Discouraged Worker Effect Research Articles

Evidence of the added-worker and discouraged-worker effects in Australia

Gross flow data for workers moving between the states of employment, unemployment and non-participation in Australia can be used to analyse the likelihood of workers transitioning between the three states in different phases of the business cycle. We use correlation analysis and a SVAR model to determine the cyclicality of state transition rates and use these results to characterise labour force inflows and outflows as being consistent in aggregate with either the discouraged-worker effect (DWE) or the added-worker effect (AWE). We find evidence that the AWE is dominant in transitions in both directions between unemployment and non-participation which contributes to a rise in unemployment during economic contractions. We also find that the DWE is dominant in transitions from non-participation to employment and that this drives the overall result that non-participation rises during a contraction. This means that the overall participation rate is procyclical. It is important to understand the cyclical influences on labour force participation and its interaction with unemployment before framing policy responses which seek to reduce labour market slack.

The impact of easy and early access to old-age benefits on exits from the labour market: a macro-micro analysis

We examine whether easy and early access to old-age benefits induce older workers to become inactive. We use Polish LFS data. We find added worker effect prevailing over discouraged worker effect. The latter arises after a few quarters and is asymmetric. Females permanently leave the workforce. More males leave the workforce in contractions than re-enter in expansions. If old-age benefit becomes the main source of income, the worker (after 1 year) is 8 to 20 times more likely to exit the market than unemployment or social welfare beneficiaries. Our findings support higher retirement age—the age when workers become eligible for old-age benefits. JEL classification: J14, J22

Discouraged or added worker effect: Which one prevails in the Polish labour market?

We test whether the discouraged worker or added worker effect prevails in the Polish labour market. The discouraged worker effect implies that the participation rate is procyclical with respect to the GDP and countercyclical with respect to the unemployment rate. The added worker effect yields contrary findings. We analyse the period 1994–2014 with quarterly data. We focus on the working age population, both males and females. We apply a range of methods to obtain robust results, some of which have never been employed to resolve this problem. They include ad hoc filtration, spectral analysis, unobserved component model, time-varying parameter model, and frequency domain regression. The results indicate that the added worker effect prevails in most of the business cycle frequencies. It is significant and varies over time. It is true for both males and females. It is considerably stronger in contractions than in expansions. In low business cycle frequencies, the discouraged worker effect prevails. Although the last case is rare, it proves the heterogeneity of labour force behaviour over the business cycle.

The 'Discouraged Worker Effect' in Public Works Programs: Evidence from the MGNREGA in India

This study investigates the consequences of poor implementation in public workfare programs, focusing on the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) in India. Using nationally representative data, we test empirically for a discouraged worker effect arising from either of two mechanisms: administrative rationing of jobs among those who seek work and delays in wage payments. We find strong evidence at the household and district levels that administrative rationing discourages subsequent demand for work. Delayed wage payments seem to matter significantly during rainfall shocks. We find further that rationing is strongly associated with indicators of implementation ability such as staff capacity. Politics appears to play only a limited role. The findings suggest that assessments of the relevance of public programs over their lifecycle need to factor in implementation quality.

Economic Development, Women Empowerment and U Shaped Labour Force Function : Time Series Evidence for Bangladesh

This paper supports the validity of nonlinear quadratic U shaped function between female labor force participation rate and Economic Growth for Bangladesh over the period 1991 -2012. The result is robust when growth of per capita energy consumption is considered as a proxy indicator of economic development. In Bangladesh the rising portion of U curve is explained by women’s active participation in manufacturing and service sector. Women are still economically active in the Agricultural sector of the economy. Added worker effect dominates discouraged worker effect. Women join the labor force regardless their marital status. Female labor force participation has positive impact on economic growth.

