 and August 2014 was conducted. In total, 35 studies, involving evaluations of 31 programs, were identified. Findings revealed that a variety of techniques and modes of delivery could effectively promote physical activity among men. Though the majority of programs were offered exclusively to men, 12 programs explicitly integrated gender-related influences in male-specific programs in ways that recognized men’s interests and preferences. Innovations in male-only programs that focus on masculine ideals and gender influences to engage men in increasing their physical activity hold potential for informing strategies to promote other areas of men’s health.

Targeting housing mobility vouchers to help families with children.

Targeting housing mobility vouchers to help families with children.

Racial Disparities in Life Expectancy in Brazil: Challenges From a Multiracial Society

We calculated life expectancy at birth for Whites, Blacks, and mixed races in Brazil, and decomposed the differences by causes of death. We used Ministry of Health death records and 2010 Census population data (190,755,799 residents and 1,136,947 deaths). We applied the Arriaga methodology to calculate decomposition of life expectancy by cause of death. We performed sensitivity analyses for underreporting of deaths, missing data, and numerator-denominator bias. Using standard life table methods, female life expectancy was highest for mixed races (78.80 years), followed by Whites (77.54 years), then Blacks (76.32 years). Male life expectancy was highest for Whites (71.10 years) followed closely by mixed races (71.08 years), and lower for Blacks (70.11 years). Homicides contributed the most to the relative life expectancy increase for Whites, and cancer decreased the gap. After adjustment for underreporting, missing data, and numerator-denominator bias, life expectancy was higher for Whites than for Blacks and mixed races. Despite wide socioeconomic differences between Whites and mixed races, standard life table methods showed that mixed races had higher life expectancy than Whites for women, and similar for men. With the increase of multiracial populations, measuring racial disparities in life expectancy will be a fast-growing challenge.

Widening Rural–Urban Disparities in Life Expectancy, U.S., 1969–2009

There is limited research on rural-urban disparities in U.S. life expectancy. This study examined trends in rural-urban disparities in life expectancy at birth in the U.S. between 1969 and 2009. The 1969-2009 U.S. county-level mortality data linked to a rural-urban continuum measure were analyzed. Life expectancies were calculated by age, gender, and race for 3-year time periods between 1969 and 2004 and for 2005-2009 using standard life-table methodology. Differences in life expectancy were decomposed by age and cause of death. Life expectancy was inversely related to levels of rurality. In 2005-2009, those in large metropolitan areas had a life expectancy of 79.1 years, compared with 76.9 years in small urban towns and 76.7 years in rural areas. When stratified by gender, race, and income, life expectancy ranged from 67.7 years among poor black men in nonmetropolitan areas to 89.6 among poor Asian/Pacific Islander women in metropolitan areas. Rural-urban disparities widened over time. In 1969-1971, life expectancy was 0.4 years longer in metropolitan than in nonmetropolitan areas (70.9 vs 70.5 years). By 2005-2009, the life expectancy difference had increased to 2.0 years (78.8 vs 76.8 years). The rural poor and rural blacks currently experience survival probabilities that urban rich and urban whites enjoyed 4 decades earlier. Causes of death contributing most to the increasing rural-urban disparity and lower life expectancy in rural areas include heart disease, unintentional injuries, COPD, lung cancer, stroke, suicide, and diabetes. Between 1969 and 2009, residents in metropolitan areas experienced larger gains in life expectancy than those in nonmetropolitan areas, contributing to the widening gap.

Understanding Public Resistance to Messages About Health Disparities

Advocates and policymakers strategically communicate about health disparities in an effort to raise public awareness, often by emphasizing the social and economic factors that influence these disparities. Previous research suggests that predisposing political orientation and values related to self-reliance and personal responsibility may produce resistance to such messages. In this study, the authors culled 4 messages about the causes of disparities in life expectancy from public discourse and randomly presented them to a nationally representative sample of 732 Americans. Three indicators of message resistance were measured: belief that messages are weak, elicitation of anger, and production of counterarguments. Expected political differences in message resistance were identified, with Republicans perceiving messages to be weaker, arousing less anger, and eliciting more counterarguing than for Democrats. Among 3 messages that described the social determinants of health disparities, a message that identified the role of personal choices (explicitly acknowledging personal responsibility) produced the least anger and counterarguing among Republicans. Political differences in anger arousal and counterarguing can be explained, in part, by predisposing values toward personal responsibility. These findings have relevance for policy advocates seeking to bridge public divides surrounding health disparities and for scholars advancing theories of reactance to policy-relevant health messaging.

