Disability-adjusted Life Years Rate Research Articles

Pancreatic cancer challenge in 52 Asian countries: age-centric insights and the role of modifiable risk factors (1990-2019).

Pancreatic cancer is renowned for its elevated incidence and mortality rates on a global scale. The disease burden of pancreatic cancer is anticipated to increase, particularly in Asia, due to its vast and rapidly aging population. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 were analyzed for pancreatic cancer burden across 52 countries in Asia, including the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for pancreatic cancer, with a focus on risk factors such as high body mass index (BMI), elevated fasting plasma glucose, and smoking. We applied the Estimated Annual Percentage Change, the Age-Period-Cohort model, and decomposition analysis to evaluate incidence trends and effects. From 1990 to 2019, both incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in Asia significantly increased, with an average annual standardized incidence rate change of 1.73%. Males consistently exhibited higher rates than females, with smoking as a key risk factor. Central Asia reported the highest rates, and South Asia the lowest. The incidence rose with age, peaking in those aged 70~74. The disease burden increased in all age groups, particularly in populations aged 55 and above, representing 84.41% of total cases in 2019, up from 79.01% in 1990. Pancreatic cancer ranked the fifth in incidence among six major gastrointestinal tumors but presented a significant growth rate of mortality and DALY. With the growing, aging population in Asia, the pancreatic cancer burden is projected to escalate, bringing a significant public health challenge. Hence, comprehensive public health strategies emphasizing early detection, risk modification, and optimized treatment of pancreatic cancer are imperative.

Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8-20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8-241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7-15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40-2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41-0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5-29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6-45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3-81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6-10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8-39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050. Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Global burden of diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2019 attributable to dietary factors: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

To analyse spatial and temporal changes in the global burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) attributable to dietary factors from 1990 to 2019. The burden of DM was analysed in terms of age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs), which were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and their corresponding estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). The ASDR exhibited a decreasing trend (EAPC = -0.02), while the age-standardized DALY rate exhibited an increasing trend (EAPC = 0.65). Forty-four percent of the burden of DM was attributable to dietary factors, with the three largest contributors being high intake of red meat, high intake of processed meat, and low intake of fruit. Residence in a region with a high sociodemographic index (SDI) was associated with a diet low in whole grains and high in red meat and processed meat, while residence in a low-SDI region was associated with a diet low in whole grains and fruits, and high in red meat. The age-standardized DALYs of DM attributable to dietary factors increased between 1990 and 2019 but differed among areas. The three largest dietary contributors to the burden of DM were high intake of red meat, high intake of processed meat, and low intake of fruit.

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures. Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed. In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles. The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The worldwide epidemiology of lip and oral cavity cancer attributable to smoking based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract Aim To analyze the worldwide epidemiology of lip and oral cavity cancer attributable to smoking. Methods The worldwide epidemiology of lip and oral cavity cancer attributable to smoking and its spatial distribution differences were analyzed using the age-standardized mortality rate, age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate, and estimated annual percent change (EAPC) according to information from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Results The number of deaths and DALYs associated with lip and oral cavity cancer attributable to smoking globally showed upward trends from 1990 to 2019, but the age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates decreased. The age-standardized mortality rate gradually increased with age. The age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates were markedly higher in low-middle social development index (SDI) regions than in other regions. The age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates showed slight increasing trends (EAPC = 0.16 and 0.07, respectively) in middle-SDI regions and the greatest decrease (EAPC = –1.60 and –1.74, respectively) in high-SDI regions. The three regions with the highest age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates were South Asia (1.59; 39.68), Eastern Europe (1.33; 40.59), and Central Europe (1.30; 37.67), but the largest increases were observed in East Asia (EAPC = 2.32, EAPC = 2.30), the Northern Mariana Islands (EAPC = 3.79, EAPC = 3.67), and Cabo Verde (EAPC = 2.84; DALY, EAPC = 3.38). Conclusion The overall disease burden attributable to smoking is decreasing, but the number of deaths and DALYs are still increasing. Moreover, there are regional and national differences, and high-risk regions and countries should implement targeted interventions to reduce the burden.

Time trends and gender disparities of Chinese cataract burden and their predictions.

