Direct Effects Of CO2 Research Articles

Disentangling regional climate change: assessing the contribution of global- and regional-scale anthropogenic factors to observed regional warming

Abstract While the influence of uniformly-distributed well-mixed greenhouse gas emissions on global warming is well-documented and robustly attributed through multiple lines of evidence, regional attribution remains more challenging and dependent on the performance and resolution of climate models. This study investigates the extent to which observed regional temperature trends are attributable to global-scale anthropogenic factors, mainly the direct effects of CO2, aiming to differentiate the portion of the change attributable to regional-scale drivers and local feedback mechanisms. To quantify the contribution of global- and regional-scale climate drivers to observed temperature change, I conducted regression analyses using the observed temperature change in HadCRUT4 and the global warming index derived from global radiative forcing series. Results indicate that in certain regions—specifically West Asia, East N. America, West Africa, and the Amazon— 62 ± 7%, 61 ± 13%, 58 ± 7%, and 61 ± 10% of the warming observed over 1991–2020 can be attributed to global anthropogenic warming, primarily the direct effects of CO2. The remaining portion, which represents 22 ± 8%, 21 ± 16%, 27 ± 9%, 23 ± 14% of the observed warming, is attributable to regional drivers. The Mediterranean showcases high sensitivity, with regional drivers contributing 31 ± 13% of the observed 1.2 ∘ C warming, amplifying the warming attributed to global anthropogenic drivers, estimated at 55 ± 10%. The Arctic Ocean along with the Russian-Arctic region exhibits a substantial contribution from regional drivers and local feedback mechanisms (the indirect effects of CO2) to the observed warming amplification, quantified at 43 ± 15% of the 3 ∘C warming over 1991–2020. Regional cooling drivers, however, are significant in East Asia and the Tibetan Plateau, with the latter experiencing a cooling contribution of − 42 ± 17%. By breaking down the contributions of climate drivers into global and regional-scale components, we gain valuable insights into the local climate mechanisms responsible for the observed regional warming, which is a crucial factor that affects agriculture, ecosystems and societies.

Effects of Elevated CO2 and O3 on Aboveground Brassicaceous Plant-Insect Interactions.

Atmospheric gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3), influence plant-insect interactions, with variable effects. The few studies that have investigated the direct effects of elevated CO2 (eCO2; 750-900 ppm) or elevated O3 (eO3; 60-200 ppb) on insects have shown mixed results. Instead, most research has focused on the indirect effects through changes in the host plant. In general, the lower nitrogen levels in C3 brassicaceous plants grown at eCO2 negatively affect insects and may result in compensatory feeding. Phytohormones involved in plant resistance may be altered by eCO2 or eO3. For example, stress-related jasmonate levels, which lead to induced resistance against chewing herbivores, are weakened at eCO2. In general, eCO2 does not affect herbivore-induced plant volatiles, which remain attractive to natural enemies. However, floral volatiles and herbivore-induced plant volatiles may be degraded by O3, affecting pollination and foraging natural enemy behavior. Thus, eCO2 and eO3 alter plant-insect interactions; however, many aspects remain poorly understood.

Impact of elevated CO2 on microbial communities and functions in riparian sediments: Role of pollution levels in modulating effects

The impact of elevated CO2 levels on microorganisms is a focal point in studying the environmental effects of global climate change. A growing number of studies have demonstrated the importance of the direct effects of elevated CO2 on microorganisms, which are confounded by indirect effects that are not easily identified. Riparian zones have become key factor in identifying the environmental effects of global climate change because of their special location. However, the direct effects of elevated CO2 levels on microbial activity and function in riparian zone sediments remain unclear. In this study, three riparian sediments with different pollution risk levels of heavy metals and nutrients were selected to explore the direct response of microbial communities and functions to elevated CO2 excluding plants. The results showed that the short-term effects of elevated CO2 did not change the diversity of the bacterial and fungal communities, but altered the composition of their communities. Additionally, differences were observed in the responses of microbial functions to elevated CO2 levels among the three regions. Elevated CO2 promoted the activities of nitrification and denitrification enzymes and led to significant increases in N2O release in the three sediments, with the greatest increase of 76.09 % observed in the Yuyangshan Bay (YYS). Microbial carbon metabolism was promoted by elevated CO2 in YYS but was significantly inhibited by elevated CO2 in Gonghu Bay and Meiliang Bay. Moreover, TOC, TN, and Pb contents were identified as key factors contributing to the different microbial responses to elevated CO2 in sediments with different heavy metal and nutrient pollution. In conclusion, this study provides in-depth insights into the responses of bacteria and fungi in polluted riparian sediments to elevated CO2, which helps elucidate the complex interactions between microbial activity and environmental stressors.

