Direct Estimation Research Articles

Jackknife empirical likelihood for the correlation coefficient with multiplicative distortion measurement errors

In this paper, we consider the estimation problem of a correlation coefficient between two unobserved variables of interest that are distorted in a multiplicative way by some unobserved confounding variable. We investigate the direct plug-in estimator of the correlation coefficient. We propose using jackknife empirical likelihood (JEL) and its variations to construct confidence intervals for the correlation coefficient based on the estimator. The proposed JEL statistic is shown to be asymptotically a standard chi-squared distribution. We compare our methods to the previous empirical likelihood (EL) techniques of Zhang et al. (2014, ‘A Revisit to Correlation Analysis for Distortion Measurement Error Data’, Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 124, 116–129) and show the JEL possesses better small sample properties. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed estimator, and we also use our proposed methods to analyse the Boston housing data for illustration.

A novel hierarchical approach to insight to spectral characteristics in surface water of karst wetlands and estimate its non-optically active parameters using field hyperspectral data

Wetlands cover only around 6 % of the Earth's land surface, and are recognized as one of the three major ecosystems, alongside forests and oceans. The ecological structure and function of karst wetlands are unique due to the influence of geologic structure. At present, the unclear spectral morphology of surface water in karst wetlands poses a significant challenge in remote sensing estimation of non-optically active water quality parameters (NAWQPs). This study proposed a novel multi-scale spectral morphology feature extraction (MSFE) method to insight to spectral characteristics in surface water of karst wetlands, and further screen the sensitive features of NAWQPs. Then we constructed three remote sensing inversion strategies for NAWQPs (TN, TP, NH3_N, DO), including direct estimation, indirect estimation, and auxiliary estimation. Finally, we constructed a novel pH-based hierarchical analysis framework (pH_HA) to thoroughly explore the influence of alkalinity-biased characteristics of karst water on the spectral domain of NAWQPs and its estimation accuracy using in-situ hyperspectral data, respectively. We found that the spectral characteristics of karst waters at the first reflectance peak (580 nm) differed significantly from other water body types. The MSFE successfully captured the sensitive spectral domains for NAWQPs, and focused on between 500 and 600 nm and 900–960 nm. The sensitive features captured by MSFE improved estimation accuracy of NAWQPs (R2 >0.9). Direct estimation presented more stable performance compared to the auxiliary estimation (average RMSE of 0.366 mg/L), and the auxiliary estimation model further improved the retrieval accuracy of TN compared to direct estimation model (R2 increasing from 0.43 to 0.56). The novel hierarchical framework clearly revealed the notable changes in the sensitive spectral domains of NAWQPs under different pH values, and enabled more precise determination of spectral subdomains of NAWQPs, and identified the optimal spectral features. The pH_HA framework effectively improved the estimation accuracy of NAWQPs (R2 increased from 0.514 to over 0.9), and the estimation accuracies (R2) of four NAWQPs were all more than 0.9 when the pH value was over 8.5. Our works provide an effective approach for monitoring water quality in karst wetlands.

All thresholds barred: direct estimation of call density in bioacoustic data

Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) studies generate thousands of hours of audio, which may be used to monitor specific animal populations, conduct broad biodiversity surveys, detect threats such as poachers, and more. Machine learning classifiers for species identification are increasingly being used to process the vast amount of audio generated by bioacoustic surveys, expediting analysis and increasing the utility of PAM as a management tool. In common practice, a threshold is applied to classifier output scores, and scores above the threshold are aggregated into a detection count. The choice of threshold produces biased counts of vocalizations, which are subject to false positive/negative rates that may vary across subsets of the dataset. In this work, we advocate for directly estimating call density: The proportion of detection windows containing the target vocalization, regardless of classifier score. We propose a validation scheme for estimating call density in a body of data and obtain, through Bayesian reasoning, probability distributions of confidence scores for both the positive and negative classes. We use these distributions to predict site-level call densities, which may be subject to distribution shifts (when the defining characteristics of the data distribution change). These methods may be applied to the outputs of any binary detection classifier operating on fixed-size audio input windows. We test our proposed methods on a real-world study of Hawaiian birds and provide simulation results leveraging existing fully annotated datasets, demonstrating robustness to variations in call density and classifier model quality.

