Disease Risk Analysis Research Articles

Streamlining Disease Risk Analysis for Wildlife Using the Shark Bay Bandicoot as a Model.

Disease risk analysis (DRA) is a process for identifying significant disease risks and proposing measures to mitigate those risks. Although numerous methodologies for DRA exist, the IUCN Disease Risk Analysis Manual Jakob-Hoff et al. (World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris, pp 160, 2014) remains the gold standard for wild animal translocations. In some cases, however, constraints of time or resources demand compromises on the ideal methodology, and a cost-benefit assessment is required to determine the best approach. We propose a methodology modified from Jakob-Hoff et al. (World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris, pp 160, 2014) and Sainsbury and Vaughan-Higgins (Conserv Biol 26:442-452, 2012), using translocations of the Shark Bay bandicoot (SBB) (Perameles bougainville) as an example. In this study, 44 hazards were identified and described for Peramelidae species. We used hazard prioritization and "scoping" to develop a shortlist of hazards for detailed risk assessment, which excluded 35 of these hazards from further assessment. This approach enabled timely, efficient and cost-effective completion of the DRA while maintaining transparent evaluation of all disease risks. We developed a disease risk management strategy for SBB based on structured, evidence-based analysis of current information and established biosecurity practices and disease screening recommendations for future translocations. Our approach demonstrates a practical process for DRA and risk mitigation, which delivered management outcomes despite limited resources, variable knowledge of disease epidemiology and uncertain translocation pathways for the target species. Limitations are acknowledged, and further research will aim to objectively test this methodology compared to other available methods.

An Early Disease Prediction and Risk Analysis of Diabetic Mellitus using Electronic Medical Records

In the world today, the fourth leading disease is Diabetes that could lead to other serious complicating diseases. Diabetes is one of the most common chronic disease which can also be the cause of death in many cases. An efficient system for early disease prediction and risk analysis of diabetic mellitus is very much needed as it has the major adverse effects. The large amount of medical data is collected by healthcare industry in the form of Electronic Medical Records. The Electronic Medical Records is communal database for clinical disease and risk prediction that are useful in accurately predicting multiple medical events using machine learning approach. Therefore, this research presents an efficient technique for early prediction and risk analysis of diabetic mellitus disease to improve accuracy and precision using Electronic Medical Records.

Spatiotemporal Distributions of Sheep and Goat Pox Disease Outbreaks in the Period 2013-2019 in Eastern Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

Sheep and goat pox is highly contagious viral infection of sheep and goats caused by the genus Capripox virus. Clinically, the disease is characterized by fever, macules developing into papules, and necrotic lesions in the skin and nodular lesions in internal organs. In Ethiopia, there are seroprevalence epidemiological studies on the disease. However, the spatiotemporal clustering of sheep and goat pox incidence has not been investigated. A retrospective study design using the outbreak reported data from Kombolcha Regional Laboratory for the years from September 2013 to December 2019 was performed to determine the temporal and spatial distribution of sheep and goat pox outbreaks. A total of 663 sheep and goat pox disease outbreaks were reported in all major parts of Eastern Amhara region between 2013 and 2019. In this period, sheep and goat pox was reported in all administrative zones of Eastern Amhara region (n = 5). The average incidence of sheep and goat pox outbreaks at the district level was 8.61 per 7 years. The incidence differed between areas, being the lowest in hot dry month and highest in warm and cold moist months. Sheep and goat pox outbreaks generally have a peak in November followed by August and a low in May. There is a significant difference in the occurrence of sheep and goat pox disease outbreaks between months and years (p < 0.001). The forecast for the period 2020–2026 revealed that a high number of sheep and goat pox disease outbreaks will occur than the previous one. Therefore, all stakeholders should work cooperatively to combat this disease occurrence, and there should be capacity development for participatory disease search, risk analysis, laboratory diagnosis, and information management in order to respond properly to outbreak of sheep and goat pox disease; thereby, it enhances the prevention and control the disease.

