Discounted Quality Adjusted Life Years Research Articles

Cascade genetic testing (CGT) female first-degree relatives (FDR) of men with germline BRCA2 mutations (gBRCA2mut) and prostate cancer (PCa): A cost-effectiveness analysis.

e17099 Background: g BRCA2mut are associated with increased risk of PCa, breast cancer (BC), and ovarian cancer (OC). ~5% of men with metastatic PCa have g BRCA2mut. CGT is recommended for their relatives as there are implications for cancer prevention and early detection strategies. Little is known about CGT initiated by men with PCa. Here we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CGT in FDR of men with PCa and g BRCA2mut. Methods: A decision-analytic model was created with TreeAge software to compare BC and OC outcomes for female FDRs who underwent CGT for g BRCA2mut versus no CGT. Our theoretical cohort contained 100,000 females, a conservative estimate of patients who could benefit from CGT. We used literature derived estimates to determine the percentage of patients that would pursue risk-reducing mastectomy, risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy, both surgeries, or surveillance after CGT. Outcomes included BC or OC diagnoses, survivorship, and cancer death. We derived all probabilities, costs, utilities, and life expectancies from the literature and discounted quality adjusted life years (QALYs) at a rate of 3%. Incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER) was calculated to determine the cost per QALY gained and set the willingness-to-pay threshold at $100,000/QALY. We assessed the robustness of the model with sensitivity analyses. Results: In our theoretical cohort, CGT of female FDRs resulted in 12,910 less BC diagnoses and 6,360 less BC deaths. CGT was associated with lower BC death rates (26.1%) compared to no CGT (35.8%). OC survival rates were higher with CGT (73.1%) compared to no CGT (36.4%). Our model resulted in lower costs and higher QALYs (a dominant strategy) among the CGT cohort with an ICER of -$7,211.40 per QALY, saving an estimated $595 million. We found that CGT in females was the dominant strategy in 100% of the samples, once uncertainty was incorporated into our model inputs via Monte Carlo simulation. The cost-effectiveness of CGT for male FDRs will be presented at the meeting. Conclusions: In this study, CGT of female FDRs of men with PCa and g BRCA2mut was the dominant strategy to improve BC and OC outcomes, including increased survivorship and reduced BC and OC development. CGT was associated with reduced costs and increased QALYs. CGT for female FDRs of patients with PCa and g BRCA2mut may be a cost-effective approach for identifying and informing individuals with potentially harmful mutations. [Table: see text]

Cascade genetic testing (CGT) female first-degree relatives (FDR) of men with germline BRCA2 mutations (gBRCA2mut) and prostate cancer (PCa): A cost-effectiveness analysis.

110 Background: g BRCA2mut are associated with increased risk of PCa, breast cancer (BC), and ovarian cancer (OC). ~5% of men with metastatic PCa have g BRCA2mut. CGT is recommended for their relatives as there are implications for cancer prevention and early detection strategies. Little is known about CGT initiated by men with PCa. Here we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CGT in FDR of men with PCa and g BRCA2mut. Methods: A decision-analytic model was created with TreeAge software to compare BC and OC outcomes for female FDRs who underwent CGT for g BRCA2mut versus no CGT. Our theoretical cohort contained 100,000 females, a conservative estimate of patients who could benefit from CGT. We used literature derived estimates to determine the percentage of patients that would pursue risk-reducing mastectomy, risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy, both surgeries, or surveillance after CGT. Outcomes included BC or OC diagnoses, survivorship, and cancer death. We derived all probabilities, costs, utilities, and life expectancies from the literature and discounted quality adjusted life years (QALYs) at a rate of 3%. Incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER) was calculated to determine the cost per QALY gained and set the willingness-to-pay threshold at $100,000/QALY. We assessed the robustness of the model with sensitivity analyses. Results: In our theoretical cohort, CGT of female FDRs resulted in 12,910 less BC diagnoses and 6,360 less BC deaths. CGT was associated with lower BC death rates (26.1%) compared to no CGT (35.8%). CGT was not associated with reduction in OC diagnoses or deaths. Our model resulted in lower costs and higher QALYs (a dominant strategy) among the CGT cohort with an ICER of -$4,190.10 per QALY, saving an estimated $595 million. We found that CGT in females was the dominant strategy in 100% of the samples, once uncertainty was incorporated into our model inputs via Monte Carlo simulation. The cost-effectiveness of CGT for male FDRs will be presented at the meeting. Conclusions: In this study, CGT of female FDRs of men with PCa and g BRCA2mut was the dominant strategy to improve BC outcomes, including increased survivorship and reduced BC development. Despite a lack of demonstrated benefit for OC, CGT was associated with reduced costs and increased QALYs. CGT for female FDRs of patients with PCa and g BRCA2mut may be a cost-effective approach for identifying and informing individuals with potentially harmful mutations. [Table: see text]