The Direct Radiative Effect of CO2 Increase on Summer Precipitation in North America

AbstractPrecipitation changes in full response to CO2 increase are widely studied but confidence in future projections remains low. Mechanistic understanding of the direct radiative effect of CO2 on precipitation changes, independent from CO2‐induced SST changes, is therefore necessary. Utilizing global atmospheric models, we identify robust summer precipitation decreases across North America in response to direct CO2 forcing. We find that spatial distribution of CO2 forcing at land surface is likely shaped by climatological distribution of water vapor and clouds. This, coupled with local feedback processes, changes in convection, and moisture supply resulting from CO2‐induced circulation changes, could determine North American hydroclimate changes. In central North America, increasing CO2 may decrease summertime precipitation by warming the surface and inducing dry advection into the region to reduce moisture supply. Meanwhile, for the southwest and the east, CO2‐induced shift of subtropical highs generates wet advection, which might mitigate the drying effect from warming.

Developing a Redox Network for Coastal Saltmarsh Systems in the PFLOTRAN Reaction Model

AbstractCoastal ecosystems have been largely ignored in Earth system models but are important zones for carbon and nutrient processing. Interactions between water, microbes, soil, sediments, and vegetation are important for mechanistic representation of coastal processes and ecosystem function. To investigate the role of these feedbacks, we used a reactive transport model (PFLOTRAN) that has the capability to be connected to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). PFLOTRAN was used to incorporate redox reactions and track chemical species important for coastal ecosystems as well as define simple representations of vegetation dynamics. Our goal was to incorporate oxygen flux, salinity, pH, sulfur cycling, and methane production along with plant‐mediated transport of gases and tidal flux. Using porewater profile and incubation data for model calibration and evaluation, we were able to create depth‐resolved biogeochemical soil profiles for saltmarsh habitat and use this updated representation to simulate direct and indirect effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on subsurface biogeochemical cycling. We found that simply changing the partial pressure of CO2 or increasing temperature in the model did not fully reproduce observed changes in the porewater profile, but the inclusion of plant or microbial responses to CO2 and temperature manipulations was more accurate in representing porewater concentrations. This indicates the importance of characterizing tightly coupled vegetation‐subsurface processes for developing predictive understanding and the need for measurement of plant‐soil interactions on the same time scale to understand how hotspots or moments are generated.

Robust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming

The lower tropospheric subtropical circulation (SC) is characterized by monsoons and subtropical highs, playing an important role in global teleconnections and climate variability. The SC changes in a warmer climate are influenced by complex and region-specific mechanisms, resulting in uneven projections worldwide. Here, we present a method to quantify the overall intensity change in global SC, revealing a robust weakening across CMIP6 models. The weakening is primarily caused by global-mean surface warming, and partly counteracted by the direct CO2 effect. The direct CO2 effect is apparent in the transient response but is eventually dominated by the surface warming effect in a slow response. The distinct response timescales to global-mean warming and direct CO2 radiative forcing can well explain the time-varying SC changes in other CO2 emission scenarios. The declined SC implies a contracted monsoon range and drying at its boundary with arid regions under CO2-induced global warming.