Disease risk analysis in sea turtles: A baseline study to inform conservation efforts.

The impact of a range of different threats has resulted in the listing of six out of seven sea turtle species on the IUCN Red List of endangered species. Disease risk analysis (DRA) tools are designed to provide objective, repeatable and documented assessment of the disease risks for a population and measures to reduce these risks through management options. To the best of our knowledge, DRAs have not previously been published for sea turtles, although disease is reported to contribute to sea turtle population decline. Here, a comprehensive list of health hazards is provided for all seven species of sea turtles. The possible risk these hazards pose to the health of sea turtles were assessed and "One Health" aspects of interacting with sea turtles were also investigated. The risk assessment was undertaken in collaboration with more than 30 experts in the field including veterinarians, microbiologists, social scientists, epidemiologists and stakeholders, in the form of two international workshops and one local workshop. The general finding of the DRA was the distinct lack of knowledge regarding a link between the presence of pathogens and diseases manifestation in sea turtles. A higher rate of disease in immunocompromised individuals was repeatedly reported and a possible link between immunosuppression and environmental contaminants as a result of anthropogenic influences was suggested. Society based conservation initiatives and as a result the cultural and social aspect of interacting with sea turtles appeared to need more attention and research. A risk management workshop was carried out to acquire the insights of local policy makers about management options for the risks relevant to Queensland and the options were evaluated considering their feasibility and effectiveness. The sea turtle DRA presented here, is a structured guide for future risk assessments to be used in specific scenarios such as translocation and head-starting programs.

Preventing and mitigating farmed bivalve disease: a Northern Ireland case study

Shellfish production forms a large proportion of marine aquaculture production in Northern Ireland (NI). Diseases represent a serious threat to the maintenance and growth of shellfish cultivation with severe consequences to production output and profitability. In Northern Ireland, production generally benefits from a good health status with the absence of notifiable diseases, except for localised cases of Bonamia ostreae, Marteilia refringens and ostreid herpes virus. In this paper, we qualitatively explore that the prevalence, risk, impact, mitigation and experience shellfish farmers in this region have in relation to disease. Sixteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with stakeholders within the sector. The interviews were transcribed verbatim, and Nvivo 12 was used to facilitate an inductive thematic analysis. Our results highlighted that the industry has varying attitudes and experiences with disease. At present-day temperatures, disease is not an issue and this provides vast market opportunities for the region. However, disease outbreaks have led to detrimental consequences to financial income, production output and reputation in the past, whilst control and mitigation remain reactive. It is imperative proactive disease prevention and control that are employed and enforced to sustain NI’s reputation as a healthy shellfish region, particularly under increasing global temperatures and intensified production systems. A cultural shift to disease appreciation, risk analysis and surveillance through research, education, training and collaboration is essential. This study highlights the importance of providing a bottom-up communication platform with the stakeholders directly involved in shellfish culture and management, the value of cross sector engagement and the need to improve knowledge transfer between science the sector.

Spatial prediction of COVID-19 epidemic using ARIMA techniques in India.

The latest Coronavirus (COVID-19) has become an infectious disease that causes millions of people to infect. Effective short-term prediction models are designed to estimate the number of possible events. The data obtained from 30th January to 26 April, 2020 and from 27th April 2020 to 11th May 2020 as modelling and forecasting samples, respectively. Spatial distribution of disease risk analysis is carried out using weighted overlay analysis in GIS platform. The epidemiologic pattern in the prevalence and incidence of COVID-2019 is forecasted with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We assessed cumulative confirmation cases COVID-19 in Indian states with a high daily incidence in the task of time-series forecasting. Such efficiency metrics such as an index of increasing results, mean absolute error (MAE), and a root mean square error (RMSE) are the out-of-samples for the prediction precision of model. Results shows west and south of Indian district are highly vulnerable for COVID-2019. The accuracy of ARIMA models in forecasting future epidemic of COVID-2019 proved the effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. For more in-depth studies, our analysis may serve as a guide for understanding risk attitudes and social media interactions across countries.