Evaluation of benefits and harms of adaptive screening schedules for lung cancer: A microsimulation study.

BackgroundAlthough lung cancer screening (LCS) has been proven effective in reducing lung cancer mortality, it is associated with some potential harms, such as false positives and invasive follow-up procedures. Determining the time to next screen based on individual risk could reduce harms while maintaining health gains. Here, we evaluate the benefits and harms of LCS strategies with adaptive schedules, and compare these with those from non-adaptive strategies.MethodsWe extended the Lee and Zelen risk threshold method to select screening schedules based on individual's lung cancer risk and life expectancy (adaptive schedules). We compared the health benefits and harms of these adaptive schedules with regular (non-adaptive) schedules (annual, biennial and triennial) using a validated lung cancer microsimulation model. Outcomes include lung cancer deaths (LCD) averted, life years gained (LYG), discounted quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and false positives per LCD averted. We also explored the impact of varying screening-related disutilities.ResultsIn comparison to standard regular screening recommendations, risk-dependent adaptive screening reduced screening harms while maintaining a similar level of health benefits. The net gains and the balance of benefits and harms from LCS with efficient adaptive schedules were improved compared to those from regular screening, especially when the screening-related disutilities are high.ConclusionsAdaptive screening schedules can reduce the associated harms of screening while maintaining its associated lung cancer mortality reductions and years of life gained. Our study identifies individually tailored schedules that optimize the screening benefit/harm trade-offs.

PCN66 A Systematic Literature Review of the Economic Evaluations of Different Treatments in Patients with Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

Management of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is associated with extensive economic burden. With improvements in economic level and clinical research, findings and conclusions with regards to this crucial issue are evolving. The objective of this systematic literature review (SLR) was to conduct a comprehensive assessment of economic evaluations in CML. Literature search of English language publications from 2010-2020 was conducted in Embase®, MEDLINE®,NHS EED and relevant conference proceedings to identify economic evaluations of CML that fulfilled pre-defined inclusion criteria. Relevant health technology assessment reports (HTAs) were also included. Data on model specifications, patient characteristics, cost and main outcomes were extracted from included studies. The SLR retrieved 1492 records; 44 fulfilled eligibility criteria. Majority of studies evaluated first-line treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). Treatments evaluated included imatinib, nilotinib, ponatinib and bosutinib. Most studies used a Markov model and time horizon varied from ≤5 years to life-time. Most studies and HTAs reported cycle length of 1 month. As first-line therapy, imatinib was cost-effective versus nilotinib and dasatinib in six studies; nilotinib was cost-effective versus imatinib and dasatinib in five studies. As second-line therapy, nilotinib and dasatinib were cost-effective versus high-dose imatinib. Bosutinib and dasatinib were cost-effective under patient access schemes. As third-line treatment, ponatinib yielded discounted quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and improved outcomes versus second-generation TKIs. Imatinib is cost-effective in newly-diagnosed patients with CML as first-line therapy, while nilotinib and dasatinib are cost-effective as second-line agent in patients who are resistant/intolerant to imatinib. Limited evidence exists regarding the economic evaluations in the third-line setting. More studies assessing the long-term efficacy and cost-effectiveness of novel treatments in CML are necessary.

