Direct Effect Research Articles

ANALISIS PENGARUH OUTPUT TERHADAP PENDAPATAN USAHA PELINGGIH UKIRAN BIAS MELELA DI KECAMATAN SUSUT KABUPATEN BANGLI

The research objective is the effect of capital, work experience on output and the effect of capital, work experience and output on income and output to mediate the effect of capital and work experience on income in the Bias Melela Carving Pelinggih craft business in Susut District, Bangli Regency. The location of the research is in Susut District, Bangli Regency. The population in this study were craftsmen and entrepreneurs of the Bias Melela Carving Pelinggih craft in Susut District, Bangli Regency with a total of 216 people. Determination of the sample using the Solvin formula. The technique used in taking the number of research samples with the Accidental Sampling method. The methods used in collecting data are observation methods, structured interviews and in-depth interviews. The data analysis technique used consists of Descriptive Analysis, Path Analysis and Sobel Test. The results of the analysis show that: 1) Capital and work experience have a direct positive and significant influence on the output of the Bias Melela Carving Pelinggih Crafts business in Susut District, Bangli Regency. 2) Capital, work experience and output have a positive and significant direct effect on income in the Bias Melela Carving Pelinggih craft business in Susut District, Bangli Regency; 3) Capital and work experience have an indirect effect on income through output in the Bias Melela Carving Pelinggih craft business in Susut District, Bangli Regency.
 Keywords: Capital, work experience, output, income
 Klasifikasi JEL: D24,Z22 ,D57,H20,L31

Correlation and path-coefficient analysis in chrysanthemum (Chrysanthemum morifolium Ramat.)

A study was conducted to determine association between seventeen traits of twenty genotypes of chrysanthemum. The results revealed strong positive correlation of flower yield per plant with flower yield per plot, plant height at 60 days after transplanting and at full bloom, number of primary branches, plant spread (N-S and E-W direction), number of leaves per plant, stem girth and flowers yield per ha. The findings of path analysis revealed that flower yield per hectare, plant height at 60 days after transplanting, plant spread in E-W direction, stem girth, days to bud initiation, days to full bloom, fresh weight of flower and number of flowers per plant had positive direct effect on yield of flowers per plant. Hence, it is concluded from this study that flower yield can be increased by selecting these traits directly while formulating crop improvement program in chrysanthemum.

Pandemic Emotional Impact on Academic and Professional Worries while Controlling for Satisfaction with Life and Perceived Social Support

In this article, we test the associations between the Covid-19 pandemic’s emotional impact and academic and professional worries among social work students when controlling for life satisfaction as a part of subjective well-being and perceived social support. Therefore, we aim to test the controlling variables’ role as mediators in explaining how academic and professional worries can be reduced. The survey was conducted in Romania in 2021 on a sample of 329 students attending full-time courses in the field of social work, both bachelor’s studies and master. The study was cross-sectional but considered a causal orientation for the variables (i.e., past pandemic emotional impact – present social support and satisfaction with life – future academic and professional worries). The findings showed that although life satisfaction does not significantly determine academic and professional worries, perceived social support has a significant direct effect. Indirect effects indicate a decrease in academic and professional worry when controlling for perceived social support alone and while controlling for both perceived social support and satisfaction with life. Additionally, our findings show that students who were less emotionally impacted by the pandemic effects had no worries about their capacity to continue or complete their studies or their employment perspectives.

Latent class analysis of Chinese healthcare providers’ attitudes towards oocyte cryopreservation: a cross-sectional study

ObjectivesThe present study was designed to examine the attitudes towards oocyte cryopreservation among healthcare providers working in hospitals across specialties and potential influencing factors.DesignA cross-sectional study.SettingThe questionnaire was distributed among...

The political process in nations: Civil society participation and income inequality

AbstractThis study delves into the influence of civil society participation on income inequality, a topic that has received limited scholarly attention. Civil society participation refers to the activities of citizens who organize into various groups, known as civil society organizations, to pursue common interests and goals. These organizations span a wide range, including interest groups, labor unions, spiritual bodies engaging in civic or political activities, social movements, professional associations, charities, and other nongovernmental entities. Our research utilizes an extensive panel dataset, encompassing a global sample of countries from 1975 to 2019. We aim to comprehensively analyze the direct effects of civil society participation on income inequality. Our findings reveal that higher levels of civil society participation are effective in reducing inequality over the short, medium, and long term. These results have significant implications for policymakers. They suggest that encouraging and facilitating civil society participation could be a viable strategy for addressing income inequality. By understanding the dynamics of how civil society engagement influences economic disparities, policymakers can better design and implement measures that promote more equitable economic outcomes. This research contributes to the broader discourse on economic inequality and the potential role of civil society in mitigating it.