RETROSPECTIVE REVIEW OF MORTALITY IN CAPTIVE PINK PIGEONS (NESOENAS MAYERI) HOUSED IN EUROPEAN COLLECTIONS: 1977-2018.

The Mauritian pink pigeon (Nesoenas mayeri) is vulnerable, with only 400 individuals remaining in the free-living population. A European captive population was established in 1977 and a European Endangered Species Program (EEP) in 1992. The EEP long-term management plan recommends integrating the EEP and free-living Mauritius populations through pigeon transfers. A retrospective mortality review of the captive population was performed as part of a disease risk assessment process and to inform infectious disease screening prior to exporting captive birds to Mauritius. Six hundred pink pigeons from 34 institutions died from 1977 to 2018. Each individual was categorized according to age at time of death. Records from 404 individuals were categorized according to cause of death. Neonatal mortality (39%) and juvenile mortality (10.8%) were most commonly caused by noninfectious diseases (52% and 54.4%, respectively), including parental neglect and failure to thrive in neonates and nutritional secondary hyperparathyroidism in juveniles. Trauma (43.1%) was the most common cause of mortality in adults, with significantly higher mortality in males from interspecific aggression and in females due to intraspecific aggression. Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, Mycobacterium avium, and Escherichia coli were the most common infectious causes of adult mortality, and E. coli was the most common infectious cause in neonates. The following infectious diseases were identified as priorities for pre-export disease risk analysis, though not all caused mortality: Y. pseudotuberculosis, M. avium, Trichomonas spp., Chlamydia psittaci, and Coccidia spp. Husbandry changes have been made over the years to mitigate many of the noninfectious causes of mortality. These include alterations to nest sites to reduce neonatal trauma and abandonment, ultraviolet light supplementation and diet optimization to reduce metabolic disorders, improving enclosure design to reduce impact trauma, allowing females rest periods during breeding season, and avoiding housing with certain species.

Promoter polymorphisms in IL-6 gene influence pro-inflammatory cytokines for the risk of osteoarthritis

BackgroundInterleukin-6 (IL-6) gene regulates IL-6 levels, interplay of which has been found to influence pathophysiology of osteoarthritis (OA). Polymorphism within promoter region of IL-6 gene and its association with plasma levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines; IL-6, interleukin 1-beta (IL-1β) and tumor necrosis factor–alpha (TNF-α) remained to be investigated in Punjab region of India, where OA is highly prevalent. MethodsSix single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the promoter region of IL-6 gene; rs1800795 (−174G/C), rs1800796 (−572G/C), rs1800797 (−597G/A), rs2069827 (−1363G/T), rs12700386 (−2954G/C) and rs10499563 (−6331G/T) were investigated by using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) in 279 confirmed osteoarthritis patients and 287 controls. Plasma levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines; IL-6, IL-1β and TNF-α were measured by sandwich Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). ResultsAllele frequency spectrum after adjusting the effect of systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), total cholesterol (TC), low density lipoprotein (LDL), triglycerides (TG) and body mass index (BMI) revealed that major allele G of rs1800795 and T of rs10499563 were significantly associated with increased risk of OA (P < 0.01) in all the three genetic models; co-dominant (OR 4.08 & 4.12, P < 0.001), recessive (OR 3.00 & 2.51, P < 0.001) and dominant (OR 2.56 & 3.09, P < 0.05). Major allele G of rs1800796 and rs1800797 was observed to enhance OA risk in recessive mode (OR 1.75, P < 0.001 & 1.62, P = 0.01 respectively). Disease risk analysis after adjusting the effect of confounders exposed a susceptibility haplotype GGGGCT, which increased the OA risk by 2.27 times (OR 2.27, 95%CI: 1.26–4.10, P = 0.009) and a protective haplotype CGAGGC which significantly reduced the OA risk (OR 0.47, 95%CI 0.27–0.92, P = 0.031). Both of these haplotypes manifested in the recessive mode of inheritance. Subjects who had one copy of the susceptibility haplotype had lower values of IL-6 (3.6 pg/ml) and IL-1β levels (3.2 pg/ml) than those who had 2 copies of it (4.4 pg/ml & 4.2 pg/ml respectively). IL-6 and IL-1β levels were observed to be negatively associated with protective haplotype CGAGGC (P < 0.05). Carriers of 1 copy of this haplotype showed decreased IL-1β levels than those who had none (1.00 pg/ml vs. 1.3 pg/ml respectively) which further decreased to 0.9 pg/ml in those subjects who carried two copies of protective haplotype. ConclusionThe present study discovered susceptibility (GGGGCT) and protective (CGAGGC) haplotypes within promoter region of IL-6 gene which influenced the plasma levels of IL-6 and IL-1β for the risk of osteoarthritis in the population of Punjab, India.