Landing Site Mapping and Selection with Quadtree Map Using Planar Elements

This work proposes a filter-based combined terrain mapping and landing site selection system for planetary landing. The authors consider a spacecraft acquiring flash lidar measurements of the surface during terminal descent from which it must select a landing site. A quadtree is used to create a variable-resolution map of the terrain in which each element contains a planar estimate. This greatly simplifies the landing site selection system by providing a direct estimate of terrain slope. The authors' system is validated with flight-test data gathered by a rocket-powered vehicle approaching an artificial lunar environment.

Hybrid Optimized LMMSE-Based Channel Estimation with Low Power Trellis Coded Modulation

Data transfer in a wireless channel environment is plagued by numerous security issues and power transmission loss. Channel state information is crucial to attaining the performance benefit of reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs) in wireless systems. Because of the Doppler effect, mobility makes accurate channel estimate (CE) more difficult. The parameter estimation approach is employed as an alternative to direct estimation in the channel matrix to address the aforementioned problems. Also, to lower the Mean Square Error (MSE) between the estimated and original channel, training-based CE, such as Linear Minimum Mean Square Error (LMMSE), and Least Square Error (LSE), are widely used in some wireless standards. To optimize the channel, certain intelligent optimized strategies are presented. For the Optimal CE, a Trellis Coded Modulation (TCM) with hybrid optimization in LMMSE has been provided. Moth amalgamated Elephant Herding Optimization (MAEHO) algorithm is the proposed hybrid optimization. Finally, the performance of the accepted model is determined in comparison to other existing techniques using a variety of metrics.

Bayesian predictive modeling for gas purification using breakthrough curves

This study proposes a predictive model for assessing adsorber performance in gas purification processes, specifically targeting the removal of chemical warfare agents (CWAs) using breakthrough curve analysis. Conventional parameter estimation methods, such as Brunauer-Emmett-Teller analysis, encounter challenges due to the limited availability of kinetic and equilibrium data for CWAs. To overcome these challenges, we implement a Bayesian parametric inference method, facilitating direct parameter estimation from breakthrough curves. The model’s efficacy is confirmed by applying it to H2S purification in a fixed-bed setup, where predicted breakthrough curves aligned closely with previous experimental and numerical studies. Furthermore, the model is applied to sarin with ASZM-TEDA carbon, estimating key parameters that could not be assessed through conventional experimental techniques. The reconstructed breakthrough curves closely match actual measurements, highlighting the model’s accuracy and robustness. This study not only enhances filter performance prediction for CWAs but also offers a streamlined approach for evaluating gas purification technologies under limited experimental data conditions.

Online prediction of the enzymatic hydrolysis efficiency of crop straw

The extent of removal of lignin and hemicellulose are crucial indicators for evaluating the efficiency of enzymatic hydrolysis of crop straw. Numerous factors influence these two indices. Establishing a quantitative model that correlates these factors with hydrolysis efficiency is essential, as it can guide efficient hydrolysis. In this study, a predictive method for enzymatic hydrolysis efficiency in crop straw was proposed using Grey relational analysis (GRA), Kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). The authors collected a dataset from actual production data and developed an efficiency predictive model using GRA for variable selection, KPCA for dimensionality reduction, and LSSVM for model training. This model allows for the direct estimation of the final enzymatic hydrolysis efficiency based on production condition variables, which can include enzyme amount, temperatures, pH, time, agitation, and straw dimensions. Extensive experimental testing validated the effectiveness of the proposed method, resulting in minimal errors, a high degree of fit, and exceptional performance. The methodology described in this study can serve as a foundation for optimising the design of efficient enzymatic hydrolysis production processes for crop straw. Additionally, it offers valuable soft measurements to support efficient control of the enzymatic hydrolysis process.

A Hierarchical Bayesian approach to small area estimation of health insurance coverage in Ethiopian administrative zones for better policies and programs

