Direct Military Intervention Research Articles

A decisive factor? Pro-government external interventions in civil wars

Civil wars have been the most prevalent type of armed conflicts post-World War II. Despite the internal nature of such conflicts, foreign assistance is frequently provided to one of the parties involved, with official governments being the most frequent beneficiaries. This study employs extensive empirical evidence to analyze how external involvement in support of government forces influences the outcome of civil wars. Drawing on the bargaining model of war, a civil war is portrayed as a continuous process where the parties constantly reassess their chances of success based on individual battle outcomes. One-sided foreign intervention complicates this evaluation by exacerbating power and information asymmetries inherent to internal conflicts, leading to increased uncertainty about the opponent’s capabilities and intentions, as well as doubts about their ability to credibly commit to peace agreements. Using Cox proportional hazards model, the author finds that external pro-government support primarily serves to sustain the recipient’s ability to continue fighting rather than significantly enhance its chances of victory in a civil war. Furthermore, the impact of such support varies depending on the type of intervention: indirect assistance is associated with a reduced likelihood of the opposition prevailing, whereas direct military intervention does not have a statistically significant influence on the outcome.

Military Intervention in Politics

The Military exhibits discipline and is organised by a chain of command system from superiors to subordinates. In liberal democratic systems where democracy is deep-seated and the existence of vibrant civil society and elected democratic institutions with very sophisticated political culture keep military force within its determined ambit and thus restrain the military from meddling with politics. The military remains under the control of the civilian authority. The influence of military authority has been trammelled by the all-pervasive legitimacy of a democratic system and a very enriched level of political culture. So reasonable possibility of a military coup or direct military intervention in this system is almost eclipsed. Contrastingly the dearth of democratic elements and low level of political culture in the countries of the Middle East, Latin America, and some countries of Southeast Asia, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar have turned them vulnerable to military coups and frequent intervention of the military in the political domain. Lack of social cohesion, political instability, political and administrative corruption, a vicious circle of poverty, the existence of extremist and separatist groups, and religious fundamentalism provide a conducive atmosphere for military intrusion in politics.

СССР в гражданских войнах в странах третьего мира во второй половине 1970-х гг. (на примере Анголы и Афганистана)

Introduction. One of the features of the Cold War was the movement of the rivalry of the superpowers into local armed conflicts and civil wars that took place on the territory of other states, mainly the Third World. The article examines the process of the involvement of the Soviet Union in the second half of the 1970s in the civil wars in Angola and Afghanistan. The policy of the USSR in armed conflicts outside the zone of its military-political influence has often been the subject of scientific research, but it has rarely been subjected to comparative analysis, and the authors make such an attempt, which is the novelty of the study. Methods and materials. The main method of the study is the method of comparative analysis (the actions of the USSR in 1975–1979 during the conflict in Angola and Soviet actions in the same period in Afghanistan are compared); the authors rely on documents, memoirs, and previous scientific works. Analysis. The first part of the article examines the process of the USSR’s involvement in the civil war in Angola, which began there soon after gaining independence, from the diplomatic recognition of the People’s Republic of Angola to the dispatch of Soviet military specialists. The second part of the article is devoted to the development of events in Afghanistan after the April 1978 revolution and Soviet involvement in them. Results. The authors conclude that the line adopted by the Soviet Union in relation to the military confrontation in Angola (financial, military, and other assistance, the dispatch of weapons, and military specialists) was ultimately more successful than the line implemented in relation to the civil war in Afghanistan in the form of direct military intervention by the Soviet army and its participation in the conflict outside the country. Authors contribution. T.V. Rabush described and analyzed the development of diplomatic relations between the USSR and Angola and with Afghanistan. R.A. Solovyev examined the military aspects of Soviet-Angolan and Soviet-Afghan cooperation (supply of weapons, sending military advisers, etc.). The research concept, conclusions, and literary editing of the text were carried out jointly.