State-of-the-Art Techniques in Optic Cup and Disc Localization for Glaucoma Diagnosis: Research Results and Issues.

Glaucoma is a heterogeneous group of diseases that are characterized by loss of retinal ganglion cells, which damages the optic nerve head (ONH) and visual field. If glaucoma, the most frequent cause of irretrievable vision loss, is detected at an initial stage, the rate of blindness may be reduced by nearly 50%-55%. Manual diagnosis is a laborious task; it is fairly time consuming and requires a skilled medical provider. With the lack of trained professionals in developing countries, automatic glaucoma diagnosis becomes an increasingly vital tool that aids in detection and disease risk analysis. Analyses of the optic disc (OD) and optic cup (OC) are normally performed to assess ONH damage. But of the numerous reported research reports that show results using machine-learning and image-processing approaches, major concern lies in the accuracy of segmenting and classifying OD and OC. The objective of the current study is to outline state-of-the-art image-processing techniques that are used to detect glaucoma early via segmenting and OD and OC classification. We also present research findings and limitations thereof that must be addressed to achieve higher accuracy to improve segmentation and classification quality.

Aquatic Disease Risk Analysis: Applications for the Conservation and Management of Freshwater Mollusks

Aquatic Disease Risk Analysis: Applications for the Conservation and Management of Freshwater Mollusks

Risks from disease caused by Mycobacterium orygis as a consequence of Greater one-horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) translocation in Nepal.

The greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) is listed as vulnerable by the IUCN Red List. Mycobacterium orygis-associated disease was identified in a single greater one-horned rhino in Chitwan National Park in February 2015 prior to a planned translocation of five greater one-horned rhinoceros from Chitwan National Park to Bardia National Park for conservation purposes. This paper describes a qualitative disease risk analysis conducted retrospectively post-translocation for Mycobacterium orygis and this translocation, with the aim to improve the understanding of disease threats to the conservation of greater one-horned rhino. The disease risk analysis method used was devised by Sainsbury & Vaughan-Higgins (Conservation Biology, 26, 2017, 442) with modifications by Bobadilla Suarez et al (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 1) and Rideout et al (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 42) and included the use of a scenario tree and an analysis of uncertainty as recommended by Murray et al. (Handbook on import risk analysis for animals and animal products. Volume 1. Introduction and qualitative risk analysis, 2004), and the first time this combination of methods has been used to assess the risk from disease in a conservation translocation. The scenario tree and analysis of uncertainty increased the clarity and transparency of the analysis. Rideout et al.'s (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 42) criteria were used to assess the source hazard and may be useful in comparative assessment of source hazards for future conservation translocations. The likelihood of release into the destination site of Mycobacterium orygis as a source hazard was estimated as of low risk, the risk of exposure of populations at the destination was of high risk and the likelihood of biological and environmental consequences was low. Overall, the risk from disease associated with Mycobacterium orygis as a result of this translocation was found to be low. Recommendations on disease risk management strategies could be improved with a better understanding of the epidemiology including the presence/absence of Mycobacterium orygis in greater one-horned rhino to develop effective disease risk management strategies.