Sample surveys are extensively used to provide reliable direct estimates for large areas or domains with enough sample sizes at national and regional levels. However, zones are unplanned domains by the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) program and need more sample sizes to produce direct survey estimates with adequate precision. Conducting surveys in small areas (like zones) is too expensive and time-consuming, making it unfeasible for developing countries like Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aims to use the Hierarchical Bayes (HB) Small Area Estimation (SAE) model to estimate the Community-Based Health Insurance (CBHI) coverage at the zone levels in Ethiopia. To achieve this, we combined the 2019 Ethiopia Mini-Demographic and Health Survey (EMDHS) data with the 2007 population census data. SAE has addressed the challenge of producing reliable parameter estimates for small or even zero sample sizes across Ethiopian zones by utilizing auxiliary information from the population census. The results show that model-based estimates generated by the SAE approach are more accurate than direct survey estimates of CBHI. A map of CBHI scheme coverage was also used to visualize the spatial variation in the distribution of CBHI scheme coverage. From the CBHI scheme coverage map, we noticed notable variations in CBHI scheme coverage across Ethiopian zones. Additionally, this research identified areas with high and low CBHI scheme coverage to improve decision-making and increase coverage in Ethiopia. One of the novelties of this paper is estimating the non-sampled zones; therefore, the policymakers will give equal attention similar to the sampled zones.

Feasible Route to High-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Hydride Superconductivity.

A key challenge in materials discovery is to find high-temperature superconductors. Hydrogen and hydride materials have long been considered promising materials displaying conventional phonon-mediated superconductivity. However, the high pressures required to stabilize these materials have restricted their application. Here, we present results from high-throughput computation, considering a wide range of high-symmetry ternary hydrides from across the periodic table at ambient pressure. This large composition space is then reduced by considering thermodynamic, dynamic, and magnetic stability before direct estimations of the superconducting critical temperature. This approach has revealed a metastable ambient-pressure hydride superconductor, Mg_{2}IrH_{6}, with a predicted critical temperature of 160K, comparable to the highest temperature superconducting cuprates. We propose a synthesis route via a structurally related insulator, Mg_{2}IrH_{7}, which is thermodynamically stable above 15GPa, and discuss the potential challenges in doing so.

Spatial Bayesian distributed lag non-linear models (SB-DLNM) for small-area exposure-lag-response epidemiological modelling.

Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are the reference framework for modelling lagged non-linear associations. They are usually used in large-scale multi-location studies. Attempts to study these associations in small areas either did not include the lagged non-linear effects, did not allow for geographically-varying risks or downscaled risks from larger spatial units through socioeconomic and physical meta-predictors when the estimation of the risks was not feasible due to low statistical power. Here we proposed spatial Bayesian DLNMs (SB-DLNMs) as a new framework for the estimation of reliable small-area lagged non-linear associations, and demonstrated the methodology for the case study of the temperature-mortality relationship in the 73 neighbourhoods of the city of Barcelona. We generalized location-independent DLNMs to the Bayesian framework (B-DLNMs), and extended them to SB-DLNMs by incorporating spatial models in a single-stage approach that accounts for the spatial dependence between risks. The results of the case study highlighted the benefits of incorporating the spatial component for small-area analysis. Estimates obtained from independent B-DLNMs were unstable and unreliable, particularly in neighbourhoods with very low numbers of deaths. SB-DLNMs addressed these instabilities by incorporating spatial dependencies, resulting in more plausible and coherent estimates and revealing hidden spatial patterns. In addition, the Bayesian framework enriches the range of estimates and tests that can be used in both large- and small-area studies. SB-DLNMs account for spatial structures in the risk associations across small areas. By modelling spatial differences, SB-DLNMs facilitate the direct estimation of non-linear exposure-response lagged associations at the small-area level, even in areas with as few as 19 deaths. The manuscript includes an illustrative code to reproduce the results, and to facilitate the implementation of other case studies by other researchers.

RSUIGM: Realistic Synthetic Underwater Image Generation with Image Formation Model

In this paper, we propose to synthesize realistic underwater images with a novel image formation model, considering both downwelling depth and line of sight (LOS) distance as cue and call it as Realistic Synthetic Underwater Image Generation Model, RSUIGM. The light interaction in the ocean is a complex process and demands specific modeling of direct and backscattering phenomenon to capture the degradations. Most of the image formation models rely on complex radiative transfer models and in-situ measurements for synthesizing and restoration of underwater images. Typical image formation models consider only line of sight distance z and ignore downwelling depth d in the estimation of effect of direct light scattering. We derive the dependencies of downwelling irradiance in direct light estimation for generation of synthetic underwater images unlike state-of-the-art image formation models. We propose to incorporate the derived downwelling irradiance in estimation of direct light scattering for modeling the image formation process and generate realistic synthetic underwater images with the proposed RSUIGM, and name it as RSUIGM dataset . We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed RSUIGM by using RSUIGM dataset in training deep learning based restoration methods. We compare the quality of restored images with state-of-the-art methods using benchmark real underwater image datasets and achieve improved results. In addition, we validate the distribution of realistic synthetic underwater images versus real underwater images both qualitatively and quantitatively. The proposed RSUIGM dataset is available here.