Cost-Effectiveness of a 12-Month Fixed Duration of Venetoclax in Combination with Obinutuzumab Versus Chemoimmunotherapy and Other Novel Combinations in First-Line Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia in Canada

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of venetoclax + obinutuzumab (GAZYVA®, G), (VEN+G) in the treatment of first-line (1L) chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) from a Canadian health care system cost perspective. METHODS: A three-state partitioned-survival model was used to extrapolate progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) over a 10-year time horizon. Cost-effectiveness was estimated comparing 12-month fixed duration of VEN+G versus (vs) G + Chlorambucil (GClb) based on the CLL14 clinical trial (NCT02242942). Other comparators included Bendamustine + rituximab (BR), Chlorambucil + rituximab (Clb+R), Ibrutinib (Ibr), Acalabrutinib (Acala) and Acalabrutinib + GAZYVA (Acala+G). VEN+G was also compared to the combination of fludarabine, cyclophosphamide and rituximab (FCR) in the overall 1L CLL population which included unfit and fit patients. Relative efficacy of VEN+G vs other comparators was estimated using a network meta-analysis. Health state utilities and adverse event disutilities were derived from a systematic literature review and other published sources. Costs included CLL treatment, routine care and monitoring, adverse events, disease progression costs, subsequent treatment costs, and end of life care. Uncertainty was assessed using an underlying probabilistic model (probabilistic analysis of uncertainty generated from 5,000 iterations), through deterministic sensitivity analyses (i.e., one-way sensitivity analyses (OWSA)), and through a series of alternative scenario analyses. RESULTS: For the overall unfit 1L CLL patient population, the probabilistic total discounted costs incurred over a 10-year time horizon were as follows: $217,727 for VEN+G vs $312,287 for GClb, $399,219 for BR, $380,713 for Clb+R, $736,017 for Ibr, $868,797 for Acala and $916,139 for Acala+G. The probabilistic total discounted quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were 4.964 for VEN+G vs 4.750, 4.550, 4.422, 4.709, 5.269, and 5.359, respectively for the comparators. For the overall 1L CLL patient population, the probabilistic total discounted costs were $219,651 for VEN+G vs $312,570 for GClb, $342,195 for FCR, $397,262 for BR, $380,551 for Clb+R, $757,129 for Ibr, $868,388 for Acala, and $916,798 for Acala+G. The probabilistic total discounted QALYs were 5.888 for VEN+G vs 5.519, 5.067, 5.198, 5.073, 5.597, 6.259 and 6.380, respectively for the comparators. VEN+G was found to be less costly and more efficacious (i.e., dominant) compared to GClb, BR, Clb+R, Ibr and FCR. As a result, incremental cost utility ratios (ICERs) were not calculated for these comparators. Acala and Acala+G resulted in ICERs ranging from $1.4-$2.1 million per QALY gained relative to VEN+G, which is not cost-effective. Based on the probabilistic model and 5,000 simulations, VEN+G was found to be at least 97% cost-effective across all decision maker willingness-to-pay thresholds. The results from the deterministic model were found to be similar to the probabilistic model. Using the deterministic model, and in comparison to the most commonly prescribed treatment for 1L CLL in Canada (i.e., Ibr), the OWSA comparing VEN+G to Ibr found that the most influential variables in the model were the PFS and OS hazard ratios for Ibr and the utility values for PFS and post-progression survival. CONCLUSION: VEN+G is an effective novel fixed duration treatment option which leads to deep and durable responses for the treatment of patients with unfit 1L CLL and provides excellent value-for-money compared with existing chemoimmunotherapy and treat to progression novel combinations. Disclosures Chatterjee: Pharmerit: Current Employment. Van de Wetering:Pharmerit: Current Employment. Goeree:AbbVie Inc.: Consultancy. Desbois:AbbVie Inc.: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Manzi:AbbVie Inc.: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Manzoor:AbbVie: Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Owen:AbbVie, F. Hoffmann-La Roche, Janssen, Astrazeneca, Merck, Servier, Novartis, Teva: Honoraria. Sail:AbbVie Inc.: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company.

