Direction Of Technological Change Research Articles

The rate and direction of technological change and wealth and income inequalities in advanced countries

The paper uses Schumpeter's legacy tools to analyze the specific and distinctive effects of the rates and directions of technological change on the two distinct ingredients of the income distribution – wage and wealth inequality. It argues that the trend towards rising wage and wealth inequalities in high-income countries could be limited by the Schumpeterian creative destruction brought by the introduction of radical technological change with clear labor-intensive and capital-saving biases. Radical and labor-intensive, job-enriching technological change can contribute to decreasing wealth inequality and increasing both the share of labor in income and its even distribution across workers, thereby reducing wage and income inequality generally. Empirical evidence from a large sample of advanced high-income countries over the period 1995 to 2011 supports the hypothesis that rapid rates of introduction of radical and labor-intensive technological change are a valid antidote to income inequality in advanced countries.

Demand-pull, technology-push, and the direction of technological change

This paper studies the impact of Demand-pull (DP) and Technology-push (TP) on growth, innovation, and the factor bias of technological change in a two-layer network of input–output (market) and patent citation (innovation) links among 307 6-digit US manufacturing industries in 1977–2012. Two types of TP and DP are distinguished: (1) DP and TP are between-layer spillovers when market demand shocks pull innovation and innovation pushes market growth. (2) Within-layer DP arises if downstream users trigger upstream innovation and growth, while TP effects spill over from up- to downstream industries. The results support between- and within-layer TP: Innovation spillovers from upstream industries drive market growth and innovation. Within the market, upstream supply shocks stimulate growth, but this effect differs across industries. DP is not supported but shows a factor bias favoring labor, while TP comes with a shift towards non-production work. The results are strongest after the 2000s and shed light on the drivers of recent technological change and its factor bias.

Zmiana technologiczna jako wymiar bezpieczeństwa ekonomicznego państw Grupy Wyszehradzkiej

The contemporary economic security of states depends more and more heavily on technological factors. The paper provides a comparative study covering the trade of the Visegrád Group with a primary purpose to explore directions of technological change, revealed in the structure of their exports, their likely causes, and consequences. The research problem was positioned in an interdisciplinary methodological perspective, merging critical security studies, international political economy, international economics, and new public governance. The obtained results prove characteristics of V4 economies typical of dependent capitalism and confirm the structural challenge of foreign technological guidance.

The Economics of the Frugal Direction of Technological Change: New Paradigm Frame, Induced Direction Models and Demand Side Approaches

The Economics of the Frugal Direction of Technological Change: New Paradigm Frame, Induced Direction Models and Demand Side Approaches

ДИНАМІКА І СТРУКТУРА ІНВЕСТИЦІЙ В УКРАЇНІ – «ПАСТКА ДИВЕРГЕНТНОСТІ» ТЕХНОЛОГІЧНОГО МАЙБУТНЬОГО

The globalized economy is entering a difficult period of technological transformation in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Studies of leading international organizations (UNIDO, UNCTAD, WEF) on the conceptual directions of technological change and the readiness of different countries around the world for future changes have shown their significant stratification. The main drivers of future production are: “technology and innovation,” “human capital,” “global trade,” “investment,” “institutional environment” and “financial resources.” Ukraine has been identified as an “immature” country, i.e. one that is not ready for future technological changes and needs increased attention to the transformation of the institutional environment, technology and innovation, access to finance, industrial structure, and so on. The “immaturity” of the Ukrainian economy is due to the crisis of investment activity in 2010-2021, when the share of capital investment in GDP averaged only 15.5%. The structure of foreign and capital investments by type of industrial activity is dominated by investments in low-tech industries. The share of foreign and capital investment in education and health care does not exceed 1–1.5% of the total, which in the medium term may reduce the quality of human capital. Given the outlined trends in the medium term in Ukraine there is a high probability of forming a “divergence trap” of technological development with global trends in the formation of the digital economy and Industry 4.0. In view of this, Ukraine needs to intensify state regulation in the field of investment, develop its own unique strategy for future production and economic transformation. At the same time, a double approach is possible: with the transition of some industries to the latest paradigm of technological growth, and others to the modernization of traditional technologies.