Assessment of land use and land cover dynamics and its impact in direct runoff generation estimation using SCS CN method

Assessment of land use and land cover dynamics and its impact in direct runoff generation estimation using SCS CN method

Gaining a Seat at the Table: Enhancing the Attractiveness of Online Lending for Institutional Investors

This paper investigates the suitability of online loans as an investment through the lens of a portfolio optimization framework. We propose general characteristics-based portfolio policy (GCPP), a framework which overcomes unique challenges associated with building a portfolio of online loans. GCPP directly models the portfolio weight of a loan as a flexible function of its characteristics and does not require direct estimation of the distributional properties of loans. Using an extensive data set spanning over one million loans from 2013 to 2020 from LendingClub, we show that GCPP portfolios can achieve an average annualized internal rate of return (IRR) of 8.86% to 13.08%, significantly outperforming an equal-weight portfolio of loans. To assess the attractiveness of online loans, we then compare the performance of the GCPP portfolio to traditional investment vehicles including stocks, bonds, and real estate. The results demonstrate that a portfolio of online loans earns competitive or higher rates of return compared to traditional asset classes with limited comovement. These results indicate that online loans are an attractive novel asset class for investors. Together, we demonstrate that GCPP is an approach that can help platforms better serve both borrowers and lenders en route to growing their business.

Leveraging Routinely Collected Program Data to Inform Extrapolated Size Estimates for Key Populations in Namibia: Small Area Estimation Study.

Estimating the size of key populations, including female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM), can inform planning and resource allocation for HIV programs at local and national levels. In geographic areas where direct population size estimates (PSEs) for key populations have not been collected, small area estimation (SAE) can help fill in gaps using supplemental data sources known as auxiliary data. However, routinely collected program data have not historically been used as auxiliary data to generate subnational estimates for key populations, including in Namibia. To systematically generate regional size estimates for FSW and MSM in Namibia, we used a consensus-informed estimation approach with local stakeholders that included the integration of routinely collected HIV program data provided by key populations' HIV service providers. We used quarterly program data reported by key population implementing partners, including counts of the number of individuals accessing HIV services over time, to weight existing PSEs collected through bio-behavioral surveys using a Bayesian triangulation approach. SAEs were generated through simple imputation, stratified imputation, and multivariable Poisson regression models. We selected final estimates using an iterative qualitative ranking process with local key population implementing partners. Extrapolated national estimates for FSW ranged from 4777 to 13,148 across Namibia, comprising 1.5% to 3.6% of female individuals aged between 15 and 49 years. For MSM, estimates ranged from 4611 to 10,171, comprising 0.7% to 1.5% of male individuals aged between 15 and 49 years. After the inclusion of program data as priors, the estimated proportion of FSW derived from simple imputation increased from 1.9% to 2.8%, and the proportion of MSM decreased from 1.5% to 0.75%. When stratified imputation was implemented using HIV prevalence to inform strata, the inclusion of program data increased the proportion of FSW from 2.6% to 4.0% in regions with high prevalence and decreased the proportion from 1.4% to 1.2% in regions with low prevalence. When population density was used to inform strata, the inclusion of program data also increased the proportion of FSW in high-density regions (from 1.1% to 3.4%) and decreased the proportion of MSM in all regions. Using SAE approaches, we combined epidemiologic and program data to generate subnational size estimates for key populations in Namibia. Overall, estimates were highly sensitive to the inclusion of program data. Program data represent a supplemental source of information that can be used to align PSEs with real-world HIV programs, particularly in regions where population-based data collection methods are challenging to implement. Future work is needed to determine how best to include and validate program data in target settings and in key population size estimation studies, ultimately bridging research with practice to support a more comprehensive HIV response.