Reintroducing beavers Castor fiber to Britain: a disease risk analysis

Abstract Eurasian beavers Castor fiber are potential hosts for a range of infectious diseases and parasites, including those typical of common European rodents. A number of infectious organisms are potentially zoonotic and may be notifiable under animal health legislation. The official trial beaver reintroductions to Scotland, the retrospectively licensed releases in England, and the increasingly obvious presence of large numbers of unlicensed illegally released animals have highlighted potential disease risks. We aimed to conduct a disease risk analysis, based on peer reviewed publications, for selection and health screening of Eurasian beavers prior to release into the wild in Britain. Adapted from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s ‘Guidelines for Disease Risk Analysis’, a four‐step process was used to formulate a disease risk analysis: 1) problem description; 2) hazard identification based on literature review; 3) risk assessment, which resulted in categorisation of pathogens into low, medium, and high risk; and 4) risk management: identification of mitigating measures, followed by risk re‐evaluation in light of the reported effectiveness of the mitigation measures. The highest‐risk pathogens identified in the literature review process included: parasites, specifically Cryptosporidium parvum, Echinococcus multilocularis, Eimeria spp., Fasciola hepatica, Giardia spp., Trichinella britovi; bacteria, specifically Escherichia coli, Franciscella tularensis, Mycobacterium avium, Salmonella spp., Yersinia spp.; a fungus Chrysosporium parvum (Emmonsia parva); and terrestrial rabies virus. Most could be mitigated by sourcing beavers from Britain. The rest could be mitigated by pre‐release testing procedures that are already established. The risk of introducing significant disease to humans, domestic animals, or wildlife by releasing into the wild in Britain a beaver that was captive‐bred in Britain or a wild beaver from Scotland, based on the current evidence of disease incidence, and assuming the use of robust, peer reviewed, pre‐release health screening techniques, can be viewed as low.

The Hurdle Approach-A Holistic Concept for Controlling Food Safety Risks Associated With Pathogenic Bacterial Contamination of Leafy Green Vegetables. A Review.

Consumers appreciate leafy green vegetables such as baby leaves for their convenience and wholesomeness and for adding a variety of tastes and colors to their plate. In Western cuisine, leafy green vegetables are usually eaten fresh and raw, with no step in the long chain from seed to consumption where potentially harmful microorganisms could be completely eliminated, e.g., through heating. A concerning trend in recent years is disease outbreaks caused by various leafy vegetable crops and one of the most important foodborne pathogens in this context is Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC). Other pathogens such as Salmonella, Shigella, Yersinia enterocolitica and Listeria monocytogenes should also be considered in disease risk analysis, as they have been implicated in outbreaks associated with leafy greens. These pathogens may enter the horticultural value network during primary production in field or greenhouse via irrigation, at harvest, during processing and distribution or in the home kitchen/restaurant. The hurdle approach involves combining several mitigating approaches, each of which is insufficient on its own, to control or even eliminate pathogens in food products. Since the food chain system for leafy green vegetables contains no absolute kill step for pathogens, use of hurdles at critical points could enable control of pathogens that pose a human health risk. Hurdles should be combined so as to decrease the risk due to pathogenic microbes and also to improve microbial stability, shelf-life, nutritional properties and sensory quality of leafy vegetables. The hurdle toolbox includes different options, such as physical, physiochemical and microbial hurdles. The goal for leafy green vegetables is multi-target preservation through intelligently applied hurdles. This review describes hurdles that could be used for leafy green vegetables and their biological basis, and identifies prospective hurdles that need attention in future research.

Infectious Disease Risk and Vaccination in Northern Syria after 5 Years of Civil War: The MSF Experience.