Demographics and Automation

Abstract We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across U.S. commuting zones. We also document more automation innovation in countries undergoing faster aging. Our directed technological change model predicts that the response of automation technologies to aging should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation and that productivity should improve and the labor share should decline relatively in industries that are more amenable to automation. The evidence supports all four of these predictions.

The Rate and Direction of Technological Change and Income Inequality in Advanced Countries

The Rate and Direction of Technological Change and Income Inequality in Advanced Countries

Основные фонды Главтранснефти: резервуары

The article presents a historical overview of one of the most important groups of fixed assets of the Main Production Office for Oil Transportation and Supply (Glavtransneft) – tanks. The main tendencies of tank construction development in the USSR and the USA in 1970–1990 are presented. The analysis of technical indicators and parameters of tank designs in our country and abroad was performed. The issues of ensuring reliable and safe operation of tanks of different types, as well as the directions of technological change in the field of long-term growth of the tank farm in the main oil pipeline system are considered.

Analysis of agricultural trade in China based on the theory of factor endowment

Purpose. The purpose of the paper is to present the results of the study of agricultural trade in China based on the theory of factor endowment and to develop a policy recommendation for the intensification of agricultural trade based on technological progress.
 Methodology / approach. This paper uses the methods of economic theory and comparative analysis to study the development of agricultural products trade in China; analysis the advantages of developing agricultural products trade in China by using comparative advantage theory; and econometric analysis to study the relationship between volume of agrarian trade and agricultural labor force, capital and land resources.
 Results. This paper uses time series data to analyze the three elements of capital, labor and land, and the development of agricultural trade in China. According to the established data model, it is obviously that China’s agricultural production of land factor endowment constraints are obvious, labor factor endowment is abundant but also facing the problem of increasing costs, labor personnel gradually decline. In this case, technological progress is more critical to the cultivation and maintenance of comparative advantage of agricultural products. The government should guide the direction of technological changes, technical support, capital support (material capital and human capital); and promote the rapid development of China’s agricultural trade.
 Originality / scientific novelty. Author’s developed econometric model is very useful in empirical assessment for the China agricultural products trade development, and it also provides new decisions for China to develop agricultural trade. Accordingly, the proposed method can provide an answer to the question of how to develop traditional agriculture in the context of rapid economic changes, and put forward more practical countermeasures.
 Practical value / significance. The main proposals can be used by the Government of China to formulate better agricultural trade policies and achieve rapid economic growth and increasing farmer incomes.

Why Did College Wage Premium Growth Slow Down? An Analysis with Endogenous Supply of College Workers

We look into the reasons for the significant deceleration of college wage premium growth since 2000 with a planner decision model in which the supply of college workers is endogenously determined. By counterfactual simulations, we find that: (1) the slower skill-biased technological change and faster skill-neutral productivity progress in both routine and manual task occupations account for two-third of the deceleration; (2) the slower skill-biased technological change in cognitive task occupations only explains less than one-tenth of the deceleration prior 2014; (3) the change in cost shifter of college worker supply attributes about a quarter of the deceleration. Furthermore, we show that the decline in college workers’ mean quality is a mechanism with a moderate impact on the deceleration. Our findings suggest that even the overall technological change was becoming more biased in favor of skills, the average college wage premium growth could still slow down. Also, if the demand reversal and automation in non-cognitive task occupations are the necessary directions of technological change, then the deceleration is somewhat an inevitable outcome of technological progress.