A positive feedback to climate change: The effect of temperature on the respiration of key wood-decomposing fungi does not decline with time.

Heterotrophic soil microorganisms are responsible for ~50% of the carbon dioxide released by respiration from the terrestrial biosphere each year. The respiratory response of soil microbial communities to warming, and the control mechanisms, remains uncertain, yet is critical to understanding the future land carbon (C)-climate feedback. Individuals of nine species of fungi decomposing wood were exposed to 90 days of cooling to evaluate the medium-term effect of temperature on respiration. Overall, the effect of temperature on respiration increased in the medium term, with no evidence of compensation. However, the increasing effect of temperature on respiration was lost after correcting for changes in biomass. These results indicate that C loss through respiration of wood-decomposing fungi will increase beyond the direct effects of temperature on respiration, potentially promoting greater C losses from terrestrial ecosystems and a positive feedback to climate change.

Mediated pathway from e-cigarette use to internalizing and externalizing mental health via polysubstance use among young adults

ABSTRACT Objective This study examined the mediated pathways from e-cigarette use to internalizing and externalizing mental health via polysubstance use among young adults. Methods Data were drawn from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health, a nationally representative longitudinal study. A total of 5,042 young adults (18–24 years at baseline) who had matched data from Wave 1 to Wave 5 (2013–2019) were analyzed. Within-subject mediation analysis along with a multilevel framework assessed the mediated pathways from between time-lagged exposure (e-cigarette use at t − 1 ), time-lagged mediator (polysubstance use at t ), and outcome variables (internalizing/externalizing mental health at t + 1 ). Results Path from e-cigarette use to polysubstance use to poorer internalizing problems showed appreciable proportion of mediation (total effect: b = 0.052, 95% CI = 0.019–0.087; direct effect: b = 0.035, 95% CI = 0.001–0.070; mediated effect: b = 0.017, 95% CI = 0.011–0.025 [proportion mediated 34.0%]). Similarly, polysubstance use partially mediated the associations between e-cigarette use and externalizing problems (total effects: b = 0.050, 95% CI = 0.014–0.084; direct effect: b = 0.034, 95%CI = −0.001–0.069; mediated effects: b = 0.016, 95% CI = 0.010–0.024 [proportion mediated: 32.7%]). Conclusions Our findings imply that e-cigarette use may be detrimental to young adults’ mental health and polysubstance use patterns, underscoring the need for discouraging them from e-cigarette use.

Probable sleep and awake bruxism in adolescents: A path analysis.

Bruxism has a multifactorial etiology, including the influence of sleep characteristics and chronotypes. To identify the pathways that influence the occurrence of probable sleep bruxism (PSB) and probable awake bruxism (PAB) in adolescents. A total of 403 adolescents, aged 12-19 years, participated in the study. Parents/caregivers filled out a questionnaire about sociodemographic issues and the adolescent's health conditions, and the adolescents about sleep characteristics, occurrence of bruxism (based on previous study and the International Consensus of Bruxism), and chronotype (Circadian Energy Scale). Clinical examinations were performed. Statistical analysis included descriptive analysis and path analysis. PSB and PAB are related to each other, with moderate and positive correlation (β = .390). Poor sleep quality and higher household income had a direct effect on both PSB (β = -.138; β = .123, respectively) and PAB (β = -.155; β = .116, respectively). Chronotype had a direct effect on PSB, in such a way that adolescents with a morningness chronotype tend to have PSB (β = -.102). Adolescents that drool on the pillow (β = .184) and/or have agitated sleep (β = .104) tend to have PSB. Poor sleep quality, household income, morningness chronotype profile, drooling on the pillow, and agitated sleep influence the paths taken by PSB. PAB was influenced by the quality of sleep and family income.