Unemployment in Africa

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish the concept of unemployment defined by the International Labour Organisation appears to be too narrow within the context of many African countries including Ghana. This phenomenon tends to put many jobless adults into the discouraged worker category thereby giving a misleading picture about the unemployment situation in these countries. In addition, the structure of the labour market in many African countries is such that informality takes the face of unemployment. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a scatter plot and simple correlation analysis to show a trade-off between informality or vulnerability of employment and unemployment rates in Africa. The paper also adopts descriptive approach based on simple diagrams to show the extent of discouraged worker effect on the phenomenon of unemployment. Findings – The paper finds a significantly negative correlation between unemployment and informality in Africa. Beside the high level of informality that hides the face of unemployment, the exclusion of many discouraged workers in estimating unemployment underrates the seriousness of the phenomenon. The paper therefore recommends the adoption of a broader definition of unemployment that accounts for discourage workers and underemployment to show the true picture of labour market challenge in Africa. Additionally, targeted programmes to support and transform the informal sector is required to make it a more attractive means of employment rather than being seen as a refuge point for the unemployed in Africa. Originality/value – The observation that unemployment should be looked at from a broader perspective that accounts for discourage workers to inform policy design forms a base of the paper’s contribution to the body of literature. In addition, the high level of informality that hides the problem of unemployment shows that labour market challenges should not be restricted to unemployment but low quality of employment that characterises informality as well.

Gender Differences in Labor Force Participation Rates in Spain and Italy under the Great Recession.

This article analyzes gender differences in the decision to participate in the labor market under the economic crisis that derive from differences in women’s position in the job structure, the family and the welfare economy. In order to test the behavior of male and female labor supply in Spain and Italy, we estimate labor supply models for women and men living in couples. The results show a strong countercyclical added-worker effect for women, in contrast with a procyclical discouraged-worker effect for men. Though the added-worker effect prevails for women in Spain, in Italy the discouraged worker effect dominates.

Discouraged vs. added workers: Variation by gender, age, and marital status

This paper analyzes the relationship between aggregate unemployment and the labor force participation of males and females of differing ages and marital circumstances. According to the discouraged-worker effect, a higher unemployment rate causes some workers to leave the labor force leading to a reduction in both the labor-force participation rate and the unemployment rate. To shed light on this statistical incongruity, a unique data set consisting of monthly observations from the Current Population Survey is used to extract the labor force participation rates of males and females of three different age categories and three different marital classifications. Impulse functions from vector error-correction models indicate that discouraged workers are more likely though not exclusively to consist of married males and females between 50 and 65 years of age. No statistically significant evidence of a net added-worker effect is found among married females or males in any age group.

Young people living as couples: How women's labour supply is adapting to the crisis. Spain as a case study

In this paper, we focus on the effects of the Great Recession on the decisions of young women regarding their labour supply. Considering the profound effect of the economic recession on the Spanish labour market, and in particular on the labour supply of young people, the focus of the empirical part of this paper is on Spain. Using EU-SILC 2007 and 2012 micro data for Spain, the labour supply models of women are estimated by age group, with a particular focus on the 20 to 29 and 30 to 39 age bands, in order to establish how young women living in couples exhibit different labour supply propensities according to their partner's labour market status. Correction is made for the non-random selection of women living in couples in the younger age groups. This first analytical step reveals a negative effect on the likelihood of forming a new household in the context of precarious employment conditions. Analytical results regarding the labour supply of women by age group confirmed a discouraging effect of young children on the labour supply of the youngest mothers, as well as a positive effect from being the owner of a house purchased under mortgage.The literature shows that different effects can be at work within the crisis: an added worker effect (AWE), which is countercyclical labour supply behaviour involving an increase in individual labour supply in response to transitory shocks in the partner's earnings, and a procyclical discouraged worker effect. The resulting estimations of the present study suggest an AWE in 2012 for young women living in couples. While in 2012 the discouragement effect was only prevalent for women over 40, in 2007 it was also prevalent among younger women. Women's higher propensity to enter the labour market when their partner becomes unemployed or is persistently unemployed, coupled with their likelihood to be inactive in the presence of young children, would suggest a need for labour market policies targeted towards young women. Childcare facilities could mitigate the latter effect and produce a more continuous work profile, avoiding the negative effects of work experience interruptions on labour supply during the female lifecycle.

