Disaster Prevention Planning Research Articles

The Life Span of Buildings and the Conversion of Cities to an Incombustible State

Conversion of building structures or materials to an incombustible state is one of the most important issues in the field of disaster prevention planning. In this paper, we propose a statistical model that can describe the life span of buildings in order to evaluate the probability and speed of conversion of buildings to an incombustible state. We include an application of the model to actual data taken from the densely built-up areas of Tokyo, and new results are presented.

既成市街地における画地統合のモデル化と要因分析

In the field of urban planning, building lots are an important subject area for consideration since the individual lot forms the fundamental basic unit of land use. Lots consolidation should be promoted from the viewpoint of environmental planning and disaster prevention planning, specifically in the established city area in which subdivision of standard lots has been often observed. In this paper, we construct a stochastic model which describes the possibility and the probability that lots will be consolidated and form larger spatial unit. The unknown parameters of the model are estimated using the GIS data compiled by a local government ward in Tokyo. It is shown that the probability of lots consolidation is mainly dependent on the relationships with neighboring lots and location, as well as the properties of lots themselves. The spatial distribution of the probability of lots consolidation is shown using the estimated model.

A Decision-making Model for Train Evacuation Plan against Urban Flood

It is pointed out that underground space is very vulnerable to water invasion by the so-called “urban flood”. This study provides a time-series model connecting hydraulic process and train evacuation process so as to derive the best action at the train evacuation phase in any cases of water invasion. The model is verified by an example of the Tsurumai subway line of Nagoya City for implementing rational disaster prevention planning of subway.

電子住宅地図を用いた簡便な地震時火災延焼シミュレーションシステムの構築

1) Present Situation and Problem of Earthquake Disaster Prevention Information System After the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake, It was recognized again that there is the earthquake which brings locally the heavy damage even if its magnitude is relatively small. The local public bodies are expected to estimate the damage and to form the disaster prevention plan in the future earthquakes which are supposed to occur in each area. Early Estimation System for Earthquake Disaster (EES) has been operated by National Land Agency since April in 1996 to support the local public bodies in the estimation of the damage. Although this system can be applied to every local public body, the damage is estimated by mesh and the detailed setup can not be performed. On the other hand, some local public bodies have their original disaster prevention information systems. In for example, Yokohama-shi, the advanced system (Real-time assessment of earthquake disaster in Yokohama; READY) is built in which the real-time estimation of the damage in an earthquake can be performed with the dense seismograph network and GIS(geographic information system). However, it is almost impossible to apply the same system to another local public body because of the economical reason. Thus several earthquake disaster prevention information systems have been developed and some of them are put into practical use. But in reality most of the small-to-medium sized local public bodies do not have any systems. It is expected to develop the system which is convenient, functional and not expensive, so that many local public bodies can introduce it. Considering the heavy damage by the fire in the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake, the function of simulation of spreading fire is to be added to the system. The function of estimation of the damage in a future earthquake and real-time estimation right after the occurrence of an earthquake can be realized in the identical system. The system is considered to be most useful in which the information of every house and building can be managed in the area covered by the local public body. In recent years, the digital residential map produced by such a company as Zenrin Co.Ltd has been available in Japan. It made it possible to develop the disaster information system based on GIS in which every house and building is a target of risk Abstract: The objective of this study is to develop the convenient simulation system of the spreading fires at an earthquake. Generally, it requires a tremendous labor to make the data which are used for this kind of simulation. This system needs some attribute data and the coordinate of each residence which can be picked up with a digital residential map in a simple manner besides the data about the wind direction, wind velocity and seismic intensity. A work file is produced with the basic data and the simulation of the spreading fire is formulated as the shortest route problem, which is solved by the Dijkstra’s algorithm. The results of the simulation can be shown on the digital residential map of computer display.