Cost-effectiveness and public health impact of alternative influenza vaccination strategies in high-risk adults.

High-dose trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-IIV3) or recombinant trivalent influenza vaccine (RIV) may increase influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in adults with conditions that place them at high risk for influenza complications. This analysis models the public health impact and cost-effectiveness (CE) of these vaccines for 50-64year-olds. Markov model CE analysis compared 5 strategies in 50-64year-olds: no vaccination; only standard-dose IIV3 offered (SD-IIV3 only), only quadrivalent influenza vaccine offered (SD-IIV4 only); high-risk patients receiving HD-IIV3, others receiving SD-IIV3 (HD-IIV3 & SD-IIV3); and high-risk patients receiving HD-IIV3, others receiving SD-IIV4 (HD-IIV3 & SD-IIV4). In a secondary analysis, RIV replaced HD-IIV3. Parameters were obtained from U.S. databases, the medical literature and extrapolations from VE estimates. Effectiveness was measured as 3%/year discounted quality adjusted life year (QALY) losses avoided. The least expensive strategy was SD-IIV3 only, with total costs of $99.84/person. The SD-IIV4 only strategy cost an additional $0.91/person, or $37,700/QALY gained. The HD-IIV3 & SD-IIV4 strategy cost $1.06 more than SD-IIV4 only, or $71,500/QALY gained. No vaccination and HD-IIV3 & SD-IIV3 strategies were dominated. Results were sensitive to influenza incidence, vaccine cost, standard-dose VE in the entire population and high-dose VE in high-risk patients. The CE of RIV for high-risk patients was dependent on as yet unknown parameter values. Based on available data, using high-dose influenza vaccine or RIV in middle-aged, high-risk patients may be an economically favorable vaccination strategy with public health benefits. Clinical trials of these vaccines in this population may be warranted.

Should Israel screen all mothers-to-be to prevent early-onset of neonatal group B streptococcal disease? A cost-utility analysis

BackgroundIn Israel, an average of 37 children are born each year with sepsis and another four with meningitis as a result of Group B Streptococcal (GBS) disease. Israel currently only screens mothers with defined risk factors (around 15% of all pregnancies) in order to identify candidates for Intrapartum Antiobiotic Prophyhlaxis (IAP) of GBS. This paper presents a cost-utility analysis of implementing an alternative strategy, which would expand the current protocol to one aiming to screen all pregnant women at 35–37 weeks gestation based on taking a vaginal culture for GBS.MethodsA spreadsheet model was built incorporating technical, epidemiological, health service costs, demographic and economic data based primarily on Israeli sources.ResultsThe intervention of universal screening (compared with the current scenario) would increase screening costs from 580,000 NIS to 3,278,000 million NIS. In addition, the intervention would also increase penicillin costs from 39,000 NIS to 221,000 NIS. Current culture screening of approximately 15% of mothers-to-be with high risk factors resulted in 42 GBS births in 2008-9 (0.253/1000 births). Expanding culture screening to 85% of mothers-to-be, will decrease the number of GBS births to 17.3 (0.104/1000 births). The initial 2.9 million NIS incremental intervention costs are offset by decreased treatment costs of 1.9 million NIS and work productivity gains of 811,000 NIS as a result of a decrease in neurological sequelae from GBS caused meningitis. Thus the resultant net cost of the intervention is only around 134,000 NIS. Culture based screening will reduce the burden of disease by 12.6 discounted Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYS), giving a very cost effective baseline incremental cost per QALY (cf. risk factor screening) of 10,641 NIS per QALY. The data was very sensitive to rates of anaphylactic shock and changes in the percentage of meningitis cases that had associated long term-sequelae.ConclusionIt is recommended that Israel adopt universal culture-based GBS screening.