To evaluate the trends and changes in the number and rates of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and prevalence of cataract in China between 1990 and 2019, and to predict the trends of cataract burden from 2020 to 2030. The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database was employed to collect the data on DALYs and the prevalence of cataract in China, which was distinguished by age and sex during the past three decades from 1990 to 2019, and then changes in the number and rates of cataract from 2020 to 2030 were predicted. All data were analyzed by the R program (version 4.2.2) and GraphPad Prism 9.0 statistics software. The number of DALYs of cataract increased from 449 322.84 in 1990 to 1 087 987.61 in 2019, number of cataract cases increased from 5 607 600.94 in 1990 to 18 142 568.96 in 2019. The age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) generally increased slightly [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC=0.1; 95%CI: -0.24 to 0.45), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) also increased (EAPC=0.88; 95%CI: 0.6 to 1.15). Cataract burden increased with age and female gender. Among the causes of cataract, air pollution was the most important, followed by smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index (BMI). The burden of cataract is predicted to grow persistently from 2020 to 2030, the number of DALYs and prevalence for cataract will rise to 2 336 431 and 43 698 620 respectively by 2030, the ASDR is predicted to be 85/100 000 and ASPR will be 1586/100 000 in 2030, females will still be at greater risk of suffering from cataract than males. The burden of cataract in China kept rising from 1990 to 2019. Increasing age and female gender are risk factors for cataract. Air pollution, smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high BMI are associated with cataract. The burden of cataract in China will gradually increase from 2020 to 2030, the elderly women in particular need attention. Our results may be of help for providing reference strategies to reduce cataract burden in the near future.

Disease Burden and Epidemiological Trends of Chronic Kidney Disease at the Global, Regional, National Levels from 1990 to 2019

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a serious public health issue worldwide, but the disease burden of CKD caused by different etiologies and changing trends has not been fully examined. Methods: We collected data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), including incident cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALY rate between 1990 and 2019 by region, etiology, age, and sex, and calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the rate to evaluate the epidemiological trends. Results: Globally, incident cases of CKD increased from 7.80 million in 1990 to 18.99 million in 2019, and DALYs increased from 21.50 million to 41.54 million. ASIR increased with an EAPC of 0.69 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0.49–0.89) and reached 233.65 per 100,000 in 2019, while the age-standardized DALY rate increased with an EAPC of 0.30 (95% UI 0.17–0.43) and reached 514.86 per 100,000. North Africa and the Middle East, central Latin America, and North America had the highest ASIR in 2019. Central Latin America had the highest age-standardized DALY rate, meanwhile. Almost all countries experienced an increase in ASIR, and over 50% of countries had an increasing trend in age-standardized DALY rate from 1990 to 2019. CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2 and hypertension accounted for the largest disease burden with 85% incident cases and 66% DALYs in 2019 of known causes, with the highest growth in age-standardized DALY rate and a similar geographic pattern to that of total CKD. Besides, the highest incidence rate of total and four specific CKDs were identified in people aged 70 plus years, who also had the highest DALY rate with a stable trend after 2010. Females had a higher ASIR, while males had a higher age-standardized DALY rate, the gap of which was most distinctive in CKD due to hypertension. Conclusion: The disease burden of CKD remains substantial and continues to grow globally. From 1990 to 2019, global incident cases of CKD have more than doubled and DALYs have almost doubled, and surpassed 40 million years. CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2 and hypertension contributed nearly 2/3 of DALYs in 2019 of known causes, and had witnessed the highest growth in age-standardized DALY rate. Etiology-specific prevention strategies should be placed as a high priority on the goal of precise control of CKD.

Global burden of early-onset colorectal cancer among people aged 40-49years from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030.