The Impact of the Internationalization of the Libyan Crisis on the Future of the Political Settlement

The internationalization of the Libyan crisis and its accompanying militarization of the conflict have played a vital role in hindering to reach a comprehensive political settlement solution in Libya. The increasing international greediness in the Libyan energy resources and the geopolitical importance of the Libyan State led to the involvement of many international and regional powers in this crisis and transformed the Libyan crisis into “proxy war”. Moreover, the Turkish direct military intervention in the Libyan crisis is considered as one of the main constraints facing the international and regional efforts to settle the Libyan crisis as a result of the Turkish insistence on its military existence in Libya to preserve its national interests in Eastern Mediterranean. So, the scenario of the continuing dispute over the legitimacy between the Libyan factions and the transformation of the Libyan crisis into a geopolitical dilemma, will be the closest to reality.

Applications of Realism and Idealism in foreign policy (American foreign policy as a model)

The study aims at identifying the most prominent features of idealistic and realistic American foreign policy through highlighting three Arab issues, namely the American occupation of Iraq, the American position on the Syrian Libyan uprisings. To achieve this goal, the study used the decision-making approach, and the comparative approach in accordance with their relation to the nature of the case-study. 
 It is revealed that there is a difference in US foreign policy towards each issue separately, and that there is a difference in managing the issue itself. This is related to the difference in the personal aspects of the American president in that period, and the idealistic or realistic tendencies that governed his vision.
 The occupation of Iraq in 2003 could be seen as indicators of realism in US foreign policy. With the succession of US administrations, those realistic indicators changed to ideal ones after the US withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, and the attempt to establish normal relations with Iraq and focus on developing the strategic partnership between the two countries.
 The American position on the Libyan revolution also varied between realism after the direct military intervention in to eliminate Muammar Gaddafi’s regime, and idealism through the presentation of the Obama’s administration to programs and plans related to issues of democratic transition, human rights, development of informal organizations and the provision of necessary support to them, and the establishment of Trump administration high-level diplomatic activity on Libya in mid-2020 to intensify efforts to stabilize the political situation in Libya. In addition, the positions of the US administration have fluctuated on the Syrian revolution of 2011. There are realistic features, most notably the operation that the Trump administration directed at the Syrian army’s Shayrat Airbase in April 2017, and ideal features represented by the Obama administration’s attempts not to directly interfere in the Syrian revolution and to stay away from military action, and overlooking Russia’s incursion into Syria to avoid the United States of America entering new wars, or getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.

The Ukraine/Russia conflict: Geopolitical and international business strategies

AbstractThe Ukraine and Russian conflict is one of the most pressing current global business issues. It has become a political and social issue that is influencing business practices around the world. While the topic is popular in the mainstream business press, there has been relatively little academic work on the topic. To address this gap, this article discusses the impact of the conflict on international business in terms of the perception by society about Ukrainian or Russian business activities. This means highlighting how a conflict can involve direct military intervention but also social interaction. This article reveals that there are many effects on global business stemming from the Ukraine–Russian conflict many of which are currently known, but others will be known in the future. Managerial implications are stated in the article that highlights the cultural and social impact of the crisis as well as future research suggestions for international business researchers that stress the importance of the conflict.

Precedent, Path Dependency, and Reasoning by Analogy

This essay addresses the strategic implications of the Russo–Ukrainian War as it pertains to relations between China and the US, especially with respect to how this conflict may inform prospective developments across the Taiwan Strait. I pursue this question under three topics: the influence of precedents, path dependency, and reasoning by analogy. The war in Ukraine has interrupted Washington’s intention to pivot to Asia to focus on containment of a rising China, and it has also caused Moscow and Beijing to align more closely. Finally, it may have made the direct military intervention of the US in a possible future crisis involving Taiwan less likely.

Autocracy promotion in Russia’s foreign policy:

Russia’s influence in its Near Abroad (called “Bližkoe zarubeže” in Russian) has created a permissive zone, in which the countries within that area can ignore their democratic commitments being aware that their loyalty to Russia can protect them against any possible interference of the US and the EU. The analysis of bilateral relations between Armenia and Russia on one side, and between Russia and Belarus on the other, has led to the identification of the four models of autocracy promotion: spontaneous emulation, hard power efforts (mainly concerning military intervention), rewards (primarily regarding economic assistance) and negative sanctions (or blackmailing). A combination of rewards and punishments has proved to be the most frequent tactic used by the Kremlin, which has also been facilitated by Armenia and Belarus’s weak linkage and leverage with Western democracy promoters. Russia’s “conservative” diplomacy, which has followed a realist approach, has not resulted in a rigorous autocratic promotion policy, but the Belarusian and Armenian cases demonstrate that in these two (non-democratic) regimes (and also in those of Central Asia) the presence of Russia is stronger than in the democratic ones, such as the Baltic States. Russia’s “sanctions” against Belarus have been less than those directed against Armenia, owing mainly to the former country’s proximity to Russia in the cultural arena and the strategic geopolitical location of Belarus in Eastern Europe. Armenia, on the other hand, has also been subject to direct military intervention by Russia, which was however limited to the first Artsakh war