Assessment of Ferritin Level and Some Biochemical Variables in Iraqi Anemic Diabetic Mellitus in Both Gender

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a prevalent metabolic disorder characterized by elevated blood sugar levels caused by diminished tissue sensitivity to insulin, insufficient insulin production, or a combination of both factors. This is a non-communicable disease that is also highly prevalent globally. The aim of the study is to evaluate ferritin level and other biochemical variables in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients and study the effect of biochemical variables between male and female (T2DM) . Method involves enrollment of 120 participant divided into two main groups (T2DM and control group) and every group has been subdivided based on gender to (30 male and 30 female) for each group. All the groups studied for determination of anthropometric and biochemical parameters to evaluate the relationship between the studied parameters and T2DM patients. Results: the result showed that (Age, body mass index (BMI), Fasting blood sugar (FBS), triglycerides (TC), Urea, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and Ferritin) were significantly difference in T2DM patients (male and female) as compared with control. While ( TG and Creatinine) were non-significantly differ in T2DM patients as compared with control. Furthermore, there was non-significant difference in the studied parameters between T2DM males and females. Conclusion: from the obtained result it could be concluded that patients with T2DM have a problem associated with ferritin level that effected by T2DM and decreased because of the impaired renal dysfunction and red blood cells decrease and that causes a decrease in the level of ferritin. Age and BMI levels have a direct effect and correlated with elevation of lipid continents and high level of FBS and blood pressure. Renal function is highly elevated because of the T2DM complication, and it is conceder as a risk factor for T2DM.

Comparison of Different Impact Factors and Spatial Scales in PM2.5 Variation

PM2.5 particles with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm are receiving increasing attention in China. Understanding how complex factors affect PM2.5 particles is crucial for the prevention of air pollution. This study investigated the influence of meteorological factors and land use on the dynamics of PM2.5 concentrations in four urban agglomerations of China at different scales from 2010 to 2020, using the Durbin spatial domain model (SDM) at five different grid scales. The results showed that the average annual PM2.5 concentration in four core urban agglomerations in China generally had a downward trend, and the meteorological factors and land use types were closely related to the PM2.5 concentration. The impact of temperature on PM2.5 changed significantly with an increase in grid scale, while other factors did not lead to obvious changes. The direct and spillover effects of different factors on PM2.5 in inland and coastal urban agglomerations were not entirely consistent. The influence of wind speed on coastal urban clusters (the Pearl River urban agglomeration (PRD) and Yangtze River urban agglomeration (YRD)) was not significant among the meteorological factors, but it had a significant impact on inland urban clusters (the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) and Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration (CC)). The direct effect of land use type factors showed an obvious U-shaped change with an increase in the research scale in the YRD, and the direct effect of land use type factors was almost twice as large as the spillover effect. Among land use type factors, human factors (impermeable surfaces) were found to have a greater impact in inland urban agglomerations, while natural factors (forests) had a greater impact in coastal urban agglomerations. Therefore, targeted policies to alleviate PM2.5 should be formulated in inland and coastal urban agglomerations, combined with local climate measures such as artificial precipitation, and urban land planning should be carried out under the consideration of known impacts.

DEVELOPMENT OF FINANCIAL RISK HEDGING STRATEGIES

The purpose of the study is to develop the theory of hedging, generalize approaches to the formation of effective risk hedging strategies, and provide recommendations for the implementation of international banks' experience in Ukrainian practice. It is proved that in the process of choosing effective strategies, it is advisable to distinguish three types of financial risk hedging: a) operational hedging (balance sheet) to ensure operational flexibility; b) market hedging (external), which involves the use of derivatives as instruments to hedge profit volatility; c) contract hedging (contractual clauses, embedded derivatives. Based on the analysis of the reports of 250 banks, it was found that Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup are the market makers in the most developed US futures market. Horizontal analysis of the balance sheets of these banks showed that although the share of derivatives designated as hedging instruments is insignificant (less than 1%) relative to term contracts recognized as trading instruments, the hedging effect is significantly higher than the gains on the trading portfolio. It was found that in international practice, the dominant direction is the hedging of interest rate risk (the share of which varies between banks from 42.52% to 61.26%), in the structure of hedging instruments, interest rate swaps prevail. The share of currency derivatives varies from 18.67% to 41.45%. Interest rate risk is hedged by over-the-counter bilateral term contracts for active operations, currency risk hedging equally covers the risks of passive and active operations. The regression analysis revealed that private credit and trading assets have an inverse effect on regional hedging exposure, and debt instruments have a direct effect. The study provides a basis for assessing the potential of using innovative risk-hedging instruments by Ukrainian banks.