To explore the disease burden of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) in individuals aged 40-49years and provide baseline evidence for routine recommended age adjustment for CRC screening and other clinical decision-making. We collected data stratified by sex, risk factors, and socio-demographic index (SDI) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data Resources. Trends in disease burden were analyzed by estimated annual percentage change. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted the burden over the following 10years. In 2019, the global rates of incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of EO-CRC in people aged 40-44years were 11.48 (95% uncertainty interval: 10.50-12.59), 4.35 (4.01-4.70), 72.63 (66.48-79.52), 209.82 (193.55-226.59) per 100,000 population. For people aged 45-49years, the rates of these four estimates were 19.63 (17.97-21.54), 7.76 (7.16-8.41), 121.73 (110.99-133.84), and 335.83 (310.14-362.91), respectively. The incidence and prevalence rates for both age groups increased while the mortality and DALY rates remained stable from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, high-income North America had the highest incidence and prevalence rates. A low milk diet accounted for the largest proportion of global DALYs in EO-CRC, and there was a tendency for the DALY rate first to increase and then decrease with increasing SDI. The incidence and mortality rates were predicted to increase in the next 10years. The current and future burden of EO-CRC among people aged 40-49years is heavy. Substantial variation exists in disease burden across regions and countries. Urgent screening actions and policies are needed.

Global, regional, and national burden of hypertensive heart disease among older adults in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019: a trend analysis.

Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) poses a public health challenge, but data on its burden and trends among older adults are scarce. This study aimed to identify trends in the burden of HHD among older adults between 1990 and 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels. Using the Global Burden of Diseases study 2019 data, we assessed HHD prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates for individuals aged 60-89 years at the global, regional, and national levels and estimated their average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) between 1990 and 2019 using joinpoint regression analysis. In 2019, there were 14.35 million HHD prevalent cases, 0.85 million deaths, and 14.56 million DALYs in older adults. Between 1990 and 2019, the prevalence of HHD increased globally {AAPC, 0.38 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36, 0.41)} with decreases observed in mortality (AAPC, -0.83 [95% CI, -0.99, -0.66]) and the DALY rate (AAPC, -1.03 [95% CI, -1.19, -0.87]). This overall global trend pattern was essentially maintained for sex, age group, and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile except for non-significant changes in the prevalence of HHD in those aged 70-74 years and in the middle SDI quintile. Notably, males had a higher HHD prevalence rate. However, HHD-related mortality and the DALY rate were higher in females. The middle SDI quintile experienced the largest decreases in mortality and the DALY rate, with a non-significant decline in prevalence between 1990 and 2019. There were significant discrepancies in the HHD burden and its trends across regions and countries. In the past three decades, there has been an overall increasing trend in the prevalence of HHD among older adults worldwide despite decreasing trends in mortality and the DALY rate. Better management of hypertension, and prevention and control of HHD are needed in older adults.

The silent burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in the elderly: A global burden of disease analysis.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represents a significant health threat worldwide. The growing trend towards an aging population, along with an alarming rise in obesity and diabetes, may have significant implications for the burden of NAFLD. To assess the impact of NAFLD on the elderly. We utilised data from the Global Burden of Disease study between 2010 and 2019 to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with NAFLD in the elderly (65-89 years), stratified by region, nation, sociodemographic Index and sex. Globally, there were an estimated 228 million cases, 87,230 deaths and 1.46 million DALYs attributed to NAFLD in the elderly. Geographically, the Western Pacific region had the highest burden of NAFLD in the elderly. From 2010 to 2019, there was an increasing prevalence rate in all areas, with the most pronounced change observed in the Western Pacific region (annual percentage change (APC) +0.95%, p < 0.001). Over the study period, there was a more rapid increase in NAFLD prevalence in men (APC +0.74%, p < 0.001) than in women (APC +0.63%, p < 0.001). In most regions, death and DALYs rates have declined, with the exception of the Americas, where there was a slight increase (APC +0.25%, p = 0.002 and 0.38%, p < 0.001, respectively). Over the past decade, the burden of NAFLD in the elderly has been increasing, necessitating immediate and inclusive measures to tackle the rising burden.

Disease burden and prediction of oral cancer attributable to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019

