Background: Dapagliflozin, approved in the treatment of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), has demonstrated attenuation of CKD progression and a reduced risk of cardio-renal outcomes and all-cause mortality (ACM) versus placebo, in addition to standard of care (SoC). The aim of this economic evaluation was to assess the potential medical care cost offsets associated with reduced rates of cardio-renal outcomes in Italy. Methods: A comparative micro-simulation model estimated the outcome-related costs of dapagliflozin plus SoC versus SoC alone over a 3-year horizon based on the DAPA-CKD trial. Incidence rates of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), hospitalizations for heart failure (hHF), acute kidney injury (AKI) and ACM were estimated for a treated population of 90,564 patients. Associated direct medical costs for non-fatal events (ESKD, hHF and AKI) were calculated using available literature and national tariffs. The analysis was restricted to outcome-associated costs and did not consider the cost of drug treatments and disease management. Results: Patients treated with dapagliflozin plus SoC experienced fewer incident events of ESKD (6,540 vs 9,751), hHF (2,146 vs 4,242), AKI (3,772 vs. 5,271) and ACM (5,780 vs 8,037) per 90,564 treated patients versus those treated with SoC alone. Reductions (–35,6%) in clinical events (ESKD, hHF and AKI) were associated with a 34.4% reduction in total costs (€ 170 million) over 3 years. The clinical effect of dapagliflozin on ESKD management accounted for a € 134.5 million reduction in total costs. Conclusion: Based on the DAPA-CKD trial, dapagliflozin may prevent cardio-renal event incidence with a positive effect upon the Italian National Healthcare Service (NHS). Over three years, we estimated that dapagliflozin can reduce the Italian NHS expenditure associated with the management of ESKD, hHF and AKI events by 34.4% (€ 170 million).
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