The enigma of fraud as a unique crime and its resonance for auditing research and practice: unlearned lessons of psychological pathways to fraud

Purpose This study aims to observe people’s decisions to commit fraud. This study is important in the current time because it provides insights into the development of fraudulent intentions within individuals. Design/methodology/approach The information used in this study is derived from semi-structured interviews, conducted with 16 high-ranking officials who are employed in Indonesian local government positions. Findings The study does not have strong evidence to support prior studies assuming that situational factors or social enablers have direct effects on fraud intentions. As suggested, individual factors which are related to moral reasoning (moral judgment and rationalisation) emerge as a consequence of social enablers. The significant role of that moral reasoning is to rationalise any fraud attempt as permissible conduct. As such, when an individual is capable of legitimising his/her fraud attempt into appropriate self-judgement, s/he is more likely to engage in fraudulent behaviours. Practical implications This study offers practical prescriptions in guiding the management to develop strategies to curb fraudulent behaviours. The study suggests that moral cognitive reasoning is found to be a parameter of whether fraud is an acceptable option or not. So, an understanding of observers’ moral reasoning is helpful in predicting the likelihood of fraud within an organisation or in detecting it. Originality/value This study provides a different perspective on the psychological pathway to fraud. It becomes a complement work for the fraud triangle to explain fraudulent behaviours. Specifically, it provides crucial insights into the underlying motivations that lead individuals to accept invitations to engage in fraudulent activities.

How does physical activity improve adolescent resilience? Serial indirect effects via self-efficacy and basic psychological needs.

Resilience is vital for improving mental health and well-being during adolescence, which is an important yet vulnerable period. Previous research has indicated that physical activity enhances individual resilience. However, limited studies have examined underlying psychological mechanisms between them. The current study aimed to investigate the effect of physical activity on adolescent resilience via self-efficacy and basic psychological needs. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 1,732 high school students aged 16 to 20 years old (mean age: 16.51 ± 0.77 years), with nearly equal number of boys (47.63%) and girls (52.37%). They each completed the Physical Exercise Questionnaire, Basic Psychological Needs in Exercise Scale, General Self-Efficacy Scale, and Resilience Scale, respectively. A serial indirect model was constructed to examine how physical activity influences resilience. Structural equation model analysis revealed that physical activity significantly and directly predicted resilience. When self-efficacy and basic psychological needs were included in the model, both direct and indirect effects were observed. Specifically, the positive relationship between physical activity and resilience was partially mediated by self-efficacy and basic psychological needs. In addition, basic psychological needs and self-efficacy were found to serially mediate the direct relathonship between physical activity and resilience. The present study provides novel theoretical insights into sports psychology by establishing a link between basic psychological needs and self-efficacy. The findings have implications for school administrators and physical education instructors in designing targeted interventions to promote adolescent resilience. These interventions may involve creating supportive environment conductive to fulfilling students' basic psychological needs, implementing strategies to enhance self-efficacy beliefs, and providing opportunities for skill development and mastery experiences in sports and physical activities.

Do spirituality and emotional intelligence improve the perception of the ability to provide care at the end of life? The role of knowledge and self-efficacy.

Spirituality, emotional intelligence, and palliative care (PC) knowledge have a positive and direct influence on self-efficacy and on perception of preparation and ability to provide end-of-life (EOL) care. The aim of this work is to propose a conceptual model that relates spirituality, emotional intelligence, PC knowledge, self-efficacy, and the preparation and ability to provide EOL care by doctors and nurses. Quantitative, exploratory, descriptive, and inferential study applied to doctors and nurses in a hospital in the north of Portugal, between May and July 2022. The data collection instrument includes a questionnaire. The relationships between latent variables were evaluated using structural equation models by the partial least squares method using the Smart PLS 3.0 software. It was obtained the previous authorization of the ethics committee. The results (n = 380) indicate that self-efficacy, spirituality, and PC knowledge have a positive influence on the ability to provide EOL care. Emotional intelligence and spirituality have a direct and positive effect on self-efficacy. There is no direct influence of emotional intelligence on the ability to provide EOL care, but emotional intelligence has an indirect effect mediated by self-efficacy. Spirituality, self-efficacy, and emotional intelligence are very important for the ability of doctors and nurses to provide EOL care. The identification of predictive factors of the ability to provide EOL care and the determination of the relationship between them can improve the provision of EOL care, reduction of health costs, timely and early referral of people to PC, and increase life quality.