Disparities in Life Expectancy Across US Counties Linked to County Social Factors, 2009 Community Health Status Indicators (CHSI)

In response to a National Healthy People 2020 goal to create social environments to improve health, we examined US community health status by social factors to identify opportunities for health improvement. County-level relationships between life expectancy and known social determinants of health were assessed. An ecological study of all 3,141 US counties or equivalents using 2009 Community Health Status Indicators dataset was conducted. We examined health status and social indicators across counties and correlation of average life expectancy with educational, income, and racial indicators. Life expectancy varied across US counties (median, 77 years; range, 67–81) and was negatively correlated with percentages of residents living below the federal poverty level (r = −0.65; P < 0.05), of adults aged ≥25 years without a high school diploma (r = −0.64; P < 0.05), and of African–American residents (r = −0.56; P < 0.05). By contrast, life expectancy positively correlated with percentage of White-American residents (r = 0.51; P < 0.05). Correlations persisted across counties with varying poverty and educational attainment; strongest correlations found in counties with largest percentage of residents in poverty or adults with no high school diploma. Life expectancy across US counties is moderately to strongly linked with county poverty, educational attainment, and racial composition. Counties with the longest life expectancy need further examination to identify their effective policies, resources, and investments responsible for better health.

Implementing a working together model for Aboriginal patients with acute coronary syndrome: an Aboriginal Hospital Liaison Officer and a specialist cardiac nurse working together to improve hospital care.

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) contributes to the disparity in life expectancy between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. Improving hospital care for Aboriginal patients has been identified as a means of addressing this disparity. This project developed and implemented a working together model of care, comprising an Aboriginal Hospital Liaison Officer and a specialist cardiac nurse, providing care coordination specifically directed at improving attendance at cardiac rehabilitation services for Aboriginal Australians in a large metropolitan hospital in Melbourne. A quality improvement framework using a retrospective case notes audit evaluated Aboriginal patients' admissions to hospital and identified low attendance rates at cardiac rehabilitation services. A working together model of care coordination by an Aboriginal Hospital Liaison Officer and a specialist cardiac nurse was implemented to improve cardiac rehabilitation attendance in Aboriginal patients admitted with ACS to the cardiac wards of the hospital. A retrospective medical records audit showed that there were 68 Aboriginal patients admitted to the cardiac wards with ACS from 1 July 2008 to 30 June 2011. A referral to cardiac rehabilitation was recorded for 42% of these. During the implementation of the model of care, 13 of 15 patients (86%) received a referral to cardiac rehabilitation and eight of the 13 (62%) attended. Implementation of the working together model demonstrated improved referral to and attendance at cardiac rehabilitation services, thereby, has potential to prevent complications and mortality. WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE TOPIC?: Aboriginal Australians experience disparities in access to recommended care for acute coronary syndrome. This may contribute to the life expectancy gap between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. WHAT DOES THIS PAPER ADD?: This paper describes a model of care involving an Aboriginal Hospital Liaisons Officer and a specialist cardiac nurse working together to improve hospital care and attendance at cardiac rehabilitation services for Aboriginal Australians with acute coronary syndrome. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTITIONERS?: The working together model of care could be implemented across mainstream health services where Aboriginal people attend for specialist care.

The Contribution of Health Care and Other Interventions to Black-White Disparities in Life Expectancy, 1980-2007.

Black-white mortality disparities remain sizable in the United States. In this study, we use the concept of avoidable/amenable mortality to estimate cause-of-death contributions to the difference in life expectancy between whites and blacks by gender in the United States in 1980, 1993, and 2007. We begin with a review of the concept of "avoidable mortality" and results of prior studies using this cause-of-death classification. We then present the results of our empirical analyses. We classified causes of death as amenable to medical care, sensitive to public health policies and health behaviors, ischemic heart disease, suicide, HIV/AIDS, and all other causes combined. We used vital statistics data on deaths and Census Bureau population estimates and standard demographic decomposition techniques. In 2007, causes of death amenable to medical care continued to account for close to 2 years of the racial difference in life expectancy among men (2.08) and women (1.85). Causes amenable to public health interventions made a larger contribution to the racial difference in life expectancy among men (1.17 years) than women (0.08 years). The contribution of HIV/AIDS substantially widened the racial difference among both men (1.08 years) and women (0.42 years) in 1993, but its contribution declined over time. Despite progress observed over the time period studied, a substantial portion of black-white disparities in mortality could be reduced given more equitable access to medical care and health interventions.