Total factor productivity, catch-up and technological congruence in Italy, 1861–2010

In the catch-up literature, more attention has been paid to the rate rather than the direction of technological change. This paper presents and implements a novel methodology to identify and measure the effects of the direction of technological change in terms of technological congruence and its effects on total factor productivity (TFP). Evolution of the match between technology direction and the idiosyncrasies of its endowments and factor markets is a key factor in country growth. We elaborate its implications for the theory of induced technological change, and apply it to an empirical analysis of Italy’s economic history from 1861 to 2010. The results confirm the important role of the introduction of biased technological change in the assessment of the levels of technological congruence and TFP, and for supporting the long-run convergence of an early-late-comer. N13 N14 O33

Quantifying technological change as a combinatorial process

Technological change plays a critical role in industrial- and societal development. As a consequence, modelling, measuring and monitoring the rate and direction of technological change has been extensively studied. However, there is to-date no scalable, cross-domain, and data source agnostic quantitative indicator for technological change that considers a combinatorial process of invention and technology development. This paper develops and empirically tests a network-based method that takes a combinatorial view of technological development as underlying rationale and provides a quantitative indicator for technological change. Unlike prior research, the proposed method allows for the simultaneous inclusion of multiple and diverse types of data sources, i.e. publications, patents, and projects and it uses text-mining analyses based on co-occurrences of terms over time. The novel method proposed here goes beyond reliance on domain experts building custom sets of taxonomies, is applicable across different technological domains, and permits a temporal analysis of changes across years, industries, and countries. This is illustrated using a large database of worldwide bioenergy research and development (R&D) records. Findings include the detection of biofuel generations in the data before they were first mentioned as such in literature. Implications for research, industry and policy are also discussed.

KAJIAN PERUBAHAN HUKUM DAN PEREKONOMIAN PADA ERA PERDAGANGAN BEBAS DI SEKTOR PERTANIAN

Abstract National economic development has shown the transformation of the economic structure from agriculture to industry, as well as with the development of the law. Economic indicators showed decline in the share of the agricultural sector as well as an increasing share of the industrial sector in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can be bukti.Pertanian in Indonesia is at crossroads jalan.Sebagai supporting the livelihood of millions of Indonesian society, the agricultural sector requires a strong economic growth and rapid .Sektor also need to be one of the main components in the program and the government's strategy to alleviate structural kemiskinan.Transformasi between sectors, it appears that with increasing per capita income, the agricultural sector has decreased the share of the GDP, while the industrial sector on the contrary experienced peningkatan.Kebanyakan developing countries today this has been agreed that the development of industry and agriculture as much as possible to walk semultan. Agriculture provides a market for manufactured goods, feed the urban population, be a source of labor and capital to the industrial sector, as well as generate foreign exchange for the import of machinery and raw materials required by the intermediate industri.Prioritas sector policies to increase food production can be done through the use teknologi.Tipe and direction of technological change is influenced by market forces and pemerintah.Selain research funded research in the country, the source of technological progress is a transfer from outside negeri.Program-local research programs in countries developing in some ways is not replaceable by technology the foreign research results.Keywords: Structural Transformation, GDP, Agricultural Sector, Industrial Secto

The paradox of value, directed technical change, and the relative abundance of the chemical elements

Classical economists used the “paradox of value” that water is essential to life yet cheap, while diamonds were inessential to life yet dear, to explain how long-run supply is affected by relative abundance. This paper expands upon this theory by developing and estimating a directed technological change (DTC) model to analyze the relative abundance correlations of relative prices, world production, and R&D, as well as their growth rates, for the 87 chemical elements present in the Earth's crust. We show that these imply that the elasticity of substitution between resources and the elasticity of R&D with respect to industry revenues are such that more abundant resources have had larger markets, causing R&D to be biased towards more abundant resources. This explains why the paradox that water has been cheap while diamonds dear has held for centuries, and possibly even for millenia, even though prices have been falling relative to per capita income and per capita production has been rising for nearly all resources.

Induced technology hypothesis. Acemoglu and Marx on deskilling (skill replacing) innovations

ABSTRACT The paper hypothesizes that the worldwide market-friendly political/institutional transformations of the early 1980s had an impact on the direction of technological change. Their crucial effect was to make an integrated global labor market politically feasible, which raised demand for what eventually became global value chains and production networks, requiring in turn the further development of IT to lower communication and information costs. IT investment and demand for high skills, driven up by the large set up costs of global networks, eventually stagnated once these networks were in place making the expansion of low-skill employment around the world less dependent on their services.