Modeling the impact of the difference in cross-protection data between a human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine and a human papillomavirus (HPV)-6/11/16/18 vaccine in Canada

BackgroundIn Canada, two vaccines that have demonstrated high efficacy against infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) types −16 and −18 are available. The HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine provides protection against genital warts (GW) while the HPV-16/18 vaccine may provide better protection against other oncogenic HPV types. In this analysis, the estimated clinical and economic benefit of each of these vaccines was compared in the Canadian setting.MethodsA Markov model of the natural history of HPV infection among women, cervical cancer (CC) and GW was used to estimate the impact of vaccinating a cohort of 100,000 12-year-old females on lifetime outcomes and healthcare system costs (no indirect benefit in males included). A budget impact model was used to estimate the impact of each vaccine by province.ResultsIn the base case, vaccination with the HPV-16/18 vaccine was predicted to prevent 48 additional CC cases, and 16 additional CC deaths, while vaccination with the HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine was predicted to prevent 6,933 additional GW cases. Vaccination with the HPV-16/18 vaccine was estimated to save 1 additional discounted quality adjusted life year (QALY) at an overall lower lifetime cost to the healthcare system compared to the HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine (assuming vaccine price parity). In sensitivity analyses, the HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine was associated with greater QALYs saved when the cross-protection efficacy of the HPV-16/18 vaccine was reduced, or the burden of GW due to HPV-6/11 was increased. In most scenarios with price parity, the lifetime healthcare cost of the strategy with the HPV-16/18 vaccine was predicted to be lower than the HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine. In the probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the HPV-16/18 vaccine provided more QALY benefit than the HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine in 49.2% of scenarios, with lower relative lifetime costs in 83.5% of scenarios.ConclusionsOverall, the predicted lifetime healthcare costs and QALYs saved by implementing each of the vaccines are similar. Vaccination with the HPV-16/18 vaccine is expected to be associated with reduced CC disease morbidity and mortality compared to vaccination with the HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine. Differences in these outcomes depend on the extent of cervical disease prevented by cross-protection and the burden of GW caused by HPV-6/11.

Cost-Effectiveness of Adding Imatinib to Chemotherapy in Adult Patients with Chromosom-Positive Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (Ph+ALL): A Canadian Perspective

BACKGROUND: Ph+ALL is a rare, high-risk, aggressive form of acute leukemia, affecting primarily adults and the elderly. Patients with high-risk forms of ALL typically have extremely poor prognosis and incur high disease-related costs. Successful use of imatinib in patients with Ph+CML has led to the administration of imatinib in recent clinical studies for patients with Ph+ALL. Given the changing treatment landscape of Ph+ALL and the recent development of additional targeted treatments for this disease, an appraisal of the economic burden associated with Ph+ALL is warranted for evaluation of appropriate treatment options and the potential value associated with novel therapies. This study explores the cost effectiveness of imatinib plus conventional chemotherapy (CC) regimens versus CC alone in adult Ph+ALL patients.METHODS: A Markov model simulated a hypothetical cohort of 1000 adult Ph+ALL patients receiving imatinib+CC or CC alone. Patients were distributed over time into three health states: alive without disease progression (DFS), alive with disease progression (DS), or dead. Probabilities of being in the states were derived from the published literature. In the absence of relevant data pertaining to Ph+ALL, assumptions about costs and utilities were derived from a cost analysis of CML. A Canadian health care payer perspective was considered, therefore only direct medical costs were included in the analysis. Patients were followed for a total of ten years in monthly intervals. All outcomes were discounted at a 5% rate per annum.RESULTS: Based on the model framework and assumptions, the total discounted survival was 1.09 years for CC and 4.13 years for imatinib+CC. Total discounted disease free survival was 0.76 year for CC and 2.69 years for imatinib+CC. Assuming utility weights of 0.854 and 0.596 for DFS and DS, respectively, the total discounted quality adjusted life years (QALY) were estimated to be 0.84 versus 3.16 for CC and imatinib+CC, respectively. Thus, the net incremental gain in discounted quality adjusted survival was 2.32 QALYs. The monthly costs of DFS and DS were estimated at $168 and $848, respectively. The net costs associated with imatinib were $101,929. The incremental cost per QALY of imatinib+CC v. CC alone was approximately $44,048 (i.e., $101,929 divided by 2.32 QALYs).CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that imatinib in the treatment of Ph+ALL is a cost-effective use of health-care resources, and should be considered in patients who are appropriate candidates for such therapy.