Objective: To analyze the trend of disease burden of oral cancer attributable to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019, and predict the mortality trend of oral cancer from 2020 to 2034, providing scientific basis for formulating targeted oral cancer prevention and treatment strategy to achieve the goal of "Healthy China 2030". Methods: Using partial data on the global burden of disease in China in 2019, attributive death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) were used to describe. The trend of changes in the burden of oral cancer disease attributed to smoking was analyzed by using the Joinpoint regression model to estimate the annual average percentage change (AAPC) of age standardized mortality and DALY rates. Meanwhile, the Bayesian age-period- cohort model is used to predict oral cancer deaths and DALY trends attributed to smoking over the next 15 years. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate in China from 1990 to 2019 showed an overall upward trend, with an average annual increase of 1.49% (95%CI: 1.34%-1.65%, P<0.001) and 1.41% (95%CI: 1.24%-1.59%, P<0.001) respectively, higher than around the earth and in regions with different socio-demographic index (SDI). In 2019, 46.74% (10 584/22 642) of oral cancer deaths in China were attributed to smoking. Compared to 1990, the number of attributed deaths in 2019 increased by 293.75% (7 896/2 688), while DALY increased by 257.97% (189 039/73 280). Moreover, the growth rates of attributed deaths and DALY in males [304.95% (7 584/2 487) and 265.60% (183 349/69 033), respectively] were significantly higher than those in females [154.73% (311/201) and 133.95% (5 690/4 248), respectively] (P<0.001). The age group results showed that the proportion of deaths and DALY gradually transitioned towards the elderly (>60 years old). The expected number of deaths would increase from 10 731 in 2020 to 14 125 in 2034, with a rise of 31.63% (3 394/10 731). Simultaneously, DALY would increase from 267 064 person years in 2020 to 326 634 person years in 2034, with a rise of 22.31% (59 570/267 064). Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, the burden of oral cancer diseases attributed to smoking in China showed an increasing trend, with a higher growth rates than in the global and different SDI regions. There were differences in gender and age, and the burden of oral cancer diseases attributed to smoking in China would continue to increase in the next 15 years. It is necessary to educate on the adverse effects of tobacco consumption and to conduct vigilant oral self-examination among high-risk groups to help early detection and intervention at the same time.

The burden of rheumatoid arthritis and low back pain in North Africa and Middle East from 1990 to 2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and low back pain (LBP) are among the most prevalent musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). The need for investigation of regional and local patterns of these two MSDs seems inevitable for better policy-making. The current study presents updated results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 and reports the burden of RA and LBP in North Africa and Middle East (NAME) countries from 1990 to 2019. Incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk factors, including high body mass index, occupational ergonomic factors, and smoking, were extracted based on the GBD 2019 data. The age-standardized prevalence and mortality of RA were 120.6 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 107.0-135.7) and 0.1 (95% UI 0.1-0.2) per 100 000 population in 2019 with 28.3% (95% UI 25.5%-30.9%) increase and 7.5% (95% UI -37.5% to 32.5%) decrease since 1990, respectively. Turkey had the highest age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of RA in 2019. All RA burden measures were higher for women; however, the incidence was almost the same at ages greater than 65 years. The age-standardized prevalence and DALYs of LBP were 7668.2 (95% UI 6798.0-8636.3) and 862 (95% UI 605.5-1153.3) in 2019, which had decreased by 5.8% (95% UI -7.4% to -4.3%) and 6.0% (95% UI -7.7% to -4.2%) since 1990, respectively. Moreover, although Turkey had the highest incidence and prevalence in 1990, Iran was at the top in 2019. The regional age-standardized DALY rates due to RA and LBP attributed to smoking were 1.7 (95% UI 0.5-3.2) and 139.4 (95% UI 87.3-198.8) in 2019, respectively, which had decreased 2.2% (95% UI -19.2% to 13.7%) and 15.4% (95% UI -19.4% to -10.5%) since 1990, respectively. RA still imposes a significant burden in the NAME region as the burden measures have increased from 1990 to 2019. On the other hand, regarding LBP, a decreasing pattern was observed. Differences among the countries and between ages and genders can have implications, and the results of this study may be helpful for policy-makers in the NAME countries.

The burden of mental disorders in Mexico, 1990-2019: Mental and neurological disorders, substance use, suicides, and related somatic disorders

IntroductionMental, neurological, substance use, suicide, and related somatic disorders (MNSS, for the Spanish acronym) have a negative impact on the quality-of-life of people and the Mexican economy, but updated information is lacking. The objective of this work is to analyze the disability adjusted life years (DALYs) of the MNSS in Mexico by sex, age, state, and degree of marginalization between 1990 and 2019. MethodsThe data and methodology of the «Global Burden of Disease Group» (GBD) are used. The GBD calculates DALYs as the sum of two components: years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). Likewise, the data on the degree of marginalization from the National Population Council in Mexico are used. ResultsMNSS represented 16.3% of the disease burden in the Mexican population in 2019. The trend of the age-standardized rates of DALYs of the MNSS has increased little from 1990 to 2019. The highest increase has been for women. Mental (depression) and neurological (headache) disorders contribute the most to the disease burden among MNSS. In the interior of the country, Baja California Sur presented the highest increase in the period. DiscussionThe results show a complex panorama of the MNSS and its subtypes by sex, age groups and territory. More resources are needed to improve mental health care.