STUDY ON DEBRIS FLOW BEHAVIOR IN A REGION AROUND A POINT OF ABRUPT SLPOE REDUCING

Deposition process of debris flow has not been examined in detail in a region around a point of abrupt slope reducing though the process is very important for disaster prevention planning. Several experiments were carried out to investigate the process by measuring profiles of free surface, interface if it appears and bed and by tracing sand particle locus. The experimental results were compared with those of computation of a two-layer model proposed by the authors to show good agreement in case of movable bed surface condition in upstream reach and some discrepancy with fixed bed there. This discrepancy was somewhat improved by modeling the equation for equilibrium bed slope

Study on behavior and transport plan of the injured at earthquake disaster

The characteristics of the behavior of injured in Nishinomiya City at the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster are analyzed to propose an estimation method of the number of the injured to medicalinstitutions. This estimation method is composed of the logistic curve with some parameters, and correlated with the true value. Through a case study, it becomes clear that the location of medical institutions would bring the over-concentration of the injured and that the traffic jams by broken bridges would not be main factors. Transport plan of the injured should be handled explicitly into local disaster prevention plan.

An Appraisal of Regional Disaster Prevention Plan Considering Distribution of Urban Activity after an Earthquake

An Appraisal of Regional Disaster Prevention Plan Considering Distribution of Urban Activity after an Earthquake

生産緑地を防災緑地として活用するための基礎的研究

The aim of this study is to analyze the effectiveness of agricultural land as a disaster refuge in an earthquake fire. Safety evacuation areas and places of temporal refuge are planned in disaster prevention planning. However, they are not always close to residents. On the other hand, there are many small open spaces closer represented by agricultural land in urbanized area. But agricultural land is decreasing by land development year after year. As a result, we showed the effectiveness of planting fire preventive trees in agricultural land or putting fire resistive buildings around agricultural land against earthquake fire, thus we showed necessity to preserve agricultural land.

The Year 2000 problem solver: a five-step disaster prevention plan

As the year 2000 approaches, computer systems in place throughout the world are starting to go haywire because they treat the year as two digits instead of four. Minor problem? Hardly. It's been estimated that businesses and governments worldwide will spend at least $300 million in the next few years to correct it! For all the systems administrators and managers scurrying to meet the deadline, this crucial guide will be a problem-solver and a lifesaver. Wisely addressing the Year 2000 Problem from a managerial as well as technical viewpoint, the author spells out a five-step approach for disaster prevention. He alerts readers to the most likely trouble spots -- those involving systems that handle inventory, actuary, and critical accounting or business forecasting tasks. Furthermore, he points out that 2000 is also a leap year, which creates a whole other set of concerns! Systems that aren't ready for the year 2000 may well face total collapse. Just as the millennium problem is shaping up as one of the computer world's most explosive topics in the upcoming year, The Year 2000 Problem Solver is sure to be one of its bestselling books.

地震防災における地方大学の役割

Review of disaster prevention plans is being made everywhere throughout the country after the disaster of the Hanshin Awaji Major Earthquake. Although most of the disaster prevention countermeasures depend on the regional administration, there are very few in stuff having sufficient expertise concerning such countermeasures in local autonomies. Also to promote the projects to build up towns strong enough to be catastropheproof, cooperation of those concerned in the industrical circles or those local dwellers is required. For that purpose, it should be intended that cooperation be secured by the researchers, experts of the business circles, responsible persons of autonomies, etc. who are concerned in variety of the fields such as civil engineering, construction, urban planning, social engineering, etc. as well as earthquake engineering.In Iwate Prefecture, several researching groups with Iwate University as a pivotal researching medium have gathered reports concerning the ground characteristics and seismic risks in Morioka city area, human consciousness and cry for tsunami disaster countermeasures, in concert with the cities and prefecture. On the other hand, cooperation among the industry world, academic society, and administrative municipalities is intentionally deepened by establishing the research group of ground characteristics and disaster prevention in the Iwate Network System as an information-exchanging agency, in order to actively utilize the fruitful outcomes of the researchs in cooperation.