Economic evaluation of folic acid food fortification in The Netherlands

Folic acid intake before and during pregnancy reduces neural tube defects (NTD). Therefore, several countries have enriched bulk food with folic acid resulting in a 26-48% decrease in the prevalence of NTDs. In 2000, the Dutch Health Council advised against folic acid enrichment based on literature research; yet formal cost-effectiveness information was absent. We designed our study to estimate cost-effectiveness of folic acid food fortification in the Netherlands. Prevalence of NTD at birth, life-time costs of care, and folic acid fortification costs were estimated using Dutch registrations, Dutch guidelines for costing, (inter)national literature and expert opinions. Both net cost per discounted life year gained and net cost per discounted quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained were estimated for the base case and sensitivity analyses. In the base case and most sensitivity analyses, folic acid enrichment was estimated to be cost-saving. Bulk food fortification with folic acid remains cost-effective as long as enrichment costs do not exceed euro5.5 million (threshold at euro20 000 per QALY). Our model suggests that folic acid fortification of bulk food to prevent cases of NTD in newborns might be a cost-saving intervention in the Netherlands. Additionally, besides the evidence that folic acid reduces the number of NTDs, there are indications that folic acid is associated with the prevention of other birth defects, cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Our model did not yet include these possibly beneficial effects.

522] COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF TELBIVUDINE VERSUS LAMIVUDINE FOR CHRONIC HEPATITIS B

Aim: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of telbivudine versus lamivudine for HBeAg-positive or negative chronic hepatitis B. Methods: Individual patient data (age, gender, virological, serological and biochemical response and resistance to telbivudine versus lamivudine) after I04 weeks from the multinational GLOBE registration trial (n = 1367) were applied to a Markov cohort simulation to project lifelong clinical and economic outcomes using US data for life expectancy, quality of life, liver transplant survival, drug costs (telbivudine $1 8 and lamivudine $7 per pill) with a 3% annual discount rate. Because of differences in demographic characteristics and response, separate analyses were performed for HBeAgpositive and negative patients. Results: At week 104, non-detectable HBV DNA responses occurred in 56% with telbivudine and 38% with lamivudine of HBeAg-positive patients (p <0.0001), and in 82% with telbivudine and 57% with lamivudine of HBeAg-negative patients (p < 0.000 I ) . For HBeAg-positive patients, telbivudine reduced the 10-year relative risk of cirrhosis by 33% (from 14% to 9.6%) and extended life by 3.8 years (4.3 quality-adjusted life years) in the model. Telbivudine had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $2,500 per discounted quality-adjusted life year (DQALY) gained. Because disease progression is more rapid in older patients and in men, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for telbivudine were $5,000 at age 20, $2,800 at age 30, $2,200 at age 40 and $2,700 at age 50 (baseline 74.3% men) and were $1,600 for men and $6,900 for women (baseline mean age 32.4). For HBeAg-negative patients, telbivudine reduced the 1 0-year relative risk of cirrhosis by 18% (from 12% to 9.9%) and extended life by 0.8 years (0.8 quality-adjusted life years). Telbivudine had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $37,800 per DQALY. In sensitivity analysis, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for telbivudine were $59,000 at age 20, $48,900 at age 30, $40,100 at age 40, $33,000 at age 50 (baseline 78.9% men) and were $34,300 for men and $54,200 for women (baseline mean age 42.9). Conclusions: Based on the 104-week GLOBE trial results for patients with chronic hepatitis B, telbivudine may prolong life and should be a cost-effective alternative to lamivudine with an incremental cost-utility ratio falling within the range of other accepted medical interventions.