The burden of tuberculosis disease in women, Colombia 2010-2018

Objective: to estimate disability-adjusted life years in women attributable to tuberculosis in Colombia 2010-2018. Methods: A retrospective descriptive study was conducted. The following variables were studied: year of occurrence, age groups and origin. This study included 41,354 women who consulted in the hospital network and 2530 cases of mortality in women, registered in the country’s vital statistics system. Using the abbrevia¬ted methodology proposed by the World Health Organization for measuring the burden of disease BD, years of life lost, years of life with disability and years of healthy life lost by women at the subnational level were estimated. Results: The Disability-Adjusted Life Years rate for the study period was 427.2 (95% II 353-492.3) per 100,000 women. Women of reproductive age (10 to 49 years old) account for 57.9 per cent of these. Departments such as Amazonas 1,426 (725.4-2,541.4) and Guajira 1,001.1 (693.3-1,260) had the highest rates (per 100,000 inhabitants). Twelve territorial entities have an increasing burden of disease. Conclusions: The rate of disability-adjusted life years due to tuberculosis in women for nine years was high and presents subnational differences perhaps due to large social or economic gaps or deficits in institutional or programmatic capacities.

The burden of ischemic heart disease and the epidemiologic transition in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: 1990-2019.

It has been estimated that in the next decade, IHD prevalence, DALYs and deaths will increase more significantly in EMR than in any other region of the world. This study aims to provide a comprehensive description of the trends in the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) across the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2019. Data on IHD prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, DALYs attributable to risk factors, healthcare access and quality index (HAQ), and universal health coverage (UHC) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for EMR countries. The data were stratified based on the social demographic index (SDI). Information on cardiac rehabilitation was obtained from publications by the International Council of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation (ICCPR), and additional country-specific data were obtained through advanced search methods. Age standardization was performed using the direct method, applying the estimated age structure of the global population from 2019. Uncertainty intervals were calculated through 1000 iterations, and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles were derived from these calculations. The age-standardized prevalence of IHD in the EMR increased from 5.0% to 5.5% between 1990 and 2019, while it decreased at the global level. In the EMR, the age-standardized rates of IHD mortality and DALYs decreased by 11.4% and 15.4%, respectively, during the study period, although both rates remained higher than the global rates. The burden of IHD was found to be higher in males compared to females. Bahrain exhibited the highest decrease in age-standardized prevalence (-3.7%), mortality (-65.0%), and DALYs (-69.1%) rates among the EMR countries. Conversely, Oman experienced the highest increase in prevalence (14.5%), while Pakistan had the greatest increase in mortality (30.0%) and DALYs (32.0%) rates. The top three risk factors contributing to IHD DALYs in the EMR in 2019 were high systolic blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and particulate matter pollution. The trend analysis over the 29-year period (1990-2019) revealed that high fasting plasma glucose (64.0%) and high body mass index (23.4%) exhibited increasing trends as attributed risk factors for IHD DALYs in the EMR. Our findings indicate an increasing trend in the prevalence of IHD and a decrease in mortality and DALYs in the EMR. These results emphasize the need for well-planned prevention and treatment strategies to address the risk factors associated with IHD. It is crucial for the countries in this region to prioritize the development and implementation of programs focused on health promotion, education, prevention, and medical care.