Two surveys for taking measures to cope with the coming earthquake to the Tokyo Metropolis

Although Tokyo City has frequently suffered from earthquake disasters, more than 70 years have passed since the last catastrophe of 1923. Because Tokyo has a greater probability now than ever of being hit by another major earthquake, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has carried out two surveys for taking measures to cope with it; earthquake vulnerability assessment and earthquake damage prediction. The former assesses earthquake vulnerability regionally and is used for disaster-proof city planning. Damage due to the expected earthquake is quantitatively estimated in the latter. The results are used for making a regional disaster prevention plan in an emergency. Both physical and human geographers participate in these interdisciplinary surveys effectively.

Disaster prevention plan developed for high‐risk volcano

Besides being Central America's most notorious volcano, Guatemala's Santa Maria, is now touted as a hotspot for an unlikely prospect: volcanic disaster prevention.Last November, an international workshop was held in Quezaltenango to develop an integrated plan for preventing volcanic hazards at Santa Maria, as part of a broader strategy to maximize the return on investments by focusing on team projects in natural disaster reduction.

Failure Mechanism of Landslide with “squeezing-out” deformation

The Nebukawa-station Landslide was triggered by the Kanto earthquake in 1923. Both geological and geotechnical studies point out that the landslide failed rapidly by shearing (compression failure) in the weak pumice layer which was accompanied with the unique deformation named “squeezing-out” that is, the upper layer, mainly massive lava flow, subsided and squeezed out the underlying pumice layer to the front of slide, and the slope collapsed successively.The elastic-plastic FEM analyses both on the landslide and the simplified three-layers model indicate that the “squeezing-out” is one of the common deformation type on slope which consists of thin weak intertrappean layer (e. g. pumice) and gentle dipping (less than 10 degree) thick rigid layers (e. g. lava).Several geologic evidences support the idea that the landslide with the “squeezing-out” deformation occurs in dissected slope of stratovolcano, and sometimes leads to the run-off of debris, high speed and long distance; these will then provide basic information useful for disaster prevention planning.

火災時避難行動のシミュレーション

In disaster-prevention plans, the way of role sharing is important. There are many things to do for the laders. So, they are required to share these roles and the planner should consider who should share a role and who should share another. And also, they have to consider that in disasters some people obey the leaders and others do not. In this study a simulation model of human behavior considering these points was built and an experiment with this simulation model was executed. The results of experiment were: 1. This simulation model reflects the differencee between subjects. 2. The subjects considered many different things and what they consiered was independent from the situation set by the model. 3. The subjects'action became similor when the situation became severe. 4. The sbjects considered another leader when there is one.

Model Analysis on Planning Problem of River Disaster Prevention in Urbanized Area

In this study a mathematical planning model is formulated as explorative optimization model, in which flood run-off simulation models is embedded to describe the disaster caused by flood, in order to analyse planning problem on river disaster prevention in urbanized area systematically.Based on past studies a stage-wised planning process, comprised with “Stage of analysis” and “Stage of integration”, is proposed and the mathematical planning model is used for designing alternatives of disaster prevention facilities at “Stage of integration” of planning process. Parametric analyses utilizing this model would produce effective information for disaster prevention planning in urbanized area.The applicability of the mathematical planning mod el is evidenced through case study carried out in Ina River basin area.

広域避難計画論 : 防火帯地区分割に基づく避難計画

To cope with many and simultaneous fires in a wooden city caused by a great earthquake, there are three major strategies which are a) Prevention of fire outbreak, b) Interception of fire spreading, c) Evacuation of inhabitants. In the Japanese metropolitan area of today, evacuation to a safe open space of refuge is the only way to secure the life safety of inhabitants even though they had to walk long distance to get there. But not only for securing the life safety but also for the reduction of material damage, it is desired that fiveshould be suppressed in its earlystage by the trategies of a) and b). And it could be said that the ultimate goal of disaster prevention planning is to reconstruct a city structurally strong in conflagration and make the evacuation planning unnecessary. As a step for attaining this object, a methodology is proposed which at first finds out districts that have no safe open space of refuge within walking distance and then divides them into small blocks that are surrounded with firebreaks and evacuates the inhabitants to the blocks that come to have no fire spreadings there. Seen from the measures to allocate a park of refuge in each block and secure enough open space between wooden houses, the planning for preventing post-earthquake fire damage is no more than the planning for providing comfortable living environment in a city.