Introduction:In 2015, following an influx of population into Kobanê in northern Syria, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in collaboration with the Kobanê Health Administration (KHA) initiated primary healthcare activities. A vaccination coverage survey and vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) risk analysis were undertaken to clarify the VPD risk and vaccination needs. This was followed by a measles Supplementary Immunization Activity (SIA). We describe the methods and results used for this prioritisation activity around vaccination in Kobanê in 2015.Methods:We implemented a pre-SIA survey in 135 randomly-selected households in Kobanê using a vaccination history questionnaire for all children <5 years. We conducted a VPD Risk Analysis using MSF ‘Preventive Vaccination in Humanitarian Emergencies’ guidance to prioritize antigens with the highest public health threat for mass vaccination activities. A Measles SIA was then implemented and followed by vaccine coverage survey in 282 randomly-selected households targeting children <5 years.Results:The pre-SIA survey showed that 168/212 children (79.3%; 95%CI=72.7-84.6%) had received one vaccine or more in their lifetime. Forty-three children (20.3%; 95%CI: 15.1-26.6%) had received all vaccines due by their age; only one was <12 months old and this child had received all vaccinations outside of Syria. The VPD Risk Analysis prioritised measles, Haemophilus Influenza type B (Hib) and Pneumococcus vaccinations. In the measles SIA, 3410 children aged 6-59 months were vaccinated. The use of multiple small vaccination sites to reduce risks associated with crowds in this active conflict setting was noted as a lesson learnt. The post-SIA survey estimated 82% (95%CI: 76.9-85.9%; n=229/280) measles vaccination coverage in children 6-59 months.Discussion:As a result of the conflict in Syria, the progressive collapse of the health care system in Kobanê has resulted in low vaccine coverage rates, particularly in younger age groups. The repeated displacements of the population, attacks on health institutions and exodus of healthcare workers, challenge the resumption of routine immunization in this conflict setting and limit the use of SIAs to ensure sustainable immunity to VPDs. We have shown that the risk for several VPDs in Kobanê remains high.Conclusion:We call on all health actors and the international community to work towards re-establishment of routine immunisation activities as a priority to ensure that children who have had no access to vaccination in the last five years are adequately protected for VPDs as soon as possible.

Parkinson's disease susceptibility variants and severity of Lewy body pathology

IntroductionMeta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have established common genetic risk factors for clinical Parkinson's disease (PD); however, associations between these risk factors and quantitative neuropathologic markers of disease severity have not been well-studied. This study evaluated associations of nominated variants from the most recent PD GWAS meta-analysis with Lewy body disease (LBD) subtype (brainstem, transitional, or diffuse) and pathologic burden of LB pathology as measured by LB counts in five cortical regions in a series of LBD cases. Methods547 autopsy-confirmed cases of LBD were included and genotyped for 29 different GWAS-nominated PD risk variants. LB counts were measured in middle frontal (MF), superior temporal (ST), inferior parietal (IP), cingulate (CG), and parahippocampal (PH) gyri. ResultsNone of the variants examined were significantly associated with LB counts in any brain region or with LBD subtype after correcting for multiple testing. Nominally significant (P < 0.05) associations with LB counts where the direction of association was in agreement with that observed in the PD GWAS meta-analysis were observed for variants in BCKDK/STX1B (MF, ST, IP) and SNCA (ST). Additionally, MIR4697 and BCKDK/STX1B variants were nominally associated with LBD subtype. ConclusionThe lack of a significant association between PD GWAS variants and severity of LB pathology is consistent with the generally subtle association odds ratios that have been observed in disease-risk analysis. These results also suggest that genetic factors other than the susceptibility loci may determine quantitative neuropathologic outcomes in patients with LBD.

My week: Jenny Jaffe.

Jenny Jaffe is a veterinarian who works on disease risk analysis and health surveillance at the Zoological Society of London. Here, she describes a recent week.

Infectious Disease Surveillance in the Woylie (Bettongia penicillata).