The impact of corporate social responsibility on firm financial performance: does corporate governance matter?

Purpose This study investigated how corporate social responsibility (CSR) impacts financial performance (FP) and examined the moderated role of corporate governance (CG). In particular, this paper aims to empirically examine the impact of CG on the relationship between CSR and FP. Design/methodology/approach This study was based on a sample of 200 firms over 2010/2021. The direct and moderating effects were tested by using multiple regression techniques. Findings The empirical findings indicated that companies with higher levels of CSR reporting invested more effectively than companies with lower CSR reporting levels. The empirical analysis suggested two main findings: CSR has a significant effect on FP, and this relationship depends on CG practices. This research presents new evidence that improves the discussion around CSR involvement and FP in French firms. Then, this research shows that CG positively moderates the impact of CSR on corporate FP. Originality/value These findings may be of interest to academic researchers, practitioners and regulators interested in discovering dividend policies, FP and CSR. The findings may interest different stakeholders, policymakers and regulatory bodies interested in enhancing CG initiatives to strengthen CSR because it suggests implementing a broadly accepted framework of good CG practices to meet the demand for greater transparency and accountability.

The Structural Equation Modelling of First Level Health Facilities’ Performance-Based Capitation Payment in National Health Service

The BPJS Healthcare Security implemented performance-based capitation/Kapitasi Berbasis Kinerja(KBK) payments to conduct structured and ongoingmonitoring of the First Level Health Facilities/Fasilitas Kesehatan Tingkat Pertama(FKTP)'s performance throughout Indonesia. This study aimed to examinethe direct and indirect effects of FKTP capacity on KBK and FKTP performance. This study was conducted in February 2023, and Structural EquationModelling analysis was performed with secondary data from the BPJS Healthcare Security system database in 2021. Human resources were defined as theavailability of doctors in FKTP, infrastructure as credentialing value, ownership and type of FKTP, and KBK, and performance as first contact, non-specialistoutpatient referral ratios, and Chronic Disease Management Program/Program Pengelolaan Penyakit Kronis(Prolanis) participant ratio. The analytical resultsrevealed that human resources directly and positively affected the KBK. The indirect effect analysis results suggested that only human resources impactedFKTP performance. In conclusion, human resources are critical in achieving the KBK and FKTP performance.

Macrophage depletion damages hematopoiesis partially through inhibition of cell homing and expansion after hematopoietic cell transplantation

Bone marrow macrophages (Mφ) are essential components of the bone marrow niche that regulate the function of hematopoietic stem cells. Poor graft function and inhibition of hematopoietic production can result from abnormal macrophage function; however, the underlying mechanism is unclear. Clodronate liposomes (Clo-Lip) have been used widely to deplete macrophages and study their functions. Our previous results showed that Clod-Lip-mediated clearance of macrophages plays a vital role in regulating hematopoietic reconstruction after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). In this study, using an isogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation model, we found that Clod-Lip-mediated clearance of macrophages suppressed hematopoietic reconstruction by inhibiting the homing process of hematopoietic cells. We also demonstrated that macrophage depletion inhibited the direct supportive effect of macrophages on hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells and erythroid differentiation but promoted the production of megakaryocytic progenitors ex vivo. We showed that macrophages increase CD49e expression on hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs). However, CD49e inhibitors did not support the proliferative effect of macrophages on hematopoietic cells. In contrast, macrophage E-selectin/ intercellular cell adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) may be involved in directly regulating HSPCs. In conclusion, macrophage depletion with Clo-Lip partially disrupts bone marrow hematopoiesis after HCT by impeding donor cell homing and macrophage-HSPCs interactions.

