The development of residual stresses in a hybrid α-SiC lining/CrMoV steel jacket gun barrel during shrink fitting of the jacket over the lining is studied using a probabilistic finite element analysis. Particular attention is given to understanding the development of the axial compressive stress in the ceramic lining, since this stress (if sufficiently high) can prevent lining failure caused by formation and growth of circumferential cracks near the barrel ends. To quantify the effect of variability in various design, material and process parameters on the magnitude and the distribution of the axial residual stress, a probabilistic structural analysis approach, known as the advanced mean value (AMV) method, is used, enabling determination of the cumulative distribution function for failure of the lining. The results obtained are validated using the adaptive importance sampling (AIS) method, an efficient direct statistical sampling technique. Lastly, the corresponding sensitivity factors which quantify the effect of variability in each parameter on the magnitude of axial residual stresses in the ceramic lining are computed. The results indicate that the loss of the compressive axial stress in the lining near the barrel ends is affected to the greatest extent by the magnitude of the friction coefficient at the lining/barrel interface.