Wild populations of the critically endangered woylie (Bettongia penicillata) recently declined by 90% in southwest Western Australia. Increased predation is the leading hypothesis for decline, but disease may be playing a role increasing susceptibility to predation. To explore this possibility, we surveyed woylie populations in the wild, in captivity and in a predator-free sanctuary for exposure to, and infection with, four known pathogens of macropods: herpesviruses, Wallal and Warrego orbiviruses, and Toxoplasma gondii. Our study found two of 68 individuals positive for neutralizing antibodies against known macropodid alphaherpesviruses. Three of 45 individuals were PCR positive for a herpesvirus that was shown to be a novel gammaherpesvirus or a new strain/variant of Potoroid Herpesvirus 1. Further sequence information is required to definitively determine its correct classification. There was no evidence of antibodies to orbivirus Wallal and Warrego serogroups, and all serological samples tested for T. gondii were negative. This is the first report of PCR and serological detection of herpesviruses in the woylie. Positive individuals did not demonstrate clinical signs of herpesviral diseases; therefore, the clinical significance of herpesviruses to wild woylie populations remains unclear. Further monitoring for herpesvirus infections will be important to inform disease risk analysis for this virus and determine temporal trends in herpesvirus activity that may relate to population health and conservation outcomes.

WVI and the Pine Marten Recovery Project

Wildlife Vets International has been involved with a project in the UK, helping with disease risk analysis and health checks for the Pine Marten Recovery Project, which is restoring pine marten populations in Wales.

Quantification of Trypanosoma evansi parasitic load in experimentally infected mice using real time PCR assay and its comparative evaluation with conventional parasitological techniques

Trypanosoma evansi causes an economically important disease called surra, which is responsible for significant losses to livestock productivity in Asia, Africa, Central and South America. In the present study, a SYBR Green based quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay was optimized using primers targeting the internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS–1) region of rRNA gene for quantitative estimation of T. evansi infection in experimentally infected mice. The sensitivity of qPCR assay was found approximate to the gold standard TBR1/2 primers based PCR assay and two times more than the conventional parasitological techniques, viz. wet blood film (WBF) stained thin blood smear (TBS) and microhaematocrit centrifugation test (MHCT). The detection limit of the assay was 1.5 parasite equivalence or 0.15 pg T. evansi DNA. On fourth day post infection, 100% (6/6) mice were detected positive by all parasitological techniques with parasitaemia ranging from 1.6×105 to 2.1×108 parasites. The study indicated that this assay can be applied for quantitative estimation of parasitaemia in animals suffering from surra and may be helpful for understanding disease status, risk analysis and efficacy of drug used in treatment of disease.

A Comparison of Disease Risk Analysis Tools for Conservation Translocations

Conservation translocations are increasingly used to manage threatened species and restore ecosystems. Translocations increase the risk of disease outbreaks in the translocated and recipient populations. Qualitative disease risk analyses have been used as a means of assessing the magnitude of any effect of disease and the probability of the disease occurring associated with a translocation. Currently multiple alternative qualitative disease risk analysis packages are available to practitioners. Here we compare the ease of use, expertise required, transparency, and results from, three different qualitative disease risk analyses using a translocation of the endangered New Zealand passerine, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), as a model. We show that the three methods use fundamentally different approaches to define hazards. Different methods are used to produce estimations of the risk from disease, and the estimations are different for the same hazards. Transparency of the process varies between methods from no referencing, or explanations of evidence to justify decisions, through to full documentation of resources, decisions and assumptions made. Evidence to support decisions on estimation of risk from disease is important, to enable knowledge acquired in the future, for example, from translocation outcome, to be used to improve the risk estimation for future translocations. Information documenting each disease risk analysis differs along with variation in emphasis of the questions asked within each package. The expertise required to commence a disease risk analysis varies and an action flow chart tailored for the non-wildlife health specialist are included in one method but completion of the disease risk analysis requires wildlife health specialists with epidemiological and pathological knowledge in all three methods. We show that disease risk analysis package choice may play a greater role in the overall risk estimation of the effect of disease on animal populations involved in a translocation than might previously have been realised.