Labor-Force Participation of Married Women in Turkey: A Study of the Added-Worker Effect and the Discouraged-Worker Effect

ABSTRACTWe analyze married women’s labor-supply responses to their husbands’ job loss (added-worker effect) and worsening of unemployment conditions (discouraged-worker effect). We construct six two-year pseudopanels based on the previous year’s labor market outcomes using nationally representative Turkish Household Labor Force Surveys from 2005 to 2010. We find that women whose husbands involuntarily transition from employment to unemployment are more likely to participate in the labor force. We pool the six-year pseudopanels and examine the effects of aggregate employment conditions on wives’ transition to the labor force. A worsening of unemployment conditions has a small discouraging effect on wives’ labor-supply responses.

Impacts of the Availability of Old-Age Benefits on Exits from the Labour Market

Given human longevity, fertility, health and social developments, workers become inactive relatively early throughout Europe. This partially stems from older workers being pushed out of the labour market and from personal motivation to prefer benefits to wages. We focus on this latter effect and analyse whether workers would have stayed active had they not been tempted by the availability of the old-age benefits. We focus on Poland, a country severely experiencing the problem of population ageing. In 2013 persons 50+ accounted for 37% of the total population. Although they enjoy a relatively low unemployment rate, their participation and employment rates are very low: 34% and 32%, respectively. We analyse whether this is due to the discouraged worker effect.We identify the cyclical properties of activity and discouraged worker rates, and estimate a set of logistic regressions to identify the determinants of the exits from the labour market. Cyclical analysis indicates that the added worker effect prevails over the discouraged worker effect. The discouraged worker effect appears with a delay of a few quarters. The process is asymmetric for females. Workers often permanently leave the market. The availability of old-age benefits increases the probability of outflow from unemployment to inactivity, as do unemployment rate changes. If old-age benefits become the main source of income for the worker within the 1 year interval, they are 8 to 20 times more likely to leave the workforce compared to those who receive either unemployment benefits or social welfare benefits.

Discouraged workers in developed countries and added workers in developing countries? Unemployment rate and labour force participation

Changes in the unemployment rate can have differing impacts on the labour force participation rate depending on the strength of the added worker effect and the discouraged worker effect. This paper documents the differences in the relationship between the unemployment rate and the labour force participation rate across a panel of developing countries and OECD countries. We employ a system GMM approach to control for and to establish the bi-directional causality between unemployment and labour force participation. We find that the discouraged worker effect does dominate in developed countries, while dominance of the added worker effect in developing countries leads to an increase in labour force in the face of rising unemployment.

Unemployment and labour force participation in Japan

This article studies a long-run relationship between the labour-force participation rate and the unemployment rate in Japan. By using cointegration analysis, we demonstrate that there exists a long-run relationship between the two variables for male workers but not for female workers. Furthermore, using labour-force data by age group, we find the added-worker effect for young males and the discouraged-worker effect for middle-aged and old male groups.

Labor force participation and the discouraged worker effect

This article analyzes labor force participation with particular reference to the discouraged worker effect. Discouraged workers are those who will search for work when the labor market is tight but do not search for work when the labor market is slack because they consider their chances of finding a suitable job too low. The theoretical point of departure is a search model where the worker evaluates the expected utility of searching for work and decides to participate in the labor market if the expected utility of search exceeds the utility of not working. From this framework, we derive an empirical model for the probability that the worker will be out of the labor force, unemployed, or employed. The model is estimated on a sample of married and cohabitating women in Norway covering the period from 1988 to 2008. The results show that the discouraged worker effect is substantial. On average, about one-third of those who are out of the labor force are discouraged, according to our analysis.

Labor Force Participation of Married Women in Turkey: Is There an Added or a Discouraged Worker Effect?