External support in armed conflicts: Introducing the UCDP external support dataset (ESD), 1975–2017

In this article, we present the most up-to-date, fine-grained, global dataset on external support in armed conflicts: the UCDP External Support Dataset (ESD). The dataset encompasses data on states and non-state actors as both supporters and recipients and provides detailed information on the type of support provided to warring parties in armed conflicts between 1975 and 2017. We use it to highlight three broader trends in the provision of external support: (1) a dramatic increase in the number of external supporters, (2) a larger share of pro-government interventions, and (3) the rise of direct military intervention as the predominant mode of external support. In conclusion, we identify several avenues worthy of future inquiry that could significantly improve our understanding of external support in armed conflicts.

The OSCE, Ukraine, and peace process

At the beginning of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, the OSCE acted unexpectedly promptly for an organization deeply divided for years. Although the revitalization of its relatively autonomous institutions and mechanisms (that did not require prior consensus) failed to produce uncontested evidence to inform collective decisions, the deployment of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission raised the threshold for resuming violence. The Normandy group (France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine) became the main platform for generating political solutions. The Trilateral Contact Group (the special representative of the OSCE Chairperson, Russia, and Ukraine) proved instrumental for translating these solutions into practical measures. These activities fueled expectations of consolidation of the peace process in spite of the obstacles faced by the OSCE operations, such as their limited mandate, restrictions to the freedom of movement, and inability to verify the withdrawal of weapons or enforce ceasefire and disengagement agreements. However, the ultimate failure of the Minsk peace process in early 2022 can hardly be attributed to these shortcomings. It was the increasing disagreement between Russia and Ukraine on a number of central issues of the peace process, such as the sequence of steps to implement the agreed measures or the engagement of the separatist regions in talks with Kiev, that undermined political process, adversely affected the OSCE operations, and eroded the fragile consensus. Despite the temporary revitalization of the political process in late 2019 and in 2020, the escalation of the situation around Ukraine in 2021 – early 2022 degenerated into a direct military intervention by Russia and resulted in the termination of all consensus-based OSCE operations in Ukraine.

Lobiranje kao strateška komunikacija u praksi - kruna separatističkog pokreta na Kosovu i Metohiji

Strategic communication is one of the expressions of the soft power and represents an instrument in the political and security achievement of national interests. One of the strategic communication forms is lobbying. Potential lobbying of foreign policy is significant, as it could be realized through direct military intervention for support of interest group goals. The paper presents gained results of interest representation of Albanian interest groups regarding U.S. foreign policy as support of the achievement of the separatists' goal in the form of the Republic of Kosovo. Using content analysis and conclusions synthesis, the paper presents results that indicate effective and productive effects of applied interest representation strategy. It is a suggested that base of common interest should focus on political, economic and security interests, and institutional preconditions for effective lobbying of U.S. institutions. Conclusions indicate that organized and strategically planed lobbying approach to U.S. institutions can bring very good results.

The Dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Emergence of the CIS System, and Ethnic Disputes