Carbon dioxide's direct impact on down-regulating the human species

Much is said about carbon dioxide (CO2) affecting climate; rising global temperatures, rising sea levels, and stagnating ocean currents being often cited results. Less is said about what CO2 does directly to human physiology should anthropogenic trends not abate. Past mass extinctions have been correlated to airborne CO2 levels rapidly rising above 1000 ppm (Ward, 2007); a value that may be seen by the end of this century. This study proposes as humankind confronts climate changes brought on by rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, as levels rise over 1000 ppm humans may also be inundated by the direct effects of CO2. While this has already been proposed by others, this study goes on to introduce a straight forward model for helping quantify the impact of airborne CO2 on human physiology which shows the onset of hypercapnic bloodstream pH levels in humans begin to appear when atmospheric CO2 levels approach 3000 ppm. However, upon examination of data from past submarine studies, a physiological response may occur in humans at much lower atmospheric CO2 levels due to a slow buildup of CO2 in the body over time. A casual link between atmospheric CO2 levels and the calcium balance in the human body is established providing rationale for the possibility of a greater occurrence of vascular calcification and concurrent bone demineralization in the greater general population when atmospheric CO2 levels rise. Noted is the likelihood of neurological effects at CO2 levels around 1000 ppm is suggested by several past studies. Note is also made of other organisms such as fish having much lower arterial pressures than humans making them more vulnerable to environmental CO2 changes as found by other studies. This study concludes CO2's direct impact to the human physiology as well as other life is not as benign as many like to suggest, and beyond climate change, appears as a mechanism for undermining human sustainability deserving closer scrutiny, and greater discussion.

Cascading effects augment the direct impact of CO2 on phytoplankton growth in a biogeochemical model

Atmospheric and oceanic CO2 concentrations are rising at an unprecedented rate. Laboratory studies indicate a positive effect of rising CO2 on phytoplankton growth until an optimum is reached, after which the negative impact of accompanying acidification dominates. Here, we implemented carbonate system sensitivities of phytoplankton growth into our global biogeochemical model FESOM-REcoM and accounted explicitly for coccolithophores as the group most sensitive to CO2. In idealized simulations in which solely the atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio was modified, changes in competitive fitness and biomass are not only caused by the direct effects of CO2, but also by indirect effects via nutrient and light limitation as well as grazing. These cascading effects can both amplify or dampen phytoplankton responses to changing ocean pCO2 levels. For example, coccolithophore growth is negatively affected both directly by future pCO2 and indirectly by changes in light limitation, but these effects are compensated by a weakened nutrient limitation resulting from the decrease in small-phytoplankton biomass. In the Southern Ocean, future pCO2 decreases small-phytoplankton biomass and hereby the preferred prey of zooplankton, which reduces the grazing pressure on diatoms and allows them to proliferate more strongly. In simulations that encompass CO2-driven warming and acidification, our model reveals that recent observed changes in North Atlantic coccolithophore biomass are driven primarily by warming and not by CO2. Our results highlight that CO2 can change the effects of other environmental drivers on phytoplankton growth, and that cascading effects may play an important role in projections of future net primary production.

Higher survival but smaller size of juvenile Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) in high CO2

Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) are the most valuable fishery on the U.S. West Coast and both larval and adult Dungeness crabs are important components of regional food webs. Previous experiments have shown decreased survival and a slower development rate for Dungeness crab zoea reared in water with high CO2, indicating a susceptibility to ocean acidification. In this study we reared late-stage megalopae and juvenile Dungeness crabs in both ambient and high CO2 conditions for over 300 days. Counter to expectations, crabs reared in high CO2 had a higher survival rate than those reared in ambient conditions and crabs in high CO2 transitioned more quickly in one of the stages (J5 to J6). However, crabs reared in high CO2 were generally smaller and had a higher resting metabolic rate than crabs in ambient CO2. We hypothesized that two separate mechanisms were in effect, with one process driving survival and a second process driving size and respiration rate. We further hypothesized that increased mortality in ambient CO2 could be caused by a CO2-sensitive microbial pathogen, but that size and respiration differences were caused by the direct effects of CO2 on the crabs themselves. Overall, the zoea stages seem more sensitive to CO2 than the megalopae and juvenile stages.

The Reciprocal Effect of Elevated CO2 and Drought on Wheat-Aphid Interaction System

Due to the rising concentration of atmospheric CO2, climate change is predicted to intensify episodes of drought. However, our understanding of how combined environmental conditions, such as elevated CO2 and drought together, will influence crop-insect interactions is limited. In the present study, the direct effects of combined elevated CO2 and drought stress on wheat (Triticum aestivum) nutritional quality and insect resistance, and the indirect effects on the grain aphid (Sitobion miscanthi) performance were investigated. The results showed that, in wheat, elevated CO2 alleviated low water content caused by drought stress. Both elevated CO2 and drought promoted soluble sugar accumulation. However, opposite effects were found on amino acid content—it was decreased by elevated CO2 and increased by drought. Further, elevated CO2 down-regulated the jasmonic acid (JA) -dependent defense, but up-regulated the salicylic acid (SA)-dependent defense. Meanwhile, drought enhanced abscisic acid accumulation that promoted the JA-dependent defense. For aphids, their feeding always induced phytohormone resistance in wheat under either elevated CO2 or drought conditions. Similar aphid performance between the control and the combined two factors were observed. We concluded that the aphid damage suffered by wheat in the future under combined elevated CO2 and drier conditions tends to maintain the status quo. We further revealed the mechanism by which it happened from the aspects of wheat water content, nutrition, and resistance to aphids.