Effect of adolescents’ cognitive and emotional empathy and altruistic behavior on psychological well-being

Objectives: This study sought to determine the mediating effect of altruism behavior in the relationship between cognitive and emotional empathy of adolescents affecting psychological well-being. In order to improve adolescents’ psychological well-being, which is a time when they experience rapid changes emotionally and physically, useful information on factors that affect psychological well-being can be provided.Methods: The subjects of the study were 282 teenagers aged 16 to 18 living across the country (136 men and 146 women) through online survey companies. Adolescents responded to questions on empathy, altruism, and psychological well-being. The collected data used Pearson's right-rate correlation analysis and structural equation models using SPSS 22.0 and AMOS 23.0 programs. After that, the statistical significance of the mediating effect was confirmed using the direct and indirect effect verification and bootstrapping method between variables.Results: The main findings are as follows. First, analysis of the correlation between research variables revealed a static correlation between emotional empathy and altruism behavior, altruism behavior and cognitive empathy, and psychological well-being and altruism. Next, as a result of examining the structural path between research variables, cognitive empathy and emotional empathy showed a significant correlation with altruistic behavior, and altruistic behavior showed a significant correlation with psychological wellbeing. Finally, cognitive empathy and emotional empathy influenced psychological well-being through altruistic behavior.Conclusion: Adolescents’ cognitive and emotional empathy affect psychological well-being through altruistic behavior. These results indicate that both cognitive and emotional empathy are not only helpful to others, but also play an important role in one’s own psychological adaptation and well-being. Adolescents not only express sympathy and empathy, but also pay attention to others’ feelings, which can become a factor that can actually lead to actions for others; furthermore, such actions can improve the happiness of individual adolescents. These findings revealed efforts to understand and sympathize with others is meaningful to enhance the happiness of ordinary adolescents in public education sites where competition is overheated, and happiness is reduced.

Harmonizing Aesthetics and Psychological Well-being: An Indepth Exploration of the Integrative Impact of Dysport in Cosmetic Procedures

This research delves into the intricate interplay between aesthetic intelligence, aesthetic sensitivity, and psychological well-being within the framework of positive psychology, with a particular emphasis on the integrative impact of Dysport in cosmetic procedures. By recognizing the significant influence of environmental aesthetics on individual health and well-being, this study seeks to illuminate the relationship between aesthetic intelligence and psychological well-being while considering the role of Dysport in cosmetic procedures. Employing a correlational research design, structural equation modeling was utilized as the methodological approach. The research cohort comprised all students enrolled at Bu-Ali Sina University during the academic year 2018-2019. Employing cluster sampling, 384 students were selected based on the recommended sample size for structural equation modeling. The instruments included the Ryff Well-being Scale, the Aesthetic Intelligence Scale developed by Rashid et al., and Abdulsalami's Aesthetic Sensitivity Scale. Findings revealed significant direct impacts of both aesthetic intelligence and aesthetic sensitivity on psychological well-being. Moreover, aesthetic intelligence demonstrated a direct and significant effect on aesthetic sensitivity. Exploration of indirect relationships indicated that aesthetic intelligence, mediated by aesthetic sensitivity, significantly influenced psychological well-being. These findings underscore the importance of individuals' awareness and appreciation of environmental beauty, including the role of Dysport in cosmetic procedures, in positively contributing to psychological well-being.

The impact of climate change and the conservation of the keystone Asian honeybee using niche models and systematic prioritization.

Global warming has seriously disturbed the Earth's ecosystems, and in this context, Asian honeybee (Apis cerana) has experienced a dramatic decline in recent decades. Here, we examined both direct and indirect effects of climate change on A. cerana through ecological niche modeling of A. cerana, and its disease pathogens (i.e., Chinese sacbrood virus and Melissococcus plutonius) and enemies (i.e., Galleria mellonella and Vespa mandarinia). Ecological niche modeling predicts that climate change will increase the potential suitability of A. cerana, but it will also cause some of the original habitat areas to become unsuitable. Outbreak risks of Chinese sacbrood disease and European Foulbrood will increase dramatically, while those of G. mellonella and V. mandarinia will decrease only slightly. Thus, climate change will produce an unfavorable situation for even maintaining some A. cerana populations in China in the future. Genetic structure analyses showed that the A. cerana population from Hainan Island had significant genetic differentiation from that of the mainland, and there was almost no gene flow between the 2, suggesting that urgent measures are needed to protect the unique genetic resources there. Through taking an integrated planning technique with the Marxan approach, we optimized conservation planning, and identified potential nature reserves (mainly in western Sichuan and southern Tibet) for conservation of A. cerana populations. Our results can provide insights into the potential impact of climate change on A. cerana, and will help to promote the conservation of the keystone honeybee in China and the long-term sustainability of its ecosystem services.