Pro+: Automated protrusion and critical shear stress estimates from 3D point clouds of gravel beds

AbstractThe dimensionless critical shear stress (τ*c) needed for the onset of sediment motion is important for a range of studies from river restoration projects to landscape evolution calculations. Many studies simply assume a τ*c value within the large range of scatter observed in gravel‐bedded rivers because direct field estimates are difficult to obtain. Informed choices of reach‐scale τ*c values could instead be obtained from force balance calculations that include particle‐scale bed structure and flow conditions. Particle‐scale bed structure is also difficult to measure, precluding wide adoption of such force‐balance τ*c values. Recent studies have demonstrated that bed grain size distributions (GSD) can be determined from detailed point clouds (e.g. using G3Point open‐source software). We build on these point cloud methods to introduce Pro+, software that estimates particle‐scale protrusion distributions and τ*c for each grain size and for the entire bed using a force‐balance model. We validated G3Point and Pro+ using two laboratory flume experiments with different grain size distributions and bed topographies. Commonly used definitions of protrusion may not produce representative τ*c distributions, and Pro+ includes new protrusion definitions to better include flow and bed structure influences on particle mobility. The combined G3Point/Pro+ provided accurate grain size, protrusion and τ*c distributions with simple GSD calibration. The largest source of error in protrusion and τ*c distributions were from incorrect grain boundaries and grain locations in G3Point, and calibration of grain software beyond comparing GSD is likely needed. Pro+ can be coupled with grain identifying software and relatively easily obtainable data to provide informed estimates of τ*c. These could replace arbitrary choices of τ*c and potentially improve channel stability and sediment transport estimates.

Anomalous Resistivity and Electron Heating by Lower Hybrid Drift Waves during Magnetic Reconnection with a Guide Field.

The lower hybrid drift wave (LHDW) has been a candidate for anomalous resistivity and electron heating inside the electron diffusion region of magnetic reconnection. In a laboratory reconnection layer with a finite guide field, quasielectrostatic LHDW (ES-LHDW) propagating along the direction nearly perpendicular to the local magnetic field is excited in the electron diffusion region. ES-LHDW generates large density fluctuations (δn_{e}, about 25% of the mean density) that are correlated with fluctuations in the out-of-plane electric field (δE_{Y}, about twice larger than the mean reconnection electric field). With a small phase difference (∼30°) between two fluctuating quantities, the anomalous resistivity associated with the observed ES-LHDW is twice larger than the classical resistivity and accounts for 20% of the mean reconnection electric field. After we verify the linear relationship between δn_{e} and δE_{Y}, anomalous electron heating by LHDW is estimated by a quasilinear analysis. The estimated electron heating is about 2.6±0.3 MW/m^{3}, which exceeds the classical Ohmic heating of about 2.0±0.2 MW/m^{3}. This LHDW-driven heating is consistent with the observed trend of higher electron temperatures when the wave amplitude is larger. Presented results provide the first direct estimate of anomalous resistivity and electron heating power by LHDW, which demonstrates the importance of wave-particle interactions in magnetic reconnection.

Evaluation of measured and calculated small dense low-density lipoprotein in capillary blood and association with the metabolic syndrome

Background and aimsSmall-dense-low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (sdLDL-C) is proatherogenic and not commonly measured. The aims were to evaluate capillary blood and its stability for sdLDL-C measurement and measure sdLDL-C in patients with metabolic syndrome (MS). Methods182 patients were studied (49 with MS). sdLDL-C was measured by electrophoresis (LipoPrint®), direct measurement (Roche Diagnostics) and Sampson equation. Intima-media thickness (IMT) and presence of atheroma was evaluated. sdLDL-C was compared in paired venous and capillary blood according to CLSI-EP09c (n = 40). sdLDL-C stability was studied after 24 h at room temperature (RT). ResultssdLDL-C in capillary blood and venous blood showed agreement with the direct measurement (bias: 4.17 mg/dL, LOA 95 %:−5.66; 13.99) and estimation (bias:8.12 mg/dL, LOA 95 %:−8.59; 24.82). sdLDL-C is stable in capillary blood for 24 h at RT. The electrophoretic method yielded lower (p < 0.05) sdLDL-C than the equation or direct measurement. Patients with MS had (p < 0.05) higher sdLDL-C (%) than patients without MS. Patients with atheroma plaques had higher sdLDL-C (p < 0.05). Estimated sdLDL-C correlated with IMT (r = 0.259, p < 0.001). ConclusionsCapillary blood is an alternative to venous blood for sdLDL-C measurement and is stable for 24 h after collection. Estimated and directly measured sdLDL-C associate with the MS being accessible tools for cardiovascular risk assessment.