The contribution of health policy and care to income differences in life expectancy – a register based cohort study

BackgroundGrowing mortality differences between socioeconomic groups have been reported in both Finland and elsewhere. While health behaviours and other lifestyle factors are important in contributing to health differences, some researchers have suggested that some of the mortality differences attributable to lifestyle factors could be preventable by health policy measures and that health care may play a role. It has also been suggested that its role is increasing due to better results in disease prevention, improved diagnostic tools and treatment methods. This study aimed to assess the impact of mortality amenable to health policy and health care on increasing income disparities in life expectancy in 1996-2007 in Finland.MethodsThe study data were based on an 11% random sample of Finnish residents in 1988–2007 obtained from individually linked cause of death and population registries and an oversample of deaths. We examined differences in life expectancy at age 35 (e35) in Finland. We calculated e35 for periods 1996-97 and 2006-07 by income decile and gender. Differences in life expectancies and change in them between the richest and the poorest deciles were decomposed by cause of death group.ResultsOverall, the difference in e35 between the extreme income deciles was 11.6 years among men and 4.2 years among women in 2006-07. Together, mortality amenable to health policy and care and ischaemic heart disease mortality contributed up to two thirds to socioeconomic differences. Socioeconomic differences increased from 1996-97 by 3.4 years among men and 1.7 years among women. The main contributor to changes was mortality amenable through health policy measures, mainly alcohol related mortality, but also conditions amenable through health care, ischaemic heart disease among men and other diseases contributed to the increase of the differences.ConclusionsThe results underline the importance of active health policy and health care measures in tackling socioeconomic health inequalities.

Left behind: widening disparities for males and females in US county life expectancy, 1985-2010.

BackgroundThe United States spends more than any other country on health care. The poor relative performance of the US compared to other high-income countries has attracted attention and raised questions about the performance of the US health system. An important dimension to poor national performance is the large disparities in life expectancy.MethodsWe applied a mixed effects Poisson statistical model and Gaussian Process Regression to estimate age-specific mortality rates for US counties from 1985 to 2010. We generated uncertainty distributions for life expectancy at each age using standard simulation methods.ResultsFemale life expectancy in the United States increased from 78.0 years in 1985 to 80.9 years in 2010, while male life expectancy increased from 71.0 years in 1985 to 76.3 years in 2010. The gap between female and male life expectancy in the United States was 7.0 years in 1985, narrowing to 4.6 years in 2010. For males at the county level, the highest life expectancy steadily increased from 75.5 in 1985 to 81.7 in 2010, while the lowest life expectancy remained under 65. For females at the county level, the highest life expectancy increased from 81.1 to 85.0, and the lowest life expectancy remained around 73. For male life expectancy at the county level, there have been three phases in the evolution of inequality: a period of rising inequality from 1985 to 1993, a period of stable inequality from 1993 to 2002, and rising inequality from 2002 to 2010. For females, in contrast, inequality has steadily increased during the 25-year period. Compared to only 154 counties where male life expectancy remained stagnant or declined, 1,405 out of 3,143 counties (45%) have seen no significant change or a significant decline in female life expectancy from 1985 to 2010. In all time periods, the lowest county-level life expectancies are seen in the South, the Mississippi basin, West Virginia, Kentucky, and selected counties with large Native American populations.ConclusionsThe reduction in the number of counties where female life expectancy at birth is declining in the most recent period is welcome news. However, the widening disparities between counties and the slow rate of increase compared to other countries should be viewed as a call for action. An increased focus on factors affecting health outcomes, morbidity, and mortality such as socioeconomic factors, difficulty of access to and poor quality of health care, and behavioral, environmental, and metabolic risk factors is urgently required.

Rigorous science as the road to better public health

In the current issue of Population Health Metrics, two reports paint a bleak picture of American public health. Both physical inactivity and obesity remain highly prevalent; yet, it is not clear that increased physical activity will reduce the burden of obesity. There continue to be widespread disparities in life expectancy across United States counties. These reports appear against a backdrop of debate regarding how we should allocate our scarce resources for improving health: should we focus more on improving access to high-quality medical care, or should we instead focus on more and better public health interventions? While optimal solutions remain obscure, a look at prior successes suggests that ultimately they will come from the conduct and implementation of rigorous science, and in particular event-driven trials.