The development of synthetic fuels will permit the use of low-quality fossil fuels such as cow and heavy-gravity, high-sulfur crude oils. But development will cost money, and lots of it and it can never go full tilt until there is a national energy policy that recognizes that all fuel costs must be substantially higher than they have ever been in the past. Introduction Any meaningful discussion of the current status of synthetic fuels requires a full understanding of certain facts; namely, that the U. S. was faced with an energy shortage even before the Mid-East embargo, that the shortage is largely one of clean or low-pollution energy sources, and that past concepts of the real cost of energy are largely fallacious. Unfortunately, even dirty sources of energy will be in short supply since recent environmental legislation has militated against the development of such resources. Pricing gas and oil on a cost-of-service basis without recognition of their replacement costs or even their intrinsic value has completely distorted the value that has been placed on these commodities in the past. Similarly, the damage to the environment from the use of dirty fuels or from the operation of dirty sources of energy has never been recognized as a real cost of such supplies. As the public and government have become aware of the seriousness of the energy problem, there has been a proliferation of studies by government, industry groups, and private companies that, taken as a whole, leads to confusion and has limited value. It is interesting to note that the Interior and Insular Committee of the U. S. Senate has specifically reviewed some of the more important studies and has questioned the value of almost all of them. Many of these studies assume the continued, almost unlimited, availability of clean fuels at prices similar to those enjoyed in the past. Many assume the immediate availability of technical developments that in actual fact will require many years to bring to commercial application, and in addition they radically underestimate the cost of implementing such programs. Probably most unfortunate of all, few of them bring into Probably most unfortunate of all, few of them bring into perspective the timing problem in any corrective perspective the timing problem in any corrective action that might be taken. We are hopeful that the government will set forth a plan to develop a national energy policy that will bring some order to the situation and permit a reasonable program to evolve to minimize the impact of the energy crisis. It is generally agreed that synthetic fuels will be an important contributor to our energy needs during the next 2 decades. It should be understood, however, that during this period the directly consumable natural fossil fuels namely, petroleum, natural gas, and coal will continue to be the major source of supply. The early use of synthetic fuels will be largely confined to highly specialized applications. Ultimately, however, we expect that synthetic fuels will be important to permit utilization of low-quality fossil fuels, particularly coal and heavy-gravity, high-sulfur crude particularly coal and heavy-gravity, high-sulfur crude oil and residuums. Unfortunately there has been considerable confusion about the potential contribution of synthetic fuels. The energy industry has indulged in much wishful thinking as to their early availability and cost in its zeal to find a solution to the serious energy shortage and still be responsive to the growing concern for the deterioration of the environment. JPT P. 139
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