Purpose: It was self-evident that nationalism emerged as the Soviet Union, which had the largest number of ethnic groups on the planet, disbanded. The result of the dominant ethnic group s failure to maintain equal relations without discrimination between ethnic groups as it integrates minorities nationally is inevitably an expression of conflict in the democratization process. The purpose of this paper is to study what ethnic conflicts have occurred in the region since the formation of the CIS. Method: In the past, Ukraine and Georgia, newly independent countries in the Soviet region, faced the prob-lem of separation of minorities domestically. The separation of Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine, the Abkhazia conflict and the South Ossetia conflict in Georgia are examples. Therefore, I analyze these examples in this pa-per. Results: In Donetsk and Luhansk states of Ukraine, Russia directly intervened in the claims of separation and subsequent civil war, including military mobilization and support, and in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia demanded separation from Georgia. Through the conflict, Russia strengthened its influence in these regions. Conclusion: The separation between the Ukrainian and Georgian conflicts from other conflicts in the Eastern Europe of the post-Cold War was that there was direct military intervention by Russia, which escalated the con-flict between the United States and Russia. In the future, Russia is expected to actively respond to the threat of Russia s security due to nationalist political movements of ethnic minorities within the CIS.

A Comparative Comparison of the U.S. and Russian Foreign Policy and their Behavior Patterns in the Syrian Crisis

The Syrian crisis has been one of the most critical developments in the international system since 2011, involving most international and regional actors. This crisis has undoubtedly been one of the most important arenas of confrontation between great powers such as the United States and Russia. This article examines the United States and Russia's behavioral patterns and policies in the Syrian crisis since 2011. It is hypothesized that Syria has strategic and vital interests for the United States and Russia. Therefore, a new arena has been created for competition between these two and other allies. The findings show that U.S. foreign policy in the Syrian crisis is based in its interests and other allies' interests, but pursuing unilateral policies and direct military intervention has been hampered by a number of international issues. Thus, they have to deal mainly with the developments in Syria indirectly. On the other hand, the situation is different for the Russians, and they have a maximum presence in Syria by forming alliances with actors such as Iran. They believe that the fall of the Assad government seriously endangers their interests, and therefore they try to prevent Opponents of the Assad government from gaining power in various ways.Keywords: Foreign Policy, Middle East, Syrian Crisis, United States, Russia

The Abkhazian Conflict: A Study on Self-determination and International Intervention

The Crimean conflict in 2014 followed in many respects the pattern of Russia’s previous interventions in a neighbouring state – e.g., the 2008 Georgian conflict. Yet its similarities with the forgotten Abkhazian conflict in 1992–1993 are not widely acknowledged. The principal aim of the study presented was to determine whether Abkhazia had the right to claim statehood and to examine Russia’s actions in support of the Abkhaz separatist forces during the conflict in 1992–1993. The author finds that the Abkhazians, similarly to the Crimean Russians, were not entitled to the right of external self-determination. The paper arrives at the conclusion that the fighting in Abkhazia in 1992–1993 may be categorised as an international armed conflict due to Russia’s direct military intervention.

Arms for education? External support and rebel social services

How does foreign support for rebel groups affect rebel governance of civilians during armed conflict? Existing studies primarily examine the local and domestic politics of rebel rule, leaving the effects of foreign intervention on rebel governance underexplored. Focusing on rebel provision of social services, this study considers two competing arguments. The first suggests that foreign sponsorship reduces rebels’ need to rely on local civilians for resources and hence decreases rebels’ incentives to provide services. The second anticipates that by augmenting rebels’ resources and military capabilities, foreign support increases their capacity to provide welfare services. These competing logics suggest that different types of foreign support have divergent effects on rebel social service provision. The article tests this theory using cross-sectional time-series data on external support for rebel groups and rebel governance for the post-1945 period. It finds that rebel groups that receive external funding, weapons or training are significantly more likely to provide education and health services to civilians. In contrast, direct military intervention to assist insurgent forces has no effect on rebel service provision. This article is among the first to systematically study the impact of external support and third-party intervention on rebel social service provision during civil war and holds implications for civilian welfare in contested territories.

US counterterrorism in the Sahel: from indirect to direct intervention

Abstract The massive expansion and evolution of United States security cooperation under the auspices of the ‘war on terror’ remains overlooked in the counterterrorism and interventions literature. The Sahel provides a useful region in which to explore the constitutive effects of such cooperation and its evolution because the US has always pursued an ‘economy of force’ mission there. In this article, I focus mainly on the constitutive effects of US indirect military intervention in the Sahel after 9/11, and subsequent more direct military intervention following the outbreak of civil war in Mali. The indirect intervention by the United States to build the capacity of local forces in Mali, where jihadists were based, failed because of the dissonant relationship between the two countries. This led the United States to intervene more directly in the region, including through its cooperation with and support for French and Nigerien forces. The nature of this more direct military intervention was also informed by evolving US experiences working by, with and through partner forces in other parts of the world.