Optimal Follow-up Strategies After Aorto-iliac Prosthetic Reconstruction: A Decision Analysis and Cost-effectiveness Analysis

Objective. The primary aim of ultrasound follow-up after aorto-iliac prosthetic reconstruction is to correct false aneurysms before rupture occurs. We investigated whether follow-up improves the life expectancy of patients and sought to identify the most cost-effective follow-up strategy. Design of the Study. A Monte Carlo Markov decision model was constructed. The occurrence of false aneurysms was modelled as a time-dependent process for each anastomotic site, based on published series. Using this model, the impact of various follow-up strategies was investigated for three types of prostheses, aorto-distal tube, aorto-bi-iliac, and aorto-bi-femoral prostheses. Main outcome measures were discounted quality adjusted life years (dQALYs), discounted costs, and (discounted) cost-effectiveness (CE) ratios. Results. Follow-up of patients with aorto-distal tube and aorto-bifemoral prostheses did not result in an improvement life expectancy and was not cost-effective, QALYs 7.53 and 7.62 years, respectively. The results for aorto-distal tube and aorto-bifemoral prostheses were not sensitive to any variation in the model parameters. In the base case analysis, the life expectancy of patients with aorto-bi-iliac prostheses was 7.50 QALYs (95% confidence interval 7.46–7.54) whether or not they underwent routine follow-up. However, patients aged 54 years or younger gained 0.11 QALYs with annual follow-up ( p<0.05). The most cost-effective strategy was annual follow-up that starts 10 years after the initial operation, and continues up to 30 years after surgery (4600 Euro; CE ratio 21,000 Euro per QALY). When perioperative mortality of elective reconstruction of false aneurysms is 2% or lower (e.g. when endovascular treatment is used), a small improvement is observed (7.56 vs. 7.50 QALYs; p<0.05; CE ratio 35,000 Euro per QALY). Conclusions. Annual follow-up of aorto-bi-iliac prostheses should be restricted to patients aged 54 or younger and not start before 10 years after surgery. The same strategy can only be considered for older patients if mortality for secondary intervention is lower than 2%. Since patients with aorto-distal tube and aorto-bi-femoral prostheses do not benefit from follow-up for the detection of false aneurysms, this practice should be discouraged in these patient groups.

Cost-effectiveness of interferon alfa-2b with and without ribavirin as therapy for chronic hepatitis C in Sweden.

Recent trials have shown that treatment with a combination of interferon alfa-2b and ribavirin results in sustained loss of detectable hepatitis C-virus (HCV) RNA in a higher proportion of patients than treatment with interferon alone. Combination therapy, however, is two to three times as expensive as monotherapy. Based on data from recent randomized clinical trials and a previously published decision model, we developed a Markov model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of initial combination therapy with interferon and ribavirin versus interferon alone for previously untreated patients with chronic HCV infection in Sweden. Clinical praxis and quality adjustments were based on expert estimates and costs were gathered from different health care providers in Sweden. Combination therapy for 24 or 48 weeks, compared to interferon alone, prolonged quality adjusted life expectancy by 0.5 to 1.1 years at marginal cost-effectiveness ratios of US$ 1,400 to US$ 6,000 per DQALY (discounted quality-adjusted life-year) for patients with genotype 1. In genotype 1, 48 weeks compared to 24 weeks of combination therapy prolonged quality adjusted life expectancy by 0.6 years at a marginal cost-effectiveness ratio of $US 9,800 per DQALY. For patients with genotype non-1, combination therapy for 24 or 48 weeks, compared to interferon alone, prolonged quality adjusted life expectancy by 2.3 years, with combination therapy for 24 weeks being money-saving. The results were robust in sensitivity analyses. Combination therapy with interferon and ribavirin increased quality-adjusted life expectancy and was cost-effective for patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Cost-effectiveness of Interferon Alfa-2b With and Without Ribavirin as Therapy for Chronic Hepatitis C in Sweden