To Everything There Is a Season: Carbon Pricing, Research Subsidies, and the Transition to Fossil-Free Energy

AbstractWe develop a climate policy model with directed technological change (DTC) in the energy sector. The model delivers both analytical and numerical results that give a clear understanding of ...

A long-term comparative analysis of the direction and congruence of technological change

AbstractTechnological congruence identifies the coherence between the direction of technological change and input costs in an economy and measures its effects on Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The search for technological congruence is constrained by the systemic characteristics of the countries where it takes place with special attention to the types of industrial relations and the role of the labor force in the accumulation of technological knowledge. Constrained technological congruence enables to interpret the heterogeneous long-term evidence of five advanced countries. The analysis confirms that the direction of technological change and its effects are heterogeneous across countries and time and reflect the specific conditions of their internal and external labor markets and of their knowledge generation processes.

How to Accelerate Green Technology Diffusion? An Agent-based Approach to Directed Technological Change with Coevolving Absorptive Capacity

The window of opportunity for effective climate change mitigation is closing. Hence, it is decisive to unterstand how to accelerate the diffusion of climate friendly technologies. Path dependence of technological change is an explanation for sluggish diffusion even if a technology is superior in the long run. This paper studies the determinants of diffusion, learning and the coevolution of innovation and hetergeneous absorptive capacity. I show how the effectiviness of different market based climate policies depends on the type and strength of diffusion barriers. I introduce a macroeconomic agent-based model that is an eco-technology extended version Eurace@unibi model. Technology is heterogeneous by type (green or brwon). Firms choose between types when acquiring capital goods and build up type-specific technological know-how that is needed to exploit the productive potential of capital. Path dependence is operationalized as accumulated diffusion barriers taking the form of inferior technical performance of supplied green capital and type-specific know-how of adopters. The barriers interrelate with positive feedback loops from market induced innovation dynamics and learning by doing, and analyze how these mechanisms explain path dependence and the emerging macroeconomic patterns of technology diffusion. Environmental taxes can outweigh a lower technical performance and subsidies perform better if lacking capabilities hinder firms to adopt a sufficiently mature technology.

Directed Technological Change & Cross-Country Income Differences: A Quantitative Analysis

The first step in understanding international income differences is measuring supplies of various factors of production and their productivity. Recent work suggests that these calculations should treat workers of different skill levels as imperfect substitutes. However, under this approach, it has been challenging to compute skill-specific productivity levels for a large sample of economies. In this paper, we use a model of endogenous directed technological change together with a new data set on labor force composition to construct measures of productivity for workers in three distinct skill categories for 68 countries over the period of 1910 - 2010. We find that rich countries use labor of all skill categories more efficiently; however, in the absence of a technology adoption wedge, poor countries would, in fact, be more efficient than developed economies at using low-skill labor. This depressed low-skill productivity is responsible for large output loses. Our estimates also imply that after 1950 the world technology frontier expanded much faster for college-educated workers than for those with lower skill sets. This technology diffused to many countries, allowing even the less developed ones to experience a relatively robust growth of high-skill-specific productivity. Their GDP growth failed to reflect that because they have very few workers in the higher skilled category.

Patent portfolio analysis of cities: statistics and maps of technological inventiveness

ABSTRACTCities can be considered as engines of the knowledge-based economy, because they are the primary sites of knowledge production activities that subsequently shape the rate and direction of technological change and economic growth. Patents provide rich information to analyse the knowledge specialization of specific places, such as technological details and information on inventors and entities involved. The technology codes attributed at the level of individual patent documents can be used to indicate the diversity and scope of the knowledge claims underlying a specific invention. In this study we introduce tools for portfolio analysis in terms of patents that provide insights into the technological specialization of cities. The mapping and analysis of patent portfolios of cities exploits data derived from the Unites States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and dedicated tools (at https://leydesdorff.net/software/patents/). The results allow policy makers and other stakeholders to identify promising areas of further knowledge development, including smart specialization strategies.