This article analyzes married women's labor supply responses to their husbands' job loss (added worker effect) and worsening of unemployment conditions (discouraged worker effect). We find that married women whose husbands are unemployed or underemployed are more likely to participate in the labor force and work more hours using yearly cross-sectional data from Turkey for the 2000-2010 period. We also construct two year panels based on questions on previous year's labor market outcomes. Panel results provide further support for the added worker effect. Wives whose husbands experience a job loss are more likely to increase their labor force participation. However, a worsening of overall unemployment conditions appears to have a discouraging effect on wives' labor supply response, wives tend to decrease their labor participation when unemployment rate in their region increases.

Exploring the big jump in the Spanish unemployment rate: Evidence on an ‘added-worker’ effect

Spain is destroying more jobs than any other European country. In the third quarter of 2009, the unemployment rate stood at 17.9%, the second-highest rate in the 27-nation EU and the highest rate in the euro area (EA-16). The exponential growth of the Spanish unemployment rate is the by-product of falling employment rates. However, there is a second explanation which is often overlooked by unemployment forecasters: changes in labour force participation rates. On the one hand, in times of recession participation rates tend to increase in order to safeguard sustainable household incomes. This phenomenon is known as the ‘added-worker’ effect. On the other hand, there is also an opposite effect in that individuals leave the labour force in recessions because chances to find employment are low. This is the ‘discouraged-worker’ effect. Applying a threshold cointegration model to Spanish quarterly data over the period 1976–2008, we find that the added-worker effect dominates the discouraged-worker effect, but only when unemployment is below 11.7%. Above this threshold, the two effects cancel each other out so that the participation rate is not influenced by further deteriorations of economic conditions. Since Spain recently passed the 11.7% unemployment threshold, our model predicts that there will be no further increases in the participation rate in the near future.

Determinants of regional female labour market participation in the Netherlands

The paper analyses the determinants of female labour participation. Structural equation modelling is used to handle theoretical concepts and to solve the typical problem of multicollinearity. The proposed methodology is applied to a dataset for the year 2002 made up of a sample of 278 municipalities in the Netherlands. The structural model and measurement model of the latent variables are estimated simultaneously by means of maximum likelihood. Model estimation and tests are performed using LISREL. Female participation is found to be positively influenced by the added-worker effect and negatively by the discouraged worker effect. The results show a negative impact of demographic pressure and a positive impact of socio-economic status and female-dominated sector structure.

Variable Search Intensity with Coordination Unemployment

This paper analyzes an urn-ball matching model in which workers decide how intensively they sample job openings and apply at a stochastic number of suitable vacancies. The model allows for tractable equilibrium characterization with a continuous search intensity margin. Equilibrium is not constrained efficient; entry is excessive, search intensity can be too high or too low, and an inefficient discouraged-worker effect among homogenous workers emerges under adverse labor market conditions. Unlike existing coordination-friction economies with fixed search intensity, the model can account for the empirical relation between the job-finding rate and the vacancy-unemployment ratio, provided that search costs are small and that search intensity is sufficiently procyclical.

The Added Worker Effect and the Discouraged Worker Effect for Married Women in Australia

This paper investigates both the added worker effect (the labour supply responses of women to their partners’ job losses) and the discouraged worker effect (workers withdrawing from the labour market because of failed searches) for married women in Australia, with the emphasis on the former. We focus on the partners’ involuntary job loss experiences, and analyse women’s labour market activities in the periods before and after their partners’ job loss.

Discouragement Amongst Ageing Workers in Malta within an EU Context

This paper investigates perceptions of unemployed ageing workers in Malta, in relation to disadvantages in the labour market and to discouragement with regard to chances of finding stable employment. The principal results are that educational level and number of breadwinners in one's household significantly affect perceptions; and that there are cases manifesting the 'discouraged worker effect', even though they are still registering to find employment. This challenges traditional views arguing that this effect is present only among individuals who already gave up the job search completely. This paper concludes that the struggle for productive employment requires mass representation of trade unions, which, in turn, require the construction of alliances to widen their appeal.