Disease burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to lead exposure: A global analysis of 30 years since 1990

BackgroundExposure to lead (Pb) is associated with an increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, limited studies explored the global burden of CKD attributable to Pb exposure, especially in countries with different development levels. This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the temporal and spatial trend in the disease burden of CKD attributable to Pb exposure in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. MethodsWe used the data from Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 to estimate annual deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of CKD attributable to Pb exposure. The annual average percentage change (AAPCs) was calculated using the Joinpoint model to evaluate the changing trend of CKD ASMR and ASDR attributable to Pb exposure from 1990 to 2019. Meanwhile, age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to assess changes in the mortality of CKD attributable to Pb exposure from 1990 to 2019. ResultsGlobal ASMR for CKD attributable to Pb exposure trended upward from 1990 to 2019. ASMR and ASDR were the highest in low and low-middle SDI regions. With the APC model, we found that global mortality rates for CKD attributable to Pb exposure increased with age. The global period rate ratio showed the highest value in 2000–2004 and the lowest in 2015–2019, while the global cohort rate ratio showed the highest value in 1941–1949 and the lowest during 1986–1994. ConclusionsFrom 1990 to 2019, the global burden of CKD attributable to Pb exposure increased globally, especially in low and low-middle SDI regions, as well as the elderly. Pb exposure is still a great threat to the global burden of CKD, and the implementation of effective prevention measures to reduce Pb exposure in the environment should be continually strengthened.

Estimating disparities in breast cancer screening programs towards mortality, case fatality, and DALYs across BRICS-plus

BackgroundNumerous studies over the past four decades have revealed that breast cancer screening (BCS) significantly reduces breast cancer (BC) mortality. However, in BRICS-plus countries, the association between BCS and BC case fatality and disability are unknown. This study examines the association of different BCS approaches with age-standardized mortality, case-fatality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, as well as with other biological and sociodemographic risk variables, across BRICS-plus from a national and economic perspective.MethodsIn this ecological study applying mixed-effect multilevel regression models, a country-specific dataset was analyzed by combining data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 on female age-standardized BC mortality, incidence, and DALYs rates with information on national/regional BCS availability (against no such program or only a pilot program) and BCS type (only self-breast examination (SBE) and/or clinical breast examination (CBE) [SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE with mammographic screening availability [MM and/or SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE/mammographic with digital mammography and/or ultrasound (US) [DMM/US and/or previous tests] in BRICS-plus countries.ResultsCompared to self/clinical breast examinations (SBE/CBE) across BRICS-plus, more complex BCS program availability was the most significant predictor of decreased mortality [MM and/or SBE/CBE: − 2.64, p < 0.001; DMM/US and/or previous tests: − 1.40, p < 0.001]. In the BRICS-plus, CVD presence, high BMI, second-hand smoke, and active smoking all contributed to an increase in BC mortality and DALY rate. High-income and middle-income regions in BRICS-plus had significantly lower age-standardized BC mortality, case-fatality, and DALYs rates than low-income regions when nationwide BC screening programs were implemented.ConclusionsThe availability of mammography (digital or traditional) and BCS is associated with breast cancer burden in BRICS-plus countries, with regional variations. In light of high-quality evidence from previous causal studies, these findings further support the preventive role of mammography screening for BCS at the national level. Intervening on BCS related risk factors may further reduce the disease burden associated with BC.

Abstract P131: Global Burden Of Stroke Attributable To High Systolic Blood Pressure In 38 Oecd Countries: A Systematic Analysis For The Global Burden Of Disease Study 2019

Background: High blood pressure (HBP) emerges as the primary leading cause of death and disability among all risk factors for stroke in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. Method: This study employed the Global Burden of Disease methodology to evaluate mortality, DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Years) and YLD (Years Lived with Disability) associated with stroke attributable to HBP by age group, sex, year across the 38 OECD countries from 1990-2019. Results: The annual percentage change (APC) of deaths due to stroke attributable to HBP decreased by 22% (557,114-436,389) between 1990-2019, while DALY decreased by 26% (10,970,202-8,087,473) and YLD increased by 19% (1,451,842- 1,727,949). Among the OECD countries, Turkey exhibited the highest APC in deaths at 113% (11,476- 24,440). The highest APC in deaths was observed in the 95+ age group reaching 170% (13,578- 36,655) between 1990-2019. Conclusion: Despite a decreasing burden of stroke due to HBP, OECD countries continue to face significant mortality and DALY rates, necessitating ongoing efforts to reduce the burden.