Background: Recent trials have shown that treatment with a combination of interferon alfa-2b and ribavirin results in sustained loss of detectable hepatitis C-virus (HCV) RNA in a higher proportion of patients than treatment with interferon alone. Combination therapy, however, is two to three times as expensive as monotherapy. Methods: Based on data from recent randomized clinical trials and a previously published decision model, we developed a Markov model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of initial combination therapy with interferon and ribavirin versus interferon alone for previously untreated patients with chronic HCV infection in Sweden. Clinical praxis and quality adjustments were based on expert estimates and costs were gathered from different health care providers in Sweden. Results: Combination therapy for 24 or 48 weeks, compared to interferon alone, prolonged quality adjusted life expectancy by 0.5 to 1.1 years at marginal cost-effectiveness ratios of US$ 1,400 to US$ 6,000 per DQALY (discounted quality-adjusted life-year) for patients with genotype 1. In genotype 1, 48 weeks compared to 24 weeks of combination therapy prolonged quality adjusted life expectancy by 0.6 years at a marginal cost-effectiveness ratio of $US 9,800 per DQALY. For patients with genotype non-1, combination therapy for 24 or 48 weeks, compared to interferon alone, prolonged quality adjusted life expectancy by 2.3 years, with combination therapy for 24 weeks being money-saving. The results were robust in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Combination therapy with interferon and ribavirin increased quality-adjusted life expectancy and was cost-effective for patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Cost-effectiveness of 24 or 48 weeks of interferon α-2b alone or with ribavirin as initial treatment of chronic hepatitis c

OBJECTIVE: Initial therapy with ribavirin and interferon α-2b results in a higher sustained virological response than interferon alone, but this regimen is expensive. We aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of 24- or 48-wk initial treatment with combination therapy versus interferon alone for patients who have chronic hepatitis C. METHODS: Data from recent randomized clinical trials comparing combination therapy to interferon alone were applied to a previously published computer cohort simulation to project lifelong clinical and economic outcomes. Natural history and economic estimates were based on published literature, expert panel estimates, and actual variable cost and reimbursement data. RESULTS: Using treatment stopping rules, sustained viral negative response rates would be 33.1% and 39.8% for patients receiving 24 versus 48 wk of ribavirin/interferon, compared with 14.3% for 48 wk of interferon alone. Compared to the interferon alone strategy, 24 or 48 wk of combination therapy should prolong life expectancy by 1.4 to 2.0 yr at marginal cost-effectiveness ratios of $4400 to $5400 per discounted quality-adjusted life-year (DQALY) gained. Compared to 24 wk of combination therapy, 48 wk of combination therapy should prolong life expectancy by 0.6 yr at a marginal cost-effectiveness ratio of $7700 per DQALY gained. The results were robust, with 24 or 48 wk of combination therapy remaining preferred and cost-effective in sensitivity analysis compared with interferon alone. CONCLUSION: For patients with chronic hepatitis C, 24 or 48 wk of ribavirin and interferon should prolong life and be cost-effective when compared with 48 wk of interferon alone.

Treatment of intact familial intracranial aneurysms: a decision-analytical approach.

Clinical decision analysis is applied to the treatment decisions for four patients with unruptured familial aneurysms. The surgical treatment was uneventful in all patients except one with mild mixed aphasia and facial weakness postoperatively; these deficits disappeared in less than 2 years. In the decision analysis, discounted Quality Adjusted Life Years are used as an outcome measure. Probability estimates are extracted from the literature when available. It is concluded that the decision to treat the aneurysm neurosurgically in three of the four patients was correct. In two of these three patients, the decision cannot be altered by plausible changes in estimated data. For the third patient, only the combination of a low probability of rupture, a high surgical mortality and morbidity, and high discount favors conservative treatment. In the fourth patient, a toss-up situation exists. More knowledge of the probability of rupture, the probability of the development of other aneurysms, and the results of operation on intact intracranial aneurysms would have made the analysis more accurate. Clinical research should address these issues.