Cysteine reduced the inhibition of CO2 on heterotrophic denitrification: Restoring redox balance, facilitating iron acquisition and carbon metabolism

The direct effect of CO2 on denitrification has attracted great attention currently. Our previous studies have confirmed that CO2 inhibited heterotrophic denitrification and caused high nitrite accumulation and nitrous oxide emission. Cysteine is a widely reported bio-accelerator; however, its effect on denitrification under CO2 exposure remains unknown. In this paper, the effect of cysteine on heterotrophic denitrification and its mechanisms under CO2 exposure were explored with the model denitrifier, Paracoccus denitrificans. We observed that total nitrogen removal increased from 17.9% to 90.4% as cysteine concentration increased from 0 to 50 μM, probably due to restoration of cell growth and viability. Further study showed that cysteine reduced the inhibition of CO2 on denitrification due to multiple positive influences: (1) regulating glutathione metabolism to eliminate intracellular reactive nitrogen species (RNS), while reducing extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) levels and altering its composition, ultimately restoring cell membrane integrity (2) facilitating the transport and metabolism of carbon sources to increase NADH production, and (3) increasing intracellular iron and up-regulating the expression of key iron transporters genes (AfuA, AfuB, ExbB and TonB) to restore the transport and consumption of electron. This study suggests that cysteine can be added to recover heterotrophic denitrification performance after inhibition by elevated CO2.

How Does Ocean Acidification Affect the Early Life History of Zostera marina? A Series of Experiments Find Parental Carryover Can Benefit Viability or Germination

Elevated partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) as a concomitant of global climate change may facilitate the establishment of future seagrass meadows and subsequently its benefit could be incorporated into techniques to increase restoration success. In five manipulative experiments, we determined how increased CO2 affects the maturation of flowers, and the development of seeds and seedlings for the foundation species Zostera marina. Experiments tested the development from both seeds collected from non-treated flowering shoots (direct) and seeds harvested from flowering shoots after CO2 exposure (parental carryover). Flowering shoots were collected along the western coast of Sweden near the island of Skafto. The seeds produced were used in experiments conducted at Kristineberg, Sweden and Dauphin Island, AL, United States. Experiments varied in temperature (16, 18°C) and salinity (19, 33 ppt), as well as duration and magnitude of elevated CO2 exposure. Flowering maturation, spathe number, seed production, and indicators of seed quality did not appear to be affected by 39–69 days of exposure to CO2 conditions outside of natural variability (pCO2 = 1547.2 ± 267.60 μatm; pHT = 7.53 ± 0.07). Yet, seeds produced from these flowers showed twofold greater germination success. In another experiment, flowering shoots were exposed to an extreme CO2 condition (pCO2 = 5950.7 ± 1,849.82 μatm; pHT = 6.96 ± 0.15). In this case, flowers generated seeds that demonstrated a fivefold increase in an indicator for seed viability (sinking velocity). In the latter experiment, however, germination appeared unaffected. Direct CO2 effects on germination and seedling production were not observed. Our results provide evidence of a parental CO2 effect that can benefit germination or seed viability, but early benefits may not lead to bed establishment if other environmental conditions are not well suited for seedling development. Outcomes have implications for restoration; CO2 can be supplied to flowering shoot holding tanks to bolster success when the purpose is to redistribute seeds to locations where beds are extant and water quality is adequate.