Xi Jinping’s liberal birdcage: Democracy’s form and future in Hong Kong

As street demonstrations remain unresolved in Hong Kong (HK) and continue into 2020, this paper assesses the protesters’ demand for universal suffrage and governance reform in general. It recounts the path to the current stalemate on political rights for HK’s liberal authoritarian regime and, using Freedom House data, traces the growing threat to civil liberties posed by Beijing’s covert extra-legal activities. Finally, the paper enumerates the restraints that make direct military intervention unlikely, and suggests how the current demonstrations might end in the coming months. One innovation of this analysis is to add in the forgotten political variable of the Chinese Communist Party’s leadership, especially the role of the 2012 transition from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping.

El verdadero anticomunismo: Política, género y Guerra Fría en Costa Rica (1948–1973)

El verdadero anticomunismo: Política, género y Guerra Fría en Costa Rica (1948–1973)

Cyber security in the national security & defence sector of Ukraine: todayʼs challenges and ways to avoid possible threats

Development of strategic communications is necessary for the effective preparation and use of the Armed Forces, for the coordination of actions of state bodies in defence matters, as well as for the purpose of forming and strengthening the confidence of Ukrainian society in the stateʼs military policy. The basic elements of strategic communications of the Ministry of Defence and the Armed Forces are public relations, public relations in the military sphere, public diplomacy, information and psychological operations.
 In turn, one of the components of the information operations system is cyberspace actions. The strategic importance of actions in cyberspace is due to the fact that cyber threats today, with devastating consequences, pose no less danger than direct military intervention. In 2016, during the Summit of Heads of State and Government of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the first ever EU-NATO security cooperation agreement was signed, in particular on hybrid wars and cyberattacks. Cyberspace, along with land, air, sea, and space, has been recognized as a new operational space, and cyber-operations (cyberattacks) are an integral part of the hybrid war. Also, cyber weapons in terms of scale of successors are compared with weapons of mass destruction. In this regard, cyber security is one of the top priorities for the state.
 The article is devoted to the research of actual problems of providing the cyber security of the Armed Forces units of Ukraine in the current conditions of development of the information society and during hybrid threats from the Russian Federation side. The authors explain the basic concepts and definitions of the scientific field and explain conceptual approaches to cybersecurity and propose some ways to improve the existing cybersecurity mechanism or how to enhance it.

Pax Americana and the Dissolution of Arab States: The Humanitarian Consequences (1990–2019)

This article provides an assessment of three decades of US hegemony over the Arab-majority states of the Middle East's Gulf region. Since its direct military intervention in the 1990 war over Kuwait, the US increasingly engaged itself as an architect forging the region through deployment of its neoliberal economic and financial coercion, Janus-faced support for authoritarian regimes while promoting democracy, human rights and individual freedom rhetorically, as well as repeated direct military interventions into Arab states in an effort to bring about regime change. At the base of diplomatic and public justification for the 1990–91 intervention—or the Gulf War as it became known to Americans—was the assertion that the war was defensive in nature, protecting the territorial integrity of Kuwait as well as the enshrining the norms of non-intervention and the sanctity of borders. Over the following years, however, US military forces came to be active in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya with an expanded coterie of bases littered across the states of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Oman). While the US and its allies had been engaged in the region's politics throughout the Cold War, from 1990 through 2019, the US escalated its role to preside over regional politics through a hub-and-spoke latticework of relations between itself and regional states. From the perspective of nearly three decades since 1990, an appraisal of this coercive relationship, focusing on the humanitarian impacts it has wrought upon the region's peoples, suggests it has failed according to these criteria. Many of the region's peoples have experienced a marked decline in their economic well-being, personal safety and health, while the state apparatuses established following the retreat of European imperialism now lie in ruin in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen. The populations of these states now face a precarious future, without the protection of state institutions, against a range of predatory actors. Moreover, these actions have contributed toward the decline of US global influence, thereby encouraging further change in an environment where popular sovereignty and inputs into governance by regional peoples has been frustrated through the exercise of US power.