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Although non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remain the leading causes of mortality and disability worldwide, little comprehensive or recent evidence of the burden of NCDs among adolescents and young adults in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions is available. We aimed to report population shifts in people aged 10-24 years and their NCD burden from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. We retrieved data from GBD 2019 for people aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions from 1990 to 2019. We presented population shifts and analysed deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for NCDs. We also quantified the associations of deaths and DALYs with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and Universal Health Coverage (UHC) effective coverage index using Spearman correlation and linear regression analyses. Percentages are reported to 1 decimal place and rates are reported to 2 decimal places. In 2019, there were 559·2 million young people aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia region and 335·0 million in the Western Pacific region; India and China remained the countries with greatest number of this age group. In 1990-2019, India had an absolute increase of 139·4 million adolescents, while China had a decrease of 134·3 million. In 2019, NCDs accounted for 27·3% (95% uncertainty interval 25·1 to 29·2) and 34·6% (33·5 to 36·1) of total deaths, and 49·8% (45·3 to 54·4) and 65·1% (60·6 to 69·3) of total DALYs in the South-East Asia and the Western Pacific regions, respectively. Neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and mental disorders were the leading causes of NCD burden in 42 countries. Kiribati had the highest rates of deaths (62·82 [50·77 to 76·11] per 100 000 population), YLLs (4364·73 [3545·04 to 5275·63] per 100 000 population), and DALYs (9368·73 [7713·65 to 11340·99] per 100 000 population) for NCDs, whereas Australia (6976·51 [5044·46 to 9190·01] per 100 000 population) and New Zealand (6716·81 [4827·25 to 8827·69] per 100 000 population) had the largest rates of YLDs due to NCDs. From 1990 to 2019 across both regions, the rate of death due to NCDs declined by over a third (-32·8% [-41·1 to -22·9] in the South-East Asia region and -40·0% [-48·6 to -30·4] in the Western Pacific region), and DALYs decreased by about 12% (-12·0% [-16·8 to -7·7] in the South-East Asia region and -12·8% [-17·7 to -8·7] in the Western Pacific region), whereas the proportion of NCD burden relative to all-cause burden increased (45·7% [32·9 to 61·7] for deaths and 41·2% [35·2 to 48·8] for DALYs in the South-East Asia region; 11·8% [7·1 to 21·5] for deaths and 18·2% [14·6 to 22·0] for DALYs in the Western Pacific region). The rate of deaths and DALYs due to NCDs decreased monotonically alongside increases in SDI (rs=-0·57 [95% CI -0·81 to -0·32] for deaths and rs=-0·30 [-0·61 to 0·03] for DALYs). The rate of deaths (rs=-0·89 [95% CI -0·97 to -0·80]) and DALYs (rs=-0·67 [-0·93 to -0·41]) due to NCDs also decreased alongside increases in the UHC effective coverage index. Specific preventive and health service measures are needed for adolescents and young adults in countries with different levels of socioeconomic development to reduce the burden from NCDs. National Natural Science Foundation of China. For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Diabetes burden, trends, and inequalities in western pacific region, 1990–2019: A population-based study

AimsThe aim was to describe the diabetes regional burden, trends, and inequalities in the Western Pacific region. MethodsThe Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to evaluate the prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in diabetes in the Western Pacific region from 1990 to 2019. Cross-country inequalities in the DALY rates of diabetes were estimated between 1990 and 2019. ResultsThe age-standardized incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the Western Pacific region increased from 2.6 to 3.8 per 100,000 population (AAPC, 0.97 [95% CI 0.84 to 1.1]) and from 174.8 to 207.3 per 100,000 population (AAPC, 0.63 [95% CI 0.48 to 0.77]) between 1990 and 2019, respectively. The most substantial increase in the incidence of T1DM and T2DM was found in the groups aged 70 years and older (AAPC, 2.38 [95% CI 2.19 to 2.58]) and 15–49 years (AAPC, 1.58 [95% CI 1.43 to 1.72]) from 1990 to 2019, respectively. Age-standardized DALYs for T1DM decreased but those for T2DM increased between 1990 and 2019. The relative concentration index of DALYs in T1DM and T2DM changed from 0.11 in 1990 to −0.08 in 2019 and from 0.03 in 1990 to −0.04 in 2019, respectively. ConclusionsOver three decades, diabetes incidence in the Western Pacific region rose substantially, with inequalities among countries. The burden shifted from higher to lower sociodemographic index countries. Diabetes remains a public health challenge, especially among young populations. Urgent interventions for prevention and early detection are crucial.