Feeding the world in a narrowing safe operating space

Feeding the world in a narrowing safe operating space

Lateral subsurface flow modulates forest mortality risk to future climate and elevated CO2

Forest mortality has been widely observed across the globe during recent episodes of drought and extreme heat events. But the future of forest mortality remains poorly understood. While the direct effects of future climate and elevated CO2 on forest mortality risk have been studied, the role of lateral subsurface water flow has rarely been considered. Here we demonstrated the fingerprint of lateral flow on the forest mortality risk of a riparian ecosystem using a coupled plant hydraulics-hydrology model prescribed with multiple Earth System Model projections of future hydroclimate. We showed that the anticipated water-saving and drought ameliorating effects of elevated CO2 on mortality risk were largely compromised when lateral hydrological processes were considered. Further, we found lateral flow reduce ecosystem sensitivity to climate variations, by removing soil water excess during wet periods and providing additional water from groundwater storage during dry periods. These findings challenge the prevailing expectation of elevated CO2 to reduce mortality risk and highlight the need to assess the effects of lateral flow exchange more explicitly moving forward with forest mortality projections.

The direct and interactive effects of elevated CO2 and additional nitrate on relative costs and benefits of legume-rhizobia symbiosis

Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) is likely to have important effects on growth and development of plants and on their relationship with symbiotic microbes. A rise in CO2 could increase demand by plant hosts for nutrient resources, which may increase host investments in beneficial symbionts. In the legume-rhizobia mutualism, while elevated CO2 is often associated with increased nodule growth and investment in N2-fixing rhizobia, it is yet unclear if this response depends on the mutualistic quality of the rhizobia. To test if host carbon allocation towards more-beneficial nodules are similar to less-beneficial (but still effective) nodules when plant N demand changes, we manipulated plant C and N status with elevated CO2 and additional nitrate. We used two isogenic Rhizobium etli strains that differ in their ability to synthesize an energy reserve compound, poly-beta-hydroxybutyrate (PHB), as well as their efficiencies for nitrogen fixation and nodulation rates, resulting in two Phaseolus vulgaris host groups with either large number of small nodules or small number of large nodules. The addition of nitrate negatively affected carbon allocation towards nodules, and elevated CO2 reversed this effect, as expected. However, this alleviation of nodule inhibition was greater on plants that started with greater numbers of smaller nodules. If smaller nodules indicate less-efficient or low-fixing rhizobia, this study suggests that increased demand for nitrogen in the face of elevated CO2 has the potential to disproportionately favor less-beneficial strains and increase variation of nitrogen fixation quality among rhizobia.

Characterization of the Skeletal Muscle Microvascular Blood Flow Response to Tissue CO 2 Perturbations using a Gas Exchange Chamber

Objective To characterize the skeletal muscle microvascular blood flow response to changing tissue carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations directly imposed using a microfluidic gas exchange chamber. Methods Eight male Sprague-Dawley rats (145-187g) were anaesthetized using sodium pentobarbital via an intraperitoneal injection. Cannulas were introduced into the left common carotid artery and right jugular vein for blood pressure and heart rate monitoring, administration of maintenance anaesthetic, and fluid resuscitation. The animal was then tracheotomized and mechanically ventilated. The extensor digitorum longus muscle of the right hindlimb was isolated, externalized, and reflected over a microfluidic gas exchange chamber set into the stage of an inverted Olympus IX73 microscope for in vivo visualization of blood flow. The muscle was allowed to equilibrate for 30 minutes before blood sampling and exposure to various gas levels. Using computer-controlled mass flow meters, the muscle was equilibrated with incremental levels of CO2 (0-10%) while maintaining a constant O2 state. One-minute intravital video microscopy sequences of the microcirculation were recorded at a range of CO2 levels (0-10%) while maintaining a constant O2 level. Analysis of hemodynamic variables, red blood cell (RBC) velocity, RBC supply rate (SR), RBC oxygen saturation (SO2), and hematocrit, was conducted offline using custom MATLAB software. Results Both the mean RBC velocity and SR increased incrementally as the CO2 increased. The graded increase of both parameters was significant between the low CO2 levels (0-2%) and moderate-high levels (4-10%); however, there was no significant difference between a physiologically relevant CO2 (5%) and elevated CO2 levels (6-10%) (See Figures 1A & 1B). The graded increase in CO2 had no significant impact on capillary SO2 or hematocrit (See Figures 1C & 1D). Conclusion The preliminary findings of the present study demonstrate the local CO2-sensitivity of the skeletal muscle microvascular system using a novel experimental technique. An expected graded increase in RBC velocity and SR were observed as CO2 increased; however, the lack of significant change following exposure to elevated CO2 suggests a higher relative sensitivity of the microvascular system to changes at low tissue CO2 concentrations. The observed invariance of SO2 at varying CO2 gas concentrations also suggests that local CO2-mediated blood flow regulation is not a result of RBC O2 saturation dependent ATP release. Direct effects of CO2 and the resulting change in pH are known to modulate microvascular blood flow, though the underlying mechanisms of CO2-mediated regulation remain to be defined.