Estimation of Lexisinatide in Bulk and Tablets by RP‐UPLC Method Developed by Quality by Design Concept

AbstractThe primary goal of the proposed study is to establish and validate a low‐cost, sensitive, reliable, and trouble‐free RP‐UPLC process with improved performance for the direct estimation of Lixisenatide in pure powder and fixed‐dose tablet form. The proposed method is optimized by implementing quality by design studies. The method is optimized using quadratic model of central composite design (CCD) of randomized response surface study. Successful separation of Lixisenatide is obtained by the use of Phenyl‐XBD (1.7 µm, 2.1 mm × 100 mm) column and a mobile phase of acetonitrile: 0.1% w/v OPA (60:40) with 0.5 mL min−1 flow rate. The separated Lixisenatide and its degradants are explorated with PDA detector which has the ability to provide comprehensive spectral information, rapid data acquisition, quantitative analysis, and peak purity analysis of all compounds simultaneously. The RT of Lixisenatide is found to be 1.34 min. The lowest concentration of Lixisenatide's limit of detection and limit of quantification makes guarantees regarding the method's sensitivity. For the provided range of linear concentrations (1.25–7.5 µg mL−1), the regression coefficient is found to be 0.999. The computed average percentage recoveries of Lixisenatide in spiked solutions ranged from 98.9% to 101.2%. The % degradation of Lixisenatide in the presence of a variety of forced conditions confirms the existing method's stability. Lixisenatide is significantly photo sensitive when compared to other stressful conditions such as acid, base hydrolysis, and oxidation. The proposed UPLC approach separates Lixisenatide with high sensitivity, a short retention time, and an affordable solvent system.

Optimal standoff distance for a highly focused microjet penetrating a soft material

A needle-free injector using a highly focused microjet has the potential to minimize the invasiveness of drug delivery. In this study, the jet penetration depth in a soft material—which is a critical parameter for practical needle-free injections—was investigated. We conducted jet penetration experiments by varying the inner diameter of the injection tube and the standoff distance between the meniscus surface and the soft material. Interestingly, the results showed that the penetration depths peaked at certain distances from the meniscus, and the positions shifted further away as the inner diameter was increased. By analyzing the velocity distribution of the microjet, the peak positions of the penetration depth and the maximum velocities were inconsistent due to the effects of the jet shape. To account for this, we introduce the concept of the “jet pressure impulse,” a physical quantity that unifies the velocity and jet shape. However, direct estimation of this parameter from experimental data is challenging due to limitations in spatiotemporal resolution. Therefore, we used numerical simulations to replicate the experimental conditions and calculate the jet pressure impulse. Remarkably, the results show that the jet pressure impulse has peak values, which is consistent with the penetration depth. In addition, there is a correlation between the magnitude of the jet pressure impulse and the penetration depth, highlighting its importance as a key parameter. This study underlines the importance of the jet pressure impulse in controlling the penetration depth of a focused microjet, providing valuable insights for the practical use of needle-free injection techniques.

Estimation of Forest Canopy Fuel Moisture Content in Dali Prefecture by Combining Vegetation Indices and Canopy Radiative Transfer Models from MODIS Data

Forest canopy fuel moisture content (FMC) is a critical factor in assessing the vulnerability of a specific area to forest fires. The conventional FMC estimation method, which relies on look-up tables and loss functions, cannot to elucidate the relationship between FMC and simulated data from look-up tables. This study proposes a novel approach for estimating FMC by combining enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and normalized difference moisture index (NDMI). The method employs the PROSAIL + PROGeoSAIL two-layer coupled radiation transfer model to simulate the vegetation index, the water index, and the FMC value, targeting the prevalent double-layer structure in the study area’s vegetation distribution. Additionally, a look-up table is constructed through numerical analysis to investigate the relationships among vegetation indices, water indices, and FMC. The results reveal that the polynomial equations incorporating vegetation and water indices as independent variables exhibit a strong correlation with FMC. Utilizing the EVI–NDMI joint FMC estimation method enables the direct estimation of FMC. The collected samples from Dali were compared with the estimated values, revealing that the proposed method exhibits superior accuracy (R2 = 0.79) in comparison with conventional FMC estimation methods. In addition, we applied this method to estimate the FMC in the Chongqing region one week before the 2022 forest fire event, revealing a significant decreasing trend in regional FMC leading up to the fire outbreak, highlighting its effectiveness in facilitating pre-disaster warnings.