Deterministic and Stochastic Cellular Mechanisms Contributing to Carbon Monoxide Induced Ventricular Arrhythmias.

Chronic exposure to low levels of Carbon Monoxide is associated with an increased risk of cardiac arrhythmia. Microelectrode recordings from rat and guinea pig single isolated ventricular myocytes exposed to CO releasing molecule CORM-2 and excited at 0.2/s show repolarisation changes that develop over hundreds of seconds: action potential prolongation by delayed repolarisation, EADs, multiple EADs and oscillations around the plateau, leading to irreversible repolarisation failure. The measured direct effects of CO on currents in these cells, and ion channels expressed in mammalian systems showed an increase in prolonged late Na+, and a decrease in the maximal T- and L-type Ca++. peak and late Na+, ultra-rapid delayed, delayed rectifier, and the inward rectifier K+ currents. Incorporation of these CO induced changes in maximal currents in ventricular cell models; (Gattoni et al., J. Physiol., 2016, 594, 4193–4224) (rat) and (Luo and Rudy, Circ. Res., 1994, 74, 1071–1096) (guinea-pig) and human endo-, mid-myo- and epi-cardial (O’Hara et al., PLoS Comput. Biol., 2011, 7, e1002061) models, by changes in maximal ionic conductance reproduces these repolarisation abnormalities. Simulations of cell populations with Gaussian distributions of maximal conductance parameters predict a CO induced increase in APD and its variability. Incorporation of these predicted CO induced conductance changes in human ventricular cell electrophysiology into ventricular tissue and wall models give changes in indices for the probability of the initiation of re-entrant arrhythmia.

Designing a Radiative Antidote to CO2

AbstractSolar radiation modification (SRM) reduces the CO2‐induced change to the mean global hydrological cycle disproportionately more than it reduces the CO2‐induced increase in mean surface temperature. Thus, if SRM were used to offset all CO2‐induced mean warming, global‐mean precipitation would be less than in an unperturbed climate. Here, we show that the mismatch between the mean hydrological effects of CO2 and SRM may partly be alleviated by spectrally tuning the SRM intervention (reducing insolation at some wavelengths more than others). By concentrating solar dimming at near‐infrared wavelengths, where H2O has strong absorption bands, the direct effect of CO2 on the tropospheric energy budget can be offset, which minimizes perturbations to the mean hydrological cycle. Idealized cloud‐resolving simulations of radiative‐convective equilibrium confirm that spectrally tuned SRM can simultaneously maintain mean surface temperature and precipitation at their unperturbed values even as large quantities of CO2 are added to the atmosphere.

Solar geoengineering may not prevent strong warming from direct effects of CO2 on stratocumulus cloud cover

Discussions of countering global warming with solar geoengineering assume that warming owing to rising greenhouse-gas concentrations can be compensated by artificially reducing the amount of sunlight Earth absorbs. However, solar geoengineering may not be fail-safe to prevent global warming because CO2 can directly affect cloud cover: It reduces cloud cover by modulating the longwave radiative cooling within the atmosphere. This effect is not mitigated by solar geoengineering. Here, we use idealized high-resolution simulations of clouds to show that, even under a sustained solar geoengineering scenario with initially only modest warming, subtropical stratocumulus clouds gradually thin and may eventually break up into scattered cumulus clouds, at concentrations exceeding 1,700 parts per million (ppm). Because stratocumulus clouds cover large swaths of subtropical oceans and cool Earth by reflecting incident sunlight, their loss would trigger strong (about 5 K) global warming. Thus, the results highlight that, at least in this extreme and idealized scenario, solar geoengineering may not suffice to counter greenhouse-gas-driven global warming.

Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies.

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high-resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant-physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between -8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and